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Binomial Distribution in Our Ecosystem

For environmental biologists

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29 views16 pages

Binomial Distribution in Our Ecosystem

For environmental biologists

Uploaded by

treasureizunyon
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Binomial Distribution

• It is a discrete probability distribution


Characteristics of Binomial Distribution

 A fixed number of observations (trials), n


 e.g., 15 tosses of a coin; 20 patients; 1000
people surveyed
 A binary random variable
 e.g., head or tail in each toss of a coin; defective
or not defective light bulb; girl or boy; present or
absent; smooth or wrinkled
 Generally called “success” and “failure”
 Probability of success is p, probability of failure
(q) is 1 – p
 Constant probability for each observation
 e.g., Probability of getting a tail is the same each
time we toss the coin
The Binomial distribution is all
about success and failure.

When to use the Binomial Distribution

– A fixed number of trials


X
– Only two outcomes
– (success, failure; true, false; heads, tails; girl, boy; six,
not six; present, absent; smooth, wrinkled …..)
– Each trial is independent
Binomial Formula

 n  r ( nr )
P ( X  r )    p  q ,
r

where q  1  p
Binomial distribution,
generally
Note the general pattern emerging  if you have only two possible
outcomes (call them 1/0 or yes/no or success/failure) in n independent
trials, then the probability of exactly r “successes”=
n = number of trials

n r nr
  p (1  p )
r 1-p = probability
of failure
r =# p =
successes probability of
out of n success
trials
Definitions: Binomial

 Binomial: Suppose that n independent experiments, or


trials, are performed, where n is a fixed number, and that
each experiment results in a “success” with probability p
and a “failure” with probability 1-p. The total number of
successes, X, is a binomial random variable with
parameters n and p.
 We write: X ~ Bin (n, p) {reads: “X is
distributed binomially with parameters n and p}
 And the probability that X= r (i.e., that there are
exactly r successes) is:
n r
P( X  r )    p (1  p) n  r
r
Definitions: Bernouilli

Bernouilli trial: If there is only 1 trial with


probability of success p and probability of
failure 1-p, this is called a Bernouilli
distribution.
1 1
P( X  1)    p (1  p)11  p
1

1 0
P( X  0)    p (1  p)10  1  p
0
Binomial example

Take an example of 5 coin tosses. What’s


the probability that you flip exactly 3 heads
in 5 coin tosses?
Equal probabilities
Outcome
 Probability
 THHHT (1/2)3 x (1/2)2
 HHHTT (1/2)3 x (1/2)2
 TTHHH (1/2)3 x (1/2)2
 HTTHH (1/2)3 x (1/2)2 The probability
 
5  ways to  HHTTH (1/2) 3 x (1/2)2 of each unique
 
arrange 3
 THTHH (1/2)3 x (1/2)2 outcome (note:
heads in
 
3 5 trials  HTHTH (1/2)3 x (1/2)2
they are all
equal)
 HHTHT (1/2)3 x (1/2)2
 THHTH (1/2)3 x (1/2)2
 HTHHT (1/2)3 x (1/2)2
5C3 = 5!/3!2! = 10
 10 arrangements x (1/2)3 x (1/2)2

 
5
 P(3 heads and 2 tails) =
  x P(heads)3 x P(tails)2 = 10 x (½)5 =31.25%

3
Unequal Probabilities
E.g. 1. A dice is rolled 5 times. What is the
probability it will show 6 exactly 3 times?
P(6)=1/6 probability of showing 6 in each trial
P(6’)=5/6 probability of not showing 6 in each trial

 5
   5C 3  10
 3
 5  1   5 
3 2

         P(3 sixes in 5 rolls)


 3  6   6 
E.g. 2. Eggs are packed in boxes of 12. The
probability that each egg is broken is 0.35

Find the probability that in a random box of eggs:


there are 4 broken eggs

12 
P( X  4)   0.354  0.65(124)  495  0.354  0.658
4
 0.235 to 3 significan t figures
Eggs are packed in boxes of 12. The probability
that each egg is broken is 0.35
Find the probability in a random box of eggs:

There are less than 3 broken eggs

P( X  3)  P( X  0)  P( X  1)  P( X  2)

12  12  12 


  0.35  0.65   0.35  0.65   0.352  0.65(10)
0 (12) 1 (11)

0 1 2


 11 0.005688  12  0.351  0.6511  66  0.1225  0.01346  0.0151
Mean, variance & standard
deviation

 The mean of a random variable


binomial distribution
 μ²= np
 The variance of a random variable
binomial distribution
 σ²= np(1-p)
 The standard deviation of a random
variable binomial distribution
 σ= np(1  p )
Using Tables of the
Binomial distribution
An easier way to add up binomial
probabilities is to use the cumulative
binomial tables
Find the probability of getting 3 successes in 6 trials,
when n=6 and p=0.3

n=6 x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
P=0.3 P(X=r) 0.1176 0.4202 0.7443 0.9295 0.9891 0.9993 1.000
n=6 x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
P=0.3 P(X=r) 0.1176 0.4202 0.7443 0.9295 0.9891 0.9993 1.000

 The probability of getting 3 or fewer successes is found by adding:


P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) = 0.1176 + 0.3026 + 0.3241
+ 0.1852 = 0.9295

 This is a cumulative probability.

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