Session - 06 To 09 Notes
Session - 06 To 09 Notes
Overall
Assessment Weightage CLO
Weightage
Component % Schedule Number
%
Quiz – 1 After 4th session
Quiz – 2 6% each After 10thsession
12% 1, 2 & 3
Quiz – 3 Best 2 out of 3 After 20thsession
Mid-Term Exam 18% As per schedule 18% 1, 2 & 3
Group Assignment 1 15% After 5th session
Group Assignment 2
30% 1, 2, 3 & 4
(Library Assignment) 15% After 15nd session
No Description No Description
1 Introduction to Descriptive Statistics Hypothesis Testing for Large Sample: Two Samples
19
2 Measures of Central Tendency Test for difference between Means
3 Measures of Dispersion Hypothesis Testing for Small Sample: Two Samples
20
4 & 5 Descriptive Statistics using MS Excel Test for difference between Means - 1
6 & 7 Introduction to Probability Hypothesis Testing for Small Sample: Two Samples
21
8 Discrete Prob. Distribution: Binomial Distribution Test for difference between Means - 2
9 Discrete Prob. Distribution: Poisson Hypothesis Testing for Small Sample: Two Samples
22
10 Continuous Prob. Distribution: Normal Distribution Test for difference between Means - 3
11 Application of Normal Distribution 23 Chi Square Tests: Test of Independence
12 Sampling Distribution 24 Chi Square Tests
13 Sampling Distribution of Sample mean 25 Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
14 & 15 Interval Estimation 26 Simple Correlation & Simple Regression Analysis
16 Hypothesis Testing Regression Analysis: Assumptions and Test for
27
Hypothesis Testing for Large Sample: Single Sample Significance
17
Test for Mean 28 Regression Analysis: Estimated Regression Equation
Hypothesis Testing for Small Sample: Single Sample 29 Regression Analysis: Using MS Excel
18
Test for Mean 30 Introduction to Multiple Linear Regression
Future….
In Our Life…
As a Manager….
• What is the chance that an employee will leave our company in next 6
months?
• Can we finish the required training in 3 months?
• What is the chance that job market will be good in next year?
• Will a person who has been promoted will perform well in the new
role?
•…
•…
Assigning Probabilities
You have five books and are going to select three are to read.
n! 5! 120
n Cx 10
X!(n X )! 3!(5 3)! (6)(2)
Counting Rules
• Permutations: The number of ways of arranging “n” objects selected
from “N” objects in order is
You have five books and are going to put three on your desk.
n! 5! 120
n Px 60
(n X )! (5 3)! 2
Counting Rules
Assigning Probabilities
Required Outcome / Total Possible Outcome
• Classical Method
• Subjective Method
Rules of Probability
Probability:
Suppose that a survey is conducted in which 500 families with three children
are asked to disclose the gender of their children. Based on the results, it was
found that 180 of the families had two boys and one girl.
(a) Estimate the probability of having two boys and one girl in a three-child
family using the empirical method.
(b) Compute and interpret the probability of having two boys and one girl in a
three child family using the classical method, assuming boys and girls are
equally likely.
Probability:
Ans: 3 / 8
Probability:
Complement of An Event
Probability: Basic Relationship
Addition Law:
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B
Probability: Basic Relationship
Addition Law:
Addition Law:
A B
Addition Law:
Conditional Probability:
The probability of an event given that another event
has occurred
The conditional probability of A given B is
denoted by P(A|B).
P( A B)
P( A|B)
P( B)
Probability: Basic Relationship
Conditional Probability:
P( A B)
P( A|B)
P( B)
Probability: Basic Relationship
Conditional Probability:
P( A B)
P( A|B)
P( B)
Sample
Space - S
A B
Probability: Basic Relationship
Conditional Probability:
Conditional Probability:
• Prob. that selected person is Manager given that she is Female 3/55
• Find out if there is any gender bias in getting Managerial position Yes
Probability Distribution
Probability Distribution
No of Boys Prob.
0
1
2
3
Probability Distribution
No of Boys Prob.
0 1/8
1 3/8
2 3/8
3 1/8
Probability Distribution
Random Variable:
• Random Variable: numerical description of the outcome of an
experiment
• How:
• Based on experimental outcomes
• Using special mathematical formula
Probability Distribution
• Conditions:
f(x) > 0, f(x) = 1
Probability Distribution
80/200
Number
Units Sold of Days x f(x)
0 80 0 .40
1 50 1 .25
2 40 2 .20
3 10 3 .05
4 20 4 .10
200 1.00
ProbabilityProbability
Distribution Distribution
.50
.40
80/200
Probability
.30
.20 Number
Units Sold of Days x f(x)
.10
0 80 0 .40
1 50 1 .25
0 1 2 3 4
2 40 2 .20
Values of Random Variable x (TV sales) 3 .05
3 10
4 20 4 .10
200 1.00
Probability Distribution
Expected Value:
The expected value, or mean, of a random variable
is a measure of its central location.
E(x) = = xf(x)
Probability Distribution: ? ? ?
Expected Value: ? ? ?
Binomial Probability
Distribution
Probability Distribution: Binomial Prob. Dist.
Four Properties
1. The experiment consists of a sequence of n
identical trials.
2. Two outcomes, success and failure, are possible
on each trial.
Probability Function
n!
f (x) p x (1 p )( n x )
x !(n x )!
where:
x = the number of successes
p = the probability of a success on one trial
n = the number of trials
f(x) = the probability of x successes in n trials
n! = n(n – 1)(n – 2) ….. (2)(1)
Probability Distribution: Binomial Prob. Dist.
Let: p = .10, n = 3, x = 1
n!
f ( x) p x (1 p ) ( n x )
x !( n x )!
3!
f (1) (0.1)1 (0.9)2 3(.1)(.81) .243
1!(3 1)!
Probability Distribution: Binomial Prob. Dist.
Probability Distribution: Binomial Prob. Dist.
= 3 x 0.0810
E(x) = = np
Var(x) = 2 = np(1 p)
Probability Distribution: Binomial Prob. Dist.
Ans: 3 / 8
Probability Distribution: Binomial
Binomial Probability Distribution Prob. Dist.
Evans Electronics is concerned about a low retention rate for its employees.
In recent years, management has seen a turnover of 20% of the hourly
employees annually. Thus, for any hourly employee chosen at random,
management estimates a probability of 0.2 that the person will not be with
the company next year.
Choosing 10 hourly employees at random, what is the probability that
maximum 2 of them will leave the company this year?
Reqd. Probability = f(0) + f(1) + f(2)
Probability Distribution: Binomial
Binomial Probability Distribution Prob. Dist.
Evans Electronics is concerned about
a low retention rate for its
employees. In recent years,
management has seen a turnover of
20% of the hourly employees
annually. Thus, for any hourly Reqd. Probability = f(0) + f(1) + f(2)
employee chosen at random,
management estimates a probability
of 0.2 that the person will not be
x f(x) Total
with the company next year. 0
Choosing 10 hourly employees at
random, what is the probability that 1
maximum 2 of them will leave the 2
company this year?
Probability Distribution: Binomial
Binomial Probability Distribution Prob. Dist.
Evans Electronics is concerned about
a low retention rate for its
employees. In recent years,
management has seen a turnover of
20% of the hourly employees
annually. Thus, for any hourly Reqd. Probability = f(0) + f(1) + f(2)
employee chosen at random,
management estimates a probability
of 0.2 that the person will not be
x f(x) Total
with the company next year. 0 0.1074
Choosing 10 hourly employees at
random, what is the probability that 1 0.2684
maximum 2 of them will leave the 2 0.3020
company this year?
Probability Distribution: Binomial
Binomial Probability Distribution Prob. Dist.
Evans Electronics is concerned about
a low retention rate for its
employees. In recent years,
management has seen a turnover of
20% of the hourly employees
annually. Thus, for any hourly Reqd. Probability = f(0) + f(1) + f(2)
employee chosen at random,
management estimates a probability
of 0.2 that the person will not be x f(x) Total
with the company next year. 0 0.1074
Choosing 10 hourly employees at
random, what is the probability that 1 0.2684 0.6778
maximum 2 of them will leave the
company this year?
2 0.3020
Probability Distribution: Binomial
Binomial Probability Distribution Prob. Dist.
Evans Electronics is concerned about a
low retention rate for its employees. In
recent years, management has seen a
turnover of 20% of the hourly x f(x)
employees annually. Thus, for any 0
hourly employee chosen at random, 1
management estimates a probability of 2
0.2 that the person will not be with the 3
company next year. 4
Choosing 10 hourly employees at 5
random, what is the probability that 6
maximum 2 of them will leave the 7
company this year? 8
9
10
Probability Distribution: Binomial
Binomial Probability Distribution Prob. Dist.
Evans Electronics is concerned about
a low retention rate for its
employees. In recent years,
management has seen a turnover of x f(x)
=BINOM.DIST( x, n, p, 0)
Probability Distribution: Binomial
Binomial Probability Distribution Prob. Dist.
Probability Distribution: Binomial Prob. Dist.
A Gallup survey found that 65% of all financial consumers were very satisfied with
their primary financial institution. Suppose that 25 financial consumers are
sampled and if the Gallup survey result still holds true today, what is the
probability that exactly 19 are very satisfied with their primary financial institution?
Probability Distribution: Binomial Prob. Dist.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, approximately 6% of all workers in
Jackson, Mississippi, are unemployed. In conducting a random telephone
survey in Jackson, what is the probability of getting two or fewer
unemployed workers in a sample of 20?
Probability Distribution: Binomial Prob. Dist.
According to Information Resources, which publishes data on market share
for various products, Oreos control about 10% of the market for cookie
brands. Suppose 20 purchasers of cookies are selected randomly from the
population. What is the probability that fewer than four purchasers choose
Oreos?
n = 20, p = 0.10, and x < 4.
Probability Distribution: Binomial Prob. Dist.
What is the first big change that American drivers made due to higher
gas prices? According to an Access America survey, 30% said that it was
cutting recreational driving. However, 27% said that it was consolidating
or reducing errands. If these figures are true for all American drivers, and
if 20 such drivers are randomly sampled and asked what is the first big
change they made due to higher gas prices,
a. What is the probability that exactly 8 said that it was consolidating or
reducing errands? n=20, p=0.27, x=8 Ans: 0.0815
b. What is the probability that none of them said that it was cutting
recreational driving? n=20, p=0.30, x=0 Ans: 0.0008
c. What is the probability that more than 7 said that it was cutting
recreational driving? n=20, p=0.27, x>7 Ans: 0.1454
Probability Distribution: Binomial Prob. Dist.
A manufacturing company produces 10,000 plastic mugs per week. This company
supplies mugs to another company, which packages the mugs as part of picnic
sets. The second company randomly samples 10 mugs sent from the supplier. If
two or fewer of the sampled mugs are defective, the second company accepts the
lot. What is the probability that the lot will be accepted if the mug manufacturing
company actually is producing mugs that are 10% defective? 20% defective? 30%
defective? 40% defective?
n = 10, x <= 2
Probability Distribution: Binomial Prob. Dist.
Examples:
1) Potholes in 1 KM of Road
2) Arrival of Vehicles on Toll
Plaza in One Hour
Properties:
where:
x = the number of occurrences in an interval
f(x) = the probability of x occurrences in an
interval
= mean number of occurrences in an
interval
e = 2.71828
Probability Distribution: Poisson Prob. Dist.
Poisson Probabilities
0.25
0.20
Probability Actually,
0.15 the sequence
continues:
0.10 11, 12, 13 …
0.05
0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number of Arrivals in 30 Minutes
Probability Distribution: Poisson Prob. Dist.
µ = 1.20
= POISSON(x, µ, 0)
Number
Units Sold of Days x f(x)
0 80 0 .40
1 50 1 .25
2 40 2 .20
3 10 3 .05
4 20 4 .10
200 1.00
Probability Distribution: Poisson Prob. Dist.
µ = 1.20
= POISSON(x, µ, 0)
x p(x)
0
1
x f(x) 2
0 .40 3
1 .25 4
2 .20 5
3 .05 6
4 .10 7
1.00
Probability Distribution: Poisson Prob. Dist.
µ = 1.20
= POISSON(x, µ, 0)
x p(x)
0 0.301
1 0.361
x f(x) 2 0.216
0 .40 3 0.086
1 .25 4 0.026
2 .20 5 0.006
3 .05 6 0.001
4 .10 7 0.000
1.00
Probability Distribution: Poisson Prob. Dist.
Bank customers arrive randomly on weekday afternoons at an average of 3.2
customers every 4 minutes. What is the probability of having more than 7
customers in a 4-minute interval on a weekday afternoon?
u u
u
Probability Distribution: Poisson Prob. Dist.
A bank has an average random arrival rate of 3.2 customers every 4
minutes. What is the probability of getting exactly 10 customers during
an 8-minute interval?
Flaws Probability
0 0.461
1 0.285
2 0.129
3 0.087
4 0.038
Probability Distribution:
3) On Monday mornings, the First National Bank only has one teller window open for
deposits and withdrawals. Experience has shown that the average number of arriving
customers in a four-minute interval on Monday mornings is 2.8, and each teller can serve
more than that number efficiently. What is the probability that on a Monday morning
exactly six customers will arrive in a four-minute interval? Also, find the probability that
no one will arrive at the bank to make a deposit or withdrawal during a four-minute
interval?
Probability Distribution:
4) A machine is used in a production process. From past data, it is known that 97% of the
time the machine is set up correctly. Furthermore, it is known that if the machine is set up
correctly, it produces 95% acceptable (non-defective) items. However, when it is set up
incorrectly, it produces only 40% acceptable items. If we randomly select 10 items,
produced by this machine, what is the probability that we will find all 10 good items?
Probability Distribution:
5) From past data, it is known that 97% of the time the selection of candidate is correct.
Furthermore, it is known that if the candidate is selected correctly, he/she performs well
for around 98% of the time. However, when it is realized that candidate selection is not
correct, he/she performs only 70% of the time. In your client organization they have 1,000
employees, what is the probability that we will find 10 non-performing employee?
Thank You!
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