RESEARCH ARTICLE | MARCH 12 2024

Transforming the transportation sector: Mitigating

greenhouse gas emissions through electric vehicles (EVs)
and exploring sustainable pathways
Rohan Kumar; Ammara Kanwal; Muhammad Asim ; Mohsin Pervez ; M. A. Mujtaba  ;
Yasser Fouad ; M. A. Kalam

AIP Advances 14, 035320 (2024)

https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0193506

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Transforming the transportation sector:

Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions through
electric vehicles (EVs) and exploring sustainable
pathways
Cite as: AIP Advances 14, 035320 (2024); doi: 10.1063/5.0193506
Submitted: 22 December 2023 • Accepted: 12 February 2024 •
Published Online: 12 March 2024

Rohan Kumar,1 Ammara Kanwal,2 Muhammad Asim,2 Mohsin Pervez,2 M. A. Mujtaba,3,a)

Yasser Fouad,4 and M. A. Kalam5

AFFILIATIONS
1
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, 75105 Uppsala, Sweden
2
Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore 54000, Pakistan
3
Department of Mechanical Engineering, UET Lahore (New Campus), Lahore 54890, Pakistan
4
Department of Applied Mechanical Engineering, College of Applied Engineering, Muzahimiyah Branch, King Saud University,
P.O. Box 800, Riyadh 11421, Saudi Arabia

24 October 2024 08:19:27

5
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, FEIT, University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo, New South Wales 2007, Australia

a)
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed: [email protected]

ABSTRACT
Transportation-related emissions in Pakistan have been rapidly increasing in recent years. This study aims to determine how important it
is to electrify road transportation in Pakistan to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector. Motivated by the
need to tackle the growing environmental issues related to conventional fuel-powered automobiles, this research explores the application
of electrification techniques in the context of Pakistan’s transportation system. During the 2019 fiscal year, the transportation industry in
Pakistan consumed 23 × 106 tonnes of energy from the burning of fossil fuels and produced 52.9 × 106 metric tons of CO2 , which made
up 31% of the country’s total carbon emissions. In this research, different scenarios, such as business as usual, low carbon, strengthen low
carbon, and Pakistan National Electric Vehicle Policy 2040, are evaluated for the transportation sector of the country. Using the LEAP model,
this study projects the effects of electrification on Pakistan road transportation over 30 years. When estimating how electrification will affect
road transportation in Pakistan over the next 30 years, several factors were taken into account, including policy frameworks, changing con-
sumer behavior, technology advancements, and infrastructure improvements. The analysis covered the emission levels, adoption hurdles, and
possible advantages of transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs). The outcomes illustrate that adopting EVs can produce substantial drops in
fuel consumption and environmental emissions, providing a sustainable solution to mitigate global warming. This work is directly associated
with various Sustainable Development Goals, including SDG3 (good health and well-being), SDG7 (affordable and clean energy), and SDG13
(climate action). The results of this study highlight the considerable potential for GHG reduction associated with the widespread adoption of
EVs, offering crucial insights to stakeholders and policymakers.
© 2024 Author(s). All article content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0193506

I. INTRODUCTION the transportation industry.2 The transportation industry connects

several sectors, which is crucial for the growth of developing
A public challenge that is presently being confronted globally countries’ economies. Despite its constructive part, transportation
including many developing countries is climate change.1 Approxi- sector produces a major share of carbon emissions around the
mately 25%–30% of worldwide carbon emissions are attributed to globe. The transportation industry, among the major sectors where

AIP Advances 14, 035320 (2024); doi: 10.1063/5.0193506 14, 035320-1

© Author(s) 2024
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greenhouse gas emissions are still rising, contributes nearly a contributions to climate change offer increasing environmental
quarter of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions around the globe. The hazards, which must be mitigated immediately.8
transportation industry’s greenhouse gas emissions are a serious Pakistan faces unique obstacles concerning emissions and
environmental issue that has a substantial impact on climate change transportation that are influenced by a combination of infrastruc-
worldwide.3 About half of all transport sector-associated greenhouse tural, economic, and demographic issues. The demand for trans-
gas (GHG) comes from road transport, which is by far the prime portation, which is mostly dependent on fossil fuels, has increased
emitter.4 The International Energy Agency (IEA) 2018 report claims due to rapid urbanization, population growth, migration toward
that 26% of world GHG emissions comes from transportation, which cities, and the emergence of a middle class.10 Higher emissions are
is 70% greater than that of GHG emissions in 1990.4,5 a result of the nation’s transportation sector’s heavy reliance on
The worldwide transportation sector is dependent on fossil outdated and inefficient cars. Furthermore, the lack of adequate
fuels, of which oil has 92% of the total share. The transportation public transportation infrastructure in large cities increases the cost
sector contributes significantly to climate change by using fossil of owning a personal automobile, which aggravates the environ-
fuels, such as gasoline and diesel, which produce large amounts of mental effect.11 The adoption of cleaner technology is impeded by
carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide into the environment. Pakistan’s economic limitations, which make it more difficult to
The usage of fossil fuels can cause obvious complications, such as shift to more sustainable modes of transportation. Furthermore,
bad air quality due to smog and acid rain, which harms aquatic life, the transportation industry both contributes to and is a victim of
birds, and trees badly.6 In both developed and developing countries, environmental degradation, making the nation susceptible to the
environmental pollution due to exposure to fossil fuel burning is effects of climate change.12
a main environmental problem disturbing human health. Burning In Pakistan, the percentage of carbon emissions is growing day
of fossil fuels emits pollution and creates climate change that leads by day just because the number of vehicles on the roads increases
to human health, early death, asthmatic diseases, heart attacks, res- vastly every year, and 31% of total carbon emissions are attributed
piratory disorders, and autism spectrum disorder. Although there to transportation sector.13 With the current situation and grow-
are other ambient air contaminants, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) ing energy demand in the country, GHG emissions perhaps cross
is the marker that has been studied the most and has independent 281.8 MMT by 2035.14 In Pakistan, vehicle registration is growing at
impacts. According to the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) a rate of 15.1% and more than 23.54 × 106 vehicles were registered
study, long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 caused 103.19 × 106 in 2018, which is 200% more than in 2011.15 The number of vehicles
disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and 4.21 × 106 deaths globally made by local manufacturing companies is growing every year, and

24 October 2024 08:19:27

in 2015, which is the fifth-ranking mortality risk factor, presenting in 2018, 2 079 774 motor cars were produced locally and imported
6.91% of overall world deaths and 3.90% of worldwide DALYs.7 internationally.16 The high sulfur content emitted by vehicles in
Table I represents the summary of transport fuel pollutants, GWP Pakistan is the major contest within the transportation industry of
of pollutants, and their adverse impacts on human health. Effective the country’s economy. In Pakistan, most fuels hold a sulfur content
mitigation techniques are desperately needed, as the environmental of 4000–10 010 parts per million, which is a particularly major
consequences affect not only the climate directly but also human cause of carbon emissions. The emission standard range of 4000–10
health, biodiversity, and air quality. The transportation sector’s 010 parts per million for Euro III and Euro IV vehicles is

TABLE I. Summary of fuel pollutants, GWP of pollutants, and their detrimental effects on human health and life.9 Data sourced from Ministry of Climate Change, government
of Pakistan. INDC. 2018. Available online: http://www.lead.org.pk/pakindc/aboutindc.html (accessed on 7 April 2022). “Adapted from Ministry of Climate Change, government of
Pakistan. INDC. 2018. Reproduced under the terms of fair use for educational and research purposes.”

Fuel type Pollutants Adverse effects on human health GWP (20-years)

Gasoline Carbon dioxide (CO2 ) Headaches, dizziness, restlessness, heart dysfunction, decline in 1
cognitive function, calcification of the kidneys, and demineral-
ization of the bones
Diesel Carbon monoxide (CO) Hypoxia, issues with the heart and blood vessels, poor learning 6
capacity, and fatigue
CNG Nitrogen oxides (NOx) Lung diseases, damaged lung and liver tissues, and respiratory 43
diseases
Biodiesel Hydrocarbons (HCs) Cancer and harming of the central nerve and respiratory systems 3–9
Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) Cancer and irritation of the mucous membranes in the mouth, 14
Ethanol
nose, and throat
Particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10) Permanent deterioration of respiratory function, heart diseases,
and lung infection

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significantly higher.17 Many developing countries around the globe financial limitations, even though some developing countries are
have already adopted these emission standards to limit their making progress toward adopting electric vehicles. Research indi-
carbon emission. Still, the implementation procedure is sluggish cates that to support the shift to electric vehicles in developing
due to unknown causes in Pakistan, which caused excessive countries, certain legislation, financial incentives, and international
carbon emissions. Due to a lack of management and lack of policy cooperation are essential.28–30
implementation, Pakistan is now among the top ten countries in While many developing nations throughout the world are
terms of excessive carbon emissions coming from the transportation improving internal combustion engines, introducing advanced
sector.18–23 automobile (hybrid) models, and using better fuels, electric vehicles
To reduce reliance on fossil fuels, Pakistan needs to revise its remain a vital answer for environmentally friendly and sustainable
future environment and energy policies. Pakistan is majorly depen- transportation. The adoption of electric vehicles can ensure the
dent on imported fossil fuels, which will cause climate change and minimization of overall carbon impacts on the environment and
global warming, and it is high time to address this very important decrease the major dependence on petroleum fuels. In the past
socioeconomic issue. To tackle these obstacles, a diverse strategy few years, the importance of electric vehicles (EVs) has been ris-
is needed, including policy changes, funding for eco-friendly ing quickly.31 In 2018, worldwide, electric vehicles (EVs) fleet grew
transportation options, and international collaboration to promote by five million with an intensification of 64% from the last year.32
technological advancements.24 This will eventually lead Pakistan’s Compared to other world, China has significant transformation
transportation sector to become more resilient and environmen- obsessed by the mass saturation of electric vehicles.33 In 2019, China
tally safe. Road transport is the major contributor to environmental dominated the worldwide electric vehicle fleet, comprising 46% of
emissions due to the usage of oil-based products; each year tons the total, followed by Europe with 25% and the US with 21%.34
of oil is imported into Pakistan with significant obligation fees, as Figure 2 depicts the trend of worldwide electric vehicle growth,
indicated in Fig. 1. A total of 66% of petroleum products, both illustrating the shift towards electrification in developing nations.
imported and produced locally, was consumed by the transport Norway ranks among the top countries in the world for EV mar-
sector of Pakistan. The transport sector of Pakistan contained 51% ket share, with 38% of new cars sold there being EVs.35 In terms
high-speed diesel, 39% motor spirit oil, 8.9% CNG, 1.1% high octane, of EV market share, Iceland was the second largest country glob-
and 0.2% light fuel during the fiscal year 2018.14 All around the ally with 18% of the EV market share and Sweden ranked the third
globe, specifically in developing countries, investments have been with 9% share.36,37 In 2018, more than 2 × 106 electric vehicles were
made to support green energy pledged fiscal stimulus plans, amount- sold, so the worldwide electric vehicles fleet is escalating quickly,

24 October 2024 08:19:27

ing to about $181 to $196 × 109 [primarily, the United States which compared to 2017 is more than double of electric vehicles
($66 × 109 ), China ($45 × 109 ), and Korea ($33 × 109 ) as per that were registered in 2018.38 With 1.11 × 106 automobiles sold,
International Monetary Fund (IMF) report 2018]. China continues to lead the globe in sales of electric vehicles; there
The literature that is now available on global electrification are currently 2.30 × 106 electric vehicles in use.39 Leading to the
initiatives emphasizes how important it is to switch to electric rising trends in electric vehicle manufacturing and market share,
technology to mitigate climate change and lessen reliance on fossil many countries around the globe have set goals and made policies
fuels. The use of electric vehicles (EVs) and the development of to fix out internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs).40 By reveal-
charging infrastructure have advanced significantly in developed ing a schedule to stop making internal combustion engine vehicles
nations worldwide.26,27 In contrast, the literature on developing (ICEVs), many developing nations worldwide have approved the
nations emphasizes their particular prospects and difficulties, Paris Agreement goals and followed electrification of the transport
especially those in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Significant sector, such as the UK, France, Germany, and the Netherlands,
obstacles include limited infrastructure, high initial prices, and by 2040.41,42

FIG. 1. Oil consumption in Pakistan.25 Data sourced from HDIP (2021). Pakistan FIG. 2. Electric cars registration in China, United States, and Europe
Energy Yearbook 2021. Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan, govern- (2016–2021).43 Data sourced from International Energy Agency (IEA). Global EV
ment of Pakistan. “Adapted from Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2021, Hydrocarbon Outlook 2019; IEA: Paris, France. 2019. “Adapted from Global EV Outlook 2019,
Development Institute of Pakistan, government of Pakistan. Reproduced under International Energy Agency (IEA), Paris, France. Reproduced under the terms of
the terms of fair use for educational and research purposes.” Copyright HDIP. the licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.”

AIP Advances 14, 035320 (2024); doi: 10.1063/5.0193506 14, 035320-3

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TABLE II. Policy measures to promote the adoption of EVs.43 Data sourced from International Energy Agency (IEA). Global
EV Outlook 2019; IEA: Paris, France. 2019. Adapted from Global EV Outlook 2019, International Energy Agency (IEA), Paris,
France. Reproduced under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license.”

Policy actions Average Effective Efficiency Possibility

Plugs lobby 4.26 4.15 4.48 4.16
Infrastructure and support built up 4.16 4.32 4.16 3.99
Management in political features 4.02 4.35 4.16 4.00
EVs initiatives 4.01 4.01 3.74 4.24
Deliver data to people 4.02 3.82 3.82 4.01
Newly developed EV requirements 3.73 4.00 3.83 3.40
Enable roaming between regions 3.64 3.85 3.72 3.32
EVs reserve on-street parking spaces 3.60 4.00 3.66 3.16
EVs toll tax relaxation 3.32 4.01 3.41 2.61
EV’s promotion of citizen 3.21 3.78 3.61 2.21

To diminish the dependence on non-renewable energy sources transport sector can assist in minimizing carbon emissions related
and minimize the injurious carbon emissions formed due to the to transportation.46,47
burning of fossil fuels in IC engines, many developing countries Due to the advancement of lithium batteries and charging
worldwide have planned policies to make the transport sector safe station development, the ownership costs of electric vehicles are
and sustainable. To encourage ECs in developing countries, Table II falling. Due to the surge of carbon emissions, penetrating compe-
signifies the ephemeral evaluation of various incentives provided tition, and recent research, electric vehicle costs are dropping day by
by governments. For green transportation systems, electrification day.48 Since 2010, Europe has been the most dynamic area globally
of agility is a capable choice if energy generation is decarbonized due to the suggestion of EC adoption. In 2019, Chinese adminis-
by substituting non-renewable energy sources with renewables. tration made China the prime EC marketplace by giving incentives

24 October 2024 08:19:27

To reduce carbon emissions, many developing countries around to manufacturing companies. A future way forward for freight
the globe have acknowledged transport electrification as a possible transport is also being established by China, with inclusive esti-
and feasible solution.44,45 By 2030, the Sustainable Development mation made on electrification as well as public transportation.
Goals of the United Nations aim to provide a safe, reasonable, In China, the standard of public transport electrification increased
available, and sustainable transportation system, in particular to 459 100 units and electric bikes touched 301 × 106 in 2018.49
through increasing the sustainability and resilience of passenger Table III shows the major automaker announcements on electrifi-
mobility. To meet SDG requirements, technological goals, and cation to promote Electric Vehicles (EVs).
environmental safety, many European countries have been Pakistan, the seventh most climate-vulnerable country, needs
endorsing extensive implementation of ECs. Significantly, the use of to think about sustainable energy options.31,51 Road transportation
Electric Vehicles (EVs) with the adaptation of SDGs in the current accounts for 18% of Pakistan’s total CO2 emissions and is dependent

TABLE III. Important electric vehicle announcement (2021–2022).50 Data sourced from Dechamps, The IEA World Energy
Outlook 2022–A brief analysis and implications. Eur. Energy Clim. J., 2023. 11(3), 100–103. Adapted from Dechamps, Eur.
Energy Clim. J., 11(3), 100–103, 2023. Reproduced under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license.”

Date of
Carmaker announcement Objectives

Toyota 2021 By 2030, 3.50 × 106 car sales annually and the rollout of 30 BEV
models
Volkswagen 2021 To exceed 70 and 50% of European, Chinese, and US sales of
EVs by 2030 and 100% to be ZEVs
Ford 2022 By 2030, Europe will sell one-third of electric automobiles
BMW 2021 50% of new cars sold in 2030 will be all-electric
Volvo 2021 To establish an all-electric automotive firm by 2030
Geely 2021 20% of new automobile sales will be electrified by 2025
Mercedes 2021 By 2030, all newly introduced vehicles will be entirely electric
General Motors 2022 By 2025, North America will be able to produce 1 × 106 BEVs
and 30 EV variants

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on non-renewable energy sources.52 Air pollution is the primary of Pakistan for transport division have been established and
cause of 310 000 deaths in the nation each year, highlighting the evaluated in terms of environmental perspectives. This research is
severe environmental conditions that citizens must endure.53 The both timely and novel in light of the severe global climate problem
government’s focus on electric vehicles (EVs) as an environmentally and the urgent need for sustainable transportation solutions. This
beneficial alternative was prompted by growing air pollution research directly addresses current policy issues and the critical need
concerns and their link to road transportation.31 According to recent for practical strategies to mitigate climate change in the context of
media reports, the Pakistani government wants to switch 90% of its Pakistan’s increasing urbanization and expanding emissions from
fleet of vehicles to electric power by 2040.54–56 the transportation sector.
There is a sizable market for imported hybrid cars in Pakistan,
including Honda Fit, Toyota Prius, and Honda Vezel.57 Although
there are a few electric cars on the road, such as Plug-in Hybrid
II. METHODOLOGY
Toyota Prius, Audio e-Tron, BMW, Nissan Leaf, and Tesla Model
S, precise statistics regarding the number of electric cars in Pakistan The Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system
are not yet accessible.58 The data indicate that Pakistan is not just a is utilized in this study’s scenario-based modeling technique to eval-
developing market for automakers but also that policymakers should uate the possible effects of electric vehicle (EV) adoption on green-
give careful consideration to developing frameworks and regula- house gas (GHG) emissions and reduction probability in Pakistan’s
tions that support the decrease in emissions and the use of fossil transportation sector. LEAP was selected because of its extensive
fuels. use in research evaluating energy and environmental transitions, as
There are several significant gaps in the literature that need well as its ability to accurately capture the complexities of energy
to be filled to fully understand electrification in Pakistan. There is systems. With the help of the LEAP model, it is possible to analyze
limited knowledge regarding the socioeconomic and cultural aspects various scenarios dynamically and simulate different levels of EV
that impact the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) and the trans- adoption, changes in energy sources, and governmental interven-
portation sector’s general electrification in Pakistan. Examining tions over time. An extensively used and adaptable software tool
these factors is essential to customizing methods and regulations for energy policy analysis and climate change mitigation evalua-
that appeal to the community and make the shift to sustainable tion is the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model.
transportation easier. Moreover, further investigation is needed Utilizing a variety of data sources, the simulation-based model LEAP
into the economic and environmental effects of electrification in projects future possibilities related to energy use, emissions, and

24 October 2024 08:19:27

Pakistan. In a developing nation, such as Pakistan, an analysis of policy effects.62
the long-term sustainability and economic viability of electrification The World Bank and the UNEP provided financing for the
initiatives is also necessary. Boston-based Stockholm Environment Institute to create the LEAP
The air quality of major industrial cities of Pakistan is model, a long-range examination model used for energy modeling
hazardous because of transportation.59 Therefore, Pakistan pol- and planning, and several developing nations use LEAP to compile
icymakers should properly plan and execute energy-saving and national climate change reports.63 The LEAP energy model is used
sustainable energy policies. To achieve its aim of an emission-free in ∼195 countries for assessing GHG emissions, environmental
Pakistan, the government of Pakistan has created targets for impacts, energy demand, and energy generation. Globally, the
improving the air quality index for the transportation sector. These LEAP model is a standard tool for energy forecasting, planning, and
goals include rationalizing safe driving, transportation costs, road development that is used for future energy demand prediction.64,65
networks, industrial cities, and the connection of provinces. Pakistan The benefits of using the LEAP energy modeling software involve
government has made a “National Transportation Policy (NTP)” easily manageable time frames, less initial data requirements, and
based on Vision 2025, which includes numerous transport user-friendliness. LEAP predicts the energy consumption, demand,
sector expansion ingenuities.60 The prime aim of this NTP is to and environmental consequences of energy zones to compare
deliver harmless transport services. The government must deal with energy demand and consumption in detail, which estimates the
actual implementations of this approach. The Pakistani government advantages of every scenario.66 To examine the removal and
has implemented rapid transit systems based on the NTP plan consumption of energy resources across various economic
immediately in three major cities.61 In the transport sector, to sectors, LEAP offers a user-friendly, scenario-based modeling
save the environment and energy, Pakistan needs emission-free approach. The LEAP model is suitable for Pakistan’s transportation
transport, and policymakers should move toward modern technolo- modeling framework due to low initial data requirements and
gies, such as EVs to reduce carbon emissions from the transport built-in technology.
sector. Several scenarios relating to Pakistan’s road transportation
The urgent need to address the nexus of transportation, electrification were simulated and projected using the LEAP model.
sustainability, and climate change, especially in the local context The methodology framework includes the key parameters that were
of Pakistan, motivates the conduct of this research. Public health incorporated into the LEAP model, including the composition of the
and welfare are seriously threatened by the growing air pollution vehicle fleet, the mix of conventional and electric vehicles, infras-
problem, which is mostly the result of transportation that is tructure development, policy interventions, and existing energy
dependent on fossil fuels. The goal of this research is to support consumption patterns. The LEAP model provided insights into the
the worldwide effort to combat climate change and the aim of economic and environmental consequences of different electrifi-
sustainable development, which are intrinsically linked to larger cation scenarios by allowing the investigation of possible future
socioeconomic and environmental imperatives. Various scenarios trajectories through the manipulation of these parameters.

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The first stage is gathering and entering data into the LEAP know about transport sector emission analysis and future recom-
model, including the amount of energy that is currently consumed in mendations. To make a baseline scenario, these data are required for
the transportation sector, the distribution of both conventional and LEAP tree progress and future energy/fuel demand forecasting. The
electric vehicles, and the policies that are now in place. A wide range accuracy of the mitigation scenarios is directly related to the data
of variables, including the rate at which electric vehicles are adopted, used for BAU for emission forecasting quality.
prospective technological advancements, the development of In this study, outcomes were estimated and proved through the
infrastructure, and policy implementation, are taken into account available statistics using appropriate emissions standards for differ-
while creating scenarios. The goal of these scenarios is to cap- ent fuel types. Using LEAP, four different scenarios, including BAU,
ture a variety of positive outcomes for Pakistan’s electrification LC, SLC, and National Electric Vehicle Policy (NEVP) 2040 sce-
of road transportation. Over the 30-year projection period, a narios, were created and examined for the transportation sector of
deep understanding of the possible outcomes is made possible Pakistan. For the year 2019–2050, various measures on energy con-
by the dynamic simulation of interactions between the defined sumption and emissions were evaluated and all scenarios were also
scenarios by the LEAP model. To provide insights into the instantaneously compared.
environmental effects of various electrification options, the LEAP Many developing nations around the globe have developed
model computes the greenhouse gas emissions related to each long-term transportation plans for energy-environment planning
scenario. using LEAP. A LEAP model based in Nigeria was discussed with
Carbon emission reduction policies and measures were quan- various pathways, such as BAU, electric vehicles, GDP-evolution,
tified as LEAP input measures using data from Pakistan’s road and public transport for utilization of EVs.62 In Korea, Sungjun
transportation. This research is based on the transportation Hong using LEAP analyzed Korea’s GHG reduction related to trans-
sector of Pakistan’s fuel consumption. Five different data sources portation. For reducing GHG emissions by 32% by 2030, Korea has
were used for the base year (HDIP, PAMA, IEA, yearly Energy established specific regulations.67 Ling–Yung worked on policy ini-
Book, and OGRA). To obtain a clearer picture of fuel consumption, tiatives to reduce harmful greenhouse gas emissions associated with
data were then disaggregated and discrete scenarios were created. China’s transportation industry. These included integrating and
The LEAP tree model is shown in Fig. 3. Four different mitigation examining many approaches that included electric vehicles (EVs)
scenarios were developed and analyzed, including the BAU scenario. using the LEAP model.65 Using LEAP forecasting of transportation
Therefore, the energy demand for each sector of the transport in Malaysia, Musharraf Azam analyzed emission estimation.68 A
industry using the LEAP model is considered based on different detailed review of earlier studies related to transportation and energy

24 October 2024 08:19:27

constraint value sets under various scenarios to measure the emis- usage is shown in Table IV.
sion outcomes by multiplying different pollutant emission factors. To gain a better understanding of policy measures, the electric
Data on carbon emissions from all sectors of Pakistan were obtained vehicle policies of various states, such as China, the UK, the USA,
from the International Energy Agency, the Federal Institutes of and Norway, were considered, which caused better implementation
Pakistan, and the World Bank. Data on the quantity of registered of electric vehicles in these regions. This study’s outcomes will sup-
automobiles for Pakistan were attained from the Finance Ministry port the extensive literature survey carried out for the adoption of
GOP and Economic Survey 2018, which is a useful parameter to electric vehicles in Pakistan.

FIG. 3. Pakistan’s transport sector LEAP tree diagram.

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TABLE IV. Summary of previous research on energy usage and transportation.

Authors Country Time frame Method Major findings

Verdezoto et al. (2019) Brazil 2010–2016 LEAP model Due to the purchase of new hydropower plants, hydel
energy will be available in 2030, at 63512 GWh,
which is 3.26 times more energy than in 2011 and
was predicted to save 15 × 106 BOE
Asim et al. (2022) Pakistan 2019–2035 LEAP model Diverse scenarios are examined, and outcomes are
predicted for 17 years. The outcomes of the study
reflect that EV implementation can cause a substan-
tial drop in transportation emissions
Raza et al. (2019) USA 1973–2015 HWT The outcomes illustrate that electric vehicles (EVs)
have a significant impact on carbon emissions over
the short, long, and medium terms
Gao et al. (2012) China 1985–2015 Decoupling The findings show that there is a weak decoupling
elasticity (54.19%) between the development of the industry
index model and overall electric mobility
Zhang et al. (2019) China Train time table Bi-level Results show that the EC is pointing upward by more
model than 7.6%
Aized et al. (2018) Pakistan 2011–2030 LEAP model This work is based on four scenarios, with the trans-
portation sector’s EC increasing from 13.30 Mtoe in
2012 to 64.61 Mtoe in 2030

24 October 2024 08:19:27

S. Hong et al. (2016) Korea 2011–2050 LEAP model The South Korean government declared its intention
to cut national GHG emissions by 30% by 2020
Wang et al. (2022) China 2020–2025 LEAP model Under the baseline scenario, emissions from trans-
portation increased at a rate of 20% yearly, while
emissions expressively reduced under the LC sce-
nario and the SLC scenario
Naveed Ahmed Unar Pakistan 2011–2030 Load growth In Pakistan, the total energy demand for EVs was
et al. (2022) model 24.61 GWh in 2020 and climbed to 2873.64 GWh in
2030
Musharraf Azam et al. Malaysia 2012–2040 LEAP model Key findings demonstrate that the NGV scenario,
(2015) followed by BIO and HEV, contributes to the biggest
reduction in road transport energy usage

III. OVERVIEW OF EMISSIONS FROM PAKISTAN’S In Pakistan, due to insufficient infrastructure, machinery,
TRANSPORTATION SECTOR extraction localities, and oil refineries, fossil fuels produced locally
A. Fuel consumption of Pakistan’s transportation are not enough to fulfill Pakistan’s demand for petrol and diesel. So,
to fulfill its energy demand, Pakistan spends billions of dollars every
The annual growth rate of Pakistan is 7.98%, and Pakistan’s year. In recent years, due to the ongoing CPEC project develop-
transportation energy consumption has increased significantly over ment, rapidly growing residents, and increasing demand for cars, an
the past few years. Pakistan’s transport sector emitted 40.81 MMT extension of highways has subsidized to a quick rise in fuel use.
of CO2 and discharged about 17.91 × 106 tonnes during the Figure 4 illustrates the energy usage from 2003 to 2018 in Pakistan’s
fiscal year 2018. Due to a surge in energy usage by domestic, transport sector.
commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors, Pakistan’s
energy consumption in 2018 was 9.8% higher than the last
year. In the fiscal year 2018, gasoline and diesel consumption B. Various types of fuel consumption
increased due to newly installed transportation structure and local Pakistan’s transport sector is heavily dependent on oil. The
manufacturing companies with an ACGR of 16.91% and 7.12%, majority of medium-scale vehicles are petrol-motorized, while
respectively.69 freight transport is high-speed diesel-powered. Since 2012, CNG

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13% annually.31 In Pakistan, most cars, motorbikes, and tractors

are locally factory-made, while public transport buses and freight
vehicles are imported in big numbers with every passing year.
With every passing year, due to modernization, the need for
vehicles is increasing rapidly in Pakistan; consequently, automotive
industry is expanding more rapidly than other manufacturing
sectors. Since the past decade, Japanese automakers, such as Honda,
Toyota, and Suzuki, as well as Korean automakers, such as Hyundai
and Kia, have become significant market shareholders. JDM
automobiles have significantly increased in number on the roads in
recent years; in addition, European luxury car and SUV producers,
such as Audi, BMW, Porsche, and Mercedes Benz, have also experi-
enced growth in Pakistan.14 Since domestic businesses produce the
FIG. 4. Fuel usage of Pakistan’s transport sector.70 Data sourced from Pervaz, majority of the two- and three-wheelers in Pakistan, the automotive
Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2017. Inf. téc. Islamabad: Ministry of Energy (Petroleum
Division), Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan, 2018. “Adapted from manufacturing industry has contributed to the country’s economy’s
Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2017, authored by Pervaz, published by the Ministry expansion. Figure 7 illustrates the registered automobiles in the
of Energy (Petroleum Division), Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan, country. The public’s reaction to the adoption of electric vehicles
Islamabad, 2018. Reproduced under the Author, licensed under a Creative has fallen short of expectations because of the recently established
Commons Attribution 4.0 License.” NEVP and a lack of information among the general public regarding
EV adoption and its effects on the environment.
consumption in Pakistan’s transportation has been incessantly drop-
ping due to irregular surges in cost. Due to the induction of advanced E. CO2 emission from fuel consumption
diesel engines, specifically in the farming sector and other sectors,
Pakistan generated about 181 MMT of CO2 through the
LDO consumption has decreased in recent years and now relies on
burning of fossil fuels, according to the IEA 2019 study. Currently,
HSD. Due to the accumulation of advanced and environmentally
31% of Pakistan’s yearly carbon emissions are attributable to the
safe engines in vehicles, high-octane blending component (HOBC)
transportation industry.72 The overall trend for transportation-
demand increased, for example in Euro 3&4 engines. The challenges

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related CO2 emissions in developed nations, such as the US and
posed by RON 87 gasoline, which can cause severe knocking issues
UK, is 17%–20%.73 In 2018, Pakistan produced 47.8 MMT of CO2
in engines, have been addressed by European cars as well as some of
through the production of heat and electricity, 2.51 MMT through
the newest prototypes of Pakistani factory-made vehicles. The mini-
industrial applications, 49.53 MMT through goods production
mum quality fuel allowed for petrol engines in Pakistan is 92 RON,
sectors, 56.61 MMT through the transportation industry, and 25.62
as regulatory bodies have developed guidelines to address this mat-
MMT through other industries.14
ter. The purpose of this solution is to ensure the smooth operation
Figure 8 shows the sector-wise emissions due to the burning
of gasoline-powered vehicles and reduce knocking issues in internal
of fossil fuels in Pakistan. Pakistan has seen a consistent increase in
combustion engines. Figures 5(a)–5(e) illustrate various types of fuel
CO2 emissions over the past ten years. Pakistan has a lot of poten-
consumption demand in Pakistan.
tial in terms of sustainable energy and reducing carbon emissions.
The transition toward green and clean energy will open the door for
C. Fuel mix of Pakistan transport sector electric cars in Pakistan, which will reduce emissions in upcoming
Pakistan’s road transport plays a major role in the economic years. Figure 9 shows the CO2 emitted from fuel combustion.
structure. Road transport indirectly subsidizes economic develop-
ment by linking manufacturing markets to consumption markets
and by enabling the travel of the public. Pakistan’s major income IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
comes from the agricultural sector, also known as an agriculture- A. Business as usual (BAU) scenario
based economy, and a majority of its freight is moved by rail and Globally, the transport sector contributes 20%–25% of CO2 and
the road transport system. In Pakistan, the most used HSD for other GHG emissions. The transportation sector in Pakistan, which
transportation has the highest percent share among all other fuels. is one of the fastest-growing industries, uses 17.69 × 106 TOE of
During the fiscal year 2018, Pakistan used CNG to produce 9 632 741 fossil fuel energy and releases 58.88 MMT of CO2 and other harmful
tons of high-speed diesel, 7 736 017 tons of gasoline, 12 100 tons emissions.14 According to the BAU scenario, in the current socioe-
of light diesel, 129 382 tons of high octane blending component, conomic situation, GHG emission levels will rise by 2050 if such
and 1 558 648 tons of energy equal to oil.14 As the number of conditions continue to exist. According to LEAP calculations, under
vehicles is uninterruptedly growing at a similar speed, the numbers the BAU scenario, energy consumption in Pakistan’s transportation
are predicted to increase every year at an estimated rate of 14.1%. sector will increase by 153.8 × 106 and 1904.0 × 106 TOE in
Figure 6 shows Pakistan’s fuel mix through a pie chart. 2035 and 2050, respectively. The BAU scenario results also indicate
that if there is no specific change in the price of oil globally,
D. Vehicle fleet in Pakistan Pakistan’s expenditures on importing fossil fuels will increase with
In Pakistan, there were about 23.58 × 106 automobiles reg- the same trend as the fuel values. This is because Pakistan’s trans-
istered as of 2018, and this number is expanding at a pace of portation sector depends more on imported fuels. As per existing

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FIG. 5. (a) Light diesel oil, (b) blending component, (c) high-speed diesel, (d) CNG, and (e) motor spirit.70 Data sourced from Pervaz, Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2017. Inf.
téc. Islamabad: Ministry of Energy (Petroleum Division), Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan, 2018. “Adapted from Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2017, authored by
Pervaz, published by the Ministry of Energy (Petroleum Division), Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan, Islamabad, 2018. Reproduced under the Author, licensed
under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.”

circumstances, the transport sector’s emissions in Pakistan will total B. Low carbon (LC) scenario
453.6 MMT by 2035 and 6192.1 MMT by 2050. There is a strong
recommendation for rapid decarbonization and restriction of fossil After the natural increase in automobiles, a study of the world-
fuel usage as per trends attained from the BAU scenario. Figure 10(a) wide market for new energy vehicles found that the low carbon
indicates an elaborative energy demand forecast for Pakistan from (LC) scenario involves an extension toward clean road traffic and
2019 to 2050, and Fig. 11(a) indicates GWP of 100 years: carbon a decline in the use of internal combustion engines in public
dioxide emissions from different vehicle categories under the transit. To meet the emission limits outlined in COP 21, 22, 23, and
baseline scenario until 2050. 24, it is projected that 30% of all IC engine cars will be electrified

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FIG. 6. Pakistan transport sector’s fuel mix 2018.70 Data sourced from Pervaz,
FIG. 8. Pakistan sectorial CO2 emissions 2018.71 Data sourced from GOP, 2020.
Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2017. Inf. téc. Islamabad: Ministry of Energy (Petroleum
Pakistan Economic Survey 2019–20. Ministry of Finance, Govt. of Pakistan,
Division), Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan, 2018. “Adapted from
Pakistan. “Adapted from Pakistan Economic Survey 2019–20, published by the
Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2017, authored by Pervaz, published by the Ministry
Ministry of Finance, Government of Pakistan, in 2020. Reproduced under the,
of Energy (Petroleum Division), Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan,
licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.”
Islamabad, 2018. Reproduced under the Author, licensed under a Creative
Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

24 October 2024 08:19:27

FIG. 7. Vehicle registrations in Pakistan between 2006 and 2018.71 Data sourced
from GOP, 2020. Pakistan Economic Survey 2019–20. Ministry of Finance, Govt. of
Pakistan, Pakistan. Adapted from Pakistan Economic Survey 2019–20, published FIG. 9. Pakistan’s fuel consumption-related CO2 emissions.25 Data sourced
by the Ministry of Finance, Government of Pakistan, in 2020. Reproduced under from HDIP. (2021). Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2021. Hydrocarbon Development
the, licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Institute of Pakistan, Government of Pakistan. “Adapted from Pakistan Energy
Yearbook 2021, Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan, Government of
Pakistan. Reproduced under the terms of fair use for educational and research
purposes.”
globally during the next 12 years as per the International Energy
Agency (IEA) report. The International Energy Agency V30 drive
has predicted that the expansion of electric car (EC) chargers
3050.5 MMT, respectively, as opposed to 453.6 and 6192.1 MMT
will boost the interest of automobile manufacturer companies in
under the BAU scenario. Figure 10(b) indicates an elaborative
the development of electric cars (ECs) to raise awareness of the
demand prediction for Pakistan from 2019 to 2050, and Fig. 11(b)
importance of using ECs in the future. By creating efficient
indicates GWP of 100 years: emissions of different vehicle cate-
regulations for charging stations and other incentives under the
gories under the LC scenario until 2050. The LC scenario emphasizes
LC Scenario, transportation policy research is being ramped up to
encouraging the use of substitute fuels and improving fuel efficiency.
increase EV use in the country. In this scenario (LC) to electrify 30%
To achieve the LC scenario requirements, major hurdles are the cost
of the fleet of vehicles, a LEAP model is built for demand analysis
of alternative fuels, the deficiency of fueling infrastructure, the lack
by using IEA V30 conditions utilizing 2018 data for projecting
of funding, and the need for noteworthy reserves to expand the fuel
energy demand and emission results using the base year circum-
efficiency of existing vehicles.
stances until 2050 for Pakistan’s transportation sector. According
to the findings, the energy demand in 2035 under the LC scenario
C. Strengthen low carbon (SLC) scenario
is 102.4 × 106 TOE, as opposed to 153.8 × 106 TOE under the
baseline scenario, and in 2050, it is 1371.9 × 106 TOE as opposed to This scenario emphasizes long-range planning and develop-
1904.0 × 106 TOE under the baseline scenario. In 2035 and 2050, ment for the accomplishment of environment-friendly and clean
the related CO2 emissions under the LC scenario are 302.7 and transportation in Pakistan and competitive milestones achieved by

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FIG. 10. (a) Energy demand related to BAU scenario, (b) energy demand related to LC scenario, (c) energy demand related to SLC scenario, and (d) energy demand related
to NEVP 2040 scenario.

a 50% transition from IC engines to EVs by 2050. Many developing In 2035, the SLC scenario predicts an energy demand of
nations, including those in Europe, have developed effective plans 82.3 × 106 TOE as compared to 153.8 × 106 tons of oil equivalent
to lessen the consequences of the severe pollutants and emissions under the baseline scenario. In the same way, the demand for energy
due to the burning of fossil fuels. One such plan is to encourage in 2050 will be 1102.9 × 106 tons of oil equivalent as compared
the use of electric cars (ECs) in the transportation sector to cut to 1904.0 × 106 tons of oil equivalent in the BAU scenario. Results
emissions. In this scenario, in addition to the LC scenario, a new show that the transport sector contributed 202.7 MMT of CO2
feasibility policy of energy for the transport sector of Pakistan emissions in 2035 under LSE conditions, related to 452.6 MMT
is further proposed based on the development and placement of under the baseline scenario, and 1872.7 MMT in 2050, compared to
electric vehicles. The SLC scenario is an improved version of the Low 6192.1 MMT in the BAU scenario. Under the SLC scenario in terms
Carbon (LC) scenario that emphasizes clean road traffic, banning of fossil fuels usage, a significant reduction in energy demand and
internal combustion engines in public transit, introducing electric emissions under such recommendations is achievable. Figure 10(c)
and hybrid vehicles, and implementing new energy exchange reg- indicates an elaborative energy demand forecast for Pakistan from
ulations for the transportation industry. By keeping the global 2019 to 2050, and Fig. 11(c) indicates GWP of 100 years: carbon
temperature increase to within 2 ○ C, the SLC scenario achieves all emissions of different vehicle categories under the SLC scenario
the requirements to implement the policies specified by the Euro- until 2050.
pean Union and Paris Agreement. By 2050, global GHG emissions The main objective of the SLC scenario is to decrease emissions
should be 80% lower than they were in 1990, according to the SLC coming from transportation by encouraging use of electric vehicles
scenario. Applying these requirements to Pakistan’s transportation and sustainable energy sources. To achieve the SLC scenario, key
industry under the SLC scenario suggests the potential for rapid hurdles are the high cost of electric vehicles, charging station
decarbonization. infrastructure, and the related significant investments and the

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FIG. 11. (a) Carbon emissions related to BAU scenario, (b) carbon emissions related to LC scenario, (c) carbon emissions related to SLC scenario, and (d) carbon emissions
related to NEVP scenario.

requirement for a steady and reliable power supply from renewable 100 years: emissions of different vehicle categories under the NEVP
energy sources. scenario until 2050.
The NEVP 2040 scenario focuses on encouraging the imple-
D. Pakistan national electric vehicle policy (NEVP) mentation of EVs and intends to attain a 30% share of EVs in the
2040 scenario country by 2040. To achieve the NEVP 2040 scenario, key hurdles
To cut emissions from the transportation sector, Pakistan’s are the lack of supportive policies and timely policy implementa-
government eventually created its first Electric Vehicle (EV) tion, the cost of EVs, and insufficient charging station infrastructure.
regulation in late 2019. As per Pakistan’s NEVP 2030 goals, the In addition, to guarantee a reliable and constant power supply for
government of Pakistan intends to have the following percentages electric vehicles, there is a requirement for significant investments
of electric vehicles on the roadways by 2030: 30% automobiles, in sustainable energy resources.
51% 2–3 wheelers, 49% buses, and 30% trucks. Under the NEVP
2040 scenario, 90% of IC engine vehicles are expected to be replaced E. Comparison of BAU, LC, SLC, and NEVP 2040
by EVs by 2040. According to NEVP 2040 conditions and policy scenarios
changes, there can be considerable short- and long-term reductions It is perceived that the BAU scenario has the maximum
in energy use and related emissions over the long run in Pakistan’s fuel/energy demand and related CO2 emissions values in the long
transportation industry. Under NEVP 2040, outcomes have revealed term (1904.0 × 106 TOE energy demand and 6192.8 MMT emissions
a minimum energy demand and related emissions that are 670 × 106 in 2050). The actions of many governments under the BAU sce-
TOE and 243.4 MMT, which are lower than all other scenarios in nario included several economic growth initiatives, such as energy
2050. Figure 10(d) indicates an elaborative energy demand forecast infrastructure projects, which will directly affect the transportation
for Pakistan from 2019 to 2050, and Fig. 11(d) indicates GWP of fleet, energy usage, and associated emissions of the transportation

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FIG. 12. (a) Energy demand comparison of all scenarios and (b) CO2 emission comparison of all scenarios.

sector. The LC scenario is the second scenario in descending order, VI. CONCLUSION
which anticipates an energy demand of 152.7 × 106 TOE and CO2 Among all sectors in Pakistan, the transportation sector is the
emissions of 453.6 MMT in 2035. The baseline scenario, which one with the largest energy use. As a result, it ranks highly among the
comes in the first place in the ranking, is predicted to have an GHG pollutant emitters in the country, having a significant impact
energy requirement of 1371.9 × 106 TOE and CO2 emissions of on both air pollution and climate change. This study’s main goal
3050.5 MMT in 2050. Energy usage can be significantly reduced was to shed light on the transportation sector’s GHG emissions in

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both temporarily and permanently, along with the emissions related Pakistan and how those emissions might alter in response to four
to the transportation sector of Pakistan as per NEVP 2040 con- different mitigation options. In this study, using the LEAP model,
ditions and policies. Under the NEVP 2040 scenario, results have by gathering data of Pakistan’s transportation sector, emission
shown the minimum energy demand and emissions, which are levels in several scenarios were calculated in detail from 2019 to
670 × 106 TOE and 243.4 MMT, lower than all other scenarios 2050. Time series trends are developed and authorized in Pakistan
in 2050. Figure 12(a) indicates an elaborative evaluation of the based on accurate statistics given by the government of Pakistan
energy consumption in various scenarios, and Fig. 12(b) indicates and various international organizations (UN, UNFCCC, and
an elaborative comparison of CO2 emissions in all scenarios. IEA). These statistics cover particular fuel consumption (gasoline,
HOBC, HSD, LDO, and CNG), emissions from the burning of
fossil fuels, and the number of locally made and registered vehicles.
V. LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE RECOMMENDATIONS To endorse zero-emissions agility by looking at Pakistan’s available
The reliability and quality of the input data are key factors in the energy resources, renewable energy potential, worldwide transport
Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) scenario-based flexibility, and regulatory procedures, a comprehensive literature
modeling approach’s accuracy. The precision of our estimates could review was presented based on sustainable and clean transport
be affected by variations in data sources and possible mistakes in scenarios and policies. Four different scenarios (BAU, LC, SLC, and
historical data. The LEAP model’s forecasts are inevitably reliant Pakistan NEVP 2040) were developed and evaluated in the LEAP
on the assumptions made regarding potential future advancements, software for forecasting energy and associated emissions up to 2050.
including improvements in technology and policy changes. In Outcomes specify that from 2019 to 2050, the total road transport
addition, the study mainly addresses environmental issues; more sector energy consumption will increase by about 3.7 times due
comprehensive socioeconomic factors related to electric vehicles to the persistence of present patterns and the absence of new pol-
may be investigated in future studies. icy initiatives. We can see under the BAU scenario that Pakistan’s
Future studies should aim to improve forecast accuracy road transportation sector would continue to produce significantly
by improving data quality and investigating different modeling more CO2 emissions to fulfill future, stringent traffic demands.
approaches to overcome these limitations. Future research might The findings indicate that Pakistan’s energy demand and associated
include a more thorough analysis that takes into account social emissions are highest under the BAU scenario, while they are low-
acceptance, economic implications, and potential obstacles to EV est under the NEVP 2040 scenario for the country’s transportation
adoption in the Pakistan setting to increase the study’s scope and sector.
relevance. Engaging in partnerships with various stakeholders, such This study offers an evidence-based method for policy for-
as government agencies, industry leaders, and advocacy organiza- mulation, which makes a substantial contribution to the existing
tions, can provide significant benefits and improve the relevance of research. Policymakers may predict the possible effects of different
future studies to practical policies and practices. levels of EV adoption and make well-informed decisions by using

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