NCEA Level 3 - 3.

14 Probability Distributions
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Level 3 – AS91586 – 4 Credits – External
Probability Distributions
Written by J Wills – MathsNZ – [email protected]

Achievement Achievement with Merit Achievement with

Excellence
Apply probability Apply probability Apply probability
distributions in solving distributions, using relational distributions, using extended
problems thinking, in solving problems. abstract thinking, in solving
problems.

Contents
Part 1: Difference between Discrete and Continuous Distributions............................................3
Part 2: The Normal Distribution.................................................................................................. 5
Part 2.1: Up To........................................................................................................................ 6
Part 2.2: More Than................................................................................................................. 9
Part 2.3: Between.................................................................................................................. 11
Part 2.4: Inverse Normal....................................................................................................... 13
Part 2.5: Finding the Mean and Standard Deviation..............................................................16
Part 2.6: Assumptions........................................................................................................... 19
Part 2.7: Mixed Questions..................................................................................................... 20
Part 3: The Continuous Uniform Distribution............................................................................ 23
Part 3.1: Finding the Probability............................................................................................ 24
Part 3.2: Mean and Standard Deviation................................................................................ 27
Part 3.3: Assumptions........................................................................................................... 29
Part 3.4: Mixed Questions..................................................................................................... 30
Part 4: The Triangular Distribution........................................................................................... 32
Part 4.1: The Left Slope......................................................................................................... 33
Part 4.2: The Right Slope...................................................................................................... 35
Part 4.3: Combining the Two................................................................................................. 37
Part 4.4: Mean and Standard Deviation................................................................................ 40
Part 4.5: Assumptions........................................................................................................... 42
Part 4.6: Mixed Questions..................................................................................................... 43
Part 5: Continuity Corrections.................................................................................................. 45
Part 5.1: Uniform Distributions.............................................................................................. 46
Part 5.2: Triangular Distribution............................................................................................ 48
Part 5.3: Normal Distribution................................................................................................. 50
Part 5.4: Mixed Questions..................................................................................................... 52
Part 6: Discrete Random Variables........................................................................................... 54
Part 6.1: Finding the Mean.................................................................................................... 55
Part 6.2: Finding the Standard Deviation.............................................................................. 57
Part 6.3: Linear Combinations............................................................................................... 59
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Part 6.4: Mixed Questions..................................................................................................... 62
Part 7: The Binomial Distribution.............................................................................................. 64
Part 7.1: Probability it is Exactly........................................................................................... 65
Part 7.2: Probability it is Less Than or Up To.........................................................................67
Part 7.3: Probability it is More Than...................................................................................... 69
Part 7.4: Mean and Standard Deviation................................................................................ 71
Part 7.5: Working Backwards and Using the Formula............................................................73
Part 7.6: Assumptions........................................................................................................... 75
Part 7.7: Mixed Questions..................................................................................................... 76
Part 8: The Poisson Distribution............................................................................................... 78
Part 8.1: Probability it is Exactly........................................................................................... 79
Part 8.2: Probability it is Less Than or Up To.........................................................................81
Part 8.3: Probability it is More Than...................................................................................... 83
Part 8.4: Mean and Standard Deviation................................................................................ 85
Part 8.5: Working Backwards................................................................................................ 87
Part 8.6: Assumptions........................................................................................................... 89
Part 8.7: Mixed Questions..................................................................................................... 90
Part 9: Looking at Graphs......................................................................................................... 92
Part 9.1: Calculate the Mean for a Binomial or Poisson Distribution......................................94
Part 9.2: Mixed Questions..................................................................................................... 95
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Part 1: Difference between Discrete and Continuous

Distributions

Distributions fall into two categories, discrete and continuous. Discrete distributions are where
we can put items into groups, e.g.: there is 1 white ball, 2 white balls, 3 white balls, etc.
Continuous distributions are when numbers can fall anywhere along a scale, e.g.: the boy
could be 153.45cm tall or 185.23cm tall or anywhere in between.

Of the distributions that we look at for 3.14 the Normal, Uniform and Triangular
distributions are all continuous and the Binomial and Poisson are discrete distributions. We
also occasionally deal with Discrete Random Variables which are also obviously discrete.

Exercise 1
For each of the situations below state if a discrete or continuous distribution would be best to
model what is going on.
1. The number of white balls selected from 8. The weight of apples
a bag 9. The number of people ahead of you in a
2. The weight of students queue when you arrive at the bank
3. The heights of kiwi birds 10.The number of students in a class
4. How far students can jump 11.The length of bridges around New
5. How tall buildings in a city are Zealand
6. The number of heads when flipping a 12.The number of traffic lights in a city
coin 5 times in a row 13.The number of phone calls received per
7. The circumference of oranges hour in a call centre
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Exercise 1 Answers
1. Discrete 5. Continuous 9. Discrete 13.Discrete
2. Continuous 6. Discrete 10.Discrete
3. Continuous 7. Continuous 11.Continuous
4. Continuous 8. Continuous 12.Discrete
14.
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Part 2: The Normal Distribution

In Year 12 maths you should have looked at the normal distribution as part of probability, so
we will start with this. The Normal distribution is a continuous distribution that follows what
we call a ‘bell curve’ because the ‘probability density function’ (a fancy word for the equation
that draws the graph, pdf for short) looks like a bell. The equation and the graph for the pdf
are shown below.
2
−( x−μ )
1 2σ
2

f ( x , μ ,σ )= e
σ √2 π

Although this formula looks really nasty, we fortunately we do not need to worry about using
it as we can use our graphics calculators (or distribution tables) instead.

This distribution has two parameters that apply to it (parameters are numbers that tell
equation about what it is calculating). The first one is the mean of the population and the
second is the standard deviation. The mean is the average of all of whatever we are looking at
and is represented by the µ symbol, and the standard deviation is a measure of how spread
out it is and is represented by the σ symbol.

This also give us a really cool rule called the

‘68–95–99.7’ rule… 68% of the data is within
1 standard deviation of the mean, 95% is
within 2 standard deviations, and 99.7% is
within 3 standard deviations as shown in the
graphic on the right.
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Part 2.1: Up To
The first type of question that we are going to
look at is when we want to know the
probability that something is less than (or up
to) a certain number. We are going to step
through an example together using both the
graphics calculator and the standard normal
tables. The first thing we do is draw a diagram
if what we want like the one shown below.

On the graphics calculator you need to go to

STAT (2) and then go to DIST (F5) and
for this section we want the NORM
(F1). This will give us three options:
Npd Ncd and InvN. For all the questions where
we are trying to find a probability for normal
distributions I find it easiest just to use the Ncd
(F2). So now… our question.

Example
The weights of Great Spotted kiwi birds are
normally distributed with a mean of 2.8 kg and
a standard deviation of 0.58 kg. Calculate the
probability that a randomly selected kiwi
weighs less than 2 kg.

Answer (Graphics Calculator) Answer (Tables)

As we are after everything less than 2kg, The first thing we need to do is work out
our Lower (or minimum amount) is the the Z value. We do this using the formula
biggest negative number we can think of… X−μ
so -99999999999 (the negative button and
Z= .
σ
then a whole bunch of nines). The Upper (or With our data X=2, µ=2.8, σ=0.58… when
maximum amount) is 2, the σ (or standard we put this into our formula we get:
deviation) is 0.58 and the µ (or mean) is 2−2.8
2.8. Z= =−1.379
0.58
What we do is we pretend this value is
positive and look it up in the table above…
we look up the 1.3 in the left column, and
then go along to the 7 column giving
us .4147… we then look up the 9 in the
Pressing the execute button gives us the right group of columns, which is 14. We
following screen: need to add this onto the last two digits,
giving us 0.4147 + 0.0014 which is
0.4161… now what does this number
mean?
You can ignore the z:Low and z:Up. This number is the area under the graph
So we can see the probability is 0.0839 between half way and our point… given
(3sf) which is our answer. that our point is less than the mean, we
need to subtract this off 0.5 to find our
answer.
Hint: always draw the distribution
Therefore: graph… it
0.5 - 0.4161 = 0.0839 which is
helps. the same as the answer from the graphics
calculator.
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Exercise 2.1
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Exercise 2.1
1. The North Island Brown kiwi birds’ 6. The weight of a full grown elephant is
weights are normally distributed with a normally distributed with a mean of
mean weight of 2.5 kg and a standard 5,200 kg and a standard deviation of
deviation of 0.4 kg. What is the 800 kg. What is the probability that the
probability that a North Island Brown elephant weighs less than 5,000 kg?
kiwi will weigh less than 2.7 kg? 7. The length of the leaves on a tree is
2. The length of a pounamu necklaces that normally distributed with a mean of
have been hand crafted are normally 10.4 cm and a standard deviation of 2.1
distributed with a mean of 5.3 cm and a cm. What is the probability that a leaf is
standard deviation of 1.1 cm. What is less than 13 cm?
the probability that the pounamu is less 8. The amount of fizzy drink in a bottle is
than 4.1 cm? normally distributed with a mean of 1.53
3. The height of women’s high heels are L with a standard deviation of 0.02 L.
normally distributed with a mean of 7.5 What is the probability that the bottle
cm and a standard deviation of 2.1 cm. has less than 1.50 L of drink in it?
What is the probability that the heel is
less that 2.9 cm?
4. The amount of milk that a cow produces
each day is normally distributed with a
mean of 30.3 L and a standard deviation
of 3.6 L. What is the probability that the
cow produces less than 30 L of milk?
5. The price of bananas in the supermarket
is normally distributed with a mean of
$2.10 and a standard deviation of $0.40.
What is the probability that bananas
cost less than $3.10?
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Exercise 2.1 Answers
1. 0.691 (3sf) 3. 0.0142 (3sf) 5. 0.994 (3sf) 7. 0.892 (3sf)
2. 0.138 (3sf) 4. 0.467 (3sf) 6. 0.401 (3sf) 8. 0.0668 (3sf)
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Part 2.2: More Than
In the first section we focused just on finding the
probability that something was up to a certain amount.
This time we will be looking at the probability that it is
more than a certain amount. For these the diagram of
what we are trying to find out looks like this one on the
right. The method that we use is almost identical to the
method we used in the last lot of questions… so an example.

Example
The weights of Great Spotted kiwi birds are normally distributed with a mean of 2.8 kg and a
standard deviation of 0.58 kg. Calculate the probability that a randomly selected kiwi weighs
more than 2.4 kg.

Answer (Graphics Calculator) Answer (Tables)

As we are after everything more than Again, the first thing we need to do is
2.4kg, our Lower (or minimum amount) is 2.4−2.8
2.4. The Upper (or maximum amount) is calculate the Z value. Z= =−0.690
0.58
999999999999 (the nine key pushed a lot (3dp)
of times), the σ (or standard deviation) is Again we pretend that the number is
0.58 and the µ (or mean) is 2.8. positive and look it up in the table.
0.2549… now this is the difference from the
middle to the point we want. So we add this
onto 0.5 to give us 0.7549 which rounds to
0.755 (3sf) the same as with the graphics
calculator.
Pressing the execute button tells us that The sort of diagram that you might use in
the probability is 0.755 (3sf) which is our this example is shown below.
answer 

Exercise 2.2
1. The length of phone calls to a call centre 5. The size of a hot water bottles are
are normally distributed with a mean of normally distributed with a mean of 1.1
2.4 minutes and a standard deviation of L with a standard deviation of 0.2 L.
0.8 minutes. What is the probability that What is the probability that the hot
a call lasts more than 4 minutes? water bottle can hold more than 0.8 L?
2. The cost of a kilo of porter house steak 6. The average weight of a new born baby
is normally distributed with a mean of is 3.4 kg with a standard deviation of
$25 with a standard deviation of $4.20. 0.51 kg. What is the probability that a
What is the probability that the steak new born baby weighs more than 4 kg?
costs more than $32 a kilo? 7. The flight time from Auckland to
3. The average size of a 3 bedroom house Wellington is normally distributed with a
is normally distributed with a mean of mean of 47 minutes and a standard
180 m2 and a standard deviation of 50 deviation of 5 minutes. What is the
m2. What is the probability that a 3 probability that the flight lasts for more
bedroom house is more than 200 m2? than an hour?
4. The weight lost by a person on a 8. The distance travelled by a commuter in
particular diet has a mean of 3.2 kg over Auckland is normally distributed with a
6 months with a standard deviation of 2 mean of 30 km and a standard deviation
kg. What is the probability that someone of 10 km. What is the probability that a
loses over 5 kg? commuter travels more than 43 km
each day?
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Exercise 2.2 Answers

1. 0.0228 (3sf) 3. 0.345 (3sf) 5. 0.933 (3sf) 7. 0.00466 (3sf)
2. 0.0478 (3sf) 4. 0.184 (3sf) 6. 0.120 (3sf) 8. 0.0968 (3sf)
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Part 2.3: Between
The next type of questions we will look at are when we are calculating the probability the
value is between two values… this is super easy with the graphics calculator… we just put
these numbers into the lower and the upper, with the tables we need to work out two
probabilities and then add or subtract them.

Example
The time taken to brew a coffee is normally distributed with a mean of 4 minutes and a
standard deviation of 0.4 minutes. What is the probability it takes between 3 and 4.5 minutes
to brew the coffee?

Answer (Graphics Calculator) Answer (Tables)

You just enter the lower and the upper The first thing we need to do is draw a
number in like this: diagram like this:

As you can see we need to work out the

probability between the lower and the
median (3 and 4), and between the median
and the upper (4 and 4.5).
First up the lower and the median
And you find the answer is 0.888 (3sf).
3−4
Z= =−2.5 giving us p = 0.4938
0.4
And the median and the upper
4.5−4
Z= =1.25 giving us p = 0.3944
0.4
This gives us a total probability of
0.4938 + 0.3944 = 0.888 (3sf)

Exercise 2.3
1. The gestation period for humans is 5. The time taken to sell a house is
normally distributed with a mean of 40 normally distributed with a mean of 34
weeks and a standard deviation of 1.3 days and a standard deviation of 10
weeks. What is the probability that the days. What is the probability that it
gestation period is between 38 and 41 takes between 20 and 30 days to sell a
weeks? house?
2. The height of chicken eggs are normally 6. The weight of a forward rugby player is
distributed with a mean of 57 mm and a normally distributed with a mean of 111
standard deviation of 4 mm. What is the kg and a standard deviation of 8 kg.
probability that the chicken egg is What is the probability that a forward
between 52 mm and 59 mm tall? rugby player weighs between 120 and
3. The fuel efficiency of new cars in 2008 130 kg?
was normally distributed with a mean of 7. The time spent by a person in the
8.9 L/100 km and a standard deviation shower is normally distributed with a
of 2.1 L/100 km. What is the probability mean of 8 minutes and a standard
that the fuel efficiency of a new car was deviation of 3 minutes. What is the
between 5 L/100 km and 7 L/100 km? probability that someone spends
4. The average stride length of a marathon between 4 and 6 minutes in the shower?
runner is normally distributed with a 8. The length of cats tails are normally
mean of 152 cm and a standard distributed with a mean of 30 cm and a
deviation of 20.5 cm. What is the standard deviation of 3 cm. what is the
probability that the stride length will be probability that a cat’s tail is between
between 150 and 160 cm? 28 cm and 32 cm?
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Exercise 2.3 Answers
1. 0.717 (3sf) 3. 0.151 (3sf) 5. 0.264 (3sf) 7. 0.161 (3sf)
2. 0.106 (3sf) 4. 0.191 (3sf) 6. 0.122 (3sf) 8. 0.495 (3sf)
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Part 2.4: Inverse Normal
The next thing we need to do is the reverse of what we have done so far… when we are given
a probability we need to find the number that it is up to, more than, or between. Let’s look at
an example.

Example Answer (Tables)

The time spent by a teacher at work in the a. The first thing we need to do is draw a
holidays is normally distributed with a diagram.
mean of 20 hours and a standard deviation
of 5 hours.
a. What amount of time do the bottom
20% of teachers work?
b. What amount of time do the top 20% of Now, what we need is the area from the
teachers work? middle to the point that we want. In this
c. What amount of time do the middle 40% case the area is 0.3. If we look up 0.3 in
of teachers work? the body of the table we can see that
the Z score that relates to it is 0.841 as
Answer (Graphics Calculator) 0.2996 + 3 is the closest we can get to
a. This time we go to InvN (Inverse 0.3… now obviously the point that we
Normal) and the tail is to the left (this is want is below the mean so the Z score is
the default on the old calculators). The -0.841. If we put this into our formula we
area is 0.2, the mean is 20 and the X −20
standard deviation is 5. get −0.841=
5
If we solve this we find out that X =
15.8, which in context means the
bottom 20% of teachers work less than
This gives us an answer of 15.8 hours, 15.8 hours in the holidays.
so in context, the bottom 20% of b. Again, the first thing we need to do is
teachers work less than 15.8 hours. draw a diagram.
b. Again we have an inverse normal… if we
look at the graph we either want the top
0.2 or the bottom 0.8.

Again, the area between the mean and

the point we want is 0.3, giving us a Z
score of 0.841, and because this value is
If you have an old calculator you need to more than the mean, we leave it
put in 0.8, otherwise you can say it is a positive this time. If we put this into our
right tail of 0.2. This gives us an answer X −20
of 24.2 which in context means that the formula we get 0.841=
top 20% of teachers work more than 5
24.2 hours in the holidays. If we solve this we find out that X =
c. On the new calculators this is really 24.2, which in context means the top
easy… you just change the tail to 20% of teachers work more than 24.2
central, otherwise if you draw a diagram hours in the holidays.
you see what is going on and work out c. Again, we need to draw a diagram.
the area from the left.

With this we can see that the area

between the mean and the point that
This gives us (17.4, 22.6) which in we want is 0.2 in each direction. If we
context means the middle 40% of look up 0.2 in the tables we find that the
teachers work between 17.4 hours and Z score that it lines up with is 0.524
22.6 hours. (0.1985+14 is as close to 0.2 as we can
get).
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We need to solve this again using the Which gives us 22.6 and 17.4 which in
same method as before, but this time context means the middle 40% of
with both the positive and negative teachers work between 17.4 hours and
numbers. 22.6 hours in the holidays.
X−20 X−20
0.524= and −0.524=
5 5

Exercise 2.4
1. The time spent in freefall in when 5. The temperature in a glass house is
skydiving is normally distributed with a normally distributed with a mean of 30
mean of 20 seconds and a standard °C and a standard deviation of 3 °C.
deviation of 2 seconds. What times do Under what temperature are the coldest
the middle 50% of jumpers freefall for? 5% of days?
2. The width of an A4 piece of paper is 6. The weight of a block of butter is
normally distributed with a mean of 210 normally distributed with a mean of 510
mm and a standard deviation of 0.2 g and a standard deviation of 4 g. Over
mm. Over what size are the top 20% of what weight are the top 4% of blocks of
A4 pieces of paper? butter?
3. The length of a football field is normally 7. The height of rugby players is normally
distributed with a mean of 100 m and a distributed with a mean of 1.86 m and a
standard deviation of 3 m. Under what standard deviation of 0.08 m. Between
size are the smallest 10% of football what weights are the middle 80% of
fields? rugby players?
4. The time taken to boil a kettle is 8. The length of an elephant’s trunk is
normally distributed with a mean of 94 normally distributed with a mean of 175
seconds and a standard deviation of 6 cm and a standard deviation of 10 cm.
seconds. What times do the middle 40% What length are the shortest 10% of
of boils fall between? elephant trunks under?
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Exercise 2.4 Answers
1. Between 18.7 and 21.3 seconds (3sf) 5. Under 25.1 °C (3sf)
2. Over 210.17mm (5sf) 6. Over 517g (3sf)
3. Under 96.2m (3sf) 7. Between 1.76m and 1.96m (3sf)
4. Between 90.9 and 97.1 seconds (3sf) 8. Under 162cm (3sf)
9.
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Part 2.5: Finding the Mean and Standard Deviation
For Merit and Excellence we are sometimes required to find the mean and or the standard
deviation based on other pieces of information that is given to us. To do this we need to use
X−μ
the formula that is given at the top of the formula sheet: Z= . Sometimes this will require
σ
using simultaneous equations, and sometimes it will just involve a straight use of the formula.
Let’s look at some examples…

Example 1 – Finding the standard deviation

The amount of time that it takes to change a nappy is normally distributed with a mean of 40
seconds. The worst 20% of nappies take more than 60 seconds to change. Calculate the
standard deviation for the time it takes to change a nappy.

Answer (Graphics Calculator) Answer (Tables)

The first thing we need to do is calculate The first thing we need to do is work out
the Z-score. To do this we are using a the Z-score using the tables just like we did
‘standard normal’ curve… this means for in the last section. The difference between
the moment the mean is zero and the the mean and the point we are after is 0.3
standard deviation is one, and we know the (draw a diagram to help) which when we
right tail is 0.2. We then get: look it up in the tables we get a Z-score of
X−μ
0.841. We then use the formula Z=
σ
This gives us a Z score of 0.8416. 60−40
X−μ and substitute in the values… 0.841=
We then use the formula Z= and σ
σ and solve it to find that σ = 23.8 minutes.
60−40
substitute in the values… 0.8416=
σ
and solve it to find that σ = 23.8 minutes.

Example 2 – Finding the mean

The marks in a test are normally distributed with a standard deviation of 20%. If the top 10%
of students score more than 90%, what is the mean test mark?

Answer (Graphics Calculator) Answer (Tables)

Again, the first thing we need to do is We again use the same process, finding a
calculate the Z-score, we do this using the z-score of 1.282. We put this into the
same process as before… Tail: right, Area: X−μ
0.1, σ: 1, μ: 0. formula Z= and substitute in the
σ
This gives us a Z-score of 1.282. 90−μ
We then substitute in the values into our values… 1.282= and solve it to find
20
90−μ that μ = 64.4%.
formula… 1.282= and find that μ =
20
64.4%.

Example 3 – Finding both the mean and the standard deviation.

The heights of Great Spotted Kiwi Birds are normally distributed. The shortest 10% are under
44 cm tall and the tallest 20% are more than 48 cm tall. Calculate the mean and standard
deviation of the kiwi’s heights.

Answer
In this case because we need to find both 44−μ 48−μ
the mean and standard deviation, we need
−1.281= and 0.842=
σ σ
to use simultaneous equations. We find the If we rearrange these to get
Z score for each part and the form the −1.281 σ =44−μ and 0.842 σ =48−μ
following equations. We can then equate them to:
−1.281 σ −44=0.842 σ −48
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Which we can solve to find σ = 1.884 and
then substitute this in to find μ = 46.4.
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Exercise 2.5
1. The time an office worker spends at 5. The lengths of boats in a marina are
work is normally distributed with a mean normally distributed with a mean of 5 m.
of 8 hours. On the busiest 10% of days If the shortest 10% of boats are less
he spends more than 9 hours at work. than 2 m what is the standard deviation
Calculate the standard deviation. for the length of the boats?
2. The time a marathon runner takes to 6. The length of a foot long sub is normally
complete a marathon is normally distributed. If the shortest 10% of subs
distributed with a mean of 4 hours. The are less than 30 cm and the longest
fastest 10% of runners finish in under 20% are more than 31 cm, what is the
2.5 hours. Calculate the standard mean and standard deviation for the
deviation for the time to complete a lengths of foot-long subs?
marathon. 7. The height of 5 year olds are normally
3. The weight of sugar in a bag is normally distributed. The shortest 20% of 5 year
distributed with a standard deviation of olds are under 100 cm and the tallest
4g. If the lightest 5% of bags are less 30% are more than 130cm. Calculate
than 500 g, what is the mean weight of the mean and standard deviation for the
sugar in the bag? height of five year olds.
4. The time spent watching television in a 8. The weight of an unladen swallow is
week is normally distributed with a normally distributed. The lightest 30%
standard deviation of 2 hours. If the top are less than 13.5 g and the heaviest
5% of people spend more than 10 hours 40% are more than 14.5g. Calculate the
watching TV a week, what is the mean mean and standard deviation for the
time spent watching TV a week? weight of unladen swallows.
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Exercise 2.5 Answers
1. 0.780 hours (3sf) 5. 2.34m (3sf)
2. 1.17 hours (3sf) 6. σ = 0.471cm, μ = 30.6cm (3sf)
3. 507g (3sf) 7. σ = 22.0cm, μ = 118cm (3sf)
4. 6.71 hours (3sf) 8. σ = 1.29g, μ = 14.2g (3sf)
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Part 2.6: Assumptions
Occasionally we get asked to compare a graph to a normal distribution, or to fit a normal
distribution to a set of data. In this case there are just a couple of things that we need to be
seeing happening, or assume they are happening.
As we can see from the normal distribution graph on the left it is symmetrical. It is also
unimodal. If the data roughly fits both of these things
then using a normal distribution is good, otherwise you
might want to use a different type of distribution, or at
least comment on the differences, depending on the
question.
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Part 2.7: Mixed Questions
1. The marks in an exam were normally distributed with a mean of 50 and a standard
deviation of 13.
a. What is the probability that a student scored more than 70%?
b. What is the probability that a student scored between 40% and 60%?
c. In order to be in the top 10% of students, what mark did you need to score?
2. The height of desks in a classroom is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2
cm.
a. If the mean is 70 cm, what is the probability that the height is more than 73 cm?
b. If the mean is 68 cm, what is the probability that the height is between 67 cm and
68 cm?
c. If the tallest 20% of desks are more than 72 cm, what was the mean height of the
desks?
3. Bumble bees’ weights are normally distributed with a mean of 220mg and a standard
deviation of 40mg.
a. What is the probability that a bumble bee weighs less than 150 mg?
b. What is the probability that a bumble bee weighs between 180 mg and 200 mg?
c. Over what weight are the heaviest 20% of bumble bees?
4. The time spent on the computer in a certain household is normally distributed.
a. In one house the mean time is 4 hours with a standard deviation of 1 hour. What is
the probability that in a given day the amount of time spent is less than 2.5 hours?
b. In another house the mean time is 8 hours with a standard deviation of 2.4 hours.
What is the probability that in a given day the amount of time spent is between 4
and 5 hours?
c. In another house in the 10% of days when they use the computer least they spend
less than 2 hours on the computer, and the mean amount of time that they spend
on the computer is 3 hours. What is the standard deviation for the amount of time
that they spend on the computer?
5. The gestation period for dogs are normally distributed.
a. For one breed the mean time is 62 days with a standard deviation of 1.2 days. What
is the probability that the gestation period is less than 60 days?
b. For another breed the mean time is 61 days with a standard deviation of 0.8 days.
What is the probability that the gestation period is between 59 and 63 days?
c. Another breed the longest 15% of pregnancies are more than 63 days, and the
shortest 12% of pregnancies are less than 59 days. Calculate the mean and the
standard deviation for this breed.
6. The distance that a jogger runs when doing his training is normally distributed with a mean
of 5.3 km.
a. If the standard deviation is 1.2 km what is the probability that the jogger runs more
than 3.5 km?
b. If the standard deviation is 0.8 km what is the probability that the jogger runs more
than 3.5 km?
c. What is the standard deviation if 10% of the time the jogger runs more than 8 km?
7. The gaps between the draws in a particular brand (Alpha) of desk where a chair is
designed to go are normally distributed with a mean of 46 cm and a standard deviation of
1 cm. The gaps between the draws in another brand (Beta) are also normally distributed
with a mean of 47 cm. The Beta brand desks are expected to have a gap under 45 cm 13%
of the time.
a. How often would you expect Alpha brand desks to have a gap under 45 cm?
b. How often would you expect Alpha brand desks to have a gap between 47 cm and
48 cm?
c. Explain how the standard deviation for the gap between the draws for Beta brand
desks compares with the Alpha brand desks.
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8. The popliteal length (the length from the ground to the back of the knee when standing)
was recorded for a large number of boys. The mean for this data was 50.0 cm and the
standard deviation was 2.9 cm. This is shown in the histogram below.

Explain whether a normal distribution would be an appropriate model for the distribution of
popliteal length for boys. As part of your explanation, describe the features of the
distribution and include at least one calculation.
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Part 2.7 Answers
1a. 0.0620 (3sf) 4a. 0.0668 (3sf) 7a. 0.159 (3sf)
1b. 0.558 (3sf) 4b. 0.0579 (3sf) 7b. 0.134 (3sf)
1c. 66.7% (3sf) 4c. 0.780 (3sf) 7c. σ for Beta = 1.78cm
(3sf). This means there will
2a. 0.0668 (3sf) 5a. 0.0478 (3sf) be more variation in the
2b. 0.191 (3sf) 5b. 0.988 (3sf) gaps for Beta desks than
2c. 70.3 cm (3sf) 5c. σ = 1.81 days, μ = for alpha desks.
61.1 days (3sf)
3a. 0.0401 (3sf)
3b. 0.150 (3sf) 6a. 0.933 (3sf)
3c. 254mg (3sf) 6b. 0.988 (3sf)
6c. 2.11 (3sf)

8. Normal distributions should be continuous, bell-shaped, unimodal and symmetrical. Looking

at this data we can see the data is reasonably symmetrical, with just a couple of smaller
points off to the left, which may be due to those boys being younger, and it is reasonably bell-
shaped, with the highest bar being between 49 and 50, where the mean is 50, and very
clearly unimodal. If it was normally distributed then the probability of a popliteal length being
over 52 cm would be 0.245 (3sf) whereas from the histogram we can see it is
0.09+0.1+0.06+0.04+0.02 = 0.31, which is a little bit higher, than the 0.245, but you would
expect some variation. Therefore a normal distribution is appropriate for the popliteal length
for boys.
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Part 3: The Continuous Uniform Distribution

The uniform distribution is another continuous distribution, and is sometimes referred to as

the rectangular distribution as it forms a rectangular shape when you draw it out. The
probability density function (or pdf for short) is shown below, both as a formula and a
diagram. The minimum is ‘a’ and the maximum is ‘b’.

{
1
, a< x< b 1
f ( x )= b−a
¿ 0 , elsewhere b−a
a b
Like with the normal distribution the area under the ‘curve’ is the probability, so the full
rectangle will always have an area of one, as probabilities always add to one. We normally
use the uniform distribution when we are only given two pieces of information, the minimum
and the maximum.
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Part 3.1: Finding the Probability
The first thing we need to know how to do is find the probability from a uniform distribution.
To do this we find the area of the relevant part of the rectangle. Let’s have a look at an
example.

Example
The time taken for a component to wear out has a uniform distribution with a minimum of 5
days and a maximum of 15 days.
a. What is the probability that it wears out in less than 7 days?
b. What is the probability that it lasts longer than 10 days?
c. What is the probability that it wears out between 5 and 8 days?

Answer
The first thing that we must do is draw the probability function, as this makes life much
easier. Shading in the area that you are trying to find is also helpful.

1
10
5 157 days is the probability that it is between 5 days and
a. The probability that it is less than
7 days. Now we know that the area of a rectangle, and thus the probability, is base ×
1
height, so it is 2 × =0.2.
10
b. The probability that it takes more than 10 days to fail is the probability it is between 10
1
and 15 days, this means the area, and therefore the probability, is 5 × =0.5 .
10
1
c. The difference between these two days is 3, so the probability is 3 × =0.3 .
10

Exercise 3.1
1. The time taken to tie a knot has a 4. A farmer knows that the heaviest his
uniform distribution. The minimum time cows get is 790 kg and the lightest is
is 4 seconds and the maximum time is 8 660 kg. What is the probability the cow
seconds. What is the probability that it: weighs:
a. Takes less than 5 seconds to tie? a. More than 750 kg?
b. More than 6 seconds to tie? b. Between 700 kg and 750 kg?
c. Between 4.5 and 6.4 seconds to c. More than 300 kg?
tie? d. Less than 200 kg?
d. Longer than 10 seconds to tie? 5. The amount spend on my phone bill a
2. The amount of grain that spills from a month has a minimum of $80.00 and a
bag has a uniform distribution with a maximum of $93.00. Find the probability
minimum of 2 g and a maximum of 12 the phone bill is:
g. What is the probability that: a. Between $80.50 and $90.50?
a. More than 10 g spill out? b. Less than $82.50?
b. Less than 2 g spill out? c. Between $92.00 and $94.00?
c. Between 3 and 5 grams spill out? 6. The maximum length of a pen is 12.52
d. Less than 2.5 g spill out? cm and the minimum length is 12.41
3. The length of pieces of wood have a cm. Using a normal distribution find the
uniform distribution with a minimum of probability the pen is:
3 m and a maximum of 3.2 m. What is a. More than 12.49 cm?
the probability the wood is: b. Less than 12.43 cm?
a. More than 3.18 m long? c. Between 12.42 and 12.45 cm?
b. Less than 3.04 m long? d. More than 12.6 cm?
c. Between 3.02 m and 3.05 m long?
d. Between 3.21 m and 3.3 m long?
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7. The maximum distance a rugby player 8. The minimum time I spend each day
can normally kick a ball is 49 m and the reading is 10 minutes and the maximum
minimum is 10 m. What is the is 3 hours. What is the probability that I
probability the kick is: spend:
a. More than 10 m? a. Between 2 and 2.5 hours reading?
b. Less than 40 m? b. More than 1 hour reading?
c. Between 30 m and 40 m? c. Less than 40 minutes reading?
d. More than 36 m?
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Exercise 3.1 Answers
1a. 0.25 3a. 0.1 5a. 0.769 (3sf) 7b. 0.769 (3sf)
1b. 0.5 3b. 0.2 5b. 0.192 (3sf) 7c. 0.256 (3sf)
1c. 0.475 3c. 0.15 5c. 0.0769 (3sf) 7d. 0.333 (3sf)
1d. 0 3d. 0 6a. 0.273 (3sf) 8a. 0.176 (3sf)
2a. 0.2 4a. 0.308 (3sf) 6b. 0.182 (3sf) 8b. 0.706 (3sf)
2b. 0 4b. 0.385 (3sf) 6c. 0.273 (3sf) 8c. 0.176 (3sf)
2c. 0.2 4c. 1 6d. 0
2d. 0.05 4d. 0 7a. 1
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Part 3.2: Mean and Standard Deviation
Occasionally we need to find the mean and the standard deviation for a continuous uniform
distribution. The formulae for this are not given to you, but are pretty easy to remember. They
are:

1 1
Mean = ( a+ b ) Standard deviation = (b−a)
2 √12
Example
The time taken for a component to wear out has a uniform distribution with a minimum of 5
days and a maximum of 15 days. Calculate the mean and the standard deviation.

Answer
1 1 1 1
Mean = ( a+ b )= ( 5+15 )=10 and standard deviation = ( b−a )= ( 15−5 )=2.89(3 sf )
2 2 √12 √ 12
Exercise 3.2
For each of the following, assuming it is uniform, calculate the mean and the standard
deviation.
1. The time taken to tie a knot has a uniform distribution. The minimum time is 4 seconds
and the maximum time is 8 seconds.
2. The amount of grain that spills from a bag has a uniform distribution with a minimum of 2
g and a maximum of 12 g.
3. The length of pieces of wood have a uniform distribution with a minimum of 3 m and a
maximum of 3.2 m.
4. A farmer knows that the heaviest his cows get is 790 kg and the lightest is 660 kg.
5. The amount spend on my phone bill a month has a minimum of $80.00 and a maximum of
$93.00.
6. The maximum length of a pen is 12.52 cm and the minimum length is 12.41 cm.
7. The maximum distance a rugby player can normally kick a ball is 49 m and the minimum is
10 m.
8. The minimum time I spend each day reading is 10 minutes and the maximum is 3 hours.
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Exercise 3.2 Answers
1. σ = 1.15 s, μ = 6 s (3sf) 5. σ = $3.75, μ = $86.50 (3sf)
2. σ = 2.89 g, μ = 7 g (3sf) 6. σ = 0.0318 cm, μ = 12.5 cm (3sf)
3. σ = 0.0577 m, μ = 3.1 m (3sf) 7. σ = 11.3 m, μ = 29.5 m (3sf)
4. σ = 37.5 kg, μ = 725 kg (3sf) 8. σ = 49.1 min, μ = 95 min
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Part 3.3: Assumptions
Occasionally we get asked to compare a graph to a uniform distribution, or to fit a uniform
distribution to a set of data. In this case there are just a couple of things that we need to be
seeing happening, or assume they are happening.
If we are only given the minimum and the maximum then a uniform distribution is the best
distribution to use, but it does assume that the probability is equally likely along the entire
width of the distribution, and it is impossible for it to be outside this range.
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Part 3.4: Mixed Questions
1. An ice cream machine is set to pour out ice cream into cups. It is controlled to randomly
cut the flow of ice cream between 200 g and 206 g. Find the probability it pours out:
a. Less than 201 g.
b. Between 202 g and 205 g.
c. More than 205.5 g.
2. The maximum weight that can be sent using a standard parcel post bag is 3kg. Assuming
the weight of the bags has a uniform distribution:
a. Justify why a uniform distribution is best to use in this situation and state the value
of the parameters (a and b).
b. What is the probability it weighs more than 2.9 kg?
c. What is the probability it weighs less than 1.8 kg?
3. The amount of time it takes for a grenade to go off it anywhere between 6 seconds and 8
seconds.
a. Justify why a uniform distribution is best to use in this situation and state the value
of the parameters (a and b).
b. What is the probability it takes between 6.2 and 6.6 seconds to go off?
c. What is the probability it goes off in under 5 seconds?
4. The cost to fill my car with petrol is between $40 and $90 depending on how long between
visits to the petrol station.
a. Justify why a uniform distribution is best to use in this situation and state the value
of the parameters (a and b).
b. What is the probability it costs more than $70 to fill my car?
c. Between what two values do the middle 90% of fill ups cost?
5. The northern explorer train departs Auckland at 7:50 am and arrives in Wellington
between 6:20 pm and 6:30 pm.
a. Justify what distribution would be best to model the time taken to travel between
Auckland and Wellington and state the value of the parameters (a and b).
b. What is the probability it takes more than 10 hours and 5 minutes to complete the
journey?
c. What is the probability it takes less than 9 hours to complete the journey?
6. I always drink more than 1 L of water a day and always drink less than 2.1 L.
a. Justify what distribution would be best to model the amount of water I drink in a day
and state the value of the parameters (a and b).
b. What is the probability I drink more than 2 L of water in a day?
c. Between what two values do I drink on the middle 90% of days?
7. The diagonal measurement of a ‘standard’ 40 inch TV is anywhere between 101.2 cm and
102.1 cm.
a. Justify what distribution would be best to model the diagonal measurement of a
‘standard’ 40 inch TV and state the parameters (a and b).
b. What is the probability it is actually more than 40 inches (101.6 cm)?
c. Under what length are the smallest 10% of ‘standard’ 40 inch TVs?
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Part 3.4 Answers
1a. 0.167 (3sf) 5a. We only have two pieces of information,
1b. 0.5 the maximum time (b) is 10 hours and 40
1c. 0.0833 (3sf) minutes, and the minimum time (a) would
be 10 hours and 30 minutes. Therefore a
2a. We only have two pieces of information, uniform distribution is best.
the maximum weight (b) is 3kg, and the 5b. 1
minimum weight (a) would be 0kg. 5c. 0
Therefore a uniform distribution is best.
2b. 0.0333 (3sf) 6a. We only have two pieces of information,
2c. 0.6 the maximum amount (b) is 2.1L, and the
minimum amount (a) would be 1L.
3a. We only have two pieces of information, Therefore a uniform distribution is best.
the maximum time (b) is 8 seconds, and 6b. 0.0909 (3sf)
the minimum time (a) would be 6 seconds. 6c. 1.055 and 2.045L
Therefore a uniform distribution is best.
3b. 0.2 7a. We only have two pieces of information,
3c. 0 the maximum diagonal measurement (b) is
102.1, and the diagonal measurement (a)
4a. We only have two pieces of information, would be 101.2. Therefore a uniform
the maximum amount (b) is $90, and the distribution is best.
minimum amount (a) would be $40. 7b. 0.556 (3sf)
Therefore a uniform distribution is best. 7c. 101.29cm
4b. 0.4
4c. $42.50 and $87.50
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Part 4: The Triangular Distribution

The big advantage of the triangular distribution over the uniform distribution is that it
incorporates a modal value, or outcome that is thought to be most likely to occur. The
triangular distribution is widely used in business and project management, and is often
referred to as ‘three-point estimation’ as it is based off three values, a minimum, a maximum,
and a mode. Because it is based just off the three values it is sometimes also called the ‘lack
of knowledge’ distribution, as it is often used when the cost of collecting data is high, so we
only know these three values, and often in business the modal value is only an estimate.

The pdf for the triangular distribution is shown below, both as a function and a graph. The
minimum value is ‘a’ the maximum value is ‘b’ and the modal value, or the point most likely
to occur, is ‘c’.

{
0 , x <a 2
2 ( x−a ) b−a
a≤ x≤c
(b−a)(c−a)
f ( x )=
2 ( b−x )
c ≤ x ≤b
( b−a ) ( b−c )
0 , x >b a c b
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Part 4.1: The Left Slope
The first thing we need to know, is that just like the uniform distribution, the probability we
are trying to find is always the area under the graph. The formula you will need to know for
the area of a triangle is
1
Area= ×base ×height
2
In the pdf formula above there are 4 parts. The first part ‘0’ means the probability when x is
less than the minimum is just zero. The part we are going to be focusing on in this section is
the part when x is between a and c, this is the left slope and the height is given by the
2 ( x−a )
formula: . To find the area up to a point on this slope you work out the area of the
( b−a ) ( c−a )
triangle up to this point. Let’s look at an example.

Example
A manager knows the total sales of a product are going to be between $1 million and $10
million, and the most likely amount of sales will be $7 million.
a. What is the probability the sales are less than $4 million?
b. What is the probability the sales are more than $4 million?

Answer
The first thing we need to do is draw a a. The area of a triangle is
diagram and fill in the values. 1
a = 1 (minimum)
×base ×height
2
b = 10 (maximum) The base is the difference between 1
c = 7 (most likely) and 4 which is 3
x = 4 (the point we are looking at) Height =
2 ( x−a ) 2 ( 4−1 ) 6 1
= = =
2 ( b−a ) ( c−a ) (10−1)(7−1) 54 9
9 1 1 1
So probability = ×3 × =
2 9 6
b. The probability that it is more than 4
is just 1 minus the probability that it
1 5
1 10 is less than 4 so this is 1− =
4 7 6 6

Exercise 4.1
1. The minimum amount of time spent a. Less than $150,000?
changing a tire is 1 minute and the b. More than $200,000?
maximum is 10 minutes. The most likely c. Less than $300,000?
time is 3 minutes. What is the d. More than $500,000?
probability it takes:
a. Less than 2 minutes to change?
b. More than 2 minutes to change?
c. Less than 1.5 minutes to change?
d. More than 3 minutes to change?
2. The minimum amount a company will
spend on advertising is $100,000 and
the maximum is $800,000. They think
they are most likely to spend $600,000.
What is the probability they spend:
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3. A company knows that the time spent 4. The time the cookies spent in the oven
on a project will be between 300 and is between 20 and 22 minutes with the
800 hours, with the expected time being most likely time being 21.5 minutes.
500 hours. What is the probability the What is the probability they spend:
project takes: a. Less than 21 minutes in the oven?
a. Less than 350 hours? b. More than 20.5 minutes in the
b. More than 500 hours? oven?
c. Less than 450 hours? c. More than 21.5 minutes in the
d. More than 200 hours? oven?
d. Less than 19 minutes in the oven?
Exercise 4.1 Answers
1a. 0.0556 (3sf) 2a. 0.00714 (3sf) 3a. 0.025 4a. 0.333 (3sf)
1b. 0.944 (3sf) 2b. 0.971 (3sf) 3b. 0.6 4b. 0.917 (3sf)
1c. 0.0139 (3sf) 2c. 0.114 (3sf) 3c. 0.225 4c. 0.25
1d. 0.778 (3sf) 2d. 0.543 (3sf) 3d. 1 4d. 0
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Part 4.2: The Right Slope
The right slope is very similar to the left slope, but it is the part coming down on the right
2 ( b−x )
hand side. The formula for this section is . Let’s look at another example:
( b−a ) ( b−c )

Example
A company knows that the cost of a project is going to be between $30,000 and $60,000 with
the most likely cost being $40,000.
a. What is the probability that the project costs more than $50,000?
b. What is the probability that the project costs less than $50,000?

Answer
The first thing we need to do is draw a a. The area of a triangle is
diagram and fill in the values. 1
a = 30,000 (minimum)
×base ×height
2
b = 60,000 (maximum) The base is the difference between
c = 40,000 (most likely) 50,000 and 60,000 which is 10,000
x = 50,000 (the point we are looking at) 2 ( b−x )
Height =
( b−a ) ( b−c )
2 2 ( 60,000−50,000 )
¿
9 ( 60,000−30,000 )( 60,000−40,000 )
20,000 1
¿ =
600,000,000 30,000
So probability =
1 1 1
30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 ×10,000 × =
2 30,000 6
b. The probability that it is less than
$50,000 is just 1 minus the
probability that it is more than
1 5
$50,000 so this is 1− =
6 6

Exercise 4.2
1. The time taken for the kettle to boil is 3. The minimum time it takes to milk a cow
between 1.5 minutes and 3 minutes. is 4 minutes and the maximum time is 6
The most likely time is 2 minutes. What minutes. The most common time is 4.5
is the probability the kettle takes: minutes. What is the probability the
a. More than 2.5 minutes to boil? milking takes:
b. Less than 2.5 minutes to boil? a. More than 5 minutes?
c. More than 2 minutes to boil? b. Less than 5.5 minutes?
d. More than 2 minutes 15 seconds c. More than 4.5 minutes?
to boil? d. Less than 6 minutes?
2. A business knows that it will have a tax 4. The amount of time that employees at a
bill between $3 million and $8 million business spend in meetings a year is
next year, with the most likely tax bill between 300 and 600 hours, with the
being $4 million. What is the probability most common time of 400 hours. What
the tax bill will be: is the probability employees spend:
a. More than $5 million? a. More than 500 hours in meetings?
b. Less than $6 million? b. Less than 550 hours in meetings?
c. More than $7.5 million? c. More than 600 hours in meetings?
d. Less than $7 million? d. Less than 400 hours in meetings?
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Exercise 4.2 Answers
1a. 0.167 (3sf) 2a. 0.45 3a. 0.333 (3sf) 4a. 0.167 (3sf)
1b. 0.833 (3sf) 2b. 0.8 3b. 0.917 (3sf) 4b. 0.958 (3sf)
1c. 0.667 (3sf) 2c. 0. 0125 3c. 0.75 4c. 0
1d. 0.375 2d. 0.95 3d. 1 4d. 0.333 (3sf)
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Part 4.3: Combining the Two
Sometimes the triangles we are using look slightly different (e.g.: a right angle triangle) or the
probability we are after spans both the left and the right slopes of the triangle. Here are some
examples for you to look at:

Example 1
The amount of time it takes to clean a bathroom has a triangular distribution with a minimum
time of 3 minutes and a maximum time of 20 minutes. The most likely amount of time it takes
is 3 minutes.
a. What is the probability it takes more than 15 minutes to clean?
b. What is the probability it takes between 10 and 15 minutes to clean?

Answer 1
The first thing we need to do is draw a a. The area of a triangle is ×base ×height .
2
diagram and fill in the values. The base is the difference between 15
a = 3 (minimum) and 20 which is 5.
b = 20 (maximum) Height =
c = 3 (most likely) 2 ( b−x ) 2 ( 20−15 ) 10
x = 15, and then 10 (the points we are = =
looking at) ( b−a ) ( b−c ) ( 20−3 ) ( 20−3 ) 289
1 10 25
So probability = ×5 × =
We have a right angled triangle and the left 2 289 289
part of the triangle is non-existent… so that b. To find this we find the difference in the
means that we just need to look at the right two triangles… the one from 10 to 20
part of the triangle. and the one we just worked out from 15
to 20.
2 ( b−x ) 2 ( 20−10 )
2 Height = =
( b−a ) ( b−c ) ( 20−3 ) ( 20−3 )
17
20
¿
289
1 20 100
So probability = ×10 × =
2 289 289
3 15 20 Therefore the probability that we are
100 25 75
interested in is − = .
289 289 289

Example 2
The height of a bookcase is somewhere between 1.4 m and 1.9 m with the most common
height being 1.7 m. What is the probability the bookcase is between 1.5 m and 1.8 m tall?

Answer
Again, the first thing we need to do is draw This time we need to look at the two
a diagram and fill in the values. triangles. What is probably easiest is to
a = 1.4 (minimum) work out the probability of the parts we do
b = 1.9 (maximum) not want (marked x and y), and then
c = 1.7 (most likely) subtract them from one.
x = 1.5 and 1.8 (the points we are looking Area x:
at) 2 ( x−a ) 2 ( 1.5−1.4 ) 4
Height = = =
( b−a ) ( c−a ) ( 1.9−1.4 ) ( 1.7−1.4 ) 3
2
9
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1 4 1 1 1
Probability = ×0.1 × = Probability = ×0.1 ×2=
2 3 15 2 10
Area y:
2 ( b−x ) 2 ( 1.9−1.8 ) Therefore the probability the height is
Height = = =2 between 1.5 m and 1.8 m tall is
( b−a ) ( b−c ) ( 1.9−1.4 ) ( 1.9−1.7 )
1 1 5
1− − =
15 10 6
Exercise 4.3
1. The gap between the seats on Trans- 5. The thickness of a magazine is between
Tasman flights is always between 30 cm 3 mm and 6 mm with the most common
and 60 cm with the most common gap thickness being 3 mm. What is the
being 40 cm. What is the probability the probability that the magazine is:
gap is: a. Less than 4 mm thick?
a. More than 50 cm? b. Between 4 mm and 5 mm thick?
b. Between 45 cm and 50 cm? c. More than 5 mm thick?
c. Between 35 cm and 45 cm? 6. My watch is always within 1 minute of
2. The weight of a pillow is known to be the school bell (in either direction), and
somewhere between 100 g and 250 g, it is normally exactly correct. What is
with the most likely weight being 250 g. the probability my watch is:
What is the probability the weight is: a. Less than 15 seconds out?
a. Less than 200 g? b. Less than 30 seconds out?
b. Between 150 and 200 g? 7. The amount spent on weddings in New
3. I know the amount of water in a cup is Zealand is normally between $5,000
between 100 mL and 250 mL, but I think and $60,000 with the most common
there is 220 mL in the glass. What is the amount spent being $28,000. What is
probability the amount of water in the the probability that a couple spends:
cup is: a. Less than $10,000?
a. Less than 150 mL? b. Between $20,000 and $30,000?
b. Between 150 mL and 200 mL? 8. The time taken for a person to get ready
c. Between 200 mL and 240 mL? in the morning is known to be between
4. The weight of a suitcase must be less 10 minutes and 1 hour. Most mornings it
than 32 kg. A suitcase is never less than takes about 20 minutes. What is the
5 kg. The most common weight of probability it takes:
suitcase is 15 kg. What is the probability a. Less than 15 minutes?
the suitcase weights: b. Between 15 minutes and 30
a. Less than 10 kg? minutes?
b. Between 4 kg and 10 kg? c. Between 30 minutes and 45
c. Less than the limit for extra minutes?
baggage charge of 20 kg?
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Exercise 4.3 Answers
1a. 0.167 (3sf) 3b. 0.417 (3sf) 5b. 0.333 (3sf) 8a. 0.05
1b. 0.208 (3sf) 3c. 0.422 (3sf) 5c. 0.111 (3sf) 8b. 0.5
1c. 0.542 (3sf) 4a. 0.0926 (3sf) 6a. 0.4375 8c. 0.3375
2a. 0.444 (3sf) 4b. 0.0926 (3sf) 6b. 0.75
2b. 0.333 (3sf) 4c. 0.686 (3sf) 7a. 0.0198 (3sf)
3a. 0.139 (3sf) 5a. 0.556 (3sf) 7b. 0.311 (3sf)
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Part 4.4: Mean and Standard Deviation
Again, just like with the rectangular distribution, sometimes it is helpful to work out the mean
and the standard deviation for the triangular distribution.
a+b+ c
The formula for the mean is and the formula for the standard deviation is
3

√ a2 +b2 +c 2−ab−ac−bc .
18

Example
The time it takes to fly from the Gold Coast to Auckland is always between 2.5 and 3.5 hours,
with the normal time being 2.7 hours. What is the mean and standard deviation of the trip
time?

Answer
The first thing we need to do is identify a, b and c… a = 2.5, b = 3.5 and c = 2.7. We then just
substitute into the formula.
a+b+ c 2.5+3.5 +2.7
Mean = = =2.9 hours.
3 3
Standard deviation =

√ √
2 2 2 2 2 2
a +b +c −ab−ac−bc 2.5 +3.5 +2.7 −2.5 ×3.5−2.5× 2.7−3.5× 2.7
= =0.216 hours (3sf).
18 18

Exercise 4.4
The following questions require you to The following questions require you to work
calculate the mean and the standard backwards to find either the minimum,
deviation. maximum or most common value.

1. A company knows that the time spent 5. The amount spent on advertising is
on a project will be between 300 and somewhere between $1 million and $10
800 hours, with the expected time being million. The mean amount spent is $6
500 hours. Calculate the mean and the million. Calculate the amount that is
standard deviation for the time spent on most likely to be spent, and then the
a project. standard deviation for the amount being
2. The time the cookies spent in the oven spent.
is between 20 and 22 minutes with the 6. The weight of lollies taken from the pick
most likely time being 21.5 minutes. and mix on average is 600 grams with a
Calculate the mean and the standard maximum of 810 grams. The most likely
deviation of the time the cookies spend amount to be taken is 680 grams. What
in the oven. is the minimum amount that is taken
3. The minimum time it takes to milk a cow and the standard deviation for the
is 4 minutes and the maximum time is 6 amount taken?
minutes. The most common time is 4.5 7. The minimum amount of time taken for
minutes. Calculate the mean and the a project is 24 days, and the most likely
standard deviation of the amount of time is 50 days. The average time is 47
time it takes to milk a cow. days. Calculate the maximum amount of
4. A business knows that it will have a tax time the project is likely to take, and
bill between $3 million and $8 million then the standard deviation of the time
next year, with the most likely tax bill of the project.
being $4 million. Calculate the mean 8. The amount of water in a 100 L tank is
and the standard deviation of the tax always between 0 L and 100 L. What is
bill. the mean amount of water in the tank if
the standard deviation for the amount of
water is 21 L?
Hint: work out the mode first.
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Exercise 4.4 Answers
1. σ = 103 hours, μ = 533 hours (3sf) 5. mode = $7 mil, σ =$1.87 mil (3sf)
2. σ = 0.425 min, μ = 21.2 min (3sf) 6. min = 310 g, σ =106 g (3sf)
3. σ = 0.425 min, μ = 4.83 min (3sf) 7. max = 67 days, σ =8.84 days (3sf)
4. σ = $1.08 mil (3sf), μ = $5 mil 8. mode = 70.9 L (3sf), μ = 57.0 L (3sf)
9.
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Part 4.5: Assumptions
With the triangular distribution there are some assumptions that we make. We use it when we
know 3 values, a minimum, a maximum and a value that is most likely to occur. It is also
really useful when we have a skewed dataset, as a normal distribution is not very good to use
when we are looking at a skewed dataset.
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Part 4.6: Mixed Questions
1. A company expects its sales to be between $20 million and $60 million, but it expects
them to be approximately $30 million.
a. Choose a distribution to model this situation and justify your choice of distribution.
b. Find the probability the sales will be less than $25 million.
c. Find the probability the sales will be between $25 million and $45 million.
2. The length of a rugby practice is always between 40 minutes and 1 hour. Most of the time
the practices are approximately 55 minutes long.
a. Choose a distribution to model this situation and justify your choice of distribution.
b. Find the probability the practice will be less than 50 minutes.
c. Find the probability the practice will be more than 45 minutes.
3. The battery life of an iPad is advertised to be 10 hours, and from my experience it always
lasts more than 8 hours and less than 13 hours, depending on what I am doing.
a. Choose a distribution to model this situation and justify your choice of distribution.
b. What is the probability the battery lasts more than 11 hours?
c. What is the probability the battery lasts between 9 and 11 hours?
4. The number of calories I consume in a day is normally between 1100 and 2500. The
standard adult diet is approximately 2000 calories.
a. Choose a distribution to model this situation and justify your choice of distribution.
b. Find the probability I consume less than 1500 calories.
c. Find the probability I consume more than 2300 calories.
d. What are the mean and the standard deviation for this distribution?
e. In the 10% of days that I eat the most, how many calories do I consume?
5. The cost of chicken breast at the supermarket is always between $10 and $25 a kilo, but is
most often $19.50 a kilo.
a. Choose a distribution to model this situation and justify your choice of distribution.
b. What is the probability the price is more than $21 a kilo?
c. What is the probability the price is between $15 and $18 a kilo?
d. On the cheapest 20% of days, what price is it under?
6. The length of a pencil before it is sharpened for the first time is 19 cm and it becomes
unusable when it is less than 8 cm. The normal length of a pencil is approximately 15 cm.
a. Choose a distribution to model this situation and justify your choice of distribution.
b. A pencil becomes difficult to use if it is less than 10 cm long. What is the probability
a pencil is difficult to use?
c. What range of lengths are the pencils between 90% of the time?
7. Looking at the graph below for a company’s expenditure, choose a distribution to model
this situation and justify your choice of distribution. The expenditure is in thousand dollar
amounts.
Expenditure ($000)
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Part 4.6 Answers
1a. We are given three pieces of 5a. We are given three pieces of
information, the minimum sales (a) is $20 information, the minimum price (a) is $10,
million, and the maximum sales (b) would and the maximum price (b) would be $25,
be $60 million, and the most likely amount and the most likely price (c) is $19.50.
(c) is $30 million. Therefore a triangular Therefore a triangular distribution is best.
distribution is best. 5b. 0.194 (3sf)
1b. 0.0625 5c. 0.274 (3sf)
1c. 0.75 5d. $15.40 (3sf)

2a. We are given three pieces of 6a. We are given three pieces of
information, the minimum length (a) is 40 information, the minimum length (a) is
minutes, and the maximum time (b) would 8cm, and the maximum length (b) would be
be 60 minutes, and the most likely time (c) 19cm, and the most likely length (c) is
is 55 minutes. Therefore a triangular 15cm. Therefore a triangular distribution is
distribution is best. best.
2b. 0.333 (3sf) 6b. 0.0519 (3sf)
2c. 0.917 (3sf) 6c. 9.96 cm and 17.5cm (3sf)

3a. We are given three pieces of 7. The data is continuous, has a very
information, the minimum length (a) is 8 distinct minimum, and is definitely skewed
hours, and the maximum time (b) would be to the right. Because the data is continuous
13 hours, and the most likely time (c) is 10 a uniform, triangular or normal distribution
hours. Therefore a triangular distribution is would be best. Because the data is skewed
best. to the right, and has a very clear peak, a
3b. 0.267 (3sf)
triangular distribution would be best. The
3c. 0.733 (3sf)
minimum value (a) would be $100,000, the
4a. We are given three pieces of maximum value (b) would be $190,000 and
information, the minimum calories (a) is the modal or most likely value (c) would be
1100, and the maximum calories (b) would $135,000.
be 2500, and the most likely calories (c) is
2000. Therefore a triangular distribution is
best.
4b. 0.127 (3sf)
4c. 0.0571 (3sf)
4d. σ = 290, μ = 1870
4e. 2240 calories (3sf)
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Part 5: Continuity Corrections

All of the distributions that we have done so far have been for continuous data, however often
times we want to model discrete data with a continuous distribution. For example we might
know the number of units a company sells of a particular product is between a and b, but we
don’t have any more information than this. We will look at situations where this happens for
the uniform, triangular and normal distributions, and then mix it up a bit at the end with a
combination of the distributions where you have to choose which distribution you think is
best.

We need to think about what the number is rounded to, for ‘number of’ type questions it is
obviously rounded to the nearest whole number, but sometimes things are measured to the
nearest 0.1 m for example. If this is the case then it will tell you what it has been measured
to, so you’ll know you need to use a continuity correction, but for ‘number of’ you’ll need to
always assume it has been rounded to the nearest whole number.
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Part 5.1: Uniform Distributions
Let’s look at an example for the uniform distribution.

Example
The number of people at a business on a given day is known to be between 2 and 5 people.
What is the probability that there will be more than 3 people at the business?

Answer
The first thing we need to do is think about the numbers… the smallest number that rounds
up to 2 is 1.5 and the largest number that rounds down to 5 is 5.5… if we were to draw a
diagram of what this looked like it would look a bit like this:

You can see that 2 goes from 1.5 to 2.5, 3 goes from 2.5 to 3.5 and so on. This means a = 1.5
and b = 5.5.
Therefore if we want to know the probability there are more than 3 people at the business you
need to know from the area of the rectangle from 3.5 (more than 3) to 5.5.
1 1 1
Height = = =
b−a 5.5−1.5 4
1 1
Probability = base × height = 2 × =
4 2

Exercise 5.1
1. The number of students in a class is 3. The weight of vegetables I buy from the
between 25 and 32. What is the supermarket is between 400 g and 500
probability there are: g measured to the nearest 5 grams.
a. Less than 28 students in the What is the probability the weight is:
class? a. More than 450 g?
b. More than 30 students in the b. Less than 470 g?
class? c. 400 g or less?
c. Exactly 26 students in the class? 4. The number of pens in my pocket is
2. The height of students is measured to always less than 10. What is the
the nearest 0.1 m. The tallest student probability I have:
was 2.1 m and the shortest was 1.5 m. a. 1 pen in my pocket?
Based on this what is the probability a b. More than 5 pens in my pocket?
student is measured to be: c. No pens in my pocket?
a. More than 1.7 m tall?
b. Less than 2 m tall?
c. Measured to be 1.7 m tall?
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Exercise 5.1 Answers
1a. 0.375 2a. 0.571 (3sf) 3a. 0.476 (3sf) 4a. 0.1
1b. 0.25 2b. 0.714 (3sf) 3b. 0.667 (3sf) 4b. 0.4
1c. 0.125 2c. 0.143 (3sf) 3c. 0.0476 (3sf) 4c. 0.1
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Part 5.2: Triangular Distribution
Exactly the same principle applies to the triangular distribution. Let’s look at an example…

Example
The amount of petrol in my tank is always between 5 L and 40 L. It normally has
approximately 30 L in it. I only know the amount of petrol to the nearest 0.5 L. What is the
probability there is less than 20 L in my tank?

Answer
Again, we need to think about the largest
number that rounds to 5 L and the smallest 2
number that rounds to 40 L… in this case a =
35.5
4.75 and b = 40.25. Because our modal value
is in the middle we don’t need to round this, it
will still stay as 30. The probability there is less
than 20 L in the tank means that the dial would
need to display 19.5 L, so any numbers smaller
4.75 19.75 30 40.25
than 19.75 would display this, so x = 19.75. If
we draw a diagram we get:
2 ( 19.75−4.75 ) 240
Doing the calculations height = =
( 40.25−4.75 ) ( 30−4.75 ) 7171
1 1 240
Probability = × base × height = ×15 × =0.251(3 sf )
2 2 7171

Exercise 5.2
1. The number of biscuits in a jumbo 3. The number of pages in a legal
packet is always between 35 and 42, document is known to be between 10
but it is most likely to be 38. What is the and 20, but is most likely to be 13.
probability there are: Calculate the probability there are:
a. Less than 37 biscuits? a. More than 18 pages in the
b. More than 39 biscuits? document.
c. Between 37 and 39 biscuits b. Less than 12 pages in the
inclusive? document.
d. Exactly 38 biscuits? c. Less than 10 pages in the
2. The amount of water in a glass is document.
between 120 mL and 160 mL measured d. Between 13 and 18 pages
to the nearest mL. Based on looking at it inclusive.
I think there is 130 mL in it. What is the 4. The number of pearls on a necklace is
probability there is: somewhere between 45 and 60, the
a. More than 150 mL in the glass? most common number of pearls is 50.
b. Less than 125 mL in the glass? What is the probability there are:
c. Between 125 mL and 150 mL in a. Less than 50 pearls on the
the glass inclusive? necklace?
d. An amount of water that b. More than 50 pearls on the
measures to be 125 mL? necklace?
c. Exactly 50 pearls on the
necklace?
d. Between 53 and 55 pearls
inclusive on the necklace?
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Exercise 5.2 Answers
1a. 0.143 (3sf) 2a. 0.0800 (3sf) 3a. 0.0485 (3sf) 4a. 0.284 (3sf)
1b. 0.25 2b. 0.0581 (3sf) 3b. 0.104 (3sf) 4b. 0.595 (3sf)
1c. 0.607 (3sf) 2c. 0.862 (3sf) 3c. 0 4c. 0.121 (3sf)
1d. 0.234 (3sf) 2d. 0.0256 (3sf) 3d. 0.718 (3sf) 4d. 0.232 (3sf)
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Part 5.3: Normal Distribution
Example Answer
The lengths of piping in a storage shed are This time we leave the mean and the
normally distributed with a mean of 3 m standard deviation alone. The only thing
and a standard deviation of 0.65 m. They that changes is the values we are looking
are marked with their length rounded to the between. For this question, the smallest
nearest 0.1 m. What is the probability the number that rounds to 2.5 is 2.45 and the
piping is labelled as being 2.5 m long? largest number that rounds to 2.5 is 2.55.
Therefore we need to find the probability
the length is between 2.45 and 2.55. Using
either our tables or a calculator we find this
is 0.0456.

Exercise 5.3
1. The number of hair ties in a packet is 3. The number of cotton buds in a box
normally distributed with a mean of 15 normally distributed with a mean of 200
and a standard deviation of 2. What is and a standard deviation of 30.
the probability there are: Calculate the probability the number of
a. More than 12 hair ties in the cotton buds in the box is:
packet? a. More than 150.
b. Less than 15 hair ties in the b. Less than 290.
packet? c. Exactly 200.
c. Exactly 14 hair ties in the packet? 4. The length of a zips in dresses are
2. The volume of a shampoo bottle is normally distributed with a mean of 45
normally distributed with a mean of 383 cm and a standard deviation of 10 cm.
mL and a standard deviation of 2 mL. If Zips are only sold in 5 cm increments.
my measuring tools can measure to the What is the probability the zip is:
nearest 1mL what is the probability a. More than 50 cm long?
there is: b. Less than 60 cm long?
a. More than 385 mL in the bottle? c. A 45 cm zip?
b. Exactly 385 mL in the bottle? d. A 10 cm zip?
c. Less than the stated amount of
380 mL in the bottle?
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Exercise 5.3 Answers
1a. 0.894 (3sf) 2a. 0.106 (3sf) 3a. 0.951 (3sf) 4a. 0.227 (3sf)
1b. 0.401 (3sf) 2b. 0.121 (3sf) 3b. 0.996 (3sf) 4b. 0.894 (3sf)
1c. 0.175 (3sf) 2c. 0.0000884 3c. 0.0133 (3sf) 4c. 0.197 (3sf)
(3sf) 4d. 0.000489 (3sf)
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Part 5.4: Mixed Questions
1. The age of a pine tree being cut down is between 3 and 40 years with the most common
age being 28 years. The age of the tree is only known to the nearest year.
a. Choose a distribution to model this situation and justify your choice.
b. What is the probability a tree cut down is more than 30 years old?
c. What is the probability a tree cut down is less than 20 years old?
d. What is the probability a tree cut down is between 20 and 30 years old inclusive?
e. In order to be in the oldest 25% of trees, how old does a tree that is cut down need
to be?
2. The volume of nail polish in a bottle is normally distributed with a mean of 40 mL and a
standard deviation of 10 mL. They are always measured to the nearest mL.
a. What is the probability a bottle has less than 25 mL in it?
b. Calculate the probability a bottle is stated as having 19 mL in it?
c. What is the probability there is more than 25 mL in the bottle?
d. Calculate the probability there between 30 mL and 35 mL in the bottle?
e. What volume do the smallest 5% of bottles have in them?
3. Length of a skipping rope is known to be between 1.4 m and 3.2 m. Skipping ropes are
manufactured in 20 cm increments.
a. Choose a distribution to model this situation and justify your choice.
b. What is the probability the skipping rope is more than 2 m long?
c. Calculate the probability the skipping rope is exactly 2.4 m?
d. What is the probability the skipping rope is less than 1.5 m long?
e. What length must a skipping rope be in order to be in the largest 15% of ropes?
4. The most common length of song in my music library is 3:27. The maximum length is
14:48 and the shortest length is 0:22. All songs lengths are displayed to the nearest
second.
a. Choose a distribution to model this situation and justify your choice.
b. What is the probability a song I select is more than 3 minutes long?
c. What is the probability a song I select is less than 5 minutes long?
d. If I have 1800 songs in my library, how many are likely to be more than 10 minutes
long?
e. What length must a song be shorter than to be in the bottom 10% of songs?
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Part 5.4 Answers
1a. We are given three pieces of 3a. We only have two pieces of information,
information, the minimum age (a) is 3 years the maximum length (b) is 3.2m (b=3.25),
(so a=2.5), and the maximum age (b) and the minimum length (a) would be 1.4m
would be 40 years (so b=40.5), and the (a=1.35). Therefore a uniform distribution
most likely age (c) is 28 years. Therefore a is best.
triangular distribution is best. 3b. 0.632 (3sf)
1b. 0.211 (3sf) 3c. 0.0526 (3sf)
1c. 0.298 (3sf) 3d. 0.0526 (3sf)
1d. 0.491 (3sf) 3e. 3m or longer
1e. 30 years or over 4a. We are given three pieces of
2a. 0.0606 (3sf) information, the minimum time (a) is 0:22
2b. 0.00440 (3sf) (so a=21.5 seconds), and the maximum
2c. 0.926 (3sf) age (b) would be 14:48 (so b=888.5
2d. 0.179 (3sf) seconds), and the most likely time (c) is
2e. 23 mL or less 3:27 (so c=207). Therefore a triangular
distribution is best.
4b. 0.843 (3sf)
4c. 0.413 (3sf)
4d. 0.1404 x 1800 = 253 songs
4e. 148 seconds or less (2:28 or less)
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Part 6: Discrete Random Variables

Quite often we are given probabilities for particular outcomes, but these do not follow a
particular distribution. For these we create a table of with the probability for each particular
outcome. This might look something like this:

The likelihood of winning different prizes in a raffle is shown below.

x $100 $50 $0
P(X=x) 1/100 2/100 97/100
From this we can see the probability of winning $100 is 1/100, the probability of winning $50
is 2/100 and the probability of not winning anything is 97/100. As you can see these
probabilities all add up to one.
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Part 6.1: Finding the Mean
The first thing that we need to do with these sorts of tables is find the mean. To find the mean
you multiply each number by the corresponding probability and then add them all up. Let’s
look at two examples.

Example 1 Example 2
The likelihood of winning different prizes in The length of time it takes to straighten
a raffle is shown below. hair is given in the table below.
x $100 $20 $ x 0≤x 5 ≤ x < 10 ≤ x <
0 <5 10 30
P(X= 1/10 3/10 q P(X= 0.2 0.5 0.3
x) 0 0 x)
Find q and calculate the mean of the prize Calculate the mean time it takes to
amount. straighten hair.

Answer Answer
The first thing we need to do is find q. As This question is slightly different as we are
probabilities always add to one, not given exact values, but ranges. The
1 3 96 values we want to use in this situation is
q=1− − = the midpoint of the range, so 2.5, 7.5 and
100 100 100
So the mean = 20 respectively.
1 3 96 Mean = 2.5 ×0.2+7.5 × 0.5+20 ×0.3=10.25
100 × + 20× +0 × =1.6 Therefore the mean time it takes to
100 100 100
Therefore the mean (or expected value) of straighten hair is 10.25 minutes (or 10
the prize from the raffle ticket is likely to be minutes and 15 seconds).
$1.60.
Note: in order for the raffle to be ‘fair’ the cost of the ticket should be the same as the mean,
and if the raffle is to make money the ticket price must be higher than the mean.

Exercise 6.1
1. The prizes in a lottery are shown in the 3. Toyota Corollas come in 3 engine sizes,
table below. 35% are 1.5 L engines, 50% are 1.8 L
x $20 $10 $0 engines and the rest are 2.0 L engines.
P(X=x) 0.02 0.1 q a. What percentage of Toyota
a. Calculate the value of q Corollas have 2.0 L engines?
b. What is the mean of the prizes?? b. Calculate the average engine
2. Biscuits come in 3 packet sizes, small size.
(12), medium (18) and large (30). 4. Stockings come in three lengths, small
x 12 18 30 (147 – 161 cm), average (162 – 171 cm)
P(X=x) 0.3 0.5 0.2 and Tall (172 – 183 cm).
Calculate the mean number of biscuits x 147 – 162 – 172 –
in a packet based on the table above. 161 171 183
P(X=x) 0.6 m 0.2
Calculate the mean length of the
stockings.
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Exercise 6.1 Answers
1a. 0.88 2. 18.60 3a. 15% 4. m = 0.2
1b. $1.40 3b. 1.725 so mean =
161.2
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Part 6.2: Finding the Standard Deviation
The next thing we need to do is find the standard deviation. This is a two-step process where
we need to find E(X2) (pronounced expected value of x-squared) and E(X) (the expected value
of x, which is also the mean), this enables us to find the variance which is the standard
deviation squared, so we just square root to get the standard deviation.

√ 2
The formula you are given is σ = E ( X 2 ) −[ E ( X ) ] .

Example
The likelihood of winning different prizes in a raffle is shown below.
x $100 $20 $
0
P(X= 1/10 3/10 q
x) 0 0
Find q and calculate the mean and standard deviation of the prize amount.

Answer
96
In part 6.1 we worked out q= and the mean, or E(X) = 1.6. This means to use our formula
100
we need to calculate E(X 2). To do this we need to work out what x 2 is. It is best to add a new
row to the table.
x $100 $20 $
0
P(X= 1/10 3/10 q
x) 0 0
x2 1000 400 0
0
To work out E(X2) it is the same process as with the mean except instead of multiplying the
probability and x we multiply the probability and x 2. This gives
1 3 96
E ( X ) =10000 ×
2
+ 400 × + 0× =112.
100 100 100
√ 2
√
We then substitute into the formula σ = E ( X 2 ) −[ E ( X ) ] = 112− [ 1.6 ] 2=√ 109.44=10.46 (4sf).
Therefore the mean = $1.60 and the standard deviation = 10.46.

Note: If you are asked to calculate the variance you just do not square root at the end, so for
this example the variance is 109.44.

Exercise 6.2
Note, to save doing double calculations these are the same situations as exercise 6.1.

1. The prizes in a lottery are shown in the 3. Toyota Corollas come in 3 engine sizes,
table below. 35% are 1.5 L engines, 50% are 1.8 L
x $20 $10 $0 engines and the rest (15%) are 2.0 L
P(X=x) 0.02 0.1 0.88 engines. Calculate the standard
What is the standard deviation of the deviation of the size of Toyota Corolla
prize from the raffle? engines.
2. Biscuits come in 3 packet sizes, small 4. Stockings come in three lengths, small
(12), medium (18) and large (30). (147 – 161 cm), average (162 – 171 cm)
x 12 18 30 and Tall (172 – 183 cm).
P(X=x) 0.3 0.5 0.2 x 147 – 162 – 172 –
Calculate the standard deviation of the 161 171 183
number of biscuits in a packet based on P(X=x) 0.6 m 0.2
the table above. Calculate the standard deviation of the
length of the stockings.
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Exercise 6.2 Answers
1. 4.00 (3sf) 2. 6.26 (3sf) 3. 0.179 (3sf) 4. 9.48 (3sf)
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Part 6.3: Linear Combinations
You by now may have noticed the formulas to the right E [aX + b]=aE[ X ]+ b
on your formula sheet. Let’s look at them one at a time
to see what they mean and an example for each one. Var [aX +b ]=a 2Var [ X ]
They are designed for when we want to add two
E [aX + bY ]=aE[ X ]+ bE[Y ]
distributions together or for when we multiply a
distribution or add things happening to a distribution. It is Var [aX +bY ]=a 2 Var [ X ]+ b 2Var [Y ]
very important that for these sorts of distributions that
you work out the variance before working out the If X, Y are independent
standard deviation, as it is very easy to make mistakes
which mean that you get the wrong answer if you try and
do it all in one step.

E[aX + b] = aE[X] + b Var[aX + b] = a2Var[X]

This formula means if I have ‘a’ times X This formula is the matching one for
plus ‘b’ the expected value, or the mean variance (standard deviation squared) and
will be a times the expected value of X plus means if I have ‘a’ times X plus ‘b’ the
b. variance will be a squared times the
expected value of X.
Note, we do not add ‘b’ on to the variance because the b does not affect how spread out the
data is.

Example
A salesman earns commission of $10 for every TV he sells plus a fixed rate of $30 a day. If he
sells on average 4.3 TVs per day with a standard deviation of 0.3 TVs, calculate the mean and
standard deviation for how much he will earn each day.

Answer
Let’s start by working out the mean, or E(aX + b). E [ aX +b ] =a E [ X ] +b=10 ×4.3+ 30=$ 73.00
Now let’s work out the variance. The Var(X) = sd 2 = 0.32 = 0.09.
Var [ aX +b ] =a Var [ X ] =10 × 0.09=9
2 2

So the standard deviation = √ 9=$ 3.00

E[aX + bY] = aE[X] + bE[Y] Var[aX + bY] = a2Var[X] + b2Var[Y]

This formula means that if I have ‘a’ times This is the matching formula for variance
X plus ‘b’ times Y then the expected total is and means the variance of the sum is ‘a’
‘a’ times the expected number of X plus ‘b’ squared times the variance of X plus ‘b’
times the expected number of Y. squared times the variance of Y.
Note: these last two formulas assume that X and Y are independent.

Example
In prescription glasses the weight of the lens is 9 grams with a standard deviation of 2 grams.
The frames have an average weight of 6 grams with a standard deviation of 1 gram. If the
material for the glass costs $3.20 per gram and the material for the frame costs $2.50 per
gram, what is the mean and standard deviation for the cost of the materials in the glasses?

Answer
Lets start with the mean. E [ aX +bY ] =a E [ X ] +b E [ Y ] =$ 3.20× 9+ $ 2.50 ×6=$ 43.80 .
Then the variance = Var [ aX +bY ]=a2 Var [ X ] +b 2 Var [ Y ] =3.202 ×22 +2.502 × 12=47.21.
(the 22 and 12 are because the variance = sd2)
This means the standard deviation of the total weight = √ 47.21=$ 6.87 (3sf)

Note: when you have ‘3 lots of’ you do not square the number of them, as you are just adding
it on a number of times.
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Exercise 6.3
1. The length of a worm is on average 7.3 3. A pair of kiwi birds is being transported.
cm with a standard deviation of 0.6 cm. The average weight of a female kiwi is
a. If 10 worms were laid end to end 2.91 kg with a standard deviation of
how long would you expect the 0.404. The average weight of a male is
chain to be, and what would the 2.26 kg with a standard deviation of
standard deviation of this length 0.274. What is the mean and standard
be? deviation for the total cost of
b. In reality laying 10 worms end to transporting one male and one female if
end is quite tricky, so you need a the different requirements mean that it
1cm gap between them (9cm costs $125 per kilo to transport males
total). With this gap what would and $135 per kilo to transport females?
the mean and standard deviation 4. The weight of an average adult in NZ is
be for total length of the line? 81.3 kg with a standard deviation of 6.2
2. The average time it takes for a relay kg.
runner to run 400 m is 55 seconds with a. If you have 10 NZ adults how
a standard deviation of 3 seconds, how much are they likely to weigh in
long would you expect it to take for a total, and what would the
team of 4 runners to complete a 4 x 400 standard deviation be of this total
m relay, and what would the standard weight?
deviation of this time be, if there is a b. If 5 adults were in a lift with 4
delay at the start of 5 seconds as the suitcases with an average weight
first runner gets up to speed? of 15 kg and a standard deviation
of 2 kg, what is the total weight of
the passengers and their
suitcases?
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Exercise 6.3 Answers
1a. μ = 73cm, σ = 1.90 3. μ = $675.35 (3sf), σ = $64.40 (3sf)
1b. μ = 82cm, σ = 1.90 4a. μ = 813 kg, σ = 19.6 kg (3sf)
2. μ = 225 seconds, σ = 6 seconds 4b. μ = 466.5 kg, σ = 14.4 kg (3sf
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Part 6.4: Mixed Questions
1. Two raffles are being run as part of a fundraiser for a school. The first raffle has 500 tickets
with a first prize of $500, a second prize of $300 and a third prize of $100. The second
raffle has only 200 tickets with a first prize of $1000 a second prize of $500 and a third
prize of $200.
a. Calculate the mean and the standard deviation of the prize amount for the first
raffle.
b. Calculate the mean and the standard deviation of the prize amount for the second
raffle.
c. Which raffle would you expect to have a higher price?
d. If the school wants to make at least $1000 from the first raffle and $500 from the
second raffle, how much should they sell the tickets to for each raffle? (Prices must
be whole dollar amounts)
e. If I purchased 9 tickets to the first raffle and 4 tickets to the second raffle what
would I expect my average winnings to be?
2. A large extended family has 3 boys and 5 girls going to the school ball this year. The mean
amount that boys spend on their outfit is $213 with a standard deviation of $127. The
mean amount girls spend on their outfit is $401 with a standard deviation of $246.
a. What is the mean and standard deviation for the total amount spent by this
extended family on their outfits?
b. Assuming these amounts are normally distributed calculate the probability the
extended family spends more than $3,000 on ball outfits this year?
c. What assumptions are made in order for the answer in part b. to be calculated?
3. A business is working on two projects. Project A is a smaller job that is likely to cost
between $10,000 and $90,000 but the business expects it to cost approximately $40,000.
Project B is a larger job that is likely to cost between $100,000 and $300,000, but the best
estimate for its cost is $220,000. The business only has $300,000 in its bank account to
pay for the two projects.
Calculate the mean and standard deviation of total cost of the two projects and using a
normal approximation calculate the probability the business has enough money to pay for
the two projects.
State any assumptions you are making as you are doing your calculations.
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Part 6.4 Answers
1a. μ = $1.80, σ = $26.40 (3sf) 3. Project 1: σ = $16,500, μ = $46,700
1b. μ = $8.50, σ = $79.90 (3sf) Project 2: σ = $41,100, μ = $207,000
1c. The second raffle Combined: σ = $44,288, μ = $253,700
1d. $4 and $11 P(Total > $300,000) = 0.148 (3sf)
1e. $50.20 We have assumed that the cost of one
project doesn’t affect the cost of the other
2a. μ =$2644, σ = $592 (3sf) project, and that a normal distribution is
2b. 0.274 (3sf) appropriate to model the combined costs.
2c. We were assuming that the amount
spent by one person was independent from
the others (which may not be a good
assumption in this case as they are all from
one family, and how much they spend is
likely to be affected by how much others in
the family spend).
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Part 7: The Binomial Distribution

We use the binomial distribution in situations where the same thing happens a fixed number
of times, and the outcome has the same probability each time. On the formula sheet you are
given a number of formulas for the binomial distribution. These are:

( nx) π ( 1−π )
P ( X=x ) =
x n −x
μ=nπ σ =√ nπ ( 1−π )

Now… what do these letters mean?

n = the number of ‘trials’ or the number of times the event occurs.
π = the probability of the particular outcome occurring.
x = the actual number that we care about.
We are going to look at several things, but there are two assumptions that this makes… it
assumes that each event is independent from each other, and it only works if there are two
outcomes, normally the event meets one criteria or it doesn’t.
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Part 7.1: Probability it is Exactly

( nx) π ( 1−π )
Let’s look at the first formula, P ( X=x ) =
x n −x
. Fortunately if you have a graphics
calculator you don’t need to worry about using this formula unless you are going for
excellence. This formula works out the probability of an event meeting a criteria exactly x
times when it has a probability of π of meeting the criteria and happens n times. Let’s look at
an example:

Example
I was at an outlet store and there was a watch sale on, the only catch was there was a 40%
chance that the watch didn’t work. I decided that I would buy 5 watches and then sell on
whichever ones did work that I didn’t need. What is the probability exactly 3 watches work?

Answer (Graphics Calculator) Answer (Formula)

Again we go into STATS (2)  DIST (F5) and We can see that x = 3, n = 5 and π = 0.6
this time we go into BINM (F5) and when we as the probability of failing is 0.4 so the
are working out the probability it is exactly probability it works is 0.6. We substitute
we use Bpd (Binomial Point Distribution). In these into the formula
this case x = 3, Numtrial = 5 and p = 0.6
as the probability of failing is 0.4 so the
probability it works is 0.6. This would look
( nx) π ( 1−π ) we get
P ( X=x ) =
x n −x

P ( X=3 )=( )0.6 ( 1−0.6 ) =0.3456

5 3 5−3
like this:
3
Note: ( ) means C
n n
x
x
Which gives us an answer of 0.3456.
As you can see these two answers match
up.
Exercise 7.1
1. The probability of a person being 2. In a manufacturing process 12% of
allergic to peanuts is 0.1. In a group of items are faulty. What is the probability
10 students what is the probability: that there is exactly one faulty item:
a. Exactly 3 are allergic? a. In a sample of 30?
b. Exactly 2 are allergic? b. In a sample of 20?
c. Exactly 1 is allergic? c. In a sample of 10?
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Exercise 7.1 Answers
1a. 0.0574 (3sf) 2a. 0.0884 (3sf)
1b. 0.194 (3sf) 2b. 0.212 (3sf)
1c. 0.387 (3sf) 2c. 0.380 (3sf)
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Part 7.2: Probability it is Less Than or Up To
The next part is very similar, but this time instead of working out the probability it is exactly,
we want to work out the probability it is less than or up to a particular number. Let’s look at
an example:

Example
I was at an outlet store and there was a watch sale on, the only catch was there was a 40%
chance that the watch didn’t work. I decided that I would buy 5 watches and then sell on
whichever ones did work that I didn’t need. What is the probability that less than 3 watches
work?

Answer
The first thing I always do is draw a number line and highlight the numbers I want, this helps
avoid making silly mistakes… remember the number line stats at zero.

0 1 2 3 4 5

This is super important… do it every time! Otherwise you will make mistakes.

(Graphics Calculator) (Formula)

Again we go into STATS (2)  DIST (F5) and We can see that x = 0, 1 or 2, n = 5 and π
this time we go into BINM (F5) and when we = 0.6. This means we need to substitute
are working out the probability it is up to into the formula 3 times, once for each
we use Bcd (Binomial Cumulative vaule of x… we get
Distribution). In this case x = 2 (the number
we want up to), Numtrial = 5 and p = 0.6.
This would look like this:
P ( X=2 )=( 52) 0.6 ( 1−0.6 )
2 5−2
=0.2304

P ( X=1 )=( ) 0.6 ( 1−0.6 )

5 1 5−1
=0.0768
1
P ( X=0 )=( ) 0.6 ( 1−0.6 )
5 0 5−0
=0.01024
0
Which gives us an answer of 0.31744.
We then add these up giving 0.31744.

As you can see these two answers match

up.
Exercise 7.2
1. The probability of having to stop at a 3. I have a box of 6 calculators. The
traffic light is 0.4. If I drive through 5 probability of the calculator working is
sets of traffic lights on the way to work 0.9. What is the probability that:
what is the probability: a. Less than 2 work?
a. I don’t have to stop b. Up to 5 work?
b. I have to stop at 3 or less traffic c. None work?
lights? 4. Each morning I make myself lunch. 60%
c. I have to stop at less than 3 traffic of the time I make myself cheese
lights? sandwiches, the rest of the time I make
2. In a multi-choice test there are 5 something else. What is the probability
possible answers to each question. What in one week (5 days) I have:
is the probability if you are guessing for a. Less than 3 cheese sandwiches?
all 10 questions that you get: b. Up to 2 days where I have
a. None right? something else for lunch?
b. Less than 3 questions correct? c. 1 or less days where I have
c. 8 or less questions correct? cheese sandwiches?
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Exercise 7.2 Answers
1a. 0.0778 (3sf) 2a. 0.107 (3sf) 3a. 0.000055 4a. 0.317 (3sf)
1b. 0.913 (3sf) 2b. 0.678 (3sf) 3b. 0.469 (3sf) 4b. 0.337 (3sf)
1c. 0.683 (3sf) 2c. 1.00 (3sf) 3c. 0.000001 4c. 0.0870 (3sf)
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Part 7.3: Probability it is More Than
In the last section we look at the probability that up to, or less than a particular number
occurred, now we want to know the probability that more than a certain number occurred. To
do this we capitalise on the fact that probabilities always add up to one, so we calculate the
probability of the bit we don’t want (using the up to method) and then subtract it from 1. Let’s
look at an example.

Example
I roll a dice 8 times, what is the probability I get a 3 at least 5 times?

Answer
Again, the first thing I always do is draw a number line and highlight the numbers I want, this
helps avoid making silly mistakes… remember the number line stats at zero.

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8.

(Graphics Calculator) (Formula)

As you can see we want 5-8… the We can see that x = 5, 6, 7 or 8, n = 8 and
calculator doesn’t work this out, so we need 1
to work out up to and including 4 and then π = . This means we need to substitute
6
subtract this from 1. into the formula 3 times, once for each
We go into STATS (2)  DIST (F5) and this vaule of x… we get
time we go into BINM (F5) and when we are
( )( )( )
5 8−5
8 1 1
working out the probability it is up to we P ( X=5 )= 1− =0.0041676
use Bcd (Binomial Cumulative Distribution). 5 6 6

( )( )( )
6 8−6
In this case x = 4 (the number we want up 8 1 1
P ( X=6 )= 1− =0.0004168
to), Numtrial = 8 and p = 1/6. This would 6 6 6
look like this:
( )( )( )
7 8−7
8 1 1
P ( X=7 )= 1− =0.0000238
7 6 6

( )( )( )
8 8−8
8 1 1
P ( X=8 )= 1− =0.0000006
8 6 6
This gives us an answer of 0.99539.
We then subtract this off one to get We then add these up giving 0.00461.
0.00461
As you can see these two answers match
up.
Exercise 7.3
1. The probability of catching a Frisbee 3. The probability of a part being faulty is
when a long throw is made is 0.4. If two 1%. If 10 parts are chosen at random for
players make 10 throws, what is the inspection, what is the probability
probability that: a. None of them are faulty?
a. More than 3 of them are caught? b. At least 1 of them is faulty?
b. More than 6 of them are caught? c. More than 5 of them are faulty?
c. 6 or more of them are caught? d. Less than 3 are faulty?
d. Exactly 4 were caught? 4. I flip a coin a number of times and
2. The probability of winning a tennis record my results. What is the
match is 0.7. If the player plays 10 probability I get
matches, calculate the probability he: a. More than 3 heads if I flip it 5
a. Wins at least half of them. times?
b. Wins 6 or more of them. b. Less than 2 heads if I flip it 3
c. Wins all of them. times?
d. Loses all of them? c. 2 heads if I flip it 4 times?
d. Between 3 and 5 heads
(inclusive) if I flip it 8 times?
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Exercise 7.3 Answers
1a. 0.618 (3sf) 2a. 0.953 (3sf) 3a. 0.904 (3sf) 4a. 0.188 (3sf)
1b. 0.0548 (3sf) 2b. 0.850 (3sf) 3b. 0.0956 (3sf) 4b. 0.5
1c. 0.166 (3sf) 2c. 0.0282 (3sf) 3c. 0.0000000242 4c. 0.375
1d. 0.251 (3sf) 2d. 0.00000590 (3sf) 4d. 0.711 (3sf)
(3sf) 3d. 1.00 (3sf)
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Part 7.4: Mean and Standard Deviation
You may have noticed at the start I gave you three formulas… we are now going to use the
last two of these… they are for calculating the mean and the standard deviation.

μ=nπ σ= √ nπ ( 1−π )

With these (which are given to us) we can very quickly and easily calculate the mean and
standard deviation for a binomial distribution. Let’s look at an example.

Example
I flip a coin 100 times, what is the mean and standard deviation for the number of heads I
get?

Answer
The first thing we need to do is identify n and π. As n is the number of trials and we flip the
coin 100 times, n = 100 and π is the probability of a head occurring which we know is 0.5. We
then just substitute these into the formulas, making μ=nπ=100 × 0.5=50 and
σ =√ nπ ( 1−π )= √ 100 ×0.5 ( 1−0.5 )=5

Exercise 7.4
For each of the following situations calculate the mean and the standard deviation.
1. The probability of a person being 5. In a multi-choice test there are 5
allergic to peanuts is 0.1 and I have a possible answers to each question and
group of 10 students. there are 10 questions.
2. In a manufacturing process 12% of 6. Each morning I make myself lunch. 60%
items are faulty. I need to take a sample of the time I make myself cheese
of 30 people. sandwiches, the rest of the time I make
3. The probability of having to stop at a something else. The time period we are
traffic light is 0.4. I drive through 5 sets looking at is one week (5 days).
of traffic lights on the way to work.
4. I have a box of 6 calculators. The
probability of the calculator working is
0.9.
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Exercise 7.4 Answers
1. σ = 0.949 (3sf), μ = 1 4. σ = 0.735 (3sf), μ = 5.4
2. σ = 1.78 (3sf), μ = 3.6 5. σ = 1.26 (3sf), μ = 2
3. σ = 1.10 (3sf), μ = 2 6. σ = 1.10 (3sf), μ = 3
7.
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Part 7.5: Working Backwards and Using the Formula
Often we are given harder situations where we are required to work backwards, i.e. we are
given the answer and we need to work out some of the parameters of the situation.
Sometimes this is easiest to do by trial and error on the calculator, and other times we need
to use the formula. Let’s look at an example where we can use the formula, and then you’ll
get to do a series of questions where you can choose the approach.

Example
In a factory a quality control system is used to check 10 items at regular intervals. If one or
more of them is faulty then the machine needs to be fixed. 88.5% of the time the machine is
fine (i.e. no items are faulty in the sample). Calculate the percentage of items produced that
are faulty based on these outcomes.

Answer
First of all we should write down what we know. We know x = 0, n = 10 and the answer
should be 0.885. If we put all this information into the formula we get:

( nx) π ( 1−π ) =( 100) π ( 1−π )

P ( X=x ) =
x n −x 0 10−0 10
=( 1−π ) =0.885

If we put ( 1−π )10=0.885 into solver on the calculator (EQUA  SOLV) we find π = 0.01214 (4sf)
which means 1.214% of the items produced are faulty.

Note: sometimes the easiest way to solve this is just by trial and error in the calculator.

Exercise 7.5
1. The probability of a student being sick 2. An office building has 930 light bulbs.
on any given day is 5%. a. If the probability that 31 light
a. If the probability that 50 students bulbs are blown is 0.0612, what is
are away from a school is the probability that a light bulb
0.05779 how many students are blows?
at the school? b. On 6.4% of days the number of
b. A certain number of students are light bulbs that are blown today
away today from a school of 550. happens, what number of light
This number of students being bulbs is blown if the probability a
away occurs 6.65% of the time. bulb blows is 4%.
How many students are away?
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Exercise 7.5 Answers
1a. 1000 2a. 0.0300 (3sf) or 0.0369 (3sf)
1b. 30 2b. 35
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Part 7.6: Assumptions
When you are asked to justify the use of the binomial distribution you use the acronym FIST. If
we look at the example of rolling the dice 6 times and getting a 3 a certain number of times:
Fixed number of trials – I roll the dice 6 times.
Independent – the result from each roll in independent from the other rolls.
1
Same – the probability of getting a 3 is always .
6
Two Outcomes – there are two possible outcomes, it is either a three or it is not a
three.
It is super important that you put all of the sections in context, rather than just stating what
each letter means.
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Part 7.7: Mixed Questions
1. The probability of a teacher being involved in extracurricular activities is 65%. If there are
130 teachers at a school:
a. Choose a distribution to model this situation and justify your choice.
b. What is the probability that at least half of the teachers are involved in
extracurricular activities?
c. What is the expected number of teachers involved in extracurricular activities?
d. The school knows that the likelihood of having the number of teachers they actually
do have involved in extracurricular activities is 1.126%. How many teachers do they
have involved?
2. An experiment is being conducted to see if a coin is fair. It is thrown a certain number of
times and the results are recorded if it is a heads or a tails.
a. Choose a distribution to model this situation and justify your choice.
b. If the coin is a fair coin and is thrown 100 times, what is the probability that less
than 40 of them it comes up heads?
c. If the coin was thrown 100 times, what would the mean and the standard deviation
be for the expected number of heads if the coin is fair?
d. The researchers did this experiment 1000 times, flipping the coin 100 times each
experiment and recording the results. On 79 of the experiments 55 heads came up.
Based on this what is the probability that the coin shows heads on each flip, and
therefore is it a fair coin?
3. The probability that a morning is foggy is 5%.
a. Choose a distribution to model the number of foggy mornings in a week and justify
your choice.
b. What is the probability that there are no foggy mornings in a week (7 days)?
c. Calculate the probability that there are more than 2 foggy mornings in a week (7
days).
d. If the probability of getting 2 foggy days over a period of time is 0.198. How many
days is this period of time?
e. What is the probability that on two consecutive weeks that there are more than two
days each week that are foggy? Comment on the validity of any assumptions you
have made.
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Part 7.7 Answers
1a. A binomial distribution is best. This is 3a. A binomial distribution is best. This is
because: because:
 There are a Fixed number of teachers at  There are a Fixed number of days we
the school (130) so a fixed number of will look at so a fixed number of ‘trials’
‘trials’  The probability one flip is foggy can be
 The probability one teacher is involved assumed to be Independent from the
is Independent from the other teachers other days
 The probability of each teacher being  The probability of each day being foggy
involved is always the Same (0.65) is always the Same (0.05)
 There are Two possible outcomes, either  There are Two possible outcomes, either
the teacher is involved or not. the day is foggy or it is not.
1b. 1.00 (3sf) 3b. 0.698 (3sf)
1c. 84.5 so 85 teachers 3c. 0.00376 (3sf)
1d. 95 teachers 3d. 21 days
3e. 0.00376 x 0.00376 = 0.0000141
2a. A binomial distribution is best. This is This assumes that each day, and each
because: week is independent of each other. This
 There are a Fixed number of coin flips may not be a valid assumption as bad
so a fixed number of ‘trials’ weather often will hit several days in a row,
 The probability one flip is heads is and in winter you are more likely to get bad
Independent from the other flips weather.
 The probability of each flip being heads
is always the Same (0.5 if it is fair)
 There are Two possible outcomes, either
heads or tails.
2b. 0.0176 (3sf)
2c. σ = 5, μ = 50
2d. 0.542 or 0.558 (3sf) so therefore not a
fair coin.
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Part 8: The Poisson Distribution

We use the Poisson distribution when there is a certain number per something, for example
the number of calls to a call centre per hour, or the number of worms per m2 of grass. We are
given a number of formulas:
x −λ
λ e
P ( X=x ) = μ= λ σ= √ λ
x!
Now… what do these letters mean?
λ = the mean number per a given amount (it is pronounced lambda)
x = the specific number we are looking at
e = a mathematical constant approximately equal to 2.71828… (it’s on your calculator)
We are going to look at several things, but there are a couple of assumptions that this
distribution makes, it assumes that the occurrence of the item is random and independent
from other occurrences, but the big one is that it is when the number of items or events is
proportional to the area or the time etc. It also assumes that the items or events cannot occur
simultaneously.
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Part 8.1: Probability it is Exactly
x −λ
Let’s look at the first formula: P ( X=x ) =
λ e . This works out the probability of an event
x!
occurring exactly x times in a given period of time or amount if it occurs on average λ times.
Let’s look at an example:

Example
The number of calls to a call centre is on average 3.2 per minute. What is the probability
there are exactly 25 calls in 10 minutes?

Answer
Well, the first thing we need to do is work out the average number of calls in 10 minutes. If
there are 3.2 calls per minute, then in 10 minutes there will be 10 ×3.2=32 on average.

(Graphics Calculator) (Formula)

We go to STAT (2)  DIST (F5)  Across x −λ

(F6)  Poisn (F1). We want Ppd as we are The formula is ( X =x )= λ e . If we

x!
after exactly. In this case x = 25 and µ = substitute
32 which looks like this: x = 25 and λ = 32 into the formula
we get
25 −32
32 e
P( X=25)= =0.0347 (3sf)
25 !
When we press calculate we get 0.0347
(3sf) which is the probability of getting This gives us the same probability as when
exactly 25 calls in 10 minutes. we used the calculator.
Exercise 8.1
1. The number of worms per m2 of garden 3. There have been 10 accidents on a 2km
is on average 35. What is the probability stretch of motorway in the last year. If
there is exactly 70 worms in 2 m2 of there are 52 weeks in a year what is the
garden? probability on that 2km stretch there
2. The number of detentions given out at a are no accidents this week?
school is approximately 20 per day. 4. The number of sandwiches that I eat for
What is the probability that in a week (5 lunch is on average 2.5. Explain whether
days) there were exactly 90 detentions it is more likely for me to eat two or
given out? three sandwiches for lunch on any given
day. (I always eat a whole number of
sandwiches)
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Exercise 8.1 Answers
1. 0.0476 (3sf) 3. 0.825 (3sf)
2. 0.0250 (3sf) 4. P(x=2) = 0.257 (3sf), P(x=3) = 0.214
(3sf)
So I am more likely to eat 2 sandwiches
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Part 8.2: Probability it is Less Than or Up To
As well as working out the probability that it is exactly an amount, we need to know the
probability it is up to or less than a certain amount. Let’s look at an example:

Example
My car has broken down 10 times in the last 8 years. What is the probability it breaks down
less than 3 times in the next year?

Answer
The first thing I always do is draw a number line and highlight the numbers I want, this helps
avoid making silly mistakes… remember the number line stats at zero.

0 1 2 3 4 5…

This is super important… do it every time! Otherwise you will make mistakes.
10
We then work out that the mean per year is =1.25 and the number we want up to (x) is 2.
8

(Graphics Calculator) (Formula)

We go to STAT (2)  DIST (F5)  Across We can see that x = 0, 1 or 2 and λ = 1.25.
(F6)  Poisn (F1). We want Pcd as we are This means we need to substitute into the
after up to. In this case x = 2 and µ = 1.25 formula 3 times, once for each vaule of x…
which looks like this: we get
2 −1.25
1.25 e
P ( X=2 )= =0.22383
2!
1 −1.25
1.25 e
When we press calculate we get 0.868 (3sf) P ( X=1 )= =0.35813
1!
which is the probability of getting less than 0 −1.25
1.25 e
three break downs in the next year. (
P X=0 = ) =0.28650
0!
We then add these up giving 0.868 (3sf).
As you can see these two answers match
up.

Exercise 8.2
1. There are approximately 300 flights per 3. The number of trees planted per hectare
day from Auckland airport. What is the in a pine plantation is on average 300.
probability there is: What is the probability that in a forestry
a. Less than 275 flights in a given block there are:
day? a. Less than 3100 trees in a 10
b. Up to 310 flights in a given day? hectares?
c. Exactly 300 flights in a given day? b. Up to 4400 trees in a 15
d. Less than 500 flights in two days? hectares?
2. The number of police callouts to a c. Exactly 3000 trees in a 10
particular neighbourhood is on average hectares?
3 per week (7 days). What is the d. Less than 100 trees in a half
probability that there are: hectare block?
a. Up to 2 callouts in the next 2 4. The number of bacteria in a probiotic
days? tablet is on average 20,000. What is the
b. Less than 4 callouts in the next 2 probability there are:
days? a. Less than 19,900 bacteria in the
c. Exactly 1 callout in the next 2 tablet?
days? b. Up to 19,900 bacteria in the
d. No callouts in the next week? tablet?
c. Exactly 20,000 bacteria in the
tablet?
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d. Less than 40,000 bacteria in two
tablets?

Exercise 8.2 Answers

1a. 0.0689 (3sf) 2a. 0.944 (3sf) 3a. 0.965 (3sf) 4a. 0.239 (3sf)
1b. 0.730 (3sf) 2b. 0.989 (3sf) 3b. 0.0686 (3sf) 4b. 0.241 (3sf)
1c. 0.0230 (3sf) 2c. 0.364 (3sf) 3c. 0.00728 (3sf) 4c. 0.00282 (3sf)
1d. 0.0000123 2d. 0.0498 (3sf) 3d. 0.00000592 4d. 0.499 (3sf)
(3sf) (3sf)
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Part 8.3: Probability it is More Than
Again, just like with the binomial, we often need to work out the probability that it is more
than a certain amount. Let’s look at an example.

Example
My car has broken down 10 times in the last 8 years. What is the probability it breaks down
more than once in the next year?

Answer
Again, the first thing we should do is draw a number line and highlight the part that we want…

0 1 2 3 4 5…

And from the last time we did this question we can remember that the mean is 1.25.

(Graphics Calculator) (Formula)

We go to STAT (2)  DIST (F5)  Across We can see that x is not 0 or 1 and λ =
(F6)  Poisn (F1). We want Pcd as we are 1.25. This means we need to substitute into
after up to. In this case x = 1 and µ = 1.25 the formula 2 times, once for each vaule of
which looks like this: x… we get
1 −1.25
1.25 e
P ( X=1 )= =0.35813
1!
0 −1.25
1.25 e
When we press calculate we get 0.6446 P ( X=0 )= =0.28650
0!
(4sf) which is the probability of the part we We then add these up giving 0.6446 (4sf).
do not want. We subtract from 1 giving 0.355 (3sf).
We then do 1 – 0.6446 to find the As you can see these two answers match
probability of the car breaking down more up.
than once is 0.355 (3sf).

Exercise 8.3
1. The number of kiwi birds in a km 2 in a 3. The number of cups of coffee sold at a
particular area is on average 20. café is on average 15 per hour.
Calculate the probability there are: Calculate the probability the café sells:
a. More than 25 kiwi birds in a 1 km 2 a. More than 20 cups of coffee in a
area. hour.
b. 50 or more kiwi birds in a 3 km 2 b. 10 or more cups of coffee in half
area. an hour.
c. Exactly 58 kiwi birds in a 3 km 2 c. Less than 5 cups of coffee in 15
area. minutes.
d. Between 18 and 22 kiwi birds d. Between 3 and 5 cups of coffee
(inclusive) in a 1 km2 area. (inclusive) in 10 minutes.
2. The number of books on a shelf in the 4. The number of calls to a call centre is on
library is on average 50. What is the average 10 per minute. What is the
probability there are: probability there are:
a. 60 or more books on a shelf a. More than 12 calls in a minute?
b. More than 90 books on two b. 100 or more calls in 10 minutes?
shelves? c. Less than 10 calls in a minute?
c. Exactly 95 books on two shelves? d. Between 8 and 12 calls (inclusive)
d. Between 45 and 55 books in a minute?
(inclusive) on a shelf?
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Exercise 8.3 Answers
1a. 0.157 (3sf) 2a. 0.0923 (3sf) 3a. 0.0830 (3sf) 4a. 0.208 (3sf)
1b. 0.916 (3sf) 2b. 0.829 (3sf) 3b. 0.224 (3sf) 4b. 0.513 (3sf)
1c. 0.0506 (3sf) 2c. 0.0360 (3sf) 3c. 0.678 (3sf) 4c. 0.458 (3sf)
1d. 0.424 (3sf) 2d. 0.563 (3sf) 3d. 0.414 (3sf) 4d. 0.571 (3sf)
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Part 8.4: Mean and Standard Deviation
You may have also noticed that on the formula sheet we are given the formulas for the mean
( μ= λ) and the standard deviation (σ =√ λ). We can use these to very quickly work out the
standard deviation, as obviously the mean is already given to us in most situations. Let’s look
at an example:

Example
My car has broken down 10 times in the last 8 years. What is the mean and the standard
deviation for the number of times it is likely to break down in the next year?

Answer
10
Well… we know from previously the average number of breakdowns is =1.25 and the
8
standard deviation is σ =√ λ=√ 1.25=1.118 (4sf).

Exercise 8.4
1. The number of worms per m2 of garden 3. There have been 10 accidents on a 2km
is on average 35. Calculate the mean stretch of motorway in the last year.
and standard deviation for the number Calculate the mean and standard
of worms in: deviation for the number of accidents in:
a. 1 m2. a. 1 year.
b. 5 m2. b. 1 week.
c. 10 m2. c. 1 month.
2. The number of detentions given out at a 4. The number of sandwiches that I eat for
school is approximately 20 per day. lunch is on average 2.5. Calculate the
Calculate the mean and standard mean and standard deviation for the
deviation for the number of detentions number of sandwiches I eat in:
in: a. 1 day.
a. 1 day. b. 1 week (7 days).
b. 1 week (5 days). c. 1 month (30 days).
c. 1 term (10 weeks).
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Exercise 8.4 Answers
1a. μ = 35, σ = 5.92 (3sf) 3a. μ = 10, σ = 3.16 (3sf)
1b. μ = 175, σ = 13.2 (3sf) 3b. μ = 0.192 (3sf), σ = 0.439 (3sf)
1c. μ = 350, σ = 18.7 (3sf) 3c. μ = 0.833 (3sf), σ = 0.913 (3sf)

2a. μ = 20, σ = 4.47 (3sf) 4a. μ = 2.5, σ = 1.58 (3sf)

2b. μ = 100, σ = 10 (3sf) 4b. μ = 17.5, σ = 4.18 (3sf)
2c. μ = 1000, σ = 31.6 (3sf) 4c. μ = 75, σ = 8.66 (3sf)
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Part 8.5: Working Backwards
Again, just like with the binomial, sometimes we are given the ‘answer’ and need to work
x −λ
λ e
backwards to find certain other numbers using the formula, P ( X=x ) = . Let’s look at the
x!
most common type of question:

Example
A bank knows the likelihood of them having one or more customers arrive in a minute is 0.95.
What is the mean number of customers arriving at the bank per minute?

Answer
The first thing we need to do is find the probability that x = 0 which in this case is 0.05. If we
x −λ 0 −λ
put this into the formula P ( X=x ) =
λ e λ e −λ
= =e =0.05 … if we put this last part (e− λ=0.05)
x! 0!
into solver we can find out that x = 2.9957 which means the average number of customers is
likely to be 3 per minute.

Sometimes we will need to work out questions with different parameters (i.e. when x is not
zero). If this comes about you need to work out what you are trying to find out, put the
numbers into the formula (or the calculator) and find the solution.

Note: sometimes the easiest way to solve this is just by trial and error in the calculator.

Exercise 8.5
1. The average likelihood of having 1 or 3. A company claims that the likelihood of
more defective products on a production seeing at least one dolphin on its 1 day
line in an hour is 0.993. What is the dolphin sightseeing cruise is 99.9%.
mean number of defective products What is the average number of dolphins
produced per hour? seen on the 1 day cruise?
2. A real-estate agent knows that on 4.98% 4. The probability a m2 of carpet has a
of weeks he will sell no houses. What is certain number of faults is 0.0437. If
the average number of houses that he there are 0.85 faults per m2 on average,
will sell in one year? what is the certain number?
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Exercise 8.5 Answers
1. 4.96 defective 2. 3 per week, 3. 6.9 dolphins 4. 3 faults
products so 156 per
year
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Part 8.6: Assumptions
When you are asked to justify the use of the Poisson distribution you use the acronym RIPS. If
we look at the example of my car breaking down:
Random – the occurrence of breakdowns is random.
Independent – the occurrence of breakdowns is independent from other breakdowns.
Proportional – the occurrence of breakdowns is proportional to the amount of time.
Simultaneous – breakdowns cannot occur at the same time.
It is super important that you put all of the sections in context, rather than just stating what
each letter means.
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Part 8.7: Mixed Questions
1. The number of dishes dropped by a waiter during his 100 hours training is 4.
a. Choose a distribution to model this situation and justify your choice.
b. Calculate the probability:
i. During the next hour he drops exactly one dish.
ii. During the next three hours he drops no dishes.
iii. In his next 100 hours of working he will drop no dishes. State whether the
assumptions you made doing this calculation are valid.
c. In what period of time will the probability of him dropping one dish be exactly 0.1?
2. The number of gumdrops in a 2 L tub of ice cream is on average 40.
a. Choose a distribution to model this situation and justify your choice.
b. Calculate the probability:
i. That in a 300 mL bowl there are less than 3 gumdrops.
ii. That in five 2 L tubs there are more than 220 gumdrops.
iii. That a 2 L tub of ice cream has between 30 and 50 gumdrops (inclusive) in it.
c. If the probability of getting one or more gum drops in a scoop is 0.135 what is the
volume of a scoop?
3. A pizza company has just purchased a new machine which puts the toppings on its pizza. It
is programmed to put on average 20 pieces of pepperoni on each pizza.
a. Choose a distribution to model this situation and justify your choice.
b. Calculate the probability:
i. There are less than 20 slices of peperoni on a pizza.
ii. 25 or more slices on a pizza.
iii. Between 18 and 20 slices (inclusive) on a pizza.
c. In a batch of 30 pizzas how many would you expect to be on the pizza with the most
pieces?
4. The average number of customers that complain about the service in a store is 5 per day.
a. Choose a distribution to model this situation and justify your choice.
b. What is the probability that less than 20 customers complain in a week (7 days)?
c. The manager wants to make it so that on 10% of days there are no customer
complaints. How many complaints would there be on average per day if this is the
case?
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Part 8.7 Answers
1a. A Poisson distribution is best. This is 3a. A Poisson distribution is best. This is
because: because:
 The occurrence of droppages are  The occurrence of pieces of pepperoni is
Random Random
 The occurrence of one droppage is  The occurrence of one piece of
Independent from the other droppages pepperoni is Independent from the other
 The number of droppages is pieces of pepperoni
Proportional to the amount of time  The number of pieces of pepperoni is
spent waitering Proportional to the size / number of
 Two droppages cannot occur pizzas
Simultaneously.  Two pieces of pepperoni cannot be in
1bi. 0.0384 (3sf) the same place (cannot occur
1bii. 0.887 (3sf) Simultaneously).
1biii. 0.0183 (3sf). As the waiter gets more 3bi. 0.470 (3sf)
experienced you’d expect them to drop less 3bii. 0.157 (3sf)
dishes, so the independent assumption 3biii. 0.262 (3sf).
probably isn’t valid, neither is the 3c. 28
proportional.
1c. mean = 3.577 (4sf) so 89.4 hours (3sf) 4a. A Poisson distribution is best. This is
because:
2a. A Poisson distribution is best. This is  The occurrence of complaints is Random
because:  The occurrence of a complaint is
 The occurrence of gumdrops is Random Independent from the complaints
 The occurrence of one gumdrops is  The number of complaints is
Independent from the other gumdrops Proportional to the amount of time
 The number of gumdrops is Proportional  Two complaints cannot occur
to the amount of ice-cream. Simultaneously.
 Two gumdrops cannot be in the same 4b. 0.00232 (3sf)
place (cannot occur Simultaneously). 4c. 2.30 (3sf) complaints.
2bi. 0.0620 (3sf)
2bii. 0.0753 (3sf)
2biii. 0.904 (3sf)
2c. mean = 0.145 (3sf), so volume = 7.25
mL
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Part 9: Looking at Graphs

We are sometimes given graphs and ask to choose what distribution best fits. There are a few
things that we can do to check. Below we will look at a few examples.

Example (Normal) Example (Rectangular)

The normal distribution is a continuous The rectangular distribution is also a

distribution and therefore should be continuous distribution and therefore
represented by a histogram. It should be should be represented by a histogram. It
reasonably even on both sides of the should be relatively even along, and then
centre, i.e. symmetrical, and generally just suddenly stop. The two parameters
follow a bell shape with most of the data in that are needed are the minimum (in this
the centre and less data towards the edge. case 10) and the maximum (in this case
The two parameters we estimate are the 100)
mean and the standard deviation.
To estimate the mean look for where the
centre of the data is, and if the bars are
taller to the right or the left move your
mean just slightly in that direction. For
example, the graph above has a mean of
approximately 48.
To estimate the standard deviation look for
the smallest data point (in this case 20) and
the largest data point (in this cast 80, as
the data between 80 and 85 is too small to
count) and then divide by 6. So in this case
I would estimate the standard deviation to
be 10 (60 ÷ 6).
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Example (Triangular) Example (Binomial)

The triangular distribution is also a The binomial distribution is a discrete

continuous distribution and therefore distribution and therefore it should be
should be represented by a histogram. The represented by a bar graph (rather than a
triangular distribution is most useful when histogram).
the data is skewed in one direction or the
other and we need to work out three Example (Poisson)
parameters, the minimum, the maximum
and the most likely. Often the easiest way
to do this is to draw a triangle over the data
to see where these points occur. For
example:

The Poisson distribution is a discrete

distribution and therefore it should also be
represented by a bar graph (rather than a
histogram).

You want the lines of the triangle to evenly As you may have noticed these two graphs
cut the open space and the bars as shown are very similar to each other. The big
above. This would give us a minimum value difference between a binomial distribution
of 12 (a), a maximum value of 102 (b) and and a Poisson distribution is a binomial has
a most likely value of 78 (c). a fixed number of trials, so will therefore
stop after a certain point, in the graph
above you can see that there is no more
data after 15, so there must be 15 trials,
however the easiest way to work what type
of distribution it is will be to look at the
context of the question that will be given
with it.
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Part 9.1: Calculate the Mean for a Binomial or Poisson Distribution
The only other thing that you may need to do is calculate the mean. If
we use the example on the right which is a binomial distribution, the
number of trials is 4, and to work out the mean we can use it like a
discrete variable.
μ=0× 0.25+1 ×0.35+ 2× 0.25+3 ×0.1+ 4 ×0.05=1.35
For the binomial distribution we also know that μ=nπ .
If n = 4 and µ = 1.35 so to work out π we get π = 1.35 ÷ 4 = 0.3375

The other thing we sometimes might need to

do is work out the mean for a Poisson
distribution.
To do this, because the Poisson keeps going on forever we need to
0 −λ
λ e −λ
use the formula P ( X=0 )= =e =0.15.
0!

If we solve e− λ=0.15 either using either algebra or equation mode on

the calculator we get λ = 1.897 (4sf)
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Part 9.2: Mixed Questions
For each of the graphs below state what distribution you think fits it best and give the
parameters for it.
Give reasons for your choice of distribution.

1. This is the amount of money earnt by a 5. The distribution on

shop in an hour. the right is the
number of fish per
m2 of water.

6. The distribution on
the right has a fixed
2. This is the length of leaves taken off a
number of trials of 6.
tree.

7.
The distribution on the
right is for the
mean number of
3. This is the amount of time it takes to get worms per m2 of
a transaction completed at the bank. garden.

4. This is the number of people that turn

up to a shop in an hour.
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Part 9.2 Answers
1. A triangular distribution would be best as the data is continuous and there is a very clear
minimum and maximum, and the data is skewed to the right. The parameters would be
minimum (a) is 4, maximum (b) is 34 and the modal value (c) would be 9.

2. A normal distribution would be best as the data is continuous and there is a very clear bell
shape. The mean would be 22 and the standard deviation would be approximately 3
(20/6).

3. A rectangular distribution would be best as the data is continuous and the data has a very
clear minimum and maximum, and is fairly flat in-between. The parameters would be
minimum (a) is 3, maximum (b) is 6.

4. A Poisson distribution is best. This is because:

 The occurrence of people turning up to the shop is Random
 The occurrence of one person turning up to the shop is Independent from the other
people turning up to the shop
 The number of people turning up to the shop is Proportional to the amount of time
 Two people cannot turn up to the shop at exactly the same time (cannot occur
Simultaneously).
The mean for this distribution would be approximately 3.2 (2sf) based off a probability no
one turns up of 0.04

5. A Poisson distribution is best. This is because:

 The occurrence of fish is Random
 The occurrence of one fish is Independent from the other fish
 The number of fish is Proportional to the amount of water
 Two fish cannot be in the same place (cannot occur Simultaneously).
The mean for this distribution would be approximately 3.0 (2sf) based off a probability no
fish of 0.05

6. A binomial distribution is best. This is because we are told there is a fixed number of trials
of 6. So number of trials (n) = 6, mean is 0.25 x 0 + 0.35 x 1 + 0.2 x 2 + 0.1 x 3 + 0.05 x
4 + 0.05 x 5 = 1.5
Therefore the probability for each event (π) is 1.5/6 = 0.25

7. A Poisson distribution is best. This is because:

 The occurrence of worms is Random
 The occurrence of one worm is Independent from the other worms
 The number of worms is Proportional to the amount of garden
 Two worms cannot be in the same place (cannot occur Simultaneously).
The mean for this distribution would be approximately 2.3 (2sf) based off a probability no
worms of 0.1

Note: for excellence we would expect to see some calculations based on these parameters to
back up how well the model fits the distribution.