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Grade 10
Module 11. Probability
Index
1. Probability Terminology
2. Probability Examples
3. Probability of Compound Events
4. Venn Diagrams
5. Set Theory: Intersections and Unions; Mutually Exclusive and
Complementary Events
6. Further Examples

Reference: Alamy
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1. Probability Terminology
To understand probability, you must understand the following:
• An event is something that may or may not happen e.g. tossing a coin
• An outcome is the result of an event e.g. the coin shows a Head
• Possible Outcomes are all the results that can happen when an event
happens e.g. if a coin is tossed, the possible outcomes are Heads or Tails
• Probability is the likelihood of something happening or not happening. E.g.
the probability of tossing a coin and scoring a Heads is 1 out of 2 possible
outcomes.
The chance of an event happening is either impossible or certain, or somewhere
in between.
Let us look at a probability line:

Reference:
mathsisfun.com

As well as words, we can use numbers to show the probability of something

happening.
Using fractions:

Using percentages:

Using decimals:
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Thus:
• The probability of an event will not be less than 0.
• The probability of an event will not be more than 1.

Example 1: Find the probability that the following will happen:

a) The sun will rise tomorrow.
b) Monday follows directly after Tuesday.
c) A coin lands on Heads after a toss.
d) In 2050 Christmas Day will happen before New Year’s Day.
e) In 2082 New Year’s Day will happen before Christmas Day.

Example 2: The following picture shows you all about the cards in a pack of cards.

Reference:
Dreamstime
.com

It is very important that you know the terminology of these.

a) How many cards in a pack?
b) What are the four suites in a pack? Identify each of them.
c) How many of each suite are there in a pack?
d) How many 4’s are there in a pack of cards?
e) How many cards have pictures on them?
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2. Probability Examples
Example 5: There are 10 coloured, numbered buttons in a bag: six yellow buttons;
three blue buttons and one red button:

Reference: Ukuqonda Grade

8 Learner Book

Now answer the following questions:

a) What fraction of the total number of buttons is yellow?

b) What fraction of the total number of buttons is blue?

c) What fraction of the total number of buttons is red?

These answers are in fact the probability of getting each of the colours. If you had to
do the experiment of taking a button out of the bag and then returning it and then
taking out another one and returning it etc, this would result in the relative frequency
and these results would most probably differ from the theoretical probability.

Back to the above example:

d) What would the probability be of taking out a yellow button from the bag,
then replacing it, and then taking out a red button?

Example 6: Describe in words what is meant by saying the probability of an

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event is .
20
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Example 7: In an experiment a fair dice is thrown.

a) Write down the sample space for this experiment (all the possible outcomes)

b) Determine the probability of getting a 2.

c) Determine the probability of getting an even number.

d) Determine the probability of getting a number greater than 6.

e) Determine the probability of getting a number smaller than 5.

3. Probability of Compound Events

Example 1: In an experiment, a coin is tossed and a dice is thrown. A represents the

outcome of obtaining a Head and an even number.
a) Write down the sample space for the above experiment i.e. list all the possible
outcomes.

b) Write down set A.

c) What is the probability of obtaining a Head and an even number?

This is an example of a compound event.

To determine all the possible outcomes of a compound event, we can use a two-way
table or a tree diagram to help us.
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Using a two-way table

Example 2: What are the possible outcomes when two coins are thrown? Use a two-
way table to illustrate the possible outcomes:
Heads Tails
Heads

Tails

Using the above table, now answer the following questions:

a) What is the probability of getting a head and a tail in that order?

b) What is the probability of getting a head or a tail in any order?

c) What is the probability of getting two of the same?

Using a tree diagram

Example 3: What are the possible outcomes when two coins are thrown? Use a tree
diagram to illustrate the possible outcomes:

Possible Possible Possible

outcomes outcomes outcomes
for the for the of the
first event second compound
event event
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Using the above tree diagram, now answer the following questions:

a) What is the probability of getting a tail and a head in that order?

b) What is the probability of getting a tail and a head in any order?

c) What is the probability of getting two of the same?

Example 4: Rebecca has nine coloured beads in her bag. Four of the beads are
black and the rest are green. She removes a bead at random from the bag and notes
the colour before replacing it. She then chooses a second bead.
a) Draw a tree diagram showing all the possible outcomes.

b) Calculate the probability that Rebecca chooses:

(1) 2 green beads
(2) a black one followed by a green one
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4. Venn Diagrams
Venn diagrams are a graphical way of representing a sample space and its events.
In a Venn Diagram, you have a Sample S which is a rectangle that contains all the
elements in the set. Then you have individual events that are circles that contain part
of the elements inside this rectangle. Sometimes these circles overlap and
sometimes they don’t. We will look at what these all mean.

Reference:
Grade 10
Maths
Textbook

Picture 1 Picture 2 Picture 3

In Picture 1, the two events have an overlap of some of the elements.
In Picture 2, the two events do not have anything in common.
In Picture 3, all the elements of event B also lie in event A.

Example 1:
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Example 2: Suppose 9 cards are placed in a bag with the numbers 1 through to 9
written on them and a single card is drawn.
a) Write down the sample space for this experiment.

b) Write down the set A, selecting a number less than 5.

c) Write down the set of event B, selecting a number greater than 5.

d) Illustrate the above information on a Venn diagram.

e) Calculate P(A).

f) Calculate P(B).
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5. Set Theory
There is some very important Theory and Notations that you need to become familiar
with:

Let us look at what these mean in the following Venn Diagrams:

Diagram 2
Diagram 1

𝐴∩𝐵

𝑖𝑠 𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑦

Diagram 3 Diagram 4

So, when we talk about Event A OR Event B, we are talking about all the values in
event A as well as in Event B. If there is an overlap, we cannot count this overlap
twice, so we have the following theorem:

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵 ) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

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Mutually exclusive events have no items in common. This is illustrated in Diagram

3 from earlier.

This will result in 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0 (as there is no intersection), so for mutually

exclusive events we have the following:

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃 (𝐵 )

Complementary events are mutually exclusive events that cover all possible
outcomes in the sample.
Example: A card is either black or red. So, the events are mutually exclusive and
complementary.

The complement of event A is written as A’ Thus we can see from the diagram
below:
A and A’ make up the whole of S

Reference: Nagwa

When we look at this in terms of probability:

𝑃 (𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴′) = 1
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6. Further Examples
Example 1: Consider the sample space S = {1; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6; 7; 8; 9; 10; 11; 12} and
events A and B. A = {set of numbers smaller than 5} and B = {set of numbers bigger
than 7}

a) Draw a Venn diagram to represent events A and B.

b) Determine P(A), P(B), P(A or B) and P(A and B).

c) Are events A and B mutually exclusive?

Example 2: P(A) = 0,12 , the P(B) = 0,21 and P(A or B) = 0,03. Determine whether
the events are mutually exclusive or not.
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Example 3: Given the following Venn Diagram

A B

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6 8
9
5 7 10
11
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Use the diagram to answer the following questions:

a) Determine P(A); P(B); P(A’); 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

b) Are event A and B mutually exclusive? Verify your answer using values.

c) Are events A and B complementary? Verify your answer using values.