TEEE 4207 POWER SYSTEM DESIGN

Lecture 2b: Load Forecasting

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 What is forecasting?

What is forecasting?
• Predicting the Future
• Qualitative forecast methods
– Subjective
• Quantitative forecast methods
• – based on mathematical formulas
What is demand forecasting?

Forecasting is a tool used for predicting

future demand based on
past demand information.
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Predict the next number in the pattern:

a) 3.7, 3.7, 3.7, 3.7, 3.7, ?

b) 2.5, 4.5, 6.5, 8.5, 10.5, ?
c) 5.0, 7.5, 6.0, 4.5, 7.0, 9.5, 8.0, 6.5, ?

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Key issues in forecasting
• A forecast is only as good as the information included in the forecast
(past data)
• History is not a perfect predictor of the future (i.e.: there is no such
thing as a perfect forecast)
• Every forecast should include an estimate of error
• The longer the forecast horizon the worst is the forecast
• Sophisticated forecasting techniques do not mean better forecasts
• Avoid single number forecasting, Single number substitutes for the
decision

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Introduction
• The electrical load increases about 3-7% per year for
many years. This necessitate load forecasting.
• The utilities use three types of load forecasting:
– Long term (e.g. 20 years)
– Medium term. (e.g. 3-8 weeks)
– Short term (e.g. one week)

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What to forecast
Three variables have to be forecasted for proper
planning, they
are:
1. Peak Demand (MW).
2. Energy Consumption (MWH)
3. Shape of Load Duration Curve (LDC)

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Peak Demand (MW)
For the purpose of determining:
• The required capacity in generation.
• Size of Units
✓capital cost investment
✓reliability calculations

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Energy Consumption (MWH)
For the purpose of determining:
• Fuel cost
• Operation and maintenance (O&M) costs
• Company’s revenue

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Shape of LDC
For the purpose of determining:
• Probabilistic reliability calculations (LOLP, LOLE, EENS)
• The optimum mix of different types of generating
units and fuel type
• Tariff structure

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How To Develop a Forecast
1. Set down basic facts about past trends and forecasts.
2. Determine causes of changes in past demand trends.
3. Determine causes of differences between previous
forecasts and actual behaviour.
4. Determine factors likely to affect future demand.
5. Make the forecast for some future period and provide the
user with measure of its accuracy and reliability.
6. Revise forecasts when necessary.

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Forecasting Process

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Forecasting Horizon
• Long term forecasting (2-25 years)
• Medium term forecasting (1-2 years) – operational planning
• Short term forecasting ( weeks) - operational planning
• Very short term forecasting (mins – hours) – op. control

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Long Term Forecasting
Long term forecasting is used for :
• Exploration of fuel / other resources
• Development of manpower
• Reinforcement of G, T, D
• Determining future expansion / fuel requirement

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Long Term Forecast
• The building of a power plant requires:
– 10 years (Nuclear)
– 6 years (Large coal-fired)
– 3 years (combustion turbine)
• The electric system planning needs the forecast of the
load for several years.
• Typically the long term forecast covers a period of 20
years

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Influences on Long Term Forecasting
• Economic policies
• Developmental plans
• Technological developments
• Growth pattern in commercial, industrial, agricultural load etc
• Population growth
• Electrification plan
• Political
• Environmental

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Medium Term Forecasts
Medium Term forecasting is used for :
• Deciding tariff structure
• Power exchange contracts
• Budgeting and planning fuel / operational requirements
• Maintenance scheduling of G & T
• Scheduling of peak plants

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Medium Term Forecast..
• The planning of maintenance, scheduling of the
fuel supply etc. calls for medium term load
forecast .
• The medium term load forecast covers a period
of a few weeks.
• It provides the peak load and the daily energy
requirement
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Short Term Forecasts
Short Term forecasting is used for :
• Unit commitment
• Economic dispatch
• Maintenance scheduling updates
• Online load flows
• Spinning reserve calculations
• System security analysis
• Load management
• Fuel stocking
• Short term interchange schedules

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Short Term Forecast
• The number of generators in operation, the start up of a new
unit depends on the load.
• The day to day operation of the system requires accurate short
term load forecasting.
• The short term load forecasting provides load data for the day
and covers a period of one week.
• The load data are:
– hourly or half-hourly peak load in kW
– hourly or half-hourly values of system energy in kWh
– Daily and weekly system energy in kWh

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Short Term Forecast
• The short term load forecasting is performed daily or weekly.
• The forecasted data are continuously updated.
• Typical short-term, daily load forecast is presented in the Table below.
(Salt River Project, SRP)

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Importance of Short-term Load Forecasting
• Provide load data to the dispatchers for economic and reliable operation of the local power
system.
• The timeliness and accuracy of the data affects the cost of operation.
– Example: The increase of accuracy of the forecast by 1% reduced the operating cost by L 10M
in the British Power system in 1985
• The forecasted data are used for:
– Unit commitment.
• selection of generators in operation,
• start up/shut down of generation to minimize operation cost
– Hydro scheduling to optimize water release from reservoirs
– Hydro-thermal coordination to determine the least cost operation mode
(optimum mix)
– Interchange scheduling and energy purchase.
– Transmission line loading
– Power system security assessment.
• Load-flow
• transient stability studies 21
Data and System Parameters for Load Forecasting
• The factors affecting the load are:
– economical or environmental
– time
– weather
– Unforeseeable random events
Economical or environmental factors
– Service area demographics (rural, residential)
– Industrial growth
– Emergence of new industry, change of farming
– Penetration or saturation of appliance usage
– Economical trends (recession or expansion)
– Change of the price of electricity
– Demand side load management
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Data and System Parameters for Load Forecasting
Time Factors affecting the load
• Seasonal variation of load (summer, winter etc.). The
load change is due to:
• Change of number of daylight hours
• Gradual change of average temperature
• Start of school year, vacation

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Example: Typical Seasonal Variation of Load

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Typical Seasonal Variation of Load Summer peaking utility
Data and System Parameters for Load Forecasting
Time Factors affecting the load
Weekly Cyclic Variation
– Saturday and Sunday significant load reduction
– Monday and Friday slight load reduction
– Typical weekly load pattern:

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Data and System Parameters for Load Forecasting
Time Factors affecting the load
• Daily variation of load. ( night, morning, etc)

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Data and System Parameters for Load Forecasting
Time Factors affecting the load
• Holidays (Holidays. Major events)
– Significant reduction of load
– Days proceeding or following the holidays also have a
reduced load.

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Data and System Parameters for Load Forecasting
Weather factors affecting the load
• The weather affects the load because of weather sensitive loads:
– air-conditioning
– house heating
– Irrigation
The most important parameters are:
– Humidity
– Thunderstorms
– Wind speed
– Rain, fog, snow
– Cloud cover or sunshine

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Data and System Parameters for Load Forecasting
Random Disturbances Effects on Load
• Start or stop of large loads (steel mill, factory, furnace)
• Widespread strikes
• Sporting events (football games)
• Popular television shows
• Shut-down of industrial facility

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Data and System Parameters for Load Forecasting
• The different load forecasting techniques use different sets of data listed
before.
• Two -three years of data is required for the validation and development of
a new forecasting program.
• The practical use of a forecasting program requires a moving time window
of data
• The forecasting is a continuous process.
• The utility forecasts the load of its service area.
• The forecaster
– prepares a new forecast for everyday and
– updates the existing forecast daily
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Forecasting Energy or Demand?
Using demand forecast directly or forecasting energy then obtains
demand from it is situation dependent:
• Forecasting energy is easier because it varies less erratically.
Then by forecasting load factor and time, the demand can be
obtained.
➢Energy is considered a better indicator of trend growth.
➢Energy is readily related to demographic and economic factors.
• Direct demand forecasting has the advantage of being more
direct and can be related directly to weather variables and other
parameters

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Load Forecast Uncertainty
Factors contributing to uncertainty
• Source data quality (population, economic, energy)
• Validity of assumptions
• Political factors, both internal and external
• Local energy policy
• Economic factors
• Electricity prices / pricing structure / regulation
• Consumer behaviour
• Emergence of new technologies
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Forecasting Methods
Forecasting Modelling Depends on
1. Degree of Accuracy Required
2. Cost of Producing Forecasts
3. Forecast Horizon
4. Degree of Complexity Required
5. Available Data
Classification of Estimation Methods
1. Time Series Methods
2. Causal Methods
3. Qualitative (Judgmental Methods)

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Forecasting Methods..
• Qualitative
– use management judgment, expertise, and opinion to predict future
demand
• Time series
– statistical techniques that use historical demand data to predict
future demand
• Regression methods
– attempt to develop a mathematical relationship between demand
and factors that cause its behavior

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Forecasting Methods…

Time Series Methods: Causal Methods:

1. Autoregressive Moving Average 1. Regression Analysis
(ARMA) 2. Linear Regression
2. Exponential Smoothing 3. Non-Linear Regression
3. Extrapolation 4. Econometrics
4. Linear Prediction
5. Trend Estimation
6. Growth Curve
7. Box-Jenkins Approach

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Choice of forecasting technique
• Choosing forecasting technique is not a trivial task.
• It depends on nature of load variations.
• Before choosing a particular method, a basic understanding of how a
load behaves is essential.
• If on the basis of historical data and good judgment, simple
extrapolation appears to be sufficient, it should be used.
• Choosing the best technique requires good judgment and knowledge
of advantages and disadvantages of various available methods.
• Once a method is chosen its effectiveness must always be re-
evaluated.
• Forecasting techniques can outlive their usefulness as a result of
drastic changes in system data for available methods improvements.
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Time Series
• Assume that what has occurred in the past will continue to occur in
the future
• Relate the forecast to only one factor - time
• Include
– moving average
– exponential smoothing
– linear trend line

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Moving Average
• Naive forecast
– Demand in the current period is used as next period’s
forecast
• Simple moving average
– stable demand with no pronounced behavioral patterns
• Weighted moving average
– weights are assigned to most recent data

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Naïve Approach

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Simple Moving Average

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3-month Simple Moving Average

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5-month Simple Moving Average

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END OF SESSION

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