Probability and Statistics

Class and Homework exercises

Chapter 4.

Week 1

Provide a reasonable description of the sample space for each of the random
experiments in the following exercises 1,2 and 3

1. Each of four transmitted bits is classifified as either in error or not in error.

2. The number of hits (views) is recorded at a high-volumeWeb site in a day.

3. In the final inspection of electronic power supplies, either units pass or three
types of nonconformities might occur: functional, minor, or cosmetic. Three
units are inspected.
4. Disks of polycarbonate plastic from a supplier are analyzed for scratch and
shock resistance. The results from 100 disks are summarized here:

Let A denote the event that a disk has high shock resistance, and let B denote
the event that a disk has high scratch resistance. Determine the number of disks
in A  B, A , and A  B.

5. The article “Term Efficacy of Ribavirin Plus Interferon Alfa in the

Treatment of Chronic Hepatitis C,” , considered the effect of two treatments
and a control for treatment of hepatitis C. The following table provides the total
patients in each group and the number that showed a complete (positive)
response after 24 weeks of treatment.
Let A denote the event that the patient was treated with ribavirin plus interferon
alfa, and let B denote the event that the response was complete. Determine the
number of patients in each of the following events.

(a) A (b) A  B (c) A  B (d) A  B

6. A batch of 140 semiconductor chips is inspected by choosing a sample of 5

chips. Assume 10 of the chips do not conform to customer requirements.

(a) How many different samples are possible?

(b) How many samples of five contain exactly one nonconforming chip?
(c) How many samples of five contain at least one nonconforming chip?

7. Samples of emissions from three suppliers are classified for conformance to air-
quality specifications. The results from 100 samples are summarized as follows:

Let A denote the event that a sample is from supplier 1, and let B denote the event that
a sample conforms to specifications. If a sample is selected at random, determine the
following probabilities:
(a) P(A) (b) P(B) (c) P( A ) (d) P(AB) (e) P(AB)
(f) P( A B)

8. If you make a sale to Able, the probability is 0.60 that you will also make a sale to
Baker. If you fail to make a sale to Able, the probability is 0.10 that you will make a
sale to Baker anyway. The probability is 0.30 that you will make a sale to Able. What
is the probability that you will make a sale to Baker?

9. On a Festival Cruise Line cruise to the Bahamas, guests on the ship have the option
of getting off for the day at two ports, Freeport and Nassau. Of all the guests on the
ship, 60% get off in Freeport and 70% get off in Nassau. Moreover, of those who get
off in Freeport, 90% also get off in Nassau. What proportion of the ship’s guests:

a. Get off at both ports?

b. Get off at most at one of the two?
c. Get off at neither?
10. A state claims that 20% of the cards in its instant scratchand-win game are
winners (mostly of break-even prizes—just another card). Assuming independence, if
three tickets are selected at random, what is the probability that

a. All three are winners?

b. Exactly one is a winner?
c. At least one is a winner?

Week 2 (chapter 4 cont)

11. The analysis of results from a leaf transmutation experiment (turning a leaf into a
petal) is summarized by type of transformation completed:

(a) If a leaf completes the color transformation, what is the probability that it will
complete the textural transformation?
(b) If a leaf does not complete the textural transformation, what is the probability it
will complete the color transformation?

12. A machine runs properly 80% of the time but, to ensure product quality, samples
of its output are checked at regular intervals. When the machine is running properly,
the probability is 0.90 that the sample will be good. When it is not running properly,
the probability is only 0.10 that the sample will be good. If a sample is taken and is
good, what is the probability that the machine is running properly?

13. A department store reports that 30% of its customer transactions are in cash, 20%
are by check, and the rest are by credit card. 20% of the cash transactions, 90% of the
check transactions, and 60% of the credit card transactions are for more than $75. A
customer has just made a $125 purchase. What is the probability that she paid cash?

14. The probability that a customer’s order is not shipped on time is 0.05. A particular
customer places three
orders, and the orders are placed far enough apart in time that they can be
considered to be independent events.
(a) What is the probability that all are shipped on time?
(b) What is the probability that exactly one is not shipped on time?
(c) What is the probability that two or more orders are not shipped on time?
Chapter 5

1. Let X be a discrete random variable with the following probability distribution

x 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25

f(x) 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1

Find
a. P(X≥ 2)
b. P(X < 1.65)
c. P(X = 1.5)
d. P(X< 1.3 or X > 2.1)

2. In a semiconductor manufacturing process, three wafers from a lot are tested. Each
wafer is classifified as pass or fail. Assume that the probability that a wafer passes the
test is 0.8 and that wafers are independent. Determine the probability mass function
f(x) of the number of wafers from a lot that pass the test.

3. Marketing estimates that a new instrument for the analysis of soil samples will be
very successful, moderately successful, or unsuccessful with probabilities 0.3, 0.6,
and 0.1, respectively. The yearly revenue associated with a very successful,
moderately successful, or unsuccessful product is $10 million, $5 million, and $1
million, respectively. Let the random variable X denote the yearly revenue of the
product. Determine the probability mass function f(x) of X.

Week 3
1. Consider a binomial random variable X with p = 0.01 and n = 10. Compute the
following probabilities.

2. The airline reservation system has phone lines that are occupied 40% of the time.
Suppose that the events that the lines are occupied on successive calls are independent.
Furthermore, sssume that 10 calls are placed to the airline.
a. What is the probability that for exactly three calls, the lines are occupied?
b. What is the probability that for at least one call, the lines are not occupied?
c. What is the expected number of calls in which the lines
are all occupied?

3. Denote X the number of telephone calls that arrive at a phone exchange. The
variable X is often modeled as a Poisson random variable. Suppose that there are 10
calls per hour on the average. Copumte the following probabilities:
a. exactly 5 calls in one hour
b. 3 or fewer calls in one hour
c. exactly 15 calls in two hours
d. exactly 5 calls in 30 minutes

4. The number of surface flaws in plastic panels used in the interior of automobiles
has a Poisson distribution with a mean of 0.05 flaw per square foot of plastic panel.
Assume that an automobile interior contains 10 square feet of plastic panel.
a. What is the probability that there are no surface flaws in
an auto’s interior?
b. If 10 cars are sold to a rental company, what is the prob
ability that none of the 10 cars has any surface flaws?
c. If 10 cars are sold to a rental company, what is the probability that at most 1 car
has any surface flaws?

5. Let X be a normally distributed with a mean of 10 and a standard deviation of 2.

Determine x such that:
a. P(X > x) = 0.5
b. P(X > x) = 0.95
c. P(x < X < 10) = 0.2
d. P(−x < X − 10 < x) = 0.95
e. P(−x < X − 10 < x) = 0.99

6. The time until recharge for a battery in a laptop computer under common
conditions is normally distributed with a mean of 260 minutes and a standard
deviation of 50 minutes.
a. What is the probability that a battery lasts more than four hours?
b. What are the quartiles (the 25% and 75% values) of battery life?
c. What value of life in minutes is exceeded with 95%
probability?

Statistics
1. The female students in an undergraduate economics core course at University self
reported their heights to the nearest inch. The data is given as follow.

62 64 61 67 65 68 61 65 60 65 64 63 59
68 64 66 68 69 65 67 62 66 68 67 66 65
69 65 69 65 67 67 65 63 64 67 65

a) Calculate the sample mean, the sample standard deviation, and the sample median
of height.
b) Find mode and find skewness. Find percentile 20% and 80%
c) Find range, cofficient of variation
Chapter 7+8

1. A computer software package calculated some numerical summaries of a sample of

data. The results are displayed here:
Sum of
Variable N Mean SE( X ) StDev Variance Sum Squares
x ? ? 2.05 10.25 ? 3761.70 ?
a. Fill in the missing quantities.
b. What is the estimate of the mean of the population from which this sample was
drawn?

2. A random sample has been taken from a normal distribution and from the sample
data we obtain the following confidence intervals :
(38.02, 61.98) and (39.95, 60.05)
a. What is the value of the sample mean?
b. One of these intervals is a 95% confidence interval and the other is a 90%
confidence interval. Which one is the 95% confidence interval and why?

3. A civil engineer is analyzing the compressive strength of concrete. Compressive

strength is normally distributed with variance 1000 (psi)2. A random sample of 12
specimens has a mean compressive strength of x = 3250 psi.
a. Construct a 95% two-sided confifidence interval on mean compressive strength.
b. Construct a 99% two-sided confifidence interval on mean compressive strength.
Compare the width of this confifidence interval with the width of the one found in
part (a).
c. Suppose that it is desired to estimate the compressive strength with an error that is
less than 15 psi at 99% confifidence. What sample size is required?
4. The 2008 presidential election exit polls from the critical state of California
provided the following results. The exit polls had 2020 respondents, 768 of whom
were college graduates. Of the college graduates, 412 voted for Obama.
a. Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of college graduates in
California who voted for Obama.
b. Calculate a 95% lower confidence bound for the proportion of college graduates in
California who voted for Obama.

5. The following data represent the number of drinks sold from a vending machine on
a sample of 20 days:
56, 44, 53, 40, 65, 39, 36, 41, 47, 55, 51, 50, 72, 45, 69, 38, 40, 51, 47, 53
(a) Determine a 95 percent confidence interval estimate of the mean number of drinks
sold daily.
(b) Repeat part (a) for a 90 percent confidence interval.

Chapter 9

1. In a certain chemical process, it is very important that a particular solution that is to

be used as a reactant have a pH of exactly 8.20. A method for determining pH that is
available for solutions of this type is known to give measurements that are normally
distributed with a mean equal to the actual pH and with a standard deviation of .02.
Suppose 10 independent measurements yielded the following pH values:

8.18 8.17
8.16 8.15
8.17 8.21
8.22 8.16
8.19 8.18

a) What conclusion can be drawn at the α = .10 level of significance?

b) What about at the α = .05 level of significance?
2. The weights of salmon grown at a commercial hatchery are normally distributed
with a standard deviation of 1.2 pounds. The hatchery claims that the mean weight of
this year’s crop is at least 7.6 pounds. Suppose a random sample of 16 fish yielded an
average weight of 7.2 pounds. Is this strong enough evidence to reject the hatchery’s
claims at the
(a) 5 percent level of significance;
(b) 1 percent level of significance?
(c) What is the p-value?

3. A company supplies plastic sheets for industrial use. A new type of plastic has been
produced and the company would like to claim that the average stress resistance of
this new product is at least 30.0, where stress resistance is measured in pounds per
square inch (psi) necessary to crack the sheet. The following random sample was
drawn off the production line. Based on this sample, would the claim clearly be
unjustified?
30.1 32.7 22.5 27.5
27.7 29.8 28.9 31.4
31.2 24.3 26.4 22.8
29.1 33.4 32.5 21.7
Assume normality and use the 5 percent level of significance.

4. Historical data indicate that 4 percent of the components produced at a certain

manufacturing facility are defective. A particularly acrimonious labor dispute has
recently been concluded, and management is curious about whether it will result in
any change in this figure of 4 percent. If a random sample of 500 items indicated 16
defectives
(3.2 percent), is this significant evidence, at the 5 percent level of significance, to
conclude that a change has occurred?

5. Suppose that in past years the average price per square foot for warehouses in the
United States has been $32.28. A national real-estate investor wants to determine
whether that figure has changed now. The investor hires a business analyst who
randomly samples 49 warehouses that are for sale across the United States and finds
that the mean price per square foot is $31.67, with a sample standard deviation of
$1.29. Assume that prices of warehouse footage are normally distributed in the
population. If the analyst uses a 5% level of significance, what statistical conclusion
can be reached? What are the hypotheses?

6. Independent Insurance Agents of America conducted a survey of insurance

consumers and discovered that 48% of them always reread their insurance policies,
29% sometimes do, 16% rarely do, and 7% never do. Suppose a large insurance
company invests considerable time and money in rewriting policies so that they will
be more attractive and easy to read and understand. After using the new policies for a
year, company managers want to determine whether rewriting the policies
significantly changed the proportion of policyholders who always reread their
insurance policy. They contact 380 of the company’s insurance consumers who
purchased a policy in the past year and ask them whether they always reread their
insurance policies. One hundred and sixty-four respond that they do. Use a 1% level
of significance to test the hypothesis.

7. A large manufacturing company investigated the service it received from suppliers

and discovered that, in the past, 32% of all materials shipments were received late.
However, the company recently installed a just-in-time system in which suppliers are
linked more closely to the manufacturing process. A random sample of 118 deliveries
since the just-in-time system was installed reveals that 22 deliveries were late. Use
this sample information to test whether the proportion of late deliveries was reduced
significantly. Let α = .05.

8. A study by Hewitt Associates showed that 79% of companies offer employees

flexible scheduling. Suppose a business analyst believes that in accounting firms this
figure is lower. The analyst randomly selects 415 accounting firms and through
interviews determines that 303 of these firms have flexible scheduling. With a 1%
level of significance, does the test show enough evidence to conclude that a
significantly lower proportion of accounting firms offer employees flexible
scheduling?