Thoughts on Coming Apart and the Coming

Great Reset

Turning and turning in the widening gyre

The falcon cannot hear the falconer

Kit Webster

Can You Say, Smoot-Hawley?

November 22, 2024

Themes and Theses - Why I'm Contemplating Out

Loud
(Initially formulated in the early 90s, following decades of reading history,
philosophy, psychology and a lot of contemplation, particularly on the subject
of cycles. In the end, this is a relatively straightforward story about human
nature and of history rhyming.)
The US will enter a period of crisis in the early 2000s. In the late 90s, I took up
Strauss' and Howe's terminology of the Fourth Turning (without incorporating
their generations paradigm) and agreed with Howe that the end stage of the
crisis began with the Great Financial Crisis and would last into the early
2030s. We are not yet to the middle of the end stage of the crisis.
The crisis will be serious and could be existential.
Internal strife will increase, up to and including secession and civil war.
International conflicts will increase as the vacuum created by the weakening
of the US is filled by other players.
There will be many threads to the crisis, but the primary thread will be debt,
deficits and entitlements. Other factors include, eg, demographics, a loss of
meaning and myth and a loss of self-discipline.
Politics will move leftward as citizens look for some refuge from the chaos.
The US will become increasingly susceptible to a (man) on a white horse, who
can come from either the left or the right.
Inflation, as the most likely way to address debt since austerity is not politically
acceptable, will significantly lower standards of living, exacerbating the civil
crises.
Once the old rot is cleared out, and assuming continuity, there will be the
basis for the establishment of a new order. (Added around 2020) The loss of
faith by our youth in our founding principles means that the new order will at
least partially be based on new principles. As yet, I have no visibility as to
what those principles might be.
(Added in the early 00s) While humans are contributing to global warming,
policies implemented to address manmade global warming will create a
significant energy crisis, probably toward the end of the Fourth Turning.
(Added in 2023) The lowering / elimination of standards in education, the
judiciary, law enforcement, the military and other segments of our society will
create a population unable to adequately comprehend, do or respond to the
challenges of democracy and culture.
 Quotes to Contemplate

Abraham Lincoln once asked an audience how many legs a dog has if you
count the tail as a leg. When they answered "five," Lincoln told them that the
answer was four. The fact that you called the tail a leg did not make it a leg. -
Thomas Sowell

> Primary Ideas in This Week's Post

The

> Can You Say, Smoot-Hawley?

Many things contributed to the Great Depression: the Roaring 20s, FDR's
policies, the ineptness of the Federal Reserve. Something all the history
books discuss, but is not discussed much today, is the role of the Smoot-
Hawley Tariff.
Given Trump's view on tariffs, the subject is worthy of review.
Trump's views on tariffs are ... well, the word, idiotic, comes to mind. But that
is not what I want to discuss.
Tariffs will, in all likelihood, raise prices and lead to trade wars. It is the second
bit I want to focus on.
Remember that Biden retained Trump's original tariffs, and even extended
them a bit. Pendulums swing; globalization is behind us; tariffs are the order of
the day.
Globalization was a big thing in the Roaring 20s. By 1930, when the Smoot-
Hawley Tariff had passed, the stock market had crashed and the Great
Depression was under way.
What to do?
Protect ourselves, of course. Erect barriers to trade to protect US farmers and
industries. Stimulate the domestic economy.
1,000 economists signed a petition to President Hoover asking him to veto the
bill. He signed it.
Are tariffs all bad?
No.
Are there times to have tariffs?
Yes.
But the second order effects can be brutal, as they were in the 30s.
Everybody starts raising tariffs, both out of spite and to protect their own.
Global trade collapses and everyone is worse off, including domestic farmers
and manufacturers whose foreign markets are now closed off by tariffs. US
imports and exports with Europe fell by two-thirds between 1929 and 1932.
The Great Depression was actually a financial downturn that was exacerbated
by FDR, the Fed and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff.
In our current case, tariffs WILL increase prices and WILL NOT replace the
income tax.
The only good news from the tariffs is that investment in domestic
manufacturing may increase.
Be careful what you ask for.
(And, there's always this - Troy Nehls, a congressman from Texas, said: “If
Donald Trump says tariffs work, tariffs work. Period. Because Donald Trump
is really never wrong.” I know I feel better.)

Markets
Updated Charts

> No chan

> All else equal, aggressive tariffs will drive deflation in the biggest surplus
nation/factory of the world (China), and inflation at biggest trade debtor nation
and consumer of the world (the US.) - Luke Gromen

> A very worthwhile conversation about the state of things by two men for
whom I have great respect: Ben Hunt and Grant Williams on the Excess
Returns podcast.

Short Takes

> Election things

John Mauldin - Simply having slim Republican majorities in the House and
Senate is not close to being sufficient. The spending impulse is bipartisan and
pervasive. Just this week the House passed a bill giving government workers
an increased $196 billion Social Security benefit, by a vote of 327-75. Rep.
Lauren Boebert screamed about raising the debt ceiling limit. She and two
dozen of her fellow Republicans who voted against increasing the debt limit
voted for this bill.
(There is a thing where some liberal women will not have sex with men during
Trump's term.) The Bee - Conservative Husbands Sacrificially Volunteer To
Have Twice The Sex To Make Up For Lib Sex Strike
Something I missed in my discussion of revolution last week was blue state
bankruptcies. Biden was bailing them out and that will likely stop. Illinois is the
poster child.
Some genuine vote-counting shenanigans in Pennsylvania in a Senate race.
Will probably get straightened out, but in this case it appears to be Democrats
that are intentionally counting disqualified ballots.
The definition of insanity ... Harris is by far the leading candidate for
Democratic presidential nominee in 2028 by a large margin, followed by
Newsom, Shapiro, Buttigieg, Walz and AOC.
New York prosecutors will probably delay sentencing Trump in the hush
money case until after his term is completed.
Kamala gained seven million fewer votes than Biden did in 2020.
California, in a display of inept vote counting, finally declared that an increase
in minimum wage failed.
An election judge in Minnesota is facing criminal charges after he allowed
multiple unregistered residents to cast votes

> So, you say you want a revolution?

Democrats are planning to flex their power in deep-blue states to frustrate the
Trump administration’s policies, including by refusing to enforce immigration
laws.
Trump will follow in the master's (Biden's) footsteps by making questionable or
clearly illegal changes and letting the slow-acting courts sort them out.
George Friedman - A transitional president like Reagan, Roosevelt or Jackson
tends to usher in shifts that are often despised by the establishment until they
are successful. One does not need to have supported Trump’s election to see
how it will play out.
This should be interesting, the involving the military bit - President elect
Donald Trump has announced that his administration is preparing to declare a
national emergency and plans to use the military to implement a mass
deportation program.
I think this is right - from The Free Press - Vinay Prasad writes that “after
looking at the whole range of RFK Jr.’s positions, I’ve come to the view that
while some are extreme, others are genuinely worthy of debate—and still
others are correct.”
Some discussion about changing the symbol of the Republican party from the
elephant to the lion to symbolize a break from the past.
Trump's appointments continue to amaze. Mehmet Oz for Medicare and
Medicaid and WWE co-founder Linda McMahon for Education. The
Washington Post ranked his most "contentious" appointments as Gaetz
(Attorney General, now withdrawn), Gabbard (national intelligence), Hegseth
(defense), RFK Jr (health and human services). I'm beginning to think he is
toying with us.
In a harbinger of things to come, the Los Angeles City Council voted to
prohibit city resources from being used for federal immigration enforcement.
Nixon goes to China. In what was an impressively rare and constructive move,
Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski of MSNBC went to meet with Trump at
Mar-a-Lago.
Sarah Isgur - "Yall realize the Democrats will win another presidential election
someday, and then under your new theory, they get to appoint whatever
lunatics they find without the support of even their own party?" (Kit - yes they
do and they don't care, much like the Dems didn't care about the filibuster.
This is all about the dueling race to the bottom.)
Everybody is repositioning for Trump, with some extraordinary outcomes. I
have put Ian Bremmer's take at the bottom of this post. See Ian at GZERO
Media.
Trump is planning to revive the Keystone XL pipeline.
Ellen DeGeneres and wife Portia de Rossi have moved to rural England, put
their Montecito estate on the market and plan to never return to the United
States, telling friends the election of Donald Trump was their primary
motivation.
RFK Jr - Vaccines cause autism. COVID may have been a “plandemic”—one
designed to spare Jews and Chinese people. The government is using 5G
networks to “control our behavior.” WiFi is making us unhealthy. The FDA is
waging a “war on public health.” HIV doesn’t cause AIDS. Chemtrails are real.
He can seem very reasonable and grounded sometimes, only, even leaving
his personal history aside, he is a nutcase.
The Washington establishment is gearing up to take recess appointments
away from Trump.

> It was always as inevitable as it was scary - Biden (I guess - have we

figured out who is in charge?) has authorized long-range missile strikes into
Russia. They are not long-range enough to reach Moscow.

In the 1950s, when I was a child, my hometown of Decatur (suburb of

Atlanta), Georgia, was very proudly one of the first to put fluoride in its water
by being part of the DeKalb County water system. I had a lot of cavities,
mostly before fluoride, so god knows what would have happened later on
without fluoride.
Over the years, fluoride has been controversial, mostly on the conspiratorial
right, so I haven't paid attention.
RFK Jr was against fluoride, but he is a nutcase, so I didn't pay attention.
Then he became Trump's candidate for Secretary of Health and Human
Services, so I decided to gather some data.
So, the data overwhelmingly say that fluoride decreases tooth decay - by like
68%.
It turns out that there are potential downsides.
I am paraphrasing an article in The Economist, but, with fluoride in toothpaste,
it might be redundant in the water. If you consume too much, it can be toxic,
only that is vanishingly rare in the US.
RFK Jr is worried that it reduces IQ. There are studies that very high levels
were associated with a lower IQ in children. One study has indicated the effect
in children when consumed within the recommended range. So, there may be
something there. Too soon to tell.
RFK Jr wants to shoot first and ask questions later.
Maybe, just maybe, whites are really as smart as Asians, we have just been
drinking fluoridated water.

Astrology enters the Fourth Turning - after all, Uranus' orbit is a nicely Fourth
Turn-y 84 years.
From Fiorente, who has been impressively good at predicting markets. This
dovetails with the astrology community, generally, which is predicting turmoil
and chaos.
We are living in exciting times. On November 19th, Pluto will enter Aquarius,
beginning a new era. This transition may be challenging, likely leading to
disruptions similar to the societal upheavals of the French and American
Revolutions (1777-1798), which reshaped power dynamics and governance.
Pluto is associated with transformation and societal reform, and as it moves
into Aquarius, a new collective consciousness is expected to emerge. This
shift will amplify the urgency of addressing social issues such as inequality
and injustice. Aquarius, ruled by Uranus—the planet of sudden change and
rebellion—is often linked with themes of technology, innovation, social
progress, and humanitarian ideals. This alignment may bring a significant,
revolutionary change in society, particularly in technology, social justice, and
power dynamics.
We can already feel and observe these shifts occurring in the USA and other
parts of the world. For example, just yesterday, the Dutch cabinet narrowly
avoided a crisis after facing backlash for alleged racist comments linked to
football violence in Amsterdam. It is obvious that the new Dutch cabinet is
facing difficulties entering the new era with Pluto finally settling in Aquarius.
With Uranus shifting in and out of Taurus in 2025 before finally settling in
Gemini, this shift may also significantly impact the stock market in 2025.

> See an important update on Xi-thought at the bottom of the post. Since he
has been very straightforward about signaling his intentions, you should pay
attention. One conclusion you should reach is that he is beginning to assert at
least parity with the US. Since we are dependent on China for so many critical
parts, materials and medicines, I think we are their vassal. We just put up a
good front.

> This graph explains a lot - the rise of Trump and background for the Fourth
Turning
World-class self-own

Life comes at you fast - Antifa and far-left extremists have surrounded a
Seattle Public Library to try to shut down a meeting of women from
@WDI_USA for believing that women’s private and personal spaces be
protected from males.
> Seems reasonable

Offered without comment, but looking forward to the drama - House

Republican introduces measure to ban transgender women from female
bathrooms in Capitol. On Wednesday, House Speaker Mike Johnson
announced that “all single-sex facilities in the Capitol and House Office
Buildings. . . are reserved for individuals of that biological sex.”

> The severing of an undersea communications cable between Germany and

Finland is likely to have been an act of sabotage - a Chinese ship is
suspected of being responsible.

My mother would have never gotten out of jail - Georgia woman arrested for
letting her 10-year-old son walk to a store less than a mile from home
> A joke and evidence of incompetence and corruption. In an audit the
Defense Department cannot account for $2.4 trillion. It's this kind of thing that
makes one want to consider Trump.

All the cool kids are doing it. I joined Bluesky. So far, unimpressed, but ready
to give it a chance. First impression - whereas X is full of information ... and
cranks ... Bluesky is mostly fluff, so far.

So, the Superman-as-gay thing didn't work out so well, Here is the latest
Superman backstory from DC comics:
In past comics and adaptations, Superman's iconic symbol on his chest
represented the House of El or Kryptonian for hope. In this version, the 'S'
represents the members of Krypton's lower class, who suffered under the
upper class which led to the destruction of the planet. ...
Instead [of being raised by the Kents in Kansas], Kal-El will spend years on
the run across far corners of the globe, living among the planet's most
impoverished and persecuted peoples, working in mines and corporate-owned
farms, fighting to protect the identity he lost when his home-world exploded,
always yearning to belong, somewhere, anywhere.
Batman and Wonder Woman are also getting new backstories.

It Ain't Easy Being Green

> Doomberg is of the opinion that ultimately data centers will be prohibited
from taking power from the grid. The grid is too fragile and upgrading it will be
too expensive. Data centers will be responsible for their own power.

> California’s San Joaquin Valley may be sinking nearly an inch per year due
to the over-pumping of groundwater supplies, with resource extraction
outpacing natural recharge, a new study has found. This agriculture-rich
region, located within the state’s Central Valley, has been sinking at record-
breaking rates over the past two decades, according to the study, published
on Tuesday in Nature’s Communications …

> I told you so.

When the 2 degrees C "limit" on global warming was established many
decades ago, I said we were not going to stay under it. So, when the 1.5
degrees C limit was established, I dismissed it out of hand as posturing on the
part of the activist community. Well, a consensus is growing that the 1.5
degree limit is dead. My predictions were based only on human nature.
Carbon and methane emissions are the bases of our prosperity. We would
have to give up substantial amounts of prosperity and convenience to achieve
the climate goals. The danger is in the future. Therefore, humans are not
going to do it. In fact, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
continues to rise. I repeat my slogan that encapsulates the problem. The
entire US could shut down tomorrow - manufacturing, automobiles, cow farts -
totally cease all greenhouse emissions, and the atmosphere would continue
warming.

Take Xi At His Word

Xi was extremely straightforward during his meeting with Biden, probably the
most he's ever officially been in a meeting with a US president. According to
the Chinese readout
(https://guancha.cn/internation/2024_11_17_755645.shtml…) here's what he
told Biden were the 7 "lessons of the past 4 years that need to be
remembered": 1) "There must be correct strategic understanding. The
'Thucydides Trap' is not historical destiny, a 'new Cold War' cannot and
should not be fought, containment of China is unwise, undesirable, and will
not succeed." 2) "Words must be trustworthy and actions must be fruitful. A
person cannot stand without credibility. China always follows through on its
words, but if the U.S. side always says one thing and does another, it is very
detrimental to America's image and damages mutual trust." 3) "Treat each
other as equals. In exchanges between two major countries like China and the
United States, neither side can reshape the other according to their own
wishes, nor can they suppress the other based on so-called 'position of
strength,' let alone deprive the other of legitimate development rights to
maintain their own leading position." 4) "Red lines and bottom lines cannot be
challenged. As two major countries, China and the United States inevitably
have some contradictions and differences, but they cannot harm each other's
core interests, let alone engage in conflict and confrontation. The One China
principle and the three China-US joint communiqués are the political
foundation of bilateral relations and must be strictly observed. Taiwan issue,
democracy and human rights, development path, and development rights are
China's four red lines, which cannot be challenged. [Note: Bold text in the
original] These are the most important guardrails and safety nets for China-US
relations." 5) "There should be more dialogue and cooperation. Under current
circumstances, the common interests between China and the United States
have not decreased but increased. Whether in areas of economy and trade,
agriculture, drug control, law enforcement, public health, or in facing global
challenges such as climate change and artificial intelligence, as well as
international hotspot issues, China-US cooperation is needed. Both sides
should extend the list of cooperation, make the cooperation cake bigger, and
achieve win-win cooperation." 6) "Respond to people's expectations. The
development of China-US relations should always focus on the wellbeing of
both peoples and gather the strength of both peoples. Both sides should build
bridges for personnel exchanges and cultural communication, and also
remove interference and obstacles, not artificially create a 'chilling effect.'" 7)
"Demonstrate great power responsibility. China and the United States should
always consider the future and destiny of humanity, take responsibility for
world peace, provide public goods for the world, and play a positive role in
world unity, including engaging in positive interaction, avoiding mutual
consumption, and not coercing other countries to take sides." Funnily, all this
is summarized in the official US readout (https://china.usembassy-
china.org.cn/readout-of-president-joe-bidens-meeting-with-president-xi-
jinping-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china-3/…) with this short sentence: "The
two leaders reviewed the bilateral relationship over the past four years". Talk
about an understatement The language compared to the readout of the last
Xi-Biden meeting in San Francisco one year ago is noticeably more forthright,
especially on the U.S.'s lack of trustworthiness ("if the U.S. side always says
one thing and does another..."). Looks like he's getting very frustrated with
U.S. duplicity... The 4 red lines he enumerates are also new (not new
individually as they've each been mentioned before, but packaging them
together as "four red lines" and explicitly labeling them as such in a president-
level diplomatic readout is new): 1) Taiwan issue 2) Democracy and human
rights 3) Development path/system 4) Development rights The Taiwan issue is
obviously not new as a red line but it's interesting that in the readout Xi
explicitly calls on the U.S. to "recognize the 'Taiwan independence' nature of
Lai Ching-te and the DPP authorities if the U.S. side wants to maintain peace
across the Taiwan Strait", and to "clearly oppose 'Taiwan independence'". The
US has always opposed Taiwan independence in words (if you read the US
State Department's page on "U.S. Relations With Taiwan", it's written "we do
not support Taiwan independence": https://state.gov/u-s-relations-with-
taiwan/…) but, as per Xi's point on "the U.S. side always saying one thing and
doing another", the U.S. has been very supporting of Lai Ching-te and the
DPP authorities even though they're explicitly a pro-independence party...
With the red lines on "Democracy and human rights" and "Development
path/system", it looks like China is effectively telling the U.S. it will not humor
them anymore in discussions about its internal system and so-called "human
rights", and that it will consider any U.S. initiative aimed at interfering with
China's internal affairs or otherwise shape China as hostile actions on the
same level as Taiwan. This is also clear with Xi telling Biden that "neither side
can reshape the other according to their own wishes". On development rights
Xi states that "the Chinese people's right to development cannot be deprived
or ignored" and criticizes how "while all countries have national security
needs, the concept shouldn't be overgeneralized or used as an excuse for
malicious restrictions and suppression". He also said that "great power
competition should not be the theme of the era; unity and cooperation are
needed to overcome difficulties together. 'Decoupling and breaking chains" is
not the solution; mutually beneficial cooperation is the path to common
development. 'Small yards with high fences' is not befitting of great powers."
In other words, he's telling Biden that he believes the U.S. is attempting to
curtail China's development in the guise of national security, but that this is
"an excuse for malicious restrictions and suppression" and a red line as China
has a fundamental right to develop as any other country. This is all, of course,
also signaling to the upcoming Trump administration. The fact these are "red
lines" means they're non-negotiable regardless of who leads the US: he's
telling Trump too that attempts to "reshape" China or restrict its development
will be viewed as hostile actions. And the emphasis on US "saying one thing
and doing another" also puts the future administration on notice that China will
judge the US by its actions rather than its diplomatic statements. Conclusion:
by framing these positions as "lessons learned" from the past four years, Xi is
effectively closing the book on one approach to US-China relations - which
he's obviously very critical about - and very clearly signaling to Trump a
change is badly needed, particularly around the "4 red lines" and matching
words with actions. The language is very confident, telling the U.S. they need
to "treat each other as equals" and that they have no "position of strength"
anymore.
Miscellany
Really, really bad
 Ian Bremmer

How world leaders are preparing for Trump’s

return
The global response to Donald Trump’s imminent return to power has been
nothing short of remarkable.
From Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu hinting at a potential Lebanon cease-fire
as a "gift" to the president-elect, to Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky saying the
war will “end faster” under the incoming administration, to European and
Asian leaders expressing Stockholm syndrome-levels of excitement to work
with him, foreign leaders have been lining up to kiss the president-elect’s ring
since his election victory two weeks ago.
To be sure, most US allies and adversaries still dislike and mistrust Trump.
But with memories of the clashes, chaos, and unpredictability of his first term
still fresh, they know that they get crosswise with Trump at their own peril. The
president-elect still believes America is being taken for a ride, values are
something other countries use to constrain US power, and allies are only as
good as the money they spend on US goods and protection. And Trump is
willing to flex Washington’s full military and economic muscle – whether in the
form of high tariffs or the withdrawal of US security support – to extract gains
from other nations.
World leaders are accordingly doing everything they can to avoid becoming a
target of his wrath, using flattery and favor to appeal to Trump’s ego and
transactional nature in the hopes of getting in his good graces. After all, they
know Trump is nothing if not willing to sit down with anyone – whether a
longstanding democratic ally or a brutal dictator – to try to cut a deal that
makes him look good at home.
The upshot is that at least in the early days of his presidency, Donald Trump
is poised to rack up far more foreign policy wins than many people appreciate.
Not because he’s a “stable genius” or a particularly gifted negotiator, but
because he’ll be running the world’s largest economy and most powerful
military, with leverage over virtually every country and less aversion to
wielding it than any US president that came before him.
But that’s table stakes for Trump. There are three reasons why his ability to
get concessions from other countries and put points on the board early on will
be greater than during his first term.
First, Trump is no longer isolated, with a growing number of world leaders
eager to welcome him to the international arena. Eight years ago, the
president-elect was an outlier, with few true friends on the global stage apart
from Netanyahu, Gulf leaders, Hungary’s Viktor Orban, Japan’s Shinzo Abe,
India’s Narendra Modi, and a handful of others. But things have changed
since.
Italy's Giorgia Meloni, currently the most popular G7 leader, shares Trump's
views on immigration, social policy, and economic nationalism. Argentina’s
Javier Milei, the chainsaw-wielding “Trump of the Pampas,” was the first
foreign leader to meet with him after the election. In Canada, the Conservative
Party's Pierre Poilievre is poised to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau,
promising a much more Trump-aligned relationship. Germany’s Olaf Scholz
will likewise soon be replaced, probably by the opposition conservative
Christian Democrat leader Friedrich Merz, a wealthy former businessman who
is ideologically closer to the incoming American president. South Korean
President Yoon Suk Yeol is strategically positioning himself to become the
new Shinzo Abe, going as far as taking up golf again to establish a closer
relationship with Trump. The list goes on.
Trump is no more a fan of multilateralism than he was eight years ago. He
remains mistrustful of alliances and indifferent to other countries’ values and
political systems. But whenever he attends gatherings of the G7, G20, and
NATO now, the president-elect will at least be surrounded by like-minded
leaders who will be much more receptive to his “America First” agenda and
inclined to play by his rules.
Second, the world is much more dangerous than it was in 2017, raising the
stakes of misalignment with Trump. Major wars raging in Europe and the
Middle East, heightened US-China tensions, and a more fragile global
economy make the costs of being on the wrong side of the president-elect
exponentially higher than they were during Trump’s first term.
And third, Trump’s domestic political power is significantly more consolidated
this time around. The president-elect has unified control of Congress and a
pliant Republican Party, knows his way around Washington, DC, and is
surrounding himself with far more ideologically aligned loyalists than in his first
term. Gone are the institutionalist career staffers and establishment
Republicans who often checked Trump’s most disruptive impulses. For world
leaders, this means alternative backchannels to get around the president-
elect’s foreign policy preferences won’t be nearly as available or effective.
Whether or not they like it, it’s Trump’s way or the highway now.
It’s no wonder that we’re seeing so many countries preemptively bend the
knee, desperate to find common ground with Trump before he takes office.
China, for instance, is floating potential concessions to avert an economically
destabilizing trade war, from organizing a Ukraine peace conference to buying
US Treasuries and increasing purchases of American goods. Iran granted a
meeting to Trump advisor-extraordinaire Elon Musk in an apparent effort to
facilitate a de-escalatory deal. Taiwan’s leadership is planning a massive new
American arms purchase offer to show Trump they’re serious about paying
more for US protection. Meanwhile, Ukraine is not only expressing readiness
to negotiate a cease-fire but is also weighing several sweeteners – including
potential business deals, access to the country’s natural resources, and
Ukrainian troop deployments to replace US forces in Europe after the war – to
convince Trump that continued US support is in his personal and political
interests.
None of this means that every effort to appease Trump will succeed, or that
Trump’s mere presence in the White House will end every war, de-escalate
every conflict, and resolve every disagreement. If history is any guide, most
attempts to strike a lasting deal with the president-elect will fail. In the long
run, his approach will erode America’s influence on the global stage, deepen
the G-Zero vacuum of leadership, and make the world a more dangerous
place.
In the near term, however, Trump’s penchant for bilateral deal-making,
disregard for longstanding American norms and values, reputation for
unpredictability, and unrestrained leadership of the world’s sole superpower
will increase the odds of improbable breakthroughs.
Welcome to Trump’s international honeymoon – it may not last long, but at
least nobody’s having any fun.