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Short Term Solar Power Forecasting Based On Recurrent Neural Network Model (Irjet)

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Short Term Solar Power Forecasting Based On Recurrent Neural Network Model (Irjet)

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Web Research
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SHORT TERM SOLAR POWER FORECASTING BASED ON

RECURRENT NEURAL NETWORK MODEL


SUMAN KUMAR G [Dept. of Electrical and Electronics Engineering]
JAYA PRAKASH S [Dept. Mechatronics Engineering]
GEMINI R [Dept. of Electrical and Electronics Engineering]
VISHVA B [Dept. of Electrical and Electronics Engineering]
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Abstract - The demand for accurate short-term solar In recent years, machine learning (ML) models have shown
power forecasting has increased with the growing promise in addressing the challenges associated with solar
integration of solar energy into the power grid. Predicting power forecasting. Among these models, Recurrent Neural
solar power generation over short time horizons, such as Networks (RNNs) have garnered attention due to their
hourly or sub-hourly intervals, is critical for optimizing grid ability to model time-series data and capture the temporal
operations and ensuring energy balance. This study dependencies inherent in solar power generation. The
proposes a forecasting model based on Recurrent Neural Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, a specialized
Networks (RNNs), specifically Long Short-Term Memory type of RNN, is particularly effective for handling
(LSTM) networks, to predict short-term solar power output. long-term dependencies and mitigating issues such as
LSTMs are particularly suited for time-series data due to vanishing gradients, making it well-suited for forecasting
their ability to capture temporal dependencies. In this work, solar power in a dynamic environment.
historical solar power generation data, along with
meteorological variables such as temperature, humidity, and This study focuses on leveraging LSTM networks for
solar radiation, are used to train the model. The short-term solar power forecasting. By utilizing historical
performance of the proposed RNN model is evaluated solar power generation data along with key meteorological
against traditional machine learning approaches, parameters (such as temperature, humidity, and solar
demonstrating its superior accuracy in short-term radiation), the model aims to accurately predict power
forecasting. Results indicate that the RNN-based model output over short intervals (e.g., hourly or sub-hourly
provides reliable solar power predictions, which can be forecasts). The ability to forecast solar energy output with
utilized to improve grid management, integrate solar energy high accuracy is essential for grid operators to better
more effectively, and optimize energy dispatch in renewable manage power generation, reduce reliance on
power systems. non-renewable backup sources, and facilitate the
integration of solar energy into the grid.
Key Words: hort-term forecasting, Solar power, Recurrent
Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), The proposed LSTM-based model is compared with
Time-series prediction, Renewable energy, Grid integration, traditional forecasting techniques, such as statistical
Meteorological data, Energy optimization, Machine models and simpler machine learning algorithms, to assess
learning. its efficacy and potential for real-world application. The
results highlight the advantages of deep learning
approaches in capturing complex patterns in solar power
generation data, offering significant improvements in
1.INTRODUCTION: short-term forecasting accuracy.

The integration of renewable energy sources, particularly Ultimately, the implementation of accurate short-term
solar power, into electrical grids has become a cornerstone solar power forecasting models, such as the one proposed
of efforts to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate climate in this study, is key to enhancing the stability and
change. However, solar power generation is inherently reliability of renewable energy systems, contributing to a
intermittent and subject to environmental factors such as sustainable and energy-efficient future.
weather, time of day, and seasonal variations.
Consequently, accurate short-term solar power forecasting
is crucial for optimizing grid operations, ensuring reliable
energy supply, and enhancing the efficiency of energy
storage and distribution systems.
1.1 Background of the Work

© 2024, IRJET Volume: 03 Issue: 01 | NOV-2024 Page 1


2.1 System Architecture
The rapid expansion of solar energy as a key component of
the global renewable energy mix has brought about new The system architecture for short-term solar power
challenges related to its integration into existing power forecasting using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs),
grids. Unlike traditional power generation methods, solar specifically Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks,
energy is variable and heavily dependent on consists of several key components working in tandem to
environmental conditions such as solar irradiance, cloud provide accurate solar power predictions. This
cover, temperature, and time of day. This variability can architecture integrates various stages, from data collection
lead to fluctuations in the amount of power produced by to real-time forecasting and grid integration. Below is a
solar installations, making it difficult to predict power detailed breakdown of the architecture:
generation with accuracy over short time horizons. Such
uncertainty can cause challenges for grid operators, as the 2.1. Data Collection Layer
integration of intermittent renewable energy sources
requires careful balancing with other power generation The data collection layer is responsible for acquiring the
methods to ensure grid stability and reliability. input data that will be used for training and predicting
solar power generation. This layer collects data from
multiple sources:
1.2 Motivation and Scope of the Proposed Work
● Solar Power Generation Data: Historical power
The transition toward renewable energy is a critical output data from solar photovoltaic (PV) systems
component of global efforts to combat climate change and at different time intervals (e.g., hourly,
ensure sustainable energy systems. Among renewable sub-hourly). This data will be the target variable
sources, solar energy is rapidly growing due to its that the model predicts.
environmental benefits and decreasing cost. However, ● Meteorological Data: Environmental factors like
solar power generation is highly intermittent and solar irradiance, temperature, humidity, wind
dependent on fluctuating meteorological factors such as speed, cloud cover, and atmospheric pressure.
sunlight, temperature, and cloud cover. This variability These factors significantly affect solar power
presents significant challenges for grid operators who generation and will be used as input features for
need to balance supply and demand, particularly as solar the model.
energy becomes a larger share of total generation. ● Time Information: Timestamp data that helps in
capturing temporal dependencies (e.g., hour of the
Accurate short-term solar power forecasting plays a key day, day of the week, and seasonality).
role in mitigating these challenges. By providing reliable ● External Data Sources: Data may also be
predictions of solar power output over short time horizons collected from external sources like weather
(ranging from minutes to hours), operators can better stations or satellites to obtain more accurate
anticipate fluctuations in solar generation, optimize grid meteorological forecasts.
management, improve energy storage strategies, and
integrate solar energy into the grid more efficiently. 2. 3 Data Sources and Flow:

● Solar Power Data → Weather Stations →


Meteorological Sensors
● Data collection can occur in real-time or be
obtained through historical datasets stored in
2. METHODOLOGY databases.
The methodology for this research focuses on developing a
deep learning-based model using Long Short-Term
2.4. Data Preprocessing Layer
Memory (LSTM) networks to forecast short-term solar
power generation. The process involves several stages,
The data preprocessing layer is critical to ensure that the
including data collection and preprocessing, model design,
raw input data is cleaned, formatted, and normalized for
training, evaluation, and comparison with traditional
efficient training and forecasting. The preprocessing steps
forecasting methods. Below is a detailed breakdown of the
include:
methodology.
● Data Cleaning: Handle missing values by
2.1 System Architecture imputation (e.g., using mean or interpolation),
removing outliers, and filtering noise.

© 2024, IRJET Volume: 03 Issue: 01 | NOV-2024 Page 2


● Data Normalization/Standardization: Scale quantifies the difference between predicted and
numerical values (e.g., solar irradiance, actual solar power values.
temperature) into a uniform range (e.g., 0-1 using ● Optimizer: Optimization algorithms like Adam
Min-Max normalization or z-score (Adaptive Moment Estimation) or RMSprop are
standardization) to prevent any one feature from used to update the model’s weights and minimize
dominating the model training due to differing the loss function during training.
magnitudes. ● Hyperparameter Tuning: The architecture is
● Time-Series Formatting: Structure the data into tuned for hyperparameters such as the number of
sequences, where a fixed number of previous time LSTM units, learning rate, batch size, and number
steps (lags) are used to predict the next time step. of training epochs using techniques like grid
For example, use data from the last 24 hours to search or random search.
predict the solar power for the next hour.
● Feature Engineering: Additional features such as c. Model Validation:
weather trends (moving averages, trends in solar
irradiance) or daypart indicators (e.g., morning, ● The model's performance is validated using
noon, evening) can be created to enhance model cross-validation techniques and evaluation
performance. metrics such as RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error),
● Train-Test Split: Divide the data into training and MAE (Mean Absolute Error), and R² to assess the
testing datasets, ensuring that the test set includes accuracy and robustness of the model.
unseen data to evaluate the model’s generalization
ability. d. Real-Time Prediction:

2.5 Model Training and Prediction Layer ● Once trained, the model is capable of generating
real-time forecasts by feeding it the most recent
The model training and prediction layer involves solar power and meteorological data as input. The
building and training the LSTM-based forecasting model. model predicts the solar power output for a
This layer includes the following components: short-term horizon (e.g., the next 1 hour or 3
hours).
a. LSTM Model Architecture:
2.6. Post-Processing Layer
● Input Layer: The preprocessed data (historical
solar power and meteorological features) is The post-processing layer is responsible for any
passed to the LSTM network. Each input consists additional processing required to format and present the
of a sequence of past time steps for a given set of model’s outputs:
features.
● LSTM Layers: The core of the model is one or ● Inverse Normalization: If the input features were
more LSTM layers, which are designed to capture normalized or standardized, the output is
temporal dependencies in the time-series data. denormalized to obtain the actual solar power
The LSTM units will learn patterns from the values in kW or MW.
historical data, such as daily cycles in solar ● Confidence Intervals and Uncertainty
radiation or weather trends. Estimation: The model’s predictions can be
● Dense Layer: After the LSTM layers, a fully supplemented with uncertainty estimates,
connected (dense) layer is used to map the LSTM providing confidence intervals for the forecast.
output to the target solar power prediction. This is useful for grid operators in understanding
● Output Layer: The output is the predicted solar the variability and reliability of the forecasts.
power generation for the next time step (e.g., 1 ● Forecast Aggregation: If multiple models are
hour, 3 hours). This is a continuous numerical used for different time horizons or locations,
value representing the expected kW or MW of forecasts can be aggregated or adjusted to provide
solar power generation. an overall energy forecast for the entire grid or
system.
b. Training Process:
2.7. Integration Layer (Grid and Energy Systems)
● Loss Function: The model is trained to minimize
the loss function, typically Mean Absolute Error Once the model is trained and validated, it is integrated
(MAE) or Mean Squared Error (MSE), which into the grid or energy management system for real-time

© 2024, IRJET Volume: 03 Issue: 01 | NOV-2024 Page 3


forecasting and decision-making. The integration layer
involves:

● Energy Management System (EMS): The model’s


output is fed into the grid’s energy management
system (EMS), which uses it for tasks such as
power scheduling, load balancing, and storage
optimization. The model's forecast helps grid
operators plan for expected solar power
generation and adjust fossil fuel-based generation
accordingly.
● Real-time Control: The forecasts can help
real-time grid operations, such as:
○ Dispatching backup power plants when
solar power is expected to be low.
○ Charging/discharging energy storage
systems (batteries) to compensate for
solar generation fluctuations.
○ Adjusting power import/export from/to
neighboring grids.
● Communication Layer: The system architecture
may include communication protocols that allow
the forecasting model to interact with sensors,
grid controllers, and other distributed systems in
real-time. This could involve using APIs or
IoT-based communication.

2.8. User Interface (Optional)


Fig -1- Flowchart
For monitoring and decision support, a user interface
(UI) can be provided for grid operators and energy
managers. The UI displays:
3. CONCLUSIONS
● Solar Power Predictions: Real-time and
forecasted solar power output for the coming The system architecture for short-term solar power
hours. forecasting based on LSTM networks involves a
● Model Performance Metrics: Accuracy and multi-layered approach, from data collection and
reliability metrics for the forecasts. preprocessing to real-time predictions and grid
● Operational Suggestions: Recommendations for integration. By using advanced deep learning techniques
adjusting grid operations based on solar such as LSTMs, the system is capable of providing accurate,
generation forecasts (e.g., turning on/off backup short-term solar power forecasts, which can be directly
generators or modifying storage levels). integrated into energy management systems, thus
improving grid stability and facilitating better integration
of solar power into the grid.

Suggestions for Future Work


1. Integration of Multi-source Data
2. Advanced Deep Learning Architectures

3. Improving Forecast Horizon and Temporal


Resolution

© 2024, IRJET Volume: 03 Issue: 01 | NOV-2024 Page 4


REFERENCES

Rasmussen, C. E., & Williams, C. K. I. (2006). Gaussian


Processes for Machine Learning. MIT Press.

● This book provides a comprehensive introduction to


Gaussian processes, an important method in machine
learning, often used for probabilistic forecasting.

Khatib, T., & Al-Muhanna, A. (2019). Short-term Solar


Power Forecasting using Machine Learning Algorithms:
A Survey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,
101, 372-387.

● This review article surveys various machine learning


algorithms for short-term solar power forecasting,
comparing traditional models with modern machine
learning approaches, including RNNs.

© 2024, IRJET Volume: 03 Issue: 01 | NOV-2024 Page 5

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