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Chapter 4 S

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Chapter 4 S

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Production and Operations

Management

Reliability

4-1
Learning Objectives
 Define reliability
 Perform simple reliability computations
 Explain the term availability and perform
simple calculations
Reliability
 Reliability
 The ability of a product, part, or system to perform
its intended function under a prescribed set of
conditions
 Reliability is expressed as a probability:
 The probability that the product or system will function
when activated
 The probability that the product or system will function
for a given length of time
Reliability – When Activated
 Finding the probability under the
assumption that the system consists of a
number of independent components
 Requires the use of probabilities for
independent events
 Independent event
 Events whose occurrence or non-occurrence do not
influence one another
Reliability – When Activated
(cont.)
 Rule 1
 If two or more events are independent and
success is defined as the probability that all of
the events occur, then the probability of success
is equal to the product of the probabilities of the
events
Example – Rule 1
 A machine has two buttons. In order for the
machine to function, both buttons must
work. One button has a probability of
working of .95, and the second button has a
probability of working of .88.
Button 1 Button 2
.95 .88
P(Machine Works)  P(Button 1 Works)  P(Button 2 Works)
 .95  .88
 .836
Reliability – When Activated
(cont.)
 Though individual system components may
have high reliabilities, the system’s
reliability may be considerably lower
because all components that are in series
must function
 One way to enhance reliability is to utilize
redundancy
 Redundancy
 The use of backup components to increase reliability
Reliability - When Activated
(cont.)
 Rule 2
 If two events are independent and success is
defined as the probability that at least one of
the events will occur, the probability of success
is equal to the probability of either one plus
1.00 minus that probability multiplied by the
other probability
Generator
.90

Example – Rule 2 Power Co.


.97
 A restaurant located in area that has
frequent power outages has a generator to
run its refrigeration equipment in case of a
power failure. The local power company
has a reliability of .97, and the generator has
a reliability of .90. The probability that the
restaurant will have power is
P(Power)  P(Power Co.)  (1 - P(Power Co.))  P(Generator)
 .97  (1 - .97)(.90)
 .997
Reliability – When Activated
(cont.)
 Rule 3
 If two or more events are involved and success
is defined as the probability that at least one of
them occurs, the probability of success is 1 -
P(all fail)
Calc. 3
.75

Example – Rule 3 Calc. 2


.80

 A student takes three calculators (with Calc. 1


reliabilities of .85, .80, and .75) to her .85

exam. Only one of them needs to


function for her to be able to finish the
exam. What is the probability that she
will have a functioning calculator to
use when taking her exam?
P(any Calc.)  1  [(1 - P(Calc.1)  (1  P(Calc. 2)  (1  P(Calc. 3)]
 1  [(1 - .85)(1 - .80)(1 - .75)]
 .9925
What Is This System’s
Reliability?
.75

.80 .80 .70

.95 .85 .90

.99 .9925 .97

.9531
Reliability – Over Time
 In this case, reliabilities are determined
relative to a specified length of time
 This is a common approach to viewing
reliability when establishing warranty periods
The Bathtub Curve
Distribution and Length of Phase
 To properly identify the distribution and
length of each phase requires collecting and
analyzing historical data
 The mean time between failures (MTBF) in
the infant mortality phase can often be
modeled using the negative exponential
distribution
Exponential Distribution
Exponential Distribution -
Formulae
P(no failure before T )  e T / MTBF
where
e  2.7183...
T  Length of service before failure
MTBF  Mean time between failures
Example – Exponential
Distribution
 A light bulb manufacturer has determined that its
150 watt bulbs have an exponentially distributed
mean time between failures of 2,000 hours. What
is the probability that one of these bulbs will fail
before 2,000 hours have passed?
P(failure before 2,000)  1  e2000/ 2000
e-2000/2000 = e-1
From Table 4S.1, e-1 = .3679
So, the probability one of these bulbs will fail before 2,000 hours is 1
- .3679 = .6321
Normal Distribution
 Sometimes, failures due to wear-out can be
modeled using the normal distribution

T  Mean wear - out time


z
Standard deviation of wear - out time
Availability
 Availability
 The fraction of time a piece of equipment is
expected to be available for operation
MTBF
Availabili ty 
MTBF  MTR
where
MTBF  Mean time between failures
MTR  Mean time to repair
Example – Availability
 John Q. Student uses a laptop at school. His
laptop operates 30 weeks on average
between failures. It takes 1.5 weeks, on
average, to put his laptop back into service.
What is the laptop’s availability?
MTBF
Availabili ty 
MTBF  MTR
30

30  1.5
 .9524

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