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Business Statistics
Second Edition
This page is intentionally left blank.
Business Statistics
Second Edition
J. K. Sharma
Professor
Faculty of Management Studies
University of Delhi, Delhi
Copyright © 2007 Dorling Kindersley (India) Pvt. Ltd.
Licensees of Pearson Education in South Asia
No part of this eBook may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without the publisher’s prior written consent.
This eBook may or may not include all assets that were part of the print version. The publisher reserves the right to remove any
material present in this eBook at any time.
ISBN 9788177586541
eISBN 9788131798669
Head Office: A-8(A), Sector 62, Knowledge Boulevard, 7th Floor, NOIDA 201 309, India
Registered Office: 11 Local Shopping Centre, Panchsheel Park, New Delhi 110 017, India
This page is intentionally left blank.
Preface to the Second Edition
The second edition of Business Statistics, while continuing to retain the clear, crisp
pedagogy of the first edition, adds new features and an even stronger emphasis on
practical, applied statistics in order to expand the decision-making ability of the
reader. Efforts have been made to assist readers in converting data into useful
information that can be used by decision makers in making more thoughtful,
information-based decisions. Thus, the text presents business statistics as ‘value-
added’ techniques.
Features of the Second Edition

1. Most of the problems of the first edition were examined for appropriateness,
clarity and logic before inclusion in the present edition.
2. Several new solved/unsolved problems, which make a significant contribution
to the learning process, have been added in each chapter in an effort to
maximize the utility of the book.
3. Definitions of important terms are provided in the margins for easy reference.
4. New and improved concept quizzes and cases are provided to foster inquisitiveness
and to strengthen the impact of key points.
5. The chapter on test of hypothesis has been thoroughly revised. Many non-
parametric statistical tests have also been added in the chapter on chi-square
test.
I thank the editorial team at Pearson Education for their efforts in reshaping
the text into the second edition. I also extend my heartfelt thanks to my students
who pointed out typographical errors in the first edition.
In preparing the text of this book, I benefited immensely from many books and
publications. I express my gratitude to the authors and publishers of these books.
I thank my wife and children for their encouragement, support and motivation
in preparing this edition.
I hope the book will fulfil the requirements of its readers and will continue to
receive their support and suggestions. Suggestions and comments for improving
the book are always welcome and will be appreciated and acknowledged.
J. K. Sharma
Preface
Statistical thinking enhances our understanding of how life works, allows control
over some societal issues and helps individuals make informed decisions. I am sure
after studying this book your skills in business decision-making and understanding
of the problems of business and industry will improve.
This book has been written as a practical response to the needs of students who
want to obtain a reasonable grasp of basic statistical techniques or methods in a limited
time. The emphasis throughout the book is on understanding through practice,
interpretation of results and their application to the real-life problems. Statistical
theory and derivation of formulae are deliberately kept to a minimum. This will
encourage students who lack confidence in their mathematical ability to understand
statistical techniques.
Each chapter of the book includes the necessary theory and methods of carrying
out the various techniques and analysis. A large number of solved examples and self
practice problems (all with hints and answers) are provided to motivate students to
apply statistical techniques to real data and draw statistical inferences. Other than
providing useful guidance to the students in several professional and competitive
examinations, this book should serve as core textbook for the students of
• BBA, BCA, B.Com.
• PGDBM, MBA, M.Com., MA (Eco)
• MCA, BE, B.Tech. (Computer Science)
• CA, ICWA, AMIE
I am indebted to all my students, friends and colleagues for their helpful input
while writing this book. In particular, I am thankful to Prof. V. K. Bhalla and Prof.
R. P. Hooda for their valuable suggestions and encouragement.
In writing this book I have benefited immensely by referring to several books
and research papers. I express my gratitude to authors, publishers and institutions
of all such books and papers.
I would like to thank the editorial team at Pearson Education, for their assistance
in bringing out this book. Thanks are also due to Mr. Dinesh Kaushik and Mr.
Pawan Tyagi for their cooperation in designing the layout of the book. Finally, I
am thankful to my wife and children for their patience, understanding, love and
assistance in making this book a reality. It is to them that I dedicate this book.
Suggestions and comments to improve the book in content and style are always
welcome and will be greatly appreciated and acknowledged.
J. K. Sharma
Contents
Preface to the Second Edition v

Preface vi
CHAPTER 1 STATISTICS: AN OVERVIEW 1–26

1.1 Reasons for Learning Statistics 1
1.2 Growth and Development of Statistics 2
1.3 Statistical Thinking and Analysis 3
1.4 Statistics Defined 3
1.5 Types of Statistical Methods 5
1.6 Importance and Scope of Statistics 6
1.6.1 Statistics and the State 6
1.6.2 Statistics in Economics 6
1.6.3 Statistics in Business Management 7
1.6.4 Statistics in Physical Sciences 7
1.6.5 Statistics in Social Sciences 7
1.6.6 Statistics in Medical Sciences 8
1.6.7 Statistics and Computers 8
1.7 Limitations of Statistics 8
1.7.1 Statistics Does not Study Qualitative Phenomena 8
1.7.2 Statistics Does not Study Individuals 9
1.7.3 Statistics Can Be Misused 9
1.8 How to Lie with Statistics 9
Conceptual Questions 1A 10
1.9 Need for Data 11
1.9.1 Types of Data 11
1.10 Principles of Measurement 12
1.11 Sources of Data 16
1.11.1 Primary Data Sources 16
1.11.2 Secondary Data Sources 23
Conceptual Questions 1B 25
Chapter Concepts Quiz 26
CHAPTER 2 DATA CLASSIFICATION, TABULATION AND PRESENTATION 27–80

2.1 Introduction 27
2.2 Classification of Data 27
viii CONTENTS
2.2.1 Requisites of Ideal Classification 28

2.2.2 Basis of Classification 29
2.3 Organizing Data Using Data Array 30
2.3.1 Frequency Distribution 31
2.3.2 Methods of Data Classification 33
2.3.3 Bivariate Frequency Distribution 39
2.3.4 Types of Frequency Distributions 40
Self-Practice Problems 2A 43
Hints and Answers 44
2.4 Tabulation of Data 44
2.4.1 Objectives of Tabulation 44
2.4.2 Parts of a Table 45
2.4.3 Types of Tables 46
2.4.4 General and Summary Tables 48
2.4.5 Original and Derived Tables 48
Self-Practice Problems 2B 52
2.5 Graphical Presentation of Data 55
2.5.1 Functions of a Graph 56
2.5.2 Advantages and Limitations of Diagrams (Graph) 56
2.5.3 General Rules for Drawing Diagrams 57
2.6 Types of Diagrams 57
2.6.1 One-Dimensional Diagrams 58
2.6.2 Two-Dimensional Diagrams 68
2.6.3 Three-Dimensional Diagrams 71
2.6.4 Pictograms or Ideographs 71
2.6.5 Cartograms or Statistical Maps 71
2.7 Exploratory Data Analysis 71
2.7.1 Stem-and-Leaf Displays 72
Conceptual Questions 2C 73
Self-Practice Problems 2C 73
Formulae Used 76
Review Self-Practice Problems 77
Case Studies 79
CHAPTER 3 MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY 81–132

3.1 Introduction 81
3.2 Objectives of Averaging 82
3.3 Requisites of a Measure of Central Tendency 82
3.4 Measures of Central Tendency 83
3.5 Mathematical Averages 83
3.5.1 Arithmetic Mean of Ungrouped Data 83
3.5.2. Arithmetic Mean of Grouped (or Classified) Data 86
3.5.3 Some Special Types of Problems and Their Solutions 89
3.5.4 Advantages and Disadvantages of Arithmetic Mean 94
3.5.5 Weighted Arithmetic Mean 97
3.6 Geometric Mean 101
3.6.1 Combined Geometric Mean 103
3.6.2 Weighted Geometric Mean 103
3.6.3 Advantages, Disadvantages and Applications of G.M. 104
CONTENTS ix

3.7 Harmonic Mean 107
3.7.1 Advantages, Disadvantages and Applications of H.M. 107
3.8 Relationship between A.M., G.M. and H.M. 108
3.9 Averages of Position 109
3.9.1 Median 109
3.9.2 Advantages, Disadvantages and Applications of Median 111
3.10 Partition Values—Quartiles, Deciles and Percentiles 112
3.10.1 Graphical Method for Calculating Partition Values 113
Self-Practice Problems 3D 116
3.11 Mode 118
3.11.1 Graphical Method for Calculating Mode Value 120
3.11.2 Advantages and Disadvantages of Mode Value 121
3.12 Relationship between Mean, Median and Mode 121
3.13 Comparison between Measures of Central Tendency 122
Conceptual Questions 3D 122
Self-Practice Problems 3E 123
Formulae Used 125
Case Studies 130
CHAPTER 4 MEASURES OF DISPERSION 133–170

4.1 Introduction 133
4.2 Significance of Measuring Dispersion (Variation) 134
4.2.1 Essential Requisites for a Measure of Variation 135
4.3 Classification of Measures of Dispersion 135
4.4 Distance Measures 136
4.4.1 Range 136
4.4.2 Interquartile Range or Deviation 138
4.5 Average Deviation Measures 142
4.5.1 Mean Absolute Deviation 142
4.5.2 Variance and Standard Deviation 146
4.5.3 Mathematical Properties of Standard Deviation 150
4.5.4 Chebyshev’s Theorem 152
4.5.5 Coefficient of Variation 157
Formulae Used 163
Case Studies 170
x CONTENTS
CHAPTER 5 SKEWNESS, MOMENTS AND KURTOSIS 171–194

5.2 Measures of Skewness 172
5.2.1 Relative Measures of Skewness 172
5.3 Moments 181
5.3.1 Moments about Mean 181
5.3.2 Moments about Arbitrary Point 182
5.3.3 Moments about Zero or Origin 182
5.3.4 Relationship between Central Moments and
Moments about Any Arbitrary Point 182
5.3.5 Moments in Standard Units 183
5.3.6 Sheppard’s Corrections for Moments 183
5.4 Kurtosis 186
5.4.1 Measures of Kurtosis 186
Self Practice Problems 5B 189
Formulae Used 190
CHAPTER 6 FUNDAMENTALS OF PROBABILITY 195–232

6.2 Concepts of Probability 195
6.2.1 Random Experiment 196
6.2.2 Sample Space 196
6.2.3 Event Types 197
6.3 Definition of Probability 198
6.3.1 Classical Approach 198
6.3.2 Relative Frequency Approach 199
6.3.3 Subjective Approach 200
6.3.4 Fundamental Rules of Probability 200
6.3.5 Glossary of Probability Terms 200
6.4 Counting Rules for Determining the Number of Outcomes 200
6.4.1 Multistep Experiments 201
6.4.2 Combinations 201
6.4.3 Permutations 201
6.5 Rules of Probability and Algebra of Events 205
6.5.1 Rules of Addition 205
6.5.2 Rules of Multiplication 208
6.6 Probability Tree Diagram 216
6.7 The Bayes’ Theorem 221
Formulae Used 225
Case Studies 231
CONTENTS xi
CHAPTER 7 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS 233–276

7.2 Probability Distribution Function (pdf) 234
7.3 Cumulative Probability Distribution Function (cdf) 235
7.4 Expected Value and Variance of a Random Variable 237
7.4.1 Expected Value 237
7.4.2 Variance and Standard and Deviation 238
7.4.3 Properties of Expected Value and Variance 238
7.5 Discrete Probability Distributions 243
7.5.1 Binomial Probability Distribution 243
7.5.2 Poisson Probability Distribution 250
7.5.3 Negative Binomial Probability Distribution 254
7.5.4 Multinomial Probability Distribution 255
7.5.5 Hypergeometric Probability Distribution 255
7.6 Continuous Probability Distributions 259
7.6.1 Normal Probability Distribution Function 260
7.6.2 Approximation of Binomial and Poisson Distributions to Normal
Distribution 263
7.6.3 Uniform (Rectangular) Distribution 267
7.6.4 Exponential Probability Distribution 268
7.6.5 Gamma (or Erlang) Distribution 268
7.6.6 Beta Distribution 269
Conceptual Questions 7D 269
Formulae Used 271
CHAPTER 8 SAMPLING AND SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS 277–304

8.2 Reasons of Sample Survey 278
8.3 Types of Bias During Sample Survey 278
8.3.1 Sampling and Non-Sampling Errors 278
8.4 Population Parameters and Sample Statistics 279
8.5 Principles of Sampling 279
8.5.1 Principle of Statistical Regularity 280
8.5.2 Principle of Inertia of Large Numbers 280
8.6 Sampling Methods 280
8.6.1 Probability Sampling Methods 280
8.6.2 Non-Random Sampling Methods 283
8.6.3 Choice of sampling methods 284
8.7 Sampling Distributions 285
8.7.1 Standard Error of Statistic 285
8.7.2 Distinction between Population,
Sample Distributions and Sampling Distributions 286
xii CONTENTS

8.8 Sampling Distribution of Sample Mean 288
8.8.1 Sampling Distribution of Mean
When Population has Non-Normal Distribution 288
8.8.2 Sampling Distribution of Mean
When Population has Normal Distribution 289
8.8.3 Sampling Distribution of Difference
Between two Sample Means 294
8.9 Sampling Distribution of Sample Proportions 298
8.9.1 Sampling Distribution of the Difference of two Proportions 298
Formulae Used 301
CHAPTER 9 ESTIMATION AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS 305–326

9.2 Point Estimation 306
9.2.1 Properties of a Point Estimator 306
9.2.2 Draw back of Point Estimates 308
9.3 Confidence Interval Estimation 308
9.4 Interval Estimation of Population Mean (σ known) 309
9.4.1 Interval Estimation for Difference of Two Means 311
9.5 Interval Estimation of Population Mean (σ Unknown) 311
9.6 Interval Estimation for Population Proportion 314
9.7 Estimating Sample Size 317
9.7.1 Sample Size for Estimating Population Mean 317
9.7.2 Sample Size for Estimating Population Proportion 319
9.7.3 Sample Size Determination for Finite Population 320
Formulae Used 322
CHAPTER 10 HYPOTHESIS TESTING 327–380

10.2 Hypothesis and Hypothesis Tasting 327
10.2.1 Formats of Hypothesis 328
10.3 The Rationale for Hypothesis Testing 328
10.4 General Procedure for Hypothesis Testing 329
10.5 Direction of the Hypothesis Test 332
10.6 Errors in Hypothesis Testing 333
10.6.1 Power of a Statistical Test 333
CONTENTS xiii
10.7 Hypothesis Testing for Population Parameters with Large Samples 336
10.7.1 Hypothesis Testing for Single Population Mean 336
10.7.2 Relationship between Interval Estimation and Hypothesis Test-
ing 337
10.7.3 p-Value Approach to Test Hypothesis of Single Population
Mean 340
10.7.4 Hypothesis Testing for Difference between Two Populations
Means 341
10.8 Hypothesis Testing for Single Population Proportion 347
10.8.1 Hypothesis Testing for Difference between Two Population
Proportions 347
10.9 Hypothesis Testing for a Binomial Proportion 350
10.10 Hypothesis Testing for Population Mean with Small Samples 353
10.10.1 Properties of Student’s T-Distribution 353
10.10.2 Hypothesis Testing for Single Population Mean 354
10.10.3 Hypothesis Testing for Difference of Two Population Means
(Independent Samples) 357
10.10.4 Hypothesis Testing for Difference of Two Population Means
(Dependent Samples) 360
10.11 Hypothesis Testing Based on F-Distribution 367
10.11.1 Properties of F-Distribution 368
10.11.2 Comparing Two Population Variances 369
Formulae Used 372
CHAPTER 11 CHI-SQUARE AND OTHER NON-PARAMETRIC TESTS 381–420

11.2 Advantages and Limitations of Non-Parametric Methods 382
11.3 The Chi-Square Distribution 382
11.3.1 Properties of χ2 Distribution 383
11.3.2 Conditions for the Applications of χ2 Test 383
11.4 The Chi-Square Test-Statistic 384
11.4.1 Grouping of Small Frequencies 384
11.5 Applications of χ2 Test 385
11.5.1 Contingency Table Analysis: Chi-square Test of
Independence 385
11.5.2 Chi-Square Test for Goodness-of-fit 391
11.5.3 Yate’s Correction for Continuity 394
11.5.4 χ2 Test for Population Variance 397
11.5.5 Coefficient of Contingency 399
11.5.6 Chi-Square Test of Homogeneity 399
11.6 The sign Test for Paired Data 401
xiv CONTENTS
11.7 Runs Test for Randomness 403

11.8 Mann-Whitney U-Test 405
11.9 Wilcoxon Matched Pairs Test 407
11.10 Kruskal-Wallis Test 409
Formulae Used 414
Review Self-Practice Problems 11C 415
CHAPTER 12 ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE 421–446

12.2 Analysis of Variance Approach 423
12.3 Testing Equality of Population (Treatment) Means:
One-way Classification 423
12.3.1 Steps for Testing Null Hypothesis 425
12.4 Inferences About Population (Treatment) Means 431
12.5 Testing Equality of Population (Treatment) Means:
Two-Way Classification 433
Formulae Used 440
Case Studies 444
CHAPTER 13 CORRELATION ANALYSIS 447–480

13.2 Significance of Measuring Correlation 448
13.3 Correlation and Causation 448
13.4 Types of Correlations 449
13.4.1 Positive and Negative Correlation 449
13.4.2 Linear and Non-Linear Correlation 450
13.4.3 Simple, Partial, and Multiple Correlation 450
13.5 Methods of Correlation Analysis 450
13.5.1 Scatter Diagram Method 451
13.5.2 Karl Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient 454
13.5.3 Probable Error and Standard Error of Coefficient of
Correlation 455
13.5.4 The Coefficient of Determination 455
13.5.5 Spearman’s Rank Correlation Coefficient 462
13.5.6 Method of Least Squares 469
13.5.7 Auto-Correlation Coefficient 469
13.6 Hypothesis Testing for Correlation Coefficient 471
13.6.1 Hypothesis Testing about Population Correlation Coefficient
(Small Sample) 472
CONTENTS xv
13.6.2 Hypothesis Testing about Population Correlation Coefficient

(Large Sample) 473
13.6.3 Hypothesis Testing about the Difference between Two Independent
Correlation Coefficients 474
Formulae Used 477
CHAPTER 14 REGRESSION ANALYSIS 481–512

14.2 Advantages of Regression Analysis 482
14.3 Types of Regression Models 482
14.3.1 Simple and Multiple Regression Models 482
14.3.2 Linear and Non-Linear Regression Models 483
14.4 Estimation: The method of Least Squares 484
14.5 Assumptions for a Simple Linear Regression Model 485
14.6 Parameters of Simple Linear Regression Model 485
14.6.1 Regression Coefficients 486
14.7 Methods to Determine Regression Coefficients, 487
14.7.1 Least Squares Normal Equations 487
14.7.2 Deviations Method 489
14.7.3 Regression Coefficients for Grouped Sample Data 495
14.8 Standard Error of Estimate and Prediction Intervals 501
14.8.1 Coefficient of Determination: Partitioning of Total Variation 504
Formulae Used 507
Case Studies 512
CHAPTER 15 PARTIAL AND MULTIPLE CORRELATION AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS 513–537

15.2 Assumptions in Multiple Linear Regression 514
15.3 Estimating Parameters of Multiple Regression Model 515
15.3.1 Estimation: The Method of Least Squares 515
15.3.2 Partial Regression Coefficients 516
15.3.3 Relationship between Partial Regression Coefficients and
Correlation Coefficients 517
15.4 Standard Error of Estimate for Multiple Regression 523
15.4.1 Significance Test of Regression Model 524
15.5 Coefficient of Multiple Determination 525
15.6 Multiple Correlation Analysis 526
15.7 Partial Correlation Analysis 527
15.7.1 Relationship between Multiple and Partial Correlation
Coefficients 528
xvi CONTENTS
Formulae Used 534

CHAPTER 16 FORECASTING AND TIME SERIES ANALYSIS 538–617

16.2 Types of Forecasts 538
16.3 Timing of Forecasts 538
16.4 Forecasting Methods 539
16.4.1 Quantitative Forecasting Methods 539
16.4.2 Qualitative Forecasting Methods 540
16.5 Steps of Forecasting 541
16.6 Time Series Analysis 541
16.6.1 Objectives of Time Series Analysis 541
16.6.2 Time Series Patterns 542
16.6.3 Components of a Time Series 542
16.7 Time Series Decomposition Models 542
16.7.1 Multiplicative Model 543
16.7.2 Additive Model 543
16.8 Quantitative Forecasting Methods 544
16.8.1 Freehand Method 544
16.8.2 Smoothing Methods 545
16.8.3 Exponential Smoothing Methods 550
Hints and Answrs 555
16.9 Trend Projection Methods 557
16.9.1 Linear Trend Model 557
16.9.2 Quadratic Trend Model 559
16.9.3 Exponential Trend Model 561
16.9.4 Changing the Origin and Scale of Equations 562
16.10 Measurement of Seasonal Effects 565
16.10.1 Seasonal Index 566
16.10.2 Method of Simple Averages 566
16.10.3 Ratio-to-Trend Method 569
16.10.4 Ratio-to-Moving Average Method 571
16.10.5 Link Relative Method 574
16.11 Measurement of Cyclical Variations—Residual Method 577
16.12 Measurement of Irregular Variations 577
Formulae Used 580
CHAPTER 17 INDEX NUMBERS 587–636

17.2 Index Number Defined 588
17.3 Types of Index Numbers 588
17.4 Characteristics and Uses of Index Numbers 590
CONTENTS xvii
17.4.1 Characteristics of Index Numbers 590

17.4.2 Uses of Index Numbers 590
17.5 Methods for Construction of Price Indexes 592
17.6 Unweighted Price Indexes 592
17.6.1 Single Price Index 592
17.6.2 Aggregative Price Index 593
17.6.3 Average Price Relative Index 594
17.7 Weighted Price Indexes 599
17.7.1 Weighted Aggregative Price Index 599
17.7.2 Weighted Average of Price Relative Index 604
17.8 Quantity or Volume Indexes 606
17.9 Value Index 608
17.10 Tests of Adequacy of Indexes 611
17.10.1 Time Reversal Test 611
17.10.2 Factor Reversal Test 612
17.10.3 Circular Test 613
17.11 Chain Indexes 614
17.12 Applications of Index Numbers 618
17.12.1 Changing the Base of an Index 618
17.12.2 Combining Two or More Overlapping Indexes 619
17.12.3 Correction (Adjustment) of Value of and Item 621
17.13 Consumer Price Indexes 626
17.13.1 Uses of Consumer Price Index (CPI) Number 626
17.13.2 Construction of a Consumer Price Index 626
17.14 Problems of Index Numbers Construction 629
Formulae Used 631
CHAPTER 18 STATISTICAL QUALITY CONTROL 637–672

18.2 Quality and Quality Control 638
18.2.1 Quality Control 638
18.3 Cost of Quality Control 639
18.4 Statistical Quality Control 640
18.4.1 Definitions of Statistical Quality Control 641
18.5 Techniques of Statistical Quality Control 641
18.5.1 Through 100 Per Cent Inspection 641
18.5.2 Through Statistical Quality Control 641
18.6 In-Process Quality Control Techniques 642
18.6.1 Control Charts 643
18.6.2 Setting up the Control Limits 644
18.7 Control Charts for Variables 645
–
18.7.1 Mean or x-Chart 645
18.7.2 R-Chart: A Control Chart for Dispersion 648
–
18.7.3 Choice and Interpretation of x and R Charts 649
xviii CONTENTS

18.8 Control Charts for Attributes 652
18.8.1 C-Chart: Control Chart for Defects per Unit 652
18.8.2 p-Chart: Control Chart for Proportion of Defectives 654
18.8.3 np-Chart: Control Chart for Total Number of Defectives 655
18.9 Sampling Plan for Attributes and Variables 657
18.9.1 Acceptance Sampling 657
18.10 Specifying an Acceptance Sampling Plan 658
18.10.1 Types of Acceptance Sampling Plans 659
18.11 Determining Error and OC Curve 661
18.11.1 Producer and Consumer Risk 662
18.11.2 Effect of Change in Sample Size n and
Acceptance Number c 663
18.11.3 Average Outgoing Quality (AOQ) 665
18.12 Advantages and Limitations of Statistical Quality Control 666
Formulae Used 668
Case Studies 671
CHAPTER 19 STATISTICAL DECISION THEORY 673–713

19.2 Steps in Decision Theory Approach 674
19.3 Types of Decision-Making Environments 675
19.4 Decision-Making under Uncertainty 676
19.4.1 Criterion of Optimism (Maximax or Minimin) 676
19.4.2 Criterion of Pessimism (Maximin or Minimax) 676
19.4.3 Equally Likely Decision (Laplace) Criterion 676
19.4.4 Criterion of Realism (Hurwicz Criterion) 677
19.4.5 Criterion of Regret 677
19.5 Decision-Making Under Risk 680
19.5.1 Expected Monetary Value (EMV) 681
19.5.2 Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL) 684
19.5.3 Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) 686
19.6 Posterior Probabilities and Bayesian Analysis 692
Self-Practice Problems 19B, 697
19.7 Decision Tree Analysis, 698
Formulae Used 708
APPENDICES 715–727
INDEX 729–732
Statistical thinking will
one day be as necessary
C h a p t e r 1 for efficient citizenship

as the ability to read and
write.
—H. G. Wells
Statistics: An Overview
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
After studying this chapter, you should be able to

z present a broad overview of statistics as a subject.
z bring out applications of statistics and its usefulness in managerial decision-
making.
z describe the data collection process.
z understand basic concepts of questionnaire design and measurement scales.
1.1 REASONS FOR LEARNING STATISTICS

H. G. Wells’ statement that the ‘statistical thinking will one day be as necessary as the
ability to read and write’ is valid in the context of today’s competitive business environ-
ment where many organizations find themselves data-rich but information-poor. Thus
for decision-makers it is important to develop the ability to extract meaningful informa-
tion from raw data to make better decisions. It is possible only through the careful
analysis of data guided by statistical thinking.
Reasons for analysis of data is an understanding of variation and its causes in any Data: A collection of
phenomenon. Since variation is present in all phenomena, therefore knowledge of it observations of one or more
leads to better decisions about a phenomenon that produced the data. It is from this variables of interest.
perspective that the learning of statistics enables the decision-maker to understand how
to
• present and describe information (data) so as to improve decisions.
• draw conclusions about the large population based upon information obtained Population: A collection of
from samples. all elements (units or
• seek out relationship between pair of variables to improve processes. variables) of interest.
• obtain reliable forecasts of statistical variables of interest.
Thus a statistical study might be simple exploration enabling us to gain an insight into a
virtually unknown situation or it might be sophisticated analysis to produce numerical
confirmation or refection of some widely held belief.
As shown in Fig. 1.1, the text matter of the book has been organized keeping in view
these four reasons for learning statistics.
1
2 BUSINESS S T A T I S T I C S
Figure 1.1
Flow Chart of Reasons For Learning
Statistics
1.2 GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF STATISTICS

Statistics: The art and The views commonly held about statistics are numerous, but often incomplete. It has
science of collecting, different meanings to different people depending largely on its use. For example, (i) for
analysing, presenting, and a cricket fan, statistics refers to numerical information or data relating to the runs scored
interpreting data.
by a cricketer; (ii) for an environmentalist, statistics refers to information on the quantity
of pollution released into the atmosphere by all types of vehicles in different cities; (iii)
for the census department, statistics consists of information about the birth rate per
thousand and the sex ratio in different states; (iv) for a share broker, statistics is the
information on changes in share prices over a period of time; and so on.
The average person perceives statistics as a column of figures, various types of graphs,
tables and charts showing the increase and/or decrease in per capita income, wholesale
price index, industrial production, exports, imports, crime rate and so on. The sources
of such statistics for a common man are newspapers, magazines/journals, reports/bulle-
tins, radio, and television. In all such cases the relevant data are collected, numbers
manipulated and information presented with the help of figures, charts, diagrams, and
pictograms; probabilities are quoted, conclusions reached, and discussions held. Efforts
to understand and find a solution (with certain degree of precision) to problems pertain-
ing to social, political, economic, and cultural activities, seem to be unending. All such
efforts are guided by the use of methods drawn from the field of statistics.
The development of mathematics in relation to the probability theory and the advent
of fast-speed computers have substantially changed the field of statistics in the last few
decades. The use of computer software, such as SAS and SPSS, have brought about a
technological revolution. The increasing use of spreadsheet packages like Lotus 1-2-3
and Microsoft Excel have led to the incorporation of statistical features in these pack-
ages. These softwares have made the task of statistical analysis quite convenient and
feasible.
CHAPTER 1 STATISTICS: AN OVERVIEW 3
1.3 STATISTICAL THINKING AND ANALYSIS Figure 1.2

Quality Improvement Process Model
An integral part of the managerial approach focuses on the quality

of products manufactured or services provided by an organization.
This approach requires the application of certain statistical meth-
ods and the statistical thinking by the management of the organiza-
tion. Statistical thinking can be defined as the thought process that focuses
on ways to identify, control, and reduce variations present in all phenom-
ena. A better understanding of a phenomenon through statistical
thinking and use of statistical methods for data analysis, enhances
opportunities for improvement in the quality of products or ser-
vices. Statistical thinking also allows one to recognize and make in-
terpretations of the variations in a process.
As shown in Fig. 1.2, management philosophy acts as a guide for
laying a solid foundation for total quality improvement efforts. How-
ever, use of behavioural tools such as brainstorming, team-building,
and nominal group decision-making, and statistical methods such as
tables, control charts, and descriptive statistics, are also necessary for understanding
and improving the processes.
The steps of statistical thinking necessary for increased understanding of and im-
provement in the processes are summarized in Fig. 1.3.
Figure 1.3
Flow Chart of Process Improve-
ment
1.4 STATISTICS DEFINED

As Statistical Data The word statistics refers to a special discipline or a collection of
procedures and principles useful as an aid in gathering and analysis of numerical infor-
mation for the purpose of drawing conclusions and making decisions. Since any nu-
merical figure, or figures, cannot be called statistics owing to many considerations which
decide its use, statistical data or mere data is more appropriate expression to indicate
numerical facts.
A few definitions which describe the statistics characteristics are as follows:
• The classified facts respecting the condition of the people in a state . . . espe-
cially those facts which can be stated in numbers or in tables of numbers or in
any tabular or classified arrangement. —Webster
This definition is quite narrow as it confines the scope of statistics only to such facts and
figures which are related to the conditions of the people in a state.
Quantitative data: • By statistics we mean quantitative data affected to a marked extent by multiplicity
Numerical data measured on of causes. —Yule and Kendall
the interval or ratio scales to
describe ‘how much’ or ‘how
• By statistics we mean aggregates of facts affected to a marked extent by multiplic-
many’. ity of causes numerically expressed, enumerated, or estimated according to rea-
sonable standards of accuracy, collected in a systematic manner for predeter-
mined purpose and placed in relation to each other. —Horace Secrist
The definition given by Horace is more comprehensive than those of Yule and Kendall.
This definition highlights the following important characteristics
(i) statistics are aggregates of facts,
(ii) statistics are effected to a marked extent by multiplicity of causes,
(iii) statistics are numerically expressed,
(iv) statistics are enumerated or estimated according to reasonable standards of ac-
curacy,
(v) statistics are collected in a systematic manner for a pre-determined purpose,
and
(vi) statistics are placed in relation to each other.
As Statistical Methods Methods adopted as aids in the collection and analyses of numeri-
cal information or statistical data for the purpose of drawing conclusions and making
decisions are called statistical methods.
Statistical methods, also called statistical techniques, are sometimes loosely referred
to cover ‘statistics’ as a subject in whole. There are two branches of statistics: (i) Math-
ematical statistics and (ii) Applied statistics. Mathematical statistics is a branch of mathemat-
ics and is theoretical. It deals with the basic theory about how a particular statistical
method is developed. Applied statistics, on the other hand, uses statistical theory in
formulating and solving problems in other subject areas such as economics, sociology,
medicine, business/industry, education, and psychology.
The field of applied statistics is not easy because the rules necessary to solve a par-
ticular problem are not always obvious although the guiding principles that underlie
the various methods are identical regardless of the field of their application. As a matter
of fact, experience and judgment are otherwise more necessary to execute a given statis-
tical investigation.
The purpose of this book is limited to discussing the fundamental principles and
methods of applied statistics in a simple and lucid manner so that readers with no
previous formal knowledge of mathematics could acquire the ability to use statistical
methods for making managerial decisions.
A few relevant definitions of statistical methods are given below:
• Statistics is the science which deals with the methods of collecting, classifying,
presenting, comparing and interpreting numerical data collected to throw some
light on any sphere of enquiry. —Seligman
• The science of statistics is the method of judging, collecting natural or social
phenomenon from the results obtained from the analysis or enumeration or
collection of estimates. —King
A. L. Bowley has given the following three definitions keeping in mind various
aspects of statistics as a science:
• Statistics may be called the science of counting.
• Statistics may be called the science of average.
• Statistics is the science of the measurement of social organism regarded as a
whole in all its manifestations.
These definitions confine the scope of statistical analysis only to ‘counting, average,
and applications’ in the field of sociology alone. Bowley realized this limitation and
himself said that statistics cannot be confined to any science. Another definition of statis-
tics given by Croxton and Cowden is as follows:
• Statistics may be defined as a science of collection, presentation, analysis and

interpretation of numerical data. —Croxton and Cowden
This definition has pointed out four stages of statistical investigation, to which one more
stage ‘organization of data’ rightly deserves to be added. Accordingly, statistics may be
defined as the science of collecting, organizing, presenting, analysing, and interpreting
numerical data for making better decisions.
1.5 TYPES OF STATISTICAL METHODS

Statistical methods, broadly, fall into the following two categories:
(i) Descriptive statistics, and
(ii) Inferential statistics
Descriptive statistics includes statistical methods involving the collection, presentation, Descriptive statistics: It
and characterization of a set of data in order to describe the various features of that set of consists of procedures used
data. to summarize and describe
the characteristics of a set of
In general, methods of descriptive statistics include graphic methods and numeric
data.
measures. Bar charts, line graphs, and pie charts comprise the graphic methods, whereas
numeric measures include measures of central tendency, dispersion, skewness, and kur-
tosis.
Inferential statistics includes statistical methods which facilitate estimating the charac- Inferential statistics: It
teristic of a population or making decisions concerning a population on the basis of consists of procedures used
sample results. Sample and population are two relative terms. The larger group of units to make inferences about
population characteristics on
about which inferences are to be made is called the population or universe and a sample
the basis of sample results.
is a fraction, subset, or portion of that universe.
Inferential statistics can be categorized as parametric or non-parametric. The use of
parametric statistics is based on the assumption that the population from which the
sample is drawn, is normally distributed. Parametric statistics can be used only when
data are collected on an interval or ratio scale. Non-parametric statistics makes no explicit
assumption regarding the normality of distribution in the population and is used when Sample: A subset (portion)
the data are collected on a nominal or ordinal scale. of the population.
The need for sampling arises because in many situations data are sought for a large
group of elements such as individuals, companies, voters, households, products,
customers, and so on to make inferences about the population that the sample represents.
Thus, due to time, cost, and other considerations data are collected from only a small
portion of the population called sample. The concepts derived from probability theory
help to ascertain the likelihood that the analysis of the characteristic based on a sample
do reflect the characteristic of the population from which the sample is drawn. This
helps the decision-maker to draw conclusions about the characteristics of a large
population under study.
Following definitions are necessary to understand the concept of inferential statistics:
• A process is a set of conditions that repeatedly come together to transform inputs
into outcomes. Examples includes a business process to serve customers, length
of time to complete a banking transaction, manufacturing of goods, and so on.
• A population (or universe) is a group of elements or observations relating to a
phenomenon under study for which greater knowledge and understanding is
needed. The observations in population may relate to employees in a company,
a large group of manufactured items, vital events like births and deaths or road
accidents. A population can be finite or infinite according to the number of
observations under statistical investigation.
• A statistical variable is an operationally defined characteristic of a population or
process and represents the quantity to be observed or measured.
• A sample is a group of some, but not all, of the elements or observations of a
population or process. The individual elements of a sample are called sampling
or experimental units.
• A parameter is a descriptive or summary measure (a numerical quantity) associated
with a statistical variable that describes a characteristic of the entire population.
• A statistic is a numerical quantity that describes the characteristic of a sample

drawn from a population.
For example, a manufacturer who produces electrical coils wanted to learn the average
resistance of coils. For this he selects a sample of coils at regular intervals of time and
measures the resistance of each. If the sample average does not fall within the specified
range of variations, the process controls are checked and adjustments are made. In this
example, the population or universe would be all the coils being produced by the
manufacturing process; the statistical variable is the resistance of a coil; statistic is the
average resistance of coils in a given sample; parameters of interest are the average
resistance and variation in resistance among manufactured coils; and sampling units are
the coils selected for the sample.
1.6 IMPORTANCE AND SCOPE OF STATISTICS

The scope of applications of statistics has assumed unprecedented dimensions these
days. Statistical methods are applicable in all diversified fields such as economics, trade,
industry, commerce, agriculture, bio-sciences, physical sciences, educations, astronomy,
insurance, accountancy and auditing, sociology, psychology, meteorology, and so on.
Bringing out its wide applications, Carrol D. Wright (1887), United States Commis-
sioner of the Bureau of Labour, has explained the importance of statistics in saying so:
To a very striking degree our culture has become a statistical culture. Even a
person who may never have heard of an index number is affected by those index
numbers which describe the cost of living. It is impossible to understand Psy-
chology, Sociology, Economics or a Physical Science without some general idea
of the meaning of an average, of variation, of concomitance of sampling, of how
to interpret charts and tables.
In the recent past, statistics has acquired its importance as a subject of study in the
curricula of many other disciplines. According to the statistician, Bowley, ‘A knowledge of
statistics is like a knowledge of foreign language or of algebra, it may prove of use at any time
under any circumstances’.
Given below is a brief discussion on the importance of statistics in a few other impor-
tant disciplines.
1.6.1 Statistics and the State

A state in the modern setup collects the largest amount of statistics for various purposes.
It collects data relating to prices, production, consumption, income and expenditure,
investments, and profits. Popular statistical methods such as time-series analysis, index
numbers, forecasting, and demand analysis are extensively practised in formulating eco-
nomic policies. Governments also collect data on population dynamics in order to ini-
tiate and implement various welfare policies and programmes.
In addition to statistical bureaus in all ministries and government departments in
the Central and state governments, other important agencies in the field are the Central
Statistical Organisation (CSO), National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO), and the
Registrar General of India (RGI).
1.6.2 Statistics in Economics

Statistical methods are extensively used in all branches of economics. For example:
(i) Time-series analysis is used for studying the behaviour of prices, production
and consumption of commodities, money in circulation, and bank deposits and
clearings.
(ii) Index numbers are useful in economic planning as they indicate the changes
over a specified period of time in (a) prices of commodities, (b) imports and
exports, (c) industrial/agricultural production, (d) cost of living, and the like.
(iii) Demand analysis is used to study the relationship between the price of a com-
modity and its output (supply).
(iv) Forecasting techniques are used for curve fitting by the principle of least squares
and exponential smoothing to predict inflation rate, unemployment rate, or
manufacturing capacity utilization.
1.6.3 Statistics in Business Management

According to Wallis and Roberts, ‘Statistics may be regarded as a body of methods for
making wise decisions in the face of uncertainty.’ Ya-Lin-Chou gave a modified defini-
tion over this, saying that ‘Statistics is a method of decision making in the face of uncer-
tainty on the basis of numerical data and calculated risks.’ These definitions reflect the
applications of statistics in the development of general principles for dealing with uncer-
tainty.
Statistical reports provide a summary of business activities which improves capabil-
ity of making more effective decisions regarding future activities. Discussed below are
certain activities of a typical organization where statistics plays an important role in their
efficient execution.
Marketing Before a product is launched, the market research team of an organization,

through a pilot survey, makes use of various techniques of statistics to analyse data on
population, purchasing power, habits of the consumers, competitors, pricing, and a
hoard of other aspects. Such studies reveal the possible market potential for the product.
Analysis of sales volume in relation to the purchasing power and concentration of
population is helpful in establishing sales territories, routing of salesman, and advertis-
ing strategies to improve sales.
Production Statistical methods are used to carry out R&D programmes for improvement
in the quality of the existing products and setting quality control standards for new ones.
Decisions about the quantity and time of either self-manufacturing or buying from out-
side are based on statistically analysed data.
Finance A statistical study through correlation analysis of profit and dividend helps to
predict and decide probable dividends for future years. Statistics applied to analysis of
data on assets and liabilities and income and expenditure, help to ascertain the financial
results of various operations.
Financial forecasts, break-even analysis, investment decisions under uncertainty—
all involve the application of relevant statistical methods for analysis.
Personnel In the process of manpower planning, a personnel department makes statis-

tical studies of wage rates, incentive plans, cost of living, labour turnover rates, employ-
ment trends, accident rates, performance appraisal, and training and development
programmes. Employer-employee relationships are studied by statistically analysing vari-
ous factors—wages, grievances handling, welfare, delegation of authority, education and
housing facilities, and training and development.
1.6.4 Statistics in Physical Sciences

Currently there is an increasing use of statistical methods in physical sciences such as
astronomy, engineering, geology, meteorology, and certain branches of physics. Statisti-
cal methods such as sampling, estimation, and design of experiments are very effective in
the analysis of quantitative expressions in all fields of most physical sciences.
1.6.5 Statistics in Social Sciences

The following definitions reflect the importance of statistics in social sciences.
• Statistics is the science of the measurement of social organism, regarded as a
whole in all its manifestations. —Bowley
• The science of statistics is the method of judging collective, natural or social
phenomenon from the results obtained from the analysis, enumeration or col-
lection of estimates. —W. I. King
Some specific areas of applications of statistics in social sciences are as listed below:
(i) Regression and correlation analysis techniques are used to study and isolate all
those factors associated with each social phenomenon which bring out the changes
in data with respect to time, place, and object.
(ii) Sampling techniques and estimation theory are indispensable methods for con-
ducting any social survey pertaining to any strata of society, and drawing valid
inferences.
(iii) In sociology, statistical methods are used to study mortality (death) rates, fertility
(birth rates) trends, population growth, and other aspects of vital statistics.
1.6.6 Statistics in Medical Sciences

The knowledge of statistical techniques in all natural sciences—zoology, botany, meteo-
rology, and medicine—is of great importance. For example, for proper diagnosis of a
disease, the doctor needs and relies heavily on factual data relating to pulse rate, body
temperature, blood pressure, heart beats, and body weight.
An important application of statistics lies in using the test of significance for testing
the efficacy of a particular drug or injection meant to cure a specific disease. Compara-
tive studies for effectiveness of a particular drug/injection manufactured by different
companies can also be made by using statistical techniques such as the t-test and F-test.
To study plant life, a botanist has to rely on data about the effect of temperature, type
of environment, and rainfall, and so on.
1.6.7 Statistics and Computers

Computers and information technology, in general, have had a fundamental effect on
most business and service organizations. Over the last decade or so, however, the advent
of the personal computer (PC) has revolutionized both the areas to which statistical
techniques are applied. PC facilities such as spreadsheets or common statistical packages
have now made such analysis readily available to any business decision-maker. Comput-
ers help in processing and maintaining past records of operations involving payroll
calculations, inventory management, railway/airline reservations, and the like. Use of
computer softwares, however, presupposes that the user is able to interpret the com-
puter outputs that are generated.
Remark We discussed above the usefulness of statistical techniques in some important
fields. However, the scope of statistics is not limited to these only. Statistical data and
methods are useful to banking, research and development, insurance, astronomy, ac-
countancy and auditing, social workers, labour unions, chambers of commerce, and so
on.
1.7 LIMITATIONS OF STATISTICS

Although statistics has its applications in almost all sciences—social, physical, and natu-
ral—it has its own limitations as well, which restrict its scope and utility.
1.7.1 Statistics Does Not Study Qualitative Phenomena

Since statistics deals with numerical data, it cannot be applied in studying those prob-
lems which can be stated and expressed quantitatively. For example, a statement like
‘Export volume of India has increased considerably during the last few years’ cannot be
analysed statistically. Also, qualitative characteristics such as honesty, poverty, welfare,
beauty, or health, cannot directly be measured quantitatively. However, these subjective
concepts can be related in an indirect manner to numerical data after assigning particu-
lar scores or quantitative standards. For example, attributes of intelligence in a class of
students can be studied on the basis of their Intelligence Quotients (IQ) which is consid-
ered as a quantitative measure of the intelligence.
1.7.2 Statistics Does Not Study Individuals

According to Horace Secrist ‘By statistics we mean aggregate of facts effected to a marked extent
by multiplicity of factors . . . and placed in relation to each other.’ This statement implies that
a single or isolated figure cannot be considered as statistics, unless it is part of the
aggregate of facts relating to any particular field of enquiry. For example, price of a
single commodity or increase or decrease in the share price of a particular company
does not constitute statistics. However, the aggregate of figures representing prices, pro-
duction, sales volume, and profits over a period of time or for different places do consti-
tute statistics.
1.7.3 Statistics Can be Misused

Statistics are liable to be misused. For proper use of statistics one should have enough
skill and experience to draw accurate and sensible conclusions. Further, valid results
cannot be drawn from the use of statistics unless one has a proper understanding of the
subject to which it is applied.
The greatest danger of statistics lies in its use by those who do not possess sufficient
experience and ability to analyse and interpret statistical data and draw sensible conclu-
sions. Bowley was right when he said that ‘statistics only furnishes a tool though imperfect
which is dangerous in the hands of those who do not know its use and deficiencies.’ For example,
the conclusion that smoking causes lung cancer, since 90 per cent of people who smoke
die before the age of 70 years, is statistically invalid because here nothing has been
mentioned about the percentage of people who do not smoke and die before reaching
the age of 70 years. According to W. I. King, ‘statistics are like clay of which you can make a
God or a Devil as you please.’ He also remarked, ‘science of statistics is the useful servant but
only of great value to those who understand its proper use.’
1.8 HOW TO LIE WITH STATISTICS

Despite the happy use of statistics and statistical methods in almost every profession, it is
still distrusted. Statistics is considered one of the three types of lies: lies, damn lies, and
statistics. Listed below may be two reasons for such a notion being held by people about
statistics.
(i) Figures being innocent and convincing, are easily believable.
(ii) Figures which support a particular statement may not be true. Such figures may
be incomplete, inaccurate, or deliberately manipulated by prejudiced persons
in an attempt to deceive the user or attain ones own motive.
Table 1.1 lists some of the personal qualities and attributes considered necessary for an
individual to be an effective statistician:
Table 1-1 Personal Qualities and Attributes For A Statistician*
An effective statistician
• is well-trained in the theory and practice of statistics. • has a pleasing personality and is able to work with others.
• is an effective problem-solver. • gets highly involved in solving organizational problems.
• has good oral and written communication skills. • is able to extend and develop statistical methodology.
• can work within the constraints of real-life. • can adapt quickly to new problems and challenges.
• knows how to use computers to solve problems. • produces high quality work in an orderly and timely
• understands the realities of statistical practices. fashion.
* Source: “Preparing Statistics for Cancers in Industry,” The American Statistician, Vol. 34, No. 2, May 1980.
Conceptual Questions 1A
1. What is statistics? How do you think that the knowledge 17. ‘Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for effi-
of statistics is essential in management decisions. Give ex- cient citizenship as the ability to read and write’ Com-
amples. ment. Also give two examples, of how the science of statis-
2. Write a brief note on the application of statistics in busi- tics could be of use in managerial decision-making.
ness and industry. [HP Univ., MBA, 1996]
3. Discuss the meaning and scope of statistics, bringing out 18. ‘Statistics is a method of decision-making in the face of
its importance particularly in the field of trade and com- uncertainty on the basis of numerical data and calculated
merce. risks’. Comment and explain with suitable illustrations.
4. (a) How far can statistics be applied for business decisions? [Delhi Univ., MBA, 1992, 1993]
Discuss briefly bringing out limitations, if any 19. ‘Without adequate understanding of statistics, the investi-
(b) Define ‘statistics’ and give its main limitations. gator in social sciences may frequently be like the blind
man grouping in a dark closet for a black cat that is not
5. (a) Explain how statistics plays an important role in man-
there’. Comment. Give two examples of the use and abuse
agement planning and decision-making?
of statistics in business.
(b) Define statistics and statistical methods. Explain the
20. One can say that statistical inference includes an interest in
uses of statistical methods in modern business.
statistical description as well, since the ultimate purpose of
[Vikram Univ., MBA, 1996]
statistical inference is to describe population data. Does
6. Statistical methods are the most dangerous tools in the statistical inference differ from statistical description? Dis-
hands of an inexpert. Examine this statement. How are cuss.
statistics helpful in business and industry? Explain.
21. What characteristics are inevitable in virtually all data and
[Delhi Univ., MBA, 1999]
why is the understanding of it important?
7. (a) Define statistics. Discuss its applications in the man-
22. ‘Modern statistical tools and techniques are important for
agement of business enterprises. What are its limita-
improving the quality of managerial decisions’. Explain
tion, if any.
this statement and discuss the role of statistics in the plan-
[Jodhpur Univ., MBA; HP Univ., MBA, 1996]
ning and control of business. [HP Univ., MBA, 1998]
(b) Explain the utility of statistics as a managerial tool.
23. ‘The fundamental gospel of statistics is to push back the
Also discuss its limitations.
domain of ignorance, rule of thumb, arbitrary or prepare
[Osmania Univ., MBA, 1998]
decisions, traditions, and dogmatism, and to increase the
8. What role does Business Statistics play in the manage- domain in which decisions are made and principles are
ment of a business enterprise? Examine its scope and limi- formulated on the basis of analysed quantitative facts’.
tations. [Delhi Univ., MBA, 1998] Explain the statement with the help of a few business
9. (a) Statistics are like clay of which you can make a God or examples. [Osmania Univ., MBA, 1999]
Devil, as you please. Explain.
24. ‘Statistics are numerical statements of facts but all facts
(b) There are three known lies : lies, dam-lies and statis- numerically stated are not statistics’. Comment upon the
tics. Comment on this statement and point out the statement.
limitations of statistics.
25. (a) Define statistics. Why do some people look at this
10. Discuss briefly the applications of Business Statistics, point- science with an eye of distrust?
ing out their limitations, if any. [Delhi Univ., MBA, 1997] (b) ‘The science of statistics is the most useful servant
11. Describe the main areas of business and industry where but only of great value to those who understand its
statistics are extensively used. proper use’. Discuss.
12. Statistics affects everybody and touches life at many points. 26. Bring out the applications of statistics in economics and
It is both a science and an art. Explain this statement with business administration as a scientific tool. Also point out
suitable examples. any two limitations of statistics.
13. With the help of few examples explain the role of statistics [CA Foundation, May 1996]
as a managerial tool. 27. Give an example of the use of descriptive statistics and
14. ‘Statistics in the science of estimates and probabilities’. inferential statistics in each of the following areas of appli-
Explain the statement and discuss the role of statistics in cation in a business firm.
the management of business enterprises. (a) Production management
15. Are statistical methods likely to be of any use to a business (b) Financial management
firm ? Illustrate your answer with some typical business (c) Marketing management
problems and the statistical techniques to be used there. (d) Personnel management
[HP Univ., MBA, 1996; Delhi Univ., MBA, 2000; 28. Discuss the differences between statistics as numerical facts
Roorkee Univ., MBA, 2000] and as a discipline or field of study.
16. ‘Statistics is a body of methods for making wise decisions 29. ORG conducts weekly surveys of television viewing
in the face of uncertainty’. Comment on the statement throughout the country. The ORG statistical ratings indi-
bringing out clearly how statistics helps in business deci- cate the size of the viewing audience for each major net-
sion-making. [Osmania Univ., MBA, 1996] work television programme. Rankings of the television
programmes and of the viewing audience market shares (b) What is the population?
for each network are published each week. (c) Why would a sample be used for this situation?
(a) What is the organization, ORG, attempting to mea- (d) What kinds of decisions or actions are based on the
sure? ORG studies?
1.9 NEED FOR DATA

Statistical data are the basic material needed to make an effective decision in a particular
situation. The main reasons for collecting data are as listed below:
(i) To provide necessary inputs to a given phenomenon or situation under study.
(ii) To measure performance in an ongoing process such as production, service,
and so on.
(iii) To enhance the quality of decision-making by enumerating alternative courses of
action in a decision-making process, and selecting an appropriate one.
(iv) To satisfy the desire to understand an unknown phenomenon.
(v) To assist in guessing the causes and probable effects of certain characteristics in
given situations.
For any statistical analysis to be useful, the collection and use of input data is extremely
important. One can collect an enormous amount of data on a subject of interest in a
compact and usuable form from the internet. However, the reliability of such data is
always doubtful. Thus, before relying on any interpreted data, either from a computer,
internet or other source, we should study answers to the following questions: (i) Have
data come from an unbaised source, that is, source should not have an interest in supplying
the data that lead to a misleading conclusion, (ii) Do data represent the entire population
under study i.e. how many observations should represent the population, (iii) Do the
data support other evidences already available. Is any evidence missing that may cause to
arrive at a different conclusion? and (iv) Are data support the logical conclusions drawn.
Have we made conclusions which are not supported by data.
Nowadays computers are extensively used for processing data so as to draw logical
conclusions. Since a computer is only a machine used for fast processing of input data,
the output data received are only as accurate as the data that is fed in. The decision-
maker thus needs to be careful that the data he is using comes from a valid source and
evidences that might cause him to arrive at a different conclusion are not missing.
In order to design an experiment or conduct a survey one must understand the
different types of data and their measurement levels.
1.9.1 Types of Data

Statistical data are the outcome of a continuous process of measuring, counting, and/or
observing. These may pertain to several aspects of a phenomenon (or a problem) which
are measurable, quantifiable, countable, or classifiable. While conducting a survey or
making a study, an investigator develops a method to ask several questions to deal with
the variety of characteristics of the given population or universe. These characteristics
which one intends to investigate and analyse are termed as variables. The data, which are
the observed outcomes of these variables, may vary from response to response. Consumer
behaviour (attitude), profit/loss to a company, job satisfaction, drinking and/or smoking
habits, leadership ability, class affiliation or status are examples of a variable.
Table 1.2 summarizes the types of variables which can be studied to yield the observed
outcomes in relation to the nature of data, information, and measurement.
Table 1.2 Nature of Data, Information, and Measurement
Data Type Information Type Measurement Type
Categorical → Do you practice Yoga? Yes No

Discrete → How many books do you have
Numerical in your library? Number
Continuous → What is your height? Centimetres or Inches
It may be noted from Table 1.2 that categorical variables are those which are not ex-
pressed in numerical terms. Sex, religion, and language are a few examples of such
variables. The numerical variables are classified into two categories:
(i) Discrete variables—which can only take certain fixed integer numerical values.
The number of cars sold by Maruti Udyog Ltd. in 2001, or the number of
employees in an organization are examples of discrete variables.
(ii) Continuous variables—which can take any numerical value. Measurement of
height, weight, length, in centimetres/inches, grams/kilograms are a few ex-
amples of continuous variables.
Remark: Discrete data are numerical measurements that arise from a process of count-
Figure 1.4 ing, while continuous data are numerical measurements that arise from a process of mea-
A Flowchart of the Research suring.
Process A flow chart of the research process is shown in Fig. 1.4.
1.10 PRINCIPLES OF MEASUREMENT

Just as there are rules or guidelines that have to be followed to ensure that the wording
of the questionnaire is appropriate to minimize bias, so also are some principles of
measurement that are to be followed to ensure that the data collected are appropriate to
test our hypothesis. These principles of measurement ecompass the scales and scaling
techniques used in measuring concepts, as well as the assessment of reliability and valid-
ity of the measures used. Appropriate scales have to be used depending on the type of
data that need to be obtained. Once data are obtained, the “goodness of data” is assessed
through tests of validity and reliability. Validity established how well a technique, or a
process measures a particular concept, the reliability indicates how stably and consis-
tently the technique measures the variable.
In general, the principles of measurement (scaling) has three characteristics:

1. Numbers are ordered. One number is less than, equal to or greater than another
number.
2. Difference between numbers are ordered. The difference between any pair of
numbers is greater than, less than or equal to the difference between any other
pair of numbers.
3. The number series has a unique origin indicated by the number zero.
The combinations of these characteristics of order, distance and origin provide the
following widely used classification of measurement scales:
Scale of Characteristics of Basic Impirical Operation

Measurement Measurement
• Nominal No order, distance Determination of categorical information.

or unique origin Numbers only identify groups which can-
not be ordered
• Ordinal Order but no distance Determination of greater or lesser values.
or unique origin Num-bers allow ranking but no arith-
metic
• Interval Both order and distance Determination of equality of intervals or
but not unique differences. Intervals between numbers
are meaningful
• Ratio Order, distance and Determination of equality of ratios. Inter-
unique origin vals between numbers are meaningful and
also their ratio as the lowest value is a
meaningful zero.
Nominal Scale In nominal scaling the numerical values are either named or categorized
Nominal scale: A scale of
in such as way that these values are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. For measurement for a variable
example, shirt numbers in a football or cricket match are measured at a nominal level. A that uses a label (or name) to
player wearing a shirt number 24 is not more of anything than a player wearing a shirt identify an attribute of an
number 12 and is certainly not twice the number 12. In other words, if we use numbers element of the data set.
to identify categories, they are recognised as levels only and have no qualitative value.
Nominal classifications may consists of any other number to separate groups if such
groups are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. For example, based on a nominal
scale: each of the respondent has to fit into one of the six categories of nationality and
scale will allow computation of the percentage of respondents who fit into each of these
six categories
• Indian • Srilankan
• Nepalise • Bhottanis
• Pakistanis • Others
Nominal scale is said to be least powerful among four scales because this scale sug-
gest no order or distance relationship and have no arithmetic origin. Few examples of
nominal scaling are: sex, blood type, religion, nationality, etc.
Nominal scale is usually used for obtaining personal data such as gender, place of
work, and so on, where grouping of individuals or objects is useful, as illustrated below.
1. Your gender 2. Your place of work
• Male • Production • Finance
• Female • Sales • Personnel
Ordinal Scale In ordinal scaling the numerical values are categorised to denote qualita- Ordinal scale: A scale of
tive differences among the various categories as well as rank-ordered the categories in measurement for a variable
some meaningful way according to some preference. The preferences would be ranked that is used to rank (or
from best to worst, first to last, numbered 1, 2, and so on. order) observations in the
The ordinal scale not only indicates the differences in the given items but also gives data set.
some information as to how respondents distinguish among these items by rank order-
ing them. However, the ordinal scale does not give any indication of the magnitude of
the differences among the ranks, i.e. this scale implies a statement of ‘greater than’ or
‘less than’ (an equality statement is also acceptable) without stating how much greater or
less. The real difference between ranks 1 and 2 may be more or less than the difference
between ranks 4 and 5. The interval between values is not interpretable in an ordinal
measure.
Besides ‘greater than’ and ‘less than’ measurements other measurements such as
‘superior to’, ‘happier than’ or ‘above’ may also be used as ordinal scale.
Oridinal scale is usually used to rate the preference or usage of various brands of a
product by individuals and to rank individuals, objects, or events. For example, rank
the following personal computers with respect to their usage in your office, assigning
the number 1 to the most used system, 2 to the next most used, an so on. If particular
system is not used at all in your office, put a 0 against it.
IBM/AT Compaq
IBM/XT AT&T
Apple II Tandy 2000
Macintosh Zenith
Interval scale: A scale of Interval Scale An interval scale allows us to perform certain arithmetical operations on
measurement for a variable the data collected from the respondents. Whereas the nominal scale only allows us to
in which the interval qualitatively distinguish groups by categorizing them into mutually exclusive and collec-
between observations is
tively exhaustive sets, the oridinal scale allows us to rank-order the preferences, and the
expressed in terms of a fixed
standard unit of measure- interval scale allows us to compute the mean and the standard deviation of the responses
ment. on the variables. In other words, the interval scale not only classify individuals accord-
ing to certain categories and determines order of these categories; it also measure the
magnitude of the differences in the preferences among the individuals.
In interval measurement the distance between attributes does have meaning. For
example, when we measure temperature (in Fahrenheit), the distance from 30–40 is
same as distance from 70–80. The interval values in interpretable. Because of this, it
makes sense to compute an average of an interval variable, where it doesn’t make sense to
do so for oridinal scales.
Interval scale is used when responses to various questions that measure a variable
can be determined on a five-point (or seven-point or any other number of points) scale.
For example, respondents may be asked to indicate their response to each of the ques-
tions by circling the number that best describes their feeling.
Strongly Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly

Disagree Agree
1 2 3 4 5
1. My job offers me a chance to test my 1 2 3 4 5

abilities.
2. Mastering this job meant a lot to me. 1 2 3 4 5
3. Doing this job well is a reward in itself. 1 2 3 4 5
4. Considering the time spent on the job, I 2 3 4 5
feel thoroughly familiar with my tasks
and responsibilities.
Ratio scale: A scale of Ratio Scale The ratio scale has an absolute measurement point. Thus the ratio scale not
measurement for a variable only measures the magnitude of the differences between points on the scale but also
that has interval measurable provides the proportions in the differences. It is the most powerful of the four scales
is standard unit of measure-
because it has a unique zero origin. For example, a person weighing 90 kg is twice as
ment and a meaningful
zero, i.e. the ratio of two
heavy as one who weighs 45 kg. Since multiplying or dividing both of these numbers (90
values is meaningful. and 45) by any given number will preserve the ratio of 2 : 1. The measure of central
tendency of the ratio scale could either be arithmetic or geometric mean and the mea-
sure of dispersion could either be standard deviation or variance, or coefficient of varia-
tion.
Ratio scales are usually used in organizational research when exact figures on objective
(as opposed to subjective) factors are desired. Few examples are as under:
1. How many other organizations did you work for before joining this job?
2. Please indicate the number of children you have in each of the following catego-
ries:
• over 6 years but under 12

• 12 years and over
3. How many retail outlets do you operate?
The responses could range from 0 to any figure.
Graphic Rating Scale A graphical representation helps the respondent to indicate

the response to a particular question by placing a mark at the appropriate point on
the line as in the adjoining example.
Itemized Rating Scale This scale helps the respondent to choose one option that is
most relevant for answering certain questions as in the following examples.
(a) Not at all Somewhat Moderately Very much

interested interested interested interested
How would you rate your interest 1 2 3 4

in changing organizational policies?
(b) Extremely Rather Quite Very Excellent

Poor Poor Well Well
How well is the new 1 2 3 4 5

distribution channel working?
Other Measurement Scales

(a) Continuous rating scales
Type A
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Unfavourable Neutral Favourable
Type B
Unfavourable Favourable
(b) Itemized rating scale
Type A
Favourable Unfavourable
_________ : _________ : _________ : _________ : _________ : _________ : _________
extremely quite slightly neither slightly quite extremely
Type B
_________ : _________ : _________ : _________ : _________ : _________ : _________
Type C
Favourable
Unfavourable
_________ : _________ : _________ : _________ : _________ : _________ : _________
7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Type D
7 6 5 4 3 2 1
(c) Stapel scale

Perfectly 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Not at all
For example describe your visit to Shimla during January
safe _____ boring _____
pleasant _____ status _____
risky _____ enjoyable _____
necessary _____ old _____
useless _____ valuable _____
attractive _____ cold _____
Similarly, given on the next page are five characteristics of an automobile. Allocate
100 points among the characteristics such that the allocation represents the importance
of each characteristic to you. The more points a characteristic receives, the more impor-
tant it is. If the characteristic is not at all important, it is possible to assign zero points. If
a characteristic is twice as important as some other, then it should receive twice as many
points.
Characteristics Number of Points
• Styling 50
• Ride 10
• Petrol mileage 35
• Warranty 5
• Closeness to dealer 0
100
(d) Semantic differential scale
Describe going to Delhi during the summer vacations:
important _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ unimportant
worthless _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ valuable
good _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ bad
rewarding _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ punishing
useful _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ useless
pessimistic _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ optimistic
hard _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ soft
boring _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ interesting
active _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ passive
compulsory _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ voluntary
serious _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ humorous
pleasant _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ : _____ unpleasant
1.11 SOURCES OF DATA

The choice of a data collection method from a particular source depends on the facilities
available, the extent of accuracy required in analyses, the expertise of the investigator,
the time span of the study, and the amount of money and other resources required for
data collection. When the data to be collected are very voluminous and require huge
amounts of money, manpower, and time, reasonably accurate conclusions can be drawn
by observing even a small part of the population provided the concept of sampling is
used objectively.
Data sources are classified as (i) primary sources, and (ii) secondary sources.
1.11.1 Primary Data Sources

Individuals, focus groups, and/or panels of respondents specifically decided upon and
set up by the investigator for data collection are examples of primary data sources. Any
one or a combination of the following methods can be chosen to collect primary data:
(i) Direct personal observations
(ii) Direct or indirect oral interviews
(iii) Administrating questionnaires
The methods which may be used for primary data collection are briefly discussed
below:
Observation In observational studies, the investigator does not ask questions to seek
clarifications on certain issues. Instead he records the behaviour, as it occurs, of an event
in which he is interested. Sometimes mechanical devices are also used to record the
desired data.
Studies based on observations are best suited for researches requiring non-self re-
port descriptive data. That is, when respondents’ behaviours are to be understood with-
out asking them to part with the needed information. Diverse opinions in the diagnosis
of a particular disease could be an example of an observational study.
Certain difficulties do arise during the collection of such data on account of (i) the
observer’s training, philosophy, opinions, and expectations, (ii) the interdependence of
observations and inferences, and (iii) the inadequacies of the sense organs causing sig-
nificant variations in the observations of the same phenomenon.
Interviewing Interviews can be conducted either face-to-face or over telephone. Such
interviews provide an opportunity to establish a rapport with the interviewer and help
extract valuable information. Direct interviews are expensive and time-consuming if a
big sample of respondents is to be personally interviewed. Interviewers’ biases also come
in the way. Such interviews should be conducted at the exploratory stages of research to
handle concepts and situational factors.
Telephone interviews help establish contact with interviewers spread over distantly
separated geographic locations and obtain responses quickly. This method is effective only
when the interviewer has specific questions to ask the needs and responses promptly. Since
the interviewer in this case cannot observe the non-verbal responses at the other end, the
respondent can unilaterally terminate the interview without warning or explanation.
Questionnaire It is a formalized set of questions for extracting information from the
target respondents. The form of the questions should correspond to the form of the Questionnaire: A set of
required information. The three general forms of questions are: dichotomous (yes/no re- questions for extracting
sponse type); multiple choice, and open-ended. A questionnaire can be administered per- information from the target
respondents.
sonally or mailed to the respondents. It is an efficient method of collecting primary data
when the investigator knows what exactly is required and how to measure such variables
of interest as:
• Behaviour—past, present, or intended.
• Demographic characteristics—age, sex, income, and occupation.
• Level of knowledge.
• Attitudes and opinions.
As such there are no set principles that must be used to design a questionnaire.
However, general principles of questionnaire design based on numerous studies and
experiences of survey researchers are shown in Fig. 1.5. A good questionnaire does,
however, require the application of common sense, concern for the respondent, a clear
concept of the information needed, and a thorough pre-testing of the questionnaire.
1. The wording and design of questions The writing of good questions is an art, and a
time-consuming art at that! In order to obtain valid and reliable responses one needs
well-worded questions. There are a number of pitfalls to be avoided:
• Open Ended Versus Closed Questions: Open-ended questions allow respondents to
answer them in any way they choose. Examples of an open-ended question are :
(i) State five things that are interesting and challenging in the job,
(ii) What you like about your supervisors or work environment,
(iii) What is you opinion about investment portfolio of your organization.
Figure 1.5
Principles of Questionnaire Design
A closed question, would ask the respondents to make choices among a set of alternatives.
For instance, instead of asking the respondent to state any five aspects of the job that are
interesting and challenging, the researcher might list ten or fifteen characteristics that
might seem interesting or challenging in jobs and ask the respondent to rank the first
five among these.
Closed questions help the respondent to make quick decision by making a choice
among the several alternatives that are provided. They also help the researcher to code
the information easily for subsequent analysis. Of course, care has to be taken to ensure
that the alternatives are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. If there are over-
lapping categories, or if all possible alternatives are not given (i.e., the categories are not
exhaustive), the respondents might get confused and the advantage of making a quick
decision may be lost.
• Positively and Negatively Worded Questions: Instead of phrasing all questions posi-
tively, it is advisable to include some negatively worded questions also, so that it
minimizes the tendency in respondents to mechanically circle the points toward
one end of the scale. For example, a set of six questions are used to measure the
variable ‘perceived success’ on a five-point scale, with 1 being ‘very low’ and 5 being
‘very high’ on the scale. A respondent who is not particularly interested in com-
pleting the questionnaire is more likely to stay involved and remain alert while
answering the questions when positively and negatively worded questions are in-
terspersed in the questionnaire. For instance, if the respondent had circled 5 for a
positively worded question such as, ‘I feel I have been able to accomplish a number
of different things in my job’ he cannot circle number 5 again to the negatively
worded questions, ‘I do not feel I am very effective in my job.’ The use of double
negatives and excessive they tend to confuse respondents. For instance, it is better
to say ‘Coming to work is not great fun’ than to say ‘Not coming to work is greater
fun than coming to work.’ Likewise, it is better to say ‘The strong people need no
tonics’ than to say ‘Only the strong should be given no tonics.’
• Double-Barreled Questions: A question that lends itself to different possible answers to
its subparts is called a double-barreled question. Such questions should be avoided
and two or more separate questions should be ask. For example, the question “Do
you think there is a good market for the product and that it will sell well? could
bring a ‘yes’ response to the first part (i.e., there is a good market for the product)
and a ‘no’ response to the latter part (i.e., it will not sell well—for various other
reasons). In this case, it would be better to ask two questions such as: (a) ‘Do you
think there is a good market for the product?’ (b) ‘Do you think the product will sell
well?’
• Ambigious Questions: Questions that can be interpreted different by different re-
spondents should be avoided. For example, for the question such as: ‘To what
extent would you say you are happy?’, the respondent might not be sure whether
the question refers to his feelings at the workplace, or at home, or in general.
Because, respondent might presume that the question relates to the workplace. Yet
the researcher might have intended to inquire about the, overall degree of satisfac-
tion that the respondent experiences in everyday life–a feeling not specific to the
workplace alone or at home.
• Level of Wording: It is important to tailor the level of wording of questions in
accordance with the understanding respondents’. Jargons are to be avoided, and it
should be established in the pilot study that the respondents understand the con-
cepts. For instance, asking questions about ‘Trisomy 21’ might be inappropriate
while ‘mongolism’ or ‘Down syndrome’ could be intelligible. Using double nega-
tives should be avoided. In general, the questions should be simple and concise.
• Biased and Leading Questions: The wording of the questions should not lead the
respondent to feel committed to respond in a certain way. For example, the ques-
tion ‘How often do you go to church?’ may lead the respondent to respond in a way
that is not entirely truthful if they, in fact, never go to church. Not only can the
wording of a question be leading but the response format may also be leading. For
example, if a ‘never’ response were excluded from the available answers to the
above question, the respondent would be led to respond in an inaccurate way.
Bias might also arise from possible carry-over effects from answering a pattern of
questions. For instance, a questionnaire on health workers’ attitudes to abortion might
include the questions ‘Do you value human life?’ followed by ‘Do you think unborn
babies should be murdered in their mothers’ wombs?’. In this case, the respondent is
being led both by the context in which the second question is asked and the bias involved
in the emotional wording of the questions. Surely, one would have to be a monster to
answer ‘yes’ to the second question, given the way it was asked.
Finally, it should be kept in mind that even a good questionnaire might be invalidly
administered. For instance, a survey on ‘Attitudes to migration’ might be answered less
than honestly by respondents if the interviewer is obviously of immigrant background.
2. The structure of questionnaire A questionnaire may be structured in different ways,
but typically the following components are included:
• Introductory Statement: The introductory statement describes the purpose of the
questionnaire, the information sought, and how it is to be used. It also introduces
the researchers and explains whether the information is confidential and/or anony-
mous.
• Demographic Questions: It is usual to collect information about the respondents,
including details such as age, sex, education, and so on. It is best to position these
questions first as they are easily answered and serve as a ‘warm-up’ to what follows.
• Factual Questions: It is generally easier for respondents to answer direct factual
questions such as, ‘Do you have a driver’s licence?’ than to answer opinion ques-
tions. Often, this type of question is positioned early on in the questionnaire—also
to help ‘warm up’!
(iv) Opinion Questions: Questions that require reflection on the part of the respon-
dent are usually positioned after the demographic and factual questions.
• Closing Statements and Return Instructions: The closing statements in a questionnaire
usually thank the respondent for their participation, invite the respondent to take
up any issues they feel have not been satisfactorily addressed in the questionnaire,
and provide information on how to return the questionnaire.
It is best to avoid complicated structures involving, for example, many conditional

questions such as ‘If you answered yes to Question 6 and no to Question 9, please answer
Question 10’. Conditional questions usually confuse respondents and ought be avoided
where possible.
3. Categories of questionnaires
• Structured Questionnaire: It is a formal list of questions to be posed to the respondents
in a predetermined order. The responses permitted are also completely predeter-
mined. Such questions are often called closed questions since the respondents are asked
to make choices among a set of alternatives given by the investigator.
A structured questionnaire can also be disguised and non-disguised. This classification
is based on whether the objectives of the study are disclosed or not disclosed to the
respondents. A structured undisguised questionnaire is one where the purpose of the study
and the particulars of the sponsor are disclosed to the respondent. In such cases, the
questionnaire contains a list of questions in a predetermined order and freedom of
response is limited only to the stated alternatives. Such questions help the respondent
to make quick decisions by making a choice among the given alternatives. The alterna-
tives provided have to be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
In the case of a structured disguised questionnaire, the objectives of the study and its
sponsor are not disclosed to the respondents. Such questionnaires are not often used
because it is felt necessary to have the respondents taken into confidence so that they
appreciate the relevance of the desired information needed and willingly offer accu-
rate answers.
• Unstructured Questionnaire: In this case, the investigator does not offer a limited set of
response choices, but provides only a frame of reference within which the respon-
dents are expected to answer. Such questionnaires are sometimes referred to as open-
ended questions. Examples of open-ended questions are:
(i) State three things that are interesting and challenging in your job.
(ii) State about the behaviour of a supervisor or the work environment.
These questions encourages the respondents to share as much information as possible
in a free environment. The investigator may also provide extra guidance to the re-
spondents by using a set of questions to promote discussion and elaboration.
The unstructured questionnaire is used in exploratory research studies or where
the investigator is dealing with a complex phenomenon which does not lend itself to
structured questioning. Such questionnaires are also useful when the investigator
requires to know the respondent’s emotions, needs, motivation level, attitude, and
values. Obviously, using a questionnaire of this type, needs more time per interview
and, therefore, raises the cost of the study. Editing and tabulation of these question-
naires also impose practical difficulties. Interestingly, unstructured questionnaires
could also be of two types— disguised and undisguised.
Examples of questionnaire design
Two sets of questionnaire having most of the qualities of a good questionnaire are as
under:
Questionnaire 1: Consumer Preferences
Name: _________________________________________________ Age: ______________________
Address: ___________________________________________________________________________
City: _______________________________ Pin: _________________ Phone: __________________
Marital status: Married Single Occupation: __________________
Family type: Joint Nuclear
Family members: Adults Children
Family income: Less than 10,000 10,000 to 15,000
15,000 to 20,000 More than 20,000
Remarks (if any):
Place and Date:
1. What kind of food do you normally eat at home?

North Indian South Indian Mughlai Chinese
Continental Italian Fast Food Others ________
2. How frequently do you eat out?
In a week Once Twice Thrice More than thrice
In a fortnight Once Twice Thrice More than thrice
In a month Once Twice Thrice More than thrice
3. You usually go out with:
Family Friends Colleagues Others _________
4. Any specific days when you go out:
Weekdays Weekends Holidays Special Occassions
No specific days
5. You generally go out for:
Lunch Snacks Dinner Party/Picnics
Others _________
6. Where do you usually go:
Restaurant Chinese joint Fast food joint Others _________
7. Who decides on the place to go:
Husband Wife Children Others _________
8. How much do you spend on eating out (one time):
Below 200 200-500 500-800 More than 800
9. What are the factors that determine your choice for the restaurant/joint?
Rank the following from 1-9 (9-highest score):
Restaurant Chinese joint Fast food joint Others _______
10. Name the fast food giants that you are aware of (in Delhi):
Nirula’s Wimpy’s McDonalds Pizza Hut
Dominos Slice of Italy Pizza Express Others _________
11. How frequently do you go out/order for fast food?
Very frequently Often Sometimes Never
12. What do you prefer: Going Out Home Delivery Take Away
13. Which of the places mentioned above in Q.10 are visited by you—(and why):
(a) Most frequently ________________________________________
(b) Sometimes ____________________________________________
(c) Never _________________________________________________
14. What are the distinguishing factors you look for in fast food service:
(Rank from 1 to 8, 8-highest score)
Quality Service Location Wide Menu Range
Price Taste Home Delivery Others _________
15. What your order normally consists of:
Pizza Burgers Footlong Curries & Breads
Soups Pasta Desert Others _________
16. The price paid by you for the above is:
Outlets Very High Little High Just Right

Nirula’s
Wimpy’s
Pizza Hut
Domino’s
Slice of Italy
Pizza Express
McDonalds
Others
17. If you feel that the price paid by you is very high, what should be the price accord-
ing to you:
Items Vegetarian Non-Vegetarian

Pizza
Burger
Footlong
Others
Questionnaire 2: Journal outlets for Production/Operations

Management (POM) Research
If you have not received a Ph.D. degree, and have not accepted a full-time teaching position yet,
mark the tick (9) and stop. You need not complete the questionnaire.
If you have not received a Ph.D. degree but have accepted a full-time teaching position some-
where, mark the tick (9). Skip Question 11, and answer all other questions.
1. How relevant do you consider the journal as a Production/Operations Management (POM)-
related research outlet? Use the scale below.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Most Quite Relevant Somewhat Not
relevant relevant relevant relevant
2. Based on the quality of the POM-related articles published, how would you rate the journal?
(Use the scale below)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0
Level Level Level Level Level Not
A A– B B– C possible
to rate
3. How does your institution/college rate this journal? (Use the scale in Question 2)
4. How many articles have you authored or coauthored in this journal (include any articles that
are currently in the press)?
Academy of Management Journal _____ _____ _____ _____ _____
Academy of Management Review _____ _____ _____ _____ _____
Computers and Industrial Engineering _____ _____ _____ _____ _____
Computers and Operations Research _____ _____ _____ _____ _____
Decision Sciences _____ _____ _____ _____ _____
European Journal of Operational Research _____ _____ _____ _____ _____
Harvard Business Review _____ _____ _____ _____ _____
Interfaces _____ _____ _____ _____ _____
Journal of Operations Management _____ _____ _____ _____ _____
Journal of Operational Research Society _____ _____ _____ _____ _____
Journal of Purchasing and Materials Management _____ _____ _____ _____ _____
Management Science _____ _____ _____ _____ _____
Naval Research Logistics Quarterly _____ _____ _____ _____ _____
Omega _____ _____ _____ _____ _____
Operations Research _____ _____ _____ _____ _____
Production and Inventory Management _____ _____ _____ _____ _____
Production and Operations Management _____ _____ _____ _____ _____
(List below any other journal that you consider related to POM research)
_____________________________ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____
_____________________________ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____
_____________________________ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____
5. Using the scale below, please indicate the importance of the following factors in your assess-
ment of the quality of a POM journal.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Most Very Important Somewhat Not
important important important important
at all
____ Acceptance rate ____ Number of issues per year
____ Methodological rigour of the published work ____ Age of the journal
____ Editor and editorial board members ____ Professional organization that
sponsors the journal
____ Authors who publish in the journal ____ Other (please specify)
6. At this stage of your career, how important to your career advancement is the quality of the
journals in which your articles appear? (Use the scale below)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
at all
7. At this stage of your career, how important to your career advancement is the quality of
articles you author/coauthor? (use the scale below)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
at all
8. How much weightage does your institution/college place on research and publication in
evaluating your annual performance? ______ (use a number between 0 and 100%)
9. What business degree(s) is (are) offered by the institution in which you teach? (tick all that
apply)
Undergraduate Masters level (MBA, MCA, M.Tech, etc.)
Doctoral; (M.Phil, Ph.D.)
10. What is your academic rank?
Full professor Associate professor Assistant professor
Other (e.g., instructor, lecturer, etc.)
11. In which year was your Ph.D. degree granted? ______
12. How many POM-related articles have you authored/coauthored in referenced journals? (in-
clude any articles that are currently in the press) ________
1.11.2 Secondary Data Sources

Secondary data refer to those data which have been collected earlier for some purpose
other than the analysis currently being undertaken. Besides newspapers and business
magazines, other sources of such data are as follows:
1. External secondary data sources
• Government publications, which include
(i) The National Accounts Statistics, published by the Central Statistical Organi-
zation (CSO). It contains estimates of national income for several years, growth
rate, and rate on major economic activities such as agriculture, industry,
trade, transport, and so on;
(ii) Wholesale Price Index, published by the office of the Economic Advisor,
Ministry of Commerce and Industry;
(iii) Consumer Price Index;
(iv) Reserve Bank of India bulletins;
(v) Economic Survey.
• Non-Government publications include publications of various industrial and trade
associations such as
(i) The Indian Cotton Mills Association
(ii) The various Chambers of Commerce

(iii) The Bombay Stock Exchange, which publishes a directory containing finan-
cial accounts, key profitability and other relevant data.
• Various syndicate services such as Operations Research Group (ORG). The In-
dian Market Research Bureau (IMRB) also collects and tabulates abundant market-
ing information to suit the requirements of individual firms, making the same
available at regular intervals.
• International organizations which publish data are:
(i) The International Labour Organization (ILO)—which publishes data on the
total and active population, employment, unemployment, wages, and con-
sumer prices.
(ii) The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)—
which publishes data on foreign trade, industry, food, transport, and science
and technology.
(iii) The International Monetary Fund (IMF)—which publishes reports on na-
tional and international foreign exchange regulations and other trade barri-
ers, foreign trade, and economic developments.
2. Internal secondary data sources The data generated within an organization in the
process of routine business activities, are referred to as internal secondary data. Finan-
cial accounts, production, quality control, and sales records are examples of such data.
However, data originating from one department of an organization may not be useful for
another department in its original form. It is, therefore, desirable to condense such data
into a form needed by the other.
Figure 1.6
Flow Chart Showing the Procedure
for Evaluating Secondary Data
Advantages and Disadvantages of Secondary Data

Secondary data have their own advantages and disadvantages. The advantages are that
such data are easy to collect and involve relatively lesser time and cost. Deficiencies and
gaps can be identified easily and steps taken promptly to overcome the same.
Their disadvantage is that the unit of measurement may not be the same as required
by the users. For example, the size of a firm may be stated in terms of either number of
employees, gross sales, gross profit, or total paid-up capital.
The scale of measurement may also be different from the one desired. For example,
dividend declared by various companies may have breakup of ‘less than 10 per cent’
‘10–15 per cent’; ‘15–20 per cent,’ and so on. For a study requiring to know the num-
ber of companies who may have declared dividend of ‘16 per cent and above’, such
secondary data are of no use.
Robert W. Joselyn in his book Designing and Marketing Research Project, Petrocelli/
Charter, 1977, New York, suggested an approach for evaluating the usefulness of sec-
ondary data and understanding their limitations. The flow chart showing the steps to be
taken for evaluating the secondary data is shown in Fig. 1.6.
After data have been collected from a representative sample of the population, the
next step is to analyse the data so that the research hypotheses can be tested. For this,
some preliminary steps need to followed. These steps help to prepare the data for analy- Figure 1.7
sis, ensure that the data obtained are reasonably good, and allow the results to be mean- Flow Diagram of Data
ingfully interpreted. A flow diagram in Fig. 1.7 shows the data analysis process. Analysis Process
Conceptual Questions 1B
30. A manager of a large corporation has recommended that 33. Describe the three general forms of questions that can be
a Rs 1000 raise be given to keep a valued subordinate included in a questionnaire and give an example of each in
from moving to another company. What internal and ex- the context of a political poll.
ternal sources of data might be used to decide whether 34. One can say that statistical inference includes an interest in
such a salary increase is appropriate? statistical description as well, since the ultimate purpose of
31. In the area of statistical measurement instruments such as statistical inference is to describe population data. How
questionnaires, reliability refers to the consistency of the then, does statistical inference differ from statistical de-
measuring instrument and validity refers to the accuracy scription? Discuss.
of the instrument. Thus, if a questionnaire yields compa- 35. In a recent study of causes of death in men 60 years of age
rable or similar results when completed by two equivalent and older, a sample of 120 men indicated that 48 died as a
groups of respondents, then the questionnaire can be de- result of some form of heart disease.
scribed as being reliable. Does the fact that an instrument (a) Develop a descriptive statistic that can be used as an
is reliable guarantee that it is also a valid instrument? Dis- estimate of the percentage of men 60 years of age or
cuss. older who die from some form of heart disease
32. Describe the three basic steps involved in the develop- (b) Are the data on the causes of death qualitative or
ment and use of a written questionnaire prior to actual quantitative?
data analysis. (c) Discuss the role of statistical inference in this type of
medical research
36. Determine whether each of the following random vari- (c) Why would a sample be used in this situation? Ex-
ables is categorical or numerical. If it is numerical, deter- plain.
mine whether the phenomenon of interest is discrete or 39. Suppose the following information is obtained from a
continuous. person on his application for a home loan from a bank:
(a) Amount of time the personal computer is used per (a) Place of residence: GK II, New Delhi
week (b) Type of residence: Single-family home
(b) Number of persons in the household who use the (c) Date of birth: 14 August 1975
personal computer (d) Monthly income: Rs 25,000
(c) Amount of money spent on clothing in the last month (e) Occupation: Systems Engineer
(d) Favourite shopping centre. (f) Employer: Telecom company
(e) Amount of time spent shopping for clothing in the (g) Number of years at job: 5
last month (h) Other income: Rs 30,000 per year
37. State whether each of the following variables is qualitative (i) Marital status: Married
or quantitative and indicate the measurement scale that is (j) Number of children: 1
appropriate for each. (k) Loan requested: Rs 5,00,000
(a) Age (l) Term of Loan: 10 years
(b) Gender (m) Other loan: Car
(c) Class rank (n) Amount of other loan: Rs 1,00,000
(d) Make of automobile Classify each of the 14 responses by type of data and level
(e) Annual sales of measurement.
(f) Soft-drink size (small, medium, large) 40. Suppose that the Rotary Club was planning to survey
(g) Earnings per share 2000 of its members primarily to determine the percent-
(h) Method of payment (cash, check, credit card) age of its membership that currently own more than one
38. A firm is interested in testing the advertising effectiveness car.
of a new television commercial. As part of the test, the (a) Describe both the population and the sample of in-
commercial is shown on a 6:30 p.m. local news programme terest to the club
in Delhi. Two days later, a market research firm conducts (b) Describe the type of data that the club primarily wishes
a telephone survey to obtain information on recall rates to collect
(percentage of viewers who recall seeing the commercial) (c) Develop the questionnaire needed by writing a series
and impressions of the commercial. of five categorical questions and five numerical
(a) What is the population for this study? questions that you feel would be appropriate for this
(b) What is the sample for this study? survey
Chapter Concepts Quiz
True or False
1. The scale of measurement of a variable is a nominal scale 10. Descriptive statistical methods are used for presenting and
when data are labels to identify an attribute of the ele- characterizing data. (T/F)
ment. (T/F) 11. A statistic is a summary measure that describes the char-
2. The statistical method used to summarize data depends acteristic of a population. (T/F)
upon whether the data are qualitative or quantitative. (T/F) 12. A descriptive measure computed from a sample of the
3. Statistical studies can be classified as either experimental population is called a parameter. (T/F)
or observational. (T/F) 13. Enumerative studies involve decision-making regarding
4. Learning statistics does not help to improve processes. a population and/or its characteristics. (T/F)
(T/F)
14. Analytical studies involve taking some action on a process
5. Statistics cannot be misused. (T/F) to improve performance in the future. (T/F)
6. All facts numerically stated are not statistics. (T/F)
15. Data are needed to satisfy our curiosity. (T/F)
7. Statistical thinking focuses on ways to understand, man- 16. A continuous variable can also be used for quantitative
age, and reduce variation. (T/F) data when every value within some interval is a possible
8. An average value computed from the set of all observa- result. (T/F)
tions in the population is called a statistic. (T/F) 17. A summary measure computed from sample data is called
9. Inferential statistics help in generalizing the results of a statistic. (T/F)
sample to the entire population. (T/F) 18. The summary numbers for either a population or a sample
are called descriptive statistics. (T/F)
Concepts Quiz Answers
1. T 2. T 3. T 4. F 5. F 6. T 7. T 8. F 9. T
10. T 11. F 12. F 13. T 14. T 15. T 16. T 17. T 18. T
It’s not the figures them-
selves . . ., it’s what you do
C h a p t e r 2 with them that matters.

—K. A. C. Manderville
If you torture the data long
enough, it will confess.
—Ronald Coase
Data Classification, Tabulation and

Presentation
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
After studying this chapter, you should be able to

z understand types of data and the basis of their classification.
z use techniques of organizing data in tabular and graphical form in order to
enhance data analysis and interpretation.
2.1 INTRODUCTION
In Chapter 1, we learned how to collect data through primary and/or secondary sources.
Whenever a set of data that we have collected contains a large number of observations,
the best way to examine such data is to present it in some compact and orderly form.
Such a need arises because data contained in a questionnaire are in a form which does
not give any idea about the salient features of the problem under study. Such data are not
directly suitable for analysis and interpretation. For this reason the data set is organized
and summarized in such a way that patterns are revealed and are more easily interpreted.
Such an arrangement of data is known as the distribution of the data. Distribution is
important because it reveals the pattern of variation and helps in a better understanding
of the phenomenon the data present.
2.2 CLASSIFICATION OF DATA

Classification of data is the process of arranging data in groups/classes on the basis of
certain properties. The classification of statistical data serves the following purposes:
(i) It condenses the raw data into a form suitable for statistical analysis.
(ii) It removes complexities and highlights the features of the data.
(iii) It facilitates comparisons and in drawing inferences from the data. For example,
if university students in a particular course are divided according to sex, their
results can be compared.
27
(iv) It provides information about the mutual relationships among elements of a

data set. For example, based on literacy and criminal tendency of a group of
peoples, it can be established whether literacy has any impact or not on criminal
tendency.
Figure 2.1 (v) It helps in statistical analysis by separating elements of the data set into
Tabular and Graphical Methods For homogeneous groups and hence brings out the points of similarity and
Summarizing Data dissimilarity.
2.2.1 Requisites of Ideal Classification

The classification of data is decided after taking into consideration the nature, scope,
and purpose of the investigation. However, an ideal classification should have following
characteristics:
It should be unambiguous It is necessary that the various classes should be so defined
that there is no room for confusion. There must be only one class for each element of the
data set. For example, if the population of the country is divided into two classes, say
literates and illiterates, then an exhaustive definition of the terms used would be essential.
Classes should be exhaustive and mutually exclusive Each element of the data set must
belong to a class. For this, an extra class can be created with the title ‘others’ so as to
accommodate all the remaining elements of the data set.
Each class should be mutually exclusive so that each element must belong to only
one class. For example, classification of students according to the age: below 25 years
and more than 20 years, is not correct because students of age 20 to 25 may belong to
both the classes.
It should be stable The classification of a data set into various classes must be done in
such a manner that if each time an investigation is conducted, it remains unchanged and
hence the results of one investigation may be compared with that of another. For example,
classification of the country’s population by a census survey based on occupation suffers
from this defect because various occupations are defined in different ways in successive
censuses and, as such, these figures are not strictly comparable.
It should be flexible A classification should be flexible so that suitable adjustments can
be made in new situations and circumstances. However, flexibility does not mean instability.
The data should be divided into few major classes which must be further subdivided.
Ordinarily there would not be many changes in the major classes. Only small sub-classes
CHAPTER 2 DATA CLASSIFICATION, TABULATION AND PRESENTATION 29
may need a change and the classification can thus retain the merit of stability and yet
have flexibility.
The term stability does not mean rigidity of classes. The term is used in a relative
sense. One-time classification can not remain stable forever. With change in time, some
classes become obsolete and have to be dropped and fresh classes have to be added. The
classification may be called ideal if it can adjust itself to these changes and yet retain its
stability.
2.2.2 Basis of Classification

Statistical data are classified after taking into account the nature, scope, and purpose of
an investigation. Generally, data are classified on the basis of the following four bases:
Geographical Classification In geographical classification, data are classified on the basis
of geographical or locational differences such as—cities, districts, or villages between
various elements of the data set. The following is an example of a geographical distribution
City : Mumbai Kolkata Delhi Chennai
Population density : 654 685 423 205
(per square km)
Such a classification is also known as spatial classification. Geographical classifications
are generally listed in alphabetical order. Elements in the data set are also listed by the
frequency size to emphasize the importance of various geographical regions as in ranking
the metropolitan cities by population density. The first approach is followed in case of
reference tables while the second approach is followed in the case of summary tables.
Chronological Classification When data are classified on the basis of time, the classification
is known as chronological classification. Such classifications are also called time series
because data are usually listed in chronological order starting with the earliest period.
The following example would give an idea of chronological classification:
Year : 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
Population : 31.9 36.9 43.9 54.7 75.6 85.9 98.6
(crore)
Qualitative Classification In qualitative classification, data are classified on the basis of
descriptive characteristics or on the basis of attributes like sex, literacy, region, caste, or
education, which cannot be quantified. This is done in two ways:
(i) Simple classification: In this type of classification, each class is subdivided
into two sub-classes and only one attribute is studied such as: male and female;
blind and not blind, educated and uneducated, and so on.
(ii) Manifold classification: In this type of classification, a class is subdivided into
more than two sub-classes which may be sub-divided further. An example of
this form of classification is shown in the box:
Quantitative Classification In this classification, data are classified on the basis of some
characteristics which can be measured such as height, weight, income, expenditure,
production, or sales.
Quantitative variables can be divided into the following two types. The term variable
refers to any quantity or attribute whose value varies from one investigation to another.
(i) Continuous variable is the one that can take any value within the range of numbers.
Thus the height or weight of individuals can be of any value within the limits. In
such a case data are obtained by measurement,
(ii) Discrete (also called discontinuous) variable is the one whose values change by
steps or jumps and can not assume a fractional value. The number of children
in a family, number of workers (or employees), number of students in a class, are
few examples of a discrete variable. In such a case data are obtained by counting.
The following are examples of continuous and discrete variables in a data set:
Table 2.1
Discrete Series Continuous Series

Number of Children Number of Families Weight (kg) Number of Persons
0 10 100 to 110 10
1 30 110 to 120 20
2 60 120 to 130 25
3 90 130 to 140 35
4 110 140 to 150 50
5 20
320 140
2.3 ORGANIZING DATA USING DATA ARRAY

The best way to examine a large set of numerical data is first to organize and present it in
an appropriate tabular and graphical format.
Table 2.2 presents the total number of overtime hours worked for 30 consecutive
weeks by machinists in a machine shop. The data displayed here are in raw form, that is,
the numerical observations are not arranged in any particular order or sequence.
Table 2.2 Raw Data Pertaining to Total Time Hours Worked by Machinists
94 89 88 89 90 94 92 88 87 85
88 93 94 93 94 93 92 88 94 90
93 84 93 84 91 93 85 91 89 95
These raw data are not amenable even to a simple reading and do not highlight any
characteristic/trend, such as the highest, the lowest, and the average weekly hours. Even
a careful look at these data do not easily reveal any significant trend regarding the
nature and pattern of variations therein. As such no meaningful inference can be drawn,
unless these data are reorganized to make them more useful. For example, if we are to
ascertain a value around which most of the overtime hours cluster, such a value is
difficult to obtain from the raw data.
Moreover, as the number of observations gets large, it becomes more and more
difficult to focus on the specific features in a set of data. Thus we need to organize the
observation so that we can better understand the information that the data are revealing.
The raw data can be reorganized in a data array and frequency distribution. Such
an arrangement enables us to see quickly some of the characteristics of the data we have
collected.
When a raw data set is arranged in rank order, from the smallest to the largest
observation or vice-versa, the ordered sequence obtained is called an ordered array.
Table 2.3 reorganizes data given in Table 2.2 in the ascending order
Table 2.3 Ordered Array of Total Overtime Hours Worked by Machinists
84 84 85 85 87 88 88 88
88 89 89 89 90 90 91 91
92 92 93 93 93 93 93 93
94 94 94 94 94 95
It may be observed that an ordered array does not summarize the data in any way as
the number of observations in the array remains the same. However, a few advantages of
ordered arrays are as under:
Another random document with
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— Oh ! maman, tu sais bien que je joue trop mal pour me faire
entendre !
— Mais non, mais non, tu ne joues pas mal… M. Morère, si c’est
lui qui t’intimide, ne s’attend pas à te voir un talent égal à celui des
Parisiennes qu’il connaît. Va vite au piano. Il n’y a rien de si ridicule
qu’une jeune fille qui se fait prier.
Agnès, à l’accent de sa mère, se sentit vaincue. Comment,
d’ailleurs, se dérober, quand tous se mêlaient d’insister ? Non pas lui,
cependant, qui, après un mot de politesse, se taisait, ayant sans
doute pitié d’elle…, ni le docteur Paul non plus… La lutte était
tellement impossible, qu’elle s’assit au piano, et un silence lourd
s’abattit sur le salon, d’autant plus absolu que le commandant ayant
émis une réflexion, sa femme lui avait lancé d’un ton courroucé :
— Mais, Charles, ta fille va jouer !
Oui, il fallait bien qu’elle jouât. Sa main tremblante frappa une
première note, qui résonna à son oreille autant qu’un formidable
bruit au milieu du recueillement général. Alors une émotion folle
l’envahit, paralysant son humble talent, brouillant les notes sous ses
yeux, précipitant ses doigts nerveux, ne lui laissant plus que le seul
irrésistible désir d’en finir à n’importe quel prix. Et les uns sur les
autres, les sons se précipitaient, éperdus, haletants, comme l’enfant
elle-même, qui était blanche jusqu’aux lèvres quand elle se leva,
ayant fébrilement jeté au hasard ses derniers accords.
Des applaudissements cependant y répondirent, la plupart très
sincères, car le goût musical était tout le contraire de développé
dans le petit cercle de Mme Vésale. Mais que faisait à Agnès cette
banale approbation ? Lui, André Morère, ne pouvait pas s’illusionner
comme les autres… Et quel jugement il devait porter sur elle ! Une
anxiété lui serra le cœur à cette pensée, si forte que ses paupières
s’alourdirent de larmes contenues, qu’elle refoula bravement. Mais
pourtant le courage lui manquait pour se mêler à la conversation,
même pour écouter Cécile, qui, sans nul embarras, campée au
piano, chantait à l’aventure un duo d’opérette avec le lieutenant,
pourvu d’une voix aussi sonore que son talent était inexpérimenté…
Pas plus, elle ne remarquait le regard sérieux du docteur Paul,
attaché sur elle qui demeurait assise un peu à l’écart, dans
l’embrasure de la fenêtre ouverte, le souffle de la nuit soulevant de
petits cheveux autour de son jeune visage pâli, les yeux sans cesse
attirés vers la pendule, dont les aiguilles lui semblaient avancer avec
une rapidité dévorante… Près de dix heures et demie déjà !… A peine
une demi-heure, André Morère avait encore à passer à Beaumont,
chez le commandant…
Mais était-ce possible ? Un mouvement s’était opéré dans les
groupes, parce que la commandante faisait offrir des sirops, et voici
qu’il venait la chercher dans sa solitude, avec ce regard d’ami qu’elle
trouvait si bon de sentir tomber sur elle…
— Mademoiselle Agnès, je vais, je crois, vous paraître bien
indiscret… Mais ne pensez-vous pas que vous abusez un peu du
droit d’être absente, de vous dérober à ceux qui vous entourent ?
Avec son habituelle simplicité, elle dit, secouant un peu la tête :
— Je n’étais pas absente… J’étais bien ici, honteuse d’avoir si mal
joué… Mais il faut m’excuser, j’avais tellement peur !…
— Étions-nous donc si effrayants ?
Aussi sincères que sa pensée, ses lèvres avouèrent avant qu’elle
les eût closes, par un effort de volonté :
— Les autres, non… Mais vous, oui !
Il eut pour elle un chaud sourire qui l’enveloppa comme un
souffle apaisant :
— Si vous saviez quelle parfaite nullité j’ai toujours été devant un
piano, vous ne me feriez certes pas l’honneur immérité de me
considérer comme un juge redoutable… D’ailleurs, je vous assure
que vous êtes beaucoup trop sévère pour vous-même, probablement
parce que vous êtes de l’élite qui voit toujours un « mieux » à
atteindre ! Mais, pour ma part, je suis désolé de vous avoir été une
semblable cause d’émotion. Je sais si bien, par expérience, ce que
sont ces terreurs paniques qui saisissent quand on se sent écouté et
qui font perdre toute possession de soi-même… J’ai ainsi le souvenir
désastreux de l’une de mes premières conférences… Maintenant je
suis aguerri… Soyez bien sûre que vous vous aguerrirez aussi.
Il lui parlait d’un ton si délicatement amical, si encourageant avec
le même bon sourire, que sa détresse s’engourdissait à l’entendre. Et
puis elle le retrouvait tel que jusqu’alors elle l’avait vu à ses côtés !
Elle oubliait le brillant causeur, le penseur, l’écrivain qui étaient en lui
et dont elle avait eu la révélation pendant le dîner… De nouveau, il
lui redisait tout son plaisir d’avoir été guidé par elle dans sa visite à
la cathédrale qui lui laissait un souvenir enthousiaste, et il se plaisait
à en rechercher, avec elle, les merveilles, qu’elle l’avait si fort aidé à
bien pénétrer, ajoutait-il avec une sincérité bien plus absolue qu’elle
ne l’eût jamais supposé.
Et tout bas, elle se prenait à faire inconsciemment le souhait
irréalisable qu’il demeurât longtemps auprès d’elle, occupé d’elle, la
tenant sous l’éclair pensif de son regard. Elle ne voulait plus songer
que les minutes passaient, que l’heure allait sonner où il devrait
partir pour ne revenir peut-être jamais dans l’intimité de leur
demeure…
Et déjà cette heure était arrivée. Le commandant approchait,
disant :
— Mon cher ami, si vraiment vous ne voulez pas accepter notre
hospitalité cette nuit, il est malheureusement l’heure que nous nous
mettions en route vers la gare, afin de ne pas manquer votre train.
— Merci de me le rappeler. Il faut absolument que je sois demain
matin à Paris.
Les lèvres d’Agnès eurent un frémissement. Allons, c’était bien
fini !… Il partait… Alors elle s’aperçut que, jusqu’à la dernière minute,
elle avait espéré contre toute vraisemblance qu’il consentirait à
rester. Que lui avait-il donc fait, cet étranger, pour lui rendre sa
présence ainsi précieuse, pour qu’elle éprouvât ce chagrin parce qu’il
s’éloignait ?…
Avec son aisance d’homme du monde, il prenait congé de tous
les hôtes de Mme Vésale, un peu en hâte, parce que le commandant
le pressait à cause de l’heure avancée. Il s’inclinait devant Mme
Vésale, la remerciant de son accueil en quelques paroles qui la
remplirent de plaisir ; puis il s’arrêta devant Agnès, lui disant, à elle
aussi, merci… Merci de quoi ? De l’avoir rendue bien heureuse durant
quelques heures ?… Et comme elle lui avait tendu la main,
respectueux, il se pencha très bas et l’effleura de ses lèvres, faisant
ainsi monter une fugitive lueur rose au blanc petit visage.
— Allons, Morère, partons ! appelait le commandant. Nous serons
en retard…
Il répéta :
— Partons !…
Il eut un dernier salut… Et la portière du salon retomba derrière
lui. Agnès entendit décroître le bruit de son pas… Puis, lourdement,
retomba la grand’porte qui se refermait. Il n’était plus là…
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Une demi-heure plus tard, le train l’emportait vers Paris.
Ah ! il pouvait, André Morère, parler de la faiblesse et de
l’inconséquence humaines. Qu’était-il, lui qui avait de la vie une
conception si haute et comprenait si bien le devoir de la faire
moralement belle ? Un homme plus intelligent que la plupart, il est
vrai, mais autant que les autres pétri de passion, faible devant la
toute-puissance de la femme aimée.
Est-ce qu’à cette heure, dans le wagon qui le ramenait vers Paris,
il n’était pas dominé tout entier par l’idée qui allumait une fièvre
dans son être nerveux, qu’il la verrait le lendemain, Elle ? Est-ce qu’il
n’avait pas déjà soif de sa présence, la désirant comme un altéré
soupire après la source d’eau vive ?… Est-ce qu’il ne tressaillait pas
d’une impatience douloureuse à la seule vision d’elle flottante en lui,
à la seule pensée de la visite qu’il lui ferait, de leur causerie, des
mots qui tomberaient des lèvres tentatrices, pareilles à un fruit
savoureux au parfum grisant…
Ainsi qu’on rejette en arrière un vêtement inutile, il laissait fuir de
son cerveau le souvenir des heures qu’il venait de passer loin de la
ville où elle était, oubliant le milieu provincial qui avait distrait son
esprit d’analyste, oubliant même la candide petite vierge dont l’âme
l’avait charmé.
Il ne soupçonnait guère qu’à cette même heure, l’enfant, sa
prière du soir terminée, demeurait agenouillée, le visage dans ses
mains, les prunelles obscurcies par une buée de larmes, tandis
qu’elle revoyait comme un songe très doux, irrémédiablement fini,
leur lente visite dans la cathédrale.
Et pas plus, il ne soupçonnait que le docteur Paul, retiré dans son
cabinet de travail, l’arpentait d’un pas machinal, se répétant qu’il
était fou d’espérer attirer à lui une chère petite fille qui paraissait
tout juste remarquer son existence…
VI
— Voyons, monsieur Paul, avouez-le : André Morère ne vous plaît

point !
Et Cécile Auclerc se pencha, malicieuse, vers le docteur Paul,
venu en visite chez elle, à son jour de réception, fait tellement
exceptionnel, qu’elle avait une seconde douté de l’excellence de ses
yeux en le voyant entrer. Il est vrai que cette après-midi-là, sa petite
amie Agnès l’aidait à recevoir, ainsi que, la veille même, le
commandant l’avait annoncé par hasard à la bonne Mme Darcel.
Depuis un moment déjà, le docteur Paul était là, et la
conversation, — comme de juste ! — s’était portée sur André Morère,
qui allait venir, trois jours plus tard, prononcer enfin la conférence
tant attendue.
— Il ne vous est pas sympathique, n’est-ce pas ?
— Mais qui peut vous faire supposer pareille chose, madame ?
répliqua le docteur, les sourcils légèrement froncés.
— Oh ! ce n’est pas bien difficile à découvrir, et je n’ai pas eu à
faire une grande dépense d’imagination pour arriver à cette
conclusion ! Depuis un moment, nous parlons de lui, et, vrai ! vous
ne paraissez pas éprouver à son égard des sentiments bien chauds !
N’es-tu pas de mon avis, Agnès ?
Les deux petites mains qui tordaient distraitement les rubans de
la ceinture eurent un léger frémissement, tandis qu’Agnès
répondait :
— Non, je ne sais trop ce qui te fait supposer cela…
Le docteur Paul la regarda. Mais il ne rencontra pas ses yeux
arrêtés au dehors sur les lointaines perspectives du jardin. Et il
reprit :
— Je vous assure, madame, que je rends pleine justice à M.
Morère. Je le tiens pour un homme de très grande intelligence ; je
reconnais qu’il a l’esprit très délicat, très pénétrant, subtil et
volontiers paradoxal, qu’il est un remarquable écrivain et un
conférencier de non moins de talent…
— Mais !… fit Cécile, voyant qu’il s’arrêtait.
— Mais je trouve qu’il devrait s’en tenir là et ne point imaginer de
se présenter comme un apôtre de la régénération morale, prêcher la
vie intérieure, ses beautés, ses bienfaits, etc., quand il n’a vraiment
pas qualité pour le faire ; moins encore, peut-être, que bien
d’autres !
— Pourquoi ? Est-ce que cet homme sage le serait moins en
actions qu’en paroles ?
Une curiosité luisait dans les yeux de Cécile.
Le docteur resta impassible.
— Je l’ignore, madame. Je ne connais nullement la vie privée de
M. Morère, qui ne me regarde pas et que je n’ai aucun désir de
connaître. Mais, enfin, quand on a lu ses livres, ou ses pièces, ou ses
articles, il est permis de penser que, pour définir aussi bien les
femmes modernes, avec tant de sûreté et de justesse, il faut qu’il ait
eu l’occasion de les étudier de près… et avec un intérêt tout
particulier…
Cécile mordit ses lèvres que relevait une petite moue, et,
maligne, elle dit :
— Peut-être, en effet, les a-t-il consciencieusement observées.
Pour être un apôtre, on n’en est pas moins un homme… Mais, dites-
moi, monsieur Paul, vous qui avez longtemps habité Paris et y avez
des amis, vous devez savoir bien des secrets parisiens. Est-il vrai que
l’original de l’héroïne de M. Morère, dans sa dernière pièce, soit une
certaine Mme de Villerson, qui est une femme du monde très en
vue ? A tout instant, je lis son nom dans les comptes rendus du
Figaro.
— Madame, sur ce point encore, je dois vous avouer mon
ignorance. Je sais tout au plus que Mme de Villerson a la réputation
d’être une femme fort belle, très intelligente, et faisant tout ce qui
lui plaît avec une indifférence parfaite pour l’opinion publique.
— Elle est, en effet, très belle ! dit la voix d’Agnès un peu
assourdie.
— Comment, tu la connais ?
— Je l’ai vue chez la marquise de Bitray et aussi à l’Opéra. Oui,
elle est très belle et très différente des autres femmes… Il n’est pas
étonnant que M. Morère s’occupe d’elle, l’admire et désire la prendre
pour modèle !
De quel singulier accent Agnès venait de parler, d’un accent qui
faisait songer à une plainte d’oiseau blessé… De nouveau, le docteur
Paul eut vers elle un coup d’œil rapide. Mais il n’aperçut encore que
son profil, dont la peau s’empourpra un peu quand Cécile s’écria :
— Ah ! ah ! entendez-vous cette petite fille, monsieur Paul ?
Prenez garde ! A sa voix, je devine qu’elle est tout émue et prête à
se révolter si vous touchez à son dieu. Car, au cas où vous
l’ignoreriez, je vais vous l’apprendre, M. Morère nous a mises, elle et
moi, sous le charme !…
Un pli profond creusa le front du docteur Paul.
— Vraiment ?… Et m’est-il permis, mademoiselle, de vous
demander ce qui a valu à M. André Morère une telle sympathie de
votre part ?
Sérieuse et douce, elle dit :
— Je l’ai entendu parler des pauvres, de tous ceux qui souffrent,
comme personne encore ne m’en avait parlé, de façon à me donner,
bien plus grand que je ne l’avais éprouvé, le désir de leur témoigner
toute ma pitié… Et je lui suis très reconnaissante du bien qu’il m’a
fait ainsi !
La voix du docteur Paul s’éleva, âpre et mordante :
— Je ne m’étonne pas qu’il ait été fort éloquent sur un pareil
sujet ! Il appartient à la génération nouvelle qui s’est imprégnée
toute de tolstoïsme, qui rêve une religion nouvelle dont l’altruisme
serait la base et l’aliment principal… D’ailleurs, tous les problèmes de
la vie sociale doivent l’intéresser, puisqu’ils fournissent des sujets
d’étude à son esprit toujours en quête d’aliments nouveaux et
variés. C’est un parfait dilettante qu’André Morère !
— Un dilettante ? De quel ton farouche vous prononcez ce mot !
fit, en riant, Cécile, pour qui ledit mot n’avait pas grand sens. Vous
n’êtes pas animé, non plus, d’un immense enthousiasme pour les
personnages de cette catégorie !
— Non, c’est vrai, je n’aime pas les dilettantes, et je les considère
comme beaucoup plus malfaisants qu’on ne le fait généralement.
Pour peu qu’une idée, ou un fait, ou un caractère encore flatte leur
sens esthétique, leur curiosité, leurs goûts raffinés, ils se jugent
satisfaits et ne se préoccupent guère de la valeur morale de ce fait,
de cette idée, de ce caractère… Est-ce qu’ils font autre chose que…
jongler sans cesse avec leurs pensées et celles des autres,
s’amusant à en considérer les diverses faces, dès qu’elles les attirent
pour un motif ou un autre, mettant au-dessus de toute autre
considération les jouissances artistiques ou intellectuelles qu’elles
peuvent leur procurer ?… Eh bien, je dis, moi, qu’à ce jeu-là, non
seulement ils perdent, — ce qui est leur affaire, après tout ! — la
notion saine du bien et du mal, pour employer la vieille distinction, la
remplaçant par le seul sentiment de ce qui est beau ou ne l’est pas ;
mais, encore, pour peu qu’ils aient du talent, ils communiquent
fatalement à quelques-uns, peut-être même à beaucoup, parmi les
jeunes, intelligents, qui les lisent ou les écoutent, leur scepticisme
aimable, spirituel, séduisant, mais dangereux et démoralisateur. M.
Morère peut célébrer devant eux les vies orientées vers un idéal très
haut,… il détruit par ses livres le bien qu’il peut faire par sa parole !
Le docteur Paul avait parlé avec une espèce de violence
contenue, inaccoutumée chez lui, sans remarquer la stupéfaction de
Cécile, déroutée par cette parole vibrante et rude dont le sens
complet lui échappait un peu. Agnès, elle, avait écouté le jeune
homme, cherchant à le bien comprendre et découragée de ne pas
mieux pénétrer toute sa pensée, devinant seulement, avec une sorte
d’angoisse, qu’il jugeait mal André Morère, sans qu’elle saisît bien
pourquoi. Et d’irrésistibles questions lui jaillirent des lèvres :
— Que reprochez-vous donc à M. Morère ? Pourquoi le placez-
vous parmi ces dilettantes qui, dites-vous, ne croient à rien de ce
qu’il faut croire ? Est-ce qu’il n’était pas sincère quand il nous
enseignait une charité si belle ?
Elle s’arrêta. Une inconsciente prière tremblait dans son accent.
Et le docteur Paul hésita à lui répondre. Certes, profondément, il
souhaitait voir la douce petite fille, qu’il désirait faire sienne,
détachée de cet André Morère qu’elle admirait tant…
Mais il n’était pas homme à altérer ce qu’il jugeait être la vérité
pour abaisser un rival !…
Elle répétait :
— Pourquoi cherchez-vous une réponse ?… Je voudrais avoir
votre opinion vraie !…
Et, loyal, il dit :
— Je pense que M. Morère était absolument sincère en vous
parlant. S’il est d’esprit sceptique, il est aussi d’âme assez haute
pour comprendre et plaindre les misères de notre pauvre humanité,
avec un réel désir de les soulager dans la mesure de ses moyens…
Oui…, je le crois fort capable de se passionner, mais sans jamais
perdre sa clairvoyance d’analyste… C’est un intellectuel que Morère !
un intellectuel… vibrant, mais, avant tout, un intellectuel !
— L’est-il autant que cela ? glissa Cécile, qui trouvait peu amusant
le tour donné par le docteur à la conversation. D’après ce que j’ai
entendu raconter, il ne se montrerait pas strictement « intellectuel »
dans son enthousiasme pour Mme de Villerson. Un camarade de
mon mari, qui est à tout instant à Paris et y va dans le grand monde,
m’assurait qu’André Morère était tout à fait emballé pour elle,
d’autant plus qu’on la dit une puissance difficile à prendre !
Le docteur Paul devina-t-il avec quelle anxiété douloureuse une
enfant attendait sa réponse, ou obéit-il simplement à son mépris
pour les potinages féminins, il écarta, d’un geste indifférent,
l’insidieuse question de Cécile et fit simplement :
— Sur ce point, madame, je me récuse tout à fait. Ainsi que j’ai
eu déjà l’honneur de vous le dire, je ne connais pas Mme de
Villerson et guère plus André Morère, qui n’est pour moi qu’un
écrivain de talent.
Cécile n’insista pas, en sachant l’inutilité, un peu dépitée, au
fond, de cette réserve du jeune homme, qu’elle jugeait voulue ; et
des visiteuses, parmi lesquelles Mme Vésale, arrivèrent à propos
pour lui permettre de se lancer sur d’autres sujets moins délicats,
tandis qu’Agnès, à sa prière, offrait des rafraîchissements à ses
hôtes.
Avec sa grâce timide, la jeune fille s’acquittait de sa mission ;
mais le docteur qui l’observait fut frappé de la mélancolie de son
frêle sourire. Il avait bien remarqué, dès le début de sa visite, que
les prunelles bleues n’avaient plus leur clarté d’étoile ; que dans
l’expression de la bouche au repos, dans les gestes même, il y avait
quelque chose de découragé. Pourtant, il craignit de l’avoir attristée
par l’une de ses paroles ; et, comme un hasard venait de les
rapprocher, il dit avec une douceur d’accent dont il n’était pas
coutumier :
— Je crains de vous avoir peut-être froissée tout à l’heure, sans
le vouloir, par le jugement que j’ai porté sur… une personne dont
vous estimez le caractère… S’il en est ainsi, veuillez me le pardonner.
J’en suis désolé.
— Non, vous ne m’avez pas froissée… Vous m’avez seulement
enlevé quelques illusions…
— Parce que je suis un brutal qui ne sait point parler aux jeunes
filles… De toute mon âme, je regrette mes malencontreuses
réflexions !
— Ne regrettez rien, fit-elle doucement, d’un ton assourdi. J’aime
toujours connaître la vérité.
Puis, comme sa mère l’appelait pour partir, après une
imperceptible hésitation, elle tendit la main au jeune homme et
s’éloigna.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Pauvre petite Agnès ! qu’était-elle devenue, sa belle joie des
semaines écoulées ? Jamais plus, d’ailleurs, elle n’en avait senti
complètement la chaude clarté depuis le soir où il était parti de
Beaumont, après qu’elle avait entrevu la distance morale qui les
séparait l’un de l’autre. Cette distance, elle ne l’avait jamais oubliée ;
même quand elle se rappelait les attentions dont il l’avait entourée,
même quand sa mère lui avait remis une faible partie de la moisson
de fleurs qu’il avait envoyée après sa visite à Beaumont ; fleurs qui
s’étaient fanées aux pieds de la Vierge, où elle les avait sous son
regard quand elle priait.
Maintenant, avec une espèce de superstition, elle attendait ce
jour où elle le reverrait, quand il viendrait prononcer sa fameuse
conférence, comme si sa présence dût écarter d’elle le poids
mystérieux qui la meurtrissait, ce regret sourd et pénétrant d’un
bonheur innomé. Elle avait pensé : « Il arrivera la veille de la
conférence. S’il n’est pas trop tard ce jour-là, il viendra faire visite à
maman ! »
Et une joie obscure palpitait en elle à cette seule idée.
Elle avait bien prévu, l’enfant. Dès son arrivée à Beaumont, le
jour qui précédait celui où il devait parler, André Morère vint
correctement se présenter chez le commandant Vésale. Mais
personne ne se trouvait au logis pour le recevoir, et quand Agnès
rentra avec sa mère, à l’heure du dîner, elle vit la carte déposée dans
le plateau du vestibule. Alors une sensation aiguë de déception la
bouleversa toute. Ainsi elle avait eu lieu, cette visite en laquelle elle
espérait ! Espérer… quoi ? Ah ! elle n’aurait pu le dire, la pauvre petite
fille. Son rêve était bien imprécis… et si blanc !
Mais, enfin, elle avait tant souhaité le revoir, lui, une fois encore
dans l’intimité de leur maison ! Maintenant, s’il arrivait qu’elle se
trouvât rapprochée de lui, ce serait sans doute au milieu de la foule.
Peut-être ne la remarquerait-il même pas, ni ne lui parlerait ; et elle
n’aurait pas le droit de faire un signe pour qu’il s’aperçût de sa
présence. Ah ! pourquoi personne ne lui avait-il révélé comment on
attire à soi les hommes qui sont ainsi au-dessus des autres par leur
intelligence ? Et devant son impuissance, un découragement
s’emparait d’elle en même temps qu’une fiévreuse impatience de
voir enfin se lever le jour qui les mettrait en présence.
Il était déjà un peu tard quand, le lendemain, dans l’après-midi,
la commandante et Agnès pénétrèrent dans l’enceinte de l’Exposition
d’horticulture qui coïncidait avec la conférence d’André Morère. Le
groupe des intimes de Mme Vésale était déjà là, au complet, parmi
le tout Beaumont qui affluait en tenue de cérémonie, fier et ravi de
l’aspect charmant que présentait son Exposition. Le jardinier en chef
avait eu l’art de transformer en une sorte de parc admirablement
fleuri, coupé d’allées capricieuses, animé du bruit clair des jets
d’eau, une grande place, morne et monotone, sur laquelle se
dressait une vaste rotonde qui avait pour mission d’offrir une
indistincte hospitalité aux concerts, conférences, cirques, — quand il
passait des cirques à Beaumont.
Sur une estrade champêtre, la musique de la garnison célébrait la
fête par d’éclatantes fanfares dont les échos sonores arrivaient
jusque dans les tentes cernant la place, sous lesquelles étaient
abritées les plantes les plus fragiles.
— Quelle belle exposition ! n’est-ce pas ? s’écria, pour toute
réponse, la colonelle enthousiasmée quand Mme Vésale lui demanda
de ses nouvelles. On dirait un petit coin de Paris ! Quel dommage
qu’il ne fasse pas plus beau !… Le temps est bien couvert…
— Eh bien, nous y gagnons d’avoir moins chaud, dit aussitôt Mme
Darcel, incapable de n’être pas optimiste. Mademoiselle Agnès, avez-
vous vu les rosiers ?… Ils sont splendides !
La commandante répondit pour Agnès :
— Non, nous n’avons encore rien admiré. Nous arrivons.
— Juste pour la conférence, remarqua Mme Salbrice. C’est à
quatre heure, n’est-ce pas, qu’il parle, ce Morère ?
Cécile se jeta prudemment à la traverse pour éviter une riposte
trop vive de Mme Vésale et dit, en riant, à Agnès :
— Puisque tu surgis à la minute, tu n’as pas contemplé la
principale curiosité de l’Exposition ! Une fleur d’une espèce toute
particulière, qui a des yeux, des cheveux, une taille à tourner la tête
de tous ces messieurs, même d’Édouard.
Et elle désignait de la main son mari qui causait à quelques pas
avec d’autres officiers, auxquels, par extraordinaire, s’était joint le
docteur Paul.
— Cécile, quelle histoire racontes-tu là ?
— Une histoire vraie ! Demande à ces dames si, il y a un moment,
nous n’avons pas vu entrer ici une fleur humaine, une charmante
inconnue dont personne ne peut dire le nom… Elle est dans la serre,
elle va repasser. Tu la verras… Qui est-elle ?… C’est intrigant…
D’autant plus qu’elle est d’une beauté de premier ordre !
La commandante décréta :
— C’est quelque voyageuse arrêtée à Beaumont pour y visiter la
cathédrale et qui aura entendu parler de notre Exposition.
— Hum !… une voyageuse en gants gris de perle, sans un atome
de poussière sur sa toilette… et coiffée ! et habillée ! Si ces messieurs
avaient suivi leur désir, au lieu de demeurer près de nous, en vertu
des lois de la politesse, ils auraient tous, — oh ! discrètement, —
emboîté le pas derrière elle… Maintenant, en attendant son retour,
ils frémissent d’impatience… Avouez-le, monsieur d’Oriol. Tiens, la
voilà ! Agnès, regarde !
Agnès tourna la tête, et une exclamation lui vint aux lèvres.
— Je connais cette dame…, c’est Mme de Villerson !
— Ah ! par exemple ! la maîtr…, l’amie d’André Morère ? Eh bien,
je comprends qu’elle l’inspire. Édouard, écoute. Agnès sait le nom de
notre inconnue, c’est la nièce de la marquise de Bitray, Mme de
Villerson. Tu sais, le modèle d’André Morère pour son héroïne du
Vaudeville !
— Peste ! un fameux modèle…, hein, Boynel ! Ces écrivains, tout
moralistes qu’ils sont, savent joliment choisir !
Entre eux, les hommes continuèrent d’échanger leurs remarques,
détaillant la jeune femme que considéraient avidement les dames de
Beaumont. Elle, avec une indifférence tranquille, supportait le feu de
tous ces regards, qu’elle ne remarquait même pas, songeant à la
joie qu’elle allait causer à son ami, quand il la verrait soudain
apparaître, alors qu’il la croyait à Paris. Distraite par les seules fleurs,
elle avançait, ne se doutant guère non plus de la curiosité
qu’éveillait, dans les cervelles féminines, sa toilette si sobre
pourtant, une simple robe de foulard bleu sombre pointillé de blanc,
un simple col de dentelle éclairant le visage, une simple petite toque
fleurie de bleuets sur les cheveux d’or fauve. Mais, ainsi vêtue, elle
était encore d’une élégance qui réduisait à bien peu les plus beaux
atours des dames de Beaumont…
Agnès, plus encore que les autres, la contemplait, ayant la même
sensation que si, sur son cœur, se fussent posés les fins talons de la
jeune femme. Mais le commandant arrivait affairé :
— Sophie, je quitte André Morère, qui est désolé de ne pas t’avoir
rencontrée hier, ainsi qu’Agnès. Aussi je lui ai dit que j’allais, pour
vous conduire dans la salle, vous faire passer par le petit salon où il
attend l’heure de parler. Seulement, il faut vous dépêcher de venir,
car cette heure va bientôt sonner. Agnès, tu accompagnes ta mère…
Morère s’est aimablement informé de toi…
— Allez, petite, allez adorer le dieu, lança en riant Mme Salbrice,
mordante.
Mais heureusement le commandant n’entendit pas, car il redisait
à la colonelle, qui s’en informait pour la vingtième fois au moins, le
sujet de la conférence qu’elle oubliait toujours.
— Ah ! merci, commandant… Je me souviens à merveille
maintenant. Oui, l’affiche porte en effet : Quelques mots sur l’âme et
l’esprit contemporains.
Le commandant, déjà, se répandait en saluts, très pressé d’aller
retrouver Morère, à cause de l’heure ; et Mme Vésale était debout,
prête à le suivre, charmée en son for intérieur de montrer ainsi à la
face de tout Beaumont que le héros du jour était de leurs amis et les
accueillait, quand il demeurait invisible pour le commun des mortels.
Agnès les suivit. A grands coups pressés, son cœur battait sous le
mince corsage d’été, donnant soudain à son visage un éclat de belle
fleur rose. Encore quelques minutes, quelques secondes, et, peut-
être d’un mot, il allait lui faire du bien, comme le soir où il l’avait
consolée après qu’elle avait mal joué…
Le commandant souleva la portière. André Morère, qui, debout,
consultait des notes, releva la tête ; et sur Agnès tomba le regard
pensif qui l’avait attirée dès leur première rencontre. Avec un sourire
et des mots de bienvenue, qui réveillèrent en elle un lointain écho
des jours heureux, il emprisonna dans la sienne la petite main
frémissante qu’elle lui donnait… Mais il n’eut pas le loisir de lui dire
une parole de plus ; Mme Vésale s’emparait vite de la conversation
pour lui exprimer son regret de l’avoir manqué la veille et lui faire
part de l’enthousiasme qu’il excitait à l’avance, pénétrée de l’idée
qu’elle lui était ainsi fort agréable. Puis ce fut le commandant qui
s’en mêla, tout en rappelant à sa femme qu’il serait indiscret
d’abuser du temps de M. Morère, et déclarant bientôt à l’enfant
forcément silencieuse :
— Allons, petite Agnès, viens… Il faut que nous nous dirigions
vers nos places !
Elle murmura :
— Oui, père.
A quoi bon rester davantage ?… Il était mort maintenant, l’espoir
bien frêle qu’elle avait mis en cette entrevue, et elle avait
l’impression qu’une séparation sans retour allait s’accomplir entre
elle et André.
Pourtant il commençait, échappant enfin au commandant et à
Mme Vésale :
— Je vous remercie beaucoup, mademoiselle, de me procurer le
plaisir de parler encore devant vous, qui m’avez si bien compris à
Paris. Je…
Il n’acheva pas. Après un coup discret, la porte s’entr’ouvrait, et
un huissier apportait une carte, la présentant au jeune homme. Il y
jeta un regard, et une sourde exclamation lui échappa :
— Où est cette dame ?
— Là, monsieur, elle arrive derrière moi.
En effet, dans l’entre-bâillement de la portière une élégante
forme féminine se montrait ; et Agnès, avant même de l’avoir
reconnue, l’avait pressentie, devinée au seul éclair passé sur les
traits d’André Morère, quand il avait vu le nom écrit sur la carte.
C’était elle, cette belle jeune femme qu’il admirait tant…
— Vous ! madame ? Est-il possible ! Vous !
Et Agnès eut l’intuition qu’en cette minute, dans le monde entier,
il n’existait pour lui que cette blonde apparition. Il allait au-devant
d’elle, tandis que le commandant surpris reculait machinalement, se
confondant en saluts profonds, tandis que Mme Vésale restait
immobile, la mine pincée.
Souriante, la jeune femme disait :
— Oui, moi-même ! C’est bien le moins que vos amies viennent
vous entendre et vous applaudir !
Elle lui tendait la main. Il se courba très bas, y appuyant ses
lèvres en un baiser qui sembla interminable à Agnès. Pourtant, la
durée avait dû en être tout à fait correcte, car ni le commandant ni
Mme Vésale ne paraissaient étonnés.
D’où venait donc, à cette enfant, l’impitoyable clairvoyance qui lui
révélait la passion fugitive allumée dans les yeux de Morère, quand il
releva la tête et que son regard rencontra celui de la jeune femme,
s’y perdit une seconde, enveloppant autant qu’une étreinte ?…
Comment entendit-elle ou plutôt devina-t-elle ces mots qu’il
murmurait sans même remuer ses lèvres :
— O chère, chère adorée, quelle imprudence pour vous, d’être
venue !
Alors elle détourna la tête, ne voulant plus les voir, tant elle les
sentait l’un à l’autre… Ainsi l’étaient ce Roméo et cette Juliette qui lui
avaient révélé comme peuvent s’aimer des créatures humaines, qui
lui avaient fait naître au cœur l’obscur et timide désir de connaître
un peu, elle aussi, la chaude saveur de l’amour…
Soudain elle n’avait plus qu’une pensée, s’enfuir loin d’eux, ayant
conscience du désir qu’ils avaient d’être seuls, sans étrangers
importuns autour d’eux. Et ce fut presque une joie pour elle
d’entendre son père adresser les paroles d’adieu. Cette fois, elle ne
tendit pas la main au jeune homme… Entre eux, un lien s’était
brisé… Lui ne remarqua même pas qu’elle s’éloignait ainsi.
Déjà, la salle où il allait parler était presque comble. De loin, elle
aperçut Cécile, qui, gaiement, lui faisait signe de venir prendre place
près d’elle. Mais elle ne parut pas comprendre cette invitation ; une
soif de silence et d’isolement la dominait toute. Un déchirement
s’était fait en son jeune cœur, et la blessure était trop frémissante
pour qu’elle ne craignît point le plus léger effleurement. Sans le
savoir, la commandante lui procura un bien fugitif, en s’asseyant
auprès de Mme Darcel, qu’accompagnaient son mari et le docteur
Paul.
Quatre heures sonnèrent. André Morère parut ; de formidables
applaudissements éclatèrent. Et dans l’esprit d’Agnès, s’éleva le
souvenir de cette après-midi où, deux mois plus tôt, elle l’avait vu
pour la première fois ; du hall superbement décoré, de l’estrade
fleurdelisée où il parlait en maître, de la jeune femme blonde qu’elle
avait trouvée si belle… Et cette dernière évocation l’agita d’un frisson
d’angoisse…
Bien vite, dans la foule des auditeurs, elle avait découvert les
cheveux de lumière sous la petite toque piquée de bleuets…
D’ailleurs, en commençant ne s’était-il pas tourné de ce côté, comme
s’il eût voulu faire hommage de son talent à cette jeune femme qui
lui était chère…
Maintenant dans la salle résonnait sa voix chaude, coupée par les
applaudissements fréquents, car à Beaumont, comme partout, il
s’était emparé de son public !… Mais Agnès ne pouvait pas l’écouter
ainsi que jadis… Et puis ce qu’il disait ne s’adressait plus à son
cœur… il parlait de questions, de sentiments, d’idées, qui étaient
pour elle lettres closes ; et, sans le savoir, lui faisait ainsi, plus
profondément encore, mesurer la distance où ils étaient l’un de
l’autre. Cet André Morère n’était pas celui qu’elle avait connu… Il
était trop au-dessus d’elle, il ne pouvait remarquer qu’une femme
telle que sa belle amie… Et les yeux arrêtés sur la tête charmante de
la jeune femme, elle songea, sans pitié pour elle-même : « Seule,
elle l’intéresse ici… Pour elle seule, il parle. Si la salle croulait et
qu’elle fût épargnée, peu lui importeraient les autres !… »
Oh ! de quel regard il l’avait, une seconde, enveloppée tout à
l’heure ! et quel nom il lui avait donné !… Un nom dont le souvenir
brûlait l’âme d’Agnès, premier mot d’amour qu’elle eût jamais
entendu prononcer par des lèvres d’homme… Ah ! qu’il devait l’aimer,
cette jeune femme, pour la nommer ainsi ! Et pourquoi ne l’aurait-il
pas aimée ? Elle était si séduisante, si bien faite pour être… l’adorée !
Puisqu’elle était veuve, bientôt, peut-être, il l’épouserait…
De nouveau, un frémissement l’ébranla toute. Une sensation
d’irrémédiable s’abattait sur elle… Quel espoir insensé avait-elle eu
donc ?… Comment avait-elle pu espérer être quelque chose pour
lui ?… Elle avait cru que la sympathie appelait la sympathie… Eh
bien, elle s’était trompée… Voilà tout… Le bonheur n’était pas si
simple qu’elle l’avait naïvement imaginé… Une autre était plus digne
de lui qu’elle-même… Et maintenant il lui fallait recommencer à
vivre, sans qu’il fût en rien mêlé à son existence. Peut-être même,
elle ne le reverrait jamais… Il allait repartir pour Paris ; elle
demeurerait à Beaumont pour toujours, n’ayant pas le droit de
songer à lui… Et une poignante impression de vide l’étreignit à cette
idée qu’il ne devrait plus exister pour elle, qu’elle ne pourrait plus ni
désirer sa présence, ni souhaiter son retour…
Des acclamations enthousiastes s’élevèrent de toutes parts dans
la salle ; et Agnès eut, seulement alors, conscience que des instants
nombreux avaient coulé et que la conférence était achevée. Debout,
André Morère s’inclinait, remerciant son public. Elle le regarda, ainsi
que l’on regarde ceux dont on se sépare pour toujours, avec son
âme… Puis elle suivit le flot qui l’entraînait vers la sortie.
Une grosse averse tombait, qui fit refluer les femmes sous le
péristyle. Mais la commandante, qui détestait la foule où sa petite
taille se perdait, appela Agnès ; et, franchissant en hâte l’allée qui
menait à l’une des tentes, elle s’y précipita. Cécile y était déjà
réfugiée, contemplant la floraison des œillets et des grands lis tigrés,
en compagnie de son mari, du docteur Paul et de quelques amis.
Elle les salua de son joyeux sourire :
— Comme vous avez raison de chercher asile ici ! On y est
parfaitement. Avez-vous vu la collection des œillets ?… Une merveille
tout simplement ! Venez, que je vous les fasse admirer. Ils seraient
dignes d’être offerts à André Morère, en remerciement des
intéressantes choses qu’il vient de nous dire et qu’a écoutées très
attentivement sa ravissante amie, Mme de Villerson…
D’instinct, Agnès fit quelques pas en avant pour fuir le gai
bavardage de la jeune femme. A cette heure, le nom même d’André
Morère lui était douloureux à entendre, et surtout rapproché de celui
de Mme de Villerson…
A l’avance, elle s’était fait un plaisir infini de cette Exposition, elle
qui aimait tant les fleurs !… Et, maintenant, voici qu’elle allait droit
devant elle, sans rien voir, le regard absent, arrêté sur l’invisible
monde de son âme. Près d’elle, en silence, marchait le docteur Paul,
dont à peine elle remarquait la présence à ses côtés, sans
soupçonner de quel œil clairvoyant il l’avait observée pendant la
conférence et constatait le frémissement de ses lèvres, la
marmoréenne blancheur du visage devenu grave, se demandant
avidement quel secret chagrin avait ainsi pu l’atteindre tout à coup…
Et, ni l’un ni l’autre, ils ne sentaient les parfums confondus des
grands lis et des œillets qui montaient pénétrants dans la lumière
adoucie de la serre.
— Voici la collection dont parlait Mme Auclerc, dit-il doucement
pour l’arracher à sa rêverie triste.
Elle tressaillit, rappelée à la réalité ; et son regard erra sur les
admirables fleurs soufre, pourprées, rose de corail, amarante, dont
les pétales chiffonnés, tachetés, ourlés, teintés de tons exquis,
imprégnaient l’air alourdi de leur senteur fine… Elle se souvenait de
cette gerbe d’œillets qu’elle avait cueillie le matin du jour où il était
venu dans leur maison.
— N’est-ce pas que ces œillets sont splendides ? insista du même
ton le jeune homme, inquiet de son silence.
Elle rougit, prise d’une crainte qu’il ne devinât ce qui se passait
en elle.
— Oui, ils sont superbes… Cécile avait raison. Et comme ces
fleurs ont l’air heureux ! Ce doit être bon de vivre sans penser, ni se
souvenir, ni espérer…
Il hésita à relever ces paroles qui s’échappaient douloureuses de
son âme même, car il connaissait sa réserve de sensitive. Il fallait
qu’elle eût été bien profondément frappée pour se trahir ainsi.
Qu’avait-elle ?… Qui l’avait blessée ?… Était-ce cet André Morère ?…
Et une colère sourde secoua toutes les fibres de son être. Parce qu’il
l’aimait, cette douce petite fille blonde qu’il avait vue enfant, il avait
deviné le frêle roman ébauché dans son âme de vierge, sans qu’elle
en eût conscience, parce qu’à l’heure où naissait en elle la confuse
intuition de l’amour, un homme s’était trouvé sur son chemin, lui
parlant le seul langage qu’elle pût encore comprendre…
Et une pitié tendre le domina pour cette enfant qui se tenait
triste auprès de lui, les yeux perdus vers la radieuse floraison. Alors,
délicatement, cherchant à lui faire un peu de bien, il reprit d’un ton
de badinage, afin qu’elle ne pénétrât pas son intention :
— Enviez-vous à ce point les fleurs ? Que savez-vous si elles n’ont
pas, elles aussi, une âme, une âme très délicate et très sensible, qui
leur donne la puissance de souffrir tout comme nous autres
humains ? Hier, j’étais là quand les jardiniers ont apporté toutes
celles-ci. C’était au moment où éclatait l’orage. La pluie ruisselait sur
elles et les courbait comme pour les briser. Peut-être croyaient-elles,
les pauvres petites, qu’elles ne résisteraient pas à cette rude
tempête… Voyez-les aujourd’hui… Vous-même leur trouvez l’air
riant… Les mauvais jours sont passés !
Il s’arrêta un peu, l’observant. Elle n’avait pas bougé. Mais, à
l’expression de son visage, il vit qu’elle l’avait écouté. Et il reprit
encore de la même voix profonde, toute vibrante d’une douceur
contenue, qu’elle ne lui connaissait guère :
— Nous devrions vraiment, nous autres hommes, n’être pas
moins vaillants que ces fleurs et ne pas nous laisser abattre quand la
vie nous meurtrit un peu !…
— Oui…, ce serait très sage… Mais il est bien difficile quelquefois
d’être sage !
— Moins qu’on ne croit… Il suffit souvent de vouloir, de toute sa
volonté, atteindre cette sagesse, et se souvenir, devant les menus et
inévitables chagrins de chaque jour, des vrais malheurs qui frappent
tant de créatures…
— C’est vrai, fit-elle faiblement. Merci de me l’avoir rappelé. Ce
que vous venez de me dire, personne ne devrait l’oublier…
Il ne répondit pas, et tous deux restèrent silencieux, elle, ayant
peur de laisser jaillir de ses lèvres l’aveu de sa tristesse indicible ; lui,
craignant qu’elle ne comprît pourquoi il lui avait ainsi parlé.
D’ailleurs, Mme Vésale les rejoignait enfin, et avec elle tout le groupe
ami qui la suivait.
Alors ce furent des exclamations, de banales formules
admiratives sur la beauté des œillets, interrompues par l’apparition
du commandant. Il arrivait exultant du triomphal succès d’André
Morère, dont tout le monde lui parlait. Et, entre deux phrases
laudatives, il dit à sa femme :
— Morère m’a chargé de te présenter tous ses hommages et ses
adieux, puisqu’il ne pourra le faire lui-même. Il est obligé de repartir
tout à l’heure, par l’express de six heures vingt, étant attendu ce soir
à Paris.
Le commandant ajouta encore quelques mots. Agnès n’y prit pas
garde. Tout était fini, bien fini !… Elle ne le reverrait pas… Il partait
sans lui avoir fait même la charité d’un pauvre mot d’adieu… Et
c’était naturel, puisqu’elle n’était rien pour lui…
— Agnès, il ne pleut plus… Nous rentrons… Viens vite. Qu’est-ce
que tu regardes si fixement ?
C’était sa mère qui la questionnait. Au hasard, elle répondit :
— Je regardais ce lis du Japon.
Machinalement, elle dit adieu à ceux qui l’entouraient ; mais
pourtant, d’un geste voulu, elle tendit la main au docteur Paul pour
le remercier tout bas, sentant que, plus tard, quand la blessure
serait un peu cicatrisée, elle trouverait une force dans les paroles
qu’il lui avait dites. Puis elle suivit sa mère.
Devant la sortie, une voiture était arrêtée et une jeune femme
s’apprêtait à y monter… Elle, encore elle ! Au cocher, elle disait :
— A la gare, pour l’express de six heures vingt. J’ai le temps,
n’est-ce pas ?
Le train que lui aussi prenait… Ainsi, ensemble ils allaient se
retrouver. Et le poids s’abattit, plus accablant encore, sur la pauvre
âme d’Agnès…
Près d’elle, dans les rues paisibles, son père et sa mère
causaient, par bonheur, tout en marchant, et elle avait ainsi le droit
de demeurer silencieuse, enfermant son secret en elle… Les lèvres
muettes, elle songeait, très humble : « Personne ne doit rien savoir…
personne !… C’est ma faute si je souffre aujourd’hui… J’ai mal fait de
penser si souvent à lui !… J’ai été orgueilleuse de m’imaginer qu’il
pouvait faire attention à moi… Dieu me punit, et je l’ai mérité… Oh !
que je suis lâche de ne savoir pas mieux accepter ! »
Très sincère, elle songeait toutes ces choses ; mais peu à peu, sa
gorge se remplissait de sanglots, et, ardemment, elle pria dans sa
détresse :
— O mon Dieu, permettez que je ne pleure pas avant d’être
seule !
Sa mère, étonnée de son silence, demandait :
— Qu’est-ce que tu as donc, Agnès, tu ne dis rien ?
Avec effort, elle murmura :
— Je suis un peu fatiguée, maman.
— Tu n’es pas malade, au moins ? questionna le commandant,
tout de suite inquiet.
— Oh ! non, père.
Très lasse, elle montait l’escalier, et, enfin ! elle entra dans sa
chambre… Là, en ce jour lumineux de Pâques, elle avait eu le
pressentiment de tendresses à elle encore inconnues ; là, avait
palpité son imprécise espérance, délicieuse et insensée !… Elle
s’accouda, les mains jointes, à la fenêtre ; et, des yeux, elle chercha
le ciel, vers lequel s’élançait son âme meurtrie. Une immense
sérénité tombait de l’infini clair, rosé par le couchant et redevenu
limpide. Un seul nuage, frêle, neigeux, y flottait, emporté par la
brise.
Elle le regarda une seconde, qui s’éloignait sans retour, entraîné
par l’irrésistible souffle, et de grosses larmes lui jaillirent
brusquement des yeux…
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Ainsi, la vie avait emporté son beau rêve blanc…
AU COURS !
A MADAME MARCEL BEAURY
Son tout dévoué,

H. A.
Le Parc d’Embas (juillet).

AU COURS !
27 octobre 189.
Nous voici de retour à Paris, heureusement ! car il fait un temps

épouvantable.
Les vilaines journées apparaissaient déjà quand nous étions
encore à la Christinière ; aussi, nous n’avons pas attendu la rentrée
des Chambres pour revenir à Paris.
Je commençais à trouver les heures d’une longueur mortelle.
J’avais beau déchiffrer partitions, sonates et le reste, lire des romans
anglais pleins de « flirtation », casser des aiguilles sur mon ouvrage
de chez Henry, rien n’y faisait. Ce ciel gris, cette pluie qui tombait
avec un petit bruit monotone me donnaient le spleen. J’en étais
venue à jouer au loto avec les enfants.
Et le plus irritant, c’est que j’avais l’air d’être la seule à m’ennuyer
ainsi… Entre deux grosses averses rageuses, Geneviève et Patrice
reprenaient leurs courses dans les champs, avec leur Allemande
Meta.
Maman se reposait de tous ses invités de l’été, et papa, enfermé
dans son cabinet, passait ses journées avec M. Desbarres, son
secrétaire, à préparer des discours, des rapports, des comptes
rendus, etc., à répondre à ses électeurs…
Cela m’étonne toujours de voir papa si occupé, car j’entends
répéter souvent que les députés n’ont rien à faire… Après tout, ce
sont peut-être ceux de la gauche.
Papa, naturellement, est de la droite ; il est même un des
hommes les plus remarquables de son parti.
Je ne parle pas ainsi parce que je suis sa fille ! Le duc de Blancas,
M. Saint-Edme, tout le monde dit qu’il est un grand orateur ! Les
jours où il doit prononcer un discours, maman peut à peine se faire
réserver une carte ; du reste, elle n’en profite jamais, car l’émotion
lui donne toujours la migraine le matin de la séance.
Autrefois, quand Mgr le comte de Paris a été exilé par ces affreux
républicains, papa et maman se sont rendus à Eu, et ils y sont restés
jusqu’au dernier moment. Ils sont allés en Angleterre aussi quand
Monseigneur est mort, car papa était, paraît-il, un de ses derniers
fidèles !
Aussi, j’ai son portrait dans ma chambre, à notre pauvre « Roy »,
entre ceux de papa et de maman, et puis, autour, ceux de mes
meilleures amies, Jeanne Landry et Suzanne de Vignolles, de
Geneviève et de Patrice, avec son costume marin, son premier
costume d’homme.
Ainsi, je possède près de moi tous ceux que j’aime le plus !
8 novembre.
Si l’on ne s’amusait pas autant l’hiver, ce serait une saison

détestable !
Mais l’on s’amuse !!!
Je ne sais trop, pourtant, si maman se décidera enfin à me
laisser sortir, bien que je vienne d’atteindre mes dix-huit ans aux
pêches, comme on dit dans les monologues… champêtres.
Maman me trouve encore trop jeune pour aller dans le monde,
trop enfant…
Tout cela, parce que j’ai le malheur d’être petite : ce n’est
pourtant pas ma faute !
Et encore, je ne suis pas si petite qu’on veut bien le dire, surtout
quand je ne me trouve pas à côté de maman, qui est très grande,
avec une vraie taille de reine…, une reine qui aurait une jolie taille !
… Je viens de m’interrompre pour me regarder dans la glace.
Certainement, j’ai grandi depuis six mois ; j’arrive maintenant en
haut de la statue de Notre-Dame des Victoires qui est sur ma
cheminée… et sur un piédestal !…
Et puis, j’ai remarqué en même temps — je puis bien le mettre
dans mon journal, puisque personne ne le verra, — que je deviens
très jolie.
Autrefois, j’étais trop mince ; mais maintenant, ma taille s’est
arrondie…, pas trop ! juste assez pour être très bien. Autrefois aussi,
mes yeux noirs semblaient trop grands pour ma figure, comme si le
bon Dieu s’était trompé en me les mettant ; aujourd’hui, ils sont tout
à fait comme il faut, et ils paraissent toujours si noirs et si brillants, à
côté de mes joues roses !
Cet été, il est venu à la Christinière un vieux monsieur très
aimable et d’une extrême politesse, de cette vieille politesse
française qui disparaît de plus en plus, assure grand’mère.
Je l’ai entendu dire un jour à maman que Diderot semblait
m’avoir devinée, quand il écrivait d’une dame du dix-huitième siècle :
« Son teint fait penser à une feuille de rose tombée dans une jatte
de lait ! » J’ai trouvé la comparaison très jolie et je me la suis
rappelée ;… et puis, aussi, j’étais flattée du compliment !
Il y a une chose, par exemple, que j’ai toujours beaucoup aimée
dans ma personne, même quand je me trouvais laide : je veux
parler de mes cheveux… Ils sont si charmants ! blonds, d’un blond
lumineux comme si des rayons de soleil dansaient sans cesse à
travers, floconneux, légers, frisants ! En ce moment, je les relève
très haut, « à l’empire », et ils me font un petit chignon délicieux : on
dirait une mousse dorée !…
Mais il me semble que je viens de faire là le portrait de mon
« moi » extérieur…
Et celui de mon « moi » moral ?
Je ne l’essayerai pas, ce serait trop difficile ; et puis, une telle
confession finirait peut-être par de venir compromettante.
Je puis bien dire, pourtant, que je suis un peu… — beaucoup ? —
coquette ; un peu… volontaire ; un peu… enfant gâtée ! Mais je crois
être aussi une honnête petite créature qui voudrait bien se
transformer en une personne sage, raisonnable, ne disant ni ne
faisant jamais de sottises.
Ah ! quand donc cet heureux temps viendra-t-il ?
1er novembre.
Je suis fâchée, très fâchée, extrêmement fâchée !!!…

Depuis notre retour, je vivais dans un vrai paradis. Nous ne
faisions pas de visites : je ne parle pas de mes stations auprès de
Jeanne et de Suzanne, puisque quand je vais chez elle, c’est
toujours avec le désir de les trouver… Alors ce ne sont plus de vraies
visites !
Nous courions les magasins, une chose que j’adore et maman
aussi, bien qu’elle ne veuille pas l’avouer, parce que c’est un goût un
peu frivole… Je prévoyais un bon petit hiver charmant, sans cours,
sans catéchisme de persévérance. Comme occupations sérieuses, je
réservais la musique et la peinture : puisque j’ai dix-huit ans, maman
m’aurait peut-être permis d’aller dans un vrai atelier, — un de ces
ateliers où les parents ne vous accompagnent pas, — afin de faire
de la vraie peinture.
Et au chapitre des distractions, je rêvais quelques soirées…
Non pas trop ! J’aurais été raisonnable ; je n’aurais pas demandé
de grands bals, pourvu que maman les remplaçât quelquefois par le
théâtre…
Hélas ! au lieu de voir mes jolies espérances prendre un corps,
me voilà reléguée dans le clan des petites filles qui n’ont pas terminé
leur éducation !…
Nous finissions de déjeuner. Papa avait été dans ses grands jours
de distraction. Il s’était plaint de ce qu’on ne lui servait jamais de
tomates farcies, juste au moment où il en mangeait. Si bien qu’au

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Business Statistics of the United States 2006 11th

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Business Statistics For Dummies 1st Edition Alan

Features of the Second Edition

Preface to the Second Edition v

CHAPTER 1 STATISTICS: AN OVERVIEW 1–26

CHAPTER 2 DATA CLASSIFICATION, TABULATION AND PRESENTATION 27–80

2.2.1 Requisites of Ideal Classification 28

CHAPTER 3 MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY 81–132

Conceptual Questions 3B 105

CHAPTER 4 MEASURES OF DISPERSION 133–170

CHAPTER 5 SKEWNESS, MOMENTS AND KURTOSIS 171–194

CHAPTER 6 FUNDAMENTALS OF PROBABILITY 195–232

CHAPTER 7 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS 233–276

CHAPTER 8 SAMPLING AND SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS 277–304

Conceptual Questions 8A 287

CHAPTER 9 ESTIMATION AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS 305–326

CHAPTER 10 HYPOTHESIS TESTING 327–380

CHAPTER 11 CHI-SQUARE AND OTHER NON-PARAMETRIC TESTS 381–420

11.7 Runs Test for Randomness 403

CHAPTER 12 ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE 421–446

CHAPTER 13 CORRELATION ANALYSIS 447–480

13.6.2 Hypothesis Testing about Population Correlation Coefficient

CHAPTER 14 REGRESSION ANALYSIS 481–512

CHAPTER 15 PARTIAL AND MULTIPLE CORRELATION AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS 513–537

Formulae Used 534

CHAPTER 16 FORECASTING AND TIME SERIES ANALYSIS 538–617

CHAPTER 17 INDEX NUMBERS 587–636

17.4.1 Characteristics of Index Numbers 590

CHAPTER 18 STATISTICAL QUALITY CONTROL 637–672

Self-Practice Problems 18A 651

CHAPTER 19 STATISTICAL DECISION THEORY 673–713

C h a p t e r 1 for efficient citizenship

After studying this chapter, you should be able to

1.1 REASONS FOR LEARNING STATISTICS

1.2 GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF STATISTICS

1.3 STATISTICAL THINKING AND ANALYSIS Figure 1.2

An integral part of the managerial approach focuses on the quality

1.4 STATISTICS DEFINED

• Statistics may be defined as a science of collection, presentation, analysis and

1.5 TYPES OF STATISTICAL METHODS

• A statistic is a numerical quantity that describes the characteristic of a sample

1.6 IMPORTANCE AND SCOPE OF STATISTICS

1.6.1 Statistics and the State

1.6.2 Statistics in Economics

1.6.3 Statistics in Business Management

Marketing Before a product is launched, the market research team of an organization,

Personnel In the process of manpower planning, a personnel department makes statis-

1.6.4 Statistics in Physical Sciences

1.6.5 Statistics in Social Sciences

1.6.6 Statistics in Medical Sciences

1.6.7 Statistics and Computers

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