Calculs Corporate Valuation
Calculs Corporate Valuation
Calculs Corporate Valuation
Average 0.70 0.68 5.0 4.6 6.1 5.6 10.9 10.0 14% 15%
Aggregates of Pro7 2,863 2,940 871 885 761 786 376 426 30% 30%
EV 2,008 2,007 4,368 4,100 4,650 4,384
(Net debt) (1,818) (1,857) (1,818) (1,857) (1,818) (1,857)
Equity value 190 150 2,550 2,243 2,832 2,527 4,095 4,273
Non meaningful
Min Max
P/E 4,095 178 4,273
xEBIT 2,527 306 2,832 xSales xSales
xEBITDA 2,243 307 2,550
xSales 150 39 190
Multiples transactionnels
xSales xEBITDA xEBIT P/E
0.93 7.0 7.8 8.3
0.93 8.3 8.9 9.5
0.92 9.0 9.5 10.0
11.6% 53.3%
< >
Target 20.0% 16.6%
Higher Lower
operating leverage of the
profitability of firm compared
the firm to be to its peers
valued
compared
to its peers
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%
62.5% 58.8% 55.6% 52.6% 50.0%
37.5% 41.2% 44.4% 47.4% 50.0%
12.0% 15.0% 19.0% 24.0% 30.0%
4.0% 5.0% 7.0% 10.0% 15.0%
2.6% 3.2% 4.5% 6.4% 9.6%
8.5% 10.1% 12.5% 15.7% 19.8%
Enterprise value
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60
Gearing (D/E)
k
i
i.(1-t)
K
D 20
E 100
D/E 20%
t 36.1%
Beta of the debt (bD) 0.08 0.17 0.25 0.33 0.42 0.50
Leveraged beta (b) 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.84
k by the CAPM 8.35% 8.29% 8.22% 8.16% 8.09% 8.03%
Breakdown of k
Risk free rate = r 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Operating risk premium 4.80% 4.80% 4.80% 4.80% 4.80% 4.80%
Financial risk premiun 0.55% 0.49% 0.42% 0.36% 0.29% 0.23%
Cost of equity (k) 8.35% 8.29% 8.22% 8.16% 8.09% 8.03%
12%
10%
K by the adjusted cost of cap-
8% ital = r.[1-Dt/(E+D)]
6% k by MM = r+(r-i).(1-t).D/E
4% Rho.(1-t)
2%
0%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
D/E
6% k by MM = r+(r-i).(1-t).D/E
4% Rho.(1-t)
2%
0%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
D/E
Cost of resources
8.6%
8.4%
8.2%
8.0%
7.8% k
K
7.6%
7.4%
7.2%
7.0%
6.8%
0.035 0.04 0.045 0.05 0.055 0.06
Cost of debt
cost of cap-
D)]
(1-t).D/E
(1-t).D/E
Risk free rate Sum of discounted FCF (2012-2021)
Market risk premium Terminal value
Beta from Bloomberg
Market cap EV
Corporate tax rate Net debt
Unleveraged beta
Beta of debt Equity value
Cost of debt
Leveraged beta
Cost of equity 0.00%
Wacc 10.00%
Wacc 7.86258%
Wacc = K 7.76%
8.38%
8.94%
7.76%
Wacc = K 7.76%
8.38%
8.11%
7.76%
A B C Other assets
Market caps
A 1,000
B 2,000
C 3,000
Equity 1,200
F1 F2 F3 Other assets
Balance sheet of F1
Various assets 1,000 Equity 700
Net debt 300
_____ _____
Total assets 1,000 1,000
Balance sheet of F2
Various assets 2,000 Equity 1,200
Net debt 800
_____ _____
Total assets 2,000 2,000
Balance sheet of F3
Various assets 5,000 Equity 4,000
Net debt 1,000
_____ _____
Total assets 5,000 5,000
Equity 1,100
NAV 4,954
Equity % of Minority Equity Value of
value interest interests group the
share shares
E=C-D F G = E.(1-F) H=E-G I=ExF
420 70% 126 294 294
700 80% 140 560 560
4,500 100% 0 4,500 4,500
(400) (400)
Equity
1st of Jan 120 135 162 180
Net profit 12 15 16 17
After tax cost of dividends 0 0 0 0
31st of Dec 120 132 150 178 197
Sensitivity analysis of the equity value to the discount rate and to the perpetuity growth rate
Perpetuity growth rate Discount rate
98 9% 10% 11% 12%
1% 98 98 98 98
2% 98 98 98 98
3% 98 98 98 98
4% 98 98 98 98
Sensitivity analysis of the equity value to the discount rate and to the target CT1 ratio
Target CT1 ratio Discount rate
98 9% 10% 11% 12%
8% 98 98 98 98
9% 98 98 98 98
10% 98 98 98 98
11% 98 98 98 98
Soft landing Recurring
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
18 20 21 22 23 23
2 5 8 11 14 15
2 5 8 11 14 15
1 3 4 5 6 6
2 5 8 11 14 15
(15) (10) (3) 8 23 37
(16) (13) (7) 3 16 30
4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
36.1% 36.1% 36.1% 36.1% 36.1% 36.1%
2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%
(0) (0) (0) 0 0 1
Achieved Budget Company's BP
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net profit 10 12 15 16 17
Equity
1st of Jan 120 89 104 118
Net profit 12 15 16 17
After tax cost of dividends (1) (1) (1) (1)
31st of Dec 120 131 103 119 134
Risks
Non life 14% 84 98 112 126
Life: € contracts 4% 4 4 4 5
Life: unit linked contracts 1% 2 2 2 2
Total risks 89 104 118 133
Growth rate 15.9% 14.0% 12.3%
Sensitivity analysis of the equity value to the discount rate and to the perpetuity growth rate
Perpetuity growth rate Discount rate
170 9% 10% 11% 12%
1% 170 170 170 170
2% 170 170 170 170
3% 170 170 170 170
4% 170 170 170 170
Sensitivity analysis of the equity value to the discount rate and to the solvency ratio
Target CT1 ratio Discount rate
170 9% 10% 11% 12%
100% 170 170 170 170
120% 170 170 170 170
140% 170 170 170 170
160% 170 170 170 170
Soft landing Recurring
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
19 20 22 23 24 24
4 7 10 13 16 16
4 7 10 13 16 16
2 4 5 6 6 7
4 7 10 13 16 16
47 54 63 76 92 108
46 51 59 70 84 100
4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
36.1% 36.1% 36.1% 36.1% 36.1% 36.1%
2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%
1 1 2 2 2 3