Page Industries: All-Round Beat Growth Acceleration To Sustain
Page Industries: All-Round Beat Growth Acceleration To Sustain
Page Industries: All-Round Beat Growth Acceleration To Sustain
Page Industries
Estimate change CMP: INR45,064 TP: INR54,000 (+20%) Upgrade to Buy
TP change
All-round beat; growth acceleration to sustain
Rating change
Page Industries (PAGE) reported sales growth of 11% in 2QFY25 (est. 7%;
Bloomberg PAG IN 4% in 1Q), with healthy 7% YoY volume growth (est. 3.5%; 3% in 1Q) to
Equity Shares (m) 11 55m. Demand improved sequentially, but a full recovery would be visible in
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 502.6 / 6 2HFY25. Demand uptick during the festive season has helped to further
52-Week Range (INR) 46818 / 33070
liquidate trade inventory by 3 days. The implementation of ARS system has
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 11/23/-4
12M Avg Val (INR M) 1010 been driving inventory efficiency for distributors, resulting in better
secondary order fulfilment. Primary growth was lagging behind secondary
Financials & Valuations (INR b) growth (~4% difference) due to high trade inventory; we believe it will
Y/E March 2024 2025E 2026E converge in 2HFY25. Thereby, healthy volume growth is expected to
Sales 45.8 50.0 57.5 sustain.
Sales Gr. (%) -2.8 9.1 15.1
EBITDA 8.7 9.9 11.7
Ecommerce channel continues to outpace overall brand growth, mainly led
EBITDA Margin (%) 19.0 19.7 20.4 by quick commerce. 1HFY25 ecommerce growth was 41%. We expect
Adj. PAT 5.7 6.7 8.1 demand improvement to continue in 2HFY25.
Adj. EPS (INR) 510.3 603.4 724.6 GM expanded by 80bp YoY/230bp QoQ to 56.5% on stable input costs.
EPS Gr. (%) -0.4 18.2 20.1
BV/Sh.INR 1431.7 1571.0 1831.1 Improved operating efficiency led to 180bp YoY expansion in EBITDA margin
Ratios to 22.6% (10-quarter high). The management retains its EBITDA margin
RoE (%) 35.6 38.4 39.6 guidance of 19%-21% in the medium term. We model 20-21% EBITDA
RoCE (%) 33.9 37.9 39.9
margin for FY25-27E.
Payout (%) 72.5 90.0 75.0
Valuations Recent launches of new SKUs in the women’s and kids' categories,
P/E (x) 87.8 74.3 61.8 supported by a dedicated sales team, are set to boost growth. Orissa facility
P/BV (x) 31.3 28.5 24.5 is expected to start operations from 4QFY25 and will cater to rising
EV/EBITDA (x) 57.1 50.1 42.0
Div. Yield (%) 0.8 1.0 1.0
demand.
The stock has underperformed massively for the last two years (down 15%)
Shareholding pattern (%) owing to weak volume growth. With volume growth pressure bottoming
As On Sep-24 Jun-24 Sep-23 out and benign input costs likely to lead to a better margin print, we expect
Promoter 44.3 45.0 45.1 the earnings cycle to pick up from hereon. We believe the valuation will
DII 29.5 28.1 23.6 remain rich, as we can find only a few consumer stocks with comfort on
FII 20.8 20.5 22.0
both growth and margin in the near term. We upgrade our rating from
Others 5.4 6.3 9.4
FII Includes depository receipts
Neutral to BUY with a revised TP of INR54,000, premised on 60x Mar’27E
EPS.
Improved growth print; volume up 6.7%
Beat on volume growth: Sales grew 11% YoY to INR12.5b (est. INR12.0b),
while demand remained subdued (but trend improved vs. 1Q). Sales volume
was up 6.7% YoY (2.6% in 1QFY25; 3.5% our est.) to 55.2m pieces. The
advancement in the festive season also partially supported growth in 2Q.
Festive demand was healthy, with improvement in secondary growth.
Network expansion to continue: Exclusive brand outlets (EBOs) are also a
key area, with the company aiming to increase EBOs from 150-180 annually
to around 1,550 by FY25. Technology upgrades, like the ARA system, are
enhancing distribution and inventory management, while athleisure is
emerging as a major growth area.
Margin: Gross margin expanded ~80bp YoY to 56.5% (est. 56.3%) and EBITDA
margin expanded 185bp YoY to 22.6% (est. 20.9%). The margin expansion was
led by stable input costs and improved operating efficiency. Employee expenses
were down 165bp, but other expenses were up 65bp YoY.
Double-digit growth in EBITDA/PBT/PAT: EBITDA grew 21% YoY to INR2.8b (est.
INR2.5b). PBT grew 31% YoY to INR2.6b (est. INR2.3b). Adj. PAT was up 30% YoY
at INR1.9b (est. INR1.7b).
In 1HFY25, net sales/EBITDA/APAT grew by 7%/11%/17%. In 2HFY25, we expect
net sales/EBITDA/APAT growth of 11%/17%/20%.
8 November 2024 2
Page Industries
8 November 2024 3
Page Industries
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1: Overall volumes up 6.7% YoY in 2QFY25 Exhibit 2: Sales grew 11% YoY to INR12.5b
Overall volume growth (%) Sales (INR b) Sales growth (%)
167.4
150
46.4
28.3
26.2
13.3
10.8
(13.2)
(8.4)
(8.4)
3.9
2.9
2.4
0.9
43
24
7 1 5 6 3 7
(11) (15) (12) (9)
10.8 11.9 11.1 13.4 12.3 12.0 9.6 12.3 11.3 12.3 9.9 12.8 12.5
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
3QFY24
4QFY24
1QFY25
2QFY25
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
3QFY24
4QFY24
1QFY25
2QFY25
Source: Company, MOFSL Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 3: Gross margin expanded ~80bp YoY to 56.5% Exhibit 4: EBITDA margin expanded ~180bp YoY to 22.6%
24.0
57.2
22.6
57.0
56.5
22.2
56.0
55.7
21.5
54.8
21.1
54.5
54.1
20.8
53.5
53.4
53.2
53.1
19.4
19.4
19.0
18.7
16.1
13.9
16.6
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
3QFY24
4QFY24
1QFY25
2QFY25
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
3QFY24
4QFY24
1QFY25
Source: Company, MOFSL Source: Company, MOFSL 2QFY25
Exhibit 5: EBITDA grew 21% YoY to INR2.8b in 2QFY25 Exhibit 6: APAT grew 30% YoY to INR2.0b in 2QFY25
EBITDA (INR b) EBITDA growth (%) PAT (INR b) PAT growth (%)
771 2.1
1.6
1.9 2.0
1.7 1.7
1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5
0.8
21 1.2
57 (2) 19 22 2 1.1
1791
41 11 2 (23) (50)
(29)
(59)
65
23
45
(20)
30
(24)
(7)
14
38
4
1
2.3 2.5 2.7 3.0 2.4 1.9 2.3 1.6 2.4 2.8
1.3 2.4 2.3
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
3QFY24
4QFY24
1QFY25
2QFY25
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY23
2QFY23
3QFY23
4QFY23
1QFY24
2QFY24
3QFY24
4QFY24
1QFY25
2QFY25
8 November 2024 4
Page Industries
Exhibit 7: We have increased our EPS estimates by 5%/3% for FY25/FY26 respectively
New Old Change (%)
(INRm) FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E
Sales 49,986 57,541 49,239 57,172 1.5 0.6
EBITDA 9,871 11,747 9,445 11,445 4.5 2.6
PAT 6,731 8,082 6,395 7,824 5.3 3.3
Source: Company, MOFSL
Jul-23
Apr-17
Apr-22
Jan-16
Jan-21
Oct-14
Oct-19
Oct-24
Apr-17
Apr-22
Oct-14
Jan-16
Oct-19
Jan-21
Oct-24
Jul-18
Jul-23
8 November 2024 5
Page Industries
8 November 2024 6
Page Industries
Ratios
Y/E March 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E
Basic (INR)
EPS 353.2 307.7 305.3 481.0 512.2 510.3 603.4 724.6 872.8
Cash EPS 381.0 362.7 361.8 539.7 582.2 591.7 691.4 831.9 992.9
BV/Share 694.8 735.1 793.3 976.0 1,229.2 1,431.7 1,571.0 1,831.1 2,144.4
DPS 344 161 250 300 260 370 464 464 559
Payout incldg DDT (%) 115.4 79.1 81.9 62.4 50.8 72.5 90.0 75.0 75.0
Valuation (x)
P/E 126.9 145.6 146.8 93.2 87.5 87.8 74.3 61.8 51.3
Cash P/E 117.6 123.5 123.9 83.0 77.0 75.7 64.8 53.9 45.1
EV/Sales 17.5 17.0 17.5 12.8 10.7 10.9 9.9 8.6 7.4
EV/EBITDA 81.1 94.0 94.3 63.4 58.4 57.1 50.1 42.0 35.2
P/BV 64.5 61.0 56.5 45.9 36.5 31.3 28.5 24.5 20.9
Dividend Yield (%) 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2
Return Ratios (%)
Asset Turn 3.3 3.0 2.8 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5
Leverage 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Net Margin 13.8 11.7 12.0 13.8 12.1 12.4 13.5 14.0 14.6
RoE 50.8 41.9 38.5 49.3 41.7 35.6 38.4 39.6 40.7
RoCE 45.6 39.7 36.1 50.7 40.5 33.9 37.9 39.9 41.0
RoIC 55.2 42.2 49.8 77.9 47.9 41.4 59.5 73.6 82.3
Working Capital Ratios
Asset Turnover (x) 3.2 3.2 2.8 3.5 3.2 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7
Debtor Days 17 12 14 14 12 12 14 16 16
Creditor Days 17 13 20 27 25 20 22 26 26
Inventory Days 84 91 82 72 99 110 80 70 70
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing
8 November 2024 7
Page Industries
NOTES
8 November 2024 8
Page Industries
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within following 30 days take
appropriate measures to make the recommendation consistent with the investment rating legend.
Disclosures:
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOFSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in
the business of providing Stock broking services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect of which are available on
www.motilaloswal.com. MOFSL (erstwhile Motilal Oswal Securities Limited - MOSL) is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National
Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) and National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) for
its stock broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL),NERL, COMRIS and CCRL and is member of
Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products and Insurance Regulatory & Development Authority of India (IRDA) as Corporate Agent for insurance products. Details of
associate entities of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. are available on the website at http://onlinereports.motilaloswal.com/Dormant/documents/Associate%20Details.pdf
Details of pending Enquiry Proceedings of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited are available on the website at https://galaxy.motilaloswal.com/ResearchAnalyst/PublishViewLitigation.aspx
MOFSL, it’s associates, Research Analyst or their relatives may have any financial interest in the subject company. MOFSL and/or its associates and/or Research Analyst or their relatives may have actual
beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report or date of the public appearance. MOFSL
and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may have any other potential conflict of interests at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of
public appearance, however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely
independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
• MOFSL and it’s associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report.
• Subject Company may have been a client of MOFSL or its associates during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
• Research Analyst may have served as director/officer/employee in the subject company.
• MOFSL and research analyst may engage in market making activity for the subject company.
MOFSL and its associate company(ies), and Research Analyst and their relatives from time to time may have:
a) a long or short position in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein.
(b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act
as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the
same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates
of MOFSL even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report.
Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not consider demat accounts
which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from clients which are not considered in above disclosures.
To enhance transparency, MOFSL has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. MOFSL
and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients of this report should be aware that MOFSL may have
a potential conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is,
or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
For U.S.
MOTILAL Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state laws in the
United States. In addition MOFSL is not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together with the 1934 Act, the "Acts), and
8 November 2024 9
Page Industries
under applicable state laws in the United States. Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any brokerage and investment services provided by MOFSL, including the products and
services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S. persons. This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act
and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any
investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to major institutional investors and will be engaged in only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption
from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOFSL has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities
International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within the provisions of this chaperoning agreement.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer,
MOSIPL, and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research
analyst account.
For Singapore
In Singapore, this report is being distributed by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Ltd (“MOCMSPL”) (Co. Reg. NO. 201129401Z) which is a holder of a capital markets services license and an
exempt financial adviser in Singapore. Persons in Singapore should contact MOCMSPL in respect of any matter arising from, or in connection with this report/publication/communication. This report is
distributed solely to persons who qualify as “Institutional Investors”, of which some of whom may consist of "accredited" institutional investors as defined in section 4A(1) of the Securities and Futures Act of
Singapore .Accordingly, if a Singapore person is not, or ceases to be, such an investor, they must immediately discontinue any use of this Report and inform MOCMSPL .
Disclaimer:
The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to
any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an
offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation
that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make
their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment
by any recipient. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in
this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not
be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, another derivative products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not
suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. The Disclosures
of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject
to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its
associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document.
They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as
a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that is already
available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed
therein. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or
in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction,
where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MOFSL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities
described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to
observe such restriction. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost
revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees
from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOFSL or any
of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 - 71934200 / 71934263; www.motilaloswal.com.
Correspondence Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad (West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 71881000. Details of Compliance Officer: Neeraj Agarwal,
Email Id: [email protected], Contact No.:022-40548085.
Registration details of group entities.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL): INZ000158836 (BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412 . AMFI:
ARN .: 146822. IRDA Corporate Agent – CA0579. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Insurance, Bond, NCDs and IPO products.
Customer having any query/feedback/ clarification may write to [email protected]. In case of grievances for any of the services rendered by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) write to
[email protected], for DP to [email protected].
8 November 2024 10