A

PROJECT REPORT
ON

“Disease Prediction Using Machine Learning”

Submitted By:
Aesha Patel (2512238200156)
Dhruvi Kadia (2512238200133)
Anand Parmar (2512238200149)

UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF

Prof. Dushyant Suryavanshi

Shri Govind Guru University – Godhra,

BACHELOR OF COMPUTER APPLICATION

SIGMA COLLAGE OF COMPUTER APPLICATION

 CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that Aesha Patel, Dhruvi Kadia, Anand Parmar has
successfully completed the project on “Disease Prediction Using
Machine Learning” as a partial fulfilment of his Bachelor of Computer
Applications (BCA) under the curriculum of Shri Govind Guru University
Godhra for the academic year 202225.

Prof.Dushyant Suryavanshi Dr. Khyati Bane Dr. Pankaj Dalal

Internal Guide HOD MCA Principal

Signature Signature
Name Name
Internal Examiner External Examiner
Date : Date :
 DECLARATION

This declaration is part of the project work entitled Disease Prediction Using
Machine Learning is submitted as part of academic requirement for 5th semester
of BCA.
We, Aesha Patel, Dhruvi Kadia, Anand Parmar Solely declare that,
1. We have not used any unfair means to complete the project.
2. We have followed the discipline and the rules of the organization where we
were doing the project.
3. We have not been part of any act which may impact the college reputation
adversely.
This Information we have given is true, complete and accurate. We
understand that failure to give truthful, incomplete and inaccurate information
may result in cancellation of my project work.

Aesha Patel
Dhruvi Kadia
Anand Parmar
 Acknowledgement

The success and final outcome of this project required a lot of guidance
and assistance from many people and we are extremely privileged to have got
this all along the completion of our project. All that we have done is only due to
such supervision and assistance and we would not forget to thank them.
We respect and thank our Head of Department Dr.Khyati Bane Mam and
all staff members of “Sigma Collage of Computer Application”. We express our
special thanks to Prof. Dushyant Suryavanshi (Project Guide) for providing us
an opportunity to do the project work and give us all support and guidance
which made us completes the project duty.
We owe a deep gratitude to our project guides for taking keen interest on
our project work and guiding us all along, till the completion of our project
work by providing all the necessary information for developing a good system.
We are thankful to and fortunate enough to get constant encouragement,
support and guidance from all teaching staff which helped us in successfully
completing our project work.

Yours Sincerely,
Aesha Patel
Dhruvi Kadia
Anand Parmar
 Abstract

Disease prediction using machine learning (ML) techniques has emerged as a

powerful tool in healthcare, offering potential for early diagnosis and
intervention. This approach leverages large datasets, such as medical records,
imaging, and genetic information, to build predictive models that can identify
patterns and relationships within the data. Algorithms like decision trees,
support vector machines, neural networks, and ensemble methods are
commonly employed to classify diseases, estimate risk factors, and predict
disease outcomes with high accuracy. The integration of machine learning in
disease prediction can enhance diagnostic efficiency, reduce human error, and
support personalized treatment plans. However, challenges such as data quality,
interpretability of models, and ethical considerations must be addressed for
successful implementation in clinical practice. Overall, ML-driven disease
prediction holds immense promise for improving public health outcomes and
optimizing healthcare delivery.
Table of Content
Sr. No Content Page No
Chapter 1: Introduction 1
1.1 Existing System 1
1.2 Need for the New System 2
1.3 Objective of the New System 3
1.4 Problem Definition 5
1.5 Core Components 5
1.6 Project Profile 7
1.7 Assumptions and Constraints 9
1.8 Advantages and Limitations of the Proposed 11
System
Chapter 2: Requirement Determination & Analysis 14
2.1 Requirement Determination 14
2.2 Targeted Users 16
Chapter 3: System Design 18
3.1 Use Case Diagram 18
3.2 Class Diagram 19
3.3 Interaction Diagram 20
3.4 Activity Diagram 22
3.5 Data Dictionary 23
Chapter 4: Development 25
4.1 Coding Standards 25
4.2 Screen Shots 31
Chapter 5: Agile Documentation 41
5.1 Agile Project Charter 41
5.2 Agile Roadmap / Schedule 42
5.3 Agile Project Plan 44
5.4 Agile User Story (Minimum 3 Tasks) 47
5.5 Agile Release Plan 45
5.6 Agile Sprint Backlog 51
5.7 Agile Test Plan 53
5.8 Earned value and burn charts 56
6 Chapter 6: Proposed Enhancements 59
7 Chapter 7: Conclusion 62
8 Chapter 8: Bibliography 63
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Chapter 1: Introduction

1.1 Existing System

My system is Disease prediction using machine learning is a transformative approach in healthcare that aims
to improve early diagnosis, enhance treatment plans, and ultimately save lives by identifying potential health
risks before they develop into serious conditions. In an existing system, integrating disease prediction models
can be done by leveraging electronic health records (EHR), wearable health data, genetic information, and
lifestyle factors to predict diseases based on past patterns and learned insights.

Key Components of a Disease Prediction System

1. Data Collection and Preprocessing:

• Gather patient data from EHRs, lab results, diagnostic images, and wearable devices.
• Clean and preprocess the data to handle missing values, outliers, and data inconsistencies.
• Normalize and standardize data as needed to prepare for machine learning models.

2. Feature Engineering:
• Identify and select relevant features such as age, gender, symptoms, blood tests, and imaging results.
• Extract additional features if required, for instance, calculating BMI from weight and height.
• Conduct feature selection to improve model performance by reducing irrelevant information.

3. Model Selection:
• Choose an appropriate machine learning model based on the data and disease type. Common models
include:
• Logistic Regression and Decision Trees for binary classification (e.g., predicting the
presence/absence of a disease).
• Random Forests and Support Vector Machines (SVMs) for more complex prediction tasks.
Neural Networks and Deep Learning models like CNNs for image based predictions (e.g., tumor
identification in medical images).
• For timeseries data from wearables, Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) or Long Short Term
Memory (LSTM) networks are effective.

4. Model Training and Testing:

Split the data into training, validation, and testing datasets.

• Train the selected model on historical data to learn patterns.

• Use cross validation techniques to assess model performance and avoid overfitting.

5. Evaluation Metrics:
• Evaluate the model using appropriate metrics like accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and
ROCAUC for classification tasks.

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• For regression tasks (e.g., predicting disease severity scores), use metrics like Mean Absolute Error
(MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE).
6. Integration into the Existing System:
• Deploy the model within an existing hospital management system, EHR system, or health app.
• Develop APIs or dashboards that allow healthcare providers to access predictions and insights.
• Continuously monitor model performance with real time data to ensure accuracy.

Disease Prediction Use Cases in Existing Systems

1. Heart Disease Prediction:
• Use patient data like cholesterol levels, age, blood pressure, and ECG results to predict the likelihood of
heart disease.

2. Diabetes Prediction:
• Analyse glucose levels, BMI, family history, and other risk factors to predict the likelihood of diabetes.

3. Cancer Detection:
• Leverage image data (e.g., X rays, CT scans) and employ CNN models to detect early signs of cancers
such as lung, breast, or skin cancer.

4. COVID19 Severity Prediction:

• Predict the severity of COVID19 infections using patient vital signs, medical history, and other lab
data.

5. Chronic Disease Management:

• Monitor wearable device data (e.g., heart rate, oxygen levels) to predict potential flareups in chronic
conditions like asthma or COPD.

❖ Challenges in Implementing Disease Prediction Systems

➢ Data Privacy and Security: Sensitive patient data needs robust security measures and compliance with
regulations like HIPAA.
➢ Data Quality and Diversity: Accurate predictions require high quality and diverse datasets to avoid
biases.
➢ Interpretability: Blackbox models can make it challenging for healthcare providers to understand
predictions, making interpretability important.

1.2 Need for the New System

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Predicting diseases using machine learning has become a promising area in healthcare, potentially
transforming diagnosis, early intervention, and treatment. However, there is a pressing need for advanced and

innovative systems to improve accuracy, interpretability, and adaptability across various health conditions.
Here are some considerations and approaches for building a more robust disease prediction system:

1. Data Collection and Quality

• Quality and Volume: A successful system requires access to large, highquality datasets that include a
diverse population, minimizing biases.
• Data Variety: Include different types of data (medical records, genetic information, lifestyle data,
imaging, etc.) for a comprehensive approach.
• Data Privacy and Security: Ensure compliance with privacy regulations (e.g., HIPAA, GDPR) and
use secure data handling processes to protect patient information.
2. Algorithm Selection
• Deep Learning: For complex data like medical imaging, deep learning models (e.g., CNNs) can
identify patterns that may be difficult for traditional algorithms.
• Gradient Boosting and Random Forests: These models work well with structured data and can handle
missing values effectively.
• Ensemble Learning: Combining several models can increase prediction accuracy and stability.
3. Explainability and Interpretability
• Explainable AI (XAI): Particularly important in healthcare; doctors need to understand why a model
makes a specific prediction to trust and validate it.
• Interpretable Models: Use methods like SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) or LIME (Local
Interpretable Model agnostic Explanations) to clarify model decisions.
4. Real time Data and Adaptive Learning
• Continuous Learning: Systems should adapt as new patient data becomes available, refining
predictions based on the latest information.

1.3 Objective of the New System

The objectives of a new machine learning based disease prediction system are centered around
improving healthcare outcomes, enhancing efficiency, and personalizing patient care. Here’s a breakdown of
the primary objectives for implementing this system:

1. Early Detection of Diseases

• Objective: Identify diseases in their earliest stages, often before symptoms appear, to enable timely
intervention and improve patient outcomes.
• Benefit: Early detection can significantly reduce the severity of diseases and lead to better longterm
prognosis, especially for conditions like cancer, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases.

2. Enhanced Diagnostic Accuracy

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• Objective: Leverage machine learning to analyse large and complex datasets for precise diagnosis,
reducing human error and inconsistencies.
• Benefit: Improved accuracy in disease prediction reduces misdiagnoses and helps clinicians make
well informed decisions for effective treatment plans.

3. Personalized Medicine and Risk Assessment

• Objective: Use patient specific data to deliver personalized predictions based on genetic, lifestyle,
and medical history, identifying individuals at higher risk for particular diseases.
• Benefit: Personalization ensures that patients receive tailored healthcare interventions, improving
treatment effectiveness and reducing unnecessary testing or treatments.

4. Efficient Use of Healthcare Resources

• Objective: Streamline the diagnostic process by automating parts of disease prediction, thereby
reducing the workload for healthcare providers.
• Benefit: Efficiency allows healthcare providers to manage larger patient volumes with better
allocation of time and resources, leading to cost savings and a more productive healthcare system.

5. Continuous Learning and Adaptation

• Objective: Ensure that the system continuously learns from new data, refining its predictive
capabilities to adapt to emerging diseases and evolving medical knowledge.
• Benefit: Adaptable systems stay relevant and improve over time, allowing for predictive insights that
remain accurate as new health data and medical advancements emerge.

6. Improved Preventive Care and Population Health Management

• Objective: Use predictive insights to inform preventive care strategies and manage population health
by identifying at risk groups.
• Benefit: Proactive, data
• driven preventive care can reduce the overall disease burden, improving public health outcomes
while easing the demand on healthcare systems.

7. Enhancing Patient Engagement and Empowerment

• Objective: Provide patients with insights into their health risks, empowering them to take preventive
actions and participate actively in their health management.
• Benefit: Engaged patients are more likely to adopt healthier lifestyles and adhere to preventive
measures, potentially reducing disease prevalence.

8. Data Driven Decision Support for Clinicians

• Objective: Equip healthcare professionals with reliable data driven insights that assist in complex
decision making, especially for high risk cases.
• Benefit: Clinicians can make faster, more confident decisions backed by data, ensuring that patient
care is both informed and effective.

9. Facilitate Research and Development in Healthcare

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• Objective: Aggregate and analyse anonymized patient data to support medical research, drug
discovery, and the development of new treatment protocols.
• Benefit: Insights generated can accelerate scientific discoveries and enhance the understanding of
disease mechanisms, paving the way for new treatments and interventions.

10. Ensure Compliance with Data Security and Privacy Standards

• Objective: Protect patient data through robust security measures and comply with healthcare
regulations (such as HIPAA, GDPR).
• Benefit: Ensuring patient data privacy fosters trust in the system, which is essential for widespread
adoption and ethical data use.

1.4 Problem Definition

Using machine learning (ML) for disease prediction is becoming increasingly essential as
healthcare systems seek efficient and accurate methods to predict and diagnose diseases early. Traditional
healthcare systems rely heavily on manual diagnosis, which can be time consuming, prone to error, and
sometimes inefficient for large populations. Machine learning offers a way to automate and enhance these
processes, bringing several benefits to a modern healthcare system. Here's why and how a new ML based
system could be transformative

1.5 Core Components

To develop an effective machine learning based disease prediction system, several core components
are essential. These components work together to create a pipeline that can process raw patient data, generate
predictions, and provide actionable insights for healthcare providers.

❖ Core Components of a Disease Prediction System Using Machine Learning

1. Data Collection and Integration

• Description: This component gathers data from various sources, such as electronic health records
(EHRs), medical imaging, wearable devices, lab results, patient histories, and genetic data.
• Purpose: By aggregating diverse data sources, the system can create a comprehensive view of each
patient's health profile, improving prediction accuracy.
• Challenges: Ensuring data quality, managing inconsistent data formats, and integrating unstructured
data like clinical notes are common obstacles.

2. Data Preprocessing and Cleaning

• Description: Raw data often contains errors, inconsistencies, or missing values that need to be
addressed before feeding it into ML models. Preprocessing steps include handling missing values,
normalizing or standardizing data, and removing irrelevant or noisy data.
• Purpose: Clean and consistent data enhances model performance and ensures that predictions are
based on accurate information.
• Challenges: Dealing with incomplete patient records, balancing classes for diseases with lower
prevalence, and transforming unstructured data are typical challenges.

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3. Feature Engineering and Selection

• Description: Feature engineering involves extracting relevant features from the data, such as age,
BMI, family history, blood pressure, or genetic markers. Feature selection techniques then identify
the most informative features to reduce complexity and improve prediction accuracy.
• Purpose: Extracting the right features helps the model focus on the most significant variables, making
predictions more accurate and computationally efficient.
• Challenges: Determining the most relevant features for different diseases and avoiding irrelevant or
redundant features can be challenging, especially when working with high dimensional data.

4. Model Selection and Training

• Description: The system needs to select and train suitable machine learning models, such as logistic
regression, random forests, support vector machines (SVMs), and deep learning models (e.g.,
convolutional neural networks for imaging data).
• Purpose: Different diseases may require different types of models based on the complexity of the data
and the prediction goals.
• Challenges: Choosing the right model architecture, tuning hyperparameters, and managing
computational resources for model training can be complex, especially with large datasets.

5. Model Validation and Evaluation

• Description: This component tests model performance on unseen data to ensure it generalizes well to
new patients. Common evaluation metrics include accuracy, precision, recall, F1score, AUCROC,
and specificity.
• Purpose: Validating the model ensures reliability and measures how well it performs in real world
scenarios.
• Challenges: Avoiding overfitting, managing imbalanced datasets, and ensuring high sensitivity and
specificity (especially for critical conditions) are common challenges.

6. Deployment and Integration

• Description: Once the model is trained and validated, it needs to be deployed in a healthcare setting,
often as part of an existing EHR system or clinical decision support system (CDSS). This requires a
scalable infrastructure that can handle real time data input and output.
• Purpose: Deployment allows healthcare providers to access predictions in real time, integrating
predictive insights into their workflow.
• Challenges: Ensuring system interoperability with existing healthcare IT infrastructure, meeting
performance requirements, and handling high volumes of requests are key considerations.

7. Continuous Learning and Model Updating

• Description: Disease prediction models need to be updated regularly as new data becomes available.
Continuous learning mechanisms enable the model to incorporate new patient data and adapt to
evolving healthcare knowledge.
• Purpose: Updating the model ensures that predictions remain accurate and relevant, even as medical
understanding and patient demographics change.
• Challenges: Developing strategies for incremental learning, avoiding catastrophic forgetting, and
managing version control for model updates can be technically demanding.

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8. Interpretability and Explainability Module

• Description: This component provides explanations for the model’s predictions, helping healthcare
providers understand the reasoning behind each result. Techniques like SHAP (Shapley Additive
Explanations) or LIME (Local Interpretable ModelAgnostic Explanations) are often used.
• Purpose: Interpretability is critical in healthcare to ensure that providers trust the system and can
communicate its findings effectively to patients.
• Challenges: Balancing model complexity with interpretability, especially for deep learning models,
and ensuring explanations are understandable to nonexperts are common issues.

9. Patient Privacy and Data Security

• Description: The system must ensure that patient data is stored, processed, and shared securely,
adhering to privacy laws like HIPAA (in the U.S.) and GDPR (in the EU).
• Purpose: Secure handling of sensitive health data is essential to protect patient privacy and build trust
in the system.
• Challenges: Implementing encryption, access control, and anonymization techniques, and ensuring
compliance with regulations are major security challenges.

10. User Interface and Reporting Tools

• Description: The user interface (UI) is designed for healthcare providers to interact with the system,
view predictions, and access interpretative insights. Reports can include visualizations, risk scores,
and personalized recommendations.
• Purpose: A clear and intuitive UI improves usability and enables healthcare providers to make
informed decisions based on model predictions.
• Challenges: Designing a UI that conveys complex predictive insights in a user friendly way and
adapting it to different clinical environments are important considerations.

1.6 Project Profile

A project on disease prediction using machine learning aims to develop a predictive model that can analyse
patient data to predict the likelihood of various diseases. This type of project often leverages historical
medical data, including symptoms, demographics, lifestyle, and lab results, to identify patterns associated
with specific health conditions. Here’s a comprehensive overview for a project profile.

Project Title: Disease Prediction using Machine Learning

Project Overview
The goal of this project is to build a machine learning model that can predict the likelihood of specific
diseases in individuals based on their health data. This model can be useful in early diagnosis, preventive
healthcare, and personalized treatment planning. By analysing various patient parameters, the model aims to
assist healthcare professionals in making faster, data driven decisions.
Objectives
1. To analyse and preprocess health data for effective disease prediction.

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2. To build, train, and optimize machine learning models capable of accurately predicting disease risk.
3. To evaluate the performance of various machine learning algorithms.
4. To provide a framework for incorporating new data to improve prediction accuracy over time.

Scope of the Project

The project can be applied to predict multiple diseases, such as:
• Heart Disease
• Diabetes
• Liver Disease
• Cancer
• COVID19 or Infectious Diseases

Tools and Technologies

• Programming Language: Python or R
• Libraries: Scikit Learn, TensorFlow, Keras, Pandas, NumPy, Matplotlib, Seaborn
• Data Preprocessing: Feature selection, data cleaning, normalization
• Modelling: Logistic Regression, Decision Trees, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines (SVM),
Neural Networks
• Evaluation Metrics: Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1 Score, AUCROC

Data Collection
• Publicly available health datasets: Kaggle, UCI Machine Learning Repository, WHO health data
• Patient features: Symptoms, age, gender, lifestyle factors, medical history, genetic data, etc.

Methodology
1. Data Collection and Cleaning: Gather relevant health datasets and perform data cleaning to handle
missing or inconsistent values.
2. Data Preprocessing: Feature scaling, encoding categorical variables, and splitting the dataset into
training and testing sets.
3. Model Selection: Experiment with various machine learning models and select the most appropriate
one(s).
4. Model Training and Testing: Train models on the training set and test on the validation set.
5. Evaluation: Measure model accuracy and finetune using cross validation techniques.
6. Deployment: Develop a user friendly interface or dashboard for medical professionals or users to
input data and receive predictions.

Expected Outcome
A functional machine learning model that can accurately predict the likelihood of diseases, potentially
helping in early diagnosis and improved patient outcomes. The system may also offer visual insights into risk
factors, allowing healthcare providers to make more informed decisions.

Challenges

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• Data Imbalance: Many medical datasets may have an imbalanced distribution, with fewer positive
cases.
• Data Privacy: Ensuring patient data privacy and complying with healthcare regulations.
• Generalization: Ensuring the model generalizes well across different populations.

Applications
• Clinical Decision Support: Assisting healthcare providers in diagnosis.
• Preventive Health Screening: Identifying at risk patients early on.
• Patient Monitoring: Monitoring patients over time to track disease progression.

This project could lead to impactful contributions in healthcare, especially in preventive care, and may also
serve as a foundational step toward developing more complex AI based diagnostic systems.

1.7 Assumptions and Constraints

When designing a disease prediction model using machine learning, we need to set clear
assumptions and constraints to define the problem scope and manage challenges in real world deployment.
Below are some common assumptions and constraints for disease prediction:

Assumptions

1. Data Quality: The model assumes that input data (like medical history, lab tests, symptoms, etc.) is
accurate, up to date, and complete. Poor quality or missing data may lead to inaccurate predictions.

2. Data Representativeness: The training dataset should be representative of the population the model
will serve. This includes demographic diversity (age, gender, ethnicity) and a variety of health
conditions.

3. Correlation to Disease: The model assumes that certain features, such as lab values, symptoms, or
patient history, have a measurable correlation with the disease. This correlation forms the basis for
accurate predictions.

4. Data Privacy Compliance: It is assumed that the data complies with privacy regulations (e.g.,
HIPAA, GDPR), ensuring that sensitive patient information is handled securely and ethically.

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5. Stationarity: The assumption that the features and distribution of disease related data do not change
drastically over time. This is important for models that are deployed long term.

6. Limitations of Model Interpretability: The model may be a “black box” (e.g., deep learning models),
and it is assumed that stakeholders understand that high accuracy may come at the cost of
interpretability.

7. Generalization Capability: The model assumes it can generalize well to unseen data from the same
distribution as the training set. For example, a model trained on data from one region is assumed to
perform well in other similar regions.
➢ Constraints

1. Data Availability and Size: Data availability is often a constraint, especially for rare diseases, where
limited data makes training accurate models challenging.

2. Computational Power: Some models, like deep learning, require high computational resources.
Limited computing power might necessitate simpler models or smaller data samples.

3. Model Interpretability Requirements: In healthcare, interpretability is crucial. Models that are too
complex may be less interpretable, making it challenging to provide clear explanations for
predictions.

4. Real time Prediction: Some applications may require real time or nearreal time predictions, which
limits the complexity of the models that can be used.

5. Regularization to Prevent Overfitting: With complex models, there is a risk of overfitting, especially
when training on small datasets. This requires careful regularization techniques to ensure
generalizability.

6. Bias and Fairness: Disease prediction models may have bias due to imbalanced data, which can lead
to unfair predictions across different demographic groups. Fairness constraints must be applied to
prevent such issues.

7. Feature Availability: Not all features may be available at prediction time due to constraints like cost
or patient privacy, necessitating the use of limited or proxy features.

8. Clinical Validation: The model must be clinically validated before being used in real life scenarios,
which can be time consuming and may require collaboration with healthcare professionals.

9. Cost Constraints: The cost of collecting certain features, like advanced imaging or genetic tests, may
limit the use of high cost features in prediction.

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10. Scalability: The model must be able to scale to large healthcare systems if deployed widely, which
may limit the complexity of the model or necessitate infrastructure investments.

By defining these assumptions and constraints, machine learning practitioners can design disease prediction
models that are both effective and feasible for real world applications.

1.8 Advantages and Limitations of the Proposed System

Using machine learning (ML) for disease prediction offers significant advantages but also comes with certain
limitations. Here’s an overview of the key pros and cons of a disease prediction system based on ML:

❖ Advantages

1. Early Detection and Prevention: ML models can identify patterns and risk factors associated with
diseases, allowing for early diagnosis or even preventive measures before the onset of symptoms.
This can improve patient outcomes and reduce the burden on healthcare systems.

2. Personalized Treatment Plans: By analysing individual patient data, such as genetic information,
lifestyle, and medical history, ML can help predict which treatments might be most effective for
specific individuals, supporting personalized medicine.

3. Efficient Data Analysis: ML models can analyse vast amounts of complex medical data more quickly
than human experts. This efficiency enables clinicians to process data more rapidly, leading to faster
diagnosis and treatment.

4. Improved Diagnostic Accuracy: ML models, particularly those trained on large datasets, can improve
diagnostic accuracy by reducing human error and offering a consistent evaluation process, which can
be particularly valuable in complex cases.

5. Resource Optimization: By predicting disease likelihood, ML can help healthcare providers allocate
resources more effectively, prioritizing high risk patients and optimizing the use of expensive
diagnostic tests and treatments.

6. Continuous Learning and Adaptability: Many ML models can be retrained on new data, which allows
them to adapt to emerging medical knowledge, new diseases, or shifting patient demographics,
keeping them relevant over time.

7. Remote and Accessible Care: ML driven disease prediction can be integrated into digital health apps,
providing patients with preliminary assessments and recommendations. This increases accessibility,
especially in underserved or remote areas.

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❖ Limitations

1. Data Quality and Availability: ML models depend heavily on highquality, comprehensive datasets. In
many cases, data may be incomplete, unbalanced, or biased, affecting model accuracy and fairness.

2. Risk of Overfitting: Overfitting is common in healthcare datasets, especially when they are small or
have many features. Overfit models may perform well on training data but fail to generalize to new
data, leading to poor predictions.

3. Interpretability Challenges: Many ML models, especially deep learning models, are complex and can
act as “black boxes.” In healthcare, understanding the basis of predictions is critical, so the lack of
interpretability can limit model acceptance among clinicians.

4. Ethical and Privacy Concerns: Handling sensitive patient data raises concerns about privacy and data
security. Strict regulations (like HIPAA, GDPR) must be followed, and noncompliance can lead to
legal issues and loss of patient trust.

5. Bias and Fairness: Models trained on biased data can reinforce healthcare disparities by making less
accurate predictions for certain demographic groups. Ensuring fairness across different populations is
a major challenge.

6. Clinical Validation Requirements: ML models must be clinically validated before they can be trusted
in real world applications. This validation process is time consuming, costly, and often requires
extensive collaboration with healthcare professionals.

7. Dependency on Feature Availability: Some models require specific features, such as lab test results
or genetic data, which may not be available for all patients due to cost or accessibility issues. This
can limit the model’s applicability.

8. Dynamic Nature of Diseases: Diseases and treatment responses evolve over time, and new diseases
may emerge. Models need frequent updating, but retraining is not always feasible, leading to
potential obsolescence.

9. Potential for Misdiagnosis: An incorrect prediction can lead to misdiagnosis or delayed treatment,
causing harm to patients. Clinicians still need to review ML outputs carefully rather than rely solely
on the system’s predictions.

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10. High Development and Maintenance Costs: Building and maintaining ML based disease prediction
systems can be costly due to the need for data storage, computing power, retraining, and ongoing
monitoring to ensure performance.

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14 Chapter 2: Requirement Determination & Analysis

2.1 Requirement Determination

When developing a disease prediction system using machine learning (ML), clearly defining the
requirements and understanding the key factors for successful deployment is essential. Here’s a breakdown of
the requirements and determination process
❖ Requirements

1. Data Requirements:
• Diverse and High Quality Data: The model needs access to diverse, high quality patient data. This
includes structured data (e.g., medical history, lab tests) and possibly unstructured data (e.g., doctor’s
notes, imaging).

• Representative Samples: To avoid bias, the dataset should represent the target population’s
demographics, such as age, gender, and ethnicity, as well as a variety of health conditions.

• Feature Selection: Identifying relevant features is crucial. This might include age, family history,
symptoms, lab results, lifestyle factors, and genetic data, depending on the disease.

• Data Privacy and Security: Complying with privacy regulations (e.g., HIPAA, GDPR) is a
requirement to protect sensitive patient information, necessitating data anonymization, encryption,
and secure storage.

2. Model Requirements:
• Choice of Algorithms: Selecting an appropriate algorithm based on the type and volume of data.
Options include logistic regression, decision trees, ensemble methods (like Random Forest), or deep
learning models for complex data.

• Accuracy and Performance Metrics: Defining acceptable performance metrics, such as accuracy,
precision, recall, F1 score, or AUCROC, tailored to the specific disease’s impact.

• Interpretability: Depending on the disease and endusers (e.g., clinicians), the model may need to be
interpretable. For instance, simpler models (like logistic regression) are easier to interpret, while
complex models may require posthoc explanation tools.

• Generalizability: The model should generalize well to new, unseen data from the same population.
Regularization techniques and cross validation can help ensure that the model avoids overfitting.

3. System Requirements:
• Computational Infrastructure: For large datasets or complex algorithms (e.g., deep learning), the
system needs sufficient computational resources, such as GPUs and high performance CPUs.
• Real time or Batch Processing: Depending on use cases, the system should either provide real time
predictions (e.g., in emergency care) or operate in batch mode (e.g., predicting risk for routine
checkups).
• Integration with Existing Systems: The model should integrate with electronic health records (EHR)
and other clinical systems, allowing seamless access to patient data for predictions.
• Scalability: The system should be scalable to handle increasing numbers of patients and larger
datasets over time, especially if deployed in large healthcare networks.

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4. Validation and Compliance Requirements:

• Clinical Validation: The model must be clinically validated to prove it can produce accurate
predictions and support healthcare decisions safely. This requires collaboration with healthcare
professionals.
• Compliance and Regulatory Approval: The model must meet health regulatory standards (e.g., FDA
in the U.S.) for AI/ML based medical devices, especially if it will be used to make diagnostic or
treatment related decisions.

5. User Requirements:
• User Interface (UI): A user friendly UI is essential for clinicians to interact with the system. This
might include clear visualization of predictions, confidence scores, and interpretability features.
• Feedback Mechanism: Allowing clinicians to provide feedback on predictions can improve model
accuracy over time and help the system learn from real world outcomes.
• Training and Support: Providing training for clinicians and support staff on how to use the system
effectively and interpret predictions appropriately.

Determination Process

1. Problem Definition and Scope:

• Determine the specific disease(s) the system will focus on and clarify the purpose (e.g., risk
assessment, early diagnosis, or treatment recommendation). This helps set clear boundaries for data
collection, feature selection, and model design.

2. Data Collection and Preprocessing:

• Collect and preprocess data from multiple sources, ensuring quality control through cleaning,
normalization, handling missing values, and feature engineering.
• Apply techniques such as data augmentation or synthetic data generation if data is limited.

3. Feature Selection and Engineering:

• Determine which features are most predictive for the disease in question. This might involve domain
experts’ input, correlation analysis, or feature selection methods like Lasso regression or recursive
feature elimination.

4. Model Selection and Training:

• Choose the algorithm(s) that best meet the problem’s needs based on data type and computational
constraints. Train the model using cross validation to ensure generalizability.

5. Evaluation and Validation:

• Evaluate the model with appropriate metrics (e.g., precision, recall) and validate with a test dataset.
Perform clinical validation if possible, collaborating with healthcare professionals to validate in real
clinical settings.

6. Deployment and Monitoring:

• Deploy the model, typically on secure cloud servers or healthcare systems, and monitor its
performance over time. Establish a pipeline for regular updates to keep the model accurate with new
data.
• Implement a feedback loop for continuous improvement, allowing model retraining based on
feedback from clinicians and real world outcomes.

7. Ethics and Compliance Assessment:

• Conduct a thorough review to ensure the system meets ethical standards for fairness, privacy, and
transparency. Confirm regulatory compliance if needed.

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2.2 Targeted Users

In a disease prediction system using machine learning, identifying targeted users helps shape the
system’s design, functionality, and usability. Here’s a breakdown of the primary users who would benefit
from such a system:

1. Healthcare Providers (Clinicians, Doctors, and Nurses)

• Purpose: Healthcare providers use disease prediction models to identify at risk patients, support early
diagnosis, and improve treatment planning.
• Usage: Clinicians may use the system during patient consultations to assess risk factors and make
more informed clinical decisions. For instance, a primary care doctor could use it to screen for
cardiovascular disease risk based on patient data.
• Requirements: They need a user friendly interface, interpretability of predictions, and high accuracy,
as well as access to confidence scores and relevant feature explanations.
• Benefit: Enables providers to intervene earlier, allocate resources effectively, and deliver
personalized care.

2. Public Health Organizations and Policymakers

• Purpose: These organizations aim to monitor public health trends, plan resource allocation, and
implement preventative health strategies on a larger scale.
• Usage: Disease prediction models help in predicting population level risks, identifying high risk
regions, and planning resource distribution. For example, public health officials can predict the
spread of infectious diseases or chronic conditions in specific populations.
• Requirements: They need aggregated and anonymized insights, customizable reports, and scalability
to handle large populations, often at the regional or national level.
• Benefit: Allows public health bodies to deploy resources proactively, reduce disease burden, and
implement preventive measures in high risk areas.

3. Patients and Individuals

• Purpose: Patients and individuals can use disease prediction tools to understand personal health risks
and manage preventive care.
• Usage: Individuals might use self assessment tools or apps integrated with wearable devices to assess
risks for diseases like diabetes or heart disease. They might also receive recommendations based on
personalized data such as lifestyle and health history.
• Requirements: Patients require simplified risk assessments, actionable insights, and privacy
protection for personal health data. The system should be easy to use and not require advanced
medical knowledge.
• Benefit: Empowers patients to make informed health decisions, engage in preventive actions, and
potentially improve health outcomes through early intervention.

4. Medical Researchers and Data Scientists

• Purpose: Researchers and data scientists use disease prediction systems to analyse trends, validate
hypotheses, and explore the effectiveness of various treatments and interventions.

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• Usage: They may work on expanding the model’s capabilities, enhancing accuracy, or adapting it for
specific diseases. Researchers can analyse model outcomes, validate findings, and contribute to
improvements.
• Requirements: Researchers need access to raw and processed data, model details, interpretability
tools, and adjustable algorithms to test hypotheses.
• Benefit: Contributes to the improvement of disease prediction accuracy, identification of new risk
factors, and the advancement of medical research.

5. Insurance Companies and Healthcare Payers

• Purpose: Insurers and healthcare payers use disease prediction to assess individual health risks, tailor
coverage plans, and predict future healthcare costs.
• Usage: They may use prediction systems to offer personalized health insurance plans, incentivize
preventive care, or adjust premiums based on risk levels. Disease prediction can also help predict
claims risk and anticipate high cost patients.
• Requirements: Insurers require deidentified patient risk scores, insights into cost predictions, and
compliance with privacy standards to protect sensitive information.
• Benefit: Helps insurers optimize plans, offer incentives for preventive health actions, and manage
costs more effectively.

6. Hospital Administrators and Healthcare Managers

• Purpose: Hospital administrators use disease prediction systems for operational management,
resource planning, and improving quality of care.
• Usage: Prediction models help forecast patient admission rates, assess disease burden on facilities,
and allocate resources like staffing and equipment based on anticipated demand.
• Requirements: Administrators need user friendly dashboards, real time data integration, and
predictive insights to anticipate hospital needs accurately.
• Benefit: Helps hospitals operate more efficiently, reduce waiting times, and ensure resources are
available for patients who need them most.

7. Technology Companies Developing Health Apps

• Purpose: Technology companies may integrate disease prediction models into health and wellness
apps, offering users tools to monitor and manage health risks.
• Usage: Health app developers may include features for risk assessment, health tracking, or lifestyle
recommendations, often connected to wearables or health monitoring devices.
• Requirements: They need models that are optimized for mobile, scalable, easy to integrate, and
secure for consumer use.
• Benefit: Allows companies to offer valuable health insights to a broad audience, increasing user
engagement and potentially improving public health outcomes.

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Chapter 3: System Design

3.1 Use Case Diagram

This diagram represents a high level overview of a "Diabetes Prediction System" using an artificial neural
network (ANN) algorithm. Here’s a brief description of each component and its interactions:

1. User: The end user interacts with the system through an Android application interface.

2. Android Application: The application allows the user to input their data, which is then sent to the
diabetes prediction system for analysis.

3. Diabetes Prediction System: The system includes the following components:

• ANN Algorithm: This algorithm processes the user's data and trains a model specifically for
diabetes prediction.

• Trained Model: After training, the model uses input data to generate prediction results.

4. Admin: An administrator interacts with the system to manage or retrain the ANN model as needed.

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5. Prediction Results: The results of the prediction are sent back to the Android application, allowing
the user to view them.

3.2 Class Diagram

This diagram illustrates the process of a machine learning pipeline involving multiple classifiers for
generating a final prediction. Here's a breakdown of each component:

1. Dataset: The starting point, which contains all the data needed for training, testing, and validation.

2. Data Splitting:

• Train Data: 80% of the dataset is used for training. This data goes through preprocessing (e.g.,
cleaning, normalization) and splitting to prepare it for model training.

• Test Data: 20% of the dataset is reserved for testing, used later to evaluate model performance.

• Validation Data: A separate subset for validating the model predictions after training.

3. Model Training:
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• K Fold Cross Validation: Applied to the training data for model selection and hyperparameter tuning.

• Three classifiers are trained in parallel:

1. SVM (Support Vector Machine) Classifier

2. Naive Bayes Classifier

3. Random Forest Classifier

4.Evaluation:

• Each classifier is tested on the test data to compute performance metrics, allowing for

3.3 Interaction Diagram

This flowchart represents a machine learning workflow for a medical diagnosis or prediction system,
focusing on data preprocessing, training, and model evaluation. Here’s a step by step breakdown:

1. Start: The beginning of the process.

2. Import Patient Documents: Collects patient related data or documents for analysis.

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3. Import Database: Loads the data into a structured database.

4. Data Missing ?: Checks if there is any missing data in the dataset.

• Yes: If data is missing, proceed to Fill the missing data step, followed by Analyse the dataset.

• No: If no data is missing, proceed directly to Analyse the dataset.

5. Analyse the Dataset: Reviews the data quality and distributions to prepare it for training and testing.

6. Data Splitting:

• Train Data: Data used for training the machine learning model.

• Test Data: Data used for evaluating model performance.

7. Machine Learning Algorithm: Applies an algorithm to train a Proposed Model on the training data.

8. Check Accuracy Score: Measures the performance of the trained model on the test data.

• If the Accuracy Score is Acceptable: If the accuracy score meets the predefined threshold,
proceed to the next step, Deploy the Model.

• If the Accuracy Score is Not Acceptable: If the accuracy score is below the threshold, return to
Machine Learning Algorithm to tune parameters, try different algorithms, or improve data
preprocessing.

9. Deploy the Model: If the model meets accuracy requirements, it can be deployed for real
world medical diagnostics or predictions.

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3.4 Activity Diagram

The flowchart you've provided shows a system for plant disease detection that utilizes a mobile
interface for farmers or extension officers. Here’s a breakdown of each step in the process:

1. Mobile Interface: A farmer or extension officer uses a mobile device with a dedicated
application or interface.

2. Take/Upload a Picture: The user can take a new photo or upload an existing one of the
plant they want analysed.

3. Disease Detection Model: The system uses a disease detection model (likely an AI or
machine learning model) to analyse the image.

4. Disease Detected Feedback: If a disease is detected, feedback is provided to inform the

user about the disease.

5. Disease Detected Percent (%) Feedback: The system also provides a confidence level, or
probability percentage, indicating the likelihood that the detected disease is accurate.

6. This system would help farmers quickly identify potential diseases in their crops and
understand the severity or confidence level of the diagnosis.

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3.5 Data Dictionary

This flowchart represents a highlevel overview of a disease prediction system using machine learning. Here’s
a breakdown of each component:

1. Training Data: This is the initial dataset that contains historical records and features, which will be used
to train the machine learning model.

2. Data Transformation: Raw data from the training set is processed and transformed to be suitable for
machine learning algorithms. This step may include cleaning, normalization, feature selection, and
encoding categorical variables.

3. Processed Data: The transformed data is now in a format ready for use in model training.

4. Machine Learning Algorithms: Various machine learning algorithms are applied to the processed data to
create a model that can predict disease based on symptoms and other features.

5. Disease Prediction Model: This model is the output of the machine learning algorithms and is used to
make predictions on new data.

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6. User Details and User Input (Symptoms): For new predictions, userprovided details and symptom data
serve as inputs to the model.

7. Predicted Result: The disease prediction model outputs a result based on the input symptoms, providing a
predicted diagnosis or probability of a disease.

This flowchart illustrates a supervised learning workflow where historical data informs the predictions made
for new user inputs.

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Chapter 4: Development
4.1 Coding Standards

To ensure the maintainability and readability of the code for the Image Explorer application, the following
coding standards were adhered to

A. manage.py (Python):

The backend is built using Flask and handles the following tasks

● Rendering the main HTML template

● Receiving user inputs from the form
● Sending requests to the Stability API
● Displaying the generated image on the webpage
● Handling the response and saving the generated image

1. main() Function
• OS.ENVIRON.SETDEFAULT(): This line sets the DJANGO_SETTINGS_MODULE environment
variable if it hasn’t been set already. The DJANGO_SETTINGS_MODULE tells Django where to find
the settings configuration for your project. In this case, it is pointing to
DISEASE_PREDICTION.SETTINGS.

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• The code attempts to import EXECUTE_FROM_COMMAND_LINE from

DJANGO.CORE.MANAGEMENT. This is the function responsible for executing Django
management commands.
• If DIANGOS is not installed or there is an issue with the environment, it raises an IMPORTERROR
with a custom error message, suggesting that you may need to install Django or activate your
virtual environment.

• This function runs the command passed from the command line (i.e., the arguments stored in
SYS.ARGV). For example, it can handle python manage.py runserver or python manage.py
migrate commands.

3. if _name_ == '_main_':

• This ensures that the main() function will run when this script is executed directly (like running
python manage.py from the terminal).
•

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B. Style.css(CSS)
• The styles.css file contains the styles for the main application page. Key design elements include

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4.2 Screen Shots

Project Scope (Predico)

• The disease prediction system have 3 users such as doctor, patient and admin.
• Each user of the system are authenticated by the system.
• There is a role based access to the system.
• The system allows the patient to give symptoms and according to those
symptoms the system will predict a disease.
• The system suggests doctors for predicted diseases.
• The system allows online consultation for patients.
• The system helps the patients to consult the doctor at their convenience by
sitting at home.

TECHNOLOGY USED

❖ Front end: HTML, CSS, Bootstrap, Java script, Jquery

❖ Back end: Django (pythonbased web framework)
❖ Database: PostgreSQL
❖ Tools: Pg My admin, Orange

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Architecture of the System

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Data collection

Data collection has been done from the internet to identify the disease here the real symptoms of the
disease are collected i.e. no dummy values are entered.

The symptoms of the disease are collected from kaggle.com and different health related websites. This
csv file contain 5000 rows of record of the patients with their symptoms (132 types of different
symptoms) and their corresponding disease (40 class of general disease).

Some rows of disease with their corresponding symptoms in the dataset are -

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Webpages
❖ Homepage-

❖ Login Modal-

❖ Login as Patient-

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❖ Patient UI-

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❖ Feedback Form-

❖ Check Disease- Entering symptoms

❖ Predictions-

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❖ Consult a Doctor-

❖ Consultation UI-

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❖ Consultation history- (Doctor)

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❖ Admin Sign in-

❖ Admin Interface-

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Database Prediction

❖ Users table-

❖ Patient table-

❖ Consultation table-

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Chapter 5: Agile Documentation

5.1 Agile Project Charter

Predicting diseases using machine learning within an agile project involves a structured and iterative
approach, where teams continuously improve models and adapt to feedback. Here’s how you might
approach this within an agile framework:

1) Project Definition and Planning:

• Objective: Define the specific diseases to predict (e.g., diabetes, heart disease) and clarify
goals.
• Data Requirements: Identify datasets (clinical, lab results, genetic data) needed for training
models.
• Initial Backlog Creation: Break down the project into user stories (e.g., data preprocessing,
model selection, evaluation).
• Sprints Setup: Plan sprints (usually 2–3 weeks) with milestones like data acquisition, feature
engineering, model training, etc.

2) Sprint 1: Data Collection and Exploration:

• User Stories:
i) Collect and prepare the dataset for the target diseases.
ii) Explore data quality, missing values, and understand feature distributions.
• Tasks:
i) Data cleaning, handling missing values, and exploratory data analysis (EDA).
ii) Generate reports on the dataset’s properties and distribute to team members.
• Review:
i) Present insights to stakeholders for feedback on the data’s relevance.

3) Sprint 2: Feature Engineering and Selection:

• User Stories:
i) Generate features that help improve model accuracy.
ii) Identify key predictive features.
• Tasks:
i) Feature engineering (creating age groups, combining health metrics).
ii) Feature selection using methods like correlation analysis, recursive feature elimination.
• Review:
i) Evaluate the effect of engineered features on preliminary model accuracy.

4) Sprint 3: Model Selection and Development:

• User Stories:
i) Develop baseline models (e.g., logistic regression, decision trees).
ii) Experiment with more advanced models (e.g., neural networks, ensemble methods).
• Tasks:
i) Train and evaluate different models using cross validation.
ii) Finetune hyperparameters and evaluate performance on validation data.
• Review:
i) Select models showing the best performance and discuss improvements.

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5) Sprint 4: Model Evaluation and Testing:

• User Stories:
i) Evaluate the selected models on test datasets to check generalization.
ii) Analyse model biases and errors.
• Tasks:
i) Use metrics like accuracy, F1score, AUCROC to assess model performance.
ii) Error analysis and bias detection.
• Review:
i) Confirm model accuracy with stakeholders and discuss adjustments.

6) Sprint 5: Model Deployment and Feedback Integration:

• User Stories:
i) Deploy the best performing model in a real world or test environment.
ii) Gather feedback on predictions and model usability.
• Tasks:
i) Deploy using appropriate frameworks (e.g., Flask for APIs).
ii) Gather real world data and monitor the model’s ongoing performance.
• Review:
i) Gather user feedback, evaluate model success in deployment, and plan iterations.

7) Continuous Improvement and Iteration:

• In agile, iterations are essential; feedback from deployments is used to enhance models
further.
• Adjust feature sets, incorporate new data, or finetune models based on real world
performance.

8) Key Agile Principles in Disease Prediction ML Project:

• Continuous Collaboration: Keep stakeholders engaged to refine requirements.
• Iterative Development: Each sprint ends with an improved model or process.
• Adaptive Planning: Respond to changes in requirements, data, and model performance.
• Simplicity: Focus on delivering a minimal viable product (MVP) initially, then improve.

5.2 Agile Roadmap / Schedule

Here's a roadmap for a disease prediction project using machine learning within an agile framework.
This roadmap outlines the sequence of activities across sprints, aiming to deliver an accurate and
deployable predictive model incrementally.

Roadmap for Disease Prediction Using ML in Agile

Phase 1: Initial Planning and Project Setup

➢ Week 1

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• Define Project Scope: Identify diseases to predict (e.g., heart disease, diabetes).
• Set Objectives: Determine success criteria, like model accuracy and deployment goals.
• Data Requirements: Identify data sources, datasets, and data quality checks.
• Backlog Creation: Write user stories, such as data collection, feature engineering, and
model training.

Phase 2: Data Acquisition and Exploration (Sprint 1)

➢ Weeks 2–3
• Data Collection: Gather relevant datasets (clinical data, health records, etc.).
• Data Cleaning: Address missing values, outliers, and data consistency.
• Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA): Visualize data distributions, correlations, and patterns.
• Deliverables: Initial EDA report, cleaned dataset.
• Sprint Review: Present findings to stakeholders for feedback.

Phase 3: Feature Engineering and Selection (Sprint 2)

➢ Weeks 4–5
• Feature Engineering: Create derived features based on domain knowledge.
• Feature Selection: Use statistical and ML based methods to identify key features.
• Data Transformation: Standardize or normalize features as needed.
• Deliverables: Feature selection report, transformed dataset.
• Sprint Review: Validate feature choices with stakeholders.

Phase 4: Model Selection and Baseline Development (Sprint 3)

➢ Weeks 6–7
• Baseline Model Creation: Implement simple models (e.g., logistic regression, decision
trees) for comparison.
• Advanced Model Experimentation: Train more complex models (e.g., random forests,
neural networks).
• Hyperparameter Tuning: Use techniques like grid search or random search.
• Deliverables: Baseline performance metrics for models.
• Sprint Review: Present initial model results, discuss improvements.

Phase 5: Model Evaluation and Optimization (Sprint 4)

➢ Weeks 8–9
• Evaluation Metrics: Use metrics like accuracy, F1score, AUCROC to assess models.
• Error Analysis: Identify misclassified cases and model biases.
• Model Optimization: Further tune parameters and experiment with ensemble techniques.
• Deliverables: Optimized model with evaluation results.

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• Sprint Review: Confirm model performance with stakeholders, review any issues or
potential improvements.

Phase 6: Model Deployment Preparation (Sprint 5)

➢ Weeks 10–11
• Deployment Strategy: Decide on deployment approach (e.g., REST API, cloud).
• Testing: Validate model performance in a test environment.
• Documentation: Prepare model documentation, including usage instructions and
limitations.
• Deliverables: Model ready for deployment, test reports, documentation.
• Sprint Review: Demonstrate deployment plan and confirm all requirements are met.

Phase 7: Deployment and Monitoring (Sprint 6)

Weeks 12–13
Deploy Model: Implement in the chosen environment (e.g., cloud service).
Monitoring: Set up monitoring for prediction accuracy, latency, and performance.
Collect Feedback: Gather user and stakeholder feedback on deployment.
Deliverables: Live predictive model, monitoring reports.
Sprint Review: Present deployment results and feedback collected.

Phase 8: Continuous Improvement and Iteration

➢ Ongoing (Post deployment)
• Feedback Loop: Use feedback from stakeholders and real world data to update the model.
• Performance Tuning: Regularly check model accuracy and update features, retrain if
needed.
• Scalability Enhancements: Improve infrastructure if needed based on model usage.
• Deliverables: Incremental model updates and deployment optimizations.

5.3 Agile Project Plan

Here’s a sample agile project plan for disease prediction using machine learning. This
plan is broken down into phases, with clear objectives, deliverables, and roles for each sprint. This
structure helps ensure timely progress, stakeholder involvement, and the iterative improvement of the
predictive model.

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Project Overview
➢ Project Goal: Build a machine learning model that can predict specific diseases based on
patient data.
➢ Agile Framework: 6 sprints (2 weeks each)
➢ Key Stakeholders: Data scientists, developers, healthcare experts, product owner, and end
users (e.g., clinicians).
➢ Success Metrics: Model accuracy, usability, interpretability, and successful deployment.

Project Phases and Sprints

Phase 1: Planning and Data Preparation

➢ Sprint 1 (Weeks 1–2)

• Objective: Project kick off, initial planning, and data collection.

• Activities:
i) Define disease types for prediction and clarify project goals.
ii) Create the backlog with user stories.
iii) Identify and acquire datasets from relevant sources (e.g., clinical databases).
iv) Perform data cleaning and exploratory data analysis (EDA) to understand data quality.

• Deliverables:
i) Project charter, defined backlog, and initial cleaned dataset.

• Roles:
i) Product Owner: Align project goals with stakeholders.
ii) Data Scientist: Lead EDA and initial data cleaning.
iii) Developer: Set up project repositories and data storage.

Phase 2: Feature Engineering and Selection

➢ Sprint 2 (Weeks 3–4)

• Objective: Engineer and select features to improve predictive power.

• Activities:
i) Conduct feature engineering (create derived features, handle categorical data).
ii) Perform feature selection using statistical methods and domain knowledge.
iii) Finalize data preprocessing steps like normalization and standardization.
• Deliverables:

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i) Finalized feature set, transformed dataset.

• Roles:
i) Data Scientist: Lead feature engineering and selection.
ii) Healthcare Expert: Provide insights for feature selection.
iii) Developer: Integrate preprocessing scripts into the project

Phase 3: Model Development and Baseline Testing

➢ Sprint 3 (Weeks 5–6)

• Objective: Develop initial machine learning models for baseline performance.
• Activities:
i) Implement baseline models (e.g., logistic regression, decision trees).
ii) Train and evaluate models with cross validation on transformed data.
iii) Establish performance benchmarks.
• Deliverables:
i) Baseline model performance report.
• Roles:
i) Data Scientist: Model training and evaluation.
ii) Developer: Create a reproducible pipeline for training and testing.

Phase 4: Model Optimization and Advanced Modelling

➢ Sprint 4 (Weeks 7–8)

• Objective: Improve model performance through tuning and advanced modelling
techniques.
• Activities:
i) Experiment with advanced models (e.g., random forests, neural networks).
ii) Conduct hyperparameter tuning using grid search or random search.
iii) Reevaluate model performance and refine based on metrics.
• Deliverables:
i) Optimized model with performance improvements, documentation of tuning process.
• Roles:
i) Data Scientist: Hyperparameter tuning and model optimization.
ii) Product Owner: Review model performance and ensure alignment with goals.

Phase 5: Model Validation and Deployment Preparation

➢ Sprint 5 (Weeks 9–10)

• Objective: Validate the model in a real world environment and prepare for deployment.
• Activities:
i) Test model performance on a separate validation set.
ii) Ensure model interpretability, bias testing, and ethical considerations.
iii) Document deployment requirements (e.g., APIs, storage).
• Deliverables:
i) Validation report, deployment requirements document.
• Roles:
i) Data Scientist: Validation and final model checks.

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ii) Developer: Prepare deployment pipeline (API setup, cloud resources).

iii) Healthcare Expert: Validate model interpretability and clinical relevance.
iv)
Phase 6: Deployment and Monitoring

➢ Sprint 6 (Weeks 11–12)

• Objective: Deploy the model and set up monitoring for real time feedback.
• Activities:
i) Deploy model to production or testing environment (e.g., through a REST API).
ii) Set up monitoring to track model accuracy, usage, and latency.
iii) Collect initial feedback from end users for continuous improvements.
• Deliverables:
i) Deployed model, monitoring dashboard, initial user feedback.
• Roles:
i) Developer: Manage deployment and monitoring setup.
ii) Product Owner: Collect and review feedback for future sprints.
iii) Healthcare Expert: Gather feedback from clinical users.

Phase 7: Post Deployment Enhancements and Maintenance

➢ Ongoing (Post deployment)

• Objective: Continuously improve the model based on real world feedback.
• Activities:
i) Analyse collected data to assess model drift and accuracy.
ii) Update features and retrain models as necessary.
iii) Incorporate feedback for usability improvements.
➢ Roles:
i) Data Scientist: Monitor model performance and retrain as needed.
ii) Product Owner: Prioritize enhancements based on feedback.
iii) Developer: Manage updates and redeployments.

➢ Overall Agile Roles and Responsibilities

• Product Owner: Ensures project aligns with stakeholder expectations, refines backlog.
• Data Scientist: Leads model development, feature engineering, and evaluation.
• Developer: Builds and maintains the technical infrastructure for deployment.
• Healthcare Expert: Provides domain insights, assists with feature selection, and ensures
clinical relevance.
• Scrum Master: Facilitates agile ceremonies (standups, sprint reviews), removes blockers.

➢ Success Criteria and Final Evaluation

• Model Performance: Achieves target metrics (e.g., accuracy, precision).
• User Feedback: Positive feedback from clinical users regarding model usability.
• Scalability: Model can handle real world deployment requirements.
• Continuous Improvement: Regular updates based on monitoring and feedback.

5.4 Agile User Story (Minimum 3 Tasks)

Here are three user stories with tasks for a disease prediction project using machine learning.

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❖ User Story 1: Data Collection and Preparation

➢ As a data scientist, I want to gather and prepare relevant patient data so that I can create a
reliable dataset for training the disease prediction model.

➢ Tasks:
1. Collect and aggregate patient data from multiple sources (e.g., electronic health
records, lab results).
2. Clean the data by handling missing values, removing duplicates, and addressing
inconsistencies.
3. Perform exploratory data analysis (EDA) to understand data distribution, identify
potential issues, and generate a summary report for stakeholders.
4.
❖ User Story 2: Feature Engineering and Selection
➢ As a data scientist, I want to engineer and select the most relevant features so that the
model can accurately predict diseases.

➢ Tasks:
1. Create new features based on domain knowledge (e.g., combining age and BMI or
categorizing risk levels).
2. Use statistical and machine learning methods to evaluate feature importance and select
top predictors.
3. Document the selected features and data transformations, and validate them with
healthcare experts for clinical relevance.

❖ User Story 3: Model Training and Evaluation

➢ As a data scientist, I want to train and evaluate multiple machine learning models so
that I can select the one that best predicts diseases with high accuracy.

➢ Tasks:
1. Train baseline models (e.g., logistic regression, decision trees) to establish
performance benchmarks.
2. Evaluate models using metrics like accuracy, F1score, and AUCROC on a
validation set.
3. Document model performance and share results with stakeholders for feedback on
potential improvements.

5.5 Agile Release Plan

Here’s an agile release plan for a disease prediction project using machine learning, structured over
three main releases. Each release represents an incrementally improved and tested version of the
model, providing added functionality and accuracy, aligned with stakeholder expectations.

Release Plan for Disease Prediction Using ML

❖ Release 1: Data Preparation and Baseline Model
➢ Timeline: Weeks 1–4 (Sprints 1–2)

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➢ Goal: Set up data infrastructure and build a basic, interpretable predictive model as a proof of
concept.

➢ Key Features:
• Data collection from relevant sources (e.g., clinical records, patient databases).
• Data cleaning and exploratory data analysis (EDA) to ensure data quality.
• Initial feature engineering (create new features or preprocess existing ones).
• Train baseline models (e.g., logistic regression, decision trees) to establish an accuracy
benchmark.

➢ Deliverables:
• Cleaned and structured dataset with documentation.
• Baseline model performance report, including initial evaluation metrics.
• Stakeholder feedback on data and model interpretability.

➢ Stakeholder Review: Review data insights, baseline model performance, and get feedback on
feature selection.

❖ Release 2: Enhanced Model with Advanced Features and Optimization

➢ Timeline: Weeks 5–8 (Sprints 3–4)

➢ Goal: Improve model accuracy and introduce more sophisticated modelling techniques.

➢ Key Features:
• Refined feature engineering, including advanced features based on statistical and domain
insights.
• Implementation of advanced models (e.g., random forests, gradient boosting, or neural
networks).
• Hyperparameter tuning to optimize model performance.
• Evaluation with more robust metrics (e.g., AUC-ROC, precision, recall).
• Initial model interpretability reports (e.g., feature importance analysis) to ensure
transparency.

➢ Deliverables:
• Optimized model with improved performance metrics.
• Documentation of feature engineering and model optimization steps.
• Report on interpretability, highlighting important features and model decisions.

• Stakeholder Review: Present refined model results and discuss interpretability, clinical
relevance, and any adjustments needed.

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❖ Release 3: Deployment and Continuous Monitoring

➢ Timeline: Weeks 9–12 (Sprints 5–6)

➢ Goal: Deploy the model in a real-world or testing environment and set up monitoring for
feedback and continuous improvement.

➢ Key Features:
• Model deployment in a production or testing environment (e.g., as a REST API).
• Monitoring setup for tracking model performance over time (e.g., accuracy drift, latency).
• Real-time data collection for continuous model evaluation and retraining.
• Collection of user feedback (from clinicians, data scientists) to improve model usability.
• Final model documentation and user guide for end-users.

➢ Deliverables:
• Deployed model with monitoring and feedback collection.
• Dashboard for tracking model performance.
• User feedback report and roadmap for potential future improvements.

➢ Stakeholder Review: Review the deployment success, initial user feedback, and discuss future
iterations or enhancements based on monitoring insights.

Post-Release: Ongoing Enhancements and Maintenance

➢ Goal: Continuously improve model accuracy and adaptability based on feedback and new
data.

➢ Activities:
• Regularly retrain the model with new data to reduce accuracy drift.
• Enhance model interpretability, addressing user and stakeholder feedback.
• Explore further feature engineering, optimization, or integration with additional data
sources as needed.

➢ Deliverables:
• Periodic updates to the deployed model.
• Quarterly performance and feedback reports.

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➢ This agile release plan ensures continuous improvement and aligns each release with
stakeholder requirements, ultimately delivering a clinically relevant, reliable, and usable
disease prediction model.

5.6 Agile Sprint Backlog

Here’s a sample sprint backlog for a disease prediction project using machine learning within an agile
framework. This backlog outlines key tasks for each sprint, from data preparation to model
deployment, with clear goals for incremental progress.

Sprint Backlog for Disease Prediction Using ML

❖ Sprint 1: Data Collection and Preparation

➢ Goal: Gather and clean data to establish a strong foundation for model development.
➢ Tasks:
i) Collect datasets from sources (e.g., electronic health records, lab results).
ii) Clean data by handling missing values, outliers, and inconsistencies.
iii) Conduct exploratory data analysis (EDA) to understand data distribution and highlight
potential issues.
iv) Document findings and prepare an EDA report for stakeholders.

➢ Definition of Done:
i) Data is cleaned and ready for use.
ii) EDA report is shared and reviewed by stakeholders.

❖ Sprint 2: Feature Engineering and Selection

➢ Goal: Develop and refine features to improve the predictive capability of the model.

➢ Tasks:
i) Perform feature engineering based on initial data insights (e.g., create new features,
handle categorical data).
ii) Select the most relevant features using statistical analysis and domain knowledge.
iii) Transform data as necessary (e.g., scaling, encoding categorical variables).
iv) Validate feature set with healthcare experts for clinical relevance.

➢ Definition of Done:
i) Finalized feature set is prepared and documented.
ii) Transformed data is ready for modelling.

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❖ Sprint 3: Baseline Model Development

➢ Goal: Build and evaluate baseline models to establish performance benchmarks.

➢ Tasks:
i) Train baseline models (e.g., logistic regression, decision trees) on the processed dataset.
ii) Evaluate baseline models using metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score.
iii) Document baseline model performance and share results with stakeholders.
iv) Identify improvement areas for next sprint.

➢ Definition of Done:
i) Baseline model is trained and evaluated.
ii) Performance report is reviewed and approved by stakeholders.

❖ Sprint 4: Model Optimization and Advanced Modelling

➢ Goal: Improve model accuracy with advanced techniques and hyperparameter tuning.

➢ Tasks:
i) Implement advanced models (e.g., random forests, neural networks).
ii) Perform hyperparameter tuning using grid search or random search.
iii) Evaluate tuned models and compare results with baseline.
iv) Document model improvement process and results for stakeholder review.

➢ Definition of Done:
i) Optimized model achieves target metrics.
ii) Model documentation and evaluation report are complete.

❖ Sprint 5: Model Validation and Deployment Preparation

➢ Goal: Validate the model and prepare it for deployment in a real-world setting.

➢ Tasks:
i) Test the model on a separate validation set and analyse performance.
ii) Conduct bias testing and interpretability checks (e.g., feature importance analysis).
iii) Finalize model documentation, including performance metrics, limitations, and usage
guidelines.
iv) Develop deployment strategy and outline requirements (e.g., API design).

➢ Definition of Done:
i) Model is validated and meets quality standards.
ii) Deployment requirements and documentation are finalized.

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❖ Sprint 6: Model Deployment and Monitoring

➢ Goal: Deploy the model and set up monitoring for continuous feedback and improvement.

➢ Tasks:
i) Deploy model as a REST API or integrate into production environment.
ii) Set up monitoring for model performance metrics (e.g., accuracy drift, latency).
iii) Collect feedback from end-users (e.g., clinicians) and stakeholders.
iv) Develop a dashboard for tracking model performance over time.

➢ Definition of Done:
i) Model is live in the production/test environment with monitoring.
ii) Dashboard is operational, and initial feedback has been collected.

❖ Ongoing Post-Sprint Activities

➢ Goal: Continuously update the model based on real-world data and feedback.
➢ Tasks:
i) Monitor model performance and retrain as necessary.
ii) Implement enhancements based on user feedback and new data.
iii) Regularly review and update documentation for improvements.

5.7 Agile Test Plan

Here's a test plan for a disease prediction project using machine learning within an agile
framework. This plan outlines various testing strategies, objectives, and tasks for each sprint to ensure
model accuracy, reliability, and clinical relevance at each stage of development.

Agile Test Plan for Disease Prediction Using ML

❖ Objective
To validate the disease prediction model for accuracy, performance, usability, and reliability through
various testing phases integrated into each agile sprint. The tests aim to ensure that the model meets
clinical and technical requirements and performs consistently across different data and conditions.

Testing Phases

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❖ Sprint 1: Data Quality and Integrity Testing

➢ Goal: Ensure the data used for model development is clean, consistent, and relevant.
➢ Tests:
• Data Integrity Checks: Verify data consistency, completeness, and type validity (e.g.,
correct age range, numeric values for lab results).
• Missing Data Analysis: Test handling of missing values by assessing fill methods and
impact on data distribution.
• Outlier Detection: Identify and verify potential outliers that may affect model accuracy.
• EDA Review: Confirm data trends, distributions, and relationships are clinically reasonable
and aligned with domain expectations.

➢ Acceptance Criteria:
• Cleaned dataset meets quality requirements with no critical data issues.
• EDA report is reviewed and approved by stakeholders.

❖ Sprint 2: Feature Engineering and Selection Testing

➢ Goal: Validate that feature engineering and selection improve model interpretability and
predictive power.

➢ Tests:
• Feature Consistency Tests: Ensure that derived features are calculated consistently and
meet clinical expectations.
• Feature Importance Analysis: Test initial feature selection methods (e.g., statistical tests,
domain feedback) to confirm selected features are relevant.
• Transformation Verification: Validate that transformations (e.g., scaling, encoding) are
applied correctly and documented.

➢ Acceptance Criteria:
• All selected features are relevant, accurate, and contribute to model performance.
• Transformations are correctly applied and documented.

➢ Sprint 3: Baseline Model Testing

• Goal: Test baseline models for initial accuracy, stability, and model choice.

➢ Tests:
• Model Training Verification: Verify that baseline models (e.g., logistic regression, decision
trees) are correctly trained on the dataset.
• Performance Metrics Validation: Calculate accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score;
confirm they meet minimum benchmark targets.
• Cross-Validation Testing: Evaluate model consistency across different data splits to ensure
stability.

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➢ Acceptance Criteria:
• Baseline model achieves target benchmark metrics.
• Performance metrics are documented, and model results are shared with stakeholders.

❖ Sprint 4: Model Optimization Testing

➢ Goal: Ensure that optimized models are performant and ready for deployment.

➢ Tests:
• Hyperparameter Tuning Verification: Test that tuning process improves model performance
without overfitting.
• Advanced Model Testing: Evaluate complex models (e.g., random forests, neural networks)
and confirm that they outperform baseline models.
• Model Comparison: Test multiple models against each other to identify the best-performing
model.
• Bias and Fairness Testing: Check for biases in model predictions (e.g., gender or age bias)
to ensure fair treatment across groups.

➢ Acceptance Criteria:
• Optimized model meets or exceeds accuracy and other performance targets.
• Bias and fairness tests confirm that the model’s predictions are balanced.

❖ Sprint 5: Model Validation Testing

➢ Goal: Validate the model on a hold-out dataset and conduct interpretability and usability tests.
➢ Tests:
• Hold-Out Testing: Evaluate model performance on a separate validation set to confirm
generalizability.
• Model Interpretability Testing: Test for interpretability by analyzing feature importance
and clinical relevance of predictions.
• Ethical and Clinical Validation: Test model predictions in a clinical context to confirm
alignment with healthcare standards.
• Stress Testing: Assess model stability under various simulated conditions, such as
abnormal data patterns or large data volumes.

➢ Acceptance Criteria:
• Model passes all validation tests with acceptable performance on the hold-out set.
• Interpretability and clinical validation are approved by healthcare experts.

❖ Sprint 6: Deployment and Monitoring Testing

➢ Goal: Ensure successful deployment, model monitoring, and ongoing performance evaluation.

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➢ Tests:
• Deployment Testing: Test the model deployment pipeline (e.g., REST API) to confirm
successful integration.
• Latency and Response Time Testing: Test model response time to ensure it meets
performance requirements.
• Real-Time Monitoring Setup: Confirm monitoring is in place to track model accuracy, data
drift, and latency in production.
• User Feedback Testing: Collect feedback from end-users (e.g., clinicians) on model
usability and relevance.

➢ Acceptance Criteria:
• Model is successfully deployed, and response times meet operational standards.
• Monitoring dashboard is live and effectively tracks model performance.
• Positive feedback from clinical users on model usability.

➢ Additional Testing Considerations

• Regression Testing: Conduct regression testing each sprint to ensure that new features or
model improvements do not negatively impact previously validated components.
• Continuous Integration (CI): Implement automated testing for data pipelines, feature
engineering, and model training to ensure consistency and reliability.

➢ Exit Criteria for Model Release

• Performance: Model achieves and maintains required accuracy and performance metrics on
validation and hold-out datasets.
• Usability: Clinician feedback confirms model usability and interpretability in a clinical
setting.
• Reliability: Model performance remains consistent and within acceptable limits post-
deployment, with adequate monitoring for real-time feedback.

5.8 Earned value and burn charts

In an agile project for disease prediction using machine learning, Earned Value Management (EVM)
and Burn Charts can help track project progress, cost, and schedule adherence. Here’s how you can
structure EVM metrics and burn charts for such a project.

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Earned Value Management (EVM) for Disease Prediction ML Project

❖ Key EVM Metrics:

1) Planned Value (PV): The budgeted cost for the planned work up to a specific point in time.
In agile, this could be the total estimated effort (in hours or story points) allocated for each
sprint.
2) Earned Value (EV): The budgeted value of the completed work to date. This reflects the
value of completed stories or tasks based on their planned effort.
3) Actual Cost (AC): The actual expenditure on resources or hours spent on the work
completed.
4) Schedule Variance (SV): Measures project progress in terms of schedule adherence.
a) Formula: \( SV = EV - PV \)
5) Cost Variance (CV): Measures how much over or under budget the project is.
a) Formula: \( CV = EV - AC \)
6) Schedule Performance Index (SPI): An index showing efficiency with time; values above 1
indicate the project is ahead of schedule.
a) Formula: \( SPI = \frac{EV}{PV} \)
7) Cost Performance Index (CPI): An index showing cost efficiency; values above 1 indicate
cost savings.
a) Formula: \( CPI = \frac{EV}{AC} \)

Example EVM Tracking per Sprint

| Sprint | Planned Value (PV) | Earned Value (EV) | Actual Cost (AC) | Schedule Variance (SV) | Cost
Variance (CV) | SPI | CPI |
| Sprint 1 | 20 Story Points | 18 Story Points | 22 Story Points | -2 | -4
| 0.90 | 0.82 |
| Sprint 2 | 25 Story Points | 24 Story Points | 26 Story Points | -1 | -2
| 0.96 | 0.92 |
| Sprint 3 | 30 Story Points | 32 Story Points | 31 Story Points | +2 | +1
| 1.07 | 1.03 |
| Sprint 4 | 35 Story Points | 35 Story Points | 34 Story Points |0 | +1
| 1.00 | 1.03 |

❖ Interpretation:
➢ SV and SPI show whether the project is on schedule.
➢ CV and CPI show the cost efficiency. For example, Sprint 3 shows improved cost efficiency
and schedule adherence (SPI > 1 and CPI > 1).

Burn Charts for Disease Prediction ML Project

1) Burn-Down Chart:
i) Shows the remaining work (in story points or tasks) over time, ideally following a
downward slope to reach zero by the project end.

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ii) Helps track the pace at which the team completes work, identifying any deviations
early.

2) Burn-Up Chart:
i) Tracks completed work against the total project scope, which is useful if scope may
change.
ii) Offers a clear view of progress towards the project goal and highlights any scope
increases.

Example Burn-Down and Burn-Up Chart Insights

➢ Burn-Down Chart Insights:
• At the start, more points may remain in the backlog as data collection and preparation tasks
are typically more time-intensive.
• By the middle sprints (e.g., Sprint 3 and Sprint 4), points should decrease rapidly as feature
engineering and model building tasks complete.
• Towards the end, the remaining points should approach zero if the project is on track.

➢ Burn-Up Chart Insights:

• The Completed Work line should steadily increase over time as each sprint completes user
stories and tasks.
• If the Scope line (representing total work) increases during the project (e.g., additional
testing requirements), this will be visible as a flat or slower incline in the Completed Work
line compared to the Scope line.

➢ Using EVM and Burn Charts Together

• EVM provides a quantitative snapshot of cost and schedule efficiency.

• Burn Charts visually track progress over time, making it easier to see the pace and scope
completion rate.

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Chapter 6: Proposed Enhancements

For a disease prediction project using machine learning, proposing enhancements can improve model
accuracy, adaptability, and usability, leading to better clinical outcomes. Here are some key
enhancements that could add value:

1) Enhanced Data Quality and Diversity

➢ Purpose: Improve model accuracy by reducing biases and increasing generalizability.
➢ Enhancements:
• Data Augmentation: Incorporate additional datasets, such as longitudinal patient data,
diverse demographics, or genetic information.
• Data Imputation Techniques: Use advanced methods like K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) or
GANs to handle missing values, making data preprocessing more robust.
• Anomaly Detection: Identify and address anomalies early to prevent them from impacting
model performance.

2) Feature Engineering and Selection Refinement

➢ Purpose: Boost predictive power by identifying the most relevant features.
➢ Enhancements:
• Domain-Specific Features: Collaborate with medical experts to create clinically significant
features (e.g., composite risk scores, symptom patterns).
• Automated Feature Selection: Implement algorithms like recursive feature elimination
(RFE) or L1 regularization to reduce model complexity and overfitting.

3) Advanced Model Architectures

➢ Purpose: Increase prediction accuracy with sophisticated models.
➢ Enhancements:
• Ensemble Learning: Combine multiple models (e.g., random forests, boosting algorithms)
to leverage their strengths and mitigate weaknesses.
• Deep Learning Models: For complex datasets, apply deep neural networks, CNNs (for
imaging data), or RNNs (for sequential data).
• Auto ML Integration: Use Auto ML to streamline model selection, hyperparameter tuning,
and optimization, saving time while improving model performance.

4) Real-Time Prediction and Decision Support

➢ Purpose: Enable timely interventions by delivering predictions in real-time.
➢ Enhancements:
• Deployment in Clinical Workflows: Integrate the model into electronic health records
(EHR) or other clinical software for immediate predictions.

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• Predictive Alerts: Develop a notification system to alert healthcare providers about high-
risk patients in real-time.
• API Deployment: Deploy the model as a REST API for easy access and integration with
external applications.

5) Model Interpretability and Explainability

➢ Purpose: Ensure the model’s decisions are transparent and clinically acceptable.
➢ Enhancements:
• Explainable AI (XAI): Integrate SHAP (S Hapley Additive ex Plantations) or LIME (Local
Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations) to explain individual predictions.
• Feature Importance Visualization: Use feature importance metrics to highlight factors
contributing most to each prediction, aiding clinicians in decision-making.
• Bias and Fairness Audits: Regularly test the model for potential biases, especially in
demographic-sensitive data, to improve fairness.

6) Continuous Learning and Model Updating

➢ Purpose: Maintain model relevance and accuracy over time as new data is available.
➢ Enhancements:
• Incremental Learning: Implement techniques allowing the model to learn from new data
without full retraining.
• Regular Retraining Pipelines: Establish automated retraining schedules, especially for
healthcare data prone to shift (e.g., seasonal illness trends).
• Feedback Loops: Collect user feedback on predictions to refine model performance and
build improvements into future updates.

7) Privacy and Compliance Improvements

➢ Purpose: Ensure compliance with healthcare regulations and safeguard patient data.
➢ Enhancements:
• Data Anonymization: Apply techniques to anonymize sensitive data, minimizing privacy
risks.
• Compliance with HIPAA/GDPR: Enhance security and data handling to meet regulatory
standards, which builds trust and broadens usability.
• Federated Learning: Allow hospitals to use the model without sharing sensitive data by
training on decentralized data sources.

8) Usability and User Experience (UX) Optimization

➢ Purpose: Improve model adoption and effectiveness by making it easier to use.
➢ Enhancements:
• User-Friendly Dashboard: Develop a visual dashboard with clear outputs, trends, and
actionable insights.
• Customization Options: Allow users to customize parameters for specific contexts (e.g.,
adjusting thresholds based on patient population).

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• Training for Clinicians: Provide training and resources to help healthcare providers
interpret and utilize predictions effectively.
9) Expanding to Multi-Disease Prediction
➢ Purpose: Broaden the model's scope by supporting predictions for multiple diseases.
➢ Enhancements:
• Multi-Label Classification: Implement techniques allowing the model to predict multiple
diseases simultaneously.
• Transfer Learning: Use knowledge from existing disease models to inform predictions for
new conditions, speeding up development.
• Hierarchical Models: Develop a model hierarchy that can provide general or specific
disease predictions depending on context.

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Chapter 7: Conclusion

In conclusion, disease prediction using machine learning represents a powerful approach to

transforming healthcare by enabling early detection, personalized treatment, and improved patient
outcomes. Machine learning models, through careful feature selection, data quality management,
and the use of advanced algorithms, can identify patterns in complex medical data that may go
unnoticed in traditional diagnostic methods.

However, successful implementation requires attention to data privacy, clinical relevance, and
model interpretability to ensure the technology is both reliable and ethically sound. Continuous
evaluation, updates, and the integration of feedback loops from healthcare providers are crucial to
maintaining accuracy as new data and conditions emerge.

With proper deployment and compliance with regulatory standards, machine learning-based
disease prediction systems can become invaluable tools for healthcare providers, enhancing their
ability to make informed decisions quickly and improve care delivery across diverse patient
populations. The future of healthcare is bright with such predictive models, marking a significant
step forward in precision medicine and preventive care.

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Chapter 8: Bibliography

1) Shen, D., Wu, G., & Suk, H. I. (2017). Deep Learning in Medical Image Analysis. Academic
Press.
2) Chaurasia, V., & Pal, S. (2018). A Review on Disease Prediction using Machine Learning
Algorithms. Journal of King Saud University-Computer and Information Sciences, 30(1), 59-
70.
3) Rajkomar, A., Dean, J., & Kohane, I. (2019). Machine Learning in Medicine. The New
England Journal of Medicine, 380, 1347-1358.

4) Johnson, A. E., Pollard, T. J., & Mark, R. G. (2016). Reproducible Clinical Machine Learning
Research: The MIMIC-III Database. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 17, 1-13.

5) Razzak, M. I., Imran, M., & Xu, G. (2018). Big Data Analytics for Predictive Modelling of
Disease: A Survey. Journal of Biomedical Informatics, 87, 68-75.

6) Li, Y., & Yu, Z. (2019). Predicting Disease Outcomes using Ensemble Learning Models.
Proceedings of the 2019 International Conference on Medical Data Analysis and Biomedical
Engineering.

7) Chicco, D., & Jurman, G. (2020). Machine Learning for Predictive Medicine: A Case Study
on Cardiovascular Disease. Proceedings of the 2020 International Conference on Healthcare
and Data Science (ICHDS).

8) World Health Organization (WHO). (2020). Artificial Intelligence in Health and Disease
Prediction. [https://www.who.int](https://www.who.int)

9) Kaggle. (2024). Healthcare Datasets and Predictive Modelling Competitions.

[https://www.kaggle.com](https://www.kaggle.com)

10) Google Health. (2021). Using AI to Predict Disease and Improve Health Outcomes.
[https://health.google](https://health.google)
• A detailed resource on Google Health’s AI initiatives, including research into using
machine learning for disease prediction, diagnostics, and medical decision support systems

11) Liu, Y., Chen, P. H., & Krause, J. (2019). Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare: Past, Present,
and Future. Nature Biomedical Engineering, 3(1), 3-13.
• This paper discusses the past achievements, current trends, and future potential of artificial
intelligence, including machine learning applications in disease prediction.

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12) Hinton, G. E., & Salakhutdinov, R. R. (2006). Reducing the Dimensionality of Data with
Neural Networks. Science, 313(5786), 504-507.
• A seminal paper on deep learning, discussing how neural networks can reduce data
dimensionality and their application to medical data, including disease prediction.

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