Bayes Rule:

1. In a neighbourhood, 90% children were falling sick due flu and 10% due to
measles and no other disease. The probability of observing rashes for
measles is 0.95 and for flu is 0.08. If a child develops rashes, find the
child’s probability of having flu?
2. It is observed that 50% of mails are spam. There is a software that filters
spam mail before reaching the inbox. It accuracy for detecting a spam
mail is 99% and chances of tagging a non-spam mail as spam mail is 5%.
If a certain mail is tagged as spam find the probability that it is not a spam
mail.
3. Three persons A, B and C have applied for a job in a private company. The
probabilities that A, B and C can introduce changes to improve the profits
of the company are 0.8, 0.5 and 0.3, respectively. find the probability that
it is due to the appointment of C.
4. A doctor is called to see a sick child. The doctor has prior information that 90% of sick
children in that neighbourhood have the flu, while the other 10% are sick with measles.
Upon examining the child, the doctor finds a rash. What is the probability that the child has
measles?
5. It is estimated that 50% of emails are spam emails. Some software has been applied to filter
these spam emails before they reach your inbox. A certain brand of software claims that it
can detect 99% of spam emails, and the probability for a false positive (a non-spam email
detected as spam) is 5%. Now if an email is detected as spam, then what is the probability
that it is in fact a non-spam email?

Conditional probability:

1. Suppose 36% of families own a dog, 30% of families own a cat, and 22% of the families that
have a dog also have a cat. What is the probability they also own a dog given that a cat.
2. Suppose 30% of the women in a class received an A on the test and 25% of the men received
an A. The class is 60% women. a person chosen at random received an A given that the
probability this person is a woman?
3. A total of 500 married couples are polled about their salaries,

Husband makes less than Husband makes more than

$25K $25K
Wife makes less than $25K 212 198
Wife makes more than 36 54
$25K
 Find the probability that husband earns less than $25K given that Wife makes more
than $25K?
 Find the probability that husband earns more than $25K given that Wife makes
more than $25K?
 Find the probability that wife earns less than $25K given that Wife makes more than
$25K?
 Find the probability that husband earns more than $25K given that Wife makes less
than $25K?
4. Suppose a factory has machines I, II, and III that produce iSung phones. The factory's record
shows that Machines I, II and III produce, respectively, 2%, 1%, and 3% defective iSungs. Out
 of the total production, machines I, II, and III produce, respectively, 35%, 25% and 40% of all
iSungs. Given that the iSung is defective, what is the conditional probability that it was
produced by machine III?
5. A survey conducted in a college found that 40% of the students watch show A and 17% of
the students who follow show A, also watch show B. In addition, 20% of the students watch
show B. What is the probability that a randomly chosen student follows Show A AND Show
B?

Binomial Distribution:

1. If X is binomial distribution with 6 trials. The probability of success is 1/4 at each attempt.
a. Exactly 4 successes
b. Atleast 1 success
2. There are 4 fused bulbs in a lot of 10 good bulbs. If three bulbs are drawn
at random with replacement, find the probability of distribution of the
Atleast 3 number of fused bulbs?
3. On average, the probability is 1/10, Six telephone numbers are selected at
random. Find the probability that Exactly 4 of them will be busy.

Poison Distribution:

1. Cretan Airlines services which arrive late to Athens Airport on a typical week can be
modelled by a Poisson distribution with a parameter is 4.5?
2. The water from a lake is tested and is found to contain on average 3% bacteria per litre of
water. A sample of 250 ml is collected from the lake.
Determine the probability that the 250 ml water sample will contain; exactly two bacteria ;
at least two bacteria?
3. In a survey, along a certain coastline, plastic objects were found at a constant average rate
of 250 per km. And the probability is 4%. Find poison distribution?
4. A bakery sells chocolate birthday cakes through the internet. Orders for chocolate cakes are
random and arrive at the constant rate of 4.5 per day. Find poison distribution?

Normal Distribution:

1. Most graduate schools of business require applicants for admission to take the Graduate
Management Admission Council’s GMAT examination. Scores on the GMAT are roughly
normally distributed with a mean of 527 and a standard deviation of 112. What is the
probability of an individual scoring above 500 on the GMAT?
2. The length of human pregnancies from conception to birth approximates a normal
distribution with a mean of 266 days and a standard deviation of 16 days. What proportion
of all pregnancies will last between 240 and 270 days (roughly between 8 and 9 months)?
3. The average number of acres burned by forest and range fires in a large New Mexico county
is 4,300 acres per year, with a standard deviation of 750 acres. The distribution of the
number of acres burned is normal. What is the probability that between 2,500 and 4,200
acres will be burned in any given year?
4. The Edwards’s Theater chain has studied its movie customers to determine how much
money they spend on concessions. The study revealed that the spending distribution is
approximately normally distributed with a mean of $4.11 and a standard deviation of $1.37.
What percentage of customers will spend less than $3.00 on concessions?
 5. The weekly distances, D km, a leopard walks in search of food are thought to be Normally
distributed with a mean of 62 and a standard deviation of 10. Find the probability that on a
given week a leopard will walk less than 80 km.
6. The time, T minutes, Jason takes to cycle to school is Normally distributed with a mean of 17
and a variance of 8 . Find the probability that on a given day Jason will take over 22 minutes
to cycle to school.
7. The heights of mature elm trees, H metres, are Normally distributed with a mean of 14.5 and
a variance of 7 . Determine the probability that the height of a randomly chosen elm tree
will be less than 12 metres.
8. The weights of walnut cakes, W grams, are Normally distributed with a mean of 460 and a
standard deviation of 10. Find the probability the weight of such cake will be between 465
and 475 grams.
9. The lifetimes, T hours, of a certain brand of battery are assumed to be Normally distributed
with a mean of 825 and a variance of 900 . Find the probability that one such battery will last
between 801 and 870 hours.
10. The journey times of a bus service, T minutes, are thought to be Normally distributed with a
mean of 62 and a standard deviation of 5 . Determine the probability that the time of a
random journey from this bus service will be between 50 and 60 minutes.
11. The petrol consumption C , measured in mpg, of a certain make of car is Normally
distributed with a mean of 36 and a standard deviation of 4 . Find the probability that the
petrol consumption of one of the cars of this make will be measured between 30 mpg and
36 mpg.
12. The volume of washing up liquid, V ml, in a bottle is Normally distributed with a mean of 150
and a standard deviation of 10. Find the probability a bottle selected at random will contain
less than 163 ml.
13. The burning times of scented candles, T minutes, are Normally distributed with a mean of
252 and a standard deviation of 20 . Find the probability that one such candle will burn for
more than 237 minutes.

Probability Mass Function:

1. Directly from the probability mass function given by the following table:

X P(X)
2 1/15
1 2/15
0 3/15
3 4/15
5 5/15
compute E(X) and Var(X)?

2. the probability mass function given by the following table:

X P(X)
0 0.01
1 0.2
2 0.33
3 0.5
 4 0.9
Compute Var(X) and S.D(X)?
3. The probability mass function given by the following table:

X P(X)
0 0.03
1 0.25
2 0.1
3 0.6
4 0.07
5 0.1
6 0.04
Compute Atleast 5 probabilities, Var(X) and S.D(X)?

Geometric Distribution and Negative Binomial Distribution:

1. It is known that in a certain town 30% of the people own an Apfone. A researcher asks
people at random whether they own an Apfone. The random variable X represents the
number of people asked up third person upto the first person who owns an Apfone.
2. Nigel is playing tournament chess against a computer program and the probability he wins
against the program at any given game is 0.25. Nigel is playing several practice games every
day, one after the other,
 Nigel wins for the 4th time on the first game played
 Nigel wins for the 6th time on the 3rd game played
 Nigel wins for the 5th time on the 2rd game played
3. Justin is playing “Alien Shooter” on the internet. It is a game where you battle against
randomly drawn opponents where the reward of a battle is a “game ticket”. The probability
of Justin winning a battle is thought to be 0.4 .
 winning his 3rd battle on his first attempt
 winning his 5rd battle on his 2nd attempt
 winning his 6rd battle on his 2nd attempt
4. Determine the probability that the first reading to be taken will be on, or before, the th 7
house visit.
 7 readings in his first visits
 7 readings in his 2nd visits
 6 readings in his first visits
 5 readings in his 3rd visits