Urbangrowthtrajectory India
Urbangrowthtrajectory India
Urbangrowthtrajectory India
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Demography India
A Journal of Indian Association of Study of Population
Journal Homepage: https://demographyindia.iasp.ac.in/
Abstract
Urbanization is a complex process and a significant phenomenon
that contributes to the development of countries worldwide. This
study endeavors to examine the growth trajectory of urban centers
across subdivisions of India and to explore the regional variations
in urban and city growth using the information provided by the
Census of India. The annual exponential growth method has been
employed to examine the growth dynamics of urban centers. In the
last few decades, India has experienced steady urban growth from
216 million in 1991 to 377 million in 2011, with a slowing growth
rate. Urban centers show distinctive characteristics, with an
increasing share of stabilizing towns, decreasing growing towns,
Keywords and the emergence of declining towns. The growth trajectory
seemingly shifting backwards indicates the slow growth of urban
Growth trajectory, centers, especially among small and medium-sized towns.
regional variation, Significant inequality has been found in terms of the concentration
urbanization, urban of urban centers across the regions. While urban growth and the
transition, urban
level of urbanization significantly control the growth and
policy
distribution of urban centers in India. Cities are considered
engines of growth as they significantly contribute to the economy.
However, some of these engines are struggling for their survival
as population growth slows down or declines. The study
highlights the importance of understanding changing growth
characteristics and linkages between urbanization, urban growth,
and population growth in towns and cities. It calls for a focus on
empowering smaller urban units with adequate infrastructure and
economic opportunities to achieve balanced growth across various
regions and reduce development inequalities. A holistic and
decentralized urban planning approach is suggested to
accommodate the needs of urban inhabitants and foster
sustainable urban development.
* Corresponding author
1Department of Migration and Urban Studies, International Institute for Population Sciences, India. Email:
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Sarif and Roy
decadal growth rate of the urban population has However, there has been a rapid increase in the
been steadily declining (Table 1). Urban growth number of census towns in the last two censuses
seemed to slow down even with the faster conducted in 2001 and 2011 (Figure 1). The total
economic growth during the 2000s (Bhagat, number of census towns has increased from 346
2018). in 1991 to 3890 in 2011, with the majority of towns
being smaller, and newly classified as urban
It is evident that the emergence and growth of
(Figure 1). However, a steady increase in
towns and cities drive urbanization in India.
statutory towns has been observed, rising from
Thus, sustaining the growth of urban centers is
2145 to 4045 from 1961-2011. The increase in the
very important for maintaining the tempo of
number of towns in categories like Class I, Class
urbanization. Evidence shows that the number of
II, and Class III has been noticeable, whereas the
towns and cities in India has rapidly grown from
increase in smaller size classes was not as
1827 in 1901 to 7935 in 2011, with the highest
apparent.
addition of towns occurring in the last decade
from 2001 to 2011. Almost three thousand new The first four class categories (cities and medium-
towns were added during this period (Kumar, sized towns) have demonstrated consistent
2015; Roy et al., 2023). population growth, albeit with a declining
growth rate trend. Specifically, in 1961, the
Population growth in towns and cities in India
population growth rate in class I cities was 5.8%
India's urbanization is characterized by a top-
(Figure 2), which decreased to 1.1% in 2011. In
heavy distribution of population, with a
contrast, the population growth rate in class V
concentration of 70% residing in class I cities. In
and class VI categories is not consistent and
2011, the total urban population was 377 million,
exhibits significant fluctuations. However, in the
of which 264 million was living in class I cities,
last census, class V and class VI towns recorded
and the remaining 113 million resided in the
the highest growth rates of 7.2% and 9.3%,
other five size-class categories. Notably, there
respectively, in 2011 (Figure 2). The increase in
was a significant increase in population size in
growth rate is probably due to the addition of
the class I category over time. In 1961, the
new census towns in 2011.
population of class I cities was 41 million, which
rose to 264 million by 2011. While class II and Urban growth trajectory in India
class III cities also witnessed an increase in Over the past few decades, India has achieved
population over time, the population of class V steady urban growth in the last century;
and class VI cities remained minimal, with however, it has experienced a falling growth rate
occasional fluctuations (Roy et al., 2023). since 1981 (Table 1). The urban growth rate fell
from 3.7% in 1981 to 2.8% in 2011. The share of
As mentioned earlier, towns and cities are
growing towns followed a similar trend with the
broadly classified into two categories: census
urban growth rate, dropping from 75% to 26%
towns and statutory towns. One is based on the
during 1981-2011. Furthermore, the share of
administration unit and the other is based on
stabilizing towns has increased rapidly since
socio-demographic characteristics. Statutory
1981. However, a noticeable change occurred
towns are major urban units where an urban local
with an increase in the share of declining towns
body provides all urban facilities and services.
in the recent decade. In 2011 more than 11% of
On the other hand, census towns are classified as
towns (634 urban centers) experienced negative
urban areas based on certain criteria, such as
population growth.
population size, occupational structure, and
population density given by the Census of India. Overall, the growth of towns and cities has
However, census towns do not have a local self- slowed down, as can be observed in Figure 3,
government structure or administrative powers. where the growth distribution of towns has
In India, the majority of towns were statutory shrunk or compressed to low growth rate over
towns in the past, with only a few census towns. the years. In earlier decades (1961-81), the city
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Demography India Vol. 53, No. 1 (2024) ISSN 0970-454X
growth distribution curve was wide and peaked at higher growth rates.
VI
Number of towns
3000 V
IV
III
1500
II
I
0
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Figure 1 Number of Census Town and Statutory Town in India by size class, 1961-2011
10
8
1951-61
6
4 1961-71
2
AEGR
0 1971-81
-2
1981-91
-4
-6 1991-2001
-8
2001-11
-10
Class I Class II Class III Class IV Class V Class VI
Figure 2 Population growth (annual exponential) in different sizes of towns during 1951- 2011
Table 1 Urbanization, urban growth and share of growing, stabilizing and declining towns in India,
1911-2011
Urbanization AEGR Urban Growing towns Stabilizing towns Declining
Year
Level Pop. (% p.a) (> 2.0% p.a) (0- 2.0% p.a) towns (<0.0%p. a)
1901 10.8 - - - -
1911 10.3 0.0 9.1 36.2 54.7
1921 11.2 0.8 16.3 36.0 47.8
1931 12.0 1.8 27.2 58.3 14.5
1941 13.9 2.8 37.1 53.1 9.9
1951 17.3 3.5 43.6 42.5 13.9
1961 18.0 2.3 50.2 43.3 6.6
1971 19.9 3.2 66.2 29.6 4.2
1981 23.1 3.7 75.7 22.5 1.8
1991 25.5 3.1 62.5 33.3 4.1
2001 27.8 2.8 50.4 43.3 6.3
2011 31.1 2.8 27.7 60.8 11.5
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Sarif and Roy
40
35 1961
30 1971
SHARE OF TOWN/CITY
25
1981
20
1991
15
10 2001
5 2011
0
Less -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 5+
than -2
ANNUAL EXPONENTIAL GROWTH RATE
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Demography India Vol. 53, No. 1 (2024) ISSN 0970-454X
50
SHARE OF TOWN/CITIES
40 I
II
30
III
20 IV
V
10
IV
0
-5 and -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 5+
less
ANNUAL EXPONENTIAL GROWTH RATE
Figure 4 The growth trajectory of urban centers by size class category of town/city in India, 2011
64.5
PERCENTAGE OF TOWN/CITY
60.9
57.1
56.9
51.5
38.4
28.7
28.6
26.9
24.9
22.7
14.4
14.3
12.8
12.3
10.2
8.1
Figure 5 Regional variation in the share of declining, stabilizing and growing towns in India, 2011
50 North
45 Central
40
SHARE OF TOWN/CITY (%)
East
35
30 North
25 East
West
20
15
10
5
0
Less -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 5+
than -2 ANNUAL EXPONENTIAL GROWTH RATE (%)
Figure 6 Regional variations in the growth trajectories of towns and cities in India, 2011
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Sarif and Roy
Figure 7 State-wise distribution of towns and cities, level of urbanization and urban growth during
2001-11
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Demography India Vol. 53, No. 1 (2024) ISSN 0970-454X
Figure 8 The relationship between urbanization level and growth rate of different size-class towns in
India, 2011
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Bhubaneswar was part of the programme. and inadequate resources for urban local bodies
(Aijaz, 2007). However, the urban policy in India
During the sixth five-year plan, a major policy on
was never implemented with a holistic approach
urban development launched as Integrated
targeting balanced urban development. Most of
Development of Small and Medium Towns
the urban policies taken by the government
(IDSMT) was launched by the central
addressed the issue in larger urban units,
government in 1979 to regenerate smaller urban
especially in major cities, while smaller towns
centers. Later in the 1980s, urban policy shifted to
were growing on their own. These policies
the decentralization of urban governance and
function at many levels to resolve the issue, but
more power was given to the urban local bodies,
many problems like congestion, cleanliness,
and citizens were involved in the decision-
housing, and drainage must be addressed (Batra,
making process (Shaw, 1996).
2009). Moreover, inadequacy in management,
After the 2000s, the government introduced especially in smaller cities, restricts local
several policies to address the challenges of rapid governments from optimally benefiting from
urbanization, given the growing importance of reform initiatives (Nandi & Gamkhar, 2013).
the urban sector. The Jawaharlal Nehru National Schemes like Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana
Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM) was (PMAY), Mukhya Mantri Awas Yojana (MMAY),
launched in 2005 to provide financial and Providing Urban Amenities in Rural Areas
technical assistance to cities for infrastructure (PURA), and Rurban Mission (RM) were
development. The National Urban Housing and implemented to improve the quality of life in
Habitat Policy was introduced in 2007 to improve villages and other smaller towns. However, the
housing conditions in urban areas. The Atal implementation of these policies was not efficient
Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban due to the lack of experts working on the rural
Transformation (AMRUT) was launched in 2015 sector to develop them at par with urban sector
to provide basic services such as water supply, (Kulkarni et al., 2017). Therefore, issues faced by
sanitation, and transportation to small and the inhabitants in small and medium-sized towns
medium-sized cities, also a GIS bases master plan and villages have not been addressed and
was introduced under AMRUT mission (NITI neglected so far (Datta, 2006). If these policies
Aayog, 2021). were implemented holistically, ensuring the
In recent years, the focus of urban policy has basic amenities, education and health facility,
shifted to creating smart and sustainable cities. road infrastructure, and livelihood generation
The Smart Cities Mission, launched in 2015, aims activities, it might have transformed the rural
to promote sustainable urban development by economy, and uncontrolled migration of the
using technology and innovation. The policy people from villages may automatically stop
emphasizes the creation of livable and (Kulkarni et al., 2017). Even though few attempts
sustainable cities with better quality of life for were made but it failed to achieve its objectives.
citizens. Along with that, other policies like Later these policies were dropped one after
Augmentation Yojana (HRIDAY) and Deen another.
Dayal Antyodaya Yojana – National Urban Conclusion
Livelihoods Mission (DAY – NULM) were In this era of globalization and modernization,
launched (Bhagat, 2014; MoUHA, 2020). people are seeking better facilities, lifestyles, and
Thus, urban policy in India has evolved opportunities to achieve a healthy and better
significantly since independence, with a shift quality of life. Consequently, it is the
from a focus on economic growth to creating government's responsibility to provide urban
livable and sustainable cities. However, there are facilities equally to attain sustainable
still significant challenges that need to be development. The states with low levels of
addressed, including the provision of basic urbanization require attention from the
services and infrastructure, informal settlements, government to expedite the urbanization process
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