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SDM 1

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13 views12 pages

SDM 1

Uploaded by

Gautam Kumar
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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STATISTICAL DECISION

MODELLING:(IM60207/IM61007)
L-T-P : 3-0-0 Credit : 3
Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering
Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur

 Instructor: Dr J K Jha
 Office: 210
 E-mail: [email protected]
 Phone: 83748 (Off)
 Class meetings:
Timings – Monday (11.00 – 11.55 AM)
Tuesday (8.00 AM – 9.55 AM)

Venue – C-I (212)


1
BACKGROUND, SCOPE & OBJECTIVE

This course is an elective for B.Tech, Dual, and M.Tech Students. Statistical Decision
Modelling is a name to describe a set of statistical tools and techniques that have been
widely used in business to take effective decisions under uncertainty.

Scope:
The course broadly covers:
o Exploratory Data Analysis
o Sampling and Estimation
o Hypothesis Testing
o Correlation and Regression
o Decision Analysis

Course Objective:
• To understand the overall Statistical concepts, principles and methods for making sound business
decisions.
• To understand and apply theoretical knowledge in integrated fundamental areas of business
• To learn how to efficiently draw conclusions about large populations based only on information
obtained from samples
2
TEXT BOOK AND REFERENCES
• Larson R J and Marx M L, An introduction to mathematical
statistics and its applications.
• Aczel A D and Sounderpandian J, Complete Business Statistics
• Montgomery and Hines, Probability and Statistics for Engineers,
John Wiley and Sons.

3
EVALUATION SCHEME

Component Weight

Attendance 5

Assignment 5
Two Tests 10
Mid Sem 30
End Sem 50
Total 100

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Statistical Decision Modelling

• Statistical decision modelling is concerned


with making decisions in the presence of
statistical knowledge which sheds light on
some of the uncertainties involved in the
decision process.

5
What is Statistics?
Statistics is the science of data/information. It involves collecting, evaluating (classifying,
summarizing, organizing, analyzing) and interpreting numerical information.

1. Collecting Data Data Why?

e.g., Survey Analysis


2. Presenting Data
e.g., Charts & Tables
Decision-
3. Characterizing Data
Making
e.g., Average

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© 1984-1994 T/Maker Co.
Statistics: Two Processes

Describing sets of data

and

Drawing conclusions (making estimates,


decisions, predictions, etc. about sets of data
based on sampling)

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Statistical Methods
used to present, describe, and understand variability

Statistical
Methods

Descriptive Inferential
Statistics Statistics

collection, presentation, and making decisions and drawing


description of sample data. conclusions about populations

8
Descriptive Statistics
all the various techniques for summarizing and displaying data

1. Involves $
50
• Collecting Data
• Presenting Data 25
• Characterizing Data
0
2. Purpose Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
• Describe Data
X = 30.5 s2 = 113

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Descriptive Statistics
• Descriptive statistics utilizes numerical and graphical methods
to look for patterns in a data set, to summarize the
information revealed in a data set and to present that
information in a convenient form.

10
Inferential Statistics
1. Involves
• Estimation Population?

• Hypothesis
Testing

2. Purpose
• Make decisions about
population characteristics

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Inferential statistics
• Inferential statistics utilizes sample data to make estimates,
decisions, predictions or other generalizations about a larger set
of data.
• Goal: Make statements regarding a population (or true state of
nature) based on observations from a sample.

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