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16 views6 pages

PDF Document-5

Uploaded by

Vincent Balagu
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Probability

If E and F are two events associated with the sample space of a random experiment, then the conditional
probability of event E, given that F has already occurred, is denoted by P(E/F) and is given by the formula:

P (E/F) = , where P (F) ≠ 0

Example:
A die is rolled twice and the sum of the numbers appearing is observed to be 7. What is the conditional
probability that the number 3 has appeared at-least once?

Solution:
Let E: Event of getting the sum as 7 and F: Event of appearing 3 at-least once

If E and F are two events of a sample space S of an experiment, then the following are the properties of
conditional probability:
0 ≤ P(E/F) ≤ 1
P(F/F) = 1
P(S/F) = 1
P(E’/F) = 1 – P(E/F)
If A and B are two events of a sample space S and F is an event of S such that P(F) ≠ 0, then

P((A ∪ B)/F) = P(A/F) + P(B/F) – P((A ∩ B)/F)


P ((A ∪ B)/F) = P (A/F) + P (B/F), if the events A and B are disjoint.

Multiplication theorem of probability: If E, F, and G are events of a sample space S of an experiment,


then
P (E ∩ F) = P (E). P(F/E), if P(E) ≠ 0
P (E ∩ F) = P (F). P(E/F), if P(F) ≠ 0
P (E ∩ F ∩ G) = P (E). P (F/E). P (G/ (E ∩ F)) = P (E). P (F/E). P(G/EF)

Two events E and F are said to be independent events, if the probability of occurrence of one of them is not
affected by the occurrence of the other.
If E and F are two independent events, then
P(F/E) = P(F), provided P(E) ≠ 0
P(E/F) = P(E), provided P(F) ≠ 0
If three events A, B, and C are independent events, then
P (A ∩ B ∩ C) = P (A). P (B). P(C)

If the events E and F are independent events, then


E’ and F are independent
E’ and F’ are independent
A set of events E1, E2, … En is said to represent a partition of the sample space S, if
Ei ∩ Ej = ø, i ≠ j, i, j = 1, 2, 3, … n
E1 E2 ∪ … ∪ En = S
P(Ei) > 0, i = 1, 2, 3, … n

Bayes’ Theorem: If E1, E2,... En are n non-empty events, which constitute a partition of sample space S,
then

Example:
There are three urns. First urn contains 3 white and 2 red balls, second urn contains 2 white and 3 red balls,
and third urn contains 4 white and 1 red balls. A white ball is drawn at random. Find the probability that the
white ball is drawn from the third urn?

Solution:
Let E1, E2 and E3 be the events of choosing the first second and third urn respectively.
Then,
Let A be the event that a white ball is drawn.

Then,

By the theorem of total probability,


By Bayes’ theorem,
probability of getting the ball from third urn given that it is white

A random variable is a real-valued function whose domain is the sample space of a random experiment.
The probability distribution of a random variable X is the system of numbers:

X: x1 x2 … xn
P(X): p1 p2 … pn

Where,
Here, the real numbers x1, x2, …, xn are the possible values of the random variable X and pi (i = 1, 2, …, n)
is the probability of the random variable X taking the value of xi i.e., P(X = xi) = pi

Mean/expectation of a random variable: Let X be a random variable whose possible values x1, x2, x3 …
xn occur with probabilities p1, p2, p3 … pn respectively. The mean of X (denoted bym) or the expectation of

X (denoted by E(X)) is the number .

That is,
Variance of a random variable: Let X be a random variable whose possible values x1, x2 … xn occur with
probabilities p(x1), p(x2) … p(xn) respectively. Let m = E(X) be the mean of X. The variance of X denoted
by Var (X) or is calculated by any of the following formulae:

It is advisable to students to use the fourth formula.

Binomial distribution: For binomial distribution B(n, p), the probability of x successes is denoted by
P(X = x) or P(X) and is given by
Here, P(X) is called the probability function of the binomial distribution.

Example:
An unbiased coin is tossed 5 times. Find the probability of getting atleast 4 heads.

Solution:
Let the random variable X denotes the number of heads.
Here, n = 5 and P (getting a head)

P (getting at-least 4 heads)

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