Biological Conservation 144 (2011) 2873–2881

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Biological Conservation
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/biocon

Extinction of a shark population in the Archipelago of Saint Paul’s Rocks

(equatorial Atlantic) inferred from the historical record
Osmar J. Luiz a,⇑, Alasdair J. Edwards b
a
Departamento de Zoologia, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, SP 13083-970, Brazil
b
School of Biology, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, United Kingdom

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Detecting and determining the validity of local extinctions is an important conservation measure in order
Received 10 January 2011 to uncover management failures. There are quantitative and qualitative methods that estimate extinction
Received in revised form 2 August 2011 probability based on past sighting records. However, because current baselines about species’ abun-
Accepted 6 August 2011
dances and distributions in the sea were mostly established after humans had started affecting marine
Available online 8 September 2011
populations, researchers must often rely on historical data to elucidate past environmental conditions.
We review early historical records from the Archipelago of Saint Paul’s Rocks, together with data from
Keywords:
recent expeditions, with the aim of testing the hypothesis that reef sharks (Carcharhinus spp.) have
Shifting baselines
Local extinction
become extinct there. Our analyses are based on non-parametric probabilistic tests for extinction and
Oceanic island on a qualitative framework to examine and judge as objectively as possible the likelihood of local extinc-
Carcharhinus galapagensis tion. Until the mid-20th century, visitors to St. Paul’s Rocks invariably commented on the remarkable
Carcharhinus falciformis number of sharks around the Archipelago. These observations contrast with those of expeditions carried
Fishing impact out during the last decade, which report no carcharhinid reef sharks while scuba diving in the archipel-
Probabilistic tests ago, despite many more hours of underwater fieldwork than previous expeditions. All quantitative and
qualitative methods conclude that the reef shark Carcharhinus galapagensis is locally extinct at St. Paul’s
Rocks after a sharp decrease in abundance that took place following the commencement of fishing. How-
ever, the persistence of occasional individuals of the once locally common Carcharhinus falciformis in the
vicinity of the Archipelago, as a result of constant immigration of this oceanic species from outside the
area, suggest that the population might recover if the present fishing pressure was removed.
Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction edge of their unexploited state (Baum and Myers, 2004).

Unfortunately, most environmental baselines were established
Human impacts on marine environments have been shown to after humans had started affecting marine populations (Pauly,
be greater than previously thought (Jackson et al., 2001; Roberts, 1995). As a result, researchers must rely on historical evidence in
2007). In particular, the effects of unsustainable commercial fish- order to estimate long-term changes in marine ecosystems
ing are highly pervasive, collapsing exploited populations in a mat- (Jackson, 1997; Sáenz-Arroyo et al., 2005a,b, 2006; Roberts,
ter of decades and producing direct and indirect effects through 2007). Over the last decade, researchers from various disciplines
community food webs (Pauly et al., 1998; Jackson et al., 2001; have engaged in reconstructing past ecosystem changes. To find
Worm and Myers, 2003; Ward and Myers, 2005). Depletion of historical baselines, they have used a remarkable diversity of data
top-predators and large herbivores by intensive fishing has altered sources, ranging from paleontological and archaeological evidence,
the structure and function of marine systems (Bascompte et al., to molecular markers, historical records and fisheries statistics
2005; Mumby et al., 2006; Myers et al., 2007). Moreover, exploita- (Lotze and Worm, 2009).
tion is considered to be the main factor leading to local extinctions, The Archipelago of Saint Paul’s Rocks (Arquipélago de São Pedro e
i.e. extinction that is restricted to local or regional scales, in the sea São Paulo), hereafter St. Paul’s Rocks, is a remote group of barren
(Dulvy et al., 2003). islets in equatorial Atlantic Ocean, on the mid-Atlantic ridge
Understanding the full extent and manner in which anthropo- (00°550 N; 29°210 W); The Archipelago, which belongs to Brazil, is
genic forces have impacted natural ecosystems requires knowl- only 400 m across at its greatest extent, lying approximately
960 km off Cabo de São Roque, north-eastern coast of Brazil and
⇑ Corresponding author. Present address: Department of Biological Sciences, 1890 km south-west of Senegal, West Africa (Fig. 1). The fauna of
Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia. Tel.: +61 0298508175. St. Paul’s Rocks is of considerable zoogeographical interest because
E-mail address: [email protected] (O.J. Luiz). of its isolation, small size and the presence of endemic species

0006-3207/$ - see front matter Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2011.08.004
2874 O.J. Luiz, A.J. Edwards / Biological Conservation 144 (2011) 2873–2881

Fig. 1. Location of the Archipelago of Saint Paul’s Rocks.

(Lubbock and Edwards, 1980, 1981; Edwards and Lubbock, 1983a; ensis aggregates around isolated oceanic islands where it is often
Joyeux et al., 2001; Feitoza et al., 2003; Luiz et al., 2007). found in large numbers (Randall, 1963; Edwards and Lubbock,
Commercial fishing by Japanese boats commenced at St. Paul’s 1982; Compagno, 1984; Wetherbee et al., 1996; Hobbs et al.,
Rocks in 1956 under an agreement with the Brazilian government. 2008). It lives close to reefs, has a limited home range, and is con-
Seven years later this was suspended (Oliveira et al., 1997; Vaske sidered as resident at the islands where it is found (Meyer et al.,
et al., 2010). Brazilian fishing boats started exploiting the area spo- 2010). Conversely, C. falciformis is an epipelagic species, inhabiting
radically in the 1970s, and since 1988 a commercial fishing fleet mostly oceanic open waters but occasionally found roaming over
from Brazil has been operating continuously (Oliveira et al., reefs (Compagno, 1984). Large bodied sharks have an important
1997; Vaske et al., 2006, 2010). Fishing is carried out from close ecological role as predators in marine habitats, exerting a strong
to the shore (10s of meters from the Rocks) to a few kilometers top-down control over the abundance of other marine organisms
from the Archipelago. The main species targeted are large pelagic (Heithaus et al., 2008). Both species have low reproductive capac-
fishes, which comprise 90% of the catch, and include yellowfin tuna ity and limited intrinsic rebound potential, and are therefore con-
(Thunnus albacares), wahoo (Acanthocybium solandri) and rainbow sidered to be susceptible to over-exploitation (Smith et al., 1998;
runner (Elagatis bipinnulata) (Oliveira et al., 1997; Vaske et al., Cavanagh et al., 2003). The major threats for these species are long-
2006, 2010), which are caught mostly by longlines and hand lines. lines and other bait-fishing activities around islands and sea-
The fleet is composed of small boats (15-m trawlers), which con- mounts throughout their range (Cavanagh et al., 2003; Afonso
tinually take turns to fish, with from one to a maximum of four et al., 2011; Robbins et al., 2011; Whoriskey et al., 2011).
fishing boats operating simultaneously in the Archipelago every Expeditions in the 18th, 19th and most of the 20th century that
day, all year round (Vaske et al., 2006). Despite not being targeted, visited St. Paul’s Rocks, including those of Charles Darwin on the
significant quantities of sharks were caught by commercial fishing H.M.S. Beagle in 1832 (Darwin, 1845) and of the officers and crew
until the 1970s (Oliveira et al., 1997; P. Conolly, pers. comm. to of H.M.S. Challenger in 1873 (e.g. Moseley, 1892), invariably com-
A.J.E.). Nowadays, only oceanic sharks are occasionally caught by mented on the remarkable number of sharks around the Archipel-
longlines (Vaske et al., 2010). ago (Edwards, 1985). These observations contrast with those of
Our study focuses on the drastic reduction of the carcharhinid expeditions carried out during the last decade by Brazilian field
shark population (historically primarily consisting of the Galapa- ichthyologists who report no reef sharks, despite many more hours
gos shark, Carcharhinus galapagensis, and the Silky shark, Carcharhi- of underwater fieldwork than previous expeditions (Feitoza et al.,
nus falciformis; see Edwards and Lubbock, 1982) at St. Paul’s Rocks. 2003; Vaske et al., 2005).
Both species are large bodied (up to 300 cm length) and have Assessing local extinctions is particularly important because
wide circumtropical distributions (Compagno, 1984), however, they are the warning signs of conservation and management fail-
they present contrasting behaviour and habitat usage. C. galapag- ures and are early steps toward global extinctions (Pitcher, 2001;
 O.J. Luiz, A.J. Edwards / Biological Conservation 144 (2011) 2873–2881 2875

Dulvy et al., 2003). Determining the validity of a local extinction is intervals for the estimated extinction time given the characteristics
therefore important, and can be instrumental in promoting politi- of a sighting record, which can then be used to evaluate whether a
cal will to develop legal protection to prevent further losses. species that has not been sighted for some time is likely to be ex-
In order to detect changes in the carcharhinid shark population tinct (Reed, 1996; Roberts and Solow, 2003; Rivadeneira et al.,
at St. Paul’s Rocks, we compare sighting records before and after 2009; Elphick et al., 2010). These methods, however, differ in the
the commencement of commercial fishing, based on review of pub- stringency of their assumptions about the nature of the sampling
lished early travelers’ diaries, naturalists’ observations and scien- record. For example, some tests are less complex than others but
tific papers that provide casual or formal accounts of the biology require a constant sampling effort over time. Other methods make
of Saint Paul’s Rocks. Our aim is to test the hypothesis that sharks less restrictive assumptions about sampling intensities, but tend to
of the genus Carcharhinus have become extinct at St. Paul’s Rocks. produce large confidence intervals (Rivadeneira et al., 2009).
Our analyses are based on two approaches using the historical Rivadeneira et al. (2009) analyzed seven statistical tests accord-
data: (1) from non-parametric probabilistic tests for extinction ing to their restrictive assumptions and performance under differ-
and estimates of population decline, based on sight records ent sampling scenarios. They provide a useful guideline to choose
(McPherson and Myers, 2009; Rivadeneira et al., 2009) and (2) un- among different tests based on the characteristics of the sighting
der a qualitative framework to examine the historical data and records. For St. Paul’s Rocks, these are as follows: (1) the sampling
judge as objectively as possible the likelihood that the species have effort is variable over time; (2) sightings arise from sporadic expe-
become extinct (Butchart et al., 2006). ditions separated by periods of no effort; (3) sampling has not de-
clined over time; and (4) the locality has been well sampled after
the putative extinction date of the species. Two probabilistic tests
2. Materials and methods
fit these characteristics and were used to test the hypothesis of
extinction for the Galapagos shark at St. Paul’s Rocks. These tests
2.1. Data collection
were originally described by Marshall (1997) and McCarthy
(1998) and were summarized by Rivadeneira et al. (2009). The for-
We accessed historical records of sharks from books, journals
mulae for each test are, respectively:
and reports from the 18th century to the present. Biological data
(opportunistic collections of fish, marine invertebrates, algae, birds i¼T
Xci X
i¼T n
and terrestrial arthropods) on St. Paul’s Rocks have been derived ei ¼ k ei ð1Þ
from occasional fleeting visits by oceanographic vessels which, i¼T nþ1 i¼1

apart from H.M.S. Challenger, have been primarily intent on non-

and
biological research, and from brief stops by ships carrying polar
expeditions to or from Antarctica (Edwards, 1985). Members of Pn
i¼T
the Cambridge Expedition to Saint Paul’s Rocks, which visited the i¼T
Xci ei
i¼1
Archipelago in 1979, eventually provided a detailed overview of ei ¼ ð2Þ
að1=HÞ
their biology (e.g. Lubbock and Edwards, 1981; Edwards and Lub- i¼1

bock, 1983a,b). All references in the exhaustive bibliography of

For both methods, extinction time corresponds to the time at which
the natural history of St. Paul’s Rocks (Edwards, 1985) were re-
the sampling level at the left side of the equations equals the right
viewed for information on sharks as were all subsequent published
side of the equation. Tci is the upper bound of the confidence inter-
accounts and unpublished records of Brazilian expeditions. Usable
val of the extinction time, Tn is the time of the last positive sighting,
shark sightings data were obtained from visits (29) where the mar-
a is the confidence level (0.05), H is the total number of sightings,
ine fauna was remarked upon.
and ei is the sampling effort (probability of sampling) in the ith year
In 1998 the Brazilian Navy established a scientific research sta- 1
(Rivadeneira et al., 2009). In Eq. (1) k ¼ aðH1Þ  1. The number of
tion at St. Paul’s Rocks. Data from the period after the research sta-
days that each expedition spent in the Archipelago of St. Paul’s
tion establishment were obtained by interviewing the lead
Rocks was used as proxy for sampling effort.
researchers of 13 expeditions made from 1998 to 2009, of which
In order to investigate the timing and causes of the population
the primary objective was to study the demersal fish fauna. During
decline of sharks we used a further approach that focuses on esti-
interviews, the researchers were required to state if they had re-
mating population trends rather than verifying extinction (McPh-
corded any sharks during their underwater fieldwork and, if posi-
erson and Myers, 2009). This method fits a series of generalized
tive, if they are able to identify the species they had sighted. Based
linear models that provide multiple estimates of decline under
on the data derived from historical accounts and interviews we have
alternate scenarios regarding the appropriate reference period. As
constructed a sighting record for carcharhinid shark occurrences
in the previous two methods, we treated years in between the
based on the year of each expedition, the presence or absence of
expeditions as missing values. Details about the method’s assump-
sharks, and the time spent by each expedition at the Archipelago.
tions and programming code to implement it in the freely available
Based on behavioral observations, photographs and measure-
software R can be found in McPherson and Myers (2009).
ments of three specimens, Edwards and Lubbock (1982) concluded
Complementing the statistical tests, we have evaluated the like-
that there were two carcharhinid species present at the Rocks.
lihood that carcharhinid sharks have become extinct at St. Paul’s
These were C. galapagensis, which was the most common species
Rocks using a framework for categorizing the level of confidence
observed during the daytime, and C. falciformis, which was ob-
that a species is actually extinct based on observational data (But-
served close to the Rocks at night (Lubbock and Edwards, 1981).
chart et al., 2006). The framework considers evidence for and
against extinction and the time since the species was last reported.
2.2. Data analyses Specifically, it is considered as evidence for extinction if: (a) for
species with recent last records, the decline has been well docu-
The absence of a species in a sighting record does not necessar- mented; (b) severe threatening processes are known to have oc-
ily mean that it is extinct. Instead it could reflect reduced sampling curred (e.g. extensive habitat loss, the spread of alien invasive
effort or short-term variation in the abundance of the species (Riv- predators, intensive hunting, etc.); (c) the species possesses attri-
adeneira et al., 2009). In order to address this shortcoming, proba- butes known to predispose taxa to extinction, e.g. natural rarity
bilistic methods have been developed to generate confidence and/or tiny range (as evidenced by paucity of specimens relative
2876 O.J. Luiz, A.J. Edwards / Biological Conservation 144 (2011) 2873–2881

Table 1
Historical observations of sharks at St. Paul’s Rocks.

Perseverance: December 1799

‘‘Sharks were numerous about the ship, and our people, in attempting to take them, lost a number of hooks and lines, and broke several pair of grains [pronged
harpoons].’’ (Delano, 1817)
HMS Beagle: February 1832
‘‘While our party were scrambling over the rock, a determined struggle was going on in the water, between the boats’ crews and sharks. Numbers of fine fish, like the
groupars [sic] (or garoupas) of the Bermuda Islands, bit eagerly at baited hooks put overboard by the men; but as soon as a fish was caught, a rush of voracious sharks
was made at him, and notwithstanding blows of oars and boat hooks, the ravenous monsters could not be deterred from seizing and taking away more than half fish
that were hooked
‘‘At short intervals the men beat the water with their oars all round the boats, in order to drive away the sharks; and for a few minutes afterwards the groupars
swarmed about the baited hooks, and were caught as fast as the lines could be hauled up – then another rush of sharks drove then away – those just caught were
snatched off the hooks; and again the men were obligated to beat the water.’’ (Fitzroy, 1839)
‘‘The sharks and the seamen in the boats maintained a constant struggle which should secure the great share of the prey caught by the fishing-lines.’’ (Darwin, 1845)
HMS Erebus: November 1839
‘‘One of our party, in attempting to wade across a narrow channel, was taken off his feet by a heavy wave, . . . was as frequently carried back by the retiring wave; whilst,
unable to afford him the least assistance, we could only look on from the opposite side with the most painful apprehensions of seeing him taken away by one of the
numerous sharks that were playing about the cove. . .’’ (Ross, 1847)
HMS Challenger: August 1873
‘‘In the evening volunteers for fishing were called for . . . Then we caught more sharks, and it was at last discovered that we ought to have been fishing at the surface, and
not at the bottom. As soon as we took the sinkers off our lines and allowed the baits to float we began to haul in large fish . . . The fish were ‘‘Cavalli’’. . . a species of
Caranx . . . Every now and then some one hooked a shark (Carcharias sp.), and then there was a tremendous fight, and all the lines in the boat were tangled and fouled
. . . Sometimes, a tremendous sudden pull was felt at one’s line, . . . and some big shark went off with hook and bait . . .’’ (Moseley, 1892)
‘‘Excellent and most exciting fishing it was, excepting for the sharks, which were most exasperating, rushing off with the hooks in a hopelessly irresistible manner. . . .
We also caught numbers of the most unwelcome young sharks.’’ (Campbell, 1876)
SY Scotia: December 1902
‘‘Dec. 10th, St. Paul’s Rocks, 0°550 N. 29°220 W. – Sharks innumerable. Secured eight specimens, and took dimensions and weight of each, . . . Several fish seen but none
caught, as the sharks took every bait.’’ (Wilton, 1908)
‘‘We backed in carefully and Pirie took the first chance to jump as the boat was pulled off. He touched the rock, missed his footing, and fell among the sharks. We had no
time to think we had lost our doctor. One doesn’t think on such occasions. Every man seized an oar or boat-hook and stabbed and pushed the sharks in the hope of
scaring them. Pirie popped up alongside the boat and Davidson caught him by the scruff of the neck from the turmoil of angry sharks . . .’’ (Brown and Murdoch,
1923)
RYS Valhalla: December 1902 and December 1905
‘‘The water round the rocks swarms with sharks . . .’’ (Nicoll, 1904)
‘‘Fishing here presented a somewhat unusual difficulty, for sharks swarmed in incredible numbers, and it was a difficulty task to avoid hooking them instead of more
serviceable game; indeed, so numerous were the sharks that, on our return to the ship, we found that during our absence no less than twenty had been caught, all of
then at no greater distance than two hundred yards from the shore.’’
‘‘Several fishes and one bird were dropped into the water during the process of embarkation, and they were immediately taken by sharks, so it was just as well that
none of our party slipped into the water.’’
‘‘Judging from the enormous number of sharks round St. Paul’s Rocks, there should be a great supply of food.’’ (Nicoll, 1908).
RYS Quest: November 1921
‘‘On approach to the Rocks it was evident that a considerable swell was running, and the landing was slightly difficult . . . Sharks swarmed about the boat.’’
‘‘The cove in the midst of the Rocks teems with marine life. The floor, which lies at from 6 to 8 fathoms at one end and slopes in to about 1 fathom, is covered with
seaweed. Sharks of small size, from 2 to 8 feet in length, swarm in large numbers. It was interesting to note that the fish which maintained a certain level seemed to
be unafraid of them, but if they left that level, as for instance when we hooked them and drew then up, the sharks turned and went for them in a flash. We were
desirous of obtaining a number of fresh fish for food, but had the greatest difficult in getting them past the sharks to the surface. We at last adopted the expedient of
harpooning the sharks, killing them and throwing them back.’’ (Wild, 1923a)
‘‘We lay to under their lee and dropped a boat. Immediately a countless shoal of sharks came about us, their fins showing above water in dozens on every side. . . . The
landing of the catch, however, proved not so easy. The little cove swarmed with sharks, which were attracted by the boat, and came about us in scores. . . . The
moment, however, we hooked one [fish] and started to pull it up, the sharks turned like a streak and went for it with such voracity that we had the greatest difficulty
in getting it to the surface. What was worse, they frequently bit through the lines and took the hook also. . . . On one occasion I succeeded in getting a fish clear of the
water, and thinking for once I had eluded the sharks, was in the act of swinging it aboard when there was a flash of something white, an ugly snout broke water, and I
was left gazing stupidly at half a head. . . . Indeed, it was not safe to put a hand over the gunwale, for immediately a head rose towards it.’’ (Wild, 1923b)
Meteor: 10 May 1925
‘‘A shoal of sharks surrounded the ship, sometimes more than twenty, and after a short time we have one of these most hated enemies of the sailors on the fishing line
to the joy of the crew.’’ [This was then cut up and thrown to the other sharks.] (Speiss, 1928)a
Albatross: 1948
‘‘There was no need to swim for the shore, which was perhaps just as well, considering the throng of eager and probably very hungry sharks which expectantly crowded
around the boat, viciously snapping at our oars! The main island, about 300 feet long, on which we landed – the other islands were inaccessible owing to the swell
and the sharks – had the remnants of a small lighthouse on its highest rock, ...’’ (Pettersson, 1954)
USS Atka: March 1955
‘‘The numerous sharks, which swarm in the waters of the cove and around the Rocks, speedily attack hooked fish and either snatch the whole fish off the line or leave
only a half fish or head on the hook for the fisherman. On the ATKA, the chief medical corpsman hooked a beautiful tuna-like fish from the fantail several hundred
yards off the Rocks, but when he hauled in his catch all that remained was an enormous head fully a foot high . . .’’ (Tressler et al., 1956)
R.V. Chain: March 1963; R.V. Atlantis II: 1966
‘‘Not merely has the shark population – as noted during both our 1963 and 1966 visits – diminished to a point that permits ready retrieval of fish hooked close to the
islands, quite contrary to the experiences of the men on ‘Beagle’ or on ‘Challenger’, and even permits a toothsome geologist or two to fall into the lagoon and come up
swimming with his rocks in his hands.’’ (Bowen, 1966)
‘‘Many small sharks were seen, although only one large one was noticed by anyone in our party. There were fewer sharks than reported by earlier visitors.’’ (Masch,
1966).
RRS Bransfield: May 1971
‘‘. . . the ship’s launch was used to catch fish just off-shore from the Rocks. . . . Difficulty was experienced in obtaining these specimens as fish once hooked were
frequently taken by marauding sharks before they could be brought on board.’’ (Smith et al., 1974).
 O.J. Luiz, A.J. Edwards / Biological Conservation 144 (2011) 2873–2881 2877

Table 1 (continued)

Cambridge Expedition: September 1979

‘‘. . . at night there always seemed to be 5–20 or more sharks around our boat (as observed from the deck and on one occasion from a cage lowered beneath the boat).
Most of the sharks are relatively small (1–1.5 m T.L.). . . . Sharks are rarely seen away from the Rocks during the day, but at night considerable numbers swim close to
the surface. We often heard or saw splashing at night that seemed to involve sharks, and it appeared that the sharks were attempting to feed on the flying fishes; . . .’’
(Lubbock and Edwards, 1981)
‘‘During the first two days at the rocks, divers were frequently surrounded by ten to twenty or more C. galapagensis. Subsequently sharks became significantly less
common during daylight hours, although still numerous at night when at least five or six and sometimes up to twenty sharks (presumably both C. falciformis and C.
galapagensis) could be seen around our boat. It was notable that during the day sharks hardly interfered with line fishing activities and were only rarely seen at the
surface. . . . suggest that the shark population may have declined somewhat in recent years; our observations are in agreement with such a conclusion. In this respect
it is perhaps worth noting that the Rocks have recently been subject to occasional visits by Brazilian fishing boats; one of these recorded capturing two tons of sharks
by accident in one evening while fishing for commercial species (P. Conolly, pers. comm.).’’
‘‘The carcharhinid population is still relatively dense, although there is some evidence of a decline in recent years perhaps as a result of increased fishing activity.’’
(Edwards and Lubbock, 1982)
Segredos Submersos Expedition: November 1993
‘‘All dives we made were magnificent, but the lack of sharks was noticeable.’’
‘‘We carried luparas (sticks with explosive tips) and electric end sticks in order to repel the sharks we expected to find, . . . truly, we never had to use these.’’
‘‘Yet over the plateau, I saw two sharks swimming in circles . . . they seemed to be in courtship behavior and were two meters length.’’
‘‘. . . on afternoon we dove at the same plateau that we sought these two sharks in the morning . . . we went to 33 m depth and nothing of sharks.’’
‘‘. . . as we did not find the multitude of sharks we expected, we give up to descend the cage, even the luparas and the electric sticks were left on board during the
subsequent dives.’’ (Meurer, 2004)a
a
Translated from the original German (Speiss, 1928) and Portuguese (Meurer, 2004) respectively.

Table 2
Sighting records from 1799 to 2009 of Carcharhinus sharks at St. Paul’s Rocks. Estimations of the magnitude of population decline follow McPherson and Myers (2009).
(NB: A magnitude of decline in abundance of 20 indicates a 20-fold decline i.e. population at one 20th, and is thus equivalent to a 95% decline.)

Date Sighting Sampling Estimated magnitude of decline References

effort (days) (median and 95% CI)
1799, December Yes 0.2 5.2 (1.3–31.2) Delano (1817)
1832, February Yes 0.4 5.4 (1.3–22.1) Fitzroy (1839) and Darwin (1845)
1839, November Yes 0.75 6.7 (1.4–31.1) Ross (1847)
1873, August Yes 2 7.6 (1.5–37.6) Campbell (1876) and Moseley (1892)
1902, December Yes 0.8 7.6 (1.6–33.2) Brown and Murdoch (1923), Wilton (1908) and Nicoll (1908)
1905, December Yes 0.5 9.3 (1.7–50.1) Nicoll (1904, 1908)
1921, November Yes 0.5 10.3 (1.8–58.5) Wild (1923a,b)
1925, May Yes 0.5 14.1 (2.1–96.4) Speiss (1928)
1948 Yes 0.5 19.8 (2.2–174.1) Pettersson (1954)
1955, March Yes 0.25 25.5 (2.3–280.8) Tressler et al. (1956)
1963, March Yes 0.3 31.4 (2.2–437.8) Masch (1966)
1966, April Yes 1.25 39.0 (2.1–707.8) Bowen (1966)
1971, May Yes 0.12 51.2 (1.9–1357.4) Smith et al. (1974)
1976 Yes 3 64.1 (1.6–2602.2) L. Davidson (pers. comm.)
1979, September Yes 8 78.7 (1.3–4741.5) Lubbock and Edwards (1981) and Edwards and Lubbock (1982)
1993, November Yes 7 NA Meurer (2004) and E. Meurer (pers. comm.)
1998, August No 10 NA C.R. Rocha (pers. comm.)
1999, April No 20 NA L.A. Rocha (pers. comm.)
1999, November No 10 NA O.J. Luiz (pers. observation)
2000, April No 15 NA C.A. Rangel (pers. comm.)
2000, August No 20 NA B.M. Feitoza (pers. comm.)
2001, August No 15 NA B.M. Feitoza (pers. comm.)
2002, September No 15 NA C.A. Rangel (pers. comm.)
2006, January No 15 NA O.J. Luiz (pers. observation)
2007, April No 15 NA B.M. Feitoza (pers. comm.)
2007, May No 15 NA B.M. Feitoza (pers. comm.)
2008, February No 3 NA B.M. Feitoza (pers. comm.)
2008, April No 15 NA C.E. Ferreira (pers. comm.)
2009, June No 15 NA C.E. Ferreira (pers. comm.)

to collecting effort), or congeners that may have become extinct range, and/or congeners may survive despite similar threatening
through similar threatening processes, and (d) recent surveys have processes (Butchart et al., 2006). By explicitly laying out and clas-
been apparently adequate given the species’ ease of detection, but sifying evidence for and against local extinction under this frame-
have failed to detect the species. Evidence against extinction is work (see Table 3), we then make the judgment of species
considered if: (a) recent field work has been inadequate (any sur- extinction based on qualitative historical observations as objec-
veys have been insufficiently intensive/extensive, or inappropri- tively as possible.
ately timed; or the species’ range is inaccessible, remote, unsafe
or inadequately known); (b) the species is difficult to detect (it is
cryptic, inconspicuous, nocturnal, nomadic, identification is diffi- 3. Results
cult, or the species occurs at low densities); (c) there have been
reasonably convincing recent local reports or unconfirmed sight- Excerpts from historical observations of sharks at St. Paul’s
ings; and (d) suitable habitat remains within the species’ known Rocks are presented in Table 1. Travelers and naturalists from
2878 O.J. Luiz, A.J. Edwards / Biological Conservation 144 (2011) 2873–2881

Fig. 2. Plot of the temporal distribution of sightings of reef sharks (Carcharhinus spp.) at St. Paul’s Rocks and estimates of declines for any given reference year between 1799
and 2010. Grey circles denote sightings where a reduction in the population size of sharks was noted by the observers. The dashed line marks the year when commercial
fishing at the Archipelago was first documented. The asterisk marks the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval for the local extinction time. The open circle indicates the
timing of the last sighting of reef sharks at St. Paul’s Rocks and does not indicate magnitude of decline.

the 18th to the 20th centuries frequently quoted the abundance The former abundance of sharks is also illustrated by descrip-
of sharks in the St. Paul’s Rocks as ‘innumerable’, ‘countless’ or tions of fishing practices made by the crew of early expeditions.
‘so numerous’. Among the expressions that they used to commu- The quantity and the voracity of sharks were considered a nuisance
nicate what they had seen were variations of ‘water swarms to fishing because they usually seized and took away fish that were
with sharks’ or ‘sharks swarmed in incredible numbers’ (Delano, hooked (Fitzroy, 1839; Wild, 1923b; Tressler et al., 1956; Smith
1817; Ross, 1847; Wilton, 1908; Nicoll, 1904, 1908; Wild, 1923b; et al., 1974), broke gear, tangled lines, and snatched bait and hooks
Tressler et al., 1956). Several accounts considered landing on the (Delano, 1817; Moseley, 1892; Wilton, 1908; Wild, 1923b). Sharks
islets as a dangerous endeavor because the abundance of sharks were considered an unwelcome catch, being less valuable as food
(Ross, 1847; Nicoll, 1908; Brown and Murdoch, 1923; Wild, than some bony fish species. Nevertheless, sharks were constantly
1923a; Pettersson, 1954). The overall impression is that sharks caught due to the fervor with which they took bait and hooked fish,
occurred there at unusually high densities, similar to those re- making it almost impossible to catch other fish (Campbell, 1876;
marked on by 18th and 19th century travelers at remote Pacific Moseley, 1892; Nicoll, 1908).
locations such as Cocos Island, Revillagigedo Islands and Palmyra Visitors in the second half of the 20th century were the first to
atoll (Colnett, 1798; Fanning, 1833; summarized in Roberts note a decline in shark numbers. Two geological expeditions in
(2007)). 1963 and 1966 commented on the apparent decline in shark

Table 3
Evaluation of the qualitative evidence for and against local extinction using the framework of Butchart et al. (2006).

Observational data
Types of evidence for extinction
 For species with recent last records, the decline has been well Yes. Observations made during expeditions in the latter part of the 20th century
documented specifically commented on the decrease in shark numbers compared to early accounts
 Severe threatening processes are known to have occurred Yes. Records of commercial fishing start a few years before the reduction in shark
abundance was noticed for the first time. Commercial fishing efforts then intensified
while carcharhinid sharks became less common, and eventually ceased to be recorded at
the Rocks
 The species possesses attributes known to predispose taxa to extinction Yes. The vulnerability of sharks to over-exploitation is well-known and characterized by
life-history attributes like slow growth, late attainment of sexual maturity, long life spans
and low fecundity (Stevens et al., 2000)
 Recent surveys have been apparently adequate given the species’ ease of Yes. Recent expeditions, made after 1993, have involved over six times the total sampling
detection, but have failed to detect the species effort between 1799 and 1993 (26 days)
Types of evidence against extinction
 Recent field work has been inadequate No. A series of expeditions whose primary objective was to study the demersal fish fauna
were carried out during the last decade
 The species is difficult to detect No. The Galapagos shark is large and conspicuous. It lives close to shore and has a small
range (Meyer et al. 2010), making it easily detectable by SCUBA divers. Early expeditions
generally detected the sharks within minutes of arrival
 There have been reasonably convincing recent local reports or No
unconfirmed sightings
 Suitable habitat remains within the species’ known range, and/or Appropriate habitat remains for C. galapagensis but it is unlikely that individuals remain
allospecies or congeners may survive despite similar threatening undetectable due to the small shallow water area (0.5 km2 <60 m deep) of the
processes Archipelago, which allowed it to be thoroughly surveyed during recent expeditions
The epipelagic congener C. falciformis was also observed to live at the Rocks as evidenced
by specimens collected (Edwards and Lubbock, 1982), but since 1993, no carcharhinid has
been recorded during underwater field surveys. The continued catch of occasional C.
falciformis on longlines of boats fishing nearby the Archipelago are probably due to open
sea strays
 O.J. Luiz, A.J. Edwards / Biological Conservation 144 (2011) 2873–2881 2879

numbers since the 19th century, noting that the sharks did not Fishing is the factor that stands out as the agent of Carcharhinus
interfere with fishing (Masch, 1966; Bowen, 1966). Members of spp. extinction at St. Paul’s Rocks. The decline in the number of
the Cambridge Expedition to St. Paul’s Rocks in 1979 also com- sharks coincided with the commencement of commercial fishing,
mented on the apparent decrease in the shark population (Lubbock after a period of more than 150 years when sharks were docu-
and Edwards, 1981; Edwards and Lubbock, 1982), but still reported mented to be very abundant (Fig. 2). This is not surprising given
10–20 C. galapagensis surrounding them during dives. the vulnerability of sharks to exploitation because of their life-his-
The last confirmed sighting of Carcharhinidae sharks at the tory strategy, characterized by large size, long life-span, low rate of
Archipelago was made in 1993, when two individuals were video reproduction, late maturity, slow growth, and low natural mortal-
recorded underwater (Meurer, 2004; E. Meurer, pers. comm.). In ity (Stevens et al., 2000). Also, they are positively attracted to cer-
the period between 1998 and 2009, 13 expeditions primarily fo- tain types of fishing gear (baited hooks). During roughly the same
cused on studying the demersal fish assemblage failed to detect period, populations of sharks in much larger geographic areas, like
any Carcharhinus spp. despite approximately 500 h of underwater the Gulf of Mexico (Baum and Myers, 2004) and the Mediterranean
fieldwork over 183 days (compared to the 16 records from previ- Sea (Ferretti et al., 2008), were reduced by more than 90% due to
ous visits which collectively total only 26 days). commercial fishing. Sharks are vulnerable to even light fishing
Analysis of the sighting record (Table 2) using Eqs. (1) and (2) pressure by artisanal and subsistence fishers on remote islands
indicate the upper bound of the 95% CI for extinction time occur- (DeMartini et al., 2008). Clearly, a continuous and spatially concen-
ring at 1998 (Fig. 2). Both statistical methods suggest that for the trated fishing effort in such a small area as St. Paul’s Rocks is
relatively large and obvious carcharhinid sharks at this small iso- incompatible with shark survival.
lated locality, only about 6 days of dedicated sampling effort would The ecological effects of removal of sharks and other top-preda-
be needed to indicate local extinction. The analysis of population tors have important consequences for the stability of marine eco-
trends shows relative stability followed by sharp decline in abun- systems (Myers et al., 2007; Heithaus et al., 2008; Ferretti et al.,
dance that coincides with the commencement of fishing (Fig. 2). 2010). A well-known phenomenon is the top-down trophic cas-
The qualitative analysis of the historical records and recent sur- cade that may occur after the release of prey from predatory con-
veys under the framework proposed by Butchart et al. (2006) give trol (reviews in Heithaus et al. (2008) and Baum and Worm
support for the four main types of evidence for local extinction of C. (2009)). Due to the lack of quantitative data on past densities of
galapagensis and C. falciformis at the Archipelago (Table 3). On the reef fish at St. Paul’s Rocks, it is difficult to infer whether such cas-
other hand, there is no support for the four types of evidence cade effects have occurred there.
against extinction except in the case of C. falciformis, which is occa- However, possible evidence of trophic cascades are brought to
sionally caught by fishing boats nearby although no longer seems light from the assessment of Lubbock and Edwards (1981), that
to frequent the reefs of St. Paul’s Rocks. was made in a period when the sharks were declining, thought still
very common. In 1979, they found that the moray eel Muraena
pavonina was moderately common, usually found inside holes, cre-
vices and occasionally in macro-algae beds (Lubbock and Edwards,
4. Discussion 1981). Today, M. pavonina is one of the most abundant species
there (Ferreira et al., 2009) and, uncharacteristically for moray eels,
The review of historical accounts from St. Paul’s Rocks shows regularly observed swimming away from shelter during daylight
that carcharhinid sharks were abundant there until approximately (Luiz, 2005). Even if populations of meso-predators, such as
50 years ago. The occurrence of such large numbers of sharks carangids and moray eels, have not changed significantly, given
around oceanic islands is not an uncommon feature in the reports the previous high abundance of sharks it is likely that now they
of the 18th and 19th century’s ocean explorers (Sáenz-Arroyo et al., spend more time foraging and/or forage over larger areas than be-
2006; Roberts, 2007; see Supplemental data in Sandin et al. (2008) fore, when the risk of predation by sharks was higher (i.e. risk ef-
and Ward-Paige et al. (2010)). In fact, it appears to have been nor- fects; Heithaus et al., 2008; Madin et al., 2010). This raises
mal. Today, only a few places in the world, such as the northwest- concerns about the conservation status of the small fishes that
ern Hawaiian Islands (Friedlander and DeMartini, 2002), Kingman meso-predators prey upon, particularly endemic species, which
and Palmyra Atolls in the northern Line Islands (Sandin et al., may be threatened with global extinction. Four endemic species
2008), and some no-entry zones in the Great Barrier Reef (Robbins of fish are known from the Archipelago (Lubbock and Edwards,
et al., 2006), have shark densities that approach those described in 1980, 1981) and at least two other endemic species are awaiting
historic accounts. These places can provide the best baselines we formal description, from which nothing is known about their pop-
have for estimating ecological changes in areas where top preda- ulation dynamics and vulnerability to human impacts. The small
tors have been depleted. endemic basslet Anthias salmopunctatus, for instance, was common
Our analyses of the data from recent and historical observations on rocky faces below 30 m depth in 1979 and usually found in
provide strong evidence that the once extremely abundant carcha- small shoals (Lubbock and Edwards, 1981) but is now extremely
rhinid reef sharks (especially C. galapagensis) are now extinct in the rare (Luiz et al., 2007).
remote Archipelago of Saint Paul’s Rocks. Shark populations world- Because most detailed scientific studies in the sea have been
wide have been depleted by overfishing (Worm and Myers, 2003; carried out after humans significantly modified it (Jackson et al.,
Robbins et al., 2006; Dulvy et al., 2008), but apparently persist at 2001), it is often necessary to use historical data to reconstruct
high abundance at a few remote and uninhabited islands and atolls the past abundances of marine organisms (Lotze and Worm,
(Stevenson et al., 2007; DeMartini et al., 2008; Sandin et al., 2008). 2009; McClenachan, 2009). A recent review has found that the
However, our results support the claim of Anderson et al. (1998) application of historical contrasts is responsible for the detection
(see also Graham et al., 2010) that a locality, even if isolated and of 80% of all known extinctions in the sea (Dulvy et al., 2003). How-
uninhabited, is not necessarily safe from overfishing. In those local- ever, despite its value, historical data are often descriptive and
ities where shark density is regarded as relatively undisturbed, opportunistic, challenging our capacity to apply quantitative anal-
protection from illegal fishing is well enforced. Thus, a combina- yses to them (Roberts and Solow, 2003; Monte-Luna et al., 2009).
tion of isolation, low human density, and effective protection Thus, whenever possible, historical data should be analyzed by a
seems to be necessary to maintain shark populations in their nat- set of different methods in order to provide sound inferences of
ural state. species declines (Roberts and Kirchener, 2006). This is especially
2880 O.J. Luiz, A.J. Edwards / Biological Conservation 144 (2011) 2873–2881

important when inferring extinctions because to consider a species DeMartini, E.E., Friedlander, A.M., Sandin, S.A., Sala, E., 2008. Differences in fish-
assemblage structure between fished and unfished atolls in the northern Line
as extinct prematurely could undermine potential last-minute con-
Islands, central Pacific. Marine Ecology Progress Series 365, 199–215.
servation action and contribute to its demise (Collar, 1998). It Dulvy, N.K., Sadovy, Y., Reynolds, J.D., 2003. Extinction vulnerability in marine
could also increase the danger of conservationists ‘crying wolf’ populations. Fish and Fisheries 4, 25–64.
too often, reducing public confidence in the accuracy of extinction Dulvy, N.K., Baum, J.K., Clarke, S., Compagno, L.J.V., Cortés, E., Domingo, A., Fordham,
S., Fowler, S., Francis, M.P., Gibson, G., Martinez, J., Musick, J.A., Soldo, A.,
designation, and be used to question the integrity of conservation Stevens, J.D., Valenti, S., 2008. You can swim but you can’t hide: the global
practices (Roberts and Kirchener, 2006; Monte-Luna et al., 2007). status and conservation of oceanic pelagic sharks and rays. Aquatic
On the other hand, the failure to detect real extinctions can hinder Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems 18, 459–482.
Edwards, A.J., 1985. Saint Paul’s Rocks: a bibliographical review of the natural
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