Probability [53 marks]

1. [Maximum mark: 15]

The length, X mm, of a certain species of seashell is normally distributed with
mean 25 and variance, σ2.

The probability that X is less than 24.15 is 0.1446.

(a) Find P(24.15 < X < 25). [2]

Markscheme

attempt to use the symmetry of the normal curve (M1)

eg diagram, 0.5 − 0.1446

P(24.15 < X < 25) = 0.3554 A1

[2 marks]

(b.i) Find σ, the standard deviation of X. [3]

Markscheme

use of inverse normal to find z score (M1)

z = −1.0598

correct substitution (A1)

24.15−25
= −1.0598
σ

σ= 0.802 A1

[3 marks]

(b.ii) Hence, find the probability that a seashell selected at random

has a length greater than 26 mm.
 [2]

Markscheme

P(X > 26) = 0.106 (M1)A1

[2 marks]

A random sample of 10 seashells is collected on a beach. Let Y represent the

number of seashells with lengths greater than 26 mm.

(c) Find E(Y). [3]

Markscheme

recognizing binomial probability (M1)

E(Y) = 10 × 0.10621 (A1)

= 1.06 A1

[3 marks]

(d) Find the probability that exactly three of these seashells have a
length greater than 26 mm. [2]

Markscheme

P(Y = 3) (M1)

= 0.0655 A1

[2 marks]

(e) A seashell selected at random has a length less than 26 mm.

 Find the probability that its length is between 24.15 mm and 25 [3]
mm.

Markscheme

recognizing conditional probability (M1)

correct substitution A1

0.3554

1−0.10621

= 0.398 A1

[3 marks]

2. [Maximum mark: 4]
The random variable X is normally distributed with mean 10 and standard
deviation 2.

(a) Find the probability that X is more than 1. 5 standard

deviations above the mean. [2]

Markscheme

recognition of X > 13 OR Z > 1. 5 (could be seen in a diagram)

(M1)

(P(X > 13) =) 0. 0668072 …

= 0. 0668 A1

[2 marks]
 The probability that X is more than k standard deviations above the mean is
0. 1, where k ∈ R.

(b) Find the value of k. [2]

Markscheme

EITHER

equating an appropriate correct normal CDF function to 0. 1 or 0. 9

(M1)

P(X > 10 + 2k) = 0. 1 OR P(Z < k) = 0. 9 OR

P(X < 10 − 2k) = 0. 1 OR P(Z < −k) = 0. 1

OR

recognising need to use inverse normal with 0. 1 or 0. 9 (M1)

THEN

1. 28155 …

k = 1. 28 A1

[2 marks]

3. [Maximum mark: 17]

A bag contains buttons which are either red or blue.

Initially, the bag contains three red buttons and one blue button.
Francine randomly selects one button from the bag. She then replaces the button
and adds one extra button of the same colour.

For example, if she selects a red button, she then replaces it and adds one extra
red button so that the bag then contains four red buttons and one blue button.

Francine then randomly selects a second button from the bag.

The following tree diagram represents the probabilities of the first two selections.

(a) Find the value of p and the value of q. [2]

Markscheme

evidence of understanding that there are now 3R and 2B (M1)

p =
3

5
, q =
2

5
A1
 [2 marks]

(b) Show that the probability that Francine selects two buttons of
the same colour is 7

10
. [2]

Markscheme

attempt to add two products (M1)

P(same) = P(RR or BB) = 3

4
×
4

5
+
1

4
×
2

5
A1

14
=
20

=
7

10
AG

[2 marks]

(c) Given that Francine selects two buttons of the same colour, find
the probability that she selects two red buttons. [3]

Markscheme

attempt to use conditional probability formula in context (M1)

P(RR)
P(RR | same) =
P(same)

Note: Award M0 if candidate only writes P(A|B) formula and nothing

else.

12
( )
=
20
14
(A1)
( )
20

=
12

14
(=
6

7
) A1
 [3 marks]

The random variable X is defined as the number of red buttons selected by

Francine.

The following table shows the probability distribution of X .

(d) Find the value of a and the value of b. [2]

Markscheme

a =
6

20
(=
3

10
), b =
12

20
(=
6

10
) A1A1

[2 marks]

(e) Hence, find the expected number of red buttons selected by

Francine. [2]

Markscheme

attempt to use the formula for E(X) (M1)

1 6 12
E(X) = 0 × + 1 × + 2 ×
10 20 20

=
30

20
(=
3

2
) A1

[2 marks]
Francine restarts the process with three red buttons and one blue button in the
bag. She selects buttons as before, replacing the button and adding one extra
button of the same colour each time. She repeats this until she selects a blue
button.

(f ) Given that the first two buttons she selects are red, write down
the probability that the next button she selects is blue. [1]

Markscheme

6
A1

[1 mark]

The probability that she selects the first blue button after n selections in total is
3

56
.

(g) Find the value of n. [5]

Markscheme

METHOD 1

n+1
P(n − 1 reds) =
3

4
×
4

5
× … ×
n+2
(=
3

n+2
) (A1)

1
P(next one blue) =
n+3
(A1)

P(n − 1 reds then 1 blue) = P(n − 1 reds) × P(next one blue)

(M1)

3 1 3

n+2
×
n+3
=
56
(A1)

(n + 2)(n + 3) = 56

n = 5 A1
Note: If no working shown, award M1A0A0A0A1 for n = 5.

METHOD 2

Let X be the number of selections in total made when first blue picked

attempt to establish pattern for X = 1, 2, 3, … with at least 3 cases

(M1)

P(X = 1) =
1

4
and P(second pick) =
3

4
×
1

5
(A1)

P(X = 3)(=
3

4
×
4

5
×
1

6
) =
3

5
×
1

6
(A1)

P(X = 5) =
3

7
×
1

8
(=
3

56
) (A1)

so n = 5 A1

METHOD 3

P(next one blue) =

n+3
1
(A1)

recognising
P(n − 1 R then 1B) = P(n − 1 R) × P(next one B) OR
3

4
×
4

5
× … ×
1

n+3
(M1)

4
×
4

5
×
5

6
×
6

7
×
1

8
(=
3

56
) (A1)(A1)

Note: Award A1 for 3

4
×
4

5
×
5

6
×
6

7
(seen anywhere) and A1 for × 18 .

so n = 5 A1
 [5 marks]

4. [Maximum mark: 5]
The following table shows the probability distribution of a discrete
random variable X, where a, k ∈ R .
+

Given that E(X) = 2. 3, find the value of a. [5]

Markscheme

E(X) = k + 2k
2
+ 3a + 4k
3
= 2. 3 (A1)

k + k
2
+ a + k
3
= 1 (A1)

Note: The first two A marks are independent of each other.

EITHER (finding intersections of functions)

attempt to make a the subject in both of their equations (M1)

a = 1 − k − k
2
− k
3
and
1 2 3
a = (2. 3 − k − 2k − 4k )
3

use of graph or table to attempt to find intersection (M1)

OR (solving algebraically)

attempt to solve their equations algebraically to find a cubic in k

(M1)
 0 OR
3 2
k − k − 2k + 0. 7 =

3(1 − k − k
2
− k )
3
= 2. 3 − k − 2k
2
− 4k
3
(or
equivalent)

attempt to solve their cubic in k (M1)

THEN

a = 0. 552839 … OR k = 0. 315870 … (other solutions to cubic

are k = − 1. 18538 … , 1. 86951 …)

a = 0. 553 A1

Note: If no working shown, award (A1)(A1)(M1)(M1)A0 for

a = 2. 44587 … OR a = − 10. 8987 … and award (A0)(A0)(M1)

(M1)A0 for a = 0. 55 (2sf ).

[5 marks]

5. [Maximum mark: 6]
A six-sided biased die is weighted in such a way that the probability of obtaining
7
a “six” is 10
.

(a) The die is tossed five times. Find the probability of obtaining at
most three “sixes”. [3]

Markscheme

recognition of binomial (M1)

X ~ B(5, 0.7)

attempt to find P (X ≤ 3) M1

= 0.472 (= 0.47178) A1
 [3 marks]

(b) The die is tossed five times. Find the probability of obtaining the
third “six” on the fifth toss. [3]

Markscheme

recognition of 2 sixes in 4 tosses (M1)

P (3rd six on the 5th toss)

4 2 2
= [( ) × (0.7) × (0.3) ] × 0.7 (= 0.2646 × 0.7) A1
2

= 0.185 (= 0.18522) A1

[3 marks]

6. [Maximum mark: 6]
In Happyland, the weather on any given day is independent of the weather on
any other day. On any day in May, the probability of rain is 0. 2. May has 31 days.

Find the probability that

(a) it rains on exactly 10 days in May; [2]

Markscheme

let X be the number of days of rain in May

recognition of binomial distribution (M1)

10 21
X~B(31, 0. 2) or 31
C (0. 2)
10
(0. 8) or X~B(n, p) or
n r n−r
C rp (1 − p)

P(X = 10) = 0. 0418894 …

 = 0. 0419 A1

Note: If no working shown, award (M1)A0 for 0. 042 (2 sf )

[2 marks]

(b) it rains on at least 10 days in May; [2]

Markscheme

let X be the number of days of rain in May

recognition of need to find P(X ≥ 10)(= 1 − P(X ≤ 9)) (M1)

0. 0745998 … (= 1 − 0. 925400 …)

= 0. 0746 A1

Note: If no working shown, award (M1)A0 for 0. 075 (2 sf )

[2 marks]

(c) the first day that it rains in May is on the 10th day. [2]

Markscheme

let X be the number of days of rain in May

recognition of 9 days with no rain followed by a day of rain (M1)

9
0. 8 × 0. 2 = 0. 0268435 …

= 0. 0268 A1
Note: If no working shown, award (M1)A0 for 0. 027 (2 sf )

[2 marks]

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