Structure Chapter 01
Structure Chapter 01
Digital Computing
From Mainframes to Big Data
by
Robert L. Grossman
ISBN 978-1-936298-00-6
Contents
2 Commoditization 45
2.1 Christmas and Easter . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
2.2 The Commoditization of Time . . . . . . . 47
2.3 The Commoditization of Space . . . . . . . 49
2.4 Moore’s Law . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
2.5 Commoditization is All Around Us . . . . 54
2.6 The Doubling Game . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
i
2.7 Transforming Technologies . . . . . . . . . 61
2.8 Storage and Johnson’s Law . . . . . . . . . 62
2.9 Bandwidth and Gilder’s Law . . . . . . . . 66
2.10 Software and Stallman’s Law . . . . . . . . 67
2.11 Data and the Bermuda Principles . . . . . 74
2.12 Network Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
ii
5.6 Kepler’s Law and Brahe’s Data . . . . . . . 178
5.7 Pearson’s Law . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
5.8 The Bermuda Principles . . . . . . . . . . . 188
5.9 World Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
5.10 The Shape of Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
5.11 Case Study: Consumer Databases . . . . . 199
5.12 Creating Digital Data . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
5.13 Using Data to Make Decisions . . . . . . . . 207
5.14 Case Study: Mammograms . . . . . . . . . 211
5.15 Events, Profiles and Alerts . . . . . . . . . . 214
5.16 Case Study: NASA’s EOS . . . . . . . . . 219
Notes 225
References 249
iii
Preface
v
Although there have been some changes since 2003 (for ex-
ample, computers are faster, there are more web sites, and
phones are smarter), hopefully as the book will make clear,
at a more fundamental level, we are still on the same fifty
or so year trajectory today that we were on in 2003.
Robert L. Grossman
vi
Chapter 1
1.1 Introduction
This book is about the structure of digital computing: it
is concerned with what is significant, what is novel, what
endures, and why it is all so confusing.
Computing and communication technologies have got-
ten a bad name for being hard to predict and difficult to
understand. In this book, I take the opposing point of view:
that many of the most important phenomena that underlie
computing have been remarkably regular and predictable
over the past fifty years.
For example, the remarkable growth of processing power
exemplified by Moore’s Law has followed a regular pattern
for over forty years. To put it simply, for most applica-
tions, processing power is a commodity and no harder to
get than other commodities, such as electrical power. What
is sometimes not appreciated is that a variety of other un-
derlying processes that form the basis for today’s compu-
tational and communications infrastructure have also been
commoditized. For example, software and network band-
width have been commoditized and show a similar regular-
ity.
1
2 The Five Eras of Computing
9 44 40 40 209.247.34.166 internap-ne.chicago1.level3.net
10 38 37 37 64.94.32.11 border6.po1-bbnet1.chg.pnap.net
11 49 40 41 64.94.34.74 mypoints10.border6.chg.pnap.net
12 45 40 40 209.87.127.111 -
13 42 40 43 209.87.112.90 www.united.com
All is Number.
Attributed to Pythagoras
Euclid alone
Has looked on Beauty bare.
5
4
3 3 3
3. Go to Step 2.
sqrt of 2
1.5
1.41666666667
1.41421568627
16 The Five Eras of Computing
1.41421356237
1.41421356237
...
sqrt of 5
2.25
2.23611111111
2.23606797792
2.2360679775
2.2360679775
...
sqrt of 5,934,939
1483735.75
741869.874999
370938.937486
185477.46863
92754.7333983
46409.3593468
23268.6208599
11761.8413875
6133.21703089
3550.44423902
2611.0244305
2442.02762481
2436.18004142
2436.17302342
2436.17302341
2436.17302341
...
c=axb C=A+B
Figure 1.3: The first idea underlying the slide rule is that
there are certain functions (f and g in the diagram) that
transform multiplication and division into addition and
subtraction. John Napier discovered such a pair of func-
tions in the early 17th century.
degrees sine
0 0.00000
20 0.34202
40 0.64279
60 0.86603
80 0.98481
100 0.98481
120 0.86603
140 0.64279
160 0.34202
180 0.00000
200 -0.34202
220 -0.64279
240 -0.86603
260 -0.98481
280 -0.98481
300 -0.86603
320 -0.64279
340 -0.34202
360 0.00000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9
The longer you look back, the further you can look
forward.
Winston Churchill
24 The Five Eras of Computing
S: RCPT TO:
R: 250 OK
S: RCPT TO:
R: 550 No such user here
S: RCPT TO:
R: 250 OK
S: DATA
R: 354 Start mail input; end with .
S: Blah blah blah...
S: ...etc. etc. etc.
S: .
R: 250 OK
EMail is exchanged when an email client connects to a
SMTP server. The SMTP server is a computer that pro-
vides an Internet or web service. In particular it listens for
requests from SMTP clients. Clients include proprietary
Microsoft products such Outlook, as well as browser-based
email, such as those provided by Google, Yahoo or Hotmail.
In the computer-to-computer conversation above, Smith
(the sender S) at the computer alpha.arpa tries to send
1.14 Case Study: SMTP 33
MAIL FROM:
RCPT FROM:
DATA