Unit 4 – Probability, Random Variables, and Probability Distributions

Notes 5 – Binomial and Geometric Probability Distributions

The Binomial Distribution

There are many experiments and situations that result in what are called dichotomous (Bernoulli, Binary, etc.)
responses – responses for which there exist two possible choices (True / False, Yes / No, Defective / Non-
defective, Male / Female, etc.). A simple example of such an experiment is that of tossing a coin, where there
are only two possibilities, Heads or Tails. There are many other types of experiments similar to a coin toss
where you are observing the “success” or “failure” of a certain outcome. Such experiments give us a probability
distribution called a binomial distribution.

Binomial Experiments - experiments having all four conditions:

1. Each observation falls into one of two categories – we call them “success” or “failure.” (it is important to
realize that success isn’t necessarily a positive. If for instance, our experiment is concerned with the number of
people who get colds after being doused with water on a winter day, success might be defined as getting a cold.)

2. There is a fixed number of n observations.

3. The n observations are independent. Knowing the result of one observation tells you nothing about the other
observations.

4. The probability of success p is the same for each observation.

Binomial Distributions - the distribution of the count X successes in the binomial experiment with parameters
n and p. The possible values of X are the integers from 0 to n. We say that X ~ B(n, p)

Directions: For the following examples, determine if they are a binomial setting or not. Explain why.
Example 1) Tossing 20 coins and counting the Example 2) Picking 5 cards from a standard deck and
number of heads. counting the number of hearts. We replace the card each
time and reshuffle.

Example 3) Picking 5 cards from a standard Example 4) Choosing a card from a standard deck until
deck and counting the number of hearts without you get a heart. We replace the card each time and
reshuffling. reshuffle.
Calculating Binomial Probabilities
Example: Calvin is about to take a five-question true/false quiz for which he is not prepared. He will be
guessing on all five questions.

What is the probability that:

1) He gets all the answers correct?
2) He gets all the answers wrong?
3) He gets exactly three answers correct?
4) He will pass the quiz?

Solution (without using a binomial):

We’ll use ‘c’ denote a correct answer and ‘w’ denote a wrong answer. Listed below are all the possible
combinations of correct and incorrect responses on this quiz and make a probability distribution for them. Let X
= number of correct responses.

What is the probability that:

1) He gets all the answers correct? 2) He gets all the answers wrong?

3) He gets exactly three answers correct? 4) He will pass the quiz?

There are 2 ways to calculate binomial probabilities. One involves a formula and the second uses the calculator.
If X has a binomial distribution with n observations with probability of p on each observation, the possible
values of X are 0, 1, 2, … , n. If x is any one of these values, the probability that X equals x is given by

Where is a combination of taking n things x at a time.

Combinations on the calc:

n = _____________________________

x = _____________________________

p = _____________________________

Explaining the formula:

The Binomial Setting

· B: Binary Trial – the possible outcomes can be classified as “success” or “failure”
· I: Independent – Trials must be independent of each other
· N: The number of trials n of the chance process must be fixed in advance
· S: There is the same probability p of success on each trial.

Let’s apply the binomial probability information to Calvin’s true/false test:

B:

I:

N:

S:
What is the probability Calvin What is the probability Calvin will pass?
gets exactly 3 correct?

Binomials on the Calculator

On your calculator, you will see a lot of distributions with “pdf” and “cdf” after it and THERE IS A
DIFFERENCE!!!

pdf = probability distribution function and is used with the distribution when you are trying to calculate is P(X
= x)
P(X = x)can be computed using binompdf(n, p, x)

What is the probability that Calvin gets exactly 3 correct?

cdf = cumulative distribution function and is used with the distribution when you are trying to calculate the
probability of an interval of values

P(X ≤ x) can be computed using binomcdf(n, p, x)

What is the probability Calvin will pass?

Remember, a binomial random variable is DISCRETE! So the inequalities matter!!! You calculator can only do
less than or equal to, so all inequalities (if you use your calculator) must be converted to that inequality.
Example: W ~ B(5, 0.4). Find:

P(W ≤ 1) P(W < 3)

P(W ≥ 4) P(W > 4)

The Mean and Standard Deviation of a Binomial Random Variable

Like all probability distributions, the binomial distribution has a mean and a standard deviation. The formulas
for finding these values are quite simple:

X ~ B(n, p) then:

µX = 𝑛𝑝 σX = √𝑛𝑝(1 − 𝑝)

Example: What is the expected value and standard deviation of Calvin's quiz? Interpret these values in context.

Example: Suppose that the probability that any random freshman girl will agree to go with Nick to the senior
prom is 0.1. Suppose Nick asks 20 random freshman girls to the prom, what is the probability that exactly 1 will
say “yes”? That at least 1 will say “yes”? On average, how many freshman girls will agree to go with Nick to
the prom? What is the standard deviation of this binomial distribution?
The Geometric Distribution
The binomial random variable had X = number of successes in a fixed number of trials.

Our geometric random variable will have X = number of trials until you get the first success

Examples: 1) flip a coin until you get heads

2) Roll a die until you get a 6
3) Throw darts at a dartboard until you hit the bull’s-eye

A geometric distribution must have the following properties:

B: ________________ - Each trial in the experiment must have only two possible outcomes (success or
failure)

I: __________________ - The trials in the experiment are independent

T: _____________________________________ -The variable of interest is the number of trials

required to reach the first success.

S: ________________________ - The probability of success, p, doesn’t change from trial to trial

Geometric Probability Formula

Example: You roll a 6 sided dice. Let X = number of trials until you roll a 6.

a) What is the probability that you roll a six on the first trial?

b) What is the probability that you roll another number the first trial, but a six on the second trial?

c) What is the probability that you roll another number on the first two trials, but a six on the third trial?

d) Sum up this distribution in a table below.

*Can X be 0? *When do we stop the table? *What pattern are you noticing?
 This can be summed up with the geometric probability formula!

X has a geometric distribution with a probability of success p on each trial, and x represents the trial that you
get your first success,
P(X = x) = (1 − p)x−1 (p)

EX 1) What is the probability that it takes you 5 rolls until you get a six?

EX 2) What is the probability that it takes you 10 rolls until you get a six?

EX 3) What is the probability that your six happens within 3 rolls?

EX 4) What is the probability that it takes at least 4 rolls to get a six?

Geometric Probability on the Calculator

E: geometpdf(p, x) computes P(X = x)
F: geometcdf(p, x) computes P(X ≤ x)
Mean and Standard Deviation of a Geometric Random Variable

𝜇𝑋 = 𝐸(𝑋) = How many trials we expect to run before we get our first success.

𝜎𝑋 = The typical number of trials that deviate from the mean.

EX 5) To start her old lawn mower, Iris has to pull a cord and hope for some luck. On any particular pull, the
mower has a 20% chance of starting.

(a) Find the probability that it takes her exactly 3 pulls to start the mower.

(b) Find the probability that it takes her more than 10 pulls to start the mower.

(c) How many pulls do you expect it will take Iris to make?
 Summary: Comparing Binomial and Geometric
When do we use a BINOMIAL random variable? When do we use a GEOMETRIC random variable?

Binomial Random Variable

X = _______________________________________________________

P(X = x)

P(X ≤ x)

Mean = _____________ = _______________ Standard Deviation = _________ = _______________________

Binomial Probability Distribution

X 0 1 2 ... n

P(X)

Geometric Random Variable

X = _______________________________________________________

P(X = x)

P(X ≤ x)

Mean = _____________ = _______________ Standard Deviation = _____________ = _______________

Geometric Probability Distribution

X 1 2 3 4 ...

P(X)