MODULE 1

YEAR 2
PROBABILITY AND
SECTION A
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
Hemanth (231fa23006)
DEPARTMENT – ACSE-DS
TARGET 3
Hari Sai Teja (231fa23017)
BATCH 4
Madhuri (231fa23035)
Akshaya (231fa23040)
Shanmukhi (231fa23073)

Given questions : 3,5,6,10,14 10 40

= 78 + 78
3) a) Explain multiplication law of
probability when the events are
dependent. 50
Ans : = 78 = 0.6410
If A and B are independent then c) From a group of 5 Indians, 8
P(A∩B) = P(A) × P(B) Canadians and 6 Irish, a sub-
committee of four people is selected
If A and B are dependent then it is by lots. Find the probability that the
represented as P(A∩B) = P(A) × sub-committee will consist of
P(B/A) or P(B∩A) = P(B) × P(A/B)
(i) 2 Indians and 2 Canadians
it is called conditional probability.
(ii) 2 Indian, 1 Canadian and 1 Irish
b) Out of 13 applicants for a job,
there are 8 men and 5 women. It is (iii) 4 Irish.
desired to select 2 persons for the job. Ans :
What can be the probability that at
least one of the selected persons will Given that
be a woman? Indians =5
Ans : Canadians = 8
Given that Irish = 6
men =8 Total = 19
women =5 i) P(2 Indians and 2 Canadians) =
Total =13 5C 2 × 8 c 2
no.of ways of selecting 2 people 19C 4 =
=13 c 2 10× 28
= 0.0722
3876
P(atleast one should be women)=
5C 2 5C 1 × 8 c 1 ii) P(2 Indian, 1 Canadian and 1
+ Irish) =
13C 2 13 C2

5C 2 × 8 c 1 × 6 C1 10× 8 ×6 480
10 5× 8 = = =
= 78 + 78 1 9 C4 3876 3876
0.1238
 iii) P(4 Irish) = These variables are "continuous"
because there are no gaps between the
possible values.
6 C4 15
b) What is distribution function of
19 C 4 = 3876 = a random variable. Discuss it for
0.0039 discrete and continuous random
5) a) What are random variables? variable.
Explain discrete and continuous Ans :
random variable.
The distribution function of a
Ans : random variable, also known as the
Random variables are cumulative distribution function (CDF),
mathematical concepts used to represent describes the probability that the
and analyze uncertain outcomes in variable takes on a value less than or
probability theory. They're essentially equal to a specific value.
variables whose possible values are For both discrete and continuous
determined by chance. random variables, the CDF is defined
There are two main types of random as:
variables: discrete and continuous. F(x) = P(X ≤ x)
Discrete Random where F(x) is the CDF, X is the
Variables : Discrete random variables random variable, and x is a specific
can only take on a countable number of value.
distinct, separate values.
Discrete Random Variables:
Think of it like flipping a coin - you
can only get heads or tails, two distinct For discrete random variables, the
outcomes. CDF is a step function that jumps at
each possible value of the variable.
Think of it like a staircase. The CDF
Other examples include:- Rolling a starts at 0 and increases by the
die (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6) probability of each discrete value as x
increases.
-Number
of students in a class (1, 2, 3, ...) Example:
These variables are "discrete" Suppose X is the number of heads
because there are gaps between the in a single coin flip (0 or 1).
possible values. The CDF would be: F(x) = 0 for x <
Continuous Random 0F(x) = 0.5 for 0 ≤ x < 1F(x) = 1 for x ≥
Variables : Continuous random 1
variables, on the other hand, can take on Continuous Random Variables:
any value within a certain range or
interval. For continuous random
variables, the CDF is a continuous
Think of it like measuring the height function that smoothly increases as x
of a person - you can get any value increases. The CDF starts at 0 and
within a range (e.g., 150.5 cm, 162.8 increases to 1 as x approaches infinity.
cm, etc.) Other examples include:-
Temperature (any value between -20°C Example:
and 50°C) Suppose X is the height of a
- Time it person (a continuous variable).
takes to complete a task (any value The CDF might look like:
between 0 and 100 minutes)
F(x) = 0 for x < 150 (nobody is
shorter than 150 cm)
 F(x) = 0.2 for x = 160 (20% of Conditional probability is the
people are shorter than 160 cm) probability of an event occurring given that
F(x) = 0.5 for x = 170 (50% of another event has already occurred which
people are shorter than 170 cm) is the probability of event A happening
given that event B has already occurred.
F(x) = 0.8 for x = 180 (80% of This means that the probability of A
people are shorter than 180 cm) happening given B is equal to the
F(x) = 1 for x ≥ 200 (almost nobody probability of both A and B happening,
is taller than 200 cm) divided by the probability B.
c) A random variable X has the Bayes' Theorem:
following probability function Bayes' Theorem is a mathematical
formula used to determine conditional
probability. It relates the conditional and
(i) Evaluate K marginal probabilities of random events.
(ii) Evaluate P(X < 6), P( X <=6 ) and P(0 < Where:
X < 5).
• P(A∣B) is the posterior probability: the
1 probability of event A occurring given that
(iii) If P( X <=k) > 2 , find the minimum B is true.
value of ‘k’ and determine the
distribution function of X • P(B∣A) is the likelihood: the probability of
B given A.
6th Question:
• P(A) probability: the probability of A
a) Explain the conditional probability. occurring before considering B.
b) What do you understand by Bayes • P(B)is the marginal likelihood: the total
theorem? What are its applications? probability of B occurring under all
c) During a cruel dictator’s administration, scenarios.
many people were killed by his military 10.
people.
a) Obtain the mean and variance of
d) After the dictator’s era, in one of his rectangular distribution.
killing-fields a team of forensic
investigators found a b)Buses arrive at a specified stop at 15-
minute intervals starting at 7 a.m. That is,
corpse that was frozen under a heap of they arrive at 7, 7.15, 7.30, 7.45 a.m. and
ice. During autopsy, the forensic people so on. If a passenger arrives at the stop at a
witnessed time that is uniformly distributed between
that the victim was killed by three 7 and 7.30 a.m., find the probability that he
modes of execution viz hanged up by waits
gallows, supplied (i) Less than 5 minutes for a bus
venom injection and stabbed with a (ii) More than 10 minutes for a bus.
knife. From the scene of crime, they found
some c) The savings bank account of a
customer showed an average balance of Rs.
possibilities of the cause of death which 150 and a S.D. of Rs. 50. Assuming that
would be 10% due to venom injection, the account balances are normally
12% due to distributed
stabbing with a knife and 16% due to (i) What percentage of account is over Rs.
hanged in the gallows. They want to find 200?
the time of
(ii) What percentage of account is between Rs.
death for this, they have to calculate the 120 and Rs. 170?
cause of death first.Can you help them?
(iii) What percentage of account is less than Rs.
Conditional Probability: 75?
 (iv) What percentage of account is(xxxiii) Let's calculate the probability that the
more than Rs. 75? passenger waits:
(v) The rectangular distribution, also known as (xxxiv) Less than 5 minutes:
the uniform distribution, has a probability (xxxv) The passenger will wait less than 5 minutes
density function (PDF) given by: if they arrive between:-
(vi) f(x) = 1 / (b - a) for a ≤ x ≤ b where a and b (xxxvi) 7:10 and 7:15 (5 minutes before the 7:15
are the lower and upper bounds of the bus)- 7:25 and 7:30 (5 minutes before the
distribution. 7:30 bus)
(vii) Mean: (xxxvii) Probability = (5 + 5) / 30 = 10 / 30 = 1/3
(viii) The mean (μ) of the rectangular(xxxviii) More than 10 minutes:
distribution is:
(xxxix) The passenger will wait more than 10
(ix) μ = (a + b) / 2 minutes if they arrive between:- 7:00 and
(x) Variance: 7:05 (more than 10 minutes before the 7:15
(xi) The variance (σ²) of the rectangular bus)-
distribution is: (xl) 7:15 and 7:20 (more than 10 minutes
(xii) σ² = (b - a)² / 12 before the 7:30 bus)

(xiii) These formulas are derived from the (xli) Probability = (5 + 5) / 30 = 10 / 30 = 1/3
definitions of mean and variance for (xlii) However, we need to consider the entire
continuous random variables. 30-minute interval:
(xiv) Derivations: (xliii) Probability = (15) / 30 = ½
(xv) Mean : (xliv) So, the probabilities are:-
(xvi) μ = ∫[a, b] x * f(x) (xlv) Less than 5 minutes: 1/3 or approximately
(xvii) dx= ∫[a, b] x / (b - a) 0.3333-

(xviii) dx= (1 / (b - a)) * ∫[a, b] x (xlvi) More than 10 minutes: 1/2 or

approximately 0.5
(xix) dx= (1 / (b - a)) * (b² - a²) / 2
(xlvii) Keep in mind that these probabilities
(xx) = (a + b) / 2 assume the passenger arrives uniformly
(xxi) Variance: between 7 and 7:30 a.m.
(xxii) σ² = ∫[a, b] (x - μ)² * f(x) Given:- Mean (μ) = Rs. 150- Standard
Deviation (σ) = Rs. 50- Normal
(xxiii) dx= ∫[a, b] (x - (a + b) / 2)² / (b - a) Distribution
(xxiv) dx= (1 / (b - a)) * ∫[a, b] (x - (a + b) / 2)² We'll use z-scores and a standard
(xxv) dx= (1 / (b - a)) * (b - a)³ / 12 normal distribution table (z-table) to find
the probabilities.
(xxvi) = (b - a)² / 12
1. Percentage of accounts over Rs. 200:z = (X
(xxvii) Let's break this problem down step by step. - μ) / σ= (200 - 150) / 50= 1Using the z-
(xxviii) Uniform Distribution: table, the area to the right of z = 1 is
approximately 0.1587.So, approximately
(xxix) The passenger arrives at a time uniformly 15.87% of accounts have balances over Rs.
distributed between 7 and 7:30 a.m., which 200.
is a 30-minute interval.
2. Percentage of accounts between Rs. 120
(xxx) Probability Density Function (PDF): and Rs. 170:z1 = (120 - 150) / 50 = -0.6z2
(xxxi) f(x) = 1 / 30 for 0 ≤ x ≤ 30where x is the = (170 - 150) / 50 = 0.4Using the z-table:
time (in minutes) after 7 a.m.Bus Arrival 3. Area between z = -0.6 and z = 0.4 = Φ(0.4)
Times:7:00, 7:15, 7:30Waiting - Φ(-0.6)≈ 0.6554 - 0.2743≈ 0.3811
(xxxii) Time: 4. So, approximately 38.11% of accounts
have balances between Rs. 120 and Rs.
170.3. Percentage of accounts less than Rs. P(X=k) = (e^(-λ) *
75:z = (75 - 150) / 50 = -1.5 (λ^k)) / k!
Using the z-table, the area to the left where: - X is the number of occurrences
of z = -1.5 is approximately 0.0668.So, - λ (lambda) is the average rate
approximately 6.68% of accounts have of occurrences (λ > 0)
balances less than Rs. 75.4. Percentage of
accounts more than Rs. 75:This is the - k is the number of
complement of the previous probability:1 - occurrences (0, 1, 2, ...)
0.0668 ≈ 0.9332 Limiting Case
So, approximately 93.32% of accounts Now, let's explore how the Poisson
have balances more than Rs. 75.To distribution can be seen as a limiting case
summarize:- Over Rs. 200: 15.87%- of the Binomial distribution:
Between Rs. 120 and Rs. 170: 38.11%-
Less than Rs. 75: 6.68%- More 1. Large n: Consider a
than Rs. 75: 93.32% Binomial distribution with a large number
of trials (n → ∞).
14) Explain in details the concept that
the Poisson distribution is a limiting case 2. Small p: At the
of Binomial distribution. same time, let the probability of success (p)
approach 0, but not too quickly.
Ans :
3. Constant np: Ensure
The Poisson distribution and that the product np remains constant, i.e.,
Binomial distribution are both discrete np = λ (a fixed value).
probability distributions, but they have
different properties and applications. Under these conditions, the Binomial
However, the Poisson distribution can be distribution converges to the Poisson
seen as a limiting case of the Binomial distribution:
distribution under certain conditions. P(X=k) ≈ (e^(-λ) * (λ^k)) / k!
Binomial Distribution: In other words, as n increases and p
The Binomial distribution models the decreases, the Binomial distribution
number of successes in n independent approaches the Poisson distribution with
trials, each with a probability p of success. parameter λ = np.
The probability mass function (PMF) is:
P(X=k) = (nCk) * (p^k) *
(q^(n-k))
where: - X is the number of successes
- n is the number of trials
- k is the number of successes
(0 ≤ k ≤ n)
- p is the probability of success
(0 < p < 1)
- q is the probability of failure
(q = 1-p)
- nCk is the binomial
coefficient (number of combinations of n
items taken k at a time)
Poisson Distribution:
The Poisson distribution models
the number of occurrences of an event in a
fixed interval, where the average rate of
occurrences is known. The PMF is: