TCB#9 Pepito

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MMSS-04 Rev.

1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 9


Super Typhoon PEPITO (MAN-YI)
Issued at 11:00 AM, 16 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 2:00 PM today.

“PEPITO” CONTINUES TO THREATEN BICOL REGION AS IT INTENSIFIES INTO A SUPER TYPHOON.

Location of Center (10:00 AM)

The center of the eye of Super Typhoon PEPITO was


estimated based on all available data including from Guiuan,
Laoang, Masbate, and Daet Weather Radars at 185 km East
of Catarman, Northern Samar or 250 km East of Juban,
Sorsogon (12.8°N, 126.3°E).
Intensity

Maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h near the center,


gustiness of up to 230 km/h, and central pressure of 925 hPa

Present Movement
West northwestward at 25 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 440
km from the center
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
Center Position Intensity Movement
Date and Time Lat. Lon. MSW dir. and
Location Cat. speed (km/h)
(°N) (°E) (km/h)
12-Hour Forecast
8:00 PM 13.7 124.6 Over the coastal waters of Baras, Catanduanes 195 STY WNW 20
16 November 2024
24-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 14.8 122.7 Over the coastal waters of Jomalig, Quezon 185 STY WNW 20
17 November 2024
36-Hour Forecast
8:00 PM 16.4 120.4 In the vicinity of Aringay, La Union 120 TY NW 25
17 November 2024
48-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 17.9 118.0 260 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur 120 TY WNW 25
18 November 2024
60-Hour Forecast
470 km West of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (OUTSIDE
8:00 PM 18.5 116.1 110 STS WNW 20
PAR)
18 November 2024
72-Hour Forecast
660 km West of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (OUTSIDE
8:00 AM 18.5 114.3 95 STS W 15
PAR)
19 November 2024
96-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 17.8 111.4 960 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) 65 TS WSW 15
20 November 2024
120-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 16.7 110.1 1,095 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) - LOW SW 10
21 November 2024

Page 1 of 4

Prepared by: RPG Checked by: MAGGE

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 9


Super Typhoon PEPITO (MAN-YI)
Issued at 11:00 AM, 16 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 2:00 PM today.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

TCWS No. Luzon Visayas Mindanao


Catanduanes and the northeastern portion of Camarines

4 Sur (Garchitorena, Presentacion, Caramoan, Lagonoy, San


Jose)
- -

Wind threat: Warning lead time: 12 hours


Typhoon- Range of wind speeds: 118 to 184 km/h (Beaufort 12)
force winds Potential impacts of winds: Significant to severe threat to life and property
The eastern portion of Camarines Norte (Vinzons, Talisay,
Mercedes, Daet, Basud, San Vicente, San Lorenzo Ruiz), the
northern and southeastern portion of Camarines Sur
The eastern portion of Northern Samar
(Sagñay, Tigaon, Goa, Tinambac, Siruma, Buhi, Ocampo, Iriga
(Palapag, Laoang, Mapanas, Gamay,
City, Sipocot, Pili, Cabusao, Calabanga, Bombon, Magarao,
3 Canaman, Naga City, Camaligan), the eastern portion of
Albay (City of Tabaco, Malilipot, Tiwi, Malinao, Santo
Lapinig, Catubig, Pambujan) and the
northern portion of Eastern Samar (San
Policarpo, Arteche, Oras, Jipapad)
-

Wind threat: Domingo, Manito, Legazpi City, Bacacay, Rapu-Rapu), and


Storm-force the northeastern portion of Sorsogon (Prieto Diaz, City of
winds Sorsogon, Gubat)
Warning lead time: 18 hours
Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)
Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property

The central portion of Eastern Samar


(Dolores, Maslog, Can-Avid, Taft, Sulat, San
The southeastern portion of Isabela (Dinapigue), Aurora, Julian, City of Borongan), the northern
Quezon, the eastern portion of Rizal (Tanay, Pililla, Jala- portion of Samar (Matuguinao, Calbayog
2 Jala), Laguna, the rest of Camarines Norte, the rest of
Camarines Sur, the rest of Albay, the rest of Sorsogon,
Burias Island, and Ticao Island
City, Santa Margarita, San Jorge, San Jose
de Buan, Tarangnan, Motiong, Gandara,
-

Wind threat: Jiabong, City of Catbalogan, Paranas,


Gale-force Hinabangan, San Sebastian, Pagsanghan),
winds and the rest of Northern Samar
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
The rest of Eastern Samar, the rest of
Samar, Biliran, the northern and central
portions of Leyte (Tunga, Pastrana, San
Miguel, Matag-Ob, Tolosa, Palo, Calubian,
Mainland Cagayan, the rest of Isabela, Quirino, Nueva
Leyte, Mayorga, Julita, Carigara, Babatngon,
Vizcaya, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, The
Dagami, Jaro, San Isidro, Santa Fe, Albuera,
Ifugao, Benguet, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, and northern
Villaba, La Paz, Palompon, Macarthur,
Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Tarlac, Pampanga, portion of
Tabontabon, Tanauan, Merida, Ormoc City,
1 Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, the rest of Rizal, Cavite,
Batangas, Marinduque, the northern portion of Oriental
Mindoro (Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Naujan, Baco, Victoria,
Isabel, Dulag, Capoocan, Alangalang,
Burauen, Tabango, Tacloban City, Kananga,
Dinagat
Islands
(Loreto,
Wind threat: Barugo, Abuyog, Javier, City of Baybay,
Socorro, Pinamalayan, Bansud, Gloria, Pola, City of Calapan), Tubajon)
Strong Mahaplag), the northeastern portion of
Romblon, and the rest of Masbate
winds Southern Leyte (Silago), the northernmost
portion of Cebu (Daanbantayan, Medellin)
including Bantayan Islands, and the
northernmost portion of Iloilo (Carles)
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property

Page 2 of 4

Prepared by: RPG Checked by: MAGGE

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 9


Super Typhoon PEPITO (MAN-YI)
Issued at 11:00 AM, 16 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 2:00 PM today.

OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS


Heavy Rainfall Outlook

Refer to Weather Advisory No. 43 issued at 11:00 AM today for the three-day heavy rainfall outlook associated with “PEPITO”.

Severe Winds

The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly
stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind
direction.

 Significant to severe impacts from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 4.
 Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 3.
 Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
 Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.

The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of PEPITO is Wind Signal No. 5.

Coastal Inundation

There is a high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak heights exceeding 3.0 m in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed
coastal localities of Ilocos Region (western coast), Isabela, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Marinduque, Bicol Region, Northern
Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, Biliran, and Leyte (northeastern coast). Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 6 issued at 8:00 AM today for the
details.

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS


A Gale Warning is hoisted over the eastern and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon and the eastern seabooad of Visayas. Refer to
Gale Warning No. 10 issued at 5:00 AM today for the details.

24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook

Up to very rough, high, or very high seas over the following coastal waters:
 Up to 14.0 m: The seaboard of Catanduanes.
 Up to 12.0 m: The northern seaboard of Camarines Sur.
 Up to 9.0 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar; the seaboard of Camarines Norte.
 Up to 7.0 m: The eastern seaboards of Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar.
 Up to 5.5 m: The remaining seaboards of Camarines Sur.
 Up to 4.5 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; the seaboards of Aurora; the remaining seaboards of Albay,
Sorsogon, and Northern Samar; the seaboards of Burias and Ticao Islands.
 Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe
harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.

Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:


 Up to 4.0 m: The seaboards of Dinagat Islands and northern Quezon.
 Up to 3.5 m: The seaboards of Isabela and Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands; the remaining seaboards of
Polillo Islands and Quezon, Bicol Region, and Eastern Visayas
 Up to 3.0 m: The eastern seaboards of Cagayan and Babuyan Islands; the seaboard of Surigao del Sur; the seaboards of Marinduque,
Romblon, and northern Cebu
 Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions,
especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.

Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:


 Up to 2.5 m: The seaboards of Batanes and Davao Oriental
 Up to 2.0 m: The seaboards of Oriental Mindoro, Aklan, Capiz, Davao del Sur, and Ilocos Region.
 Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and,
if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.

Page 3 of 4

Prepared by: RPG Checked by: MAGGE

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 9


Super Typhoon PEPITO (MAN-YI)
Issued at 11:00 AM, 16 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 2:00 PM today.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK


 PEPITO is forecast to move generally west northwestward within the next three days before turning generally westward to west
southwestward from Monday (18 November) afternoon to Thursday (21 November) early morning. On the track forecast, PEPITO is more
likely to make landfall in the vicinity of Catanduanes tonight or tomorrow (17 November) early morning. However, considering the
limits of the forecast confidence cone, a landfall scenario over the eastern coast of Camarines Sur or Albay during the same time frame (if it
moves slightly south of forecast track), or along the eastern coast of Quezon or Aurora tomorrow afternoon or evening remains (if it moves
slightly north of forecast track) not ruled out. PEPITO is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday.
 Regardless of the landfall point, the PEPITO will move generally west northwestward over the weekend and pass over or near the localities
of Bicol Region, Central Luzon, Quezon, and the southern portions of Ilocos Region and Cordillera Administrative Region before emerging
over the West Philippine Sea tomorrow evening or Monday morning.
 It must be emphasized that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall
point and the forecast confidence cone. Refer to “Other Hazards affecting Land Areas” for more details. Furthermore, the track
may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
 PEPITO is approaching its peak intensity. With radar imagery showing signs of eyewall replacement, the intensity of PEPITO may begin to
maintain or slightly decrease in the next coming hours. However, if the eyewall replacement finishes prior to its passage over Catanduanes,
the super typhoon will resume intensifying. Nevertheless, PEPITO will likely make landfall over Catanduanes as a super typhoon at or
near peak intensity, and as a super typhoon or typhoon over the Quezon-Aurora area. Significant weakening will occur during the
passage of PEPITO over mainland Luzon tomorrow, but it will likely remains as a typhoon until it reaches the West Philippine Sea.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all
necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these
hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings,
thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 2:00 PM today.

DOST-PAGASA

Page 4 of 4

Prepared by: RPG Checked by: MAGGE

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines

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