Automate Strategy Finding With LLM in Quant Invest
Automate Strategy Finding With LLM in Quant Invest
Automate Strategy Finding With LLM in Quant Invest
3 Methodology
This section details the methodology of a comprehensive frame-
work for constructing and optimizing alpha strategies in quantita-
tive trading. It introduces three key components: the Seed Alphas
Factory, a multi-agent decision-making process, and a weight opti-
mization approach. The Seed Alphas Factory is built using Large
Language Models (LLMs) to filter and categorize multimodal data,
creating a robust set of seed alphas. The multi-agent system evalu-
ates and selects these alphas based on diverse risk preferences and
market conditions, while a confidence scoring mechanism ensures
reliability. Finally, the selected alphas’ weights are optimized using
Figure 2: (A) An example of the seed alpha. (B) Its equivalent a Deep Neural Network (DNN) to predict future yields, forming the
expression tree. (C) Step-by-step computation of this seed foundation for a dynamic and adaptable investment strategy.
alpha on an example time series.
Figure 3: Overview of the strategy generate process (CS stands for confidence score; RP stands for risk preference).
Table 1: Multimodal data types are derived from the LLM’s summarization and categorization pro-
cess. The detailed generated Seed alphas factory can be seen in the
Data Type Description Examples Appendix 2. This structured output forms the foundation for the
Textual Data Financial reports, aca- Trading forums’ sentiment analysis and
demic papers, news ar- stock predictions, company disclosures, subsequent multi-agent decision-making and weight optimization
ticles, and other textual financial statements, Sina Finance stages in our framework.
documents.
Numerical Data Historical stock market Returns, log returns, annualized returns,
data, financial metrics, volatility 3.3 Multimodal & multi-Agent Evaluate Alpha
and performance indi-
cators. set
Visual Data Charts, graphs, and Kline charts, trading charts The second stage of our methodology involves a comprehensive
other visual representa-
tions of financial data. evaluation and selection of alpha factors through a multimodal
Audio Data Financial news broad- Financial morning news radio, stock re- and multi-agent system. This approach ensures a diversified and
casts. view radio, market discussion radio thorough assessment of the seed alphas by integrating diverse data
Video Data Financial news chan- CCTV Securities Information Channel,
nels. CCTV News Broadcast (news affecting sources and leveraging multiple analytical perspectives.
China’s stock market) In this stage, we incorporate multimodal data encompassing
textual, numerical, visual, and multimedia inputs to enrich the eval-
uation process. By integrating these varied data types, we provide a
comprehensive view of market conditions and the performance of
The primary function of Alpha Grail is to assist quantitative re- alpha factors. Table 2 outlines the five types of data utilized in our
searchers in building the Seed Alpha Factory by processing alpha- evaluation framework. This holistic approach allows for a nuanced
related research documents. The specific instruction given to Alpha understanding of the market dynamics and enhances the robustness
Grail was: "Summarize the document information to help quanti- of the evaluation process.
tative researchers build the Seed Alpha Factory according to tra- The multi-agent system comprises various agents, each designed
ditional financial categories, ensuring that each category of seed with distinct risk preferences and investment strategies. These
alphas is independent." [11] Initially, we provided 11 documents agents analyze the multimodal data and evaluate the seed alphas
encompassing diverse backgrounds in both financial and computer based on their respective criteria. Each agent conducts a risk prefer-
science alpha mining research. Details of these documents are avail- ence analysis, assessing the seed alphas according to its predefined
able in Appendix 1. Through this process, Alpha Grail generated risk parameters. This ensures that the evaluation covers a wide spec-
nine categories comprising 100 seed alphas. trum of risk perspectives. Agents then select alpha factors that align
The LLM Filter & Category stage also integrates multimodal pro- with their risk preferences and market analyses, ensuring relevance
cessing capabilities. By incorporating multimodal data sources such and robustness under different market scenarios. To enhance the
as text, images, tables, and figures from the research documents, reliability of the selected alpha factors, a confidence scoring mech-
the LLM can provide a more comprehensive analysis and catego- anism is implemented. Each agent assigns a confidence score to the
rization of the seed alphas. This multimodal approach enhances the alpha factors based on their analysis and historical performance,
LLM’s ability to capture intricate details and relationships within reflecting the agent’s assessment of the alpha factor’s predictive
the research, leading to a more robust and diverse Seed Alpha power and robustness. Selected alpha factors undergo rigorous
Factory. backtesting using historical market data to evaluate their perfor-
The output of this stage is a structured set of seed alphas cate- mance under various market conditions. This step is crucial for
gorized into distinct financial domains such as Momentum, Mean identifying the most promising alpha factors for the final strategy.
Reversion, Volatility, and Fundamental analysis. Each category in- Key evaluation metrics include performance indicators such as the
cludes specific alpha names and corresponding alpha codes, which Information Coefficient (IC) and Sharpe Ratio etc.[12] Additionally,
Automate Strategy Finding with LLM in Quant investment Conference acronym ’XX, June 03–05, 2018, Woodstock, NY
Algorithm 1 Category-Based Alpha Selection generalizability and prevent overfitting, a separate validation set
Input: categories C = {𝐶 1, ..., 𝐶𝑚 }, each 𝐶𝑖 containing a set of is utilized. This methodology establishes a robust framework for
Alphas, confidence threshold 𝑋 selected Alphas A = {} predicting future yields based on historical alpha values, thus form-
1: for each category 𝐶𝑖 ∈ C do ing an effective investment strategy. The DNN model processes the
2: A𝑖 = SelectBestAlphas(𝐶𝑖 ); input data through the hidden layer, transforming it with learned
3: for each 𝛼 ∈ A𝑖 do weights and biases. The final output is generated by applying an-
4: if ConfidenceScore(𝛼) > 𝑋 then other set of weights, biases, and an activation function in the output
5: A = A ∪ {𝛼 }; layer. Our approach demonstrates the efficacy of leveraging deep
6: end if learning techniques to optimize alpha weights, thereby enhancing
7: end for the predictive performance of investment strategies.
8: end for
9: return A 4 Experiment
Our research aims to develop a comprehensive LLM-driven alpha
mining framework that operates without human intervention. This
seed alpha factors from each category must meet specific confidence framework is uniquely capable of processing multimodal infor-
score thresholds to be considered for the final selection, ensuring mation and adapting to varying market conditions. A critical in-
that only the most reliable and robust alpha factors are chosen. novation in our system is the introduction of a confidence score,
To automate the selection process, we designed the Category- designed to mitigate potential hallucinations during the LLM’s seed
Based Alpha Selection algorithm. This algorithm identifies and alpha selection process. By integrating the results of seed alpha back
selects alphas from different categories based on their confidence tests with multimodal market conditions, our framework enables a
scores. The input consists of multiple categories, each containing more thorough understanding of market dynamics, and the senti-
a set of alphas and a confidence threshold. The algorithm begins ments associated with each category of seed alphas. The primary
with an empty set of selected alphas and iterates through each objectives of our research are as follows: Evaluate Framework Effec-
category, using the SelectBestAlphas function to determine the most tiveness: Assess whether our LLM-driven framework can identify
promising candidates. Each alpha’s confidence score is evaluated, alphas that are better suited to prevailing market conditions com-
and those exceeding the threshold are included in the final set. This pared to traditional methods. Multimodal knowledge extraction:
process repeats for all categories, ensuring a rigorous selection of Analyze the framework’s capability to process and integrate diverse
alphas that meet the confidence criteria from all categories. The data inputs, enhancing its understanding of market dynamics and
final output is a set of selected alphas that have successfully passed sentiment analysis. Confidence Scoring Mechanism: Investigate
the confidence evaluation. the effectiveness of the confidence score in reducing the likelihood
The multimodal and multi-agent evaluation stage leverages ad- of hallucinations during the alpha selection process. Overall Strat-
vanced data integration and diverse analytical perspectives to en- egy Performance: Determine whether our comprehensive strategy,
sure a comprehensive assessment of alpha factors. The incorpora- leveraging the LLM-driven framework, can outperform the market.
tion of confidence scoring adds an additional layer of reliability, To validate the effectiveness of our framework, we have con-
making the selection process more robust. This stage is crucial ducted a series of experiments addressing the following research
for identifying the most promising alpha factors and constructing questions (RQs):
a resilient investment strategy that can adapt to varying market • RQ1: Does the framework can achieve multimodal knowl-
conditions. The integration of multimodal data sources and the edge extraction and capture the new alpha with the market
utilization of a multi-agent system provide a nuanced and in-depth condition difference?
evaluation, laying a solid foundation for the subsequent stages of • RQ2: Does our LLM-driven alpha mining framework outper-
the framework. form current alpha factory in terms of trading effectiveness?
• RQ3: Can our overall strategy, incorporating the LLM-driven
3.4 Optimal weight alpha strategy framework and confidence scoring, consistently beat the
To optimize the weights of selected seed alphas, we employ a Deep market?
Neural Network (DNN) to fit alpha values to future yields. The
network architecture comprises three layers: an input layer, a hid- 4.1 Datasets
den layer, and an output layer. The input layer takes daily alpha Our study focuses on financial data from the Chinese A-shares
calculations derived from historical closing prices as input features. market, specifically targeting the SSE 50 Index. The dataset encom-
The hidden layer, equipped with ten nodes, utilizes ReLU activa- passes six primary features as original inputs for our Alpha factors:
tion functions to introduce non-linearity and enhance the model’s open, close, high, low, volume, and volume-weighted average price
learning capability. [13] The output layer, consisting of a single (VWAP). To ensure rigorous evaluation and robust model perfor-
node, predicts future yields. During the training phase, the network mance, the dataset is divided into distinct time periods: Training
employs backpropagation and gradient descent to minimize the loss Set: January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2022 and Test Set: January 1,
function, which quantifies the discrepancy between predicted and 2023, to December 31, 2023. Our experiments integrate financial
actual yields. This iterative process adjusts the network’s weights reports and factor performances of the 50 constituent companies
and biases to improve prediction accuracy. To ensure the model’s of the SSE 50 Index, providing a comprehensive view of the market.
Conference acronym ’XX, June 03–05, 2018, Woodstock, NY Trovato et al.
Aspect Details
Primary Features Open, Close, High, Low, Volume, VWAP
Alpha Factors Custom factors based on price, volume,
financial ratios, moving averages, senti-
ment analysis
Financial Reports Quarterly and Annual reports from SSE
50 constituent companies
Time Periods - Training: Jan 1, 2021 - Dec 31, 2022
- Test: Jan 1, 2023 - Dec 31, 2023
Market Coverage SSE 50 Index, covering major sectors in
the Chinese A-shares market
Evaluation Criteria Causal relationships, Alpha factor per-
formance, model robustness
4.2 Research Questions 4.2.2 RQ2: Does our LLM-driven alpha mining framework outper-
4.2.1 RQ1: Does the framework can achieve multimodal knowledge form current alpha factory in terms of trading effectiveness? When
extraction and capture the new alpha with the market condition dif- evaluating the performance of selected seed alpha signals, the pri-
ference? We present a prompt architecture (Figure 4) that incorpo- mary metric is the Information Coefficient (IC). [25] These metrics
rates multimodal market information into a Large Language Model provide insights into the predictive power of alpha values for future
(LLM) to achieve multimodal knowledge extraction and select opti- returns. The Information Coefficient (IC) measures the correlation
mal seed alphas under varying market conditions. By integrating between predicted alpha values and actual future returns. It is quan-
textual data from financial news sentiment, numerical data from tified using Pearson’s correlation coefficient, which assesses the
company financial statements, and visual data from trading charts, linear relationship between two variables. A higher IC indicates
our framework provides comprehensive stock analysis. This data a stronger predictive relationship, meaning the alpha values are
fusion ensures a holistic market view, enhancing decision-making. more effective at forecasting returns.
Contextual analysis adjusts parameters based on market trends and
sector performance, ensuring relevant and accurate alpha selection. 𝐼𝐶 = 𝜎 (𝑢, 𝑣)
Automate Strategy Finding with LLM in Quant investment Conference acronym ’XX, June 03–05, 2018, Woodstock, NY
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(
CLOSE-
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CLOSE.
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ATR-DELAY(
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1)-
1)
2 (RSI - DELAY(RSI, 14)) -1.0265 -0.0225
3 (CLOSE - DELAY(SMA(CLOSE, 14), 7)) -0.1978 0.0193
4 (MA(CLOSE, 20) - CLOSE) 0.0556 -0.0186
5 (SMA(CLOSE, 20) - CLOSE) -0.945 -0.0186
Figure 5: Sample Experiment on Different Market Status 6 (MAX(HIGH, 20) - CLOSE) -0.4053 -0.0185
Input and Alpha Selection 7 (100-RSI) -0.3199 0.0194
8 (BOLL_UP - BOLL_DOWN) / SMA(CLOSE, 20) 3.6186 0.0278
9 STD(CLOSE, 10) / STD(CLOSE, 50) -0.183 0.0236
10 VOLUME / MARKET_CAP -3.2145 -0.0194
11 VOLUME * CLOSE -0.0058 0.0187
12 (EPS / DELAY(EPS, 1) - 1) -1.8351 -0.0215
Weighted Combination -0.0587
Figure 7: Backtest Result on SSE50 Comparison Between Index and Our performance
alphas. [16] The gplearn library is enhanced with time-series opera- 5.3 Multimodal & Multi-Agent LLM
tors specific forming an alpha-mining framework that incorporates The integration of multimodal large language models (LLMs) in
mutual information as the fitness measure. [17] AlphaEvolve evolv- the investment sector has been extensively researched, highlight-
ing new alphas from existing ones, using algorithmic graphs for ing their potential to transform financial technology. Li et al. [35]
more complex and accurate predictions, though this can reduce demonstrate how multimodal LLMs can process diverse data types
interpretability and increase the risk of overfitting. [5] Another such as text, images, and numerical data, offering comprehensive
approach is Machine learning-based alphas are predictive models insights and predictive capabilities. Ouyang et al. [36] emphasize
designed to generate trading signals or investment strategies using the robustness of these models in developing investment strategies
advanced machine learning techniques. Key algorithms include neu- that mitigate market volatility risks. By analyzing textual data from
ral networks, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) [18] and news articles and social media, these models can gauge investor
Transformer models [19], which excel at capturing complex tempo- emotions and predict market movements with higher accuracy. [37].
ral dependencies in time series data. Decision trees, exemplified by This is particularly beneficial in high-frequency trading, where an-
models like XGBoost [20] and LightGBM [21], are valued for their ticipating market shifts can provide a competitive edge [38]. In
interpretability and ability to handle high-dimensional data. Ex- portfolio management, multimodal LLMs offer personalized invest-
plainable AI (XAI) [22] methods and tools provide deeper insights ment advice tailored to individual risk profiles and financial goals.
into how these models make decisions, fostering greater under- [39]. These models analyze a client’s financial history and current
standing and trust among investors. Specialized network structures market conditions to recommend optimal asset allocations and
for stock forecasting, such as SFM [23], which employs a DFT-like strategies, enhancing client satisfaction and portfolio performance.
mechanism, have also been developed. More recent research focuses Additionally, they automate routine tasks such as data entry and
on integrating non-standard data with time series data. For example, report generation, allowing investment professionals to focus on
REST [24] combines multi-granular time series data with historical strategic activities [40].
event data to model the overall market. HIST [25] uses concept The application of multi-agent LLMs further enhances market
graphs alongside regular time series data to capture commonalities analysis and portfolio management. Zhang et al. [38] highlight how
in future trends across different stock groups. these models leverage vast datasets and advanced natural language
processing to interpret financial reports, news, and social media sen-
timent, providing nuanced insights. Multi-agent systems simulate
various market scenarios and stress tests, enabling fund managers
to devise robust strategies resilient to market volatility [41]. The
5.2 Financial Domain LLM collaborative operation of multiple agents ensures diverse strate-
gies can be tested and optimized in parallel, promoting a balanced
The development of general-domain large language models (LLMs) approach to risk and return [42]. However, the implementation
has spurred interest in Finance Large Language Models (Fin-LLMs). of these advanced models raises ethical and governance consid-
While general LLMs are well-studied, Fin-LLMs are still emerging erations. Ensuring transparency, accountability, and adherence to
[26–29]. Open-source LLMs, such as LLaMA[30], BLOOM [31], and ethical guidelines and regulatory standards is crucial to maintaining
Flan-T5[32], provide flexibility and privacy on self-hosted servers investor trust and market integrity. Managing potential biases in
but may underperform compared to proprietary models. Fine-tuned data and model training is also essential to prevent systemic risks
financial LLMs outperform base models (e.g., LLaMA) and other and ensure fair outcomes [43, 44].
open-source LLMs (e.g., BLOOM) in finance tasks, showing en-
hanced domain-specific comprehension [33]. However, in gener-
ative tasks, their performance is comparable or inferior to gen- 5.4 Discussion
eral LLMs like ChatGPT and GPT-4, indicating the need for better The term “formulaic alpha” is often associated with investing, the
domain-specific datasets [34]. concept of simple and interpretable formulaic predictors, which can
Automate Strategy Finding with LLM in Quant investment Conference acronym ’XX, June 03–05, 2018, Woodstock, NY
be combined into more expressive models and many more applica- Computational Linguistics (ACL), pages 1970–1979, 2018.
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[37] H. Zhao, Z. Liu, Z. Wu, and et al. Revolutionizing finance with llms: An overview C Sample prompt for Seed Alpha selection
of applications and insights, 2024.
[38] W. Zhang, L. Zhao, H. Xia, and et al. A multimodal foundation agent for financial 1. The training set includes:
trading: Tool-augmented, diversified, and generalist. Technical report, 2024. • Financial Reports: 4 quarters (from December 31, 2021, to
[39] J. Li, X. Wang, S. Zhu, and et al. Cumo: Scaling multimodal llm with co-upcycled
mixture-of-experts, 2024. September 30, 2022) for 50 companies listed in the SSE 50.
[40] A. Luz. Enhancing the interpretability and explainability of ai-driven risk models • Factor Analysis Data: 37 factors (from September 30, 2022,
using llm capabilities. Technical report, EasyChair, 2024. to December 30, 2022) divided into groups: Momentum,
[41] Y. Talebirad and A. Nadiri. Multi-agent collaboration: Harnessing the power of
intelligent llm agents, 2023. Mean Reversion, Volatility, Fundamental, Quality, Growth,
[42] Q. Wang, Z. Wang, Y. Su, and et al. Rethinking the bounds of llm reasoning: Are Technical, Macro Economics. The metric used is the Infor-
multi-agent discussions the key?, 2024.
[43] Yangyang Yu and et al. Finmem: A performance-enhanced llm trading agent with
mation Coefficient (IC).
layered memory and character design. In Proceedings of the AAAI Symposium 2. Objective: Learn the relationship between the performance
Series, volume 3, 2024.
[44] T. Nathan Mundhenk, Mikel Landajuela, Ruben Glatt, Daniel M. Faissol, and Bren-
of financial reports for the first four quarters from 2022 to 2023 and
den K. Petersen. Symbolic regression via neural-guided genetic programming the factor analysis data (IC) for each of the 37 factors in the last
population seeding. In 9th International Conference on Learning Representations quarter of 2022.
(ICLR), Virtual Event, Austria, 2021.
[45] Chirag Deb, Fan Zhang, Junjing Yang, Siew Eang Lee, and Kwok Wei Shah. A 3. When provided with the test set (performance of the
review on time series forecasting techniques for building energy consumption. first 4 quarters of 2023):
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 74:902–924, 2017.
[46] Aditya Ashok, Manimaran Govindarasu, and Venkataramana Ajjarapu. Online • Select the factors that will perform best in the last quarter
detection of stealthy false data injection attacks in power system state estimation. of the SSE 50.
IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 9(3):1636–1646, 2018. • Provide a confidence score & the risk preference for your
[47] Suppawong Tuarob, Conrad S. Tucker, Soundar R. T. Kumara, C. Lee Giles,
Aaron L. Pincus, David E. Conroy, and Nilam Ram. How are you feeling: A selection for each selected Alpha factor.
personalized methodology for predicting mental states from temporally observ- 4. Selection Criteria:
able physical and behavioral information. Journal of Biomedical Informatics,
68:1–19, 2017. • If no relationship between financial reports and IC can be
[48] Saeed Masoudnia and Reza Ebrahimpour. Mixture of experts: a literature survey. found, select the Alpha factor with the highest IC value in
Artificial Intelligence Review, 42:275–293, 2014.
[49] Liping Wang, Jiawei Li, Lifan Zhao, Zhizhuo Kou, Xiaohan Wang, Xinyi Zhu, each group.
Hao Wang, Yanyan Shen, and Lei Chen. Methods for acquiring and incorporating • For verification of market information differences, if no re-
knowledge into stock price prediction: A survey. arXiv preprint arXiv:2308.04947,
2023.
lationship between financial reports and IR can be found,
select the Alpha factor with the highest IR value.
A Seed Alphas document lists for GPTs Received 20 February 2007; revised 12 March 2009; accepted 5 June 2009
Automate Strategy Finding with LLM in Quant investment Conference acronym ’XX, June 03–05, 2018, Woodstock, NY