5seismic Hazard Assessment

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CE75.07 - Performance Based Seismic Design

CE 75.07 – Performance Based Seismic Design
Lecture 1.6: Seismic Hazard Assessment
Semester – January 2019
Prof. Pennung Warnitchai

Head, Department of Civil and Infrastructure Engineering
School of Engineering and Technology (SET)
Dr. Fawad Ahmed Najam

School of Engineering and Technology (SET)
Earthquake Hazards
• Ground shaking
• Ground displacement along faults: surface rupture
• Ground failures: soil liquefaction, landslide, mud slide, differential soil

settlement, etc.
• Tsunami
• Floods from dam and levee failures
• Fires resulting from earthquakes

AIT Share – CE75.07– Performance Based Seismic Design
3
Ground Shaking Hazard: Wenchuan Earthquake (2008), China
Magnitude = 8.0
Ground Shaking Hazard: Kashmir Earthquake (2005), Balakot, Pakistan
Magnitude = 7.7
Ground Shaking Hazard: Yogyakarta Earthquake (2006), Indonesia
Magnitude = 6.2
BPKP Building (Sewon, Yogyakarta)

Surface Rupture Hazard: The 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan
The 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, Shih-Kang Dam
Soil Liquefaction Hazard
Loss of Bearing Capacity
A building in Dagupan,
Philippines after the
1990 Luzon EQ
Overturned building in
Adpazari, Turkey in the
1999 Kocaeli EQ 9
Damage to Sewers
Sand Boiling Sand Boiling
Flexible Pipe
Manhole
Crack or Residual Strain
Residual Strain
Rigid Pipe Original Soil

(Liquefied)
Lift-up Force
Replaced Soil (Liquefied)
10
Tokachi-oki EQ,
Hokkaido
(2003)
11
Ungerground Pipe Failure in Baguio, Philippines
(Luzon Earthquake, 1990)
Earthquake-induced Landslide in Wenchuan County, China
(Wenchuan Earthquake, 2008)
Dynamic Stability of Embankment
14
Bhuj earthquake 2001 Irrigation Dams
Tsunami generated by an Earthquake
16
Maximum Water Level Khao Lak, Phang-Nga
Fires resulting from the Earthquake
Kobe EQ, 1995
Fires resulting from the Earthquake
Kobe EQ, 1995
19
AIT Share
The 1995 Kobe Earthquake
20
Basic Questions
• Where will future earthquakes occur?
• What will be their size?
• What will be their frequency of occurrence?
• What will be the ground shaking intensity at the site produced by earthquakes of
different size, focal depth, and epicentral location?
• How will the ground motion be influenced by local soil conditions and geology?
• What will be the earthquake hazards (landslide, liquefaction, etc.) produced at the
site?
• How about the susceptibility of buildings and structures to damage from the
ground shaking and ground failures?
21
Seismic Hazard Assessment
SEISMIC HAZARD x SEISMIC VULNERABILITY = SEISMIC RISK
• In principle, Seismic Hazard Assessment (SHA) can address any natural hazard
associated with earthquakes, including ground shaking, fault rupture, landslide,
liquefaction, or tsunami.
• However, most interest is in the estimation of ground-shaking hazard, since it causes

the largest economic losses in most earthquakes.
• Moreover, of all the seismic hazards, ground motion is the predominant cause of
damage from earthquakes; building collapses, dam failures, landslides, and
liquefactions are all the direct result of ground motion.
The Chapter, therefore, is restricted to the estimation of the earthquake ground motion hazard
22
Ground Motion Parameters
• There are many different ground motion parameters—displacement,
velocity, acceleration, or MMI.
• Usually Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) is considered to be the

preferred ground motion parameter.
• Seismic Hazard = Ground-shaking Hazard = the probability of

occurrence of potentially destructive seismic ground shaking at a given
site within a given time interval.
23
Global Seismic Hazard Map
25
Seismic
Hazard Map of
Thailand
This map shows
contours of PGA
(in unit of g ) with
10% probability of
exceedance in a 50-
year exposure
period.
26
Seismic Hazard Assessment
• Seismic Hazard Analysis (SHA) has been widely used by engineers,
regulators, and planners to mitigate earthquake losses:
• Specifying seismic design levels for individual structures and building

codes
• Evaluating the seismic safety of existing facilities
• Planning for societal and economic emergencies (emergency

preparedness)
• Setting priorities for the mitigation of seismic risk
• Insurance analysis
29
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA)
• Probabilities are useful in characterizing seismic hazard since earthquakes

and their effects are random phenomena.
• Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) takes into account the

seismic potential of the seismic sources, the random nature of earthquake
occurrences, the random nature of the ground motion produced by these
earthquakes, the damage potential of these ground motions, and the
uncertainties involved at all levels of the process .
• Prior to the widespread use of PSHA for assessing earthquake hazards,

Deterministic methods (DSHA) dominated such assessments.
30
Probabilistic vs Deterministic
• DSHA considers the effect at a site of either a single scenario earthquake,

or a relatively small number of individual earthquakes.
• Difficulties surrounded the selection of a representative earthquake on

which the hazard assessment would be based.
• PSHA quantifies the hazard at a site from all earthquakes of all possible
magnitudes, at all significant distances from the site of interest, as a
probability by taking into account their frequency of occurrence.
• Deterministic earthquake scenarios, therefore, are a subset of the

probabilistic methodology.
31
PSHA Procedure
• Selection of site(s)
• Identification of all critical tectonic features (e.g. active faults, seismic

source zones) likely to generate significant earthquakes — seismic
sources
• Defining the seismicity of these seismic sources
• Selection of a suitable attenuation relationship — an equation that

estimates ground-motion parameters from earthquake magnitude and
source-to-site distance for various site conditions
• Computation of the ground motion parameters at the site.

32
Earthquake Magnitude = M
Ground Shaking Intensity
Ground Shaking
Intensity
miles
Distance from the Causative Fault

Identification of Seismic Sources
• Where active faults have been identified and mapped, they become the sources of future
earthquakes.
• Where specific faults have not been identified or their characteristics are not well
understood, it is common to define ‘seismic source zone’.
• Within the seismic source zone, earthquakes are typically modeled either as a single point
of energy release (a point source) or as a rupture on a fault (a finite-size source) with a
random location or orientation.
• In such cases, the challenge of the analyst is to identify source zones in which the
seismicity is relatively uniform.
• Even in areas where faults are well defined, a source zone may be needed to model the
random occurrence of small and moderate earthquakes (M < 6.5) — background
seismicity.
35
Earthquakes in
Thailand-
Burma-
Indochina
Region
(1910-2000)
37
TWELVE
REGIONAL
SEISMIC
SOURCE
ZONES AND
RECORDED
EARTHQUAKE
S (1910-2000)
38
Defining the Seismicity of Seismic Sources
• One commonly used parameter for defining the seismicity:
• The rate of occurrence of earthquakes larger than some lower-bound magnitude mo = ν
• mo is defined as the smallest earthquake expected to produce damage.
• Typically mo = 4.0
• In traditional applications of PSHA, n is simply estimated from the historical rate of occurrence
of earthquakes exceeding mo
• The estimate requires historical and instrumental records of earthquakes
• Another relatively new technique — paleoseismic investigation — has been successful in

providing information on prehistoric fault movements and seismicity of active faults.
40
Instrumental
earthquake
data of
Myanmar,
Thailand and
Indonesia
41
Investigation of Active Faults: Fault Trenching in Taiwan
Geological Record found in a Fault Trench in Taiwan
Fault Trenching in Kanchanaburi, Thailand
Magnitude-Recurrence Relationship
• The most commonly used equation (model) to describe the occurrence of earthquakes
is the well-known Gutenberg-Richter relationship:
Log10 N(m) = a - b.m (1)

• Where
• N(m) is the average number per year of earthquakes having magnitudes greater than m.
• a and b are constants; they are conventionally obtained from an appropriate statistical analysis
of historical earthquakes.
• 10a is the average number per year of earthquakes above magnitude zero.
• b describes the relative rate of occurrence of different magnitudes.
• b is typically 1.0 + 0.3.
The form of this relationship has been verified from observations of seismicity throughout the world.
46
m N(m)
8.0 2
7.0 20
6.0 100
5.0 3,000
4.0 15,000
The Gutenberg-Richter
(exponential) model
10
N(M) : Frequency of Occurrence (number/year)

zone A
zone B
zone C
1 zone D
zone E
zone F
zone G
Magnitude- zone H
zone I
Recurrence 0.1 zone J

zone K
Relationship
0.01
0.001
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Magnitude (M) 48
Fault Sources
For some faults, the
occurrence rate of large
earthquakes deviates
from that predicted by
equation (1).
For these faults, a

characteristic earthquake
model is thought to
represent more
accurately the seismicity
of the fault.
49
Attenuation Relationships
• The ground motion attenuation relationships provide the means of estimating a
strong-ground-motion parameter of interest from parameters of the earthquake, such
as magnitude, source-to-site distance, fault mechanism, local site conditions, etc.
• A wide variety of empirical ground motion attenuation relationships is available for

application in PSHA.
• The choice of an appropriate relationship is governed by the regional tectonic setting

of site of interest, whether it is located within a stable continental region, or an
active tectonic region, or whether the site is in proximity to a subduction zone
tectonic environment.
52
Tectonic Regions
Active Tectonic Regions
Subduction Regions
Stable Continental Regions

• Ground motion attenuation is often represented by the form:
Log10Y = c1 + c2.M + c3.Log10 R + c4.R + c5.F + c6.S + e (2)
Where
Y is the ground motion parameter of interest (i.e. PGA, PGV, SA, SD)
M is earthquake magnitude
R is source-to-site distance
F is the faulting mechanism of the earthquake
S is a description of the local site conditions
e Is a random error term with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of s (a
Gaussian probability distribution); this term describes the variability in ground motion.
56
Random
Error of
Attenuation
Model
58
Source-to-Site Distance

Faulting Mechanism

Local Site Conditions

Log10Y = c1 + c2.M + c3.Log10 R + c4.R + c5.F + c6.S + e (2)
• Coefficients c1, c2, c3, c4, c5, and c6 are normally determined by fitting the
equation to actual ground motion data (applying statistical regression
analyses).
• The term c3.Log10 R represents the geometric attenuation of the seismic

wave front as it propagates away from the earthquake source.
• The term c4.R represents the an elastic attenuation that results from the
material damping and scattering as the seismic waves propagate through
the crust.
62
Ground motion database used for developing an attenuation relationship

Coefficients of an attenuation relationship

ATTENUATION RELATIONSHIPS
1
PGA (g) Focal depth = 25 km.
Mw = 7.2
0.1
10
0.01
1
Mw = 8.0
0.001
0.1
0.0001
WNA models
0.01
EU models
CENA models
0.001
0.0001
AIT Share – CE75.07– Performance Based Seismic Design 1 10 100 1000
Rupture Distance (km)
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
• The analytical approach of PSHA was first developed by C.A. Cornell in 1968.
• It was used by S.T. Algermissen et.al. (USGS) for developing a probabilistic

seismic hazard map of US in 1976.
• The map was later on used as a basis for developing the US seismic zone map
in the Uniform Building Code (US) in 1988.
• The analysis procedure is currently widely accepted and used all over the world.
66
GLOBAL SEISMICHAZARD ASSESSMENT
PROGRAM
http://seismo.ethz.ch/gshap/

Key Assumptions in Calculating Probabilistic Ground Motions
1. Earthquakes occur within the defined seismic source zones or along the defined active faults.
2. Within each defined seismic source zone (or active fault), earthquakes occur randomly at any
location with an equal chance (probability).
3. Within each defined seismic source zone (or active fault), earthquakes randomly occur in time, in
which the average rate of occurrence is defined by its magnitude-recurrence relation.
This random occurrence in time is modeled as a Poisson process.
4. The occurrence of an earthquake is statistically independent of the occurrence of other

earthquakes.
5. In any earthquake event, the ground motion parameter (e.g. PGA, SA) at the site of interest can be
estimated from the earthquake magnitude, source-to-site distance, and other earthquake parameters
by using the selected attenuation relationship.
70
Simplified PSHA
• To demonstrate on how probabilistic ground motion is estimated, a simplified

calculation of probabilistic ground motion is presented as follows:
• Let’s consider a simple case where only one seismic source (A) is located near
the site of interest (P).
Site
Seismic Source
• The source-to-site distance = RAP = 30 km.

71
Simplified PSHA
P
• Let’s set the PGA level of interest at Site
the site to, say, 0.10 g. Seismic Source
• According to the selected attenuation

relationship, earthquakes with
magnitude greater than 6.6 will
produce PGA at the site equal to or
greater than 0.10 g.
72
Simplified PSHA
• According to the magnitude-recurrence
relationship of the source zone A, the annual
occurrence rate of earthquakes with M > 6.6 =
N(M=6.6) = 0.007 event per year
• Hence, the annual occurrence rate of having

PGA at the site exceeding 0.10 g
= 0.007 (event per year)
= annual exceedance rate.
• In the other words, the return period for PGA >

0.10 g = 1/0.007 = 143 years.
73
Random Occurrence of Earthquakes in Time:
Poisson Process
Annual exceedance rate = total number of events/time period = 0.007
Return Period = time period/total number of events = 143 yr
= Earthquake Event with PGA > 0.10 g at the site

Given a time period of 10 years,
• Annual exceedance rate = total number of events/time period = 0.007
the chance of having such event in this time period
= 0.007 x 10 = 0.07 = 7 %, or
= 10/143 = 0.07 = 7 %
74
Simplified PSHA
• Repeat the calculation process for many other PGA
levels (0.01g, 0.05g, 0.20g, etc.).
• Draw the relationship between PGA and the
corresponding annual exceedance rate.
• Then, determine the PGA level with annual exceedance
rate of 0.002.
• This PGA level is equal to, say, 0.22 g.
• The exceedance rate in one year = 0.002.
• The exceedance rate in a 50-yr period = 0.002x50 =
0.10.
• The chance of exceeding PGA of 0.22g in a 50-yr period
= 10%.
• Hence, the PGA level with 10% chance of being
exceeded in a 50-yr period is 0.22g. 75
Multiple Sources B
P
Site
Seismic Source
• Annual exceedance rate at the site P =

• Annual exceedance rate caused by EQs in source A +
• Annual exceedance rate caused by EQs in source B +
• Annual exceedance rate caused by EQs in source C C
76
PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC
HAZARD ANALYSIS
77
Seismic Hazard
Map of Thailand
This map shows

contours of PGA
(in unit of g ) with
10% probability of
exceedance in a
50-year exposure
period.
78
Use of Probabilistic Ground Motions in Earthquake-resistant
Design of Buildings
The expected performance of buildings in modern earthquake-resistant design codes are:
1. Resist a minor level of earthquake ground shaking (SE) without damage
SE = Serviceability earthquake—50% probability of exceedance in 30 years (43-year return period)
2. Resist the design level of earthquake ground shaking (DBE) with damage (which may or may not
be economically repaired) but without causing extensive loss of life.
DBE = Design basis earthquake—10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (472-year return

period)
3. Resist the strongest earthquake shaking expected at the site (MCE) without collapse, but
potentially with extreme damage.
MCE = Maximum considered earthquake—2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (2475-year

return period)
79
Seismic Design Criteria of Major Dam Projects
• According to ICOLD (International Commission of Large Dams) Bulletin 72 (1989),

large dams have to be able to withstand the effects of the Maximum Credible
Earthquake Shaking Level (MCE).
• This MCE is the strongest earthquake shaking level that could occur in the region
of a dam, and is considered to have a return period of several thousand years
(typically 10,000 years in regions of low to moderate seismicity).
• MCE = Maximum considered earthquake—0.5% probability of exceedance in

50 years (about 10,000-year return period)
80
Probabilistic Ground Motion Parameters: PGA, PGV, SA
• Traditionally Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) has been used to quantify ground motion in
PSHA. PGA is a good index to hazard for low-rise buildings, up to about 7 stories.
• PGV, peak ground velocity, is a good index to hazard to taller buildings. However, it is not clear
how to relate velocity to force in order to design a taller building.
• Today the preferred parameter is Response Spectral Acceleration (SA).
• While PGA (peak acceleration) is what is experienced by a particle on the ground, SA is

approximately what is experienced by a building, as modeled by a particle mass on a massless
vertical rod having the same natural period of vibration as the building
SA = The maximum acceleration experienced by a damped, single-degree-of-freedom oscillator (a

crude representation of building response).
Max. Earthquake Force in the Building = Building Mass x SA

81
Response Spectrum Parameters: SA, SD, SV
82
Shake Table
Experiment

If we look at the displacement response, we can identify the
maximum displacement. If we take the derivative (rate of change)
of the displacement response with respect to time, we can get the
velocity response. The maximum velocity can likewise be
determined. Similarly for response acceleration (rate of change of
velocity) also called response spectral acceleration (SA).
SD
SV
SA
T, sec
Attenuation Model for SA
85
Coefficients of an attenuation relationship
86
Spectral Acceleration at 0.2 sec with 2 % Probability of Spectral Acceleration at 1.0 sec with 2 % Probability of
Exceedance in 50 years (Ss) Exceedance in 50 years (S1)
Deaggregation of Hazard
• The hazard curve gives the combined effect of all the seismic sources,
magnitudes and distances on the probability of exceeding a given ground
motion level.
• Since all of the sources, magnitudes, and distances are mixed together, it
is difficult to get an intuitive understanding of what is controlling the hazard
from the hazard curve by itself.
• To provide insight into what events are the most important for the hazard at
a given ground motion level, the hazard curve is broken down into its
contributions from different earthquake scenarios.
• This process is called ‘Deaggregation of Hazard’.

90
Example of Contributions of Various Seismic Sources to the
Total Seismic Hazard at the Site
91
Example of Contributions of Two Seismic Sources to the
Total Seismic Hazard at the Site
92
Thank you

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AIT Share

CE75.07 - Performance Based Seismic Design

Prof. Pennung Warnitchai

Dr. Fawad Ahmed Najam

• Ground displacement along faults: surface rupture

• Ground failures: soil liquefaction, landslide, mud slide, differential soil

• Floods from dam and levee failures

• Fires resulting from earthquakes

BPKP Building (Sewon, Yogyakarta)

Rigid Pipe Original Soil

• What will be their size?

• What will be their frequency of occurrence?

• However, most interest is in the estimation of ground-shaking hazard, since it causes

• Usually Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) is considered to be the

• Seismic Hazard = Ground-shaking Hazard = the probability of

• Specifying seismic design levels for individual structures and building

• Evaluating the seismic safety of existing facilities

• Planning for societal and economic emergencies (emergency

• Setting priorities for the mitigation of seismic risk

• Probabilities are useful in characterizing seismic hazard since earthquakes

• Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) takes into account the

• Prior to the widespread use of PSHA for assessing earthquake hazards,

• DSHA considers the effect at a site of either a single scenario earthquake,

• Difficulties surrounded the selection of a representative earthquake on

• Deterministic earthquake scenarios, therefore, are a subset of the

• Identification of all critical tectonic features (e.g. active faults, seismic

• Defining the seismicity of these seismic sources

• Selection of a suitable attenuation relationship — an equation that

• Computation of the ground motion parameters at the site.

Ground Shaking Intensity

Distance from the Causative Fault

• The rate of occurrence of earthquakes larger than some lower-bound magnitude mo = ν

• mo is defined as the smallest earthquake expected to produce damage.

• The estimate requires historical and instrumental records of earthquakes

• Another relatively new technique — paleoseismic investigation — has been successful in

Log10 N(m) = a - b.m (1)

N(M) : Frequency of Occurrence (number/year)

Recurrence 0.1 zone J

For these faults, a

• A wide variety of empirical ground motion attenuation relationships is available for

• The choice of an appropriate relationship is governed by the regional tectonic setting

Stable Continental Regions

Log10Y = c1 + c2.M + c3.Log10 R + c4.R + c5.F + c6.S + e (2)

AIT Share – CE75.07– Performance Based Seismic Design

AIT Share – CE75.07– Performance Based Seismic Design

AIT Share – CE75.07– Performance Based Seismic Design

• The term c3.Log10 R represents the geometric attenuation of the seismic

AIT Share – CE75.07– Performance Based Seismic Design

AIT Share – CE75.07– Performance Based Seismic Design

• It was used by S.T. Algermissen et.al. (USGS) for developing a probabilistic

AIT Share – CE75.07– Performance Based Seismic Design

This random occurrence in time is modeled as a Poisson process.

4. The occurrence of an earthquake is statistically independent of the occurrence of other

• To demonstrate on how probabilistic ground motion is estimated, a simplified

• The source-to-site distance = RAP = 30 km.

• Let’s set the PGA level of interest at Site

the site to, say, 0.10 g. Seismic Source

• According to the selected attenuation

• Hence, the annual occurrence rate of having