Theoretical and Applied Climatology (2023) 151:1079–1094

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04319-7

ORIGINAL PAPER

The interannual variability of shallow meridional overturning

circulation and its association with the south‑west Indian Ocean heat
content variability
Rahul U. Pai1,2 · Anant Parekh1 · Jasti S. Chowdary1 · C. Gnanaseelan1

Received: 5 November 2021 / Accepted: 3 December 2022 / Published online: 17 December 2022
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2022

Abstract
The present study examines the interannual variability of the Indian Ocean Shallow Meridional Overturning Circulation
(SMOC) using century-long reanalysis data. The strength of the transport associated with SMOC is calculated using meridi-
onal overturning stream function. The highest SMOC variability is found between the latitudes 5° S and 15° S, which
displayed enhancement in amplitude after 1940s. Strong and weak SMOC years are identified using standard deviation
threshold. Strong SMOC years composite displayed excess southward transport (~ 2.5 Sv) and subduction over the South
Indian Ocean. The associated southward heat transport (~ 0.25 PW) reduced the sea level and upper 200 m ocean heat con-
tent (OHC) over the Southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO). On the other hand, weaker SMOC years composite displayed weak
heat transport, increased sea level and OHC over the SWIO. Tide gauge and satellite observations also displayed similar
variation in sea level for respective phases of SMOC. Further analysis reveals that the SMOC variability is primarily driven
by changes in the zonal wind stress south of the equator and displays close association with the Southern Oscillation Index.
The Ocean model-based sensitivity experiments confirm that the OHC variability over SWIO is closely associated with the
SMOC variability and is primarily driven by local wind forcing as a response to El Niño Southern Oscillation. However,
the role of remote forcing from Pacific through oceanic pathway over SWIO is not evident. The present study provides a
comprehensive understanding of the interannual variability of SMOC and its linkage to sea level and OHC variability over
SWIO during the last century.

1 Introduction off Somalia) and the subduction zone in the southeastern

Indian Ocean, forming a cross-equatorial cell (CEC, Gar-
The ocean’s ability to store and transport heat makes it an ternicht and Schott 1997; Lee and Marotzke 1997; Miyama
important component of the climate system. Large scale sur- et al. 2003). A part of the subsurface equatorward trans-
face winds in the Tropical Indian Ocean produce a meridi- ported water from the subduction zone is upwelled at Sey-
onal circulation which plays a crucial role in the heat and chelles thermocline ridge forming a shallow subtropical cell
salt budget of the Indian Ocean (e.g., Schott et al. 2002; (STC) in South Indian Ocean. The CEC and STC collec-
Horii et al. 2013). On an annual scale, the main forcing tively form the shallow meridional overturning circulation
responsible for Indian Ocean meridional circulation is the (SMOC) of the Indian Ocean and are mostly confined to the
southwest monsoon wind stress north of equator (dominated upper 500 m (Miyama et al. 2003). Schoenefeldt and Schott
by westerly winds) and easterly winds south of the equator (2006) reported that the mean southward transport across
result, the southward Ekman transport in both sides of the the equator by CEC is 6 Sv (1 Sv = ­106 ­m3 ­s−1) and heat
equator (Schott et al. 2002). Southward transports connect transport is − 0.24 PW (1PW = ­1015 W). SMOC variability
the upwelling zones in the Northern Hemisphere (primarily considerably influences the redistribution of ocean heat, salt
by transporting water mass and its properties between trop-
ics and subtropics (McPhaden and Zhang 2002, 2004; Zhang
* Rahul U. Pai
[email protected] and McPhaden 2006).
Studies reported that the SMOC displays variability from
1
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India seasonal to decadal time scales (Wang and McPhaden 2017;
2
Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune, India Lee 2004; Schoenefeldt and Schott 2006). A significant

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1080 R. U. Pai et al.

interannual variability of both CEC and STC is also reported The linkage between the SMOC variability and SIO Heat
by several studies (e.g., Schott et al. 2004; Meng et al. 2020). Content and sea level is also explored. Section 2 discusses
Ruijin et al. (2005) reported that the interannual variabil- the details of datasets, model experiments, and methodology
ity of the meridional heat transport across the equator and used in the study. The validation of meridional currents of
sea surface temperature (SST) in the north Indian Ocean reanalysis data with observations is provided in Section 3.
are closely related. Horii et al. (2013) studied seasonal to Results related to SMOC variability is discussed in Sec-
interannual variability of meridional currents using acoustic tion 4. Sections 5 and 6 provide detailed descriptions of the
Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) at the central equatorial impact of heat transport variability associated with SMOC
Indian Ocean (at 0°, 90° E) for the period 2002–2009. A sig- on heat content, thermocline depth and sea level and the
nificant correlation (~ 0.6) was found between the observed causes of variability, respectively. The summary and conclu-
meridional transport and the Niño 3.4 index during the peak sion of the study are discussed in Section 7.
phase of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). They also
suggested that the net meridional volume and heat trans-
ports are found to be more than normal southward transport 2 Datasets used, experiment details,
when El Niño conditions occurred in the tropical equato- and methodology
rial Pacific. Contrary to this, lesser than normal southward
transport was observed during La Niña years. This suggests 2.1 Datasets used
the importance of remote forcing in modulating the SMOC
mainly on the interannual time scale. Various observational and reanalysis datasets are used for
A recent study by Meng et al. (2020) found that CEC and the present study. Ocean Surface Current Analyses Real-
STC exhibited significant variability on interannual to dec- time (OSCAR) upper ocean current based on satellite data
adal timescales during 1958–2017 using reanalysis data and for the period of 1993–2009 are used as observed currents
CEC and STC were negatively correlated during the study for validating model simulated upper ocean currents (https://​
period. Chirokova and Webster (2006) studied interannual www.​esr.​org/​resea​rch/​oscar/​data-​access/). Sikhakolli et al.
variability of Indian Ocean heat transport and found that (2013) reported that over the Tropical Indian Ocean OSCAR
the majority of the variability was associated with Ekman product is able to capture the variability of the well-known
transport with maximum seen between the latitude 10° S surface current systems reasonably well. OSCAR has pro-
to 20° S. The subtropical Southern Indian Ocean (SIO) is vided unprecedented information about global upper ocean
experiencing variation in heat accumulation, which effect currents (upper 30 m averaged). In addition, the in situ meas-
to regional sea level variability (Volkov et al., 2020). The urements from ADCP mooring deployed by Japan Agency
variability of heat content and sea level in the SIO is strongly for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) at
influenced by large-scale climatic forcing in the Indo-Pacific 90° E on the equator, which offers sub surface observations
region (Meng et al. 2020; Zhuang et al. 2013; Feng et al. of monthly horizontal currents, are used for validation. The
2010). The remote effect on the SIO heat content is possible data is available between the depths of 40 and 340 m with
by oceanic pathway changes in the upper-ocean heat con- 8 m vertical resolution for the period November 2000 to
tent in the western equatorial Pacific or/and local changes in March 2009 (Masumoto et al. 2005). The dataset is available
wind forcing in the SIO atmospheric pathway (Volkov et al., at https://​www.​pmel.​noaa.​gov/​tao/​drupal/​disdel/.
2020). Lee et al. (2015) concluded that the Indian Ocean has The ocean reanalysis product, Simple Ocean Data Assim-
become increasingly important in modulating global climate ilation (SODA) version 2.2.4 (Carton and Giese 2008) is
variability. Above discussion warrants for a detailed study used in this study (http://​apdrc.​soest.​hawaii.​edu/​datad​oc/​
of SMOC variability and its impact on heat transport and soda_2.​2.4.​php). It is an extended ocean reanalysis prod-
associated ocean heat content variability of the SIO. Con- uct using the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) ocean model
sidering the spatio-temporal constraints in observational and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
data a detailed understanding of the SMOC variability was (NOAA)/National Centers for Environmental Prediction
not possible. Century long ocean reanalysis data provided Twentieth Century Reconstruction version 2 winds (Giese
unprecedented opportunity to study the variability of SMOC and Ray 2011). It provides an estimate of the ocean on a
during the last century and its impact on SIO heat content, 0.5° × 0.5° grid with 40 vertical levels for the period of
sea level and temperature variability. This study attempts to 1871–2010. A summary of recent improvements in ocean
understand the interannual variability of SMOC during last reanalysis, along with an evaluation of their uncertain-
century using reanalysis dataset. The study also examines ties, is provided by Balmaseda et al. (2015). In addition,
the relative contribution of local wind forcing and remote data from Ocean Reanalysis System version 4 (ORAS4), a
forcing from the Pacific through Indonesian Throughflow reanalysis product of European Center for Medium range
(ITF) over Indian Ocean with the help of model experiments. Weather Forecast (ECMWF) is also used (https://​www.​cen.​

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The interannual variability of shallow meridional overturning circulation and its association… 1081

uni-​hambu​rg.​de/​en/​icdc/​data/​ocean/​easy-​init-​ocean/​ecmwf-​ air temperature, monthly surface precipitation, and annual

ocean-​reana​lysis-​system-​4-​oras4.​html). It is forced by the river runoff for period 1948–2009 (Large and Yeager 2009),
ERA-Interim reanalysis fluxes, uses Nucleus for European which are used for model-based experiments.
Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) model (Madec 2008), the
horizontal resolution is 1° in the extra tropics and a meridi-
onal resolution of 0.3° at the equator. It has 42 vertical levels 2.2 Model and experiment details
with 18 of them in the first 200 m and the first level is at
5 m. NEMOVAR assimilates temperature and salinity pro- The ocean general circulation model used in this study is
files, and along-track altimeter-derived sea-level anomalies. Modular Ocean Model (MOM5), developed and supported
In addition to the above, observed SST and global mean by researchers at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
sea-level variations are used to modify the heat and fresh- Laboratory (GFDL). It emerged from numerical ocean
water budget respectively. Compared to a control ocean models developed in the 1960s–1980s by Kirk Bryan and
model simulation, ORAS4 improves the fit to observations, Mike Cox at GFDL. The vertical mixing in the model is
the interannual variability and seasonal forecast skill (Bal- achieved through the K-profile parameterization (KPP)
maseda et al., 2013). Recent study by Karmakar et al. (2018) scheme (Large et al. 1994) using local and non-local mix-
and Motoki and McPhaden (2017) highlighted the credibility ing with Bryan-Lewis background diffusivity (Bryan and
of Ocean Reanalysis products with respect to observations. Lewis 1979). The model consists of a global grid with
The time period of SODA and ORAS4 overlaps over the last horizontal resolution ~ 0.25° at the equator and increases
decades of the twentieth century. to 8–11 km at higher latitudes. It consists of 50 vertical
Met Office Hadley Centre (EN4, Good et al. 2013) (http://​ levels with vertical resolution of the upper 20 levels at
www.​metof​fi ce.​gov.​uk/​hadobs) ocean analysis and Ishii 10 m resolution and gradually changes to a maximum
et al., (2003) (https://w​ ww.c​ en.u​ ni-h​ ambur​ g.d​ e/e​ n/i​ cdc/d​ ata/​ thickness of ~ 370 m at 5000 m. The setup is also provided
ocean/​ishii.​html) historical ocean analysis, temperature, and with a realistic topography of 0.5° resolution, which is
salinity profile data are used to assess the upper ocean heat derived from the 5-min global topography ETOPO5 (Earth
content variability. Delayed-time monthly mean sea level Topography-5 min). More descriptive technical aspects of
anomaly (SLA) maps are obtained from the Archiving, MOM are provided in Griffies (2012) .
Validation, and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic The global grid is initialized by Levitus et al. (1998) cli-
Data (AVISO, Ducet et al. 2000) (ftp://​ftp.​aviso.​altim​etry.​ matology of temperature and salinity profiles. The model
fr/​global/​delay​ed-​time/​grids/​clima​tology/​month​ly_​mean). is spun up for 50 years to attain a mean state using the cli-
They have a spatial resolution of (1/4° × 1/4°) and extend matological forcing (downwelling shortwave and longwave
from 1993 to the present. This product is widely used to radiation, 10 m surface winds fields, specific humidity, air
understand the regional as well as global sea level variability temperature, surface pressure, and surface precipitation)
at various time scales (e.g., Unnikrishnan et al. 2015; Han from NCAR climatology (Large and Yeager 2004). Follow-
et al. 2014). The tide gauge data from the Madagascar station ing this, a control experiment (CTRL) is carried out using
NOSY-BE (13.4° S, 48.3° E) available for a shorter period 6 hourly CIAF forcing fields from 1960 to 2009. Previous
(1958–1972) is also used(https://​www.​psmsl.​org/​data/). studies have assessed the contribution of local and remote
The 200 hPa horizontal winds and mean sea level pres- forcing on the tropical SIO through oceanic pathways with
sure (MSLP) datasets from NOAA 20th Century version2 the help of ocean model-based sensitivity experiments (Tre-
(20CRv2) dataset are used. 20CR data contains objectively- nary and Han 2013; Ummenhofer et al. 2013; Mohapatra
analyzed 4-dimensional weather maps and their uncertainty et al. 2020). This was achieved by restricting the interannual
from the late nineteenth to twenty-first century. The dataset atmospheric forcing to the Indian Ocean basin, whereas cli-
is available at 2° × 2° resolution for the period spanning from matological forcing was imposed elsewhere. In this study,
1871 to 2012. The Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experi- sensitivity experiment is performed to investigate the contri-
ments (CORE) framework defines protocols for performing bution of the local wind forcing over the Indian Ocean to the
global ocean–sea-ice coupled simulations forced with com- SMOC variability. Here onwards, this experiment is referred
mon atmospheric datasets, using the same bulk formulae. to as IOSMOC. In IOSMOC, the CORE forcing fields are
This dataset is just for the interannually varying forcing fixed to climatological mean, except the momentum fluxes
(IAF), as developed by Large and Yeager (2009) at National over the Indian Ocean basin from 30° E–120° E, 30° N–35°
Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The version 2 of S are allowed to evolve for the period 1960–2009. Hence,
the CORE-IAF (CIAF) is used in the present study (Griffies the solutions obtained from IOSMOC will exclude the pos-
et al. 2011) (https://d​ ata1.g​ fdl.n​ oaa.g​ ov/n​ omads/f​ orms/c​ ore/​ sible variability impact of remote forcing from Pacific and
COREv2.h​ tml). It contains with 6 hourly shortwave and long Atlantic Oceans through ITF and Agulhas retroflection,
wave radiation, 10 m surface wind fields, specific humidity, respectively.

13
1082 R. U. Pai et al.

2.3 Methodology The annual anomaly of meridional overturning stream

function is computed by subtracting the long-term mean
To quantify the strength of SMOC, meridional overturning meridional overturning stream function. The linear trend
stream function Ψ (y, z, t) is estimated. is removed from annual anomaly of meridional overturning
stream function by detrending the data. The meridional
0 xe
overturning stream function anomaly spanning 50° E to
∫ z∫ (1)
Ψ(y, z, t) = v(x, y, z, t)dxdz
xw 110° E and 8.5° S to 15° S (hereafter SMOC region) is
considered to represent SMOC variability (e.g., Pai et al.
where v (x, y, z, t) is the meridional velocity which is a 2022). That between the latitudes 5° N to the equator
function of zonal, meridional, vertical coordinates, and time, (hereafter the CEC region) is considered to represent
xe and xw are the eastern and western boundaries (Kanzow CEC variability. The difference between SMOC and CEC
et al., 2009). To examine the impact of SMOC variability variability is considered as STC variability. The Southern
on the temperature, meridional heat transport Q(y, t) is cal- Oscillation Index (SOI) is estimated as the difference
culated from v and potential temperature (θ) from surface to of MSLP anomaly between Tahiti (149° W, 17.5° S) to
500m integrated along the zonal section spanning the ocean Darwin (130° E, 12.4° S).
basin.
0 xe

∫z ∫xw
Q(y, t) = 𝜌Cp 𝜃 v dxdz (2) 3 Assessment of reanalysis data
of meridional currents
where ρ is the density of ocean water and Cp is the specific
heat capacity of ocean water at constant pressure (Volkov Figure 1a and b display scatter plot of upper 30 m
et al., 2010). Also, the upper ocean heat content from surface averaged meridional current from ORAS4 and SODA
to depth is estimated as in Eq. (3), with respect to OSCAR over the SMOC region during
1993–2009. This analysis suggests that the meridional
0 surface currents of both ORAS4 as well as SODA dis-
∫z
OHC(x, y, t) = 𝜌Cp 𝜃 dz (3) play high correlation (0.89) with OSCAR. The error in

Fig. 1  Scatter plot of upper

30 m averaged meridional cur-
rent (m ­s−1) from (a) ORAS4
and (b) SODA with respect to
OSCAR over SMOC region
(8.5° S–15° S, 50° E–110° E)
during the period 1993–2009.
c Standard deviation profile
of meridional current (m s.−1)
from ORAS4 and SODA and
ADCP at the location 0°, 90° E
for November 2000 to Decem-
ber 2008

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The interannual variability of shallow meridional overturning circulation and its association… 1083

meridional currents with respect to OSCAR for ORAS4 4 Shallow meridional overturning
and SODA is 0.011 and 0.019 m ­s −1, respectively. In circulation variability
addition to the surface current observation, the subsur-
face meridional currents obtained from ADCP are also 4.1 Shallow meridional overturning circulation
considered for validation. Figure 1c shows the standard
deviation of meridional currents from ORAS4, SODA, Figure 2a displays latitudinal distribution of mean meridi-
and ADCP at the location 0°, 90° E during the period onal transport (Sv) for upper 60 m from SODA. It shows
November 2000 to December 2008. It is important to strong southward transport confined between equator and
note that SODA and ORAS4 display a similar vertical 20° S and peak of southward transport (~ 17 Sv) is observed
structure of meridional current variability with depth between 5° S and 10° S. The strength of southward transport
relative to ADCP observations. The maximum deviation gradually decreases south of 10° S and changes its sign near
in meridional currents is confined between the depth 30° S. Figure 2b shows the mean meridional overturning
of 60 m and 100 m, which is underestimated by both stream function and meridional and vertical currents mani-
SODA and ORAS4. The maximum deviation for ORAS4 fest SMOC from SODA data. Highest magnitude of meridi-
is ~ 0.07 ­m s −1 and for SODA is ~ 0.075 ­m s −1 at 80 m onal overturning stream function (> 15 Sv) is observed
depth. Below 120 m, the deviation of meridional cur- between the depth 50 to 250 m centered over the latitude 8°
rent reduced gradually, ORAS4 underestimated whereas S. South of 15° S the vertical velocity is downward, denot-
SODA estimations are closer to the observed. Above anal- ing the region of mass convergence. Figure 2c shows the
ysis supports meridional currents in ORAS4 and SODA standard deviation of meridional overturning stream func-
are consistent with satellite and in situ observations and tion for upper 60 m, highest deviation (~ 2.2 Sv) is found
captured the variability of meridional currents. SODA at 10° S. The standard deviation of meridional overturning
dataset is available for longer period (during the last cen- stream function with depth (Fig. 2d) shows higher magni-
tury 1871–2010) than ORAS4, motivation to use SODA tude (> 2.5 Sv) below 150 m within the latitude band 10°
dataset in further analysis to understand the variability S to 20° S and 0 and 5° N. Based on above analysis study
in SMOC. regions from SMOC (50° E to 110° E and 8° S to 15° S) and
CEC (50° E to 100° E and 0 to 5° N) are identified (Fig. 2e).

Fig. 2  a Mean meridional

transport in upper 60 m from
SODA. b Depth-latitude section
of mean meridional overturning
stream function (Sv, shaded)
and currents (­ ms−1, vector).
Standard deviation of stream
function at upper 60 m (c) and
its depth-latitude section from
SODA (d). e Schematic of study
regions considered based on
standard deviation in (c). The
box averaged upper 60 m mean
meridional transport (Sv) and
heat (PW) transports and their
standard deviation are also
given

13
1084 R. U. Pai et al.

The mean of meridional volume and heat transport in the and CEC. Figure 3a shows the time series of meridional
SMOC region is − 13.8 Sv and − 1.5 PW, respectively, and overturning stream function anomaly, whenever the years
corresponding standard deviation is 1.9 Sv and 0.22 PW, with negative anomaly lesser than one standard deviation
respectively. However, over the CEC region, long-term mean are considered strong SMOC years and positive anoma-
of meridional volume and heat transport is -2 Sv and -0.25 lies higher by one standard deviation are considered weak
PW and corresponding standard deviation is 1.3 Sv and 0.15 SMOC years, since meridional transport is southward. It
PW. Hence mean meridional volume/heat transport in CEC is to be noted that the SMOC displays strong interannual
is smaller than SMOC region but variability is of almost variability after 1940s. Based on the above analysis during
same magnitude. the study period, 15 strong and 12 weak events are identi-
fied (Table 1). Meridional stream function over the SMOC
4.2 Interannual variability in SMOC during last region and vertical velocity anomaly over the subduction
century zone displays significant positive correlation (0.56), indi-
cating phase relation between them. The variability in STC
Figure 3 shows the detrended meridional overturning stream is found to be in phase (correlation is 0.48) with SMOC
function anomaly over the SMOC region during the period variability and CEC is found to be out of phase (Correla-
1871–2010 for upper 60 m (depth up to which annual mean tion is approx. − 0.5), which is consistent with Meng et al.
meridional currents are southward) over SMOC, CEC, and (2020), who reported using ORAS5 dataset during the
STC regions. Note that the variability in STC is estimated period 1958–2016. The CEC (Fig. 3b) and STC (Fig. 3c)
as the difference in stream function anomaly over SMOC variability is also examined with vertical velocity anomaly

Fig. 3  Time series of detrended

meridional overturning stream
function anomaly (black line) at
upper 60 m for (a) SMOC, (b)
CEC, and (c) STC and vertical
velocity anomaly (blue line)
over a subduction zone (50°
E–100° E, 20° S–30° S), (b)
Somali-Oman coast and (43°
E–48° E, 2° N–10° N). c Sey-
chelles Thermocline Ridge (50°
E–65° E, 3° S–12° S) region
from SODAv2.2.4. The dashed
line in (a) denotes the standard
deviation 1.9 Sv

Table 1  The strong and weak SMOC years identified based on the standard deviation of meridional overturning stream function over the SMOC
region from SODA during the period 1871–2010

Strong SMOC years 1871, 1880, 1881, 1882, 1883, 1884, 1885, 1887, 1888, 1937, 1964, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009
Weak SMOC years 1903, 1912, 1913, 1914, 1923, 1941, 1943, 1949, 1950, 1959, 1962, 1991

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The interannual variability of shallow meridional overturning circulation and its association… 1085

over Somali-Oman coast and (Fig. 3b; 43° E–48° E, 2° higher magnitude confined between 2° S and 18° S. Vertical
N–10° N) Seychelles Thermocline Ridge (Fig. 3c; 50° E–65° velocity over the subduction region during strong and weak
E, 3° S–12° S) region. Vertical velocity anomaly over the SMOC years shows anomalous subduction and upwelling,
Somali-Oman coast and Seychelles Thermocline Ridge dis- respectively. The difference from strong composite to that
plays negative correlation with the meridional stream func- of weak suggests that the maximum changes occur between
tion over the CEC and STC, respectively. the latitudes 5° S and 15° S, with peak near 10° S. Also,
In order to study the spatial structure of SMOC during large variation in vertical velocity is observed between 10°
strong and weak SMOC years composite analysis is carried S and 20° S. Figure 4d and e shows spatial distribution of
out. Figure 4a and b show the depth-latitude plot of meridi- the vertical velocity anomaly composite for strong and weak
onal overturning stream function anomaly and meridional SMOC years, respectively. Negative and positive anomaly
and vertical currents anomaly for strong and weak years of the vertical velocity manifest anomalous subduction and
composite respectively. Figure 4c indicates the difference upwelling, respectively. The anomalous upwelling/subduc-
between stream function, meridional and vertical currents tion is observed dominating over the region south of 10° S.
for strong composites to weak composite years. During the Strong SMOC years (Fig. 4d) are associated with anomalous
strong SMOC years (Fig. 4a), anomalous southward trans- subduction whereas weak SMOC years (Fig. 4e), indicat-
port is reported in the upper ocean over 0° to 20° S. The ing anomalous upwelling south of 10° S. The difference in
stronger transport of about − 2.4 Sv is confined between the vertical velocity composite for strong and weak year
the latitude band 2° S to 17° S below 50 m, where stand- (Fig. 4f) suggests that large variability occurs between the
ard deviation is maximum (Fig. 2b). For the weak years latitudes 10° S and 20° S over South West Indian Ocean
(Fig. 4b), the transport is anomalously northward with (SWIO).

Fig. 4  Depth-latitude section for meridional overturning stream func- (c) their difference. Please note that the vertical velocity is multiplied
tion anomaly (shaded, Sv) and anomaly of meridional and vertical by a factor of ­104. Anomalous vertical velocity (ms.−1) at 75 m during
currents ­(ms−1, vectors) for (a) strong and (b) weak SMOC years and (d) strong and (e) weak SMOC years and their difference (f)

13
1086 R. U. Pai et al.

5 Heat transport variability associated magnitude of about − 0.25 PW. During weak SMOC years
with SMOC (Fig. 5b), structure of heat transport is opposite (northward)
to that of strong SMOC years. Figure 5c and d shows com-
Figure 5a and b shows the composite of meridional heat posite of vertical profile of temperature anomaly over SWIO
transport anomaly for strong and weak SMOC years. Dur- for strong and weak SMOC years from SODA and EN4 anal-
ing strong SMOC years meridional heat transport anomaly ysis during the period 1900–2010. Temperature anomaly
is southward, denoting excess transport of heat to the south profile associated with strong SMOC years display negative
of the equator (Fig. 5a). The maximum transport is seen anomaly at upper 250 m (Fig. 5c), with maximum value
between the latitude 2° S and 17° S below 50 m with a of − 0.7 °C (− 0.35 °C) around the depth of 50 m in SODA
(EN4). For the weak years, the maximum positive anomaly
of ~ 0.4 °C (~ 0.3 °C) is found at around the 50 m (100 m)
in SODA (EN4) (Fig. 5d). These analysis reveals that the
strong SMOC years caused cooling and weak SMOC years
produced warming in upper 200 m over the SWIO, which
is also supported by the EN4 analysis data. Figure 5e and
f show the corresponding changes in the vertical profile of
density, during the strong SMOC years increase in the upper
ocean density and during the weak SMOC years reduction
in the density in the upper ocean is found. This variation in
the density is consistent with the upper ocean heat changes;
thus, circulation not only modifies the heat distribution but
also the vertical stability of the upper ocean, strong SMOC
enhances the stability of the upper ocean and weak SMOC
suppresses the upper ocean stability in SWIO.

6 SMOC variability and their association

with south west Indian Ocean thermal
structure

Figure 6 shows the composite of 200 m Ocean Heat Content

Anomaly (OHCA200) during strong and weak SMOC years
from SODA (Fig. 6a, b) during the period 1871–2010. To
examine the consistency in the results obtained, the compos-
ites of OHCA200 during strong and weak years from two
ocean analysis datasets, EN4 (Fig. 6c, d) and Ishii (Fig. 6e, f)
are estimated during the period 1959–2010 and 1945–2010,
respectively. It also shows correlation and regression analy-
sis between OHCA200 and SMOC variability during respec-
tive periods. OHCA200 during strong SMOC years (Fig. 6a)
displays negative anomalies over the SWIO, off Somali
coast, whereas positive anomalies in south of 20° S, south
eastern Indian Ocean, and strong positive anomaly in Bay of
Bengal (BoB), which is other way in the EN4 and Ishii anal-
ysis (Fig. 6c and e). Weak SMOC years composite shows
positive anomalies in SWIO and off Somali coast while rest
of the region displayed negative OHCA200 (Fig. 6b). It is
important to note that relative magnitude of OHCA200 are
Fig. 5  Depth latitude section of meridional heat transport anomaly lesser in Ishii than SODA and EN4 (Fig. 6d and f). The
(PW) for (a) strong and (b) weak SMOC years from SODAv2.2.4. contour in the Fig. 6a, c, and e represents the correlation
Vertical profile of temperature anomaly (°C) (c, d) and density anom- between OHCA200 and SMOC variability index during the
aly (kg m.−3) (e, f) over south-western box (45° E–65° E, 5° S–15° S)
for strong and weak SMOC years obtained from SODA (solid line) respective periods. The dot denotes the correlation above
and EN4 (dashed line) during the period 1900–2010 90% confidence level. In addition, inter-correlation for

13
The interannual variability of shallow meridional overturning circulation and its association… 1087

Fig. 6  Composite of 200 m

ocean heat content anomaly
­(1010 J ­m−2) during strong and
weak SMOC years from SODA
(a, b), EN4 (c, d), and Ishii (e,
f) during the period 1871–2010,
1959–2010, 1945–2010, respec-
tively. The contour in the first
column represents the correla-
tion between OHC 200 anomaly
and SMOC anomaly during
respective periods. The dot
denotes the correlation above
90% significance level. The
contours in the second column
denote the regression of SMOC
anomaly on OHC200 anomaly.
The black box in (a) indicates
the South-West Indian Ocean
(SWIO) (45° E–65° E, 5° S–15°
S) considered in the study

OHCA200 variability among data product SODA, EN4, and which supports in phase variation. Figure 7b shows the
Ishii for south-west Indian Ocean is found greater than 0.7. time series of upper ocean current divergence and thermo-
This analysis reveals that the SMOC variability influences cline depth anomaly, and Fig. 7c shows time series of upper
the SWIO heat content, supported by the EN4 and Ishii data ocean current divergence and OHCA200 for the SWIO;
and displayed significant positive correlation with 90% con- correlation between them is negative. This indicates that
fidence level in all the three datasets; however, OHCA200 variation in thermocline depth and OHCA200 are out of
signal for other regions failed to have consensus with all the phase with the divergence of the upper ocean circulation.
three data products. Figure 7d shows the evolution of OHCA200 with the SLA
Figure 7a shows the time series of meridional overturn- over the SWIO. Analysis reveals that OHCA200 and SLA
ing stream function anomaly and OHCA200 for the SWIO. displayed coherent variability in the SWIO with correlation
The correlation between them for the study period is 0.32, 0.83 for SODA. The tide gauge data for the shorter period

13
1088 R. U. Pai et al.

Fig. 7  Time series of (a)

SMOC index (thin black) and
OHCA200 (blue), (b) diver-
gence of horizontal current
anomaly (dashed) and thermo-
cline depth anomaly (pink), (c)
divergence of horizontal current
anomaly and OHCA200, d sea
level anomaly (thick black) and
OHCA200 from SODA during
the period 1871–2010. The
black dashed line connected in
by triangle in (d) denotes the
sea level anomalies obtained
from AVISO data for the period
1993–2010. The red line con-
nected with dots in (d) denotes
the annual mean tide gauge
measurements obtained from
the Madagascar station NOSY-
BE (13.4° S, 48.3° E) during the
period 1958–1972. The correla-
tion coefficient is also given in
each panel

(1958–1972) from the Madagascar station NOSY-BE (13.4° (1871–2010). Time series of zonal wind stress anomaly and
S, 48.3° E) also displayed a coherent sea level variation and MHT show coherent variation between them with correla-
OHCA200 with 0.72 correlation coefficient supporting the tion coefficient 0.82. This suggests that during the study
results obtained from SODA. In addition, correlation analy- period, stronger SMOC are associated with the anomalous
sis for sea level data during the recent period from satellite easterlies and weaker SMOC are associated with anomalous
with the OHCA200 for SWIO also confirmed in phase rela- westerlies over the SMOC region. However, MHT and zonal
tion with correlation coefficient 0.6. Above analysis con- wind stress displayed negative correlation coefficient (− 0.33
firms that during the weak SMOC years, heat transport gets and − 0.31) with the SOI (Fig. 8b and c), indicating that the
converged in the SWIO, which leads deepening of thermo- negative SOI (i.e., El Niño condition) favoring below normal
cline and increase of OHCA200 and sea level rise and vice easterly wind stress in the SIO and corresponding southward
versa during the strong SMOC years. heat transport is less than its normal and vice versa when
SOI is positive. This analysis manifests that the MHT vari-
ability is driven by the zonal wind anomaly which is to some
7 Mechanism responsible for interannual extent forced by the ENSO variability. Hence, the strong
variability of SMOC years are associated with La Niña and weak SMOC years
are associated with El Niño. Hence, the heat transport and
Figure 8 shows the time series of upper 60 m meridional heat OHCA200 in the SWIO is driven by atmospheric pathway
transport (MHT) anomaly and zonal wind stress anomaly connected with the eastern Pacific temperature anomaly. Fig-
over the SMOC region (Fig. 8a), time series of SOI and zonal ure 9a and b shows the composite of zonal wind stress vari-
wind stress anomaly over the SMOC region (Fig. 8b), and ability during strong and weak SMOC years; it further con-
time series of MHT and SOI (Fig. 8c) during study period firms that strong SMOC years are associated with stronger

13
The interannual variability of shallow meridional overturning circulation and its association… 1089

Fig. 8  a Time series of upper 60 m meridional heat transport (MHT) stress anomaly, and (c) time series of MHT and SOI index during the
anomaly (black, in PW) and zonal wind stress anomaly (blue, period 1871–2010
­10−2 N m.−2), (b) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and zonal wind

Fig. 9  Composite of zonal wind

stress anomaly (shaded, 1­ 0−2
Nm.−2) and wind stress anomaly
(vectors) for (a) strong and (b)
weak SMOC years during the
period 1871–2010

easterly wind anomaly with magnitude of 1 to 1.5 m/s over velocity potential indicates that the center of maximum
the SIO (5° S to 25° S) and weak SMOC years are associ- divergence is situated at central Indian Ocean. Also, the
ated with westerly wind anomaly with same magnitude. It center of maximum convergent component is extended from
is clear from the Fig. 8c that the changes in local surface central to eastern equatorial Pacific denoting La Niña-type
wind circulation driving the variability in MHT (Fig. 9a and conditions. Similar pattern in upper level divergence and
b) have association with ENSO. It would be also important velocity potential has been reported in previous studies dur-
to explore how ENSO conditions over central and eastern ing La Niña (e.g., Raj Deepak et al. 2019). It is noted that the
equatorial Pacific alter the local surface wind circulation. pattern of velocity potential and upper level wind divergence
Figure 10a and b indicate the composite of velocity potential is in opposite phase during weak SMOC years with respect
(shaded, ­106 ­m2s−1) and divergent wind anomalies (vector, to strong years (Fig. 10b), indicating El Niño type conditions
­ms−1) at 200 hPa during the strong and weak SMOC years. in eastern Pacific. During the weak SMOC years, the center
During strong SMOC years, strong anomalous upper level of anomalous convergence is situated at eastern equatorial
convergence over central equatorial Pacific and divergence Indian Ocean. Hence, the analysis suggests that the La Niña-
over central Indian Ocean is observed. The anomalous type conditions persists over the equatorial Pacific enhances

13
1090 R. U. Pai et al.

Fig. 10  The composite of veloc-

ity potential anomaly (shaded,
­106 ­m2s−1) and divergent wind
anomaly (vector, ms.−1) at
200 hPa for strong (a) and weak
(b) SMOC years during the
period 1871–2010

Table 2  Strong and weak SMOC years identified based on standard Negative and positive anomalies of transport, with magni-
deviation (0.87 Sv) stream function over SMOC region from CTRL tude more than 2 Sv below 150 m depth, is reproduced by
run during the period 1960–2009
the model during strong as well as weak years, respectively
Strong years 1969, 1972, 1975, 1976, 1982, 1984, 1988, 1999, 2000 in CTRL. In comparison with the spatial pattern of anoma-
Weak years 1963, 1968, 1973, 1987, 2003, 2007 lous SMOC obtained from SODA (Fig. 4a and b), CTRL
simulation underestimates meridional transport anomalies;
however, it captured pattern of transport anomalies corre-
the upper level wind divergence over the Indian Ocean. Sim- sponding to strong and weak SMOC year composite. It is
ilarly, the El Niño conditions over equatorial Pacific weakens also important to note that CTRL could simulate anoma-
the upper level wind divergence over the Indian Ocean. This lous downwelling during strong and upwelling during weak
drives the variation in surface winds as observed in Fig. 9. SMOC years, around 10° S. Above analysis supports that
In order to confirm the role of wind variability to the though CTRL underestimates the magnitude of the meridi-
SWIO heat content, sea level, and thermocline variabil- onal anomaly strength but reproduces a pattern of meridi-
ity, ocean model based experiments are carried out for the onal overturning stream function anomaly consistent with
period 1962–2009. In the CTRL experiment, ocean model SODA. Figure 11c and d show composite of meridional
is forced by interannually varying forcing over the global overturning stream function anomaly and anomalous SMOC
ocean. Whereas in IOSMOC experiments only interannu- for strong and weak years from IOSMOC. The strong and
ally wind forcing allowed over Indian Ocean and rest of the weak SMOC pattern and vertical motions are well captured,
forcing fields are long term mean over the global ocean. It though magnitudes are underestimated. This analysis reveals
is important to note that the strong and weak years for the that the change in SMOC largely depends on the interan-
model study period are identified based on standard devia- nual variation of the local wind over SIO. Figure 12 shows
tion of annual mean meridional overturning stream function the composite of OHCA200 and SLA for strong (Fig. 12a,
in the CTRL (Table 2). The composite of meridional over- c) and weak (Fig. 12b, d) years from CTRL and IOSMOC
turning stream function anomaly and anomalous SMOC for experiments, respectively. CTRL displays negative anom-
strong and weak years from CTRL is shown in Fig. 11a, b. aly of OHCA200 in the SWIO for strong year composite

13
The interannual variability of shallow meridional overturning circulation and its association… 1091

Fig. 11  Composite of meridi-

onal overturning stream
function anomaly (Sv, shaded)
and SMOC anomaly (m s­ −1,
vectors) during strong (a, c) and
weak years (b, d) from CTRL
and IOSMOC experiments
during the period 1960–2009.
It is important to note that the
vertical current is multiplied by
a factor of ­104

Fig. 12  Composite of upper

200 m ocean heat content
anomaly (shaded, 1­ 09 J ­m−2)
and sea level anomaly (contour,
cm) during strong (a, c) and
weak (b, d) years from CTRL
and IOSMOC experiments,
respectively

13
1092 R. U. Pai et al.

and positive anomaly of OHCA200 for weak SMOC years station NOSY-BE (13.4° S, 48.3° E) with OHCA200 as
(Fig. 12a, b). North BoB and south east Indian Ocean show well as SLA data from satellite observation shows signifi-
weak OHCA200 and opposite to SWIO, however Arabian cant correlation, which confirms that SMOC variability
Sea does not show any change during these years. Corre- modulates SWIO upper ocean heat content and sea level.
sponding changes in the SLA are also reported in the SWIO, SMOC, zonal wind south of equator in Indian Ocean, and
for negative OHCA200, SLA of the order of − 3 cm and for SOI in Pacific show coherent evolution, indicating the
positive OHCA200, SLA of the order of 4 cm is found. Simi- influence of eastern Pacific temperature (ENSO) variabil-
lar analysis is carried out for IOSMOC, which reproduced ity on SMOC variability. The upper level divergence and
the OHCA200 and SLA spatial pattern like in CTRL for the velocity potential over Indian Ocean are consistent with
strong and weak SMOC years composites. Analysis supports the surface circulation, indicating Pacific variability influ-
that the OHCA200 and SLA reported for the strong and ence through atmospheric bridge on SMOC variability.
weak SMOC years are driven by the wind forcing and role To confirm the role of atmospheric path way contributing
of Pacific variability through oceanic pathway is negligible. to the SMOC variability, ocean model-based CTRL and
sensitivity experiment (IOSMOC) is carried out, in which
only Indian Ocean is forced with interannually varying
8 Summary and conclusion wind fields and the climatological winds are retained over
rest of the domain for forcing. The results from the IOS-
The variability of Indian Ocean SMOC during the last cen- MOC experiment reveals that the strong and weak events
tury (1871–2010) is studied using SODA reanalysis data. identified in SMOC are not associated with remote forc-
The validation of upper ocean meridional currents from ing from Pacific through oceanic pathways, but are mainly
SODA with respect to that of OSCAR as well as ORAS4 due to local wind response to ENSO. This suggests that
confirmed that SODA data is consistent with observation the atmospheric teleconnection associated with ENSO,
and captures the observed variability over the study region. leads to SMOC interannual variability resulted south west
The magnitude of the annual mean meridional overturning Indian Ocean heat content, sea level and thermocline depth
stream function over the study region (8.5° S–15° S, 50° interannual modulation.
E–110° E) is considered as SMOC strength. Strong SMOC
Acknowledgements We thank the Director, Indian Institute of Tropical
years are identified based on the meridional overturning Meteorology (IITM) and Ministry of Earth Sciences for financial sup-
stream function positive anomaly estimated over SMOC port and infrastructure. Ferret is used for preparing manuscript figures.
region greater than its standard deviation. Similarly, a We would like to express sincere gratitude to the anonymous reviewer
weak SMOC year is considered based on the stream func- for their comments.
tion negative anomaly less than its standard deviation. The Author contribution AP and RUP designed and conceptualized the
composite analysis of stream function anomaly for strong study. The generation of plots and code development is done by RUP.
years reveals a maximum southward transport (~ 2.5 Sv) Model experiments and analysis are carried out by RUP under supervi-
between the latitude band 5° S and 15° S within the first sion of AP. RUP, AP, JSC, and CG have contributed to the discussions
as well as in manuscript writing.
500 m and minimum transport during weak SMOC years.
Also, for strong and weak SMOC years, the heat transport Data availability The details of publicly available datasets are men-
(~ 0.25 PW) associated with SMOC is also displaying the tioned in Sect. 2. The model outputs used in this study are not publicly
peak between the same latitude. The impact of meridional available and can be accessed from the corresponding author upon
reasonable request.
heat transport variability associated with SMOC to tem-
perature, upper ocean stability, upper 200 m ocean heat Code availability All of the figures in the study are prepared using free
content, thermocline depth and sea level is also examined. visualization tool PyFerret.
This analysis reveals that strong SMOC leads to negative
upper ocean temperature, heat content, sea level and ther- Declarations
mocline depth anomaly whereas weak SMOC leads to Ethics approval The manuscript has not been submitted/published
opposite anomaly in the SWIO. Correlation analysis of elsewhere previously.
meridional overturning stream function anomaly with the
oceanic heat content anomaly during the study confirms Consent to participate Not applicable.
negative correlation over the SWIO with the confidence Consent for publication Not applicable.
level of 90%. This pattern of correlation and heat content
anomaly for the SWIO is also supported by the EN4 and Conflict of interest The authors declare no competing interests.
Ishii independent ocean analysis data. In addition, analy-
sis with the tide gauge sea level data from Madagascar

13
The interannual variability of shallow meridional overturning circulation and its association… 1093

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