Chapter 4 S
Chapter 4 S
Management
Reliability
4-1
Learning Objectives
Define reliability
Perform simple reliability computations
Explain the term availability and perform
simple calculations
Reliability
Reliability
The ability of a product, part, or system to perform
its intended function under a prescribed set of
conditions
Reliability is expressed as a probability:
The probability that the product or system will function
when activated
The probability that the product or system will function
for a given length of time
Reliability – When Activated
Finding the probability under the
assumption that the system consists of a
number of independent components
Requires the use of probabilities for
independent events
Independent event
Events whose occurrence or non-occurrence do not
influence one another
Reliability – When Activated
(cont.)
Rule 1
If two or more events are independent and
success is defined as the probability that all of
the events occur, then the probability of success
is equal to the product of the probabilities of the
events
Example – Rule 1
A machine has two buttons. In order for the
machine to function, both buttons must
work. One button has a probability of
working of .95, and the second button has a
probability of working of .88.
Button 1 Button 2
.95 .88
P(Machine Works) P(Button 1 Works) P(Button 2 Works)
.95 .88
.836
Reliability – When Activated
(cont.)
Though individual system components may
have high reliabilities, the system’s
reliability may be considerably lower
because all components that are in series
must function
One way to enhance reliability is to utilize
redundancy
Redundancy
The use of backup components to increase reliability
Reliability - When Activated
(cont.)
Rule 2
If two events are independent and success is
defined as the probability that at least one of
the events will occur, the probability of success
is equal to the probability of either one plus
1.00 minus that probability multiplied by the
other probability
Generator
.90
.9531
Reliability – Over Time
In this case, reliabilities are determined
relative to a specified length of time
This is a common approach to viewing
reliability when establishing warranty periods
The Bathtub Curve
Distribution and Length of Phase
To properly identify the distribution and
length of each phase requires collecting and
analyzing historical data
The mean time between failures (MTBF) in
the infant mortality phase can often be
modeled using the negative exponential
distribution
Exponential Distribution
Exponential Distribution -
Formulae
P(no failure before T ) e T / MTBF
where
e 2.7183...
T Length of service before failure
MTBF Mean time between failures
Example – Exponential
Distribution
A light bulb manufacturer has determined that its
150 watt bulbs have an exponentially distributed
mean time between failures of 2,000 hours. What
is the probability that one of these bulbs will fail
before 2,000 hours have passed?
P(failure before 2,000) 1 e2000/ 2000
e-2000/2000 = e-1
From Table 4S.1, e-1 = .3679
So, the probability one of these bulbs will fail before 2,000 hours is 1
- .3679 = .6321
Normal Distribution
Sometimes, failures due to wear-out can be
modeled using the normal distribution