GEOG 146 NOTES

1. The Poisson Distribution

The Poisson Distribution was developed by the French mathematician Simeon Denis Poisson in
1837.
Properties of a Poisson Experiment
1. The experiment results in outcomes that can be classified as successes or failures.
2. The average number of successes (μ) that occurs in a specified region is known.
3. The probability that a success will occur is proportional to the size of the region.
4. The probability that a success will occur in an extremely small region is virtually zero.
Note that the specified region could take many forms. For instance, it could be a length, an
area, a volume, a period of time, etc.

Notations
▪ e: A constant equal to approximately 2.71828. (Actually, e is the base of the natural logarithm
system.)
▪ λ : The mean number of successes that occur in a specified region.
▪ X= r : The actual number of successes that occur in a specified region.
▪ P(x= r; λ): The Poisson probability that exactly x successes occur in a Poisson experiment,
when the mean number of successes is λ.

Given the mean number of successes (λ) that occur in a specified region, we can compute the
Poisson probability based on the following formula:

Applications
▪ the number of deaths by horse kicking in the Prussian army (first application)
▪ birth defects and genetic mutations
▪ rare diseases (like Leukemia, but not AIDS because it is infectious and so not independent) -
especially in legal cases
▪ car accidents
▪ traffic flow and ideal gap distance
▪ number of typing errors on a page
▪ hairs found in McDonald's hamburgers
▪ spread of an endangered animal in Africa
▪ failure of a machine in one month

Using the Poisson distribution write down the formulae for P(X = 0), P(X = 1), P(X = 2), P(X = 6),
noting that 0! = 1.

Example 1:
▪ Suppose a certain city has a variable number of suicides per month but the mean is 3 suicides
per month. A mental health scientist wants to study this phenomenon and decides to use
poission distribution to model the distribution of suicide data.
The sampling unit is one month; r is the number of suicides in that month, and λ = 3. Then, to
compute the probabilities of different numbers of suicides in any specific month, the mental
health sciences will use the formula.
Poisson probability Table (x is r – link up with λ)
For r = 0, 1, 2, .....
i.e. the probability that there will be 0 suicides in a randomly chosen month is

▪Since (3)0 = 1 and 0! = 1

▪Therefore which can be found in the poisson’s table as 0.0498
▪The probability of exactly one suicide in a randomly chosen month is

= 0.1494
Example 2
▪Suppose that it has been observed that, on average, 180 cars per hour pass a specified point
on a particular road in the morning ‘rush hour’. Due to impending road works it is estimated that
congestion will occur closer to the city centre if more than 5 cars pass the point in any one
minute.
What is the probability of this latter event occurring?
Sol
Let X be the random variable ‘number of cars arriving in any minute’.
▪Calculate the probability that:
a) more than 5 cars arrive in one minute.
▪First we convert the information on the average rate (cars per hour) to obtain a value for λ (cars
per minute). Then we calculate P(X = 0) to P(X = 5) and finally the required probability.
This is best done by noting that,
▪P(more than 5 cars in one minute) = 1 − P(5 cars or less arrive in one minute)
▪Thus P(X >5) = 1 − P(X ≤ 5) = 1− P(X = 0) − P(X = 1) − P(X = 2) − P(X = 3) − P(X = 4) − P(X =
5)
▪Each probability can be calculated by the recurrence relation above, starting from P(X = 0).
▪Calculate the individual probabilities to 5 d.p. and the final number to 4 d.p.

Example 3:
▪Suppose vehicles arrive at a signalised road intersection at an average rate of 360 per hour
and the cycle of the traffic light is set at 40 seconds.
▪In what percentage of cycles will the number of vehicles arriving be:
(a) exactly 5,
(b) less than 5
(c) If, after the lights change to green, there is time to clear only 5 vehicles before the signal
changes to red again, what is the probability that waiting vehicles are not cleared in one cycle?
Exercise
▪If the accident rate at a certain factory is 7.0 per year and this is a poisson process:
a) Find the probability that fewer than 3 accidents occur in a year
b) Find the probability that 3 or more accidents will occur in a year

▪ Ex.2. On an average Friday, a waitress gets no tip from 5 customers. Find the probability that
she will get no tip from 7 customers this Friday.
▪ The waitress averages 5 customers that leave no tip on Fridays: λ = 5.
▪ Ex. 3 During a typical football game, a coach can expect 3.2 injuries. Find the probability that
the team will have at most 1 injury in this game.
▪ A coach can expect 3.2 injuries : λ = 3.2.
▪ Ex. 4. A small life insurance company has determined that on the average it receives 6 death
claims per day. Find the probability that the company receives at least seven death claims on a
randomly selected day.
▪ P(x ≥ 7) = 1 - P(x ≤ 6) = 0.393697
▪ Ex. 5. The number of traffic accidents that occurs on a particular stretch of road during a
month follows a Poisson distribution with a mean of 9.4. Find the probability that less than two
accidents will occur on this stretch of road during a randomly selected month.

Sample Mean and Poisson Distribution

If μ is the average number of successes occurring in a given time interval or region in the Poisson
distribution, then the mean and the variance of the Poisson distribution are both equal to μ.
• E(X) = μ and V(X) = σ2 = μ
Note: In a Poisson distribution, only one parameter, μ is needed to determine the probability of
an event.
EXAMPLE
▪A company makes electric motors. The probability an electric motor is defective is 0.01. What is
the probability that a sample of 300 electric motors will contain exactly 5 defective motors?
Sol
▪The average number of defectives in 300 motors is μ = 0.01 × 300 = 3
▪The probability of getting 5 defectives is:
 2. The Normal Probability Distribution
A random variable is said to have a normal distribution if it has a probability distribution that is
symmetric and bell-shaped see figure below:

This random variable X is said to be normally distributed with mean μ and standard deviation σ
if its probability distribution is given by

A normal distribution is a continuous probability distribution for a random variable x. The graph
of a normal distribution is called the normal curve.

Properties of a Normal Distribution

1. The mean, median, and mode are equal.
2. The normal curve is bell shaped and is symmetric about the mean.
3. The total area under the normal curve is equal to one.
4. The normal curve approaches, but never touches, the x-axis as it extends farther and farther
away from the mean.
5. Between μ-δ and μ+δ (in the center of the curve) the graph curves downward. The points at
which the curve changes from curving upward to curving downward are called inflection points.

The two parameters, μ and δ completely determine the shape of the normal curve.
• The mean gives the location of the line of symmetry, and the standard deviation describes
how much the data are spread out.
Notice that curve A and curve B above have the same mean, and curve B and curve C have the
same standard deviation.

The Standard Normal Distribution

▪ The normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1 is called the standard
normal distribution.
If the behaviour of a continuous random variable X is described by the distribution N(μ, σ2) then
the behaviour of the random variable

is described by the standard normal distribution N(0, 1).

We call Z the standardized normal variable

Example 1a
▪ If the random variable X is described by the distribution N(45, 0.000625) then what is the
transformation to obtain the standardized normal variable?

Solution
▪ Here, μ = 45 and σ2 = 0.000625 so that σ = 0.025. Hence Z = (X − 45)/0.025 is the required
transformation.

Example 1b
▪ When the random variable X in 1a above takes values between 44.95 and 45.05, between
which values does the random variable Z lie?
Solution
▪ When X = 45.05, Z = 45.05−45/0.025 = 2
▪ When X = 44.95, Z = 44.95−45/0.025 = −2
▪ Hence Z lies between −2 and 2 standard deviations on normal curve.

Exercise
The random variable X follows a normal distribution with mean 1000 and variance 100. When X
takes values between 1005 and 1010, between which values does the standardized normal
variable Z lie?

The Standard Normal Distribution Table (inside values are probabilities)

Probabilities and the standard normal distribution
1. Case 1: both Z values are positive.

Example
▪Find the probability that Z takes values between 1 and 2.
Solution
▪Using the table above
▪P(Z = z2) i.e. P(Z = 2) is 0.4772
▪P(Z = z1) i.e. P(Z = 1) is 0.3413.
▪Hence P(1 < Z < 2) = 0.4772 − 0.3413 = 0.1359
(Remember that with a continuous distribution, P(Z = 1) is meaningless so that P(1 ≤ Z ≤ 2) is
also 0.1359.

2. Case 2: Finding probabilities of the form P(Z > z1)

Example
▪What is the probability that Z > 2?
Solution
▪P(0 < Z < 2) = 0.4772 (from the table)
▪Hence the probability is 0.5 − 0.4772 = 0.0228.
3. Case 3 Probabilities of the form P(Z < z1).
Here the shaded area is the sum of the left-hand half of the total area and a ‘standard’ area

Example
▪What is the probability that Z < 2?
Solution
▪P(Z > 2) = 0.5 + 0.4772 = 0.9772

4. Case 4 probabilities of the form P(−z1 < Z< 0).

This time we make use of the symmetry in the standard normal distribution curve.
Example
What is the probability that −2 < Z < 0?
Solution

The area is equal to that corresponding to P(0 < Z < 2) = 0.4772.

5. Case 5 Probabilities of the form P(−z2 < Z < z1)

Here use the sum property and the symmetry property.
Example
▪What is the probability that −1 < Z < 2?
Solution
▪P(−1 < Z < 0) = P(0 < Z < 1) = 0.3413
▪P(0 < Z < 2) = 0.4772
▪Hence the required probability, P(−1 < Z < 2) is 0.8185.

Application
Example 1
The Natural Coffee Shop morning customer load follows a normal distribution with mean 45 and
standard deviation 8. Determine the probability that the number of customers tomorrow will be
less than 42.
Solution
▪ We first convert the raw score to a z-score.
We have :
42−45
z= = - 0.375
8
▪ Next, we use the table to find the probability. The table gives .3520. (We have rounded the raw
score to -0.38).
▪ We can conclude that ▪ P(x < 42) = .352
▪ That is there is about a 35% chance that there will be fewer than 42 customers tomorrow.

Example 2
A study was done to determine the stress levels that students have while taking exams.
The stress level was found to be normally distributed with a mean stress level of 8.2 and
a standard deviation of 1.34. What is the probability that at your next exam, you will have
a stress level between 9 and 10?

Solution
▪ We want P(9 < x < 10)
▪ We compute the z-scores for each of these

9 − 8.2 10 − 8.2
z9 = = 0.60 z10 = = 1.34
1.34 1.34
Check for probabilities in the table and use and apply case 1: both Z values are positive

Example 3:
Suppose that your wife is pregnant and due in 100 days. Suppose that the probability density
distribution function for having a child is approximately normal with mean 100 and standard
deviation 8. You have a business trip and will return in 85 days and have to go on another
business trip in 107 days.
a) What is the probability that the birth will occur before your second trip?
b) What is the probability that the birth will occur after you return from your first business trip?
c) What is the probability that you will be there for the birth?
d) You are able to cancel your second business trip, and your boss tells you that you can return
home from your first trip so that there is a 99% chance that you will make it back for the birth.
When must you return home?

Solutions

B.
C.

D.
This problem asks us to work out the math backwards. We are given the probability and we
want the raw score. First, we realize that we if there is a 99% chance that we will make it on
time, then there is a 1% chance that we will not. Next, we use the table in reverse. That is, we
seek a z-score that gives .01 as the probability.
▪ We search for the probability value that is closest to .01 and find .0102 and .0099. Since .0099
is the closest to.01, we use this value. The corresponding z-score is -2.33. Now we find the x
that produces this z. We have
x − 100
-2.33 =
8

▪ Multiply both sides by 8 to get -18.64 = x - 100

▪ Add 100 to both sides to get x = 81.36
▪ We must return from our business trip in 81 days.
 3. Using the Normal Distribution to Approximate the Binomial Distribution
Mean and Standard Deviation of a Binomial Distribution
• There are a fixed number of independent trials (n).
• Each trial has 2 outcomes, Success or Failure.
• The probability of success on a single trial is p and the probability of failure is q. p + q = 1
We can find the probability of exactly x successes out of n trials.
Where x = 0 or 1 or 2 ... n.
• X is a discrete random variable representing a count of the number of successes in n trials.

Once you have determined that a distribution is indeed normal, we can compute the mean and
standard deviation of that distribution.
•The formulas are:
•mean = np
•standard deviation = √np(1− p)

i.e.
For Instance
34% of Americans have type A+ blood. If 500 Americans are sampled at random, what is the
probability at least 300 have type A+ blood?
Using techniques of binomial distribution you could calculate the probability that exactly 300,
exactly 301... exactly 500 Americans have A+ blood type and add the probabilities.
Or...you could use the normal curve probabilities to approximate the binomial probabilities.
If np ≥ 5 and nq ≥ 5, the binomial random variable x is approximately normally distributed with

Example
Use the normal approximation to the binomial to find:

Find the mean and standard deviation using binomial distribution formulas.

Adjust the endpoints to correct for continuity P(13.5≤X≤16.5)

Convert each endpoint to a standard score
Example 2:
A survey of Internet users found that 75% favored government regulations of “junk” e-mail. If
200 Internet users are randomly selected, find the probability that fewer than 140 are in favor of
government regulation.
Since np = 150 is greater than 5 and nq = 50 is also greater than5 use the normal
approximation to the binomial

The binomial phrase of “fewer than 140” means 0, 1, 2, 3...139.

Use the correction for continuity to translate to the continuous variable in the interval. Find P (x
< 139.5).
Use the correction for continuity P(x < 139.5).

P( z < -1.71) = 0.0436

The probability that fewer than 140 are in favor of government regulation is approximately
0.0436.
Example 3
Suppose you throw a die 1000 times. What is the probability of having it roll a 6 fewer than 160
times?
Example 4
Each year a squirrel has a 35% chance of surviving the winter. Suppose in patch of land there
are 200 squirrels. What is the probability that between 65 and 80 of these squirrels will survive
the winter?
Example 5
You select a random sample of tires from an ongoing production process in which 8% of all
such tires produced are defective. What is the probability that 150 or fewer tires will be
effective?

Problem 1:
A basketball player has a free throw percentage of 75%. In a single game, the player shoots 12
free throws. Find the mean and standard deviation for this player
Problem 2:
The basketball player from Problem #1 comes from a university where 70% of its female
basketball players get degrees. If there are 20 women on the team find the mean number of
graduates. What is the standard deviation?
Problem 3:
When 1025 people were surveyed and asked if they smoked, 32% said yes. What is the mean
number of smokers in this group?