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Patricia de Winter and Peter Cahusac

STARTING OUT
IN STATISTICS
An Introduction for Students of
Human Health, Disease, and Psychology
Starting Out in Statistics
Starting Out in Statistics
An Introduction for Students of Human Health,
Disease, and Psychology

Patricia de Winter
University College London, UK

Peter M. B. Cahusac
Alfaisal University, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
This edition first published 2014 C ⃝ 2014 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Registered office: John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex,
PO19 8SQ, UK

Editorial offices: 9600 Garsington Road, Oxford, OX4 2DQ, UK

The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, UK
111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030-5774, USA

For details of our global editorial offices, for customer services and for information about how to
apply for permission to reuse the copyright material in this book please see our website at
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The right of the author to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted in accordance
with the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or
transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

De Winter, Patricia, 1968–

Starting out in statistics : an introduction for students of human health, disease and psychology /
Patricia de Winter and Peter Cahusac.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-118-38402-2 (hardback) – ISBN 978-1-118-38401-5 (paper) 1. Medical
statistics–Textbooks. I. Cahusac, Peter, 1957– II. Title.
RA409.D43 2014
610.2′ 1–dc23
2014013803

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print
may not be available in electronic books.

Set in 10.5/13pt Times Ten by Aptara Inc., New Delhi, India

1 2014
 To Glenn, who taught me Statistics
Patricia de Winter

Dedicated to the College of Medicine,

Alfaisal University, Riyadh
Peter M. B. Cahusac
Contents

Introduction – What’s the Point of Statistics? xiii

Basic Maths for Stats Revision xv
Statistical Software Packages xxiii
About the Companion Website xxv

1 Introducing Variables, Populations and Samples – ‘Variability is

the Law of Life’ 1
1.1 Aims 1
1.2 Biological data vary 1
1.3 Variables 3
1.4 Types of qualitative variables 4
1.4.1 Nominal variables 4
1.4.2 Multiple response variables 4
1.4.3 Preference variables 5
1.5 Types of quantitative variables 5
1.5.1 Discrete variables 5
1.5.2 Continuous variables 6
1.5.3 Ordinal variables – a moot point 6
1.6 Samples and populations 6
1.7 Summary 10
Reference 10

2 Study Design and Sampling – ‘Design is Everything. Everything!’ 11

2.1 Aims 11
2.2 Introduction 11
2.3 One sample 13
2.4 Related samples 13
2.5 Independent samples 14
2.6 Factorial designs 15
viii CONTENTS

2.7 Observational study designs 17

2.7.1 Cross-sectional design 17
2.7.2 Case-control design 17
2.7.3 Longitudinal studies 18
2.7.4 Surveys 18
2.8 Sampling 19
2.9 Reliability and validity 20
2.10 Summary 21
References 23

3 Probability – ‘Probability ... So True in General’ 25

3.1 Aims 25
3.2 What is probability? 25
3.3 Frequentist probability 26
3.4 Bayesian probability 31
3.5 The likelihood approach 35
3.6 Summary 36
References 37

4 Summarising Data – ‘Transforming Data into Information’ 39

4.1 Aims 39
4.2 Why summarise? 39
4.3 Summarising data numerically – descriptive statistics 41
4.3.1 Measures of central location 41
4.3.2 Measures of dispersion 47
4.4 Summarising data graphically 54
4.5 Graphs for summarising group data 55
4.5.1 The bar graph 55
4.5.2 The error plot 56
4.5.3 The box-and-whisker plot 57
4.5.4 Comparison of graphs for group data 58
4.5.5 A little discussion on error bars 59
4.6 Graphs for displaying relationships between variables 59
4.6.1 The scatter diagram or plot 60
4.6.2 The line graph 62
4.7 Displaying complex (multidimensional) data 63
4.8 Displaying proportions or percentages 64
4.8.1 The pie chart 64
4.8.2 Tabulation 64
4.9 Summary 66
References 66

5 Statistical Power – ‘. . . Find out the Cause of this Effect’ 67

5.1 Aims 67
5.2 Power 67
5.3 From doormats to aortic valves 70
 CONTENTS ix

5.4 More on the normal distribution 72

5.4.1 The central limit theorem 77
5.5 How is power useful? 79
5.5.1 Calculating the power 80
5.5.2 Calculating the sample size 82
5.6 The problem with p values 84
5.7 Confidence intervals and power 85
5.8 When to stop collecting data 87
5.9 Likelihood versus null hypothesis testing 88
5.10 Summary 91
References 92

6 Comparing Groups using t-Tests and ANOVA – ‘To Compare

is not to Prove’ 93
6.1 Aims 93
6.2 Are men taller than women? 94
6.3 The central limit theorem revisited 97
6.4 Student’s t-test 98
6.4.1 Calculation of the pooled standard deviation 102
6.4.2 Calculation of the t statistic 103
6.4.3 Tables and tails 104
6.5 Assumptions of the t-test 107
6.6 Dependent t-test 109
6.7 What type of data can be tested using t-tests? 110
6.8 Data transformations 110
6.9 Proof is not the answer 111
6.10 The problem of multiple testing 111
6.11 Comparing multiple means – the principles of analysis of variance 112
6.11.1 Tukey’s honest significant difference test 120
6.11.2 Dunnett’s test 121
6.11.3 Accounting for identifiable sources of error in one-way ANOVA:
nested design 123
6.12 Two-way ANOVA 126
6.12.1 Accounting for identifiable sources of error using a two-way
ANOVA: randomised complete block design 130
6.12.2 Repeated measures ANOVA 133
6.13 Summary 133
References 134

7 Relationships between Variables: Regression and Correlation –

‘In Relationships . . . Concentrate only on what is most Significant
and Important’ 135
7.1 Aims 135
7.2 Linear regression 136
7.2.1 Partitioning the variation 139
7.2.2 Calculating a linear regression 141
x CONTENTS

7.2.3 Can weight be predicted by height? 145

7.2.4 Ordinary least squares versus reduced major axis regression 152
7.3 Correlation 153
7.3.1 Correlation or linear regression? 154
7.3.2 Covariance, the heart of correlation analysis 154
7.3.3 Pearson’s product–moment correlation coefficient 156
7.3.4 Calculating a correlation coefficient 157
7.3.5 Interpreting the results 159
7.3.6 Correlation between maternal BMI and infant birth weight 160
7.3.7 What does this correlation tell us and what does it not? 161
7.3.8 Pitfalls of Pearson’s correlation 162
7.4 Multiple regression 164
7.5 Summary 174
References 174

8 Analysis of Categorical Data – ‘If the Shoe Fits . . . ’ 175

8.1 Aims 175
8.2 One-way chi-squared 175
8.3 Two-way chi-squared 179
8.4 The odds ratio 186
8.5 Summary 191
References 192

9 Non-Parametric Tests – ‘An Alternative to other Alternatives’ 193

9.1 Aims 193
9.2 Introduction 193
9.3 One sample sign test 195
9.4 Non-parametric equivalents to parametric tests 199
9.5 Two independent samples 199
9.6 Paired samples 203
9.7 Kruskal–Wallis one-way analysis of variance 207
9.8 Friedman test for correlated samples 211
9.9 Conclusion 214
9.10 Summary 214
References 215

10 Resampling Statistics comes of Age – ‘There’s always a Third Way’ 217

10.1 Aims 217
10.2 The age of information 217
10.3 Resampling 218
10.3.1 Randomisation tests 219
10.3.2 Bootstrapping 222
10.3.3 Comparing two groups 227
 CONTENTS xi

10.4 An introduction to controlling the false discovery rate 229

10.5 Summary 231
References 231

Appendix A: Data Used for Statistical Analyses (Chapters 6,7

and 10) 233
Appendix B: Statistical Software Outputs (Chapters 6–9) 243
Index 279
Introduction – What’s the
Point of Statistics?

Humans, along with other biological creatures, are complicated. The more
we discover about our biology: physiology, health, disease, interactions, rela-
tionships, behaviour, the more we realise that we know very little about our-
selves. As Professor Steve Jones, UCL academic, author and geneticist, once
said ‘a six year old knows everything, because he knows everything he needs
to know’. Young children have relatively simple needs and limited awareness
of the complexity of life. As we age we realise that the more we learn, the less
we know, because we learn to appreciate how much is as yet undiscovered.
The sequencing of the human genome at the beginning of this millennium was
famously heralded as ‘Without a doubt the most important, most wondrous
map ever produced by mankind’ by the then US President, Bill Clinton. Now
we are starting to understand that there are whole new levels of complex-
ity that control the events encoded in the four bases that constitute our DNA,
from our behaviour to our susceptibility to disease. Sequencing of the genome
has complicated our view of ourselves, not simplified it.
Statistics is not simply number-crunching; it is a key to help us decipher
the data we collect. In this new age of information and increased comput-
ing power, in which huge data sets are generated, the demand for Statistics is
greater, not diminished. Ronald Aylmer Fisher, one of the founding fathers
of Statistics, defined its uses as threefold: (1) to study populations, (2) to study
variation and (3) to reduce complexity (Fisher, 1948). These aims are as appli-
cable today as they were then, and perhaps the third is even more so.
We intend this book to be mostly read from beginning to end rather than
simply used as a reference for information about a specific statistical test. With
this objective, we will use a conceptual approach to explain statistical tests and
although formulae are introduced in some sections, the meaning of the math-
ematical shorthand is fully explained in plain English. Statistics is a branch
of applied mathematics so it is not possible to gain a reasonable depth of
xiv INTRODUCTION

understanding without doing some maths; however, the most complicated

thing you will be asked to do is to find a square root. Even a basic calcula-
tor will do this for you, as will any spreadsheet. Other than this you will not
need to do anything more complex than addition, subtraction, multiplication
and division. For example, calculating the arithmetic mean of a series of num-
bers involves only adding them together and dividing by however many num-
bers you have in the series: the arithmetic mean of 3, 1, 5, 9 is these numbers
added together, which equals 18 and this is then divided by 4, which is 4.5.
There, that’s just addition and division and nothing more. If you can perform
the four basic operations of addition, subtraction, multiplication and division
and use a calculator or Excel, you can compute any equation in this book.
If your maths is a bit rusty, we advise that you refer to the basic maths for
stats section.
Learning statistics requires mental effort on the part of the learner. As with
any subject, we can facilitate learning, but we cannot make the essential con-
nections in your brain that lead to understanding. Only you can do that. To
assist you in this, wherever possible we have tried to use examples that are
generally applicable and readily understood by all irrespective of discipline
being studied. We are aware, however, that students prefer examples that
are pertinent to their own discipline. This book is aimed at students study-
ing human-related sciences, but we anticipate that it may be read by others.
As we cannot write a book to suit the interests of every individual or disci-
pline, if you are an ecologist, for example, and do not find the relationship
between maternal body mass index and infant birth weight engaging, then
substitute these variables for ones that are interesting to you, such as rainfall
and butterfly numbers.
Finally, we aim to explain how statistics can allow us to decide whether the
effects we observe are simply due to random variation or a real effect of an
intervention, or phenomenon that we are testing. Put simply, statistics helps
us to see the wood in spite of the trees.

Patricia de Winter and Peter M. B. Cahusac

Reference
Fisher, R.A. (1948) Statistical Methods for Research Workers, 10th Edition. Edinburgh:
Oliver and Boyd.
Basic Maths for
Stats Revision

If your maths is a little rusty, you may find this short revision section help-
ful. Also explained here are mathematical terms with which you may be less
familiar, so it is likely worthwhile perusing this section initially or referring
back to it as required when you are reading the book.
Most of the maths in this book requires little more than addition, subtrac-
tion, multiplication and division. You will occasionally need to square a num-
ber or take a square root, so the first seven rows of Table A are those with
which you need to be most familiar. While you may be used to using ÷ to
represent division, it is more common to use / in science. Furthermore, mul-
tiplication is not usually represented by × to avoid confusion with the letter
x, but rather by an asterisk (or sometimes a half high dot ⋅, but we prefer the
asterisk as it’s easier to see. The only exception to this is when we have occa-
sionally written numbers in scientific notation, where it is widely accepted to
use x as the multiplier symbol. Sometimes the multiplication symbol is implied
rather than printed: ab in a formula means multiply the value of a by the value
of b. Mathematicians love to use symbols as shorthand because writing things
out in words becomes very tedious, although it may be useful for the inexpe-
rienced. We have therefore explained in words what we mean when we have
used an equation. An equation is a set of mathematical terms separated by an
equals sign, meaning that the total number on one side of = must be the same
as that on the other.

Arithmetic
When sequence matters
The sequence of addition or multiplication does not alter a result, 2 + 3 is the
same as 3 + 2 and 2 ∗ 3 is the same as 3 ∗ 2.
The sequence of subtraction or division does alter the result, 5 − 1 = 4 but
1 − 5 = −4, or 4 ∕ 2 = 2 but 2 ∕ 4 = 0.5.
xvi BASIC MATHS FOR STATS REVISION

Table A Basic mathematical or statistical calculations and the commands required to perform
them in Microsoft Excel where a and b represent any number, or cells containing those
numbers. The Excel commands are not case sensitive
Function Symbol Excel command Comments
Addition + =a+b Alternatively use the Σ function
to add up many numbers in one
operation
Subtraction − =a−b
Multiplication ∗ =a∗b
Division / =a∕b
Sum Σ = Σ(a:b) Seea for meaning of (a:b)
Square a2 = aˆ2 Alternatively you may use = a ∗ a
√
Square root = sqrt(a)
Arithmetic mean x̄ = average(a:b) Seea for meaning of (a:b)
Standard deviation s = stdev(a:b)
Standard error of SEM = stdev(a:b)/sqrt(n) Where n = the number of
the mean observations and seea for meaning
of (a:b)
Geometric mean = geomean(a:b) Seea for meaning of (a:b)
Logarithm (base 10) log10 = log10(a)
Natural logarithm ln = ln(a) The natural log uses base e, which
is 2.71828 to 5 decimal places
Logarithm (any loga = log(a,[base]) Base 2 is commonly used in some
base) genomics applications
Arcsine asin = asin(a) Sometimes used to transform
percentage data
Inverse normal = invsnorm(probability) Returns the inverse of the
cumulative standard normal cumulative
distribution distribution. Use to find z-value
for a probability (usually 0.975)
a Placethe cursor within the brackets and drag down or across to include the range of cells whose content
you wish to include in the calculation.

Decimal fractions, proportions and negative numbers

A decimal fraction is a number that is not a whole number and has a value
greater than zero, for example, 0.001 or 1.256.
Where numbers are expressed on a scale between 0 and 1 they are called
proportions. For example, to convert 2, 8 and 10 to proportions, add them
together and divide each by the total to give 0.1, 0.4 and 0.5 respectively:

2 + 8 + 10 = 20
2 ∕ 20 = 0.1
8 ∕ 20 = 0.4
10 ∕ 20 = 0.5
 BASIC MATHS FOR STATS REVISION xvii

Proportions can be converted to percentages by multiplying them by 100:

2 ∕ 20 = 0.1
0.1 is the same as 10% i.e. 0.1 ∗ 100 = 10%
2 is 10% of 20

A negative number is a number lower than zero (compare with decimal

fractions, which must be greater than zero)
Multiplying or dividing two negative numbers together makes them posi-
tive, that is,

−2 ∗ −2 = 4
−10 ∕ − 5 = 2

Squares and square roots

Squaring a number is the same as multiplying it by itself, for example, 32 is
the same as 3 ∗ 3. Squaring comes from the theory of finding the area of a
square: a square with sides of 3 units in length has an area 3 ∗ 3 units, which is
9 square units:

3 units

3 units

12 = 1
1.52 = 2.25
22 = 4
2.52 = 6.25
32 = 9
−32 = 9
…

Squaring values between 1 and 2 will give answers greater than 1 and lower
than 4. Squaring values between 2 and 3 will give answers greater than 4 and
lower than 9, etc.
The square sign can also be expressed as ‘raised to the power of 2’.
Taking the square root is the opposite of squaring. The square root of a
number is the value that must be raised to the power of 2 or squared to give
that number, for example, 3 raised to the power of 2 is 9, so 3 is the square
xviii BASIC MATHS FOR STATS REVISION

root of 9. It is like asking, ‘what is the length of the sides of a square that has
an area of 9 square units’? The length of each side (i.e. square root) is 3 units:
√
4=2
√
6.25 = 2.5
√
9=3

Algebra
Rules of algebra
There is a hierarchy for performing calculations within an equation – certain
things must always be done before others. For example, terms within brackets
confer precedence and so should be worked out first:

(3 + 5) ∗ 2 means that 3 must be added to 5 before multiplying the result by 2.

Multiplication or division takes precedence over addition or subtraction

irrespective of the order in which the expression is written, so for 3 + 5 ∗ 2,
five and two are multiplied together first and then added to 3, to give 12. If
you intend that 3 + 5 must be added together before multiplying by 2, then
the addition must be enclosed in brackets to give it precedence. This would
give the answer 16.
Terms in involving both addition and subtraction are performed in the
order in which they are written, that is, working from left to right, as neither
operation has precedence over the other. Examples are 4 + 2 − 3 = 3 or 7 −
4 + 2 = 5. Precedence may be conferred to any part of such a calculation by
enclosing it within brackets.
Terms involving both multiplication and division are also performed in the
order in which they are written, that is, working from left to right, as they have
equal precedence. Examples are 3 ∗ 4 ∕ 6 = 2 or 3 ∕ 4 ∗ 6 = 4.5. Precedence may
be conferred to any part of such a calculation by enclosing it within brackets.
Squaring takes precedence over addition, subtraction, multiplication or
division so in the expression 3 ∗ 52 , five must first be squared and then mul-
tiplied by three to give the answer 75. If you want the square of 3 ∗ 5, that is,
the square of 15 then the multiplication term is given precedence by enclosing
it in brackets: (3 ∗ 5)2 , which gives the answer 225.
Similarly, taking a square root of something has precedence
√ over addition,
subtraction, multiplication or division, so the expression 2 + 7 means take
the square root of 2 then add it to 7. If you want the square root of 2 + 7,
that is, the square root √ of 9, then the addition term is given precedence by
enclosing it in brackets: (2 + 7).
 BASIC MATHS FOR STATS REVISION xix

When an expression is applicable generally and is not restricted to a specific

√ 2
value, a numerical value may be represented by a letter. For example,
√ 2 a =
a is always true whichever number is substituted for a, that is, 3 = 3 or
√
1052 = 105.

Simplifying numbers
Scientific notation
Scientific notation can be regarded as a mathematical ‘shorthand’ for writing
numbers and is particularly convenient for very large or very small numbers.
Here are some numbers written in both in full and in scientific notation:

In full In scientific notation

0.01 1 × 10−2
0.1 1 × 10−1
1 1 × 100
10 1 × 101
100 1 × 102
1000 1 × 103
0.021 2.1 × 10−2
25 2.5 × 101
345 3.45 × 102
4568 4.568 × 103

Note that in scientific notation there is only one number before the decimal
place in the multiplication factor that comes before the × 10. Where this factor
is 1, it may be omitted, for example 1 × 106 may be simplified to 106 .

Logarithms
The arithmetic expression 103 = 1000. In words, this is: ‘ten raised to the power
of three equals 1000’. The logarithm (log) of a number is the power to which
ten must be raised to obtain that number. So or log10 1000 = 3 or in words,
the log of 1000 in base 10 is 3. If no base is given as a subscript we assume
that the base is 10, so this expression may be shortened to log 1000 = 3. Here,
the number 1000 is called the antilog and 3 is its log. Here are some more
arithmetic expressions and their log equivalents.

Arithmetic Logarithmic

100 =1 log 1 = 0
101 = 10 log 10 = 1
102 = 100 log 100 = 2
104 = 10,000 log 10,000 = 4
xx BASIC MATHS FOR STATS REVISION

The log of a number greater than 1 and lower than 10 will have a log
between 0 and 1. The log of a number greater than 10 and lower than 100
will have a log between 1 and 2, etc.
Taking the logs of a series of numbers simply changes the scale of measure-
ment. This is like converting measurements in metres to centimetres, the scale
is altered but the relationship between one measurement and another is not.

Centring and standardising data

Centering – the arithmetic mean is subtracted from each observation.
Conversion to z-scores (standardisation) – subtract the arithmetic mean from
each observation and then divide each by the standard deviation.

Numerical accuracy
Accuracy
Of course it’s nice to be absolutely accurate, in both our recorded measure-
ments and in the calculations done on them. However, that ideal is rarely
achieved. If we are measuring human height, for example, we may be accu-
rate to the nearest quarter inch or so. Assuming we have collected the data
sufficiently accurately and without bias, then typically these are analysed by
a computer program such as Excel, SPSS, Minitab or R. Most programs are
extremely accurate, although some can be shown to go awry – typically if the
data have unusually large or small numbers. Excel, for example, does its cal-
culations accurate to 15 significant figures. Nerds have fun showing similar
problems in other database and statistical packages. In general, you won’t
need to worry about computational inaccuracies.
The general rule is that you use as much accuracy as possible during calcula-
tions. Compromising accuracy during the calculations can lead to cumulative
errors which can substantially affect the final answer. Once the final results
are obtained then it is usually necessary to round to nearest number of rel-
evant decimal places. You will be wondering about the specific meanings of
technical terms used above (indicated by italics).
Significant figures means the number of digits excluding the zeros that ‘fill
in’ around the decimal point. For example, 2.31 is accurate to 3 significant
figures, so is 0.000231 and 231000. It is possible that the last number really is
accurate down at the units level, if it had been rounded down from 231000.3,
in which case it would be accurate to 6 significant figures.
Rounding means removing digits before or after the decimal point to
approximate a number. For example, 2.31658 could be rounded to three dec-
imal places to 2.317. Rounding should be done to the nearest adjacent value.
The number 4.651 would round to 4.7, while the number 4.649 would round
 BASIC MATHS FOR STATS REVISION xxi

to 4.6. If the number were 1.250, expressed to its fullest accuracy, and we want
to round this to the nearest one decimal place, do we choose 1.2 or 1.3? When
there are many such values that need to be rounded, this could be done ran-
domly or by alternating rounding up then rounding down. With larger num-
bers such as 231, we could round this to the nearest ten to 230, or nearest
hundred to 200, or nearest thousand to 0. In doing calculations you should
retain all available digits in intermediate calculations and round only the
final results.
By now you understand what decimal places means. It is the number of
figures retained after the decimal point. Good. Let’s say we have some mea-
surements in grams, say 3.41, 2.78, 2.20, which are accurate to two decimal
places, then it would be incorrect to write the last number as 2.2 since the 0 on
the end indicates its level of precision. It means that the measurements were
accurate to 0.01 g, which is 10 mg. If we reported the 2.20 as 2.2 we would be
saying that particular measurement was made to an accuracy of only 0.1 g or
100 mg, which would be incorrect.

Summarising results
Now we understand the process of rounding, and that we should do this only
once all our calculations are complete. Suppose that in our computer output
we have the statistic 18.31478642. The burning question is: ‘How many deci-
mal places are relevant’? It depends. It depends on what that number repre-
sents. If it represents a statistical test statistic such as z, F, t or 𝜒 2 (Chapters 5,
6, 8), then two (not more than three) decimal places are necessary, for exam-
ple, 18.31. If this number represents the calculation for the proposed number
of participants (after a power calculation, Chapter 5) then people are whole
numbers, so it should be given as 18. If the number were an arithmetic mean
or other sample statistic then it is usually sufficient to give it to two or three
extra significant figures from that of the raw data. For example, if blood pres-
sure was measured to the nearest 1 mmHg (e.g. 105, 93, 107) then the mean
of the numbers could be given as 101.67 or 101.667. A more statistically con-
sistent method is to give results accurate to a tenth of their standard error.
For example, the following integer scores have a mean of 4.583333333333330
(there is the 15 significant figure accuracy of Excel!):

3 2 2 3 5 7 6 5 8 4 9 1

If we are to give a statistic accurate to within a tenth of a standard error

then we need to decide to how many significant figures to express our stan-
dard error. There is no benefit in reporting a standard error to any more accu-
racy than two significant figures, since any greater accuracy would be negligi-
ble relative to the standard error itself. The standard error for the 12 integer
xxii BASIC MATHS FOR STATS REVISION

scores above was 0.732971673905257, which we can round to 0.73 (two signif-
icant figures). One tenth of that is 0.073, which means we could express our
mean between one, or at most two, decimal places. For good measure we’ll go
for slightly greater accuracy and use two decimal places. This means that we
would write our summary mean ( ± standard error) as 4.58 ( ± 0.73). Another
example: if the mean were 934.678 and the standard error 12.29, we would
give our summary as 935 ( ± 12).
Should we need to present very large numbers then they can be given more
succinctly as a number multiplied by powers of 10 (see section on scientific
notation). For example, 650,000,000 could be stated as 6.5 × 108 . Similarly, for
very small numbers, such as 0.0000013 could be stated as 1.3 × 10−6 . The expo-
nent in each case represents the number of places the given number is from
the decimal place, positive for large numbers and negative for small numbers.
Logarithms are an alternative way of representing very large and small num-
bers (see section titled Logarithms).
Percentages rarely need to be given to more than one decimal place. So
43.6729% should be reported as 43.7%, though 44% is usually good enough.
That is unless very small changes in percentages are meaningful, or the per-
centage itself is very small and precise, for example, 0.934% (the concentra-
tion of Argon in the Earth’s atmosphere).

Where have the zeros gone?

In this book, we will be using the convention of dropping the leading zero
if the statistic or parameter is unable to exceed 1. This is true for probabil-
ities and correlation coefficients, for example. The software package SPSS
gives probabilities and correlations in this way. For example, SPSS gives a
very small probability as .000, which is confusing because calculated proba-
bilities are never actually zero. This format is to save space. Don’t make the
mistake of summarizing a result with p = 0 or even worse, p < 0. What the
.000 means is that the probability is less than .0005 (if it were .0006 then SPSS
would print .001). To report this probability value you need to write p < .001.
Statistical Software
Packages

Statistical analysis has dramatically changed over the last 50 years or so.
Here is R. A. Fisher using a mechanical calculator to perform an analysis in
the 1940s.

Copyright A. C. Barrington Brown. Reproduced by permission of the Fisher Memorial Trust.

Fortunately, with the advent of digital computers calculations became eas-

ier, and there are now numerous statistical software packages available. Per-
haps the most successful commercial packages are those of Minitab and
SPSS. These are available as stand-alone or network versions, and are pop-
ular in academic settings. There are also free packages available by down-
load from the internet. Of these, R is perhaps the most popular. This can be
downloaded by visiting the main website http://cran.r-project.org/. R provides
xxiv STATISTICAL SOFTWARE PACKAGES

probably the most extensive statistical procedures of any of the packages (free
and commercial). It also has unrivalled graphical capabilities. Both statisti-
cal and graphical procedures are continuously being updated and extended.
R initially may be difficult to use for the uninitiated, especially since it is
a command line rather than menu-driven package. The extra investment in
time to learn the basics of R will be repaid by providing you with greater
flexibility, insight and skill. There are numerous guides and blogs for begin-
ners, which can be found by a quick search of the internet. The base R
package allows one to do most basic statistical and numerical procedures;
however, many other procedures, especially advanced ones, require addi-
tional special packages to be installed. This inconvenience is a small price
to pay for the greater statistical computing power unleashed. Once a special
package has been installed then it needs to be referenced by the command
library(package.name) each time you start a new session. R and its packages
are continually being upgraded, so it worth checking every now and then for
the latest version. There are integrated development environments, or inter-
faces, which make using R more convenient and streamlined. In particular,
RStudio is recommended. Once R has been installed, RStudio can be down-
loaded (again free), see http://www.rstudio.com.
All the analyses done in this book will have the commands and outputs
using these three packages Minitab, SPSS and R available in Appendix B. In
addition, the raw data will be available in .csv format. This will allow you to
duplicate all of the analyses.
About the Companion
Website

This book is accompanied by a companion website:

www.wiley.com/go/deWinter/spatialscale

The website includes:

r Powerpoints of all figures from the book for downloading

r PDFs of all tables from the book for downloading
r Web-exclusive data files (for Chapters 6, 7 and 10) for downloading
1
Introducing Variables,
Populations and
Samples – ‘Variability
is the Law of Life’

1.1 Aims
William Osler, a Canadian physician once wrote: ‘Variability is the law of life,
and as no two faces are the same, so no two bodies are alike, and no two indi-
viduals react alike and behave alike under the abnormal conditions which we
know as disease’. We could add that neither do individuals behave or react
alike in health either, and we could extend this to tissues and cells and indeed
any living organism. In short, biological material, whether it is a whole organ-
ism or part of one in a cell culture dish, varies. The point of applying statis-
tics to biological data is to try to determine whether this variability is simply
inherent, natural variability, or whether it arises as a consequence of what
is being tested, the experimental conditions. This is the fundamental aim of
using inferential statistics to analyse biological data.

1.2 Biological data vary

Imagine that you are an alien and land on earth. It seems to be quite a pleasant
habitable sort of place and you decide it’s worth exploring a little further. It
doesn’t look like your own planet and everything is new and strange to you.
Fortunately, your species evolved to breathe oxygen so you can walk about
freely and observe the native life. Suddenly a life form appears from behind

Starting Out in Statistics: An Introduction for Students of Human Health, Disease, and Psychology
First Edition. Patricia de Winter and Peter M. B. Cahusac.
C ⃝ 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Published 2014 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Companion Website: www.wiley.com/go/deWinter/spatialscale

2 CH 1 INTRODUCING VARIABLES, POPULATIONS AND SAMPLES

some immobile living structures, you later learn are called trees, and walks
towards you on all fours. It comes up close and sniffs you inquisitively. You
have no idea what this creature is, whether it is a particularly large or small
specimen, juvenile or mature, or any other information about it at all. You
scan it with your Portable Alien information Device (PAiD), which yields no
clues – this creature is unknown to your species. You fervently hope that it
is a large specimen of its kind because although it seems friendly enough and
wags its rear appendage from side to side in an excited manner, you have
seen its teeth and suspect that it could make a tasty meal of you if it decided
you were an enemy. If larger ones were around, you wouldn’t want to be.
You are alone on an alien planet with a strange creature in close proximity
and no information. Fortunately, your species is well versed in Statistics, so
you know that if you gather more information you will be able to make some
assumptions about this creature and assess whether it is a threat to you or not.
You climb out of its reach high up into a convenient nearby tree and wait.
You currently have a sample size of one. You need to observe more of
these creatures. You don’t have long to wait. The life form is soon joined by
another of a similar size which sniffs it excitedly. Well, two is better than one,
but the information you have is still limited. These two could be similarly sized
because they are siblings and both juveniles – the parents could be bigger and
just around the corner. You decide to stay put. Some time passes and the pair
are joined by 30–40 similar creatures making a tremendous noise, all excited
and seemingly in anticipation of something you hope is not you for dinner.
Your sample size has grown substantially from two to a pretty decent num-
ber. They vary only a little in size; no individual is even close to double the
size of another. The creatures are quite small relative to your height and you
don’t think one ten times the size is very likely to turn up to threaten you.
This is reassuring, but you are even happier when a creature you do recog-
nise, a human, turns up and is not mauled to death by the beasts, reinforcing
your initial judgement. This example introduces some basic and very impor-
tant statistical concepts:

1. If you observe something only once, or what a statistician would call a

sample size of one, you cannot determine whether other examples of the
same thing differ greatly, little or not at all, because you cannot make any
comparisons. One dog does not make a pack.
2. Living things vary. They may vary a little, such as the small difference in
the size of adult hounds, or a lot, like the difference in size between a
young puppy and an adult dog.
3. The more observations you have, the more certain you can be that the
conclusions you draw are sound and have not just occurred by chance.
Observing 30 hounds is better than observing just two.
 1.3 VARIABLES 3

In this chapter, we will expand on these concepts and explain some sta-
tistical jargon for different types of variables, for example, quantitative,
qualitative, discrete, continuous, etc., and then progress onto samples and
populations. By the end of the chapter you should be able to identify different
types of variables, understand that we only ever deal with samples when deal-
ing with data obtained from humans and understand the difference between
a statistical and a biological population.

1.3 Variables
Any quantity that can have more than one value is called a variable, for exam-
ple, eye colour, number of offspring, heart rate and emotional response are all
variables. The opposite of this is a constant, a quantity that has a fixed value,
such as maximum acceleration, the speed of light in a vacuum. In the example
above, our alien observes the variable ‘size of unknown four-legged creature’.
While there are some constants in biological material, humans are born with
one heart, for example, most of the stuff we are made of falls into the category
of variable.
Variables can be categorised into different types. Why is this important in
Statistics? Well, later on in this book you will learn that the type of statistical
test we use depends in part on the type of variable that we have measured, so
identifying its type is important. Some tests can be used only with one type of
variable.
First, let us divide variables into two broad categories: those that are
described by a number and those that are not. In the following list, which
of the variables are not described by numbers?

Eye colour
Number of offspring
Heart rate
Fear

You should have had no difficulty in deciding that the variables ‘eye colour’
and ‘fear’ are not described by a number; eye pigmentation is described by
colours and fear can be described by adjectives on a scale of ‘not fearful at
all’ to ‘extremely’. Or even ‘absolutely petrified’, if you are scared of spiders
and the tiniest one ambles innocently across your desk. We call variables that
are not described by a number, qualitative variables. You may also hear them
called categorical variables. It is often stated that qualitative variables cannot
be organised into a meaningful sequence. If we were to make a list of eye
colours it wouldn’t matter if we ordered it ‘blue, brown, green, grey’ or ‘green,
4 CH 1 INTRODUCING VARIABLES, POPULATIONS AND SAMPLES

blue, grey, brown’, as long as all the categories of eye colour are present we
can write the list in any order we wish and it would make sense. However,
for a qualitative variable such as fear, it would be more logical to order the
categories from none to extreme or vice versa.
The two remaining variables on the list above can both be described by a
number: number of offspring can be 1, 2, 3, etc. and heart rate is the number
of beats per minute. These are quantitative or numerical variables. Numerical
variables have a meaningful progressive order in either magnitude (three off-
spring are more than two, 80 beats per minute are greater than 60 beats per
minute) or time (three days of cell culture is longer than one day)
Some examples of qualitative and quantitative variables are reported in
Table 1.1.

Table 1.1 Examples of qualitative and quantitative variables

Qualitative (categorical) variables Quantitative (numerical) variables

Hair or skin colour Weight

Nationality or ethnicity Mean arterial blood pressure
Blood type Age
Month of birth Core body temperature
Genotype Number of offspring
Gender Blood glucose level
Source of information Gene expression level
Food preference Fluorescence intensity

1.4 Types of qualitative variables

Let’s take a closer look at qualitative variables. These can be sub-divided into
further categories: nominal, multiple response and preference.

1.4.1 Nominal variables

The word nominal means ‘pertaining to nouns or names’, so nominal variables
are those whose ‘values’ are nouns such as brown, married, alive, heterozy-
gous. The first six qualitative variables in Table 1.1 are nominal. Nominal vari-
ables cannot have arithmetic (+, −, ∗, /) or logical operations (>, <, ≥, etc.)
performed on them, for example, you cannot subtract French from Dutch, or
multiply January by May.

1.4.2 Multiple response variables

This type of variable is frequently found in surveys and questionnaires and
is one where a respondent can select all answers that apply. It is a special
 1.5 TYPES OF QUANTITATIVE VARIABLES 5

type of nominal variable. For example, a quality of life survey question might
ask prostate cancer patients to select which side effects of anti-androgen ther-
apy they find most unpleasant: hot flushes, difficulty passing urine, swelling
or enlargement of the breast, breast tenderness, nausea. As not all patients
experience all side effects, study participants would be permitted to select all
options that apply to them.

1.4.3 Preference variables

Like multiple response variables, preference variables are also a special type
of nominal variable. They are used in surveys and questionnaires and consist
of a list of statements, which the respondent must rank in either ascending or
descending order. A questionnaire given to patients with Parkinson’s disease
might ask respondents to score aspects of their health from 1 (most impor-
tant) to 5 (least important), with each score being used only once. Responses
from five patients might look something like the data in Table 1.2. Although
the sample size here is small (five), the symptoms that most bother respon-
dents are slow movement and disturbed sleep pattern as these symptoms are
ranked more highly than the others. Hence, this type of question aims to iden-
tify which variable is most or least preferred from a list and in this case might
be used to improve or select treatment options.

Table 1.2 Scores given to five preference variables by five patients

Score

Symptom Patient 1 Patient 2 Patient 3 Patient 4 Patient 5

Slow movement 1 2 1 3 1
Tremor 4 3 3 4 4
Constipation 3 5 2 2 3
Abdominal distension 5 4 5 5 5
Disturbed sleep pattern 2 1 4 1 2

1.5 Types of quantitative variables

1.5.1 Discrete variables
This type of variable can have only a whole number as a value. A good exam-
ple is the number of offspring; one can have one, two, three or more children,
but not one-and-a-half. Discrete variables can meaningfully be added, sub-
tracted, multiplied and divided. Logical operations may also be applied, for
example, for the variable ‘number of offspring’, 3 > 2 is a logical statement
that makes sense, three children are indeed more than two.
6 CH 1 INTRODUCING VARIABLES, POPULATIONS AND SAMPLES

1.5.2 Continuous variables

Continuous variables can have fractional values, such as 3.5 or 0.001; however,
we need to subdivide this type of variable further into those that are measured
on a ratio scale and those that are measured on an interval scale. The differ-
ence between these is whether they are scaled to an absolute value of zero
(ratio) or not (interval). A simple example is temperature. In science, there
are two scales used for measuring temperature: degrees centigrade or Celsius
(◦ C) and Kelvin (K). Chemists and physicists tend to use predominantly
Kelvin, but for convenience biologists often use ◦ C because it’s the scale that is
used in the everyday world – if you asked me what the core body temperature
of a mammal is, I would be able to tell you 37◦ C without even thinking about
it, but I would have to look up the conversion factor and perform some maths
if you asked me to tell you in Kelvin. So how do these two scales for measuring
temperature differ? Well the value of zero on a Kelvin scale is absolute – it is
in effect the absence of temperature – and as cold as anything can be. It is the
theoretical value at which there is no movement of atoms and molecules and
therefore no production of the heat that we measure as temperature. You can-
not have negative values for Kelvin. On the Celsius scale the value of zero is
simply the freezing point of water, which is not an absolute zero value as many
things can be colder – negative temperatures are not uncommon during win-
ter. One degree Celsius is one-hundredth of the difference between the freez-
ing and boiling point of water, as the latter is given the value of 100◦ C. So ◦ C
is a relative scale – everything is quantified by comparison to these two mea-
surements of water temperature. While ratio scales can have the same math-
ematical operations applied to them as for discrete variables, interval scales
cannot; 200◦ C is not twice as hot as 100◦ C, but 200 K is twice as hot as 100 K.

1.5.3 Ordinal variables – a moot point

The final type of variable that we will describe is the ordinal variable. This is a
variable whose values are ranked by order – hence ordinal – of magnitude. For
example, the order of birth of offspring: first born, second born, etc., or the
abundance scales used in ecology to quantify number of organisms populating
an area with typical ranks from abundant to rare. The reason that we have
classified ordinal variable separately is that they are treated as a special type of
nominal variable by some and as a numerical variable by others, and there are
arguments for and against each.

1.6 Samples and populations

We have now established that there are many types of variables and once we
have decided upon which variable(s) we intend to study, we need to decide
how we are going to go about it. Let us go back to our alien who landed on our
 1.6 SAMPLES AND POPULATIONS 7

planet with no information about what to expect. He encountered a dog and

started making some assumptions about it using what a statistician would call
a sample size of one. This minimum sample size yields only a very restricted
amount of information, so our alien waited patiently until his sample size grew
to a large enough number that he could confidently make a reasoned judge-
ment of the likely threat to his person. Note that the alien did not need to
observe all domesticated dogs on earth, a very large sample size, to come to
this conclusion. And this is in essence the entire point of Statistics; it allows us
to draw conclusions from a relatively small sample of observations. Note that
in Statistics we do not use the word observation to mean something that we
see, but in a broader sense meaning a piece of information that we have col-
lected, such as the value of a variable whether it be a measurement, a count or
a category. We use the information obtained from a small sample to estimate
the properties of a whole population of observations.
What do we mean by a population? This is where it gets a little confusing
because the same word is used to mean different things by different people.
The confusion likely arises because biologists, and the public in general, use
population to mean a distinct group of individuals such as penguins at the
South Pole or cancer patients in the United Kingdom. The definition coined
by the influential statistician Ronald Aylmer Fisher (1924) is frequently
misrepresented. Fisher stated that a population is in statistical terms a the-
oretical distribution of numbers, which is not restricted in time or biological
possibility: ‘. . . since no observational record can completely specify a human
being, the populations studies are always to some extent abstractions’ and
‘The idea of a population is to be applied not only to living, or even to
material, individuals’.
So the population of domestic dog sizes – let’s take height as the measure-
ment – could include the value 10 metres. Biologically speaking a dog (about
the height of four rooms stacked on top of each other), is pretty much impos-
sible, and would make a rather intimidating pet into the bargain. But statisti-
cally speaking this height of dog is possible, even if extremely improbable. The
chances of meeting such a dog are fortunately so infinitesimally small as to be
dismissible in practice, but the possibility is real. So a statistical population
is quite different from a biological one, because it includes values that may
never be observed and remain theoretical. We can ask a computer to provide
a sample of values that are randomly selected from a statistical population. We
define the numerical characteristics of the population and how many values
we would like generated and the software will return our randomly sampled
values – most statistical software can do this.
Once we have understood the meaning of a statistical population, it is easier
to understand why we only ever have a sample of observations when we col-
lect data from humans, even if we had endless resources and unlimited fund-
ing. So, if we were to measure the variable, heart rate, in male athletes, the
 Another Random Document on
Scribd Without Any Related Topics
 “‘Again it is to me almost a demonstration that God’s hand
is seen in this thing. Many thousands, to all human
appearance, have been made to study the Scriptures by the
preaching of the time; and by that means, through faith and
the sprinkling of the blood of Christ, have been reconciled to
God. And those of us who have been familiar with the fruits
and effects of the preaching of this doctrine, must
acknowledge that he has been with us in so doing, and his
wisdom has in a great measure marked out our path, which
he has devised for such good as he will accomplish in his own
time and manner; as in the case of Ninevah by the preaching
of Jonah. If this should be the real state of the case, and we
should go on to set other times in the future, we might
possibly be found frustrating, or trying to, at least, the
purposes of God, and receive no blessing. I think my brethren
will all admit that God has been in the work, and he has tried
our faith in the best possible manner. The vision has been
made plain on tables. We have had a tarrying time. And now
we are having our time of patience unto the coming of the
Lord. Then I say, Let patience have its perfect work. I have
great hope, and a good confidence. I think I may safely say
that the Lord will make his appearance yet before this Jewish
year shall terminate. And if so, and we should be looking for
years to come, we should not do well. Therefore, the only
safe measure for me to pursue, under the best light I can
now get, is to keep what light I have burning, and look and
expect him every day until he comes. This is my present
position, and the greatest danger which those are in who take
this position, will be the loss of patience and a neglect of
watching and prayer. To remedy this, I would advise that we
keep ourselves as much as possible from worldly associations,
vain and trifling conversation, wrangling or disputing on any
subject; and when we do hold conversation, let it be with
those whose conversation is in Heaven, from whence we look
for the Saviour. And when we pray, remember God hears
every word, and knows every motive which dictates our
prayers; and be sure that we be honest before God.
“‘If the experience which we have passed through, from
the beginning of the present year,—the tarrying time from
April until October and the sanctifying influence of the
seventh month, with the humiliation and patience of those
who are evidently looking for the redemption of the true
Israel,—is not the beginning and preparation of the final
cleansing of the sanctuary, then I will acknowledge I am
deceived. The great fault with us who have been expounding
the time of the fulfillment of prophecy, is, we have crowded
all these things into a very unwarrantable short space of time,
we have given no time for preparation, we were too
impatient. Therefore, we are exhorted to be patient, and
James says, “The Judge standeth at the door.” I am fully
convinced the work has already begun. Let us then have
patience, brethren, from this time until he comes; for the
coming of the Lord draweth nigh.
“‘We have erred in many things, and even the second
advent brethren were not prepared for the coming of Christ;
they had, many of them, left the work of the Lord, and had
been doing their own work. The work of the Lord, which he
had commanded us to do, was to make the vision plain, to
write it on tables, to give the alarm, the midnight cry, and
wake up the virgins; and while these things, and these things
only were attended to, our work prospered, and God was with
us. And now, my dear brethren, permit me to be plain: I hope
all who are worth saving are humble enough to bear my
reproof, and I mean to give it with the sincerest of motives,
and with the kindest affection of my heart.
“‘The causes which required God’s chastising hand upon us,
were, in my humble opinion, Pride, Fanaticism, and
Sectarianism. Pride worked in many ways. We ascribed our
conquest in argument over our opponents to ourselves. We
were seeking the honors or applause of men more than of
God. We were some of us seeking to be leaders, instead of
being servants—boasting too much of our doings. And
Fanaticism: I know our enemies accused of this before we
were guilty; but this did not excuse us for running into it. A
thousand expressions were used, without thought or
reflection, and I thought sometimes very irreverently, such as,
“Bless God,” &c. I was afraid it was done in very many cases
to the appearance of outward piety, rather than as the hidden
manna of the heart. Sometimes our meetings were
distinguished by noise and confusion, and, forgive me,
brethren, if I express myself too strongly, it appeared to me
more like Babel than a solemn assembly of penitents bowing
in humble reverence before a holy God. I have often obtained
more evidence of inward piety from a kindling eye, a wet
cheek, and a choked utterance, than from all the noise in
Christendom. Sectarianism: this is always produced by some
private opinion of man, rather than by the plain declaration of
God’s word. For years after I began to proclaim this blessed
truth of Christ at the door, I never, if possible to avoid it, even
alluded to sectarian principles; and the first objection my
Baptist brethren brought against me, was, I mixed with, and
preached unto, all denominations, even to Unitarians, &c. But
we have recently, my brethren, been guilty of raising up a
sect of our own; for, the very things which our fathers did,
when they became sects, we have been doing. We have, like
them, cried Babylon! Babylon!! Babylon!!! against all but
Adventists. We have proclaimed and discussed, “pro et con,”
many sectarian dogmas which have nothing to do with our
message. May God forgive us. And now, brethren, we have
need of patience, that after we have done the will of God, we
may receive the promise. Yours as ever,
“‘Wm. Miller.’
 On the 28th and 29th of December, 1844, a Conference was held
at Low Hampton, where the following address, prepared by Bro.
Miller at the request of the brethren, was presented by a committee,
and unanimously adopted by the Conference:—

“‘ADDRESS TO ADVENT BELIEVERS.

“To the dear Second Advent brethren, scattered abroad:
despised, but not forsaken; poor, yet making many rich;
discarded by the proud Pharisees of our day, yet not
discouraged; cruelly treated for the doctrine you love, and yet
holding firmly to your hope of salvation at the door.
“‘We the undersigned, partakers of the same hope, children
of the same faith, looking for the same deliverance, loving the
same Lord, feeding on the same word, enjoying the same
Spirit, suffering the same trials, subjected to like
disappointments, and having the same care and fellowship for
your welfare and furtherance in the truth, as ye have one for
another and for us, address you by this our epistle, in the way
of consolation and advice; knowing that while we may
comfort and console your hearts, we are establishing and
strengthening our own. For if through many disappointments,
temptations and trials, you stand fast in the faith once
delivered to the saints, we rejoice in your steadfastness, are
comforted together with you, and are strengthened even in
the inner and the outer man.
“‘We thank God always on your behalf, when we hear, as
we already have heard, that your and our late disappointment
has produced in you, and we hope in us also, a deep
humiliation and close inspection of our hearts; and although
we are humbled, and in some measure pained in our hearts
to see and hear the scoffs and jeers of a wicked and perverse
generation, yet we are in nowise terrified or cast down by the
adversaries of our faith. We pray you, then, brethren, to “let
patience have its perfect work,” knowing “that patience
worketh experience, and experience hope, and hope maketh
not ashamed.” No, we are not ashamed, for we all know why
we hope. You can and will, all of you, from the least of you to
the greatest, old or young, when inquired of for the reason of
your hope, open your Bibles and with meekness and fear
show the inquirer why you hope in the glorious appearing of
the great God and our Saviour Jesus Christ. You need not in a
single instance refer the inquirer to your minister to give the
reason of your faith and hope.
“‘We bless God for you, my brethren, that you are all
taught of the Lord. Your creed is the Scriptures; your spelling-
book is the Bible; your grammar is the word indited by the
Spirit; your geography respects the promised inheritance of
the holy land; your astronomy respects the bright starry
crown of righteousness; your philosophy is the wisdom which
cometh down from God; your bond of union is the love and
fellowship of the saints; your teacher is the Holy Ghost; and
your professor, the Lord Jesus Christ; your recitation room is
your closet; your recitations are heard in your prayers, and
your songs fill up your vacations. We speak not of rewards,
diplomas, and degrees, for these are reserved in Heaven for
us, when these dusty walls of this tabernacle shall be
dissolved, and we are called home into the new heavens and
new earth, to a full fruition of that hope of which we are not
ashamed. Ashamed of this hope? No. Ashamed of looking for
this hope? No. Ashamed of expecting Jesus? Why, what a
question!! When we look, do we not expect? The ministers of
our formal churches, some of them, say “they look, but do
not expect.” Yet, brethren, we have expected time and again
and have been disappointed, but are not ashamed.
“‘We would not yield a hair’s breadth of our expectations
for all the honors of Cæsar’s household, with all the popular
applause of a worldly church. We exhort you, then, by all the
love and fellowship of the saints, to hold fast to this hope. It
is warranted by every promise of the word of God. It is
secured to you by the two immutable things, the council and
oath of God, in which it is impossible for God to lie. It is
ratified and sealed by the death, blood, resurrection and life
of Jesus Christ. You have already had a foretaste of the bliss
of this hope, in the seventh month, when every moment you
looked for the heavens to open and reveal unto your anxious
gaze the King of glory. Yes, then your whole soul was
ravished with a holy joy, when you expected every moment to
hear the shout of the heavenly host descending from the
Father’s glory, to welcome you, a weary pilgrim, to your
blessed abode of eternal rest. In that eventful period where
was the world with all its vain allurements and empty show?
It was gone.
“‘If our Saviour then had come as we expected, no tears
would have fallen for a receding world, nor sighs have heaved
our breasts for a dissolving earth, with all its pomp, its
pleasures, or its praises. All this was then no more to us than
is a bubble in Niagara’s cataract. God’s goodness gave us
then a slight repast, like Elijah’s meat, that lasted forty days.
And how can you, or we, give up a hope so full of joy, of holy
love and heavenly anticipation, as is this? The world may
frown and scoff; the unbelieving church may laugh and sneer
and try to call us back. They may and will report their
slanderous tales to complete our trials, vainly supposing they
can wound our pride, and by this means take away our hope,
and make us, like themselves, a whited sepulcher. In all our
trials those who have obtained this blessed hope by the study
of the Scriptures have remained steadfast and immovable
among the scoffs and jeers with which we have been
assailed.
“‘This, to us, is a source of great joy; and it shows
conclusively where our faith is founded and our hope
predicated. It is upon the sure word of prophecy, and no
other evidence, that we rely. This is our main support, as
even our opposers will, and do, admit; or why do they, in
their attacks upon us, first try to show that prophecy is not to
be understood, or if it is, that it is couched in such mystical
and ambiguous language, that the ignorant and unlearned (as
they are pleased to call us poor Bible students, in their mighty
elemency) cannot comprehend its true import? Or why do
they ridicule us as a set of fanatical, unlearned heretics, in
trying to understand the sure word of prophecy, without first
coming to our bishops, or themselves, to learn what the
original text may mean? Why do they use these and similar
arguments in order to overthrow us if they are not sensible of
the fact that the prophecies of God’s word are our main pillar?
Why do they, without any discrimination, try to make our sure
word of prophecy so dark, mysterious, and incomprehensible,
and in many instances acknowledge their own ignorance, and
then call us heretics because we search and believe what to
us looks clear, consistent, and harmonious with every part of
God’s holy word? But, say they, “time has proved you in an
error; unerring time has favored us, and proved what you say
we failed to do.”
“‘True, gentleman, time has failed us in one or two
instances, yet you cannot show why? And as you do not show
any reason for the failure, permit us to give ours before we
take your ground and deny that prophecy can be understood.
Every man of common intellect and information knows that
we are dependent in some things on what we call human
chronology for the conclusion of our premises as it respects
time. Again, they well know that our most learned and
studious writers and historians disagree in the chronology of
the events from which we date, some four or five years. It is
true that we who have been most efficient in presenting this
subject before the public, have chosen, and we think wisely
too, the earliest possible time at which these momentous
things might be expected to transpire, believing that it would
be infinitely better for the souls of our fellow-beings to come
short of the time, rather than to pass over. And indeed, we do
not see any good reason now why we should not have done
in this matter as we have; for if we had looked only to the
very last point of disputed time, and the accomplishment had
come before that, or even at that time, how could there have
been a tarrying time as the Bible predicts?
“‘How could there have been a time for the trial of our faith
and patience, and the purifying and sanctifying of the whole
house of the true Israel? If we had not anticipated the time a
little, with what propriety could the wicked scoffer and those
who professedly belong to the house of Israel say, “The days
are prolonged, and every vision faileth”? and what has God
said we shall answer this rebellious house of Israel with? With
another specified time? No. How then shall we ever silence
their caviling and scoffing, if we can fix no future time? We
answer, That is not our work to do. God has promised to do
that work. Hark! and hear what the Lord saith. “I will make
this proverb to cease, and they shall no more use it as a
proverb in Israel.” God will perform his engagements in his
own time and manner. We have only to believe and be
patient.
“‘But we are taunted with, “Oh! you have prolonged your
vision again and again; and you have failed every time; now
won’t you give it up and come back to us? You are not honest
if you will not.” When they thus call us dishonest, have we
nothing we can say? If we altogether hold our peace, they
will be wise in their own conceits, and go and report that they
have shut up our mouths so that we could not say a word for
ourselves; and thus the cause would be injured. But never
fear, brethren; God has told you what to say; do as he bids
you, and he will take care of the consequences. God says,
“But say unto them, The days are at hand, and the effect of
every vision.” See Eze. 12:21-25. So we see God has been in
this thing; he well knew into what a straightened place we
should be brought; he knew what the rebellious house of
Israel would say, and he has given us the best weapon of
defense.
“‘The word of God has a sufficiency of all armor, that the
man of God may be perfect, thoroughly furnished to every
good work. We therefore hope that none of us will try to
change the chronology of the visions; for they must all fail in
all our eyes; and if any vision should be so construed as to fix
on another definite time in the future, we cannot conceive
how the Scripture would be fulfilled, that “every vision
faileth.” Let us then be satisfied in patiently waiting for God’s
time. But let us be careful that we do not lay off our armor,
cease our watching, go to sleep at our post, or be caught in a
snare, when the Son of man shall come. It is better to be
ready before the time, and wait a while, than not to be ready
when the time shall come, and be lost. We exhort you then
with the Lord’s advice, “be like men waiting for their Lord,
that when he cometh they may open to him immediately.”
“‘Again, we exhort you, brethren, that every one may edify,
and be edified, that ye forsake not the assembling of
yourselves together, as often as your situation and
circumstances shall permit; that we may comfort and console
each other in our trials, be established ourselves in the
present truth, and our minds be stirred up to remember that
our Judge is now standing at the door. How can we who have
taken so great delight in the study of the blessed Bible, again
return to the beggarly elements of vain philosophy and
tradition of the fathers? We cannot sit under preaching where
the Bible is discarded from the pulpit, except as a text-book,
and the plainest passages of Scripture are mysticised and
explained away, our hope in the resurrection of the body
taken from us, and the kingdom of Heaven preached as in
this state of division, persecution and death, and the promise
of being caught up in the air, ridiculed by the oft-repeated
slang of ascension robes. These things we cannot fellowship;
we will not hear them repeated. We therefore advise you,
dear brethren, to hold meetings for prayer, reading of the
Scriptures, exhortation and singing, if you may not be able to
obtain a lecturer or preacher. And may the Spirit of God bless
you with his presence, and preserve you blameless unto his
coming.
“‘Again we exhort you, brethren, to be faithful in business.
Let every one labor with his hands, in the several callings in
which God has placed us, that none of us may be a burden to
any, and that we may all of us have wherewith to
communicate and do good, for it is more blessed to give than
to receive; and that we may none of us give any occasion to
our enemies to reproach us with being busybodies in other
men’s matters, or as not providing for our own house. In thus
doing we may put to silence the reproaches of those who are
seeking every occasion to destroy the doctrine that we rejoice
to believe. We may, while we are engaged in our several
occupations, be fervent in spirit, serving the Lord. If we could
not, it would be evidence that we were not engaged in a
proper calling; or, that our hearts were not right with God.
Paul, the great apostle to the Gentiles, labored with his
hands, that he might not be chargeable to the saints; and
what was duty then, will be duty as long as the gospel
remains to be preached. And we thank God we have never
preached any other doctrine, you yourselves being our
judges.
“‘We also beseech you, brethren, by the coming of our Lord
Jesus Christ, that ye be not led about by every spirit; but try
the spirits. For every spirit is not of God; and it is now evident
that there are many spirits in the earth,—even the three
unclean spirits which are working miracles, and deceiving not
only kings, but the whole earth. It therefore becomes us to
be very cautious by what spirit we are led. The spirit of error
will lead us from the truth; and the Spirit of God will lead us
into truth. But, say you, a man may be in error, and think he
has the truth. What then? We answer, The spirit and word
agree. If a man judges himself by the word of God, and finds
a perfect harmony through the whole word, then we must
believe we have the truth; but if he finds the spirit by which
he is led does not harmonize with the whole tenor of God’s
law, or book, then let us walk carefully, lest we be caught in
the snare of the devil and fall from our own steadfastness;
and so be deceived, and lose the crown for which we are
running. Let us follow the teachings of the apostle Paul in
Titus 2:12, “That denying ungodliness and worldly lusts, we
should live soberly, righteously, and godly, in this present
world.” Or, as Peter tells us in his second epistle, chap. 3:11,
“Seeing then that all these things shall be dissolved, what
manner of persons ought ye to be in all holy conversation and
godliness.” In both cases the context teaches us to look for
the coming of the day of God; or, which is the same thing,
“the glorious appearing of the great God and our Saviour
Jesus Christ.”
“‘There are a few individuals among us who are teaching
that Christ has come, and that we were not mistaken in the
time, but only in the manner of his coming. Let us be careful
lest we cease from our watchfulness and so that day come
upon us unawares. Remember that the same Jesus will come
in like manner as they saw him ascend; and every eye shall
see him, and we shall see him as he is, and be like him, when
that day shall come for which we look; and then “the heavens
being on fire, shall be dissolved, and the elements melt with
fervent heat.” If the one can be spiritualized away, all the rest
must of course be spiritualized in like manner; and it would
make the whole description of the Judgment but a jumble of
nonsense. We hope but few will be carried away by such vain
trifling with the Bible.
“‘If God does not mean what he says, to whom shall we go
for instruction? Who has been his counselor? and who has set
in the council chamber of the Almighty? Man is but grass, and
the flower thereof fadeth. He is but of yesterday, and his life
 but a breath. “Cursed is the man who trusteth in man, and
maketh flesh his arm, and whose heart departeth from the
Lord.” Hold on then, brethren, to the sure word of prophecy,
for you will reap soon the fruits of your faith, if you faint not.’

“January 29, 1845, by the action of an ecclesiastical council, Mr.

Miller and the majority of the church in Low Hampton were virtually
separated from the Baptist denomination. About this time Mr. Miller
wrote the following, which appeared in the Advent Herald for Feb.
12, 1845:—

“‘Dear Bro. Bliss: I have received a number of letters from

almost every part of the country, almost all of them
propounding the same questions, viz., What I thought of the
experience we had in what was denominated the seventh
month? And also, What was my opinion concerning the
closing of the door of mercy, or probation for sinners? To save
a multiplicity of letters, I thought best to answer these
queries through the Herald, if you should think proper.
“‘1. The experience of the seventh month. The sympathetic
and simultaneous movement on the minds of almost all the
Second Advent brethren, and on many others preceding the
tenth, the rapidity with which that sentiment was received,
the general credence that was given to it, by nearly all of
those who were looking for immediate redemption, the
humbling effect it produced on the hearts and conduct of
those who believed,—in the abandonment of all worldly
objects, the sacrifice of earthly goods, and in many cases the
total dedication of soul and body to God,—the deep and
anxious feelings of heart which many of us felt, all marked its
character. Then we expected every moment the heavens
would open and reveal to us the dear Saviour with all his
shining hosts, and we should see the graves open and the
loved forms of our relations rising from their dusty beds in
immortal bloom and eternal life; and we ourselves pass the
sudden change from mortality to immortality, from time to
eternity. Then, as we verily thought, we had bid adieu to this
world of sin, of misery and woe, and expected to be ushered
into the new heavens and new earth wherein dwelleth
righteousness. Oh, blissful day! How solemn, yet how
interesting. I hope to see another day like this, and literally
realize what I then expected. It was a day long to be
remembered, and I cannot account for it on any other
principle than to suppose God’s benevolent hand and wisdom
was in the movement....
“‘But you ask why I do not show whether the probation of
sinners is ended.[28] I answer, It is a close point, and if
handled at all, it ought to be done very wisely and with a
great deal of humility. I would not grieve, if possible to avoid
it, one of Christ’s little ones. There is much sensitiveness on
this point among our good brethren, therefore I would much
rather keep my views in my own breast, if I could, and do
right, than run the risk of hurting the oil and the wine. You
will, therefore, permit me to give my views by the Scripture;
and first, Dan. 12:10, “Many shall be purified, and made
white, and tried; but the wicked shall do wickedly; and none
of the wicked shall understand; but the wise shall
understand.” It will be readily seen by this text, that before
the end, the people of God must be “purified, made white,
and tried.” Now if probation goes on until the last moment of
time, how can those who are regenerated in this last moment
have their faith and patience tried?
“‘Again, Rev. 7:13, 14, “And one of the elders answered,
saying unto me, What are these which are arrayed in white
robes? and whence came they? And I said unto him, Sir, thou
knowest. And he said to me, These are they which came out
of great tribulation, and have washed their robes, and made
them white in the blood of the Lamb.” How can it be said,
that those made white “came out of great tribulation,” if in
the next moment after they experience the new birth, they
are beyond all tribulation and trial? Also in the first passage,
the wicked are to do wickedly; and none of the wicked shall
understand. Yet if one of these wicked is converted after the
time specified, then the word none could not be true in fact.
This must be in time, it cannot mean in eternity.
“‘Zech. 13:9, “And I will bring the third part through the
fire, and will refine them as silver is refined, and will try them
as gold is tried; they shall call on my name, and I will hear
them; I will say, It is my people; and they shall say, The Lord
is my God.” Here we learn that they are tried in this state,
where they will need to pray.
“‘Mal. 3:18, “Then shall ye return, and discern between the
righteous and the wicked, between him that serveth God and
him that serveth him not.” When shall that test be given,
which shall make us discern between the righteous and the
wicked? The answer is plain, before the day cometh that shall
burn as an oven. For in that day no doubt could rest on any
mind, who is who, or what is the character each individual
would appear in.
“‘Rev. 22:11, “He that is unjust, let him be unjust still; and
he which is filthy, let him be filthy still; and he that is
righteous, let him be righteous still; and he that is holy, let
him be holy still.” This text is perfectly plain and needs no
comment. The 12th verse, “And behold, I come quickly; and
my reward is with me, to give every man according as his
work shall be,” shows that a little while before Christ comes,
every character will be determined. “He,” that is, any one, or
every one who is unjust or filthy, let him be so still; and so on
the other hand, he that is righteous or holy, let them be so
still. “And behold,” connects the sentence before and what
follows after, and is a caution for us to take particular notice
of the reason why they are in this peculiar situation or fixed
state, as though the idle servants could have no more time to
mind their day’s work, which God had given them in their day
of probation to perform.
“‘The eleventh hour was passed, and no chance for them to
enter the master’s vineyard now, in this last hour. While on
the other hand, the good servant might know that the good
master was at the door, and he would quickly pay them their
wages, and relieve them from their toils. See Matt. 20:1-16.
“‘Then this agrees with St. Paul, Heb. 10:36, 37, “For ye
have need of patience, that, after ye have done the will of
God, ye might receive the promise. For yet a little while, and
he that shall come will come, and will not tarry.” After we
have done our work, we have need of patience to wait for the
Master, “for yet a little while, and he that shall come will
come, and will not tarry.” I did believe, and must honestly
confess I do now, that I have done my work in warning
sinners, and that in the seventh month. I know my feelings
are no rule for others; therefore, let every one who feels he
has a duty to do for sinners, let him do it. I will have no hard
feelings. But I must be honest; when I am inquired of, I must
state my own conviction honestly. I have done it, and given
my reasons from the word of God. And now let me say,
brethren, we will have no contention on this point, for we be
brethren. Let every man be fully persuaded in his own mind,
and so let them speak or preach, as God and their own
consciences may dictate.
“‘I have a strong expectation that Christ will come before
the Jewish year will expire; but let us all see to it that we are
ready every day, so that when he comes we shall not be
ashamed before him. This letter must suffice for all those
friends who have requested my views on the subject. My love
to all who love our Lord Jesus Christ and pray for his
kingdom.
“‘Wm. Miller.’
 “The editors of the Advent Herald replied to Mr. Miller’s arguments,
and contended that probation only terminated with the personal
coming of Christ. His letter, as published, gave little satisfaction to
either party. Both claimed him. To determine his actual position, Prof.
N. N. Whiting wrote him, and Mr. Miller replied as follows:—

“‘Low Hampton, March 10, 1845.

“‘My Dear Brother:—Your favor of the 5th was gladly
received, and I take this early opportunity to answer your
inquiries as far as my memory or knowledge will admit.
“‘As it respects your first question, whether, in my
judgment, “the time of probation came to an end on the 22d
of October or not,” I answer, My mind was not definite on that
day. But the experience and scenes of that month were
astounding to me, and my mind was brought to a conclusion
that God, by his invisible angels, was separating the two
classes of men, the chaff from the wheat. But to say my
judgment was fully convinced that it was closed, I must say,
No. I know it is true that, in answer to a score of letters,
making the same inquiries as yourself, in my letter, published
in the Herald, of February 12, I gave several texts, which, to
me, were evidence that, before Christ came, there would be a
time when men would seek, knock, and cry, and it would not
be opened; for, how sinners could or would knock in the
eternal state, I have no means of knowing. The editors of the
Herald, knowing more about the controversy which had
begun in the ranks of the Adventists than I did or could, in
order to prevent the mischief or harm which they supposed
my letter might do, attached their notes, which gave the
brethren on the other side of the question more reason to
suppose I had taken the ground that the door was shut in the
seventh month....
“‘With our present light, it would be impossible for any man
to prove that the door is shut; it can only be a conjecture,
founded upon circumstances in the case. There are two cases
which I will mention: one would be the cessation of the
operation of the Spirit upon the hearts of the truly pious in
laboring and praying for sinners; and the other must be the
fearful looking for the fiery indignation, which, I think,
according to the Scripture, must seize upon the hearts of
those who have willfully rejected Christ. The hypocrite is
given over to believe a lie, considering himself safe in his
profession; and, consequently, the despair of some, and the
perfect recklessness of others, and the restraint of the Holy
Spirit being withdrawn from the minds of the impenitent,
would immediately produce a time of trouble such as Daniel
12:1 speaks of: “And at that time shall Michael stand up, the
great Prince which standeth for the children of thy people;
and there shall be a time of trouble, such as never was since
there was a nation even to that same time; and at that time
thy people shall be delivered, every one that shall be found
written in the book.” These would at least be evidences to my
suspicion, if not to my full assurance. It was a fact, for a few
days in the seventh month in the circle of my acquaintance,
that the reports I heard from every quarter led me to have
strong suspicion that we had approached the time which I
cannot but believe we must experience before the end. I
think at present the evidence is strong against the idea of the
door being shut; but those brethren who have adopted the
suspicion at least ought to be treated with a great deal of
kindness. I do not like much I have seen published and
spoken on both sides of the question. It is one of that kind of
questions which is calculated to divide warm friends; for it
cannot be settled satisfactorily but by time and experience.
“‘The arguments, in my humble opinion, on both sides,
want a great quantity of brotherly love to make them digest
easily. I, then, beg and pray, my brethren, that we may let
contention alone before it is meddled with.[29] And I now
plead with those who have supposed the door to be shut to
 yield the point to our brethren of the opposite view; for it is
evident at present that all the evidence is against its being
now shut, if we can believe the reports of our brethren from
different parts; and surely my soul will not permit me to
doubt their veracity who have been with us as pioneers in the
work of calling up the world to this important point of our
faith, the second advent of Jesus. Let us be silent at least for
two months, if Christ does not come before, and by that time
I think we shall obtain more light; and if Christ does come,
we shall not wish to be found contending with brethren of a
like precious faith on a subject dependent wholly on
circumstances in which we may be so likely to err. I do hope
my advice will be heeded in this thing, and that we will be
patient, and not grieve each other; for the Judge is at the
door....
“‘William Miller.’

Writing on the 7th of April, he referred to these things as follows:

—

“‘Low Hampton, April 7, 1845.

“‘My Dear Bro. Himes: I should utterly despair of the second
advent cause were it not evident, by its past and present
history, that God is for us. You know, my dear brother, there
was a time when you and I, with a few choice brethren, stood
alone.... We acknowledged our weakness, and claimed no
superiority over our fellows. We provoked no one to combat,
and made no attack on the prevailing or popular institutions
of the day; yet they began to be alarmed. Why? Because, as
the people began to hear the foolish reports of our enemies,
they became more and more anxious to know what these
things meant....
“‘Among the many pious who took sides with us were some
of those uneasy, ever-changing, unstable, insubordinate, and
 self-exalted spirits, who stood ready to jump on and ride into
notice and power the moment they saw how the case would
go. This kind of spirits have always seized the reins of
government, are never satisfied with their present position,
and will change with every new moon. There are many of this
class among us, if not of us, at the present time, who are
trying to lead away followers after them.
“‘This is a peculiar time. The greatest variety of fanciful
interpretations of Scripture are now being presented by new
luminaries, reflecting their rays of light and heat in every
direction. Some of these are wandering stars, and some emit
only twilight. I am sick of this everlasting changing; but, my
dear brother, we must learn to have patience. If Christ comes
this spring, we shall not need it long; and if he comes not, we
shall need much more. I am prepared for the worst, and hope
for the best. God will not forsake us, unless we forsake him....
“‘It is a small thing to be judged of man’s judgment, says
the apostle; so that you need not fear man. I have often been
consigned to perdition, and yet I have a blessed hope. I often
think, when I hear a brother judging and condemning
another, what an excellent pope he would make. Therefore,
fear them not; for if we judge and condemn our brother, we
are making ourselves “judges of the law, rather than doers of
the law.” ...
“‘Wm. Miller.’

We find in the Signs of the Times for March 12, 1845, a statement
from Mr. Miller relative to himself and the Bible, taken from The
Investigator, an infidel paper published in Boston.

“‘TO THE EDITOR OF THE INVESTIGATOR.

“‘Sir,—Your kind offer to publish all the letters from those
who have been converted from infidelity to Millerism, prompts
me to give you a short account of my own conversion, which
may enable you the better to judge what Millerism is.
“‘When I was of age, I settled in a village where all the
heads of the families were deists, as they were then called,
and they put into my hands all the deistical writings of that
age. I soon became one of them, and the consequence was, I
denied the Bible being of divine origin, calling it a “book of
priestcraft,” and argued that the professors of it themselves
must, if honest, concede that it could not be from God;
because it professed to be a revelation from God, and yet
more than half was a mystery which could not be understood.
And some went as far as to say we ought not to try to
understand it. This, to my mind, was a plain and palpable
contradiction. I therefore rejected the Bible, when I ought to
have rejected the expounders of it. Thus, from 1804 to 1816,
I was a firm, and, as I then thought, a consistent, opposer of
the Christian faith. In 1816, by the grace of God, my eyes
were opened to see the weakness and folly of my own faith,
founded on nothing but the philosophy, assumptions and
fancies of erring mortals. I saw a great want of evidence for a
faith in these matters, more substantial and certain than
anything I then had. I felt in my inmost soul that eternal
consequences might hang upon my faith in these things, for
anything to the contrary which I could show. I had often
laughed at my Christian friends for having a “blind faith,”
believing what they could not understand. I now saw that my
faith was as blind as theirs, if not more so, for I could prove
nothing hereafter, and of course I had no reasonable hope.
“‘This brought me to examine for myself the evidence of
the Christian’s hope. I therefore laid by my former prejudices,
prepossessions, commentators, writers, pro and con, and
determined in my own mind to examine the Bible for myself.
And if the Bible did prove itself to be of divine origin, I would
believe it, let the consequences be as they might; but if it did
not, then I would reject it and be a deist still. Then I began
the Bible, determined in my own mind to know whether God
or man was the author. I spent the greater part of two years
in reading and comparing scripture with scripture, prophecy
with history, and I had not gone half through with the reading
of it, before I was perfectly satisfied of its divine origin. No
mortal man, or men, could have written with such harmony,
wisdom, and truth, without inspiration. The Bible answered all
my inquiries, settled all my doubts, established my faith, and
gave me hope which has been nearly or quite twenty-seven
years an anchor to my soul. I have seen much of it fulfilled,
since then, and I can truly say, If there is any one thing on
earth which I love above all others, it is the Bible.
“‘And now, sir, let me tell you, Millerism is to believe, try to
understand, love, and proclaim to others, the good news
contained in the Bible. This is all I have ever done to call
down the slander of the several sects which I have received. I
can say, honestly, I have never designed to proclaim or
publish any sentiment, word, or doctrine, but such as I found
clearly taught in that blessed inspired volume. Let God be my
judge, I know I believe it. And I pray God that you, my dear
sir, may become a Millerite too.
“‘For I believe there is no religion in our world that gives
such a blessed hope as the religion of the Bible. All others are
dark and incomprehensible concerning a future state. “To be,
or not to be,” was a question which the ancient philosophers
of Greece and Rome could never settle among themselves.
Nor all the wisdom of our modern writers were able to settle
this important point for our hope. But you will acknowledge, if
the Bible is the word of inspiration, then that point is forever
settled, and we have an answer to the question of immortality
and eternal life.
“‘I admire your frankness and generosity as an opponent,
and believe you are not wishing to bind men to your
particular views or creed; but are willing to search yourself,
and to let all others search for true light, on so important a
subject as I think this matter is,—the truth or falsity of what I
call the blessed Bible. I have strong hope, my dear sir, that
you will give this subject a thorough investigation. As it
respects the statement of Bro. Himes, if you will keep open
your columns as fairly as you hitherto have done, you will
soon be convinced it was not a very random shot. I am, sir, a
lover of an honest man. Yours, &c.,
“‘Wm. Miller.’
 CHAPTER XVII.
MUTUAL CONFERENCE AT ALBANY—DECLARATION OF
PRINCIPLES—PLAN OF OPERATIONS—ADDRESS TO
THE BRETHREN—ACTION OF THE CONFERENCE
DEFENDED BY MR. MILLER, ETC.

“On the 23d of April, Mr. Miller, in company with Mr. Himes, visited
Albany, and commenced a course of lectures on the prophecies. Mr.
M. spoke with his usual clearness and ability, was in good spirits, and
was listened to by a large and respectful audience.
“On the 29th, the Conference assembled at 9 a. m., at the ‘House
of Prayer,’ in Grand street. After singing, and a prayer by Mr. Miller, it
was temporarily organized by the choice of Mr. Miller, Chairman, and
Mr. Himes, Secretary, who stated the objects for which the
Conference had been called, namely, ‘to consult together respecting
the condition and wants of brethren in the several sections of the
country; that we may be better enabled to act in concert, and with
more efficiency, in the promulgation of gospel truths.’
“After the names and residences of members were ascertained,
the Conference was fully organized by the choice of Rev. Elon
Galusha, of Lockport, N. Y., President, and S. Bliss and O. R. Fassett,
Secretaries.
“A committee of twelve, consisting of William Miller, Josiah Litch,
N. N. Whiting, J. V. Himes, Sylvester Bliss, L. D. Fleming, Erastus
Parker, H. Caswell, I. R. Gates, I. H. Shipman, Prosper Powell, and
Elon Galusha, were appointed to arrange business for the action of
the Conference. While they were thus engaged, the others were
profitably occupied in listening to statements of the condition of
things in different sections of the country. The committee reported,
in part, on the second day, and in full on the third and last day of
the session as follows:—
 “‘REPORT OF THE COMMITTEE TO THE CONFERENCE.
“‘Your committee, appointed for the purpose of taking into
consideration the great principles upon which we can unite
and act in advancing the cause of truth, for the edification of
the body of Christ, the salvation of souls, and the preparation
of man for the near advent of the Saviour, submit the
following report:—
“‘In view of the many conflicting opinions, unscriptural
views, leading to unseemly practices, and the sad divisions
which have been thereby caused by some professing to be
Adventists, we deem it incumbent on us to declare to the
world our belief that the Scriptures teach, among others, the
following
“‘IMPORTANT TRUTHS.
“‘1. That the heavens and earth which are now, by the
word of God, are kept in store, reserved unto fire against the
day of Judgment and perdition of ungodly men. That the day
of the Lord will come as a thief in the night, in the which the
heavens shall pass away with a great noise, and the elements
shall melt with fervent heat; the earth also, and the works
that are therein, shall be burned up. That the Lord will create
new heavens and a new earth, wherein righteousness—that
is, the righteous—will forever dwell.[30] And that the kingdom
and the dominion under the whole heaven shall be given to
the people of the saints of the Most High, whose kingdom is
an everlasting kingdom, and all dominions shall serve and
obey him.[31]
“‘2. That there are but two advents or appearings of the
Saviour to this earth.[32] That both are personal and visible.
[33] That the first took place in the days of Herod,[34] when

he was conceived of the Holy Ghost,[35] born of the Virgin

Mary,[36] went about doing good,[37] suffered on the cross,
the just for the unjust,[38] died,[39] was buried,[40] arose
again the third day, the first-fruits of them that slept,[41] and
ascended into the heavens,[42] which must receive him until
the times of the restitution of all things, spoken of by the
mouth of all the holy prophets.[43] That the second coming or
appearing will take place when he shall descend from
Heaven, at the sounding of the last trump, to give his people
rest,[44] being revealed from heaven in flaming fire, taking
vengeance on them that know not God, and obey not the
gospel.[45] And that he will judge the quick and the dead at
his appearing and kingdom.[46]
“‘3. That the second coming or appearing is indicated to be
now emphatically nigh, even at the doors,[47] by the
chronology of the prophetic periods,[48] the fulfillment of
prophecy,[49] and the signs of the times.[50] And that this
truth should be preached both to saints and sinners, that the
first may rejoice, knowing their redemption draweth nigh,[51]
and the last be warned to flee from the wrath to come,[52]
before the Master of the house shall rise up and shut to the
door.[53]
“‘4. That the condition of salvation is repentance toward
God, and faith in our Lord Jesus Christ.[54] And that those
who have repentance and faith will live soberly, and
righteously, and godly, in this present world, looking for that
blessed hope, and the glorious appearing of the great God
and our Saviour Jesus Christ.[55]
“‘5. That there will be a resurrection of the bodies of all the
dead,[56] both of the just and the unjust.[57] That those who
are Christ’s will be raised at his coming.[58] That the rest of
the dead will not live again until after a thousand years.[59]
And that the saints shall not all sleep, but shall be changed in
the twinkling of an eye at the last trump.[60]
“‘6. That the only millennium taught in the word of God is
the thousand years which are to intervene between the first
resurrection and that of the rest of the dead, as inculcated in
the 20th of Revelation.[61] And that the various portions of
scripture which refer to the millennial state are to have their
fulfillment after the resurrection of all the saints who sleep in
Jesus.[62]
“‘7. That the promise, that Abraham should be the heir of
the world, was not to him, or to his seed, through the law,
but through the righteousness of faith.[63] That they are not
all Israel which are of Israel.[64] That there is no difference,
under the gospel dispensation, between Jew and Gentile.[65]
That the middle wall of partition that was between them is
broken down, no more to be rebuilt.[66] That God will render
to every man according to his deeds.[67] That if we are
Christ’s, then are we Abraham’s seed, and heirs according to
the promise.[68] And that the only restoration of Israel, yet
future, is the restoration of the saints to the earth, created
anew, when God shall open the graves of those descendants
of Abraham who died in faith, without receiving the promise,
with the believing Gentiles who have been grafted in with
them into the same olive tree; and shall cause them to come
up out of their graves, and bring them, with the living, who
are changed, into the land of Israel.[69]
“‘8. That there is no promise of this world’s conversion.[70]
That the horn of papacy will war with the saints, and prevail
against them, until the Ancient of Days shall come, and
judgment be given to the saints of the Most High, and the
time come that the saints possess the kingdom.[71] That the
children of the kingdom, and the children of the wicked one,
will continue together until the end of the world, when all
things that offend shall be gathered out of the kingdom, and
the righteous shall shine forth as the sun in the kingdom of
their Father.[72] That the man of sin will only be destroyed by
the brightness of Christ’s coming.[73] And that the nations of
those which are saved and redeemed to God by the blood of
Christ, out of every kindred, and tongue, and people, and
nation, will be made kings and priests unto God, to reign
forever on the earth.[74]
“‘9. That it is the duty of the ministers of the word to
continue in the work of preaching the gospel to every
creature, even unto the end,[75] calling upon them to repent,
in view of the fact that the kingdom of Heaven is at hand;[76]
that their sins may be blotted out when the times of
refreshing shall come from the presence of the Lord.[77]
“‘10. That the departed saints do not enter their
inheritance, or receive their crowns, at death.[78] That they
without us cannot be made perfect.[79] That their inheritance,
incorruptible and undefiled, and that fadeth not away, is
reserved in Heaven, ready to be revealed in the last time.[80]
That there are laid up for them and us crowns of
righteousness, which the Lord, the righteous Judge, shall give
at the day of Christ to all that love his appearing.[81] That
they will only be satisfied when they awake in Christ’s
likeness.[82] And that, when the Son of man shall come in his
glory, and all the holy angels with him, the King will say to
those on his right hand, “Come, ye blessed of my Father,
inherit the kingdom prepared for you from the foundation of
the world.”[83] Then they will be equal to the angels, being
the children of God and of the resurrection.[84]
“‘ASSOCIATED ACTION.
 “‘We are induced, from present circumstances affecting our
spiritual interests, to present, for your consideration, a few
ideas touching associated action.
“‘Order is Heaven’s first law. All things emanating from God
are constituted on principles of perfect order. The New
Testament rules for the government of the church we regard
as binding on the whole brotherhood of Christ. No
circumstances can justify us in departing from the usages
established by Christ and his apostles.
“‘We regard any congregation of believers, who habitually
assemble for the worship of God and the due observance of
gospel ordinances, as a church of Christ. As such, it is an
independent body, accountable only to the great Head of the
church. To all such we recommend a careful examination of
the Scriptures, and the adoption of such principles of
association and order as are in accordance therewith, that
they may enjoy the advantages of that church relation which
Christ has instituted.
“‘PLAN OF OPERATIONS.
“‘In the midst of our disappointed hopes of seeing the King
of glory, and being made like him, and still finding ourselves
in a world of sin, snares, and death, the question forces itself
upon us, What now is our work?
“‘To us it seems clear that our first work is to make straight
paths for our feet, lest that which is lame be turned out of the
way. We are in duty bound to give the household meat in due
season, and to build ourselves up in our most holy faith.
While doing this, we are to continue in obedience to the great
commission, to preach the gospel to every creature; so long
as the love of Christ dwells in us, it will constrain us. We shall
not be released, while in our present state, from our
obligations to be “workers, together with God,” in saving
those for whom the Redeemer died. It is evident that the
 duty, which of right devolves on every minister of the gospel,
of proclaiming the hour of God’s judgment, is, if performed at
all, to be done by those who are convinced of its truth....’

“The above, after a full discussion and careful examination, was

unanimously adopted; as was also, from the pen of Mr. Miller, the
following

“‘ADDRESS TO THE BRETHREN.

“‘The present state of our faith and hope, with the severe
trials which many of us experience, call for much brotherly
love, forbearance, patience, and prayer. No cause, be it ever
so holy, can exist in this present world, without its attendant
evils. Therefore, it becomes necessary for all who are
connected with this cause to exercise great charity; for
charity covers a multitude of sins.
“‘The cause we advocate calls upon all men to read the
word of God, and to reason, judge, compare, and digest for
themselves. This is certainly right, and is the privilege of all
rational members of the community. Yet this very liberty may
become a stumbling-block to many, and without charity, be
the means of scattering, dividing, and causing contention
among brethren. Human nature is such that those who are
governed by a desire to rule over others will seize the reins,
and think all must bow to their decision; while others will
think such unfit for the station they assume. James foresaw
the evils under which we labor, and gives us a caution in his
third chapter, to which we shall do well to take heed. Our
present difficulties arise more from the multiplicity of masters
and leaders among us (some of whom are governed by carnal
motives) than from any want of light. The word of God
affords light enough to guide us in all cases, “that the man of
God may be perfect, thoroughly furnished unto every good
work.” But among the thousand-and-one expositions of
Scripture, which are every day being palmed upon us, some
of them, at least, must be wrong. Many of them are so weak
and silly that they bring a stigma on the blessed book,
confuse the mind of the inquirer after truth, and divide the
children of God.
“‘To remedy this evil, we must learn to judge men and
principles by their fruits, and not be too hasty in receiving the
exposition which may be presented by every pretender to
wisdom and sanctity. Any exposition of Scripture which
conflicts with other texts must be spurious. Any man whose
object is to obtain followers must be avoided. Whatever
produces envy and strife, brethren, is of the devil; and we
must resist his temptations in their beginning. If God has
been with us from the commencement of our illumination
respecting the hope of his glorious appearing, shall we
abandon the truth wherein our souls have been comforted,
and our brotherly love established, for fables? We ought to be
careful lest we grieve the Holy Spirit. How did we receive this
doctrine at first? Was it not by searching the word of God,
and a careful comparison of scripture with scripture? Yes; our
faith did not rest on the word of man. We then required
chapter and verse, or we would not believe. Why should we
leave our former rule of faith, to follow the vain and changing
opinions of men? Some are neglecting the lamp, and seeking
to walk by sparks of their own kindling. There is a propensity
in many to make all prophecy apply to our time and country.
Others have split on this rock. Some of the best writers and
commentators have thus erred. They have, in many
instances, considered themselves, their sect, or their nation,
as the peculiar favorites of Heaven; and have therefore often
failed to apply prophecy aright. An Englishman, writing on
prophecy, will make the English territory the principal place of
action—the Frenchman, France—the German, Germany—and
an American, the United States. So is it with all sectarians.
When minds are contracted by selfishness and bigotry, they