Final - Probability
Final - Probability
Final - Probability
By : Arpit Choudhary
Exhaustive events
M
O1, O 2 , O 3 ,....... OM is the set of exhaustive events, if U Or = S, the sample space.
r 1
Independent events
Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one does not in any way influence or affect the occurrence
of the other.
Complementary event
If the happening of an event is represented by A (which is a subset of sample space S), then the complement of A is
‘event A not happening‘ and it is denoted by A’ (or A ). [Note that A & A’ are ‘exhaustive’; they are also mutually
exclusive].
Results
1. If A is an event, then
(i) 0 P A 1
(ii) P A P A` 1
2. If A and B are two events such that A B, then P(A) P(B)
3. If A, B are two events, then
(i) P A B P A P B P A B
[In case A and B are mutually exclusive, P A B P A P B
(ii) P[Exactly one of A, B occurs]
P A B` P A`B
P A B P A B
P A P B 2P A B
(iii) P A`B` 1 P A B and
(iv) P A`B` 1 P A B
4. If A, B , C are three events, then
(i) P A B C P A P B P C P A B P A C P B C P A B C
(ii) P(at least two of A, B, C occur) = P A B P A C P B C 2P A B C
Remark If x is the number of cases favorable to an event A, y the number of cases favorable to the event A',
then odds in favour of A are x: y and odds against A are y : x.
Conditional Probability The probability of occurrence of an event A given that B has already occurred is
called the conditional probability of occurrence of A on the condition that B has already occurred. It is
denoted by P .
A
B
Compound Event When two or more events occur together, then a joint occurrence is termed as compound
event.
Theorem of Compound Probability If A and B are two events, then
B
P A B P A P if P A 0
A
A
P B P if P B 0
B
If E1, E2, ………., En are n mutually exclusive and exhaustive events such that P(E6) > 0 for each i and
A is an event, then
A A A
P A P E1 P P E2 P ....... P En P
E1 E2 En
Bayes ‘Theorem If E1, E2, ..., En (n > 1) are n mutually exclusive and exhaustive events such that
P(Ei) > 0 (1 i n) and A is an event, then for 1 i n,
A
P E1 P
P(E/A) = P E1
E
A A A A
P E1 P P E2 P ....... P En P
E2 E2 En
Examples
1. One of the events must happen. Given that the chance of one is three - fourth of the other, the
odds in favour of the other are
(a) 3:4
(b) 4:5
(c) 4:3
(d) 4:7
Answer: (c)
Explanation:
Let the given events be E1 and E2
3
Then P E1 P E2
4
The events E1 and E2 are exhaustive
p(E1E2) = 1
Since E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive
p E1 p E2 1
3 7 4
P E2 P E2 1 P E2 1 P E2
4 4 7
4 3 4 3
P E2 and P E1
7 4 7 7
4
Since P(E2) = odds in favour of E2 are 4: 7 4 i.e., 4:3
7
I. P E1 E2 E1 E2
1
4
II P E1 E2 E1 E2
1
4
Which of the following statement is correct?
(a) Only I
(b) Only II
(c) Both I and II
(d) Neither I nor II
Answer: (a)
Explanation:
Since E1 E2 E1 E2
And E1 E2 E1 E2
P E1 E2 E1 E2 P 0
1
4
Hence, only statement I is correct.
3. A determinant is chosen at random from the set of all determinants of order 2 with elements 0 or 1
only. The probability that value of the determinant chosen is positive, is
5
(a)
16
7
(b)
16
3
(c)
16
9
(d)
16
Answer: (c)
Explanation:
Since each element of the determinant can be placed in two ways 0 or 1,
total number of ways = 24 = 16.
Since value of the determinant is +ve, so we have only 3 cases:
1 0 1 1 1 0
0 1 0
,
1 1
,
1
3
Hence the required probability =
16
4. Aman is known to speak truth 4 out of 5 times. He throws a dice and reports that it is three. The
probability that it is actually six is
3
(a)
8
1
(b)
5
3
(c)
5
4
(d)
9
Answer: (d)
Explanation:.
Let A denotes the event that a three occurs and B the event that the man reports that it is a three.
Then the probability that it is actually a three is given by
A P A B
P
B P B
1 4 4 2
Now P A B
6 5 30 15
P B P A B P B
1 4 5 1 4 5 9 3
6 5 6 5 30 30 30 10
2
Hence, P 15
A 2 10 4
B 3 15 3 9
10
5. Rohan and Sanju throw with one dice for a prize of Rs 121 which is to be won by the player
who throws 1 first. If Rohan starts, then mathematical expectation for Sanju is
(a) Rs 35
(b) Rs 42
(c) Rs 55
(d) Rs. 47
Answer: (c)
Explanation:.
Probability of Sanju winning
5 1 5 5 5 1
.....
6 6 6 6 6 6
5 25 25
2
1 ...
36 36 36
5 1 5 36 5
.
36 1 25 36 11 11
36
5
Mathematical expectation for Sanju = Rs. 121 = Rs. 55
11
Practice Worksheet
1. The probability that certain electronic component fails when first used is 0.12. If it does not fail
immediately, the probability that it lasts for one year is 0.98. The probability that a new component will last
for one year is
(a) 0.8918
(b) 0.8624
(c) 0.7216
(d) 0.9821
Answer: (b)
Explanation:.
Given: probability, that electronic component fails when first used = 0.12 i.e., P(F) = 0.12
P(F`) = 1 P(F) = 0.12 =0.88
And let P(Y) = Probability of new component to last for one year obviously, the two events are
mutually exclusive and exhaustive
P 0 and P 0.98
Y Y
F F
Y Y
P Y P F .P P F ` .P
F F
= 0.12 × 0 +0.88 × 0.98 = 0+ (0.88)(0.98) = 0.8624
2. A die is loaded so that the probability of face i is proportional to i, i = 1, 2,...,6. The probability of an
odd number occurring when the die is rolled, is
2
(a)
7
4
(b)
7
3
(c)
7
1
(d)
7
Answer: (c)
Explanation:
Since the probability of the faces are proportional to the numbers on them, we can take the probabilities of
faces, 1, 2, ……….6 as k, 2k, ……., 6k respectively.
Since one of the faces must occur, we have
k 2k 3k 4k 5k 6k 1
1
Or k
21
the probability of an odd number
1 3
k 3k 5k 9k 9
21 7
3. Out of 10 questions, If Arjun gets 8 or more correct answers, and then he passes the exam. Given that
he guesses at the answer to each question, the probability that he passes the exam, is
3
(a)
128
5
(b)
128
7
(c)
128
11
(d)
128
Answer: (c)
Explanation:
n = Total number of ways = 210 = 1024.
Since each answer can be true or false.
and m = favorable number of ways
10C8 10C9 10C10 45 10 1 56
Since to pass the exam, he must give 8 or 9 true answers.
m 56 7
Hence, p
n 1024 128
4. The chance of an event happening is the square of the chance of a second event but the odds
against the first are the cubes of the odds against the second then consider the following statements
1
I. Probability of the first event =
9
1
II. Probability of the second event =
3
Which of the following statement is correct?
(a) Only I
(b) Only II
(c) Both I and II
(d) Neither I nor II
Answer: (c)
Explanation:
Let the chance of the second event be p. Then the chance of the first event is p2.
Odds against the first event are as 1 p 2 : p 2
And odds against the second event are 1 p : p
According to the given information, we have
3
1 p2 1 p
p2 p
1 p 1 p 1 p
3
p2 p3
p p 1 1 p 2
p2 p p2 2 p 1 3 p 1
1 1
p and p 2
3 9
1
Hence, the probability of the first event =
9
1
And the probability of the second event =
3
Hence, both the statements are correct.
5. Four cards marked A, B, C and D respectively are placed in a bag. A card is drawn at random
five times, being replaced each time. The probability that the sum of the numbers on the card is 15, is
1
(a)
1024
5
(b)
1024
9
(c)
1024
17
(d)
1024
Answer: (b)
Explanation:
Let S be the sample space and E be the required event.
Now, n(S) = total number of cases = 45 = 1024.
and n(E) = coefficient of x15 in (x0+ x + x10 + x11)5
= coefficient of x15 in [(1 + x)5(1 + x10)5]
= coefficient of x15in
1 5x 10 x 2
10 x3 5 x 4 x5 1 5 x10 10 x 20 ........ 5
nE 5
Required probability P E
nS 1024
6. Numbers are selected at random one at a time, from the numbers 0, 1, 2, ………, 99 with
replacement. An event E occurs if and only if the product of the two digits of a selected number is 24. If
four numbers are selected, then the probability that the probability that E occurs at least 3 times, is
97
(a)
390625
21
(b)
390625
56
(c)
390625
34
(d)
390625
Answer: (a)
Explanation:
Out of the numbers 0,1,2.....99, those numbers the product of whose digits is 24 are 38, 46, 64, 83 i.e., only
4.
p PE
4
1
100 25
, q P E 1
1 24
25 25
Let X be the random variable, showing the number of times E occurs in 4 selections.
Then P(E occurs at least 3 times) =P(X = 3 or X = 4)
P X 3 P X 4
4C3 p 3 q1 4C4 p 4 q 0 4 p 3 q p 4
3 4
1 24 1 97
4
25 25 25 390625
7. If A and B are such events that P(A) > 0 and P(B) 1, then
Consider the following statements.
1 P A B
I. P A is equal to
B
P B
A
II P A is equal to 1 P
B B
Which of the following statement is correct?
(a) Only I
(b) Only II
(c) Both I and II
(d) Neither I nor II
Answer: (a)
Explanation:.
A P A B
P
B P B
1 P A B 1 P A B 1 P A B
=
P B P B P B
Hence, only statement I is correct.
8. An MBA applies for a job in two companies A and B. The probability of his being selected in
companies A is 0.8 and being rejected at B is 0.4. The probability of at least one of his
applications being rejected is 0.5. The probability that he will be selected in one of the company, is
(a) 0.6
(b) 0.4
(c) 0.7
(d) 0.8
Answer: (c)
Explanation:
Let A and B denote the events that the person is selected in company A and B respectively.
P A 0.8 P A 1 0.8 0.2
P B 0.4 P B 1 0.4 0.6
And P A B 0.5
The probability that the persons will be selected in one of the two companies A or B is given by:
P A B 1 P
1 P A P B P A B
= 1 (0.2 + 0.6 0.5) = 0.7
9. At the college entrance examination on, each candidate is admitted or rejected according to whether
he has passed or failed the tests. Of the candidates who are really capable, 60% pass the test and of the
incapable, 15% pass the test. Given that 30% of the candidates are really capable, then the proportion of
capable college students is about
(a) 38%
(b) 30%
(c) 33%
(d) 35%
Answer: (b)
Explanation:
Let A be the event that a really able candidate passes the test and let B be the event that any candidate passes
this test. Then we have
B B
P 0.6, P c 0.15
A A
P A 0.3, P Ac 1 0.3 0.7
By Bayes’ formula
B
P A P
A A 0.3 0.6 0.18 0.18 18
P = 30 %
B P A P B P Ac P B 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.18 0.42 0.60 60
A A
10. The probability that a man aged x years will die in a year is p. The probability that out of n men
A1,A2,A3,...An, each aged x, then consider the following statements.
Since every man can die first, the chance that A1, will die first is.
1
Hence the probability that A1, will die within a year and he will be first to die 1 1 p n
n
Hence, only statement II is correct.
11. Let 0 < P(A) < 1, 0 < P(B) < l and P A B P A P B P A P B , then consider the following
statements.
I. P A B ` P A` P B`
II. P P A
A
B
Which of the following statement is correct?
(a) Only I
(b) Only II
(c) Both I and II
(d) Neither I nor II
Answer: (c)
Explanation:
P A B P A P B P A P B
P A P B P A B P A P B P A P B
P A B P A P B
A and B are independent events.
P B A` P B P A` P B P A and
P A`B` P A B ` 1 P A B 1 P A P B 1 P A 1 P B P A` P B`
Also P A B ` P A`B` P A` P B`
Since A and B are independent P(A|B) = P(A)
Hence, both the statements are correct.
12. 5 cricket player and 10 hockey player sit at random in a row having 15 chairs numbered as 1 to 15.
The probability that end seats are occupied by the cricket players and between any two cricket players
odd number of hockey players sits, is
10
(a)
1001
20
(b)
3003
10
(c)
3003
16
(d)
3003
Answer: (b)
Explanation:
There are four gaps in between the cricket players where the hockey players can sit.
Let the number of hockey players in these gaps be
2a + l, 2b+ 1,2c + 1,2d + 1 = 0, then
2a + 1 + 2b + l + 2c + 1+2d + 1=10
or a + b + c + d = 3
The number of solution of above equation = coefficient of x3 in (1x)4 = 6C3 20
Thus hockey players and cricket players can sit in 20 × 10! × 5! Ways
Total ways = 15!
20 10! 5! 20 10! 5 4 3 2 1 2400 20
Hence, the required probability =
15! 15 14 13 12 11 10! 360360 3003
13. A and B are two events. Odds against A are 3 : 1. Odds in favour of A B are 4 : 1. If
x P B y then the ordered pair x, y is
5 4
(a) ,
12 5
2 4
(b) ,
3 5
11 3
(c) ,
3 4
11 4
(d) ,
20 5
Answer: (d)
Explanation:
1 4
We have, P(A) = and P A B
4 5
P A B P A P B P A B
4 1
P B P A B
5 4
11
P B P A B
20
1 11 11
P B P A B P B
20 20
11
Again, P(B) = P A B
20
11
P B P A P A B P A
20
11 1 16 4
P B …..(ii)
20 4 20 5
11 4
From (i) and (ii) , we obtain P B
20 5
11 4
Hence, and
20 5
14. Suppose X follows a binomial distribution with parameters n and p, where 0< p < 1. If P(x = r)
/P(x = n r) is independent of n and r, then consider the following statements.
1
I. p
2
1
II. p
4
Which of the following statement is correct?
(a) Only I
(b) Only II
(c) Both I and II
(d) Neither I nor II
Answer: (a)
Explanation:
p X r
We have
P X n r
Cr p 1 p 1 p
n r nr n 2r
Cn r P n r 1 p pn2r
n r
n2r n 2r
1 p 1
1
p p
1
And 1 0
p
1 1
the ratio will be independent of n and r if 1 1 or p
p 2
Hence, only statement I is correct.
15. A bag contains (2n + 1) coins. It is known that n of these coins have a head on both sides,
whereas the remaining (n + 1) coins are fair. A coin is picked up at random from the bag and tossed.
18
If the probability that the toss results in a head is , then n is equal to
25
(a) 10
(b) 11
(c) 12
(d) 13
Answer: (c)
Explanation:
Both heads appear on n coins and head and a tail appear (n + 1) coins so
n n 1
C1 C1 1 18
P(head) = 2 n 1
.1 2 n 1
.
C1 C1 2 25
n n 18
2n 1 2 2n 1 25
2n n 18
2 2n 1 25
3n 25 36 2n 1
75n 72n 36
3n 36
n 12
16. If the mean of a binomial distribution is 36, then its standard deviation lies in the interval given
below:
(a) [0,6)
(b) (0, 6]
(c) [0, 36)
(d) (0,36]
Answer: (a)
Explanation:
We have, np 36
Now, 0 p 1 and 0 q 1
0 n pq np 0 npq np
0 S.D. 6 But p 0
S.D. [0, 6)
17. Two integers a and b are chosen at random from the set 1 to 100 then the probability that a
number of the form 7a + 7b is divisible by 5 is
1
(a)
5
1
(b)
7
1
(c)
4
1
(d)
49
Answer: (a)
Explanation:
We know 7k, k N, has 1, 3, 9, 7 at the units place for k = 4p, 4p1,4p2,4p3 respectively, where p =
1,2,3,...
Clearly, 7a + 7b will be divisible by 5 if 7a has 3 or 7 in the unit place and 7b has 7 or 3 in the units place or
7a has 1 or 9 in the units place and 7a has 9 or 1 in the units place.
for any choice of a, b the digit in the units place of 7a 7b is 2, 4, 6, 0 or 8. It is divisible by 5 only when
this digits is 0.
1
the required probability =
5
If two events A and B are such that P(Ac) = 0.2 P(B) = 0.4 and P(ABc) = 0.6 then P
B
18. c
A B
3
(a)
4
1
(b)
3
1
(c)
4
3
(d)
4
Answer: (c)
Explanation:
P(A) = 1 P(Ac) = 1 0.2 = 0.8 , P(B) = 0.4
We know that P(A) = P A B P A B c
0.8 P A B 0.6
Or P A B 0.8 0.6 0.2
P A Bc P A P Bc P A B c
0.8 1 0.4 0.6 0.8
c
P B A B c
Next P[B|P(AB )] =
P A Bc
From set theory
B A Bc B A B B c
B A B A
P A B 0.2 1
required probability =
P A B c
0.8 4
1 1 1
19. The probabilities of four students P, Q, R and S scoring more than 80 marks in an exam are , ,
2 3 4
1
and . It is known that exactly two of the students scored more than 80 runs in a particular exam. The
10
probability that these students were P and Q is
27
(a)
65
25
(b)
6
1
(c)
6
9
(d)
8
Answer: (a)
Explanation:
Let E1 be the event that exactly two students scored more than 80 marks than P(E1) =
1 1 3 9 1 2 1 9 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 9 1 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 65
2 3 4 10 2 3 4 10 2 3 4 10 2 3 4 10 2 3 4 10 2 3 4 10 240
Let E2 be the event that P and Q scored more than 80 marks, then
1 1 3 9 27
P E1 E2
2 3 4 10 240
E
required probability = P 2
E1
P E1 E2 27
P E1 65
21. A dice is thrown once. Then the probability of getting a number greater than 2 is
1
(a)
2
2
(b)
3
0
(c)
3
(d) 1
Answer: (b)
Explanation:
Favorable case is 3, 4, 5, 6
4 2
required probability =
6 3
22. The probability that a leap year selected at random will contain 53 Sundays is
1
(a)
7
2
(b)
7
6
(c)
7
6
(d)
14
Answer: (b)
Explanation:
In a leap year, there are 52 weeks and two additional days which are Sunday and Monday, Monday and
Tuesday, Tuesday and Wednesday , Wednesday and Thursday , Thursday and Friday , Friday and Saturday,
Saturday and Sunday.
2
required probability =
7
23. Given two independent events A and B such that P (A) = 0.15 and P (B) = 0.24. Probability of not
getting neither A or B is
(a) 0.646
(b) 0.428
(c) 0.134
(d) 0.285
Answer: (a)
Explanation:
P A B P A B
1 P A B P PA P B P A B
1 P A P B P A B
1 0.15 0.24 0.15 0.24 1 0.39 0.036 0.646
Answer: (b)
Explanation:
Total number of equally like cases = 52
Number of court cards = 12
12 3
Required probability =
52 13
25. If three dice are thrown simultaneously the probability of getting a score of 4 is
5
(a)
216
1
(b)
6
1
(c)
36
1
(d)
72
Answer: (d)
Explanation:
Total number of equally likely events are 6 × 6 × 6 = 216 and favorable outcomes are (1, 1, 2), (1, 2, 1) (2,
1, 1)
3 1
So, required probability =
216 72
26. P and Q toss 3 coins. The probability that both obtain the same number of tails is
1
(a)
8
7
(b)
16
5
(c)
16
5
(d)
8
Answer: (c)
Explanation:.
P (both obtain some number of tail= P (no tail or no tail; tail or two tail or three tails)
1 1 3 3 3 3 1 1
, , , .
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
20 5
64 16
27. The probability that a card drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards is a king or heart is
16
(a)
52
1
(b)
52
1
(c)
4
1
(d)
13
Answer: (d)
Explanation:
If A be the event that there is a king and B be the event that there is a heart,
4 13 1
P A ; P B ; P A B
52 52 52
P A B P A P B P A B
4 13 1 16
52 52 52 52
28. From each of the five married couples, one of the partners is selected at random. The probability that
those selected are of the same sex is
1
(a)
2
1
(b)
4
1
(c)
8
1
(d)
16
Answer: (d)
Explanation:
2 1 1
Required probability = 5
4
2 2 16
29. If A and B are two mutually exclusive events such that P(B) = 3P(A) and AB = S, then P(B) is
equal to
1
(a)
2
3
(b)
4
2
(c)
3
1
(d)
3
Answer: (b)
Explanation:
P A B P A P B
P A B P A 3P A 4P A
1
P S 4 P A 1 4 P A P A
4
1 3
P A P B 1 P B 1 P A 1
4 4
30. A coin is tossed 6 times. The probability of getting a head three times is
1
(a)
24
7
(b)
64
5
(c)
16
3
(d)
16
Answer: (c)
Explanation:
5
C3 10 5
Required probability =
25 32 16