Daily Bullion Physical Market Report Date: 6th November 2024

Daily India Spot Market Rates Gold and Silver 999 Watch
Description Purity AM PM Date GOLD* SILVER*
Gold 999 78446 78566
05th November 2024 78566 94261
Gold 995 78132 78251
Gold 916 71857 71967 04th November 2024 78518 94482

Gold 750 58835 58925

02nd November 2024 78425 93501
Gold 585 45891 45961
31st October 2024 79557 96670
Silver 999 93764 94261
Rate as exclusive of GST as of 05th November 2024 Gold is Rs/10 Gm & Silver in Rs/Kg The above rates are IBJA PM Rates; *Rates are exclusive of GST

COMEX Futures Watch ETF Holdings as on Previous Close

Description Contract Close Change %Chg ETFs In Tonnes Net Change

Gold($/oz) DEC 24 2749.70 3.50 0.13 SPDR Gold 888.63 0.00

Silver($/oz) DEC 24 32.78 0.17 0.51 iShares Silver 14,915.16 -34.48

Gold and Silver Fix Bullion Futures DGCX Gold Ratio

Description LTP Description Contract LTP Description LTP
Gold London AM Fix($/oz) 2738.75 Gold($/oz) DEC 24 2751.1
Gold Silver Ratio 83.90
Gold London PM Fix($/oz) 2742.55 Gold Quanto DEC 24 78527

32.65 Silver($/oz) DEC 24 32.66 Gold Crude Ratio 38.20

Silver London Fix($/oz)

Weekly CFTC Positions MCX Indices

Long Short Net Index Close Net Change % Chg
Gold($/oz) 257521 20446 237075
MCX iCOMDEX
19500.38 29.78 0.15 %
Silver 54826 13657 41169 Bullion

Macro-Economic Indicators
Time Country Event Forecast Previous Impact
06th November 07:00 PM United States NO DATA - - Low
Nirmal Bang Securities - Daily Bullion News and Summary
Gold held steady as US Election Day begins, with a Federal Reserve interest rate decision also due later this week. Bullion was near $2,740 an ounce, just shy of
the all-time high set last week. While prices have been relatively stable so far on Tuesday, previous US elections have seen sharp swings. With polls suggesting a
photo-finish result, the risk of a disputed outcome means that the vote count could drag on for days or even weeks. Meanwhile, the Fed and some of its rich-world
peers are expected to lower borrowing costs later this week. Lower rates are often seen as supportive for gold, which doesn’t pay interest. Gold has surged by more
than 30% so far this year, aided by expectations of Fed rate cuts, central-bank buying and haven demand amid conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. Uncertainty
around the tight US presidential race has also supported the yellow metal. The latest data showed the US service sector expanded in October at the fastest pace in
over two years, with the Institute for Supply Management’s employment index climbing to the highest since August 2023. Further job gains, paired with low
unemployment and limited layoffs, painted a more resilient labor market picture than offered by last week’s monthly jobs report.

Exchange-traded funds cut 112,039 troy ounces of gold from their holdings in the last trading session, bringing this year's net sales to 1.73 million ounces,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The sales were equivalent to $306.6 million at yesterday's spot price. Total gold held by ETFs fell 2 percent this year to
83.9 million ounces. Gold advanced 33 percent this year to $2,736.78 an ounce and remained little changed in the latest session. State Street's SPDR Gold Shares, the
biggest precious-metals ETF, maintained its holdings in the last session. The fund's total of 28.6 million ounces has a market value of $78.2 billion. ETFs also cut 1.26
million troy ounces of silver from their holdings in the last trading session, bringing this year's net purchases to 42.8 million ounces.

Zimbabwe’s gold production rose from 3,701.5 kgs in October 2023, Fidelity Gold Refinery said on Tuesday. Output by large scale miners was 1,024.6 kgs down
from 1,058.7 kgs the same month a year earlier. Deliveries by small scale miners rose 3,143.2 kgs compared to 2642.8 kgs produced prior year. Peter Magaramombe,
general manager for Fidelity Gold Refinery told Bloomberg that if current levels of production are maintained in Nov. and Dec, the country will be able to achieve its
annual target of 35 tons. NOTE: October’s production is the highest so far this year. NOTE: Zimbabwe Misses 2023 Gold-Output Target as 30.1 Tons Produced. NOTE:
In January through Oct. this year, the country has produced 28,261.79 kgs, up from 26,167.46 kgs a year earlier.

Diverging fortunes for gold prices and Brent futures signals that markets weight the implications of US elections and the pace of Fed interest-rate cuts more
heavily than an escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Looking at just the fall in Brent futures and the rise in equities in recent months would suggest the world
has been spared major geopolitical risks of late. However, the rally in gold prices reflects the high degree of uncertainty rattling investors: a coin-toss outcome in the
US election and contradictory economic data that make the pace of Fed rate cuts hard to predict. Gold typically serves as a safe haven against uncertain events that
could change the direction of markets, such as geopolitical risk. Historically, conflicts involving major oil producers have also caused crude to rally along with gold on
concern about supply disruptions. Since Iran blamed Israel for an air strike at Iran’s consulate in Syria in April, oil prices have fallen, while gold has risen, as shown by
the chart below. Brent futures near $75 don’t indicate much of a geopolitical risk premium and prices this year are more reflective of weak supply and demand
fundamentals. More delays in production expansion plans by OPEC+, or any other non-war related supply constraints could put oil back at the forefront. A recent
one-month delay of OPEC+ supply expansion already pushed Brent futures up by more than 4% since Friday.

Gold on average does better when a new president wins the election, but only after they are sworn in. When the incumbent wins, the precious metal struggles for
many months after the vote. Gold has rallied strongly in recent months. Demand has mainly been driven by central banks, both EM and DM, upping their ownership
of gold. The World Gold Council estimates that global central banks added 1,037 tonnes in 2023, their second highest annual purchase in history. They now hold over
36,000 tonnes of gold, close to the peak seen just after Nixon closed the Gold Window in 1972. Geopolitical uncertainty is fueling demand as countries seek a hedge
from the dollar system. But the political unknown of a new president is typically also beneficial for gold. Going back to elections from 1972, i.e. after the dollar’s
convertibility to gold was ended, the metal on average sells off after the vote. However, after the inauguration of a new president it rallies over the next six months.
When the incumbent wins, however, the selloff continues after the ceremony in mid-January. With gold overbought, it could face some turbulence in the shorter
term. The historical pattern of it selling off post-election (no matter whether a new president or the incumbent wins), and rebounding thereafter, thus seems a good
indicator this election too.

Fundamental Outlook: Gold and silver prices are trading marginally lower today on the international bourses. We expect gold and silver prices to trade range-bound
to slightly lower for the day; as gold prices are steady as the market braced for a tight US election, and a Federal Reserve rate decision later in the week.

Key Market Levels for the Day

Bullion Month S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

Gold – COMEX December 2695 2720 2745 2755 2775 2800

Silver – COMEX December 32.00 32.20 32.40 32.55 32.70 32.85

Gold – MCX December 77900 78150 78350 78600 78800 79100

Silver – MCX December 92800 93500 94200 94750 95500 96100

Nirmal Bang Securities - Daily Currency Market Update
Dollar Index Market Summary and News
The dollar gauge is sliding ahead of US vote results as polls show a deadlocked presidential
LTP/Close Change % Change race. Euro volatility is headed for the biggest daily rise since 2008. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot
Index slips 0.4%, second day of declines. “There has been some lightening of USD longs to start
103.42 -0.46 -0.44 the week and a weaker USD” as Vice President Kamala Harris has shown some momentum,
said Aroop Chatterjee, a strategist at Wells Fargo. “We think more decisive USD moves are likely
post 8pm ET as we start to get results from key swing states,” he said. “There has been some
Bond Yield unwind of the Trump Trade over the last couple of days and these are probably the final
adjustments ahead of tonight in what is a very thin market right now,” said Lee Ferridge, a
10 YR Bonds LTP Change strategist at State Street. Regarding the Fed, “chances are that with a soft landing in the US, the
policy normalization will remain very gradual in a boost to the relative rate appeal of the USD
United States 4.2708 -0.0140 across the board,” said Valentin Marinov, head of Credit Agricole’s G10 FX strategy in London.
“This much could point at a fairly asymmetric profile for the currency after the election —
Europe 2.4240 0.0310 accentuated gains in the event of a Trump victory and limited losses in the event of a Harris
victory.” EUR/USD rose 0.4% to 1.0925, reaching highest since mid-October, while
Japan 0.9420 -0.0090 overnight volatility heads for its biggest daily increase since the global financial crisis. Citigroup
recommends these trades once the election results are clear: Daniel Tobon, strategist at Citi,
India 6.8310 -0.0010 says buy USD against EUR, SEK, NOK in case of a victory by former President Donald Trump. If
Harris wins, he says sell USD/JPY, and buy AUD/USD. AUD/USD gains the most in the Group of
10, traded up 0.8% at 0.6637, its highest level since Oct. 25. Australia’s central bank held its key
Emerging Market Currency interest rate at a 13-year high as expected, marking a year at that level, and restated that it isn’t
“ruling anything in or out” on policy. “We expect a cut in 2Q next year but further support to the
Currency LTP Change Chinese economy could affect that,” wrote Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at Societe Generale SA.
USD/JPY fell 0.3% to trade at 151.64; Democratic Party for the People leader Yuichiro
Brazil Real 5.7464 -0.0376 Tamaki said Bank of Japan monetary policy should stay on hold a while longer. GBP/USD climbs
0.6% to 1.3035, a third day of gains. The Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 25bps on
South Korea Won 1380.05 4.1000 Thursday. “With the budget set to fuel inflation, we expect the BOE to continue to stress a
gradual approach to monetary policy easing, setting the stage for a December pause,”
wrote Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen, an analyst at Danske Bank. She expects a quarter-point cut this
Russia Rubble 97.7732 -1.0986 week from the BOE. “We expect EUR/GBP to move lower in the coming quarters driven by UK
economic outperformance, BOE lagging peers in an easing cycle for the time being,” she said.
Chinese Yuan 7.1047 0.0038
MSCI’s index for emerging-market currencies ended the day 0.1% lower and developing-world
Vietnam Dong 25341 21.0000 stocks gained as traders girded for results from a coin-toss US election. The Mexican peso, which
investors have highlighted as one of the currencies to be most affected by the US vote outcome,
Mexican Peso 20.1122 0.0067 fluctuated between gains and losses before ending the trading session mostly flat. Earlier, the
currency retreated after the US services sector expanded at its fastest pace in more than two
years, backing bets the US Federal Reserve could pause its cuts in December. Traders are
awaiting the first polls to close at 7pm ET and results to start trickling in from a tight race
NSE Currency Market Watch between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. The dollar extended losses while
Treasury yields fell. The Brazilian real strengthened, bouncing back from earlier losses as Finance
Currency LTP Change Minister Fernando Haddad met with government officials to discuss spending cut measures. The
Israeli shekel ended the session little changed after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fired
NDF 84.23 0.1300 Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. The South African rand, which is considered a proxy for risk
appetite in EM due to its liquidity, strengthened on a strong weekly government bond auction.
USDINR 84.17 -0.0100 The currency extended gains throughout the session, rising 0.7%. Meanwhile in Asia, the South
Korean won lagged as data showing decelerating inflation supported bets on future rate cuts by
JPYINR 55.29 -0.4100 the Bank of Korea. Developing-world equities rose 0.8% led by stocks listed in Hong Kong and
Taiwan.
GBPINR 109.215 0.1475
EURINR 91.745 -0.0625
USDJPY 151.77 0.1600
GBPUSD 1.2988 0.0033
EURUSD 1.0894 -0.0002

Key Market Levels for the Day

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

USDINR SPOT 84.0350 84.0625 83.0975 84.1325 84.1625 84.1975

Nirmal Bang Securities - Bullion Technical Market Update

Gold Market Update

Market View
Open 78211
High 78687
Low 78191
Close 78507
Value Change 85
% Change 0.11
Spread Near-Next 598
Volume (Lots) 4753
Open Interest 12354
Change in OI (%) -6.35%

Gold - Outlook for the Day

BUY GOLD DEC (MCX) AT 78350 SL 78150 TARGET 78600/78800

Silver Market Update

Market View

Open 94103
High 95332
Low 93939
Close 94648
Value Change 364
% Change 0.39
Spread Near-Next 2437
Volume (Lots) 10928
Open Interest 23260
Change in OI (%) -3.99%

Silver - Outlook for the Day

SELL SILVER DEC (MCX) AT 94750 SL 95500 TARGET 94000/93500

Nirmal Bang Securities - Currency Technical Market Update

USDINR Market Update

Market View

Open 84.1900
High 84.1950
Low 84.1675
Close 84.1700
Value Change -0.0100
% Change -0.0119
Spread Near-Next -0.8430
Volume (Lots) 601666
Open Interest 3693077
Change in OI (%) 11.18%

USDINR - Outlook for the Day

The USDINR future witnessed flat opening at 84.19, which was followed by a session where price
shows profit-taking from higher level with candle enclosure near low. A red candle has been
formed by the USDINR price closed around short-term moving averages. Price was consolidating
in narrow range. On the daily chart, the MACD showed a negative crossover above zero-line,
while the momentum indicator, RSI trailing between 50-54 levels indicating negative impact. We
are anticipating that the price of USDINR futures will fluctuate today between 84.12 and 84.21.

Key Market Levels for the Day

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

USDINR NOV 84.0975 84.1150 84.1525 84.2150 84.2575 84.2850

Nirmal Bang Securities – Commodity Research Team

Name Designation Email

Kunal Shah Head of Research [email protected]

Devidas Rajadhikary AVP Commodity Research [email protected]

Harshal Mehta AVP Commodity Research [email protected]

Ravi D’souza Sr. Research Analyst [email protected]

Jayati Mukherjee Sr. Research Analyst [email protected]

Smit Bhayani Research Analyst [email protected]

Utkarsh Dubey Research Associate [email protected]

This Document has been prepared by Nirmal Bang Securities Pvt. Ltd. The
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