Short Term Solar Power Forecasting Based On Recurrent Neural Network Model (Irjet)
Short Term Solar Power Forecasting Based On Recurrent Neural Network Model (Irjet)
The integration of renewable energy sources, particularly Ultimately, the implementation of accurate short-term
solar power, into electrical grids has become a cornerstone solar power forecasting models, such as the one proposed
of efforts to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate climate in this study, is key to enhancing the stability and
change. However, solar power generation is inherently reliability of renewable energy systems, contributing to a
intermittent and subject to environmental factors such as sustainable and energy-efficient future.
weather, time of day, and seasonal variations.
Consequently, accurate short-term solar power forecasting
is crucial for optimizing grid operations, ensuring reliable
energy supply, and enhancing the efficiency of energy
storage and distribution systems.
1.1 Background of the Work
2.5 Model Training and Prediction Layer ● Once trained, the model is capable of generating
real-time forecasts by feeding it the most recent
The model training and prediction layer involves solar power and meteorological data as input. The
building and training the LSTM-based forecasting model. model predicts the solar power output for a
This layer includes the following components: short-term horizon (e.g., the next 1 hour or 3
hours).
a. LSTM Model Architecture:
2.6. Post-Processing Layer
● Input Layer: The preprocessed data (historical
solar power and meteorological features) is The post-processing layer is responsible for any
passed to the LSTM network. Each input consists additional processing required to format and present the
of a sequence of past time steps for a given set of model’s outputs:
features.
● LSTM Layers: The core of the model is one or ● Inverse Normalization: If the input features were
more LSTM layers, which are designed to capture normalized or standardized, the output is
temporal dependencies in the time-series data. denormalized to obtain the actual solar power
The LSTM units will learn patterns from the values in kW or MW.
historical data, such as daily cycles in solar ● Confidence Intervals and Uncertainty
radiation or weather trends. Estimation: The model’s predictions can be
● Dense Layer: After the LSTM layers, a fully supplemented with uncertainty estimates,
connected (dense) layer is used to map the LSTM providing confidence intervals for the forecast.
output to the target solar power prediction. This is useful for grid operators in understanding
● Output Layer: The output is the predicted solar the variability and reliability of the forecasts.
power generation for the next time step (e.g., 1 ● Forecast Aggregation: If multiple models are
hour, 3 hours). This is a continuous numerical used for different time horizons or locations,
value representing the expected kW or MW of forecasts can be aggregated or adjusted to provide
solar power generation. an overall energy forecast for the entire grid or
system.
b. Training Process:
2.7. Integration Layer (Grid and Energy Systems)
● Loss Function: The model is trained to minimize
the loss function, typically Mean Absolute Error Once the model is trained and validated, it is integrated
(MAE) or Mean Squared Error (MSE), which into the grid or energy management system for real-time