Calculs Corporate Valuation

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Amonts in € million

Calculated data in black

Company Market Net debt EV Sales EBITDA EBIT Net profit


cap 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013
TF1 1,592 (18) (67) 1,574 1,525 2,599 2,536 327 328 235 244 153 166
M6 1,445 (318) (342) 1,127 1,103 1,414 1,444 216 239 204 225 127 138

EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT P/E EBITDA/sales


2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013
TF1 0.61 0.60 4.8 4.6 6.7 6.3 10.4 9.6 13% 13%
M6 0.80 0.76 5.2 4.6 5.5 4.9 11.4 10.5 15% 17%

Average 0.70 0.68 5.0 4.6 6.1 5.6 10.9 10.0 14% 15%

Aggregates of Pro7 2,863 2,940 871 885 761 786 376 426 30% 30%
EV 2,008 2,007 4,368 4,100 4,650 4,384
(Net debt) (1,818) (1,857) (1,818) (1,857) (1,818) (1,857)

Equity value 190 150 2,550 2,243 2,832 2,527 4,095 4,273

Non meaningful

Min Max
P/E 4,095 178 4,273
xEBIT 2,527 306 2,832 xSales xSales
xEBITDA 2,243 307 2,550
xSales 150 39 190

xEBITDA 2,243 2,550

xEBIT 2,527 2,832

P/E 4,095 4,273

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000


Amonts in € million
Sources of the assumptions in blue
- Date and value opf the transaction: press
- Financial aggregates of the firm to be valued: annual report of the last year before the transaction announcement
Calcualte data in black

Buyer Target transaction Equity Target's Target's Target's aggregates as at 31/12/n-1


date value net debt EV Sales EBITDA EBIT Net profit
A D 7/8/2008 1,000 400 1,400 1,500 200 180 120
B E 5/3/2008 2,000 500 2,500 2,700 300 280 210
C F 7/2/2007 3,000 600 3,600 3,900 400 380 300

Multiples transactionnels
xSales xEBITDA xEBIT P/E
0.93 7.0 7.8 8.3
0.93 8.3 8.9 9.5
0.92 9.0 9.5 10.0

Average 0.93 8.1 8.7 9.3

Aggregates of the company to be valued 1000 200 180 140


EV 927 1,622 1,571 1,300
(Net debt) (200) (200) (200)
______ ______ ______ ______
Equity value 727 1,422 1,371 1,300
Target Ratio
EBITDA/Sales Debt/Equity
D 13.3% 40.0%
E 11.1% 25.0%
F 10.3% 95.0%

11.6% 53.3%
< >
Target 20.0% 16.6%

Higher Lower
operating leverage of the
profitability of firm compared
the firm to be to its peers
valued
compared
to its peers

Higher value Lower valuation


based on based on the P/E
xEBITDA versus xEBITDA
D/E 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0%
E/(E+D) 100.0% 90.9% 83.3% 76.9% 71.4% 66.7%
D/(E+D) 0.0% 9.1% 16.7% 23.1% 28.6% 33.3%
k 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.5% 10.0%
i 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
i.(1-t) 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%
K 8.0% 7.5% 7.1% 6.7% 6.8% 7.5%

FCF 100 100 100 100 100 100


EV 1,250 1,332 1,410 1,483 1,470 1,330

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%
62.5% 58.8% 55.6% 52.6% 50.0%
37.5% 41.2% 44.4% 47.4% 50.0%
12.0% 15.0% 19.0% 24.0% 30.0%
4.0% 5.0% 7.0% 10.0% 15.0%
2.6% 3.2% 4.5% 6.4% 9.6%
8.5% 10.1% 12.5% 15.7% 19.8%

100 100 100 100 100


1,182 986 797 639 505

Enterprise value
1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60
Gearing (D/E)

k
i
i.(1-t)
K

% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Gearing (D/E)
Risk free rate = r 3.00%
Unleveraged beta = b* 0.8
Market risk premium = E(RM)-r 6.00%
E(R*) = r = r+b*.[ERM)-r] 7.80%

D 20
E 100
D/E 20%
t 36.1%

Sensitivity to the cost of debt


i 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0%
k by MM = r+(r-i).(1-t).D/E 8.35% 8.29% 8.22% 8.16% 8.09% 8.03%
K by the wacc = [k.E+i(1-t).D]/(E+D) 7.33% 7.33% 7.33% 7.33% 7.33% 7.33%
K by the adjusted cost of capital = r.[1-Dt/(E+D)] 7.33% 7.33% 7.33% 7.33% 7.33% 7.33%

Beta of the debt (bD) 0.08 0.17 0.25 0.33 0.42 0.50
Leveraged beta (b) 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.84
k by the CAPM 8.35% 8.29% 8.22% 8.16% 8.09% 8.03%

Breakdown of k
Risk free rate = r 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Operating risk premium 4.80% 4.80% 4.80% 4.80% 4.80% 4.80%
Financial risk premiun 0.55% 0.49% 0.42% 0.36% 0.29% 0.23%
Cost of equity (k) 8.35% 8.29% 8.22% 8.16% 8.09% 8.03%

Sensitivity to the financial structure


D/E 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00%
D/E+D 0.00% 16.67% 28.57% 37.50% 44.44% 50.00%
K by the adjusted cost of capital = r.[1-Dt/(E+D)] 7.80% 7.33% 7.00% 6.74% 6.55% 6.39%
k by MM = r+(r-i).(1-t).D/E 7.80% 8.29% 8.77% 9.26% 9.74% 10.23%
Rho.(1-t) 4.98% 4.98% 4.98% 4.98% 4.98% 4.98%
Cost of resources

12%
10%
K by the adjusted cost of cap-
8% ital = r.[1-Dt/(E+D)]
6% k by MM = r+(r-i).(1-t).D/E
4% Rho.(1-t)
2%
0%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
D/E
6% k by MM = r+(r-i).(1-t).D/E
4% Rho.(1-t)
2%
0%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
D/E
Cost of resources

8.6%

8.4%

8.2%

8.0%

7.8% k
K
7.6%

7.4%

7.2%

7.0%

6.8%
0.035 0.04 0.045 0.05 0.055 0.06
Cost of debt

cost of cap-
D)]

(1-t).D/E
(1-t).D/E
Risk free rate Sum of discounted FCF (2012-2021)
Market risk premium Terminal value
Beta from Bloomberg
Market cap EV
Corporate tax rate Net debt
Unleveraged beta
Beta of debt Equity value
Cost of debt
Leveraged beta
Cost of equity 0.00%

Perpetuity growth rate 3.00%

Wacc 10.00%

Amounts in € million . Budget Company's BP


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sales 1,000 1,200 1,500 1,800 2,000
Growth rate 20% 25% 20% 11%

EBITDA 300 350 400 420 450


EBITDA margin 30% 29% 27% 23% 23%

(D&A) (50) (60) (70) (80) (85)


D&A / sales -5.0% -5.0% -4.7% -4.4% -4.3%

EBIT 250 290 330 340 365

(Corporate tax) (86) (105) (119) (123) (132)


Corporate tax rate 34.43% 36.10% 36.10% 36.10% 36.10%

NOPAT 164 185 211 217 233


D&A 50 60 70 80 85
(Net capex) (60) (65) (70) (75) (80)
(DWCR) (50) (50) (50) (50)
_____ _____ _____ _____
Free Cash Flow 130 161 172 188
Disccount period 0.25 1.25 2.25 3.25
Discounted FCF 127 143 139 138

WCR 250 300 350 400 450


WCR / sales 25% 25% 23% 22% 23%
1,391
1,868
_____
3,259
1,000
_____
2,259

Soft landing Recurring


2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
2,190 2,362 2,510 2,626 2,704 2,785
9% 8% 6% 5% 3% 3%

493 531 565 591 608 627


23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%

(93) (100) (107) (112) (115) (118)


-4.3% -4.3% -4.3% -4.3% -4.3% -4.3%

400 431 458 479 494 508

(144) (156) (165) (173) (178) (184)


36.10% 36.10% 36.10% 36.10% 36.10% 36.10%

255 275 293 306 315 325


93 100 107 112 115 118
(87) (94) (101) (108) (115) (118)
(43) (39) (33) (26) (18) (18)
_____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____
219 243 265 284 298 307
4.25 5.25 6.25 7.25 8.25 9.25
146 147 146 142 136 127

493 531 565 591 608 627


23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%
Risk free rate 4.00% Sum of discounted FCF (2012-2021)
Market risk premium 6.00% Terminal value
Beta from Bloomberg 0.851
Market cap 3,000 EV
Corporate tax rate 36.10% Net debt
Unleveraged beta
Beta of debt Equity value
Cost of debt 5.00%
Leveraged beta
Cost of equity 9.11%

Perpetuity growth rate 3.00%

Wacc 7.86258%

Amounts in € million Achieved Budget Company's BP


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Free Cash Flow 130 161 172 188
Disccount period 0.25 1.25 2.25 3.25
Discounted FCF 128 146 145 147

WCR 250 300 350 400 450


WCR / sales 25% 25% 23% 22% 23%
1,529
3,224
_____
4,754
1,000
_____
3,754

Soft landing Recurring


2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
219 243 265 284 298 307
4.25 5.25 6.25 7.25 8.25 9.25
159 163 165 164 159 152

493 531 565 591 608 627


23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%
7.1892
Risk free rate 4.00% Sum of discounted FCF (2012-2021)
Market risk premium 6.00% Terminal value
Beta from Bloomberg 0.851
Market cap 3,000 EV
Corporate tax rate 36.10% Net debt
Unleveraged beta = b* 0.730
Beta of debt 0.167 Equity value
Cost of debt 5.00%
Checks
Leveraged beta 0.823362 k* = r
Cost of equity = k (CAPM) 8.94% k = r + (r-i).(1-t).D/E
Perpetuity growth rate 3.00% K = r.[1-tD/(E+D)]

Wacc = K 7.76%

Amounts in € million Achieved Budget Company's BP


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Free Cash Flow 130 161 172 188
Disccount period 0.25 1.25 2.25 3.25
Discounted FCF 128 147 146 148

WCR 250 300 350 400 450


WCR / sales 25% 25% 23% 22% 23%
1,537
3,324
_____
4,861
1,000
_____
3,861

8.38%
8.94%
7.76%

Soft landing Recurring


2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
219 243 265 284 298 307
4.25 5.25 6.25 7.25 8.25 9.25
159 164 166 165 161 154

493 531 565 591 608 627


23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%
g Risk free rate
3,861 3% 4% 5%
2% 3,861 3,861 3,861
3% 3,861 3,861 3,861
4% 3,861 3,861 3,861
Risk free rate 4.00% Sum of discounted FCF (2012-2021)
Market risk premium 6.00% Terminal value
Beta from Bloomberg 0.851
Market cap 3,000 EV
Corporate tax rate 36.10% Net debt
Unleveraged beta = b* 0.730
Beta of debt 1.000 Equity value
Cost of debt 10.00%
Checks
Leveraged beta 0.686 k* = r
Cost of equity = k (CAPM) 8.11% k = r + (r-i).(1-t).D/E
Perpetuity growth rate 3.00% K = r.[1-tD/(E+D)]

Wacc = K 7.76%

Amounts in € million Achieved Budget Company's BP


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Free Cash Flow 130 161 172 188
Disccount period 0.25 1.25 2.25 3.25
Discounted FCF 128 147 146 148

WCR 250 300 350 400 450


WCR / sales 25% 25% 23% 22% 23%
1,537
3,324
_____
4,861
1,000
_____
3,861

8.38%
8.11%
7.76%

Soft landing Recurring


2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
219 243 265 284 298 307
4.25 5.25 6.25 7.25 8.25 9.25
159 164 166 165 161 154

493 531 565 591 608 627


23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%
g Risk free rate
3,861 3% 4% 5%
2% 3,861 3,861 3,861
3% 3,861 3,861 3,861
4% 3,861 3,861 3,861
H

70% 30% 10%

A B C Other assets

Company balance sheet of H


A 500 Equity 1,200
B 700 Net debt 1,000
C 200
Other assets 800
_____ _____
Total assets 2,200 2,200

Market caps
A 1,000
B 2,000
C 3,000

Asset Economic Book Capital


value value gain/loss
A 700 500 200
B 600 700 (100)
C 300 200 100
Other 800 800 0

Total 2,400 2,200 200

Net debt 1,000

Pretax NAV 1,400

Equity 1,200

Pretax NAV 1,400

Corporate tax rate on capital gains 3.61%

Tax on capital gain (7)

Post tax NAV 1,393


S

70% 80% 100%

F1 F2 F3 Other assets

Balance sheet of F1
Various assets 1,000 Equity 700
Net debt 300
_____ _____
Total assets 1,000 1,000

Balance sheet of F2
Various assets 2,000 Equity 1,200
Net debt 800
_____ _____
Total assets 2,000 2,000

Balance sheet of F3
Various assets 5,000 Equity 4,000
Net debt 1,000
_____ _____
Total assets 5,000 5,000

Company balance sheet of S


Shares F1 300 Equity 1,100
Shares F2 400 Net debt 1,000
Shares F3 800
Other assets 600
_____ _____
Total assets 2,100 2,100

Consolidated balance sheet of S


Assets of F1, F2, F3 8,000 Equity
Goodwills Company 1,100
on F1 230 Consolidated reserves
on F2 240 from F1 420
on F3 300 from F2 800
Other assets 600 from F3 3,500
Minority interests
from F1 210
from F2 240
Net debt 3,100
_____ _____
Total assets 9,370 9,370
Assets Equity EBIT xEBIT EV Net debt
when 2013 2013
bought
A B C=A x B D
F1 100 80 9.0 720 300
F2 200 150 10.0 1,500 800
F3 500 500 11.0 5,500 1,000
Others 600 1,000

Total (1) 8,320 3,100


Consolidated debt (2) 3,100
Minority interests (3) 266
Equity group share : (1) - (2) - (3) 4,954

Asset Econ. Book Capital


value value gain/loss
Shares F1 294 300 (6)
Shares F2 560 400 160
Shares F3 4,500 800 3,700
Others 600 600 0

Total (1) 5,954 2,100 3,854

Net debt (2) 1,000

NAV: (1) - (2) 4,954

Equity 1,100

NAV 4,954
Equity % of Minority Equity Value of
value interest interests group the
share shares
E=C-D F G = E.(1-F) H=E-G I=ExF
420 70% 126 294 294
700 80% 140 560 560
4,500 100% 0 4,500 4,500
(400) (400)

5,220 266 4,954


Achieved Budget Company's BP
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net profit 10 12 15 16 17

RWA 1,000 1,500 1,800 2,000 2,200


Growth rate 50.0% 20.0% 11.1% 10.0%

Equity
1st of Jan 120 135 162 180
Net profit 12 15 16 17
After tax cost of dividends 0 0 0 0
31st of Dec 120 132 150 178 197

RWA 1,500 1,800 2,000 2,200


Target CT1 ratio 9% 11% 11% 11%
Required equity 165 198 220 242

Excess equity (3) (12) (2) (1)


Dividend (+) ; capital increase (-) (3) (12) (2) (1)

Discount rate 10% 11% 11% 11%


Discount period 0.25 1.25 2.25 3.25

Discounted dividend (3) (10) (1) (0)

Dividend of the year (3) (12) (2) (1)


Cumulative dividend 0 (3) (15) (16) (17)
Average cumulative dividend (1) (9) (16) (17)
Pretax cost of debt 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Corporate tax rate 36.1% 36.1% 36.1% 36.1%
After tax cost of debt 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%
After tax financing cost (0) (0) (0) (0)

Sum of discounted dividends 9


Terminal value 89
Equity value 98

Sensitivity analysis of the equity value to the discount rate and to the perpetuity growth rate
Perpetuity growth rate Discount rate
98 9% 10% 11% 12%
1% 98 98 98 98
2% 98 98 98 98
3% 98 98 98 98
4% 98 98 98 98

Sensitivity analysis of the equity value to the discount rate and to the target CT1 ratio
Target CT1 ratio Discount rate
98 9% 10% 11% 12%
8% 98 98 98 98
9% 98 98 98 98
10% 98 98 98 98
11% 98 98 98 98
Soft landing Recurring
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
18 20 21 22 23 23

2,394 2,576 2,740 2,883 2,998 3,118


8.8% 7.6% 6.4% 5.2% 3.0% 4.0%

198 215 231 244 255 262


18 20 21 22 23 23
0 0 0 (0) (0) (1)
217 235 252 266 277 285

2,394 2,576 2,740 2,883 2,998 3,118


11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11%
263 283 301 317 330 343

2 5 8 11 14 15
2 5 8 11 14 15

11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11%


4.25 5.25 6.25 7.25 8.25 9.25

1 3 4 5 6 6

2 5 8 11 14 15
(15) (10) (3) 8 23 37
(16) (13) (7) 3 16 30
4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
36.1% 36.1% 36.1% 36.1% 36.1% 36.1%
2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%
(0) (0) (0) 0 0 1
Achieved Budget Company's BP
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net profit 10 12 15 16 17

Premium in non life 500 600 700 800 900


Growth rate 20.0% 16.7% 14.3% 12.5%

Technical reserves in life


€ contracts 80 90 100 110 120
Growth rate 12.5% 11.1% 10.0% 9.1%

Unit linked contracts 200 180 160 170 180


Growth rate -10.0% -11.1% 6.3% 5.9%

Equity
1st of Jan 120 89 104 118
Net profit 12 15 16 17
After tax cost of dividends (1) (1) (1) (1)
31st of Dec 120 131 103 119 134

Risks
Non life 14% 84 98 112 126
Life: € contracts 4% 4 4 4 5
Life: unit linked contracts 1% 2 2 2 2
Total risks 89 104 118 133
Growth rate 15.9% 14.0% 12.3%

Target solvency ratio 100% 160% 160% 160%


Required equity 143 166 189 212

Excess equity 42 (0) 0 1


Dividend (+) ; capital increase (-) 42 (0) 0 1

Discount rate 10% 11% 11% 11%


Discount period 0.25 1.25 2.25 3.25

Discounted dividend 41 (0) 0 1

Dividend of the year 42 (0) 0 1


Cumulative dividend 0 42 42 42 44
Average cumulative dividend 21 42 42 43
Pretax cost of debt 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Corporate tax rate 36.1% 36.1% 36.1% 36.1%
After tax cost of debt 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%
After tax financing cost 1 1 1 1

Sum of discounted dividends 71


Terminal value 98
Equity value 170

Sensitivity analysis of the equity value to the discount rate and to the perpetuity growth rate
Perpetuity growth rate Discount rate
170 9% 10% 11% 12%
1% 170 170 170 170
2% 170 170 170 170
3% 170 170 170 170
4% 170 170 170 170

Sensitivity analysis of the equity value to the discount rate and to the solvency ratio
Target CT1 ratio Discount rate
170 9% 10% 11% 12%
100% 170 170 170 170
120% 170 170 170 170
140% 170 170 170 170
160% 170 170 170 170
Soft landing Recurring
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
19 20 22 23 24 24

995 1,082 1,156 1,212 1,249 1,286


10.6% 8.7% 6.8% 4.9% 3.0% 3.0%

129 138 146 152 156 161


7.9% 6.7% 5.4% 4.2% 3.0% 3.0%

190 199 207 214 221 227


5.3% 4.7% 4.2% 3.6% 3.0% 3.0%

133 146 159 170 178 183


19 20 22 23 24 24
(1) (1) (2) (2) (2) (3)
150 166 179 191 199 205

139 151 162 170 175 180


5 6 6 6 6 6
2 2 2 2 2 2
146 159 170 178 183 189
10.4% 8.6% 6.7% 4.9% 3.0% 3.0%

160% 160% 160% 160% 160% 160%


234 254 271 285 293 302

4 7 10 13 16 16
4 7 10 13 16 16

11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11%


4.25 5.25 6.25 7.25 8.25 9.25

2 4 5 6 6 7

4 7 10 13 16 16
47 54 63 76 92 108
46 51 59 70 84 100
4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
36.1% 36.1% 36.1% 36.1% 36.1% 36.1%
2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%
1 1 2 2 2 3

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