Philadelphia University

Lecture Notes for 650364

Probability & Random Variables

Chapter 1:
Lecture 2: Probability Definition, Joint, Marginal and
Conditional Probability
Department of Communication & Electronics Engineering

Instructor
Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh
Email: [email protected]
Website: http://www.philadelphia.edu.jo/academics/qhamarsheh

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 1

 Probability
1) Introduction
2) Set Definitions
3) Set Operations
4) Probability Introduced Through Sets and Relative Frequency
5) Joint and Conditional Probability
6) Total Probability and Bayes’ Theorem
7) Independent Events
8) Combined Experiments
9) Bernoulli Trials
Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 2
 4) Probability Introduced through Sets and Relative Frequency
 Most three approaches used for the definition and discussion of
probability are:
 Classical Probability based on sample space (mathematical
approach based on probability theory, set theory and using the
axiomatic definition of probability.
 Relative frequency or empirical probability which is based
more on engineering or scientific observations.
 Subjective probability made by a person’s knowledge of the
situation.
 Probability Experiments:
 Chance processes, such as flipping a coin, rolling a die, or
drawing a card at random from a well-shuffled deck are
called probability experiments. A probability experiment is
a chance process that leads to well defined outcomes or
results.
 An outcome of a probability experiment is the result of a single trial
of a probability experiment.

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 3

 o Each outcome of a probability experiment occurs at random.
This means you cannot predict with certainty which outcome
will occur when the experiment is conducted.
o Each outcome of the experiment is equally likely unless
otherwise stated. That means that each outcome has the same
probability of occurring.
o Sample Points: These outcomes are called sample points.
 The set of all possible outcomes (realizations) of a probability
experiment is called a sample space and denoted by S.
 Sample spaces for various probability experiments

 An event then usually consists of one or more outcomes of the

sample space. Certain subsets of S are referred to as events.

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 4

 o An event with one outcome is called a simple event.
o When an event consists of two or more outcomes, it is called a
compound event.
o Mutually exclusive: If two events have no common outcomes
they are called mutually exclusive.
o Events A and B are mutually exclusive, if only one of them can
occur, that is,

 Example: Dice
o Sample space 𝑺 = {𝟏; 𝟐; 𝟑; 𝟒; 𝟓 ; 𝟔}
o Events are the subsets of S, e.g.,
 A = "outcome is even" = {𝟐; 𝟒; 𝟔}.
 B = "outcome is > 4" = {𝟓; 𝟔}.
 Example: Rolling two dice
o Sample space is
Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 5
 𝑺 = {(𝟏; 𝟏); (𝟏; 𝟐); (𝟏; 𝟑); (𝟏; 𝟒); (𝟏; 𝟓); (𝟏; 𝟔);
(𝟐; 𝟏); (𝟐; 𝟐); (𝟐; 𝟑); (𝟐; 𝟒); (𝟐; 𝟓); (𝟐; 𝟔);
(𝟑; 𝟏); (𝟑; 𝟐); (𝟑; 𝟑); (𝟑; 𝟒); (𝟑; 𝟓); (𝟑; 𝟔);
(𝟒; 𝟏); (𝟒; 𝟐); (𝟒; 𝟑); (𝟒; 𝟒); (𝟒; 𝟓); (𝟒; 𝟔);
(𝟓; 𝟏); (𝟓; 𝟐); (𝟓; 𝟑); (𝟓; 𝟒); (𝟓; 𝟓); (𝟓; 𝟔);
(𝟔; 𝟏); (𝟔; 𝟐); (𝟔; 𝟑); (𝟔; 𝟒); (𝟔; 𝟓); (𝟔; 𝟔)}:
o Events are all subsets of S, e.g.,
 A = "outcomes are the same":
= {(𝟏; 𝟏); (𝟐; 𝟐); (𝟑; 𝟑); (𝟒; 𝟒); (𝟓; 𝟓); (𝟔; 𝟔)}.
 B = "outcome of the 1. roll is 1":
= {(𝟏; 𝟏); (𝟏; 𝟐); (𝟏; 𝟑); (𝟏; 𝟒); (𝟏; 𝟓); (𝟏; 𝟔)}.
 Discrete Sample Space:
o Example: Experiment of rolling a single die and observing
the number that shows up.
There are six elements 𝑺 = {𝟏, 𝟐, 𝟑, 𝟒, 𝟓, 𝟔} ← Discrete Sample
Space.
 Continuous Sample Space:
o Example: Experiment of obtaining a number by spinning the
pointer on a wheel of chance numbered from 0 to 12.

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 6

 𝑺 = {𝟎 ≤ 𝒔 ≤ 𝟏𝟐} ← Continuous Sample Space
 Probability Definition and Axioms:
o Let 𝑺 be the sample space of a random Experiment. Suppose
that to each event 𝑨 of 𝑺, a number denoted by 𝑷(𝑨) is
associated with 𝑨. If 𝑷 satisfies the following axioms, then it
is called a probability and the number 𝑷(𝑨) is said to be the
probability of 𝑨.

o Sample spaces are used in classical probability to

determine the numerical probability that an event will

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 7

 occur. The formula for determining the probability of an
event E is

 Mathematical Model of Experiments:

o A real experiment is defined mathematically by three things:
 Assignment of the sample space S
 Definition of events of interest
 Making probability assignments to the events such
that the axioms are satisfied.
 Example: A die is tossed; find the probability of each event:
a) Getting a two
b) Getting an even number
c) Getting a number less than 5
 Solution: The sample space is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, so there are six
outcomes in the sample space.
a) P(2) = 1/6.
b) P(even number)= 3/6=1/2;

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 8

 c) P(number less than 5) = 4/6= 2/3;
 Example: The experiment of tossing a coin once, the sample space
is 𝑺 = {𝑯, 𝑻}. Let events 𝑨 = {𝑯} and 𝑩 = {𝑻} then:
𝑷(𝑨) = 𝑷(𝑩) = 𝟏/𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟓 and 𝑷(𝑺) = 𝟏
 Example: The experiment of rolling a single die, the sample
space is 𝑺 = {𝟏, 𝟐, 𝟑, 𝟒, 𝟓, 𝟔}. Let events 𝑨 = {𝟏, 𝟑, 𝟓} and 𝑩 = {𝟐, 𝟒}
then:
𝑷(𝑨) = 𝟑/𝟔 = 𝟎. 𝟓 , 𝑷(𝑩) = 𝟐/𝟔 , 𝑷(𝑨𝑼𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑩) = 𝟓/𝟔
 Example: An experiment consists of observing the sum of the
numbers showing up when two dice are thrown. If three events
define by:
𝑨 = {𝒔𝒖𝒎 = 𝟕},
𝑩 = {𝟖 < 𝒔𝒖𝒎 ≤ 𝟏𝟏},
and 𝑪 = {𝟏𝟎 < 𝒔𝒖𝒎}, then
𝑷(𝑨) = 𝟔/𝟑𝟔 , 𝑷(𝑩) = 𝟗/𝟑𝟔 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑷(𝑪) = 𝟑/𝟑𝟔

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 9

  The Relative frequency probability 𝑷 of event 𝑨 is defined as

𝒏
o The ratio 𝑨 is the relative frequency (or average number of
𝒏
success) for the event A.
 Example: If a fair coin is flipped 𝒏 times, the side that shows up
will be “heads” about 𝒏𝑯 times, then

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 10

  Example:
a) In a box there are 80 resistors each having the same size
and shape. From the 80 resistors 18 are 10Ω, 12 are 22Ω, 33
are 27Ω, and 17 are 47Ω. If the experiment is to randomly
draw out one resistor from the box with each one being
“equally likely” to be drawn, then
P(draw 10Ω ) = 18/80 ,
P(draw 22Ω ) = 12/80
P(draw 27Ω ) = 33/80 ,
P(draw 47Ω ) = 17/80
b) Next suppose a 22Ω resistor is drawn from the box and
not replaced, a second resistor is then drawn from the box.
What are the probabilities of drawing a resistor of any one of
the four values?
P(draw 10Ω / 22Ω) = 18/79 ,
P(draw 22Ω / 22Ω) = 11/79
P(draw 27Ω / 22Ω) = 33/79 ,
P(draw 47Ω / 22Ω) = 17/79

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 11

  Probabilities can be computed for situations that do not use sample
spaces. In such cases, frequency distributions are used and the
probability is called empirical probability.
 Empirical probability is sometimes called relative frequency
probability
𝑷(𝑬) = 𝒇𝒓𝒆𝒒𝒖𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒚 𝒐𝒇 𝑬/𝒔𝒖𝒎 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒇𝒓𝒆𝒒𝒖𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒊𝒆𝒔
 Example: Suppose a class of students consists of 4 freshmen, 8
sophomores, 6 juniors, and 7 seniors. The information can be
summarized in a frequency distribution as follows:

Using the frequency distribution shown previously, find the

probability of selecting a junior student at random.
Solution: Since there are 6 juniors and a total of 25 students,
P( junior)=6/25
Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 12
  Combining events | Summary

 Finding Sample spaces |Summary

 Two specific devices will be used to find sample spaces for
probability experiments. They are tree diagrams and tables.
 A tree diagram consists of branches corresponding to the outcomes
of two or more probability experiments that are done in sequence.
o In order to construct a tree diagram, use branches
corresponding to the outcomes of the first experiment. Then from
each branch of the first experiment draw branches that represent
the outcomes of the second experiment. You can continue the
process for further experiments.

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 13

 o Example: A coin is tossed and a die is rolled. Draw a tree
diagram and find the sample space.

Hence there are twelve outcomes. They are H1, H2, H3, H4,
H5, H6, T1,T2, T3, T4, T5, and T6.
Once the sample space has been found, probabilities for events
can be computed.
o Example: A coin is tossed and a die is rolled. Find the
probability of getting
a) A head on the coin and a 3 on the die.
b) A head on the coin.
c) A 4 on the die.

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 14

 Solution:
a) Since there are 12 outcomes in the sample space and
only one way to get a head on the coin and a three on the
die, P(H3)=1/12
b) Since there are six ways to get a head on the coin, namely
H1, H2, H3,H4, H5, and H6, P(head on the coin) =6/12=1/2
c) Since there are two ways to get a 4 on the die, namely H4
and T4, P(4 on the die) = 2/12= 1/6
 A table can be used for finding the sample space
 Example: when two dice are rolled. Since the first die can land in 6
ways and the second die can land in 6 ways, there are 6 × 6 or 36
outcomes in the sample space

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 15

  Probability Rules | Summary
 Rule 1: The probability of any event will always be a number from
zero to one. This can be denoted mathematically as 𝟎 ≤ 𝑷(𝑬) ≤ 𝟏.
Probabilities cannot be negative nor can they be greater than one

 Rule 2: When an event cannot occur, the probability will be zero.

o Example: A die is rolled; find the probability of getting a 7.
Solution: Since the sample space is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, and
there is no way to get a 7, P(7)=0.
 Rule 3: When an event is certain to occur, the probability is 1.
o Example: A die is rolled; find the probability of getting a number
less than 7.
Solution: Since all outcomes in the sample space are less than
7, the probability is 6/6=1.
 Rule 4: The sum of the probabilities of all of the outcomes in the
sample space is 1.

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 16

 Referring to the sample space for tossing two coins (HH, HT, TH,
TT), each outcome has a probability of 1/4 and the sum of the
probabilities of all of the outcomes is
𝟏/𝟒 + 𝟏/𝟒 + 𝟏/𝟒 + 𝟏/𝟒 = 𝟏
 Rule 5: The probability that an event will not occur is equal to 1 minus
the probability that the event will occur.

5) Joint and Conditional Probability

 In many engineering applications we often perform an experiment
that consists of many experiments, examples are:
o Observation the input and output digits of a binary
communication system.
o Observation of the trajectories of several objects in space.
 Suppose: E is the random experiment contains two subexperiments
E1 and E2.
o If
 S1 sample space for E1 with {a1, a2, …, an1} outcomes.
 S2 sample space for E2 with {b1, b2, …, bn2} outcomes.
o Then

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 17

  the sample space of the combined experiment is the Cartesian
product:
𝑺𝟏 ∗ 𝑺𝟐 = {(𝒂𝒊 , 𝒃𝒋 ): 𝒊 = 𝟏, 𝟐, … , 𝒏𝟏 ; 𝒋 = 𝟏, 𝟐, … , 𝒏𝟐 }
o If events 𝑨𝟏 , 𝑨𝟐 , … , 𝑨𝒏 are defined for S1
o If events 𝑩𝟏 , 𝑩𝟐 , … , 𝑩𝒎 are defined for S2
o Then events 𝑨𝒊 𝑩𝒋 are the events of the total experiment (see the
table below).
o We can define probability measures on S1, S2 and S as the
following:
Assume that
𝑵 : Number of outcomes for 𝑺;
𝑵𝑨 : Number of outcomes for 𝑨𝒊
𝑵𝑩 : Number of outcomes for 𝑩𝒋
𝑵𝑨𝑩 : Number of outcomes for 𝑨𝒊 ∩ 𝑩𝒋
 Joint Probability: the probability
𝑵
𝑷(𝑨𝒊 ∩ 𝑩𝒋 ) = 𝑨𝑩
𝑵
 The probability 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) is called the joint probability
for two events 𝑨 and 𝑩.

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 18

  It can be shown that:
𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑩) − 𝑷(𝑨 𝑼 𝑩)
 Equivalently:
𝑷(𝑨 𝑼 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑩) − 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)
 For mutually exclusive events:
𝑷(𝑨 𝑼 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑩) where 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝟎
 Marginal Probability : if events 𝑨𝟏 , 𝑨𝟐 , … , 𝑨𝒏 are mutually
exclusive and exhaustive, then
𝑩𝒋 = ∑𝒏𝒊=𝟏 𝑷(𝑨𝒊 ∩ 𝑩𝒋 ) Marginal Probability for 𝑩𝒋
And
𝑨𝒊 = ∑𝒎𝒋=𝟏 𝑷(𝑨𝒊 ∩ 𝑩𝒋 ) Marginal Probability for 𝑨𝒊

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 19

 Experiment E1
Experiment E Marginal Prob.
𝑨𝟏 𝑨𝟐 … 𝑨𝒏 For 𝑩𝒋
𝑩𝟏 𝑨𝟏 ∩ 𝑩𝟏 𝑨𝟐 ∩ 𝑩𝟏 … 𝑨𝒏 ∩ 𝑩𝟏 𝑷(𝑩𝟏 )
Experiment

𝑩𝟐 𝑨𝟏 ∩ 𝑩𝟐 𝑨𝟐 ∩ 𝑩𝟐 … 𝑨𝒏 ∩ 𝑩𝟐 𝑷(𝑩𝟐 )
… … … … … …
E2

𝑩𝒎 𝑨𝟏 ∩ 𝑩𝒎 𝑨𝟐 ∩ 𝑩𝒎 … 𝑨𝒏 ∩ 𝑩𝒎 𝑷(𝑩𝒎 )
Marginal
𝑷(𝑨𝟏 ) 𝑷(𝑨𝟏 ) … 𝑷(𝑨𝒏 ) 1
Prob. For 𝑨𝒊

𝑷(𝑩𝟏 ) = 𝑷(𝑨𝟏 ∩ 𝑩𝟏 ) + 𝑷(𝑨𝟐 ∩ 𝑩𝟏 ) + ⋯ + 𝑷(𝑨𝒏 ∩ 𝑩𝟏 )

𝑷(𝑩𝟐 ) = 𝑷(𝑨𝟏 ∩ 𝑩𝟐 ) + 𝑷(𝑨𝟐 ∩ 𝑩𝟐 ) + ⋯ + 𝑷(𝑨𝒏 ∩ 𝑩𝟐 )
…
𝑷(𝑩𝒎 ) = 𝑷(𝑨𝟏 ∩ 𝑩𝒎 ) + 𝑷(𝑨𝟐 ∩ 𝑩𝒎 ) + ⋯ + 𝑷(𝑨𝒏 ∩ 𝑩𝒎 )
𝒏

𝑷(𝑩𝒋 ) = ∑ 𝑷(𝑨𝒊 ∩ 𝑩𝒋 )
𝒊=𝟏

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 20

 𝒎

𝑷(𝑨𝒊 ) = ∑ 𝑷(𝑨𝒊 ∩ 𝑩𝒋 )
𝒋=𝟏
𝒊 = 𝟏, 𝟐, … , 𝒏 and 𝒋 = 𝟏, 𝟐, . . , 𝒎
 Conditional Probability: The probability 𝑷(𝑨|𝑩) is called the
conditional probability for two events 𝑨 and 𝑩.
 Given some event B with nonzero probability; 𝑷(𝑩) ≠ 𝟎.
The conditional probability of 𝑨 given 𝑩 is:
𝑷(𝑨∩𝑩)
𝑷(𝑨|𝑩) =
𝑷(𝑩)
 An expression for the Conditional Probability in terms
of joint and marginal probabilities
𝑵𝑨𝑩
𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) 𝑵 𝑵𝑨𝑩
( |
𝑷 𝑩𝑨 = ) = = , 𝑷(𝑨) ≠ 𝟎
𝑷(𝑩) 𝑵𝑨 𝑵𝑨
𝑵
𝑱𝒐𝒊𝒏𝒕 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲
𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 =
𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲
 Since B is known to have occurred, it becomes the new
sample space replacing the original.

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 21

  For mutually exclusive events 𝑨 and 𝑩:
𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 = Ø, 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝑷(𝑨|𝑩) = 𝟎
 Example: The HBO cable network took a survey of 500 subscribers
to determine people’s favorite show, the data are shown in the
following table: (for details click here to see the YouTube video)
Male Female
Game of Thrones 80 120
West World 100 25
Others 50 125
o Compute the total sum for each row and column, we obtain the
following table:
Male Female Total
Game of Thrones 80 120 200
West World 100 25 125
Others 50 125 175
Total 230 270 500
o Each square can be called joint event, because the data written
in the square depended on two different variables.
o Obtain the probability distribution table by dividing each
value by the total number of subscribers “observations”.

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 22

 Male (M) Female (F) Total
Game of Thrones (GoT) 0.16 0.4
West World (WW) 0.2 0.05 0.25
Others (Ot) 0.1 0.25 0.35
Total 0.46 0.54 1
o is the joint probability of the intersection of Female event
(F) and the Game of Thrones (GoT) event and can be written as
𝑷(𝐅 𝐀𝐍𝐃 𝐆𝐨𝐓 ) = 𝑷(𝐅 ∩ 𝐆𝐨𝐓 ) = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟒.
o Joint Probability Distribution is the collectively of the six
probabilities 0.16, 0.2, 0.1, 0.24, 0.05 and 0.25
𝑷(𝑴 ∩ 𝑮𝒐𝑻) + 𝑷(𝑴 ∩ 𝑾𝑾) + 𝑷(𝑴 ∩ 𝑶𝒕) + 𝑷(𝑭 ∩ 𝑮𝒐𝑻) + 𝑷(𝑭 ∩ 𝑾𝑾)
+ 𝑷(𝑭 ∩ 𝑶𝒕) = 𝟏
o Computation of the Marginal Probabilities
Male (M) Female (F) Total
Game of Thrones (GoT) 0.16 0.24
West World (WW) 0.2 0.05 0.25
Others (Ot) 0.1 0.25 0.35
Total 0.46 0.54 1
o is the marginal probability (called like that because it is in
the margin of the table
𝑷(𝑮𝒐𝑻) = 𝟎. 𝟒

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 23

  The marginal probability is the sum of the joint
Probabilities of the given variable.
𝑷(𝑮𝒐𝑻) = 𝑷(𝑴 ∩ 𝑮𝒐𝑻) + 𝑷(𝑭 ∩ 𝑮𝒐𝑻) = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟔 + 𝟎. 𝟐𝟒 = 𝟎. 𝟒
o Marginal Probability Distribution for Game of Thrones, West
World and Others
𝑷(𝑮𝒐𝑻) + 𝑷(𝑾𝑾) + 𝑷(𝑶𝒕) = 𝟏
Male (M) Female (F) Total
Game of Thrones (GoT) 0.16 0.24
West World (WW) 0.2 0.05
Others (Ot) 0.1 0.25
Total 0.46 0.54
o Marginal Probability Distribution for Male, and Female
𝑷(𝑴) + 𝑷(𝑭) = 𝟏
Male (M) Female (F) Total
Game of Thrones (GoT) 0.16 0.24 0.4
West World (WW) 0.2 0.05 0.25
Others (Ot) 0.1 0.25 0.35
Total

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 24

 o Questions:
 Q1: What is the probability of an HBO subscriber being
male?
𝑷(𝑴𝒂𝒍𝒆) = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟔 Marginal Probability of Male Column.
𝒐𝒓
𝑷(𝑴𝒂𝒍𝒆) = 𝑷(𝑴 ∩ 𝑮𝒐𝑻) + 𝑷(𝑴 ∩ 𝑾𝑾) + 𝑷(𝑴 ∩ 𝑶𝒕)
= 𝟎. 𝟏𝟔 + 𝟎. 𝟐 + 𝟎. 𝟏 = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟔
 Q2: What is the probability of an HBO subscriber
preferring West World?
𝑷(𝑾𝑾) = 𝑷(𝑴 ∩ 𝑾𝑾) + 𝑷(𝑭 ∩ 𝑾𝑾) = 𝟎. 𝟐 + 𝟎. 𝟎𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓
 Q3: What is the probability of an HBO subscriber being
male AND preferring West World?
𝑷(𝑴 ∩ 𝑾𝑾) = 𝟎. 𝟐 (Joint Prob.)
 Q4: What is the probability of an HBO subscriber being
male OR preferring West World?
It is the union of probabilities Male and West World
𝑷(𝑴 ∪ 𝑾𝑾) = 𝑷(𝑴) + 𝑷(𝑾𝑾) − 𝑷(𝑴 ∩ 𝑾𝑾)
= 𝟎. 𝟒𝟔 + 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 − 𝟎. 𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟏

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 25

 Remark: 0.2 is subtracted because this value is added
twice in the calculation process.
OR
𝑷(𝑴 ∪ 𝑾𝑾)
= 𝑷(𝑴 ∩ 𝑮𝒐𝑻) + 𝑷(𝑴 ∩ 𝑾𝑾) + 𝑷(𝑴 ∩ 𝑶𝒕)
+ 𝑷(𝑭 ∩ 𝑾𝑾) = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟔 + 𝟎. 𝟐 + 𝟎. 𝟏 + 𝟎. 𝟎𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟏
Male (M) Female (F) Total
Game of Thrones (GoT) 0.24 0.4
West World (WW)
Others (Ot) 0.25 0.35
Total 0.54 1
 Q5: Fatimah just got an HBO subscription. What is the
chance that her favorite show will be Game Of Thrones?
Because Fatimah is Female, we take into consideration only
the Female Column
Female (F)
Game of Thrones (GoT)
West World (WW) 0.05
Others (Ot) 0.25
Total

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 26

 𝑷(𝑮𝒐𝑻∩𝑭) 𝟎.𝟐𝟒
𝑷(𝑮𝒐𝑻|𝑭) = = = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟒𝟒𝟒
𝑷(𝑭) 𝟎.𝟓𝟒
o Conditional Probability Distribution for Male, and Female

Male (M) Female (F) Female (F) Total

Conditional PD
Game of Thrones
0.16 0.24 0.4
(GoT)
West World (WW) 0.2 0.05 0.25
Others (Ot) 0.1 0.25 0.35
Total 0.46 0.54 1

 We can analyze and compare the conditional and

marginal probabilities distributions
 Q5: Given that a subscriber’s favorite show is West
World. What is the probability that they are male.
𝑷(𝑴 ∩ 𝑾𝑾) 𝟎. 𝟐
𝑷(𝑴|𝑾𝑾) = = = 𝟎. 𝟖
𝑷(𝑾𝑾) 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 27

  Example: In a box there are 100 resistors having resistance and
tolerance as shown in Table below. Let a resistor be selected from
the box and assume each resistor has the same likelihood of being
chosen. Define three events:
o A as draw a 47Ω resistor
o B as draw a resistor with 5% tolerance,
o C as draw a 100Ω resistor.
 From the table, the applicable probabilities:

𝑷(𝑨) = 𝑷(𝟒𝟕𝜴) = 𝟒𝟒/𝟏𝟎𝟎

𝑷(𝑩) = 𝑷(𝟓%) = 𝟔𝟐/𝟏𝟎𝟎
𝑷(𝑪) = 𝑷(𝟏𝟎𝟎𝜴) = 𝟑𝟐/𝟏𝟎𝟎

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 28

  The joint probabilities are:
𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝟒𝟕𝜴 ∩ 𝟓%) = 𝟐𝟖/𝟏𝟎𝟎
𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑪) = 𝑷(𝟒𝟕𝜴 ∩ 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝜴) = 𝟎
𝑷(𝑩 ∩ 𝑪) = 𝑷(𝟓% ∩ 𝟏𝟎𝟎 𝜴) = 𝟐𝟒/𝟏𝟎𝟎
 The conditional probabilities are:

 Example: Dice:𝑺 = {𝟏, 𝟐, 𝟑, 𝟒, 𝟓, 𝟔}, 𝑨 = {𝟏, 𝟐, 𝟔}, 𝑩 = {𝟐, 𝟒, 𝟔}

What is the probability (𝑨|𝑩) ?
𝟐 (𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝑨 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝒊𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝑩)
Simple way: 𝑷(𝑨|𝑩) =
𝟑 (𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝑩 𝒂𝒔 𝒏𝒆𝒘 𝒔𝒂𝒎𝒑𝒍𝒆 𝒔𝒑𝒂𝒄𝒆)
𝟐
𝑷(𝑨∩𝑩) 𝟐
Standard way : (𝑨|𝑩) = = 𝟔
𝟑 =
𝑷(𝑩) 𝟑
𝟔
Conditional probability ---easy way :
𝒉𝒐𝒘 𝒎𝒖𝒄𝒉 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒐𝒇 𝑨 𝒊𝒏 𝑩
𝑷(𝑨|𝑩) =
𝒉𝒐𝒘 𝒎𝒖𝒄𝒉 𝑩

Dr. Qadri Hamarsheh Probability & Random Variables 29