MATHS PROJECT

ISC MATHEMATICS
PROJECT

Submitted by: Vidhee More

Submitted by: Ryna Himatsingka
XII-A
XII C

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 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my Maths educator,

Mr.Aman Shahu for giving me the golden opportunity to do this
project and also for his guidance and support.

I would also like to extend my gratitude to my parents and friends for

their constant support which helped me in completing this project
within the given time period.

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 CONTENT

SL. NO. PARTICULARS PAGE NO.

1. TOPIC 4
2. PREREQUISITE KNOWLEDGE 5
3. THEORY 6-16
4. CONCLUSION 17
5. BIBLIOGRAPHY 18

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 TOPIC

Brief discussion on:

a) The Conditional Probability,
b) The Theorem of Total Probability and
c) The Concept of Bayes’Theorem with suitable examples.

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 PREREQUISITE KNOWLEDGE

1. A Simple event an event that describes a single outcome and a

compound event is an event made up of two or more simple events.

2. Mutually Exclusive events are events that cannot occur at the

same time.
For example: When a die is rolled, ‘1’ and ‘2’ cannot occur at the
same time.
If A and B are exclusive then P( A∪B) = 0
Since A∩B is an impossible event. There is no overlap of A and B.

3. Addition law of Exclusive events:

The probability of two mutually exclusive events A or B occurring is
the sum of their individual probabilities.
P(A∪B) = P(A)+P(B).
It is also known as the rule for exclusive events.
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
P(A₁ or A₂ or A₃ or………. An) = P(A₁)+P(A₂)+……….+P(An)
P(A₁∪ A₂ ∪ A₃ ∪…….An) = P(A₁) +P(A₂) + …….. P(An)

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 THEORY
a. CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY:
If A ,B are events associated with a random experiment of a sample space ‘S’
and A occurs after the occurrence of B, then the event of occurrence of A after
B has occurred is called conditional probability. It is denoted by A/B. Similarly,
we define B/A.
A/B B/A
↑ ↑ ↑ ↑
A occurs First B occurs B occurs First A
after after occurrence
occurrence of A
of B

Conditional Probability is used to describe the situation when the probability of

an event is dependent on the outcome of another event.

Formula to evaluate P(A/B)

Let A and B be any events, not necessarily from the same experiments, then
P(A/B) means probability that A occurs given that B has already occurred.
%('∩))
P(A/B) = ; P(B) ≠ 0.
%())

%('∩))
P(B/A) = ; P(A) ≠ 0
%())

NOTE:

%('∩+) %(')
(i) P(A/S) = = = P(A);
%(+) ,

S represents the sample space.

%('∩') %(')
P(A/A) = = = 1;
%(') %(')

%(+∩') %(')
P(S/A) = = =1;
%(') %(')

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(ii)If A and B are mutually exclusive events then

%('∩)) ɸ .
P(A/B) = = = = 0;
%()) %()) %())

%('∩)) .
P(B/A) = = =0
%(') %(')

Properties of Conditional Probability:

(i) The conditional probability of an event A, given that B has occurred lies
between 0 and 1.

%('∩))
P(A/B) =
%())

Also A∩B ⊆ B

⇒n(A∩B) ≤ n(B)

⇒P(A∩B) ≤ P(B)

%('∩))
≤1
%())

Again , P(A∩B) ≥ 0 and P(B) ≥ 0

0 ≤ P(A/B) ≤ 1

(ii) If A and B are two events associated with a random experiment, then
P(A’/B)=1-P(A/B)

P(S/B)=1; where S is the sample space

⇒ P[(A∪A’)/B)] =1

⇒P(A/B) + P(A’/B)=1 [ A and A’ are mutually exclusive]

⇒P(A’/B) = 1- P(A/B)

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EXAMPLES:

1) A couple has 2 children. Find the probability that both are boys, if it is known
that (i) one of them is a boy, (ii) the older child is a boy.

Solution:
Let B and b represent older and younger boy child.
G and g represent older and younger girl child.
Then the sample space(S) = { Bb, Bg, Gg, Gb}
Let A denote the event that both children are boys. Then A = {Bb} and n(a) = 1

(i) Let B denote the event that atleast one of the child is a boy.
Then B = {Bb,Bg, Gb} and n(B)=3.
P(B) = n(B) = 3

n(S) = 4

7('∩)) ,
Also , A∩B ={Bb} ⇒ n(A∩B) = 1 , since P(A∩B) = =
7(+) 8

We have to find P(A/B) which is given by

%('∩)) ,/8 ,
P(A/B) = , P(B) ≠ 0 = =
%()) :/8 :

Hence the required probability is 1/3.

(ii)Let B: The older child is a boy. Then, B = {bb, Bg}

7()) ; ,
⇒n(B) = 2 ⇒ P(B) = = =
7(+) 8 ;

7('∩)) ,
Also , A∩B = {Bb} ⇒n(A∩B) = 1 ∴ P(A∩B) = =
7(+) 8

%('∩)) ,/8 ,
Hence, P(A/B) = = =
%()) ,/; ;

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2) An instructor has a test bank consisting of 300 easy True/False questions,
200 difficult True/False questions, 500 easy multiple choice questions and 400
difficult multiple choice questions. If a question is selected at random from the
test bank, what is the probability that it will be an easy question given that it is a
multiple choice question?

Solution:

Total number of questions, i.e, n(S)= 300+200+500+400=1400

Let E: the event that selected question is an easy question
M: the event that selected question is a multiple choice question
n(E) = 500 + 300 = 800, n(M) = 500 +400 = 900
7(=) >.. 8 7(@) A.. A
P(E) = = = , P(M) = = =
7(+) ,8.. ? 7(+) ,8.. ,8

Number of easy multiple choice questions = 500,i.e, n(E∩M) = 500

7(=∩@) B.. B
∴ P(E∩M) = = =
7(+) ,8.. ,8

%(=∩@) B/,8 B
Required probability = P(E/M) = = =
%(@) A/,8 A

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b. The theorem of total probability
THEOREM-
Let S be the sample space and E1 or E2 …. Enbe ‘n’ mutually exclusive and
exhaustive events associated with a random experiment.
Let A be any event associated with S, i.e which occurs with E1 or E2 or .... or En,
then
P(A) = P(E1). P(A/E1)+ P(E2). P( A/ E2) + .....+ P(En). P(A/En)
PROOF-
Let S be the sample space of a random experiment and E1, E2,.... En be n
mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.
S= E1 U E2 U ..... U En where Ei∩Ej = ɸ for i≠j
Since A is an event of S, i.e. A C S, therefore
A = S∩A= ( E1 U E2 U E3.....U En) ∩ A
= (E1 ∩ A) U (E2∩A)......U (En∩A)
(Distributive law)
P(A) = P[E1∩A)U (E2∩A)U .....U(En∩A)].
= P(E1∩A) + P(E2∩A) +..... + P(En∩ A)
[∵ E1∩A, E2∩A, ......En∩A are mutually exclusive events]
P(A) = P(E1)P(A/E1) + P(E2)P(A/E2)+ ... P(En)P(A/En)
= ∑EFG, P(Ei)P(A/Ei)

Examples
1. Three machines E,, E, and E, in a certain factory producing electric bulbs,
produce 50%, 25% and 25% respectively, of the total daily output of electric
bulbs. It is known that 40% of the bulbs produced by each of machines E, and
E, are defective and that 5% of those produced by machine E, are defective. If
one bulb is picked up at random from a day's production, calculate the
probability that it is defective.

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Solution
Let A1: Event of producing bulb by machine E1.
A2: Event of producing bulb by machine E2.
A3: Event that the picked-up bulb is defective.
We have,
B. ,
P(A1)=50%= = ,
,.. ;
;B ,
P(A2)= 25%= = ,
,.. 8
;B ,
P(A3)= 25%= = ,
,.. 8
Also,
8 ,
P(A| A1)= 4%= = ,
,.. ;B
8 ,
P(A| A2)= 4%= = ,
,.. ;B
B ,
P(A| A3)= 5%= = ,
,.. ;.
Therefore, the probability that the picked up balls is defective is given by
P(A)= P(A1)× P(A/A1) + P(A2) × P(A/A2) + P(A3) ×P(A/A3)
, , , , , ,
= × + × + ×
; ;B 8 ;B 8 ;.
, , ,
= + +
B. ,.. >.
,?
=
8..
= 0.0425

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 2. A person has undertaken a construction job. The probabilities are 0.65 that
there will be strike, 0.80 that the construction job will be completed on time if
there is no strike, and 0.32 that the construction job will be completed on time if
there is a strike. Determine the probability that the construction job will be
completed on time.

Solution:
Let A be the event that the construction job will be completed on time, and B
be the event that there will be a strike. We have to find P(A).
We have
P(B) = 0.65,
P(no strike) = P(B') = 1– P(B) = 1 – 0.65 = 0.35
P(A/B) = 0.32, P(AIB') = 0.80
Since events B and B' form a partition of the sample space S, therefore, by
theorem on total probability, we have
P(A) = P(B) P(AIB) + P(B') P(AIB’)
= 0.65 x 0.32 + 0.35 x 0.8
=0.208 +0.28
= 0.488
Thus, the probability that the construction job will be completed in time is
0.488.

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c) Baye's Theorem
Let E1 ,E2,……Enbe the set of n mutually exclusive and exhaustive and
exclusive events whose union is the random sample space S of an experiment. If
A be any arbitrary event of the sample space of the above experiment with
P(A) ≠0, then probability of the event Ei, when the event A has actually
occurred is given by P(Ei /A) where ;
% ('∩=H )
P(Ei /A ) =
%('∩=₁)I%('∩=₂)I⋯I%('∩=K )

we know that
P(A∩Ei)= P(Ei) . P(A/Ei)
%(=H )%('/=H )
∴ P(Ei/A) =
%(=₁) .%('/=₁)I%(=₂) .%('/=₂)I⋯I%(=K ) .%('/=K )

%(=H )%('/=H )
P(Ei/A) =
%(=₁) .%('/=₁)

An experiment can be performed in n mutually exclusive and exhaustive ways

E1,E2,E3…..En. The probability P(Ei) of the occurrence of event Ei ;i=1,2,3…n is
known. The probability P(Ei) is changed to conditional probability P(Ei/A).
Baye's Theorem enables us to evaluate P(Ei/A) if all the P(Ei) and P(A/Ei) are
known.
Particular cases
1) n = 2;
We have,
%(=₁) .%('/=₁)
P(E1/A) =
%(=₁) .%('/=₁) I %(=₂) .%('/=₂)

%(=₂) .%('/=₂)
P(E2/A) =
%(=₁) .%('/=₁) I %(=₂) .%('/=₂)

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 2) n = 3
%(=₁) .%('/=₁)
P(E1/A) =
%(=₁) .%('/=₁) I %(=₂) .%('/=₂)I %(=M) .%('/=M )
%(=₂) .%('/=₂)
P(E2/A) =
%(=₁) .%('/=₁) I %(=₂) .%('/=₂)I %(=M) .%('/=M )
%(=M ) .%('/=M )
P(E3/A) =
%(=₁) .%('/=₁) I %(=₂) .%('/=₂)I %(=M ) .%('/=M)

EXAMPLES:
1) In a bolt factory, machines A,B and C manufacture 60%, 25% and 15%
respectively.Of the total of their output 1%,2% and 1% are defective bolts.
A bolt is drawn at random from the total production and found to be
defective. From which machine, the defective bolt is expected to have been
manufactured.

Solution:
Let E1,E2,E3 be the events of drawing a bolt produced by machines A,B and C
respectively. Let D be the event of drawing a defective bolt.
We have
N.
P(E1) = ,
,..
;B
P(E2) = ,
,..
,B
P(E3) = ,
,..
,
P(D/E1) =
,..
;
P(D/E2) = ,
,..
,
P(D/E3) =
,..

The events E1,E2,E3 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive.

By Baye’s Theorem,

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P(defective bolt is produced by machine A)

%(=₁) %(O/=₁)
P(E1/D) =
%(=₁) %(O/=₁)I %(=₂).%PDRE₂TI %(=:) .%(O/=M )
N.
=
N.IB.I,B
N.
=
,;B
,;
=
;B

2) In a test, an examinee either guesses or copies or knows that answer to a

multiple choice question with four choices. The probability that he makes a
guess is 1/3 and the probability that he copies the answer is 1/6. The
probability that his answer is correct, given that he copied it, is 1/8. Find
the probability that he knew the answer to the questions, given that he
correctly answered it.

Solution:
Let E1,E2,E3 be the events that he 'guesses the answer', 'copies the answer’ ,
'knows the answer' respectively.
, ,
Then, P(E1) = , P (E2) =
: N

Since E1 , E2 , E3 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events, therefore, (5)

P(E)+P(E) - 1

P(E1)+ P(E2)+ P(E3) = 1

, , ,
therefore, P(E1)=1-P (E1) – P (E2) = 1 – – =
: N ;

Let A be the event that he answers correctly.

Since there are 4 choices to answer, therefore

,
P(A/E1) = Probability that he answers correctly on the basis of guess =
8

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 ,
P(A/E2) = Probability that he answers correctly on the basis of copying =
>

P(A/E3) = Probability that he answers correctly when he knows the answer

= 1(A/E3,is a sure event)

Required probability =Probability that he knew the answer given that he has
correctly answered

= P(A/E3)

By Baye's theorem, we have

%(=M ) %(O/=M)
P(A/E3) =
%(=₁) %(O/=₁)I %(=₂).%PDRE₂TI %(=:) .%(O/=M)

U
W,
V
= U U U U U
XMWYZIX[W\ZIXVW,Z

U
V
= U U U
XUVZIXY\ZIXVZ

, 8>
= ×
; ;A

;8
=
;A

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 CONCLUSION

Conditional probability is one of the most important and fundamental concepts

in probability theory. We actually make many judgments every day based on
uncertainty. For example, we make decisions about who we think will win a
sports event based on what we read in the paper, our knowledge of the teams’
strengths, and discussion with friends. Conditional probability is simply a way
of quantifying our beliefs about uncertain events given information.
The Law of Total Probability says that the probability of some event, P[A], can
be divided into multiple “partitions” of probabilities that make up P[A]. This is
really useful because even though we don’t know anything about the probability
of event A, we may be able to calculate the probabilities of other events, which
added together give us P[A].Without the law of total probability, we may not be
able to directly calculate any probabilities in which we weren’t given
information directly about.
Bay’s Theorem was named after the 18th century mathematician, Thomas
Bayes. Bay’s theorem provides a way to revise existing prediction or theories
(update probabilities) given now. In Finance Bay's theorem can be used to rate
the risk of lending money to potential borrower. It is often employed in finance
in updating risk evaluation.
Bay’s theorem thus gives the probability of an event based on new information
i.e, or may be related to that event. The formula can be used to see how the
probability of an event occurring is affected by hypothetical new information,
supposing the new information will turn out to be true.

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 BIBLIOGRAPHY

To complete this project, I have taken help from:

1. ISC Mathematics Book II for class XII by O.P.Malholtra, S.K.Gupta,
Anubhuti Gangal.

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