UVA-G-0655

Jul. 22, 2021

What Are the Odds?

Introduction1

Martin Fuentes turned off his beeping alarm clock at 7:30 a.m. Instead of getting up, he closed his eyes and
tried to go back to sleep. “Just another 15 minutes,” he thought.

He had been up all night reading over his notes and doing calculations, thinking of a problem his uncle,
Oscar Ramirez, had asked him to solve. Lists of numbers had occupied Fuentes’s thoughts for hours; later he
had even begun dreaming about them. Late last night, after all the workers had gone home from Lawrence Lair,
Ramirez had Fuentes run calculations on his ion machine, studying the relationships between the numbers from
the machine’s results. “Measures of central tendency,” was what Ramirez called the measures, and Fuentes had
to write it down to remember the term. Ramirez told Fuentes that these measures were a way of finding the
mean, median, and mode of the machine readings that Fuentes had been writing down.

All night, Fuentes had been measuring the temperature of the machine, checking every hour from 10:00
p.m. to 3:00 a.m. He had five readings: 75°F, 75°F, 64.5°F, 63°F, and 50°F.2 Fuentes knew that to find the
mean of these temperatures, he had to add all the temperatures in the list and then divide them by 5, the total
number of temperature readings. After he arranged all the temperatures in numerical order, he found the
median number simply by finding the middle value. That was easy enough. Finally, Fuentes remembered that
the mode was the number that appeared the most in a list of numbers. His list was not long, so that was easy.
Needing the machine to record an average (mean) temperature of 55°F, Ramirez had asked Fuentes to find the
sixth temperature needed to reach this mean.

Fuentes drifted off to sleep again as he thought about the solution to his uncle’s question. He wanted to
have the answer by the next time he saw Ramirez.

The next time he woke up, the clock said 8:00 a.m. Fuentes jumped out of bed. He was late! He was
supposed to be on the construction site at 8:30 a.m., and it usually took him between 28 and 30 minutes to get
there. He pulled on his clothes and got ready as quickly as he could.

1 Resilience Education, a nonprofit founded at the Darden School of Business, provides high-quality, customized education for vulnerable populations.

For more information, contact [email protected].

2 F stood for Fahrenheit.

This fictional case was prepared by Safiya Sinclair, Research Assistant; and Kimberly Corum, Assistant Professor at Towson University; under the
guidance of Gregory B. Fairchild, Isidore Horween Research Professor of Business Administration. It was written for a curriculum designed by Resilience
Education as a basis for class discussion rather than to illustrate effective or ineffective handling of an administrative situation. Copyright © 2021 by the
University of Virginia Darden School Foundation, Charlottesville, VA. All rights reserved. To order copies, send an email to
[email protected]. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, used in a spreadsheet, or transmitted in any form or by
any means—electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise—without the permission of the Darden School Foundation. Our goal is to publish materials of the
highest quality, so please submit any errata to [email protected].
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Traffic Light Problem

Fuentes had no time for breakfast. He texted his uncle: On my way! No reply came within the next couple
of minutes. Fuentes panicked as he got in his car and headed for Lawrence Lair. He took every shortcut he
could, driving toward the intersection of Maple and Bridgewood. Once there, he knew he could either go
straight on Maple, where he would hit four traffic lights, or he could turn right on Bridgewood and hit three
traffic lights. If he were lucky, the light to go straight would be green. If it was yellow, he would stop—
something his mother had drilled into him constantly when he was learning to drive. Even now, no matter
where he was, or what was happening, Fuentes always stopped and waited on a yellow light. He wondered how
likely he was to get a green light down either street. Yesterday, on the way to work, Fuentes had turned right
on Bridgewood and had to stop at two red lights. The day before that, he had gone straight on Maple and only
had to stop at one red light. But he had also been there 10 minutes earlier on each of the last two days, and
hadn’t been all that concerned about picking the street that gave him the greatest chance of getting all green
lights. He wondered what his luck would be this time. He tapped the steering wheel and calculated.

Since Fuentes had started working with his uncle this summer, he noticed himself frequently counting and
calculating things, seeking out the relationship between groups of numbers and groups of other things. Fuentes
knew that the traffic lights on Maple followed a cycle of 55 seconds green, 5 seconds yellow, and 25 seconds
red, and that the lights on Bridgewood followed a cycle of 40 seconds green, 10 seconds yellow, and 35 seconds
red. If he wanted to have the greatest chance of hitting all green lights, should he go straight on Maple or make
a right on Bridgewood? What were his odds for a hitting a green light?

The Debate

When Fuentes finally got to Lawrence Lair, no one seemed to notice he was late. “Thank goodness,” he
thought.

Everyone seemed to be in a hurry. There were two black limos parked along the driveway, and there were
men in suits milling about. Fuentes wondered if some special visitor was on site. Above, on the house’s newly
finished marble balcony, he saw a stern-looking woman in a pink coat, surveying the property. She looked like
a fluffy pink owl perched up there, and Fuentes could see the glints of light off her jewelry from where he
stood. “It’s mighty hot for that coat,” Fuentes thought.

All this had to mean that Mayor Lawrence must be visiting. Fuentes ran down to the pool house to find
his uncle and Francesca Hugo talking to a very tall, very broad-shouldered man. They were looking at blueprints
and figures and were having a serious conversation. His uncle looked up and gave him a curt nod. Fuentes
could tell that Ramirez had been too busy this morning to be mad about his lateness. Fuentes exhaled in relief—
he really loved this job and did not want to mess it up.

Fuentes didn’t want to disturb their meeting, so he turned to leave, and besides, Lawrence was very
intimidating, as he laughed loudly at something Hugo had said. Fuentes had only seen the mayor giving speeches
on TV, and he was a little star-struck.

“Come here, young man,” Lawrence said, turning to greet Fuentes before he could leave the pool house.
The mayor had a deep, booming voice that filled the entire room. Fuentes thought he looked like a basketball
player as he craned his neck to look up at him—a taller Shaquille O’Neal, with slightly greying hair and a serious
face.
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Fuentes shook his giant hand, unsure of the right thing to say. What came out was “Hello, Mr. Mayor, sir.
Very pleased to meet you. I’m Martin Fuentes.”

“Yes. Your uncle and Ms. Hugo have been telling me all about you. Apparently you’ve helped them solve
some of their problems here this summer?”

“Well, only after they showed me how,” said Fuentes almost bowing, as if he was addressing royalty. “I’m
being ridiculous,” he thought to himself.

The mayor laughed again. “Loosen up, son. I won’t bite. That’s my wife,” Lawrence said, pointing back
toward the house. Fuentes bit back a chuckle as he thought of the pink owl roosting near the new living roof.
She could probably be seen from space. But he thought better of saying that to the mayor.

“Your uncle, Ms. Hugo, and I were talking about my television debate this Tuesday,” the mayor said to
Fuentes, who desperately hoped he wasn’t about to be quizzed on politics.

“I don’t know much about politics,” Fuentes said.

“Don’t worry, I think you can still help him,” said Ramirez, sounding encouraging.

“Well, Martin,” the mayor said, “there are six of us scheduled for Tuesday night’s debate. And one of my
opponents, Chip Kenner, insists on speaking first—what a nuisance. Now let’s just say that all the speakers
agree to have Kenner speak first; how many different possible ways are there to schedule the order of the
remaining five speeches?”

Fuentes thought about it. He was stumped at first.

“Well, in order to answer the mayor’s question, we can start small,” Ramirez said helpfully.

“Yes,” the mayor agreed. “Let’s see. When you got dressed this morning, how many shirts did you consider
wearing?”

Fuentes considered this. He didn’t want to tell them he had just thrown on the first thing he saw because
he was late. “Four shirts,” he answered quickly.

“And how many different pants could you have worn? How many pairs of shoes?” Ramirez asked.

“Five pants. Three different pairs of shoes.”

“Okay. So taking that into consideration, how many different outfit combinations could you have worn
today?,” the mayor asked.

Fuentes thought for a couple seconds, imagining himself in each different possible outfit. “Sixty different
outfit combos,” he said, after doing some multiplication in his head.

“Good, my boy, good,” said the mayor, patting him on the back. “So they weren’t lying. You are a quick
study. Now, remind me again of what we call that kind of calculation, Oscar?”

“That’s a simple counting principle,” Ramirez said, feeling proud of Fuentes. “That is how we determine
the total outcomes of problems for multiple events. And how we start to determine probabilities.”
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“This reminds me of when we play Yahtzee, Uncle,” Fuentes said, recalling one of his favorite games to
play with his uncle. He liked it because most of the time, the winner was left up to chance. “Trying to figure
out the odds of all the dice coming up with the numbers you want. And all the different combinations and
possibilities.”

“Exactly,” Ramirez said. “In Yahtzee, we have five regular dice. How many different outcomes could you
possibly roll with all five dice?”

Fuentes got out his notepad and did some quick calculations. “Wow. 7,776 different dice outcomes! I had
no idea that there were so many possibilities!” Fuentes exclaimed.

Probability and Yahtzee

“Yes, you’ve already caught on!” Hugo chimed in. “Probability is how likely it is that a specific thing will
happen. The probability of an event is all the different ways something can happen, divided by the number of
all the possible outcomes. It’s another way to navigate all the patterns in randomness of our world.”

“So what is the probability of throwing all five dice and having them all turn up the same number on the
very first roll in Yahtzee?,” the mayor asked.

Fuentes returned to his notepad (Exhibit 1). Suddenly, he recalled the many mathematical calculations
from this game he loved to play.

“When you’ve figured that out,” said the mayor, “then you can tell me how many possible ways there are
to schedule the order of the remaining five speeches on Tuesday, if we allow Chip to go first.”

“Okay, Mr. Mayor.”

“What if you all picked your speaking order randomly from a hat instead?” asked Hugo. “That only seems
fair.”

“Well, I only want to speak first or speak last,” said Mayor Lawrence. “What are my odds of picking first
or picking last randomly on Tuesday?”

Fuentes got to work immediately. He wanted to impress the mayor, so he calculated all these answers for
him, even though he was sure his uncle already knew the answers in a nanosecond. Mayor Lawrence was much
friendlier than Fuentes had hoped, and he was happy to have met him today.

Lawrence Lair Polls

“Once you have my answers, son, maybe you can then help me interpret the information on all these graphs
and charts. All this polling data. You can start by finding out how many of the 120 workers on this property
will vote for me!” The mayor laughed and patted Fuentes on the shoulder. “My advisers have all the answers,
but I don’t like their answers. Maybe yours will be better!” Lawrence laughed again, filling the room with his
deep voice. Then he pulled out a cigar from his coat pocket and left the pool house. “I’ll be waiting to hear
from you, kid,” he said, winking at Fuentes as he slipped out the door.

Ramirez and Hugo beamed at Fuentes, clearly happy with how well his meeting with the mayor had gone.
Fuentes knew the mayor was only joking, but he still took his assignment seriously. Just for fun, he’d already
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calculated the probability of rolling Yahtzee on the first try. After that, he sat down to calculate all the possible
combinations of the order of the five remaining speeches at the debate. Fuentes then calculated the probability
of the mayor randomly picking the first scheduled slot and the sixth slot.

When he was satisfied with his answers, he went to poll all the workers of Lawrence Lair to find out who
they were voting for (Exhibit 2), and used the information he had gathered to make both a graph and a pie
chart for the mayor. “Well, I’ve become an overachiever,” Fuentes thought to himself, and as he looked over
his work, he was truly pleased.
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Exhibit 1
What Are the Odds?
Martin Fuentes’s Notepad: Probability Concepts

Big Ideas

• Measures of Center
o Mean: Average value in a set of data
o Median: Middle value in a set of ordered data
o Mode: Value that occurs most often (can have one mode, multiple modes, or no mode)
o Range: Difference between the maximum and minimum data values
• Probability
o What is it?
▪ The likelihood that an event will occur.
o How do we find it?
𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒
▪ 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 = 𝐴𝑙𝑙 𝑃𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
o How do we write it?
▪ A fraction, decimal, or percentage.
o Probabilities range from…
Impossible Equally Likely and Unlikely Certain
0 ½ 1
Drawing two aces of hearts A fair coin landing on Rolling a number less than 7
from a fair deck of cards heads on a die numbered 1 to 6
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Exhibit 1 (continued)
Martin Fuentes’s Notepad: Probability Concepts

Guided Examples

(1) Find the mean, median, mode, and range of the data set below:

13, 11, 5, 6, 9, 21

Mean Median Mode Range

13 + 11 + 5 + 6 + 9 + 22 Ordered Set: There are no numbers 21 − 5 = 16
6 5, 6, 9, 11, 13, 21 that occur more than
any other number.
The range is 16.
The mean is 11. There are an even
number of data There is no mode.
values, so the middle
value is the mean of 9
and 11:

9 + 11
= 10
2

The median is 10.

(2) Fuentes’s scores on his first three math tests were 85, 73, and 68. What does he need to score on the
fourth test for his overall average to be 80?

In order for the average (mean) to be 80, the sum of Fuentes’s four test scores needs to be 320 (80 ×
4 = 320). This means he needs to score 94 on the last test (85 + 73 + 68 + 94 = 320).

Algebraically: Let x = Fuentes’s score on the fourth test

85 + 73 + 68 + 𝑥 226 + 𝑥
= 80 → = 80 → 226 + 𝑥 = 4(80) → 226 + 𝑥 = 320 → 𝑥
4 4
= 320 − 226

Fuentes needs to score a 94 on his fourth test.

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Exhibit 1 (continued)
Martin Fuentes’s Notepad: Probability Concepts

(3) What is the probability of rolling a pair when rolling two six-sided dice?

There are 36 possible outcomes when rolling two six-sided dice:

(6 outcomes for the first die) × (6 outcomes for the second die) = 36 possible outcomes

There are six ways to roll a pair: 1–1, 2–2, 3–3, 4–4, 5–5, 6–6

6 6÷6 1
𝑃(𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑟𝑠) = = =
36 36 ÷ 6 6

You have a 1/6 chance of rolling a pair.

Practice Exercises: Probability

(A) Fuentes’s scores on his first three math tests were 95, 92, and 86. What does Fuentes have to score on
the fourth test for his overall average to be exactly 93?
(B) To get ready for his summer job, Fuentes bought 3 pairs of pants, 5 shirts, and 2 pairs of boots. How
many different outfits consisting of 1 pair of pants, 1 shirt, and 1 pair of boots can he make?
(C) A bag contains 12 white marbles and 8 black marbles. What is the probability that you’ll randomly
draw a black marble?
(D) The six faces of a cube are numbered 1 through 6. If the cube is rolled 250 times, what is the expected
number of times a 3 will land face up?

Source: All exhibits were created by the authors.

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Exhibit 2
What Are the Odds?
Martin Fuentes’s Notepad: Polling Data

Of the 120 workers polled…

• 90 workers said that they will be voting for Mayor Lawrence.
• 12 workers said that they will not be voting for Mayor Lawrence.
• 18 workers said that they are undecided.

Practice Exercises – Creating Data Displays

(A) Create a bar graph to represent the polling data.

(B) Create a pie graph to represent the polling data.

(C) Do you think the data collected is an accurate representation of Mayor Lawrence’s polling numbers?
Why or why not?