The Sixteenth-Century Price Rise New Evidence

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Economic History Review, 68, 1 (2015), pp. 167–190
The sixteenth-century price rise: new

evidence from Scotland, 1500–851
By AMY BLAKEWAY*
This article contributes to the emerging belief among early modern economic his-
torians that sixteenth-century inflation was primarily caused by monetary factors.
The Scottish case study reveals a strong relationship between coinage debasement
and rising prices, a contention strengthened by the fact that the Scottish experience
of inflation was high in European terms, and, in particular, stands at a considerable
distance from the English pattern.This study includes the first scholarly examination
of prices during the 1540s, and reveals that substantial inflation first emerged during
this hitherto neglected decade. Prices plateaued during the 1550s, and rose consist-
ently from 1560 to 1585. Meanwhile real wages declined during the 1540s and from
1560 onwards.This article is methodologically innovative in constructing two baskets
of commodities, designed to represent the elite experience, alongside a more tradi-
tional basket based on a working household. These reveal the divergent experiences
of the price rise within Scotland: rising prices hit the poor harder than the rich due
to the high cost of domestic agricultural goods in the subsistence basket and the
deflationary impact of wages and luxury goods upon the overall elite basket.
D uring the sixteenth century Europe experienced an unprecedented price rise,

the causes of which have been the subject of a debate that stretches back
through several generations of scholars. Recently, however, this venerable discus-
sion has begun to take a new turn, with monetary explanations (that is, explana-
tions related to the currency, for instance, the precious metal content of coins or
the overall supply of money) returning to favour. Accordingly, ‘real’ causes for the
price rise, including the former front-running contender, population growth, are
currently being downplayed. As Mayhew noted, this shift in emphasis from popu-
lation to monetary causes as the main factor in determining price levels brings
pre-modern price historians more into line with their modern counterparts,
among whom a consensus surrounding the pre-eminency of monetary causes for
price movements already exists.2 Nevertheless, understanding of how the price rise
affected different parts of Europe remains patchy. To date, England remains the
country blessed with the most historiographical attention.3 Recently, 20 European
cities have been identified by Allen as possessing sufficient data to merit detailed
*Author Affiliation: Homerton College, University of Cambridge.

1
I should like to thank Julian Goodare for invaluable discussions related to this topic over a number of years,
and for commenting upon this article in draft. The chronological span covered by this article will slightly overlap
with his own forthcoming study of inflation in Scotland in the period 1560–1638. I should also like to thank Clare
Jackson, Joel Halcomb, the members of Her Majesty’s Treasury History Society, in particular, Andrew Wood and
Patrick Turner, and the anonymous referees for their comments. Very many thanks are also due to Helen Bao for
her generous advice regarding linear regression.
2
Mayhew, ‘Prices in England’, p. 6.
3
For a review of the ‘basic spadework’ on English prices and subsequent developments, see ibid., pp. 3–4.
© Economic History Society 2014. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 9600 Garsington Road, Oxford OX4 2DQ, UK and 350 Main
Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA.
168 AMY BLAKEWAY
examination; yet, despite the detailed independent price histories now available for
‘so many European cities’, many countries remain under-researched.4
Among these Cinderellas of early modern European economic history is well-
studied England’s northern neighbour: Scotland.5 As a case study for the impact
of the price rise, Scotland is of particular interest since in geographical terms it
clearly sits within the ‘north-west European’ region which is usually defined as
comprising England and the Low Countries. This area is often credited with a
distinctive trend for real wages during the early modern period whereby ‘the
economy kept pace with the population’, thus ensuring that while real wages did
not rise, ‘they did not collapse’, a trend which is ascribed long-term significance in
the debate surrounding Britain’s later industrial development.6 This article dem-
onstrates that Scottish prices rose to an unusually high level (in contemporary
European terms) and posits a monetary explanation for inflation. In inflationary
terms, Scotland was thus an example, indeed, an extreme example, of the conti-
nental, rather than the north-western, pattern.
Changes to prices were reflected in the value of real wages: prior to 1560,
Scottish real wages retained a higher degree of robustness than those in England.
Between 1560 and 1585, as the Scots continued to debase their coinage while the
Elizabethan regime strengthened the English currency, English real wages main-
tained their value; meanwhile, in Scotland they rapidly declined. Given the close
geographical proximity of the two countries, and the fact that they would therefore
have been subject to a number of similar influences in terms of real inflationary
factors, the sharp divergence of their inflationary patterns is striking.
In the context of a monetary explanation for the price rise, this article also
suggests that a new approach to the old problem of inflation is necessary. Since
prices rose as a result of Crown action, the impact of the price rise upon the elite
is essential in revealing the background to decisions surrounding debasement.
There is evidence for limited contemporary French recognition of the role of
debasement in driving prices up.7 Whether or not the Scots were aware of this
connection, the fact remains that the Crown’s experience of inflation directly
affected its financial health and therefore contributed to the pressure to raise cash
which resulted in debasing the coinage. The divergence between the elite and
non-elite indexes constructed in this article suggests that rising prices hit the
Scottish Crown, but that its poorer subjects bore the inflationary brunt of monar-
chical meddling in the mint.
While Scotland’s remarkable experience of the price rise can be securely estab-
lished, two major problems impede analysis of the impact of the European-wide
price rise in the context of this particular geographically north-western, medium-
sized country. The first is that the records are relatively weak. However, this does
not mean that nothing can be learned about Scotland, nor that, with appropriate
caveats regarding reliability, Scottish data cannot form a useful point of compari-
son. Second, in addition to poor records, much basic data collection which was
begun for England in the late nineteenth century has not yet been completed for
4
Allen, ‘Great divergence’, p. 411.
5
A similar point can be made about the exclusion of the Scottish Parliament from the roll-call of elected
assemblies; Goodare, Government of Scotland, p. 1.
6
Allen, ‘Great divergence’, p. 435.
7
Munro, ‘Money, prices, wages’, p. 15.
© Economic History Society 2014 Economic History Review, 68, 1 (2015)
THE SIXTEENTH-CENTURY PRICE RISE: SCOTLAND, 1500–85 169
Scotland. These two problems are emphasized in the two most detailed and
thorough studies of early modern Scottish prices to date, Gemmill and Mayhew’s
Changing values in medieval Scotland (1995) and Gibson and Smout’s Prices, food
and wages in Scotland 1550–1780 (1995).8 While the significance of the respective
contributions of these two works cannot be overstated, the period 1542 to 1550
was not included in either. Given the importance of the 1540s elsewhere in
Europe, this omission is particularly frustrating. In filling this gap, the present
article identifies the 1540s as the point when Scotland first experienced a signifi-
cant price rise. While Scottish prices increased throughout the sixteenth century,
the 1540s and the period 1560–85 saw a significantly higher rate of inflation than
either the first 40 years of the century or the 1550s.This chronology diverges from
the English experience; by contrast, as far as can be extrapolated from the more
limited French data, the two members of the ‘auld alliance’ shared patterns of
price movements. Before discussing the details of this phenomenon, however, it is
first necessary to consider the creation of the indexes upon which these conclu-
sions are based.
Examination of the purchasing power or real value of money in the pre-modern
period was most famously undertaken by Phelps Brown and Hopkins, whose
‘basket of consumables’ compares the real value of builders’ wages in the south-
east of England from c. 1475 until the twentieth century.9 In a Scottish context,
Gibson and Smout’s calculations of the value of the purchasing power of labour-
ers’ wages from c. 1530 until the late eighteenth century constructed a similar
index for Scotland, but did not involve the creation of a weighted basket of goods.10
Indeed, constructing a basket of goods relevant to the sixteenth century Scot-on-
the-street is an exercise hampered by the fact that, as Gibson and Smout observed,
prior to the seventeenth century sources for the non-elite Scottish diet are ‘entirely
qualitative’.11 Accordingly, the speculative and indicative nature of the basket
designed to reflect the purchases of a working household must be stressed.
The second index presented here considers prices and inflation from the novel
perspective of an elite household. The influence of changing prices on Crown and
noble finances both in Scotland and elsewhere has yet to be fully elucidated. In
France ‘the upward spiral of prices . . . imposed a significant drop in the real value
of royal revenues fixed in monetary terms’.12 Much of Scottish Crown revenue was
similarly fixed, and even the most cursory glance at the royal accounts reveals that
the Crown became, in nominal terms, greatly indebted by the end of the century.13
Likewise, ‘the decades either side of 1600 saw a huge increase in noble indebted-
ness and outright ruination’.14 Considering the elite experience of inflation thus
has the potential to shed new light on a number of broader questions. For instance,
rising prices reduced real-terms Crown income while contributing to its escalating
8
Gemmill and Mayhew, Changing values; Gibson and Smout, Prices, food and wages.
9
Phelps Brown and Hopkins, ‘Seven centuries’.
10
Gibson and Smout, Prices, food and wages, pp. 337–64. For details of Scottish exchange rates, see Gilbert,
‘Usual money of Scotland’, pp. 140–2.
11
Gibson and Smout, ‘Scottish food’, pp. 59–60. For elite diet, see Gibson and Smout, ‘Food and hierarchy’,
pp. 34–43.
12
Spooner, International economy, p. 98.
13
Murray, ‘Financing the royal household’. Although slightly outside our period, see also Goodare, ‘Debts of
James VI’, pp. 931, 946.
14
Brown, ‘Aristocratic finances’, p. 48. For further discussion of implications of the price rise for noble
finances, see ibid., pp. 48–55.
170 AMY BLAKEWAY
expenditure. This real-terms diminution of Crown resources and concomitant

need for higher income underlay decisions to debase the coinage and, for instance,
seek parliamentary taxation—a policy which in turn provoked political disputes. In
a slightly different sphere, the Crown’s need for cash led to its reliance on rich
burgesses for credit and so affected the expanding credit market. However, to
speak to questions of Crown or noble finance an index must contain items beyond
those required for subsistence: luxury goods and wages need to be considered
alongside oatmeal and ale. In contrast to the lack of material available for a study
of a Scottish subsistence diet, an elite index allows the richest and most detailed
sixteenth-century Scottish accounts to be exploited: namely, the Household
Accounts, Comptroller’s Accounts, and Treasurer’s Accounts produced by the
royal court.15 Comparison between the indexes reveals the stark differences in how
the price rise affected different social groups: inflation hit those living closest to
subsistence level the hardest.
Disparity between the indexes (as revealed in figure 1; for which see below) also
highlights a crucial concern for price historians, namely, the extent to which the
commodities selected, and the proportion of expenditure afforded to each com-
modity in the basket, can affect its overall value.16 This is illustrated by considering
differing English price histories: Phelps Brown and Hopkins posited a 4.9-fold
increase in English prices between 1500 and 1600, while more recent studies have
produced lower figures, with Clark’s analysis by decade suggesting that prices in
1590–9 were 3.6 times higher than in 1500–9, Munro identifying a similar just
over three-fold increase, and Allen’s online annual index suggesting a 2.34-fold
rise (in silver prices) for the cost of his basket of consumables over the sixteenth
century.17 Encouragingly, however, when he revised his weightings in 1990, Phelps
Brown observed ‘substantial’ divergence from his original 1956 weightings only in
the eighteenth century, and Boulton’s exploration of the cost of living in
seventeenth-century London has demonstrated that, in an early modern context,
while changes to the weightings have some effect, often, ‘it really makes very little
difference which commodities and which weights are used’ to overall patterns.18
Although the weighting of these Scottish baskets could constantly be revised
(indeed, it is to be hoped that future research will unearth new sources), it is
probable that the trends that they reveal are broadly reliable.19
We shall first consider the essentials basket, stressing, once again, its speculative
nature. Food would have accounted for by far the most significant proportion: in
15
National Records of Scotland, Edinburgh (hereafter NRS), Libri Domicilii, E31/1–13; NRS, Libri
Emptorum, E32/1–12; NRS, Despenses de la Maison Royale, E33/1–9; Burton et al., eds., Treasurer’s Accounts,
vols. 1–13; NRS, Treasurer’s Accounts, 1580–5, E21/62–4; Stuart et al., eds., Exchequer Rolls, vols. 11–12.
16
The retail price index (RPI) includes housing costs and is calculated using a mean average; the consumer
price index (CPI) excludes housing costs and is calculated using a geometric average. For more on current UK
government RPI and CPI calculations, see Office for National Statistics, ‘Consumer price inflation basket of
goods and services 2014’, http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/cpi/cpi-rpi-basket/2014/index.html (accessed 27 March
2014).
17
Phelps Brown and Hopkins, ‘Seven centuries’, p. 312; Clark, ‘Condition of the working class’, pp. 1324–5;
Munro, ‘Money, prices, wages’, pp. 45–6. In local currency terms Allen, ‘Price index’ suggests a 3.5-fold price rise.
18
Phelps Brown, ‘Gregory King’s notebook’, p. 103; Phelps Brown and Hopkins, ‘Seven centuries’. For
weightings, see also Boulton, ‘Food prices’, pp. 464–8, quotation p. 468.
19
A robustness check for the elite basket based on weightings drawn from a detailed study of one month, May
1549 (selected at random from among those months with complete records), showed an average variance of 8%
with the greatest divergence at 22%. For the non-elite basket, an alternative set of weightings based on Allen’s
data, the average difference was 5% and the greatest divergence 31%.
Table 1. The essentials basket
Budget area Proportion allotted Representative commodity
Animal protein (meat, dairy, and fish) 42.5% Mart = 21.25%

Sheep = 21.25%
Cereals 15% Oatmeal = 15%
Drink 22.5% Ale = 22.5%
Food total = 80%
Fuel 7.5% Candles = 7.5%
Textiles 12.5% Canvas = 6.25%
Holland cloth = 6.25%
Source: Adapted from Phelps-Brown and Hopkins, ‘Seven centuries’, p. 297.
an English context, Phelps Brown and Hopkins allotted 80 per cent to food;
Boulton’s assessment of seventeenth-century London paupers put food at 90 per
cent of their budget, while his eighteenth-century middling and labouring budgets
entirely comprised food costs; Clark’s weightings (based on turn-of-the-
nineteenth-century data and retrospectively applied to earlier periods) allotted
73 per cent of his farm workers’ budget to food and drink; and Allen allowed
80.1 per cent of his subsistence budget for food.20 Gibson and Smout estimated
that an eighteenth-century Scots family might spend 67 per cent of their budget on
food, and that from the seventeenth to eighteenth centuries oatmeal would have
comprised up to half a household’s overall budget.21 Nevertheless, they also
present compelling qualitative evidence that a substantial dietary shift from flesh to
grain took place between the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries: before 1600,
only the very poor would have primarily relied on oats.22 In view of the lack of a
set of sixteenth-century accounts recording the consumption of non-elite Scots,
the weightings in table 1 are based on Phelps Brown and Hopkins. However, to
reflect a paucity of evidence for Scottish dairy prices, and qualitative evidence for
the significance of meat to the Scottish diet, the Phelps Brown and Hopkins ‘dairy’
expenditure has been combined with ‘meat’ to form the category of animal
protein, and a quarter of their cereal budget (5 per cent of the overall basket) has
likewise been re-assigned to the animal protein category. The inclusion of Holland
cloth, an imported fabric which was substantially cheaper than French imports,
was an unfortunate but necessary compromise since, other than canvas, there is no
dataset appertaining to Scots-produced fabrics throughout the period of study.23
In contrast, the elite basket is based upon Scottish royal accounts, which provide
an embarrassment of riches for the economic historian. Crown purchasing pat-
terns varied significantly, depending, for instance, upon the monarch’s marital
status, international circumstances, and the cycle of feasts and fasting which
comprised the court’s ritual year. In order to create weightings which account for
such variations, the average overall expenditure of the two leading Crown officials,
the Treasurer and Comptroller, on various categories over the period 1500–85
have been considered. The basket is therefore not based on a detailed analysis of
given months’ or years’ spending, which could be unusual in various ways, but
20
Phelps Brown and Hopkins, ‘Seven centuries’, p. 297; Boulton, ‘Food prices’, p. 464; Clark, ‘Long march of
history’, p. 107; Allen, ‘Great divergence’, p. 421.
21
Gibson and Smout, Prices, food and wages, pp. 343–6.
22
Gibson and Smout, ‘Scottish food’, pp. 59, 65.
23
Purchases of Scots black, although common early in the century, declined in the 1560s.
172 AMY BLAKEWAY
rather allows a range of circumstances to be reflected in a hypothetically ‘average’

basket. Each area of expenditure has been assigned a fixed weighting and repre-
sentative commodities have been selected for each category. Indeed, for the
finances of a larger establishment, subject to multiple contingencies, approaches
which step away from the trees in order to observe variations in the woods as a
whole can be highly fruitful.24
While the Comptroller’s responsibility was for ‘ordinary’ purchases (consisting
largely of food) the Treasurer purchased ‘extraordinary’ items (anything that fell
outside the Comptroller’s remit).25 There were, of course, exceptions to this rule,
and the relative significance of the two officials varied.26 Considering the extant
accounts for this period reveals that the Comptroller’s proportion of their com-
bined expenditure fluctuated from 11 per cent in 1567 to 73 per cent in 1573, with
a mean average of 40 per cent.27 This variation is attributable to the fact that
Crown expenditure invariably expanded to employ (and, often, exceed) all avail-
able income; as such, the 40 per cent figure is relatively flexible.28
The proportions afforded to types of food within this 40 per cent have been
determined on the basis of a consideration of the Crown’s household accounts.
These survive in substantial numbers only for the period 1525–65, but provide a
more detailed breakdown of daily expenditure on food and drink than those of the
Comptroller.29 Within the extant accounts, two substantially different types of
accounting practice were followed: first, that used by James V and James Hamilton,
earl of Arran and regent from 1542 to 1554; and second, the French accounting
practice employed by Marie de Guise and Mary, Queen of Scots.30 The weightings
of the foodstuffs in the basket are based on the expenditure recorded in two
Scottish-format accounts selected to provide a chronological range, one dating from
the reign of JamesV (1528–9), and one from Arran’s regency (1551–2).31 Since this
study is focused upon expenditure, only purchased goods are considered, and items
grown on royal estates for consumption are excluded. Each purchase made was
assigned to a broad category of foodstuffs, following which the total spent on items
in each category was calculated for each account, and a mean average of these totals
taken; this is displayed in table 2. Occasional payments for wages or miscellaneous
non-consumable items have been included with the fuel category. These only
constituted a tiny proportion of the Comptroller’s expenditure, and since the
Treasurer occasionally bought fuel, assessing the value of this area of expenditure on
the basis of the household accounts alone underestimates its overall value. In
24
See, for instance, Goodare, ‘Balance sheet’.
25
Murray, ‘Financing the royal household’, pp. 41–2; Dickson et al., eds., Accounts; Stuart et al., eds., Exchequer
Rolls (hereafter ER). For further information on Scottish Crown finances during this period, see Murray,
‘Procedure of the Scottish Exchequer’. For an overview of the records, see idem, ‘Pre-union records’.
26
For an overview of the Comptrollership see NRS, G.A.355.93, A. L. Murray ‘The Comptroller, 1425–1610’
(unpub. winner of the David Berry Prize, 1970). The creation of a new official, the Collector of the Thirds of
Benefices, was significant. See Donaldson, ed., Accounts.
27
Blakeway, Regency in sixteenth-century Scotland, ch. 3.
28
For an analysis of late fifteenth- and early sixteenth-century Crown expenditure, see Murray, ‘Exchequer and
Crown revenue’, esp. pp. 242–71, 295–320.
29
NRS, Libri Domicilii, James V and Arran, E31/1-E31/11; NRS, Libri Emptorum James IV, James V, and
Arran, E32/1–12; NRS, Despences de la Maison Royal Marie de Guise and Mary Queen of Scots, E33. By
contrast, only one account for James VI and two for his spouse remain extant: NRS, Household Accounts of
James VI, E31/15–17. See also Juhala, ‘Household and Court’, p. 41.
30
Juhala, ‘Household and Court’, pp. 39–41.
31
NRS, Libri Domicilii, James V, E31/2; NRS, Libri Domicilii, Regent Arran, E31/10, fos. 3v–71v.
32
Table 2. The weighting of the consumable portion of the elite basket (40%)
% of Household Book % of Household Book Mean average
expenditure, 1528–9 expenditure, 1551–2 for use in the
Commodity (/100%) (/100%) basket
Meat 32 29
Fish 13 11
Dairy 2 6 Animal protein 19
Ale 13 10 Ale 4.4
Wine 9 9
Spices 8 12 Wine and spices 7.6
Cereals/vegetables 6 10 Cereals/vegetables 3
Horse oats 12 8 Horse oats 4
Candles 1 1
Miscellaneous 4 4 Fuel 2
Total consumables = 40
Sources: Based on NRS, Libri Domicilii, James V, E31/2; NRS, Libri Domicilii, Regent Arran, E31/10, fos. 3v–71v.
assigning a category to purchases of individual commodities which were grouped

together with a single price, the whole total has been assigned to the most costly
commodity listed.
The remaining, largely non-consumable, 60 per cent of Crown expenditure fell
to the Treasurer. The weightings applied to this portion of the basket are based
upon a fuller forthcoming study of the Treasurer’s expenditure which considers
different rulers’ spending on several categories including warfare, justice, building
works, and household expenses, such as clothing and furnishings.33 The mean
average expenditure from among the different rulers considered has been calcu-
lated and scaled to fit the non-consumable 60 per cent of the overall basket.
Scottish accounting practice of the period categorized rolled-over debts accrued in
previous financial years as ‘discharge’, within the same category as new purchases;
in the present work, such debts have been removed from the calculations to
facilitate a focus on purchases. Expenditure relating to diplomacy has also been
excluded, rendering the basket of greater relevance to non-royal elite households
(since nobles had military commitments too, the same problem does not arise for
expenditure on warfare). Due to the huge range of goods purchased, representative
examples of types of commodities for each category have been selected for inclu-
sion, through a close reading of the Accounts, assessing the frequency and signifi-
cance of the types of purchase assigned to each category, and, crucially, on data
availability. This is displayed in table 3.
Full details of the strengths and weaknesses of the data appertaining to each
representative commodity are given in appendix I, but it is appropriate to consider
some general points here. Broadly speaking, for consumable goods, the datasets
collected by Gemmill and Mayhew and by Gibson and Smout provide the basis for
these calculations, with Arran’s accounts filling gaps for the 1540s.34 A significant
quantity of supplementary price data has been collected from the Treasurer’s
Accounts, including nearly 550 prices for velvet, and almost 400 prices for canvas.
Nevertheless, inadequate data have precluded the inclusion of some significant
32
Based on NRS, Libri Domicilii, James V, E31/2; NRS, Libri Domicilii, Regent Arran, E31/10, fos. 3v–71v.
33
Blakeway, Regency, ch. 3.
34
Gemmill and Mayhew, Changing values in medieval Scotland; Gibson and Smout, Prices, food and wages; NRS,
Libri Domicilii, E31/1–13; NRS, Libri Emptorum, E32/1–12.
174 AMY BLAKEWAY
Table 3. The weighting of the elite basket

Overall % of Representative % assigned in the
Category expenditure commodity basket per commodity
Meat, fish, and dairy produce 19 Mart 9.5

Sheep 9.5
Cereals, vegetables, and miscellaneous 3 Oatmeal—1 boll 3
foodstuffs
Horse oats 4 Oats—1 boll 4
Ale 4.4 Ale—1 pint 4.4
Wine and spices 7.6 Wine—1 pint 7.6
Fuel 2 Candle—1 stone 2
Justice 3 Barley—1 boll 1.5
Wheat—1 boll 1.5
Warfare 21 Average gunner’s monthly wage 10.5
Average wright’s weekly wage 10.5
Buildings 7 Iron—1 stone 7
Household 29 Canvas—1 eln 6
Holland cloth—1 eln 6
Satin—1 eln 6
Black velvet −1 eln 11
Sources: Based on tab. 2 and Blakeway, Regency in sixteenth-century Scotland, ch. 3.
items. Messengers, for instance, were an important component of Crown expendi-

ture, and dozens of payments for their activities are recorded on a monthly basis.
However, since these payments reflected the peculiarities of individual journeys
(travelling by night or in poor weather required additional rewards), it was not
possible to identify a consistently comparable service for inclusion. Similarly, data
for the cost of timber is relatively plentiful, but different sorts of timber varied
considerably in price. Unfortunately, there are insufficient data relating to any one
specific type suitable for comparison over time. However, those categories for which
representative commodities were most difficult to procure, namely, ‘justice’ and
‘warfare’, were also those which appertained particularly to the Crown rather than
to elite households more broadly. While the representative commodities for the
categories of ‘justice’ and ‘warfare’ are not as closely related to these activities as
would ideally be desirable, by including relatively robust datasets in their stead the
conclusions here are rendered more applicable to elite households beyond the court.
Nevertheless, even a relatively strong pre-modern data series, such as that
offered by the Treasurer’s Accounts, is limited. It is rarely possible to assess
variations in quality. Even when prices are relatively plentiful, the extent to which
this can be taken as an actual reflection of a good’s market value remains an open
question. Statutes setting prices imply that the commodity was being sold at prices
substantially higher than the value set in statutes. Merchants often charged the
Crown above the market rate, sometimes due to the Crown’s urgent need, but also,
on occasion, probably because they were aware they might have to wait several
months or even years to be paid, and allowance for this delay was included in their
prices.35 Such reservations are, however, usual for historical analysis of pre-modern
price data, and, despite their limitations, these baskets present the strongest
35
Murray, ‘Financing the royal household’, p. 49; Gemmill and Mayhew, Changing values, pp. 148–9.
1,200
1,000
Price index (1500 = 100)
800
600
400
200
0
1501
1503
1505
1507
1509
1511
1513
1515
1517
1519
1521
1523
1525
1527
1529
1531
1533
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85
15
Elite index Non-elite index PBH
Figure 1. Scottish indexes compared to Phelps Brown and Hopkins

Sources: Scottish elite and Scottish essentials indexes, tabs. 4 and 5 below; PBH index: Phelps Brown and Hopkins, ‘Seven
centuries’, p. 312.
data currently available.36 The resulting indexes are displayed in figure 1 and
table 5.
From the perspective of the elite basket, between 1500 and 1543–4, Scottish
prices nearly doubled; they then increased at a more rapid rate for six years, followed
by a plateau. From 1559 onwards, the rate at which prices rose was considerably
steeper than the gentler curve visible between 1500 and 1540.While the index ends
with a just under six-fold increase in prices visible by 1585, it should be noted that
during 1585 several agricultural prices peaked: as Gibson and Smout’s study shows,
this was only a temporary situation. Prices fell slightly in 1586, and, following a gap
in the data, had almost halved by the early seventeenth century.37 Since 1585–7 has
long been identified as a moment ‘when the general food position was critical’, the
five-fold increase visible c. 1580–3 may be a more accurate representation of the
general experience of inflation in an unexceptional year.38
While between 1500 and 1540 the essentials basket stuck close to the trends of,
and, indeed, at some points lagged behind, the elite basket, following 1540 it raced
ahead, with a 30-point jump in the index in 1540–1, and a second jump of 44
points in 1541–2 heralding a decade of rapidly rising prices. In both baskets, the
contrast between the 1540s and 1550s is marked, although the cost of the essen-
tials basket declined rather than merely plateauing between 1550 and the end of
the decade. When essentials prices increased from 1560 onwards, they did so at a
much sharper rate: the index ends with a 9.75-fold price increase between 1500
and 1585, although, as with the elite counterpart, the 7.5- to 8-fold increase visible
prior to the 1585 spike may be a more realistic assessment. Figure 2 shows the
36
Boulton, ‘Food prices’, p. 461.
37
Gibson and Smout, Prices, food and wages, p. 84.
38
Lythe, Economy of Scotland, pp. 14 (quotation), 18–19.
176
Table 4. Prices of component items of the basket (goods and wages), Scots pennies
Canvas Holland Satin Velvet Horse Oatmeal Barley Wheat Ale Wine Candles Wright Gunner
Year (eln) cloth (eln) (eln) (eln) oats (boll) (boll) (boll) (boll) Sheep Mart (gallon) (pint) (stone) Iron (week’s wages) (month’s wages)
1500 12 73 288 465 21 79 89 139 48 161 8 15 43 25 102 373

1501 12 70 276 463 28 65 85 139 48 172 7 16 45 25 99 373
1502 14 65 292 469 37 75 105 128 35 183 7 16 48 27 96 373
1503 14 62 295 496 40 75 120 116 22 151 7 15 48 28 98 373
1504 14 63 309 518 41 64 108 105 23 139 8 15 48 29 99 373
© Economic History Society 2014

1505 13 68 297 529 37 57 91 120 18 153 8 15 51 30 101 373
1506 14 72 301 528 38 76 101 156 21 177 8 15 51 30 102 499
1507 14 78 312 534 44 88 111 160 24 172 8 15 51 29 104 605
1508 14 80 318 532 44 91 113 141 29 176 9 15 49 33 109 646
1509 13 84 319 544 48 73 88 111 37 132 9 13 48 35 114 617
1510 12 87 319 541 47 81 93 101 37 124 9 10 48 36 118 587
1511 12 91 320 552 52 94 107 127 37 116 9 11 54 40 123 558
1512 13 91 343 597 51 103 123 149 35 190 8 11 60 41 128 558
1513 13 89 364 640 49 106 125 164 35 228 8 12 60 43 159 558
1514 13 88 368 672 41 96 114 150 34 251 8 12 56 44 190 607
1515 14 86 371 640 37 96 104 129 32 235 8 13 52 44 182 657
1516 14 75 375 630 44 99 102 140 45 140 8 10 49 43 174 706
1517 15 74 378 607 44 107 114 162 71 146 8 9 53 44 162 772
1518 15 75 378 584 54 112 129 185 89 151 9 9 57 45 151 679
1519 16 77 382 594 42 103 130 213 73 149 9 9 60 46 150 709
1520 16 79 385 604 41 121 132 240 57 148 9 9 63 46 149 739
1521 16 81 389 614 40 139 134 240 41 146 9 9 66 47 148 768
1522 17 83 392 624 39 157 145 248 40 169 9 10 69 48 146 798
1523 17 83 396 680 46 152 136 256 43 191 12 10 71 54 145 828
1524 17 84 424 720 47 140 130 245 39 252 13 10 73 55 144 825
AMY BLAKEWAY
1525 18 84 424 719 47 73 116 234 50 318 14 10 75 57 148 822

1526 18 82 418 699 56 90 123 218 61 329 14 11 83 58 152 819
1527 19 78 387 688 78 107 123 208 64 341 15 13 86 58 156 816
1528 19 78 408 684 88 110 115 235 67 300 16 14 89 56 161 806
1529 20 78 429 679 84 102 108 231 64 324 15 14 92 54 167 796
1530 20 77 440 675 137 123 120 231 56 295 13 14 96 53 172 786
1531 21 76 425 671 132 153 114 231 54 317 11 12 100 53 152 786
1532 21 79 425 649 127 141 118 231 49 346 9 13 95 52 156 794
1533 22 75 406 633 107 129 108 231 39 371 9 13 88 52 160 794
1534 19 78 402 630 77 100 139 231 21 313 10 14 87 52 161 750
1535 27 81 412 636 46 120 121 154 33 257 10 14 85 51 163 720
1536 26 85 421 627 48 115 119 138 33 220 11 14 84 51 164 752
1537 29 89 430 621 63 123 102 121 39 259 12 15 83 52 178 772
1538 22 83 428 629 68 120 133 196 43 299 12 15 81 54 177 772
1539 20 76 431 636 76 125 158 218 50 216 12 16 96 55 177 751
1540 18 79 437 644 71 135 173 240 33 269 13 16 96 55 162 740
1541 23 82 440 651 96 155 171 249 59 321 14 17 92 58 149 794
1542 23 87 433 708 113 186 191 283 74 420 14 17 93 65 164 837
1543 20 87 425 731 126 215 201 294 102 486 15 17 93 76 177 882
1544 38 90 428 792 139 223 216 322 114 589 16 17 92 81 188 884
1545 27 92 436 813 152 231 232 350 125 689 17 17 97 85 199 897
Economic History Review, 68, 1 (2015)

Table 4. Continued
Canvas Holland Satin Velvet Horse Oatmeal Barley Wheat Ale Wine Candles Wright Gunner
Year (eln) cloth (eln) (eln) (eln) oats (boll) (boll) (boll) (boll) Sheep Mart (gallon) (pint) (stone) Iron (week’s wages) (month’s wages)
1546 30 94 450 851 150 232 247 378 129 771 18 14 119 90 188 902
1547 33 103 457 870 142 233 262 441 149 751 18 13 142 96 209 937
1548 37 111 475 891 122 234 278 504 143 718 18 12 156 107 221 968

1549 41 121 429 920 122 235 293 496 140 717 19 12 156 113 212 1,010
1550 39 130 437 895 123 236 308 528 125 716 20 12 155 115 212 1,030
1551 37 132 434 906 123 237 323 429 126 715 19 12 155 108 227 1,043
1552 36 135 488 910 118 238 339 330 116 654 16 11 147 101 256 1,024
1553 34 136 484 938 134 239 354 334 95 623 15 13 149 93 256 1,103
1554 36 136 493 953 141 240 369 338 76 553 15 13 151 91 260 1,179
1555 37 137 502 969 170 256 385 318 68 482 16 13 138 95 263 1,274
1556 39 137 511 984 176 272 400 454 76 464 16 13 132 98 267 1,269
1557 41 138 520 1,000 181 392 507 487 72 468 16 13 133 102 277 1,226
1558 43 139 529 1,015 182 376 508 512 72 473 16 14 149 105 269 1,182
1559 44 139 538 1,031 182 336 455 538 71 477 19 14 155 110 256 1,192
1560 46 140 547 1,046 183 280 367 434 79 493 21 14 160 116 256 1,230
1561 52 140 556 1,188 206 368 485 544 94 547 27 13 176 121 286 1,222
1562 57 141 565 1,276 262 504 619 669 107 600 29 11 187 121 282 1,208
1563 68 166 627 1,359 367 573 787 680 119 647 27 12 190 140 282 1,169
1564 70 201 662 1,412 368 549 728 766 126 693 23 12 193 144 282 1,187
1565 72 235 696 1,464 369 501 656 673 116 800 20 14 197 147 286 1,204
1566 72 241 756 1,463 371 581 696 487 113 800 23 13 200 151 290 1,238
1567 67 265 771 1,461 372 613 741 464 93 800 24 14 198 153 284 1,242
1568 67 252 754 1,459 374 693 860 554 88 800 24 14 195 154 286 1,309
1569 67 251 748 1,456 375 640 847 734 84 876 24 15 193 156 288 1,310
1570 67 232 738 1,454 376 640 873 928 105 952 24 16 191 157 289 1,370
1571 70 260 760 1,372 377 552 760 1,122 120 1,028 24 17 188 159 294 1,429
1572 80 288 782 1,432 377 456 565 1,316 136 1,104 27 17 186 165 296 1,444
1573 93 272 802 1,451 378 536 592 913 126 1,180 29 18 183 171 297 1,454
1574 106 269 800 1,503 379 704 752 1,140 126 1,255 32 21 181 175 299 1,464
1575 109 269 880 1,557 380 960 1,080 1,172 133 1,331 32 24 185 179 300 1,467
1576 107 295 953 1,690 381 973 1,133 1,205 152 1,407 35 27 213 184 302 1,475
1577 111 300 1,029 1,808 382 907 1,055 1,238 152 1,483 37 33 228 188 303 1,462
1578 104 322 1,089 1,961 382 680 801 1,355 152 1,559 43 34 238 192 305 1,432
1579 101 336 1,159 2,037 383 667 761 1,377 107 1,635 45 33 235 216 306 1,385
1580 115 358 1,290 2,323 384 627 747 1,399 120 1,526 48 33 229 220 304 1,352
1581 128 374 1,335 2,500 395 747 853 1,308 134 1,418 45 34 241 224 324 1,383
1582 154 380 1,380 2,615 405 880 1,000 1,216 182 1,309 40 34 259 228 344 1,342
THE SIXTEENTH-CENTURY PRICE RISE: SCOTLAND, 1500–85
1583 147 384 1,425 2,493 416 1,067 1,187 926 179 1,200 40 34 291 232 364 1,353
1584 134 388 1,470 2,687 427 1,573 1,707 1,265 185 1,200 49 43 321 236 384 1,438
1585 121 392 1,515 2,880 437 1,920 2,080 1,717 165 1,200 61 51 334 240 384 1,523
Note: Figures in italics indicate that no data were available for that year.
Source: Data sources given in app. I.
177

178 AMY BLAKEWAY
Table 5. The Scottish price indexes, 1500–85

Year Non-elite index Elite index Year Non-elite index Elite index
1500 100.0 100.0 1543 261.8 187.6

1501 100.3 92.9 1544 302.5 201.2
1502 101.9 94.3 1545 340.0 211.7
1503 87.2 93.6 1546 370.7 221.5
1504 81.5 94.8 1547 374.8 227.1
1505 83.5 95.6 1548 365.4 230.4
1506 96.9 107.0 1549 365.8 234.2
1507 99.4 115.7 1550 361.9 234.0
1508 103.5 119.3 1551 361.7 234.4
1509 88.1 115.2 1552 337.5 229.7
1510 87.6 112.6 1553 320.9 234.0
1511 88.9 112.2 1554 293.0 235.5
1512 114.3 121.4 1555 270.7 239.8
1513 126.9 127.8 1556 270.7 242.4
1514 131.0 134.3 1557 298.2 245.0
1515 124.7 133.9 1558 298.0 244.2
1516 97.9 131.3 1559 291.7 246.0
1517 110.5 136.9 1560 288.5 249.1
1518 119.7 131.1 1561 334.4 268.5
1519 112.6 132.9 1562 389.0 285.3
1520 111.6 135.5 1563 426.2 302.7
1521 110.7 137.8 1564 440.3 313.7
1522 122.3 142.7 1565 463.3 325.1
1523 130.5 151.0 1566 482.3 330.1
1524 146.6 158.0 1567 485.1 331.3
1525 156.6 161.1 1568 500.0 337.9
1526 168.5 161.2 1569 510.6 342.7
1527 177.4 160.8 1570 539.5 353.7
1528 166.6 158.8 1571 551.3 358.7
1529 171.5 159.5 1572 563.2 370.5
1530 164.2 158.5 1573 602.7 375.6
1531 177.0 159.1 1574 666.4 392.4
1532 181.2 159.2 1575 751.3 413.7
1533 182.1 157.2 1576 790.9 435.3
1534 151.4 148.1 1577 803.6 449.9
1535 142.8 143.3 1578 781.1 461.2
1536 130.2 142.8 1579 789.5 469.1
1537 147.4 147.4 1580 753.6 487.4
1538 159.3 151.3 1581 753.5 502.2
1539 137.1 146.5 1582 767.4 510.6
1540 151.2 149.2 1583 777.1 500.9
1541 181.3 160.0 1584 899.0 542.1
1542 225.2 175.8 1585 975.4 578.0
Source: Based on data in tabs. 1, 3, and 4.
impact of this price rise upon real wages: although the proportions and contents of
the essentials basket remain speculative, the data for nominal wages, as paid by the
Crown, are reasonably strong.
While wage data for the earlier part of the century are weaker, in the context of low
inflation, the generally positive, although fluctuating, picture appears plausible.
Unsurprisingly, wages lagged behind the inflation of the 1540s and from 1560 to
1585. In this context payments in kind must have been important, especially since
the most inflationary goods were the basic cereals, namely horse oats, oatmeal, and
barley. To compare the increasing costs of individual goods and wages, please see
tables 4 and 6.The fact that the Scots gunners, wrights, and masons enjoyed higher
250
200
Real wage index (1500 = 100)
150
100
50
0
1500
1502
1504
1506
1508
1510
1512
1514
1516
1518
1520
1522
1524
1526
1528
1530
1532
1534
1536
1538
1540
1542
1544
1546
1548
1550
1552
1554
1556
1558
1560
1562
1564
1566
1568
1570
1572
1574
1576
1578
1580
1582
84
15
Gunner Wright Mason PBH
Figure 2. Weekly real wages index

Sources: Gunners and wrights: wage data from tab. 4. Masons: Gibson and Smout, Prices, food and wages, p. 305; Dickson et al.,
eds., Accounts, vols. 2–13; NRS, Treasurer’s Accounts, 1580–5, E21/62-4. The essentials index given in tab. 5 was used in all
calculations.
real wages than the English building craftsmen of Phelps Brown and Hopkins prior
to the 1570s might be attributable to the fact that the Scots data appertain to Crown
employees. From the perspective of an elite household, cash wages, like luxury
goods, had a deflationary influence. The price disparity between ‘raw’ and ‘manu-
factured’ goods revealed in table 6 is broadly comparable to England, France, and
other European countries, where the rise in cereal prices far outstripped those of
other commodities, including meat, fuel, and labour.39 As a consequence, the price
of manufactured goods lagged behind ‘raw’ agricultural products: cheap labour kept
the price of bread and ale low compared to the price of wheat and barley. In short,
while real wages declined compared to the cost of cereals, changes to the standard
of living may not have been as dire as these raw figures imply.This is particularly so
in view of the strong probability that the cost of rent lagged behind the price rise.40
Although in the context of modern inflation these figures might not appear
particularly excessive, in medieval and early modern terms a 10-fold or even six-fold
increase over 85 years was significant. Such an increase would have had a substantial
impact on contemporaries since many early modern Scottish economic agreements,
notably feuing lands and setting wages, did not make provision for future price
increases. More broadly, these findings confirm previous identifications of rising
prices in the late sixteenth century.While Morton’s debasement of the coinage from
1572 onwards has long been recognized as a significant moment in Scottish price
history, Lynch has drawn attention to the Marian civil wars (1567–73) and the
39
Nef, ‘Prices and industrial capitalism’, pp. 166–7; Spooner, International economy, p. 268. Observing differing
rates of inflation among different goods is not incompatible with a monetary explanation for inflation since
‘commodities have varying levels of elasticity of demand. In difficult times . . . people economize on luxuries or
inessentials, which accordingly rise in price less than necessities’; Mayhew, ‘Prices in England’, p. 8.
40
Brown, ‘Aristocratic finances’, p. 57.
180

Table 6. Five-year interval index of component items of the basket (goods and wages)
Year Canvas Holland cloth Satin Velvet Horse oats Oatmeal Barley Wheat Sheep Mart Ale Wine Candles Iron Wright Gunner
1500 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
1505 107 93 103 114 175 72 103 86 38 95 100 100 119 120 99 100
1510 99 120 111 116 223 103 104 73 77 77 117 66 112 144 116 157
1515 112 118 129 138 176 121 117 93 67 146 100 85 121 176 178 176
1520 131 108 134 130 195 154 149 173 119 92 112 60 148 185 146 198
1525 145 115 147 155 223 93 130 168 104 198 170 68 175 227 145 220
1530 168 105 153 145 654 156 135 166 117 183 167 90 225 213 169 211
1535 222 111 143 137 221 152 137 111 69 160 128 92 200 205 159 193
1540 148 108 152 138 339 172 194 173 69 167 167 106 225 220 159 198
1545 222 126 151 175 726 294 261 252 260 428 217 113 227 341 195 240
1550 320 178 152 192 584 300 347 380 260 445 250 78 364 460 208 276
1555 307 187 174 208 810 325 433 228 142 299 200 86 323 378 258 342
AMY BLAKEWAY
1560 378 192 190 225 871 356 413 235 165 306 267 93 375 463 251 330
1565 591 322 242 315 1,759 637 739 289 242 497 250 93 461 589 280 323
1570 550 318 256 313 1,789 814 983 360 219 591 300 104 446 630 284 367
1575 895 368 306 335 1,809 1,220 1,216 543 277 827 400 158 434 718 294 393
1580 945 490 448 500 1,829 797 841 623 250 948 600 218 537 880 298 362
1585 994 537 526 619 2,083 2,441 2,342 696 344 745 767 334 783 960 376 408
Note: Based on data in tab. 4.

‘peculiar cumulative effects of the circulation of two sets of coin of different intrinsic
values combined with severe and artificially induced food shortages’, circumstances
which ‘accelerated the rate of price inflation’, particularly in the Edinburgh area.41
This description of the early 1570s can be applied almost wholesale to the 1540s,
when Scotland first experienced significant inflation.
Clearly, something significant changed in the Scottish economy c. 1540, the
moment when the Scots began experimenting with their coinage: the ‘extremely
large’ quantity of base metal coinage struck throughout the 1540s was issued at the
debased rate first introduced in 1538.42 The 1538 coinage had proved sufficiently
controversial that the Master of the Mint, John Acheson, ‘declined to strike the
new coins’.43 Despite Acheson’s scruples, from 1540 onwards the profits of
debasement grew in significance as a source of Crown income.44 The fact that
serious debasement began in 1538 is significant in view of the fact that the first
indication of the 1540s price rise was visible between 1539 and 1542, several years
before the intense conflict of the Anglo-Scottish war known as the Rough Wooings,
from 1544 onwards. The 1540 Parliamentary Act ‘For eschewing of derth of
wittalis, flesche and fische’ with its intention ‘to stop the rysing of prices in
markettis within burrows’ underscores this point.45 In the context of James V’s
reputation as the most financially successful of all the Stewarts, the probability that
this golden boy’s debasement policy drove inflation in the longer term modifies
accounts of his economic prudence.46 Further evidence for the impact of debase-
ment can be seen in Crown attempts to bring the face value of the coinage closer
to the market value of the metal it contained during the 1550s.47 This is potentially
corroborative evidence of recent upheavals in prices; indeed, it may also partly
explain the price stagnation of the 1550s. Turning to the second period of sub-
stantial inflation, from the 1560s onwards, Gilbert has identified 1560 as the date
when ‘the most marked decline of the Scots coinage’ commenced, corresponding
exactly with the end of the 1550s price slump.48
While debasement (that is, reducing the precious metal content) of the coinage
was probably the most important factor in driving inflation, during the 1540s the
situation appears to have been exacerbated by the economic impact of the Rough
Wooings. It has already been observed that Scottish agricultural goods largely
drove the price rise, although gaps in the data for barley and oatmeal during the
Rough Wooings are highly frustrating. Nevertheless, an increase in the price of
domestically produced food in this period is unsurprising since the political
circumstances of the 1540s placed pressure on Scottish farming. English corre-
spondence relating to the war consistently reveals a deliberate policy of attacking
Scottish agriculture.49 Piling insult upon injury, in a proclamation of October 1547
the English attempted to make a virtue of their destruction of Scottish corn in the
41
Hewitt, Scotland under Morton, pp. 150–5; Lynch, ed., Edinburgh, pp. 147–8.
42
Holmes, Scottish coins, pp. 2, 5–6. See also Stevenson, ‘Bawbee issues’, pp. 139–40.
43
Gemmill and Mayhew, Changing values, p. 136.
44
Challis, ‘Debasement: the Scottish experience’, p. 190.
45
Brown et al., eds., Records of the Parliaments of Scotland (hereafter RPS), 1540/12/70.
46
For commentary on James V’s finances, see Cameron, James V, pp. 257–62; Murray, ‘Financing the royal
household’, pp. 49–59.
47
Challis, ‘Debasement: the Scottish experience’, pp. 172 (fig. 1), 173, 190.
48
Gilbert, ‘Usual money of Scotland’, p. 132.
49
For instance, see TNA, SP49.8, fos. 183–4, Hertford et al. to Henry VIII, 18 Sept. 1545. For discussion of
further examples of this policy, see Merriman, Rough Wooings, pp. 144, 152.
182 AMY BLAKEWAY
battle for ‘hearts and minds’. The proclamation, issued by the warden of the East
Marches, William Lord Grey of Wilton, enjoined its Scottish audience not to do
homage to the governor, Arran, while promising that in the context of scarce
victuals (the reasons which were, unsurprisingly, not enumerated), Edward VI was
willing to sell to the Scots from his own stores at a reasonable price; this hypo-
critical generosity was facilitated by England’s good harvest of 1547.50 Grey thus
cleverly connected the theoretical issues of loyalty and the legitimacy of govern-
ment with an immediate and tangible concern. By juxtaposing the question ‘who
is the legitimate ruler?’ with the pressing issue of ‘who will ensure that I can feed
my family?’ Grey’s proclamation invited Scots to transfer their loyalty to England
as the Crown with the corn.51 In addition to their scorched earth policy, the
English army brought with them substantial quantities of their own heavily
debased currency.52 A proclamation of May 1547 imposing a lower circulation
value on English coin such as the ‘bagcheeks groat’ of Henry VIII ‘under ye pane
of deid’ demonstrates an awareness of the potential impact of such foreign coin
and an attempt to halt the flow of silver coinage out of the realm.53 In addition, vast
quantities of French money flowed into Scotland during this period. The wide-
spread circulation of two foreign currencies would have exacerbated rising prices.54
To enhance the impression that a biblical scourge was stalking 1540s Scotland, a
comparison which contemporaries did not neglect to draw, there is evidence for a
significant outbreak of plague in 1545 ‘quhair mony peipill diet with greit skant and
want of victuallis’, and another in 1547, although it is possible that these references
in fact alluded to the same incident.55 In any event, the impact on population is
unclear. While population has traditionally been considered a key mover in the
European price rise, as noted above, its role has recently been reassessed in favour
of increased emphasis on monetary causes.56 In any event, it is not possible to
comment in detail upon any potential connection between, or concurrent move-
ment of, population and inflation in Scotland during this period, since the sources
available for this subject are scant.Whyte’s 1993 assessment that, as far as popula-
tion studies go, sixteenth-century Scotland has been ‘virtually ignored’ remains true
today.57 Nevertheless, Whyte posited ‘substantial’ sixteenth-century growth, with
the greatest increases visible in the last quarter of the century.58 Houston has
suggested that while ‘the balance of probability is that famines, wars and disease kept
growth rates low’ until the mid-sixteenth century, it appears likely the Scottish
population increased from 1570 onwards.59 While increasing population thus
coincided with increasing prices for the final years of this study, since the rise in
50
TNA, SP50/2, fo. 67, Grey to Somerset, 27 Oct. 1547; Hoskins, ‘Harvest fluctuations’, p. 28.
51
For English attempts to secure elite Scottish loyalty, see Merriman, ‘Assured Scots’; for cross-border changes
of loyalty in an earlier context, see Gardner, ‘To take or to make?’, pp. 18, 21–2.
52
Glassman and Redish, ‘Currency depreciation’, pp. 79, 84–8; Challis, Tudor coinage, pp. 81–111; Gould,
Great debasement, p. 2; Challis, ‘Debasement of the coinage’.
53
NRS, Privy Council Register, 1545–8, PC1/1, fo. 63v. For later French attempts to address inflation by
controlling foreign coin, see Parsons, ‘Governing sixteenth-century France’, p. 5.
54
For the disastrous effect of foreign currency on French prices, see Raveau, ‘La crise’, esp. pp. 32–4.
55
Thomson, ed., Diurnal, p. 39; Lesley, History of Scotland, p. 193.
56
Mayhew, ‘Prices in England’; Munro, ‘Money, prices, wages’, p. 16.
57
Whyte, ‘Scottish population’, p. 31.
58
Whyte, Scotland, p. 113.
59
Houston, Population history, pp. 17–18.
prices pre-dates that speculatively identified for population, it is unlikely that an
increasing number of mouths to feed was the primary inflationary factor.
How did Scottish prices fit into broader European trends? As figure 1 shows, the
English Phelps Brown and Hopkins index largely shared the fortunes of the
Scottish indexes prior to 1540, after which date, with the exception of the impact
of poor harvests and influenza driving English prices up in 1557, Scottish inflation
accelerated beyond the rate of its English counterpart, with a particularly marked
contrast developing after 1560.This pattern reflects varying experiences of debase-
ment: an 87 per cent drop in the metal content of Scottish coins between 1456 and
1603 far exceeded the 51 per cent decline in England during the same period.60 In
turn, this prompted the well-known weakening of the Scottish pound against
sterling. Prior to 1560, debasement of the coinage on both sides of the border
ensured the approximate stability of a 1:4 English: Scottish exchange rate. Fol-
lowing the Elizabethan recoinage, during the 1560s, this was 1:5 or 1:6, reaching
1:7 by 1582 and 1:10 by 1590.61 Even allowing for the relatively low levels of
English inflation, Scotland’s experience of the phenomenon was unusually high. In
Brabrant prices increased just over five-fold.62 In France, meanwhile, between the
reign of Louis XII (1488–1515) and Henri III (1574–89) the purchasing power of
the livre tournois dropped by 68.3 per cent.63
In conclusion, Crown debasement of the coinage from 1538, pursued with
increasing vigour after 1560, drove Scottish inflation. On occasion, the long-term
effects of debasement were exacerbated by the influence of short-term, real infla-
tionary factors, in particular, changes to supply, especially through poor harvests
caused by weather or, as in the 1540s, war.64 Indeed, these probably garnered more
immediate contemporary attention and concern than longer-term trends. The
especially high rise in the cost of domestic goods ensured that those living closest
to subsistence level experienced more serious inflation than the rich, who were
cushioned by their expenditure on falling real wages and luxury imports, whose
prices rose slowly. The fact that Scottish elite inflation outstripped that experi-
enced by working households elsewhere in Europe, but was in turn overshadowed
by that endured by ordinary Scots, only serves to highlight the extremity of this
example. Indeed, Scotland’s north-western position within Europe renders its
experience particularly remarkable. Nevertheless, although extreme, the Scottish
experience was not entirely unique. As elsewhere in Europe, it was the lure of a
quick-fix cash boost from the mint which encouraged the struggling Scottish
Crown to embrace debasement; a policy which both responded to and, in turn,
caused, ever higher prices.
Date submitted 18 January 2013

Revised version submitted 29 August 2013
Accepted 23 October 2013
DOI: 10.1111/1468-0289.12051
60
Challis, ‘Debasement: the Scottish experience’, p. 173.
61
Gilbert, ‘Usual money of Scotland’, pp. 140–2.
62
Munro, ‘Money, prices, wages’, pp. 45–6.
63
Nef, ‘Prices and industrial capitalism’, pp. 174–5; Raveau, ‘La crise’, pp. 2–3.
64
For similar cautions, see Spooner, International economy, p. 280; Mayhew, ‘Prices in England’, p. 6; Munro,
‘Money, prices, wages’, pp. 15–16.
184 AMY BLAKEWAY
Footnote references
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Explorations in Economic History, 38 (2001), pp. 411–47.
Allen, R. C., ‘Price index’, http://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/People/sites/Allen/SitePages/Biography.aspx (accessed on
8 Aug. 2013).
Blakeway, A., Regency in sixteenth-century Scotland (Woodbridge, forthcoming).
Boulton, J., ‘Food prices and the standard of living in London in the “century of revolution”, 1580–1700’,
Economic History Review, LIII (2000), pp. 455–92.
Brown, K. M., ‘Aristocratic finances and the origins of the Scottish Revolution’, English Historical Review, 104,
410 (1989), pp. 46–87.
Brown, K. M. et al., eds., The Records of the Parliaments of Scotland to 1707 (St Andrews, 2007–13), http://
www.rps.ac.uk (accessed on 14 Jan. 2013).
Cameron, J., James V: the personal rule 1528–42 (East Linton, 1998).
Challis, C. E., ‘The debasement of the coinage, 1542–1551’, Economic History Review, 2nd ser., XX (1967),
pp. 441–66.
Challis, C. E., ‘Debasement: the Scottish experience in the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries’, in D. M. Metcalf,
ed., Coinage in medieval Scotland (1100–1600): the second Oxford Symposium on Coinage and Monetary History
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Challis, C. E., The Tudor coinage (Manchester, 1978).
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Clark, G., ‘The long march of history: farm wages, population, and economic growth, England 1209–1869’,
Economic History Review, 60 (2007), pp. 97–135.
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Gibson, A. J. S. and Smout, T. C., ‘Food and hierarchy in Scotland, 1550–1650’, in L. Leneman, ed., Perspectives
in Scottish social history: essays in honour of Rosalind Mitchison (Aberdeen, 1988), pp. 33–52.
Gibson, A. J. S. and Smout, T. C., ‘Scottish food and Scottish history’, in R. A. Houston and I. Whyte, eds.,
Scottish society 1500–1800 (Cambridge, 1989), pp. 59–84.
Gibson, A. J. S. and Smout, T. C., Prices, food and wages in Scotland, 1550–1780 (Cambridge, 1995).
Gilbert, J. M., ‘The usual money of Scotland and exchange rates against foreign coin’, in D. M. Metcalf, ed.,
Coinage in medieval Scotland (1100–1600): the second Oxford Symposium on Coinage and Monetary History
(Oxford, 1977), pp. 131–54.
Glassman, D. and Redish, A., ‘Currency depreciation in early modern England and France’, Explorations in
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Gould, J. D., The great debasement: currency and the economy in mid-Tudor England (Oxford, 1970).
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APPENDIX I: THE CREATION OF THE SCOTTISH PRICE

INDEXES, 1500–85
In ideal circumstances, data for this study would have been gathered from one data source,
which provided an unbroken series of prices of goods of comparable quality and from a
similar geographical area throughout the period. Sadly, such a source simply does not exist:
instead, a ‘make do and mend’ attitude has been necessary. Extant evidence from at least
35 of the 85 years under consideration here was a prerequisite for including a series;
frustratingly, even this low bar excluded several important commodities for which data
have been gathered.
Due to the thorough nature of the studies by Gemmill and Mayhew and by Gibson and
Smout, when possible, their datasets have been utilized.65 For consumables, this has been
supplemented by two sources previously unused by price historians: for 1543–53, Arran
and de Guise’s manuscript household accounts, and from 1560 to 1572 the printed
Accounts of the Collector of the Thirds of Benefices.66 In several instances additional data
have been collected from the Exchequer Rolls and Treasurer’s Accounts.67 Before turning
to individual data series, however, some health warnings are necessary. Since Gemmill and
65
Gibson and Smout, Prices, food and wages; Gemmill and Mayhew, Changing values.
66
NRS, Libri Domicilii, E31/1–13; NRS, Libri Emptorum, E32/1–12; NRS, Despenses de la Maison Royale,
E33/1–9; Donaldson, ed., Accounts.
67
Stuart, ed., Exchequer Rolls, vols. 11–21; Dickson et al., eds., Accounts; NRS, Treasurer’s Accounts, 1580–5,
E21/62–4.
186 AMY BLAKEWAY
Mayhew made extensive use of the royal accounts, substantial continuity exists across
1500–53. However, particular problems are associated with data for several consumable
commodities: from the 1540s onwards the Exchequer Rolls record significantly fewer
sale/purchase prices (as opposed to set prices determined to commute payments in kind).
This change is attributable to the fact that fewer of the Comptroller’s records survive
following 1542. Considering the 1540s, this situation is exacerbated by the fact that many
Crown lands were in the hands of the Queen Dowager, Marie de Guise, and therefore did
not appear in the main Crown records. Although Arran’s household accounts compensate
for this loss, the prices paid by the household frequently exceed those paid in other sources;
for several commodities, prices drawn from the household have been adjusted downwards.
While Gibson and Smout’s study of prices post-1550 made some use of royal records, they
instead largely relied upon burgh records, which increase in number from the 1550s
onwards. Data for consumable commodities are mainly drawn from two sources, with the
shift from Crown to burgh as the best source for food prices falling at roughly c. 1553,
when Arran’s household accounts end.
The figures in table 4 are three-year rolling mean averages, a technique employed to
mitigate the potential impact of unrepresentative prices or low quantities of data. Gaps
have been filled by using a linear regression with constraints between the surrounding
years; figures in italics throughout indicate that no data were available for that year. Prices
either less than half or over double the next highest or lowest price within a three-year
range have been excluded, as have items described as atypical.
Animal protein
Meat, poultry, and fish are represented by marts (cows or oxen intended for slaughter), and
whole sheep. Both Gemmill and Mayhew and Gibson and Smout made use of the plentiful
data for these animals in Crown accounts, with the latter pair restricting their attentions to
purchases made between August and January, thus excluding premium young meat.68
Prices for animals varied significantly depending on the season.The data drawn from Arran
and de Guise’s household accounts for the period 1542–54 have been restricted to the
period from August to January, rendering the data more comparable with those gathered
by Gibson and Smout.69 Animals described as ‘fattened’ and or as ‘veal’ were excluded.70
As with their English equivalents, few data survive for Scottish dairy products.71 Spo-
radic data confirm they were not excluded from the price rise: in 1542, a stone of butter
cost c. 9–10s., by 1552, c. 12s./stone was the norm, and prices doubled to c. 24s./stone in
1572.72 As animal-derivative products, and a minor area of expenditure, dairy goods are
included in this section of the basket. As a key item of diet during religious fast periods, it
would have been desirable to include fish as a separate commodity in the basket; never-
theless, difficulties in ascertaining the exact quantities in which fish was sold precluded
this. Since, unlike dairy goods, fish prices were not likely to have been subject to the same
variables as meat, this exclusion is particularly problematic.
68
Gibson and Smout, Prices, food and wages, pp. 204–8; Gemmill and Mayhew, Changing values, pp. 236–77.
69
NRS, Libri Domicilii, E31/1–13; NRS, Libri Emptorum, E32/1–12; NRS, Despenses de la Maison Royale,
E33/1–9; Gibson and Smout, Prices, food and wages, p. 186.
70
For examples of excluded beasts, see Gemmill and Mayhew, Changing values, p. 243; Gibson and Smout,
Prices, food and wages, p. 204.
71
72
NRS, Libri Emptorum, E32/8, 1542–3; NRS, Libri Domicilii, E31/11, 1522–3; NRS, Account of the Regent
Mar’s Household, E34/31, 1572.
Cereals
As the most important cereals in the Scottish diet, the values of wheat and oats were key
components of Gibson and Smout’s examination of the real value of labourers’ wages.73
Data for wheat gathered by Gemmill and Mayhew are largely drawn from Crown records,
and Gibson and Smout extrapolated an implied price of wheat from Edinburgh statutes
relating to the cost of bread.74 Comparing the price of wheat to the price of oatmeal and
barley, cheaper staple cereals, from 1556 onwards suggests that the figures thus extracted
are low, even for statutes. Although the Exchequer Rolls occasionally provide examples of
prices from 1540 onwards, these were insufficient to continue the series. The Exchequer
Roll sale prices produced a mixed picture compared to the Edinburgh statutes: in two
years, 1563 and 1573, the statute prices exceeded Crown payments, but on the four other
comparisons Crown prices exceeded statute prices by up to 2.27-fold.75 In view of the
comparison with oatmeal and barley, statute prices have been raised by 2.27-fold and
where multiple prices exist for a given year the highest has been selected. Nevertheless, it
is likely that these remain too low.When possible, the series is supplemented by prices from
the Exchequer Rolls. For the 1540s prices were sourced from the Treasurer’s Accounts,
Exchequer Rolls, and Arran’s accounts.76 Arran’s master of household made occasional
cereal purchases, but he usually bought the finished product: bread. Arguably the inclusion
of wheat rather than bread is a point of weakness, although since there is a lack of clarity
surrounding the size of loaves, a boll of wheat provides a more comparable commodity.77
Despite their importance in Scotland, the data for oats are problematic.78 Gemmill and
Mayhew observe that a considerable range of prices exists; this is re-enforced by the
consistent presence of two sets of prices in the Edinburgh price statutes gathered by
Gibson and Smout, for ‘best’ and ‘second’ oats.79 However, there is hope for comparability.
The Edinburgh ‘best corn’ statutes often closely match the Gemmill and Mayhew average
for that year. Compare, for instance, the 1508 statute price of 64d./boll and the 63d./boll
price average; the 1529 statute price of 96d./boll and the average price of 90d./boll from
Gemmill and Mayhew.80 Similarly, prices obtained from the Exchequer Rolls and Collec-
tors of the Thirds for the period from 1553 onwards match statutes: in 1562 a 256d./boll
statute price falls very close to the average price of 263d./boll.81 Thus, prior to 1542,
Gemmill and Mayhew’s data have been employed alongside Gibson and Smout’s ‘best
corn’ statutes, and continuity throughout the period has been ensured by using both
Exchequer and statute prices. The period 1542–53, when Arran’s household accounts
dominate, is more complex.82 The 160d. statute price of 1554–5 closely reflects his average
of 162d./boll of 1553—indeed, many purchases were made at that rate during the sur-
rounding years. However, the 1546 statute price of 176d./boll is substantially below
Arran’s average of 279d./boll for that year and averages of 218d./boll and 215d./boll in
1545 and 1547 respectively. The average difference between prices was 63 per cent, to
which figure Arran’s prices have been lowered.
73
Gibson and Smout, Prices, food and wages, pp. 337–64.
74
Gemmill and Mayhew, Changing values, pp. 144–60; Gibson and Smout, Prices, food and wages, p. 55.
75
For the lower prices, see ER, vol. 19, p. 183; ER, vol. 20, p. 124.
76
NRS, Libri Domicilii, E31/9–E31/13; NRS, Libri Emptorum, E32/8–E32/12; NRS, Treasurer’s Accounts,
1543–6, E21/41, fo. 250v; NRS, Bailie ad extra, bailie of burgh and custumar’s accounts, E38/423–E38/433;
NRS,Treasurer’s Accounts, 1543–6, E21/41, fo. 212v, 235; NRS, Decision on set price of victuals, 16 Aug. 1546,
PC1/1, fo. 38. Data for the 1560s were also supplemented: NRS, Treasurer’s Accounts, 1561–3, E21/54, fo. 89v.
77
For the problems with using wheat as a substitute for bread, see Allen, ‘Great divergence’, pp. 418–20.
78
For oatmeal’s importance as the ‘staff of life’ for many Scots, see Gibson and Smout, ‘Scottish food’, p. 64.
79
Gemmill and Mayhew, Changing values, p. 188; Gibson and Smout, Prices, food and wages, p. 57.
80
Gemmill and Mayhew, Changing values, pp. 196–9. All the statute prices quoted in this paragraph are taken
from Gibson and Smout, Prices, food and wages, p. 57.
81
Stuart et al., eds., ER, vols. 18–21; Donaldson, ed., Accounts.
82
NRS, Libri Domicilii, E31/9–13; NRS, Libri Emptorum, E32/8–12.
188 AMY BLAKEWAY
Data for oatmeal and barley are much stronger, with both yielding many prices in the
pre-1542 Exchequer Rolls, and an excellent series of prices set by the Fife fiars from 1556
onwards.83 Unfortunately, as few cereal purchases were recorded in Arran’s household
accounts, few oatmeal or barley prices have been identified for the 1540s. While most
prices in the Exchequer Rolls from 1556 onwards are commutations, some examples of
sales point to comparability of the spliced datasets. The 1556 fiar set barley at 320d./boll,
as compared to an average Exchequer Roll price of 312d./boll; similarly the 1573 barley
fiar price of 456d./boll compares closely to several sales at 480d./boll in the Exchequer
Rolls. The high 1580 oatmeal fiar of 720d./boll is reflected in Exchequer prices of 800d./
boll and 640d./boll that year; the drop in fiar prices in 1565 to 384d./boll is affirmed by a
complaint that 320d./boll constituted the ‘hieast price’ paid that year in the Accounts of the
Collectors of the Thirds.84 Prices are therefore unadjusted. This price comparability is
particularly important since oatmeal and barley experienced exceptionally high price rises
during this period, although it should be noted that 1585–6 was an exceptionally dear year
and prices subsequently fell.85
Drink
Ale was the most important drink for the vast majority of Scots. Both Gemmill and
Mayhew and Gibson and Smout collected the statute prices set in Aberdeen, with the latter
pair even extending their interest to the 1540s, thus creating a complete series for the whole
period.86 It should be noted that these data originate from a different location to many of
the other price sets (focused on Edinburgh, Fife, and the central belt); indeed, Aberdeen
statute prices are low compared to the cost of ale as recorded in the Crown accounts.
Furthermore, as Gemmill and Mayhew suggest, ‘widespread infringement of the assize
does suggest that the prices set may often have been unrealistic’.87 However, these draw-
backs are countermanded by the fact that this is an exceptionally complete and consistent
record of prices. The fact that ale prices rose at a much lower rate than barley prices may,
as in England, be attributable to ‘changes in manufacturing methods’.88
While wine was the elite drink of choice, and many purchases were recorded, collecting
price data is problematic.89 Sixteenth-century Scots enjoyed a wide variety of wines, and
apparently dramatic price variations may only reflect variations in product quality or
distance travelled. In addition, wine was sold in a variety of measures, many of which stand
in unclear relationship with each other, so ascertaining the quantity of wine purchased is
often fraught with uncertainty.90 For the purposes of this series, only retail prices (that is,
wine sold in gallons or smaller units) have been included, excluding cheaper wholesale
prices. Although a wholesale series would be of great interest, the uncertain relation of a
commonly used unit of measure, the puncheon, to the tun and the pipe reduces the
potential reliability of such a series.91 Between 1500 and 1542, the retail prices recorded by
Gemmill and Mayhew have been employed; the Exchequer Rolls and Treasurer’s Accounts
83
Gibson and Smout, Prices, food and wages, p. 84; Gemmill and Mayhew, Changing values, pp. 170–7, 209–14.
84
Donaldson, ed., Accounts, p. 185.
85
86
Gemmill and Mayhew, Changing values, p. 51; Gibson and Smout, Prices, food and wages, pp. 60–1.
87
88
Nef, ‘Prices and industrial capitalism’, p. 168.
89
Wine purchases were usually recorded in the household books, thus for periods where these are not extant
data are sparse.
90
Gemmill and Mayhew, Changing values, pp. 215–30, 408.
91
This remains unresolved in the major work on the subject which focuses upon the pint, boll, and firlot as
units of capacity: Connor and Simpson, Weights and measures, pp. 190–3, 265–97, 512–23, 753, 760–2.
provide continuity of data following 1542.92 These are supplemented by retail prices
quoted in Arran’s household accounts (a further point of continuity in view of the data
gathered from the printed household books of James V by Gemmill and Mayhew), and
statute prices, including the Edinburgh statutes gathered by Gibson and Smout and Privy
Council and parliamentary statutes.93 All wines, with the exception of the very expensive
‘Seck’, have been included. For 1546–8 and 1550, statute prices survive alongside those of
Arran’s household; the statutes were, on average, set at 78 per cent of the average cost of
wine bought by the royal household. Arran’s prices have been reduced accordingly.
Fuel
In terms of the primary fuel used to heat homes, among the elite the shift from wood to
coal was ongoing during the sixteenth century, with one study of consumption habits in
London identifying the period of transition as the late sixteenth to early seventeenth
century; the poor, meanwhile, would have continued to gather peat.94 Gibson and Smout
did not identify a detailed data series on coal; thus, as the combined percentage of
expenditure on fuel was so small, candle represents all fuel expenditure. Prior to 1542
Gemmill and Mayhew’s candle prices (drawn from the Crown and Aberdeen burgh
accounts) have been used, supplemented by Edinburgh and Stirling burgh prices gathered
by Gibson and Smout.95 From 1542 to 1548 a yearly average has been taken from Arran’s
household and Treasurer’s Accounts; from 1548 onwards Gibson and Smout’s statute data
from Aberdeen, Edinburgh, Glasgow, and Stirling was the source.96 The Aberdeen statute
price was 0.84 of the value of Arran’s average price paid that year; prices from his accounts
have been reduced accordingly.
Fabric
As Gemmill and Mayhew noted, the subject of cloth in pre-modern Scotland is an area in
which further research is badly needed.97 Many of the problems encountered in their study
of prices in the Treasurer’s Accounts for the period prior to 1542 are also evident in the
additional data gathered for this research: Gibson and Smout’s study did not include data
on fabric, and accordingly, for the post-1542 period all prices have been drawn from the
Treasurer’s Accounts.
Velvet provided the strongest and most consistent data, attesting to its importance in
dress. The value of fabric, and the importance of gifts of clothing to servants, is indicated
in the fact that the price of an eln of black velvet regularly exceeded the average monthly
wages of a gunner. Furthermore, in addition to the plentiful data, the colour of the velvet
under purchase was often specified; accordingly, the commodity being compared (black
velvet, measured by the eln) is exceptionally consistent across the century. The annual
averages created by Gemmill and Mayhew have been used for velvet and canvas each year
until 1542; thereafter, an average annual price has been constructed from the purchase
prices recorded in the Treasurer’s Accounts.98 While generally the data appertaining to
92
Gemmill and Mayhew, Changing values, pp. 228–30; Stuart et al., eds., ER, vols. 18–21; Dickson et al., eds.,
Accounts,, vols. 8–13; NRS, Treasurer’s Accounts, 1580–5, E21/62–4.
93
NRS, Libri Domicilii, E31/9–13; NRS, Libri Emptorum, E32/8–12; Gibson and Smout, Prices, food and
wages, p. 63; Burton et al., eds., Register of the Privy Council of Scotland, vols. 1–3; www.rps.ac.uk.
94
95
Gemmill and Mayhew, Changing values, pp. 296–8; Gibson and Smout, Prices, food and wages, p. 217.
96
NRS, Household Accounts, E32/9–E32/12; Dickson, Accounts, vols. 8-9; Gibson and Smout, Prices, food and
wages, pp. 217–19.
97
98
Ibid., pp. 354–5; Dickson, Accounts, vols. 1–13; NRS, Treasurer’s Accounts, 1580–5, E21/62–4.
190 AMY BLAKEWAY
velvet are strong, obtaining data on velvet during the regency of Marie de Guise (1554–9)
was unusually problematic since there are substantial gaps in de Guise’s extant accounts;
furthermore, during this period the Treasurer was not responsible for providing fabric to
the Regent’s household.
The dramatic change to the number of purchases of velvet recorded in the Treasurer’s
Accounts in the 1550s is mirrored in the availability of data appertaining to other types of
fabric, including, at the cheap end of the market, canvas. Employed in a wide range of uses,
canvas was available in a range of qualities and a concomitant substantial variation in prices
is evident; mean averages have been created from across the price range.99 From 1565,
however, a new, more expensive, type of canvas, consistently described as ‘Lyon canvas’,
was regularly purchased; these prices have been excluded. Comparable types of price
variation are visible in records of purchases of Holland cloth, often used as a cheaper
substitute for French materials for shirts or bed sheets; similarly, prices for goods clearly
falling at the ‘luxury’ end of the range have been excluded. Like Holland cloth, satin is
identifiable in the Treasurer’s Accounts throughout the period.
Iron
Iron was widely used in building and making objects such as tools and weapons. Never-
theless, since iron was most frequently purchased fashioned into objects for immediate use,
data for iron as a ‘raw’ commodity by the stone are weak. Furthermore, several unusual
points require explanation. Most notable is the sharp jump in price between 1542 and
1543, a change probably attributable to increased purchasing of the more expensive
Spanish iron and a rejection of the cheaper French alternative. In the late 1540s purchases
of the still more expensive ‘Danskyn iron’ (that is, from Gdańsk) caused a further jump.
Since sharp jumps in the cost of iron were also visible in the late fifteenth century, it
appears that iron prices were especially volatile.100 In this context, gaps of up to five
consecutive years in the data are particularly frustrating. Gibson and Smout gathered no
data for iron; therefore the period from 1542 onwards includes data from the Treasurer’s
and Masters of Works Accounts; Gemmill and Mayhew similarly relied on the Treasurer’s
Accounts, augmented by occasional Aberdeen burgh prices.101
Services
A key difference between an elite household’s purchases and a more humble establishment
was the reward of services in various combinations of cash, livery, and food. Both gunners
and wrights were skilled and much-needed workers. Generally, wrights were paid similarly
to masons, so their wages could stand proxy for this group to a reasonable degree in
cross-country comparisons.102 Wage data drawn from the Masters of Works and Edinburgh
Town Council Accounts by Gibson and Smout covering 1529–85 are supplemented by
payments in the Treasurer’s Accounts.103
99
For canvas and its pricing, see Gemmill and Mayhew, Changing values, pp. 331–7.
100
Ibid., pp. 338–44.
101
Dickson et al., eds., Accounts, vols. 8–13; NRS, Treasurer’s Accounts, 1580–5, E21/62–4; Paton, ed.,
Accounts of the Masters of Works; Gemmill and Mayhew, Changing values, pp. 342–4.
102
103
Paton, ed., Accounts of the Masters of Works; Gibson and Smout, Prices, food and wages; Dickson et al., eds.,
Accounts, vols. 1–13; NRS, Treasurer’s Accounts, 1580–5, E21/62–4.

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Economic History Review, 68, 1 (2015), pp. 167–190

The sixteenth-century price rise: new

D uring the sixteenth century Europe experienced an unprecedented price rise,

*Author Affiliation: Homerton College, University of Cambridge.

expenditure. This real-terms diminution of Crown resources and concomitant

Animal protein (meat, dairy, and fish) 42.5% Mart = 21.25%

Source: Adapted from Phelps-Brown and Hopkins, ‘Seven centuries’, p. 297.

rather allows a range of circumstances to be reflected in a hypothetically ‘average’

assigning a category to purchases of individual commodities which were grouped

Table 3. The weighting of the elite basket

Meat, fish, and dairy produce 19 Mart 9.5

Sources: Based on tab. 2 and Blakeway, Regency in sixteenth-century Scotland, ch. 3.

items. Messengers, for instance, were an important component of Crown expendi-

Elite index Non-elite index PBH

Figure 1. Scottish indexes compared to Phelps Brown and Hopkins

1500 12 73 288 465 21 79 89 139 48 161 8 15 43 25 102 373

© Economic History Society 2014

1525 18 84 424 719 47 73 116 234 50 318 14 10 75 57 148 822

Economic History Review, 68, 1 (2015)

© Economic History Society 2014

Economic History Review, 68, 1 (2015)

Table 5. The Scottish price indexes, 1500–85

1500 100.0 100.0 1543 261.8 187.6

Source: Based on data in tabs. 1, 3, and 4.

Gunner Wright Mason PBH

Figure 2. Weekly real wages index

© Economic History Society 2014

Note: Based on data in tab. 4.

Economic History Review, 68, 1 (2015)

Date submitted 18 January 2013

© Economic History Society 2014 Economic History Review, 68, 1 (2015)

APPENDIX I: THE CREATION OF THE SCOTTISH PRICE

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