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17 views1 page

Chat GPT

Uploaded by

khansanku5420
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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6/17/24, 7:26 PM ChatGPT

ChatGPT
Let s calculate this step by step:

Month Actual 3-Month Moving Average Forecast


1 80 −
2 82 −
3 84 −
80+82+84
4 83 3
= 82.0 ​

82+84+83
5 83 3 = 83.0 ​

84+83+83
6 ​ 84 ​

3
= 83.33
​ ​ ​

83+83+84
7 85 3
= 83.33
​

83+84+85
8 84 3 = 84.0 ​

84+85+84
9 82 3
= 84.33
​

85+84+82
10 83 3
= 83.67
​

84+82+83
11 84 3 = 83.0 ​

82+83+84
12 83 3
= 83.0 ​

Exponential Smoothing Forecast (α = 0.2)


The exponential smoothing forecast for month t is calculated as:
Ft = αYt−1 + (1 − α)Ft−1
​ ​ ​

We'll use the first actual value as the initial forecast (F1 ​ = Y1 = 80).
​

Month Actual Exponential Smoothing Forecast


1 80 80.0
2 82 0.2 × 82 + 0.8 × 80 = 80.4
3 84 0.2 × 84 + 0.8 × 80.4 = 81.12
4 83 0.2 × 83 + 0.8 × 81.12 = 81.696
5 83 0.2 × 83 + 0.8 × 81.696 = 82.157
6 ​ 84 ​ 0.2 × 84 + 0.8 × 82.157 = 82.726 ​ ​

7 85 0.2 × 85 + 0.8 × 82.726 = 83.381


8 84 0.2 × 84 + 0.8 × 83.381 = 83.705
9 82 0.2 × 82 + 0.8 × 83.705 = 83.124
10 83 0.2 × 83 + 0.8 × 83.124 = 83.1
11 84 0.2 × 84 + 0.8 × 83.1 = 83.28
12 83 0.2 × 83 + 0.8 × 83.28 = 83.224

C i
Message ChatGPT

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