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Foresight in Organizations

Foresight in Organizations will acquaint the reader with various foresight methods
and tools, to show the reader how these methods are used, what the pitfalls are
and how the methods relate to each other. This innovative volume offers the
reader the ability to carry out a study of the future by him- or herself and apply
the results in a decision-­making strategy process.
The authors address the following methods: scenarios, trend analysis, the
Delphi method, quantitative trend extrapolation, technology assessment, back-
casting and roadmapping; the most relevant and popular methods that also cover
the range of approaches from predictive, via normative to explorative. Every
chapter also contains references to additional literature about the methods being
discussed.
This book is essential reading for researchers, academics and students in the areas
of community development, sociology of organizations, change management, social
entrepreneurship, sustainable development and participative planning.

Patrick van der Duin is Assistant Professor at Delft University of Technology,

Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, the Netherlands, and Associate
Professor Futures Research and Trendwatching at Fontys Academy for Creative
Industries, the Netherlands.
Routledge Advances in Management and Business Studies

1 Middle Managers in Europe 8 The Internationalization of

Yves Frédéric Livian and Small to Medium Enterprises
John G. Burgoyne The interstratos project
Edited by Rik Donckels, Antti Haahti
2 Marketing Apocalypse and Graham Hall
Eschatology, escapology and the
illusion of the end 9 Neo-­Industrial Organising
Edited by Stephen Brown, Jim Bell Renewal by action and knowledge
and David Carson formation in a project-­intensive
economy
3 Relationship Marketing in Rolf A. Lundin, Hans Wirdenius,
Professional Services Eskil Ekstedt and Anders Soderholm
A study of agency–client dynamics
in the advertising sector 10 Perspectives on Public
Aino Halinen Relations Research
Edited by Danny Moss, Dejan Vercic
4 Job Design and Technology and Gary Warnaby
Taylorism vs anti-­Taylorism
Hans D. Pruijt 11 Resources, Technology and
Strategy
5 Regulation and Organisations Edited by Nicolai J. Foss and
International perspectives Paul L. Robertson
Edited by Glenn Morgan and
Lars Engwall 12 Telecommunications
Regulation
6 Information Technology, Culture, chaos and
Organisations and People interdependence inside the
Transformations in the UK retail regulatory process
financial services sector Clare Hall, Colin Scott and
Jeff Watkins Christopher Hood

7 HRM, Technical Workers and 13 Rethinking Public Relations

the Multinational Corporation The spin and the substance
Patrick McGovern Kevin Moloney
14 Organisational Learning in the 25 Managing Technological
Automotive Sector Development
Penny West Hakan Hakansson and
Alexandra Waluszewski
15 Marketing, Morality and the
Natural Environment 26 Human Resource Management
Andrew Crane and Occupational Health and
Safety
16 The Management of Intangibles Carol Boyd
The organization’s most valuable
assets 27 Business, Government and
A. Bounfour Sustainable Development
Gerard Keijzers
17 Strategy Talk
A critique of the discourse of 28 Strategic Management and
strategic management Online Selling
Pete Thomas Creating competitive advantage
with intangible web goods
18 Power and Influence in the Susanne Royer
Boardroom
James Kelly and John Gennard 29 Female Entrepreneurship
Implications for education, training
19 Public Private Partnerships and policy
Theory and practice in Edited by Nancy M. Carter,
international perspective Colette Henry, Barra Ó. Cinnéide
Stephen Osborne and Kate Johnston

20 Work and Unseen Chronic 30 Managerial Competence

Illness within the Hospitality and
Silent voices Tourism Service Industries
Margaret Vickers Global cultural contextual analysis
John Saee
21 Measuring Business Excellence
Gopal K. Kanji 31 Innovation Diffusion in the
New Economy
22 Innovation as Strategic The tacit component
Reflexivity Barbara Jones and Bob Miller
Edited by Jon Sundbo and
Lars Fuglsang 32 Technological Communities
and Networks
23 The Foundations of International, national and regional
Management Knowledge perspectives
Edited by Paul Jeffcutt Dimitris G. Assimakopoulos

24 Gender and the Public Sector 33 Narrating the Management

Professionals and managerial change Guru
Edited by Jim Barry, Mike Dent and In search of Tom Peters
Maggie O’Neill David Collins
34 Development on the Ground 44 Global Advertising, Attitudes,
Clusters, networks and regions in and Audiences
emerging economies Tony Wilson
Edited by Allen J. Scott and
Gioacchino Garofoli 45 Challenges and Controversies
in Management Research
35 Reconfiguring Public Relations Edited by Catherine Cassell and
Ecology, equity, and enterprise Bill Lee
David McKie and Debashish Munshi
46 Economy, Work, and
36 The Pricing and Revenue Education
Management of Services Critical connections
A strategic approach Catherine Casey
Irene C. L. Ng
47 Regulatory Governance and
Risk Management
37 Critical Representations of
Occupational health and safety in
Work and Organization in
the coal mining industry
Popular Culture
Binglin Yang
Carl Rhodes and Robert Westwood
48 Risk Management and
38 Intellectual Capital and Corporate Governance
Knowledge Management Edited by Abolhassan Jalilvand and
Strategic management of A.G. Malliaris
knowledge resources
Federica Ricceri 49 Careers in Creative Industries
Chris Mathieu
39 Flagship Marketing
Concepts and places 50 Marketing without Advertising
Edited by Tony Kent and Reva Brown Brand preference and consumer
choice in Cuba
40 Managing Project Ending Joseph Scarpaci and Emilio Morales
Virpi Havila and Asta Salmi
51 Pioneers in Marketing
41 AIDS and Business A collection of biographical essays
Saskia Faulk and Jean-­Claude Usunier D. G. Brian Jones

42 The Evaluation of 52 Mergers and Acquisitions

Transportation Investment The critical role of stakeholders
Projects Edited by Helén Anderson,
Joseph Berechman Virpi Havila and Fredrik Nilsson

43 Urban Regeneration 53 Management in Africa

Management Macro and micro perspectives
International perspectives Edited by Terri R. Lituchy,
Edited by John Diamond, Joyce Liddle, Betty Jane Punnett and
Alan Southern and Philip Osei Bill Buenar Puplampu
54 Organizations and Working 59 Cross-­Border Mergers and
Time Standards Acquisitions
A comparison of negotiations in UK dimensions
Europe Moshfique Uddin and
Jens Thoemmes Agyenim Boateng

55 Recession at Work
60 Monitoring Business
HRM in the Irish crisis
Performance
William K. Roche, Paul Teague,
Models, methods, and tools
Anne Coughlan and Majella Fahy
Per Lind
56 Innovative Business School
Teaching 61 Managerial Flow
Engaging the millennial generation Veronica Vecchi, Ben Farr-­Wharton,
Edited by Elaine Doyle, Rodney Farr-­Wharton, and
Patrick Buckley and Conor Carroll Manuela Brusoni

57 Decision Making Groups and

62 Management, Society, and the
Teams
Informal Economy
An information exchange
Edited by Paul C. Godfrey
perspective
Steven D. Silver
63 Foresight in Organizations
58 Research Methods for Human Methods and tools
Resource Management Edited by Patrick van der Duin
Edited by Karin Sanders,
Julie A. Cogin, and
Hugh T.J. Bainbridge
This page intentionally left blank
Foresight in Organizations
Methods and Tools

Edited by
Patrick van der Duin
First published 2016
by Routledge
711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017
and by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2016 Patrick van der Duin
The right of Patrick van der Duin to be identified as author of this work
has been asserted by him in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the
Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or
utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now
known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in
any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing
from the publishers.
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or
registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation
without intent to infringe.
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Foresight in organizations : methods and tools / edited by Patrick van der Duin.
pages cm. – (Routledge advances in management and business studies)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-138-84491-9 (hardback) – ISBN 978-1-315-72851-3
(ebook) 1. Business forecasting. 2. Business planning. I. Duin, Patrick
van der, editor.
HD30.27.F68955 2016
658.4'032–dc23 2015027901

ISBN: 978-1-138-84491-9 (hbk)

ISBN: 978-1-315-72851-3 (ebk)
Typeset in Bembo
by Wearset Ltd, Boldon, Tyne and Wear
Contents

List of Figures xi
List of Tables xiv
Notes on Contributors xv

1 Introduction 1
P atrick v an der D uin

2 Developing Scenarios 11
J an N ekkers

3 Trend Analysis 40
T essa  C ramer , P atrick  v an der  D uin and
C hristianne  H eselmans

4 The Delphi Method 59

Vincent  M archau and E rik  v an de  L inde

5 Technological Forecasting 80
S cott  W . C unningham and J an  H . K wakkel

6 Technology Assessment 109

K arel M ulder

7 Backcasting 125
J aco Q uist

8 Roadmapping 145
B en R ö mgens

9 Interviews 169
J ohan den H artog
x   Contents
10 Workshops 175
H enk - ­J an v an A lphen

11 The Future Recycled: Meta-­analysis for Foresight 180

P atrick  v an der  D uin and S usan  v an  ‘ t  K looster

12 The Acceleration Method 185

B ram C astelein

13 Creativity in Foresight: Seven Exercises 190

S askia B ol

14 Foresight and Creativity 200

R en é H artman

15 Stakeholder Analysis 208

E efje C uppen

16 Causal Loop Diagramming 215

K im v an O orschot

17 Beyond Visualization: Experiencing the Future 223

N ik B aerten

Index 238
Figures

1.1 The past, present and future interconnected in a cyclical way 3

1.2 From approach to the future, via foresight method and study,
to decision or action 5
1.3 Foresight methods on the continuum from exploring to
predicting 6
2.1 Kinds of scenarios 13
2.2 Go/no-­go checklist 17
2.3 Contextual and transactional environment 19
2.4 Impact of technological innovation 20
2.5 Exponential development 21
2.6 Bifurcations 21
2.7 Scenario structures: Mont Fleur scenarios 23
2.8 Causal schematics 24
2.9 Scenario cross 25
2.10 Impact ranking 26
2.11 Impact and uncertainty matrix 27
2.12 Core uncertainties 28
2.13 Morphological field 29
2.14 Scenarios in a morphological field 30
2.15 From scenario cross to morphological field 30
2.16 Implication tree 31
2.17 Monitor mechanism 36
3.1 The future navigator 45
3.2 The trend pentagram 51
3.3 The contextual and transactional environment of an
organization 55
3.4 The place of the future in strategic thinking 56
4.1 Consensus of panel on scientific breakthroughs 68
4.2 Basic driver support systems toward automated driving 70
5.1 A plot of broadband penetration in the Netherlands 90
5.2 Raw data entered on the worksheet 91
5.3 Labeled parameter estimates for a Bass diffusion model 92
5.4 Named column of data 93
5.5 Bass diffusion equations 94
xii   Figures
5.6 Penetration of broadband, naive estimate 95
5.7 Spreadsheet after introduction of error column 97
5.8 View and manage Microsoft Office Add-­ins 98
5.9 Manage Microsoft Add-­ins 99
5.10 The Solver window 100
5.11 Penetration of broadband, best point forecast 101
5.12 Probabilistic forecast of total market penetration 105
5.13 Robustness analysis of future growth 106
7.1 Three types of futures studies 126
7.2 Backcasting: key concept and characteristics 129
7.3 A methodological framework for participatory backcasting 130
7.4 Drawing of the ICS vision 135
8.1 The roadmap as multiple layer diagram 146
8.2 The roadmap as action program 147
8.3 T-­plan approach for industry, organization and issue
roadmaps 148
8.4 Pathways 152
8.5 Product roadmap, Carpet 154
8.6 Technology roadmap, photo voltage 155
8.7 Industry roadmap, plastic and polymer composites for
automotive markets 155
8.8 The roadmap process step by step 156
8.9 Visualization of a customer profile 158
8.10 New carpet concepts 159
8.11 Example, recipe book waste water roadmap 160
8.12 Visualization roadmap waste water in an urban environment 164
11.1 Clustering of future visions 183
13.1 The seven exercises in relation to the creative process 191
13.2 Looking back from the future like Snow White 192
13.3 Influence of developments in the transactional environment 193
13.4 Implication tree 195
13.5 Examples of places to visit to expose yourself to random
stimuli 196
13.6 Cycle of the thinking styles 197
13.7 Roundel housing system for chickens, visualized by JAM
visual thinking 198
14.1 Star Wars pod-­racer 200
14.2 GM EN V 201
14.3 The left brain and the right brain 202
14.4 Baby genius 203
14.5 Creative process: diverging–converging 205
14.6 GPS as a training module 206
14.7 Filling in business model canvas 207
16.1 Feedback perspective 216
16.2 Example of the structure and behavior of a positive
(reinforcing) loop 217
 Figures   xiii
16.3 Example of the structure and behavior of a negative (balancing)
loop 218
16.4 Causal loop diagram of the restaurant example 219
17.1 Front page from a fictional magazine from the future 227
17.2 Pair of images used to show the present–future contrast
through image manipulation 229
17.3 Neighborhood smart-­grid energy system drawn across
photograph of existing situation 230
17.4 Fictional advertisement for a product/service enabling one to
question construction materials about their histories, their
lifecycle so far 231
17.5 Example of a sketch-­based scenario-­visualization 232
17.6 Still shot from lo-­fi prototyping activity during a workshop 233
17.7 Booth of fictional startup company Pedras & Sons showcasing its
services during the Biennale Interieur Kortrijk 2014 trade fair 235
17.8 Two simple storyboards depicting medical concepts inspired by
a future scenario 236
Tables

2.1 Robustness scores 35

4.1 Panel on scientific breakthroughs, second round results 67
4.2 Panel results 67
4.3 Response with respect to geographical background and
affiliation 72
4.4 Expertise of response group with respect to different systems 72
4.5 Expected period of market introduction of each system 73
5.1 Problématiques and the analysis of technology 84
5.2 Broadband penetration in the Netherlands 90
5.3 Alternate model runs of Solver non-­linear regression 99
5.4 Sample Bass model parameters 102
5.5 Monte Carlo simulation of potential models 103
5.6 Twenty-­five likely model scenarios 104
7.1 The four-­level food production and consumption system as
defined for SCE  133
7.2 Degrees of participation 137
7.3 Overall scheme for backcasting 140
8.1 Roadmaps in different shapes and sizes 153
8.2 Summary of vision waste water as production facility of raw
materials 161
8.3 Requirements: carpet industry 162
8.4 Technology assessment scheme: meat preservation 163
8.5 Overview of roadmap process: activities and results 165
13.1 Creative exercise: the Snow White question 192
13.2 Creative exercise: associating on fields in the environment 193
13.3 Creative exercise: brainstorming and use of the “superhero”
analogy 194
13.4 Creative exercise: mapping consequences of wildcards 195
13.5 Creative exercise: using random stimulation 196
13.6 Creative exercise: Walt Disney method 197
13.7 Creative exercise: visualizing the future 198
15.1 Power-­interests matrix 211
Contributors

Henk-­Jan van Alphen has extensive experience in futures studies and has
worked as an advisor for organizations in both the public and private sectors.
He currently works as a researcher at KWR Watercycle Research Institute
where he focuses on the future of water management in Europe. He is trained
as a political scientist at the Free University Amsterdam and the University of
North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Nik Baerten is a knowledge engineer by training. For several years he was active
as a multidisciplinary researcher at the Digital Culture department of the Maas-
tricht McLuhan Institute (NL), where he blended insights across disciplines
such as history, new media, philosophy, intelligent systems, architecture,
organic systems, interaction design. In 2004 he co-­founded Pantopicon, a
studio for foresight and design, based in Antwerp (Belgium), which crafts pro-
vocative futures in order to stimulate debate regarding tomorrow’s challenges
and opportunities. It supports both public and private organizations in
exploring the long term, in building visions and strategies, in designing con-
cepts for new products, services and experiences. As such it assists in the
understanding and anticipation of systemic change. Besides a frequent keynote
speaker/moderator on all things futures, he also lectures in foresight and
design, as well as its relation to social innovation, at the LUCA School of Arts
and other academic institutions internationally.

Saskia Bol studied Visual Marketing as well as Policy, Communication and

Organizational Management. She worked at Futureconsult on various
scenario-­projects for governments, non-­profit organizations and companies.
She is specialized in using future scenarios for concept development. She gave
lectures on Future Studies at the Design Academy in Eindhoven and she wrote
a study booklet on creativity for students in Multimedia Design. At present
she teaches Design Thinking at the Design Academy in Eindhoven. She is also
developing a learning tool for future thinking in companies.

Bram Castelein followed a pedagogical study for teacher at the Pedagogical

Academy Mariahoeve in The Hague, the Netherlands. He also studied organ-
izational sociology at the Erasmus University in Rotterdam. In the period
1980 to 1987 he was a teacher/Deputy Director at the Mgr. Bekkersschool in
xvi   Contributors
Delft. From 1987 until 1998 he worked as a consultant/project manager at
Capgemini in the field of information technology. Since 1998 he has worked
at the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, first as information manager
and later as a senior consultant and team leader in the learning and develop-
ment institute of the Ministry. At the time he launched the Future Centre
concept. Today he focuses on achieving business impact through the use of
dedicated learning interventions. As a facilitator he has extensive experience in
applying the acceleration method.
Tessa Cramer (1985) is lecturer in futures studies, research and sociology at
Fontys Academy for Creative Industries. Simultaneously she works on a PhD
study at Maastricht University on the professionalization of futures work. She
is board member of the Dutch Future Society. Previous work includes
research for trend forecasting agencies and contributions for trend magazine
Second Sight.
Scott W. Cunningham is an Associate Professor of Policy Analysis at the Delft
University of Technology. He is currently working on the social, political and
economic impacts of Big Data, as part of the BYTE Project, a European
Commission funded project. He is the European Associate Editor for the
journal Technological Forecasting and Social Change, and is the co-­author of two
books on technological forecasting and tech mining.
Eefje Cuppen is Assistant Professor at the Department of Multi Actor Systems in
the Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management of TU Delft. Her
research focuses on participatory foresight, public engagement with (energy)
technology, responsible innovation and participatory governance. She received
her Master’s degree in Innovation Sciences from Eindhoven University of
Technology (2004). She completed her dissertation at VU University Amster-
dam on methodology for stakeholder participation in environmental issues in
January 2010.
Patrick van der Duin is Assistant Professor, Foresight and Innovation Manage-
ment at Delft University of Technology and Associate Professor Futures
Research and Trendwatching at Fontys University of Applied Sciences,
Academy for Creative Industries. He has published in journals such as Futures,
Foresight, Technological Forecasting and Social Change and the Journal of Futures
Studies. He studied macro-­economics at the University of Amsterdam and for-
merly worked as a futurist at KPN Research.
René Hartman holds a Master’s degree in Industrial Design Engineering from
Delft University, worked in industry (General Electric Plastics, Ericsson), at
the Free University Amsterdam (setting up spin-­off companies) and consul-
tancy (Innovation Centres) before he started his own consultancy company in
2004. He is co-­founder of Innovatiewerkplaats.nl and trained innovation
teams from, e.g., DAF trucks, VGZ insurance company and Microsoft Europe.
He recently worked for AB Inbev, Alpro, Arcadis, Bridgestone, CIIC Sydney,
City of Amsterdam/Arnhem/Leiden/Rotterdam, DAF Trucks, Essent, Inalfa
 Contributors   xvii
Sunroofs, Janssen Pharma, Chambre of Commerce/Inretail, Microsoft,
National Police, Eurosonic Festival, Philips, Rabobank, Sanoma Publishers,
Schiphol Airport, Studio 100, Umicore and the Universities of Antwerp and
Maastricht.
Johan den Hartog is a drama teacher and has extended experience as trainer of
social skills, team coach, actor and stage director. He focuses on his work with
students, actors and trainees on behavioral dimensions of face to face commu-
nication. He has worked with students, starting at about 18 years of age, PhDs,
amateur and semi-­professional actors. He taught interviewing techniques and
conversational skills that are useful to the field of scientific research and has
lectured a lot on negotiation skills. During his professional life he has worked
as a freelance trainer, stage director and actor, and as lecturer (at Delft Univer-
sity of Technology). He has directed many performances of dramatic plays,
ranging from Shakespeare to Pinter to Handke. In 2013 he commenced his
fourth career in life, this time as an actor, and in 2015 he started writing his
first play for the stage.
Christianne Heselmans studied economic-­social history at the Radboud Uni-
versity and graduated on the forming of the welfare state after World War II.
After ten years of working in the creative industries she is now lecturer in sus-
tainable futures, concepting and service design thinking at International Life-
style Studies at the Fontys Academy for Creative Industries. As member of the
lectureship Futures Research and Trendwatching her research interest is in
combining trend analysis with grand societal challenges and in prototyping the
future. She is co-­author of Business in a Changing World (2008), a textbook for
higher education.
Susan van ‘t Klooster was trained as a cultural scientist at Maastricht Univer-
sity. In 2002 she became a PhD student at the Science, Technology and
Society Research Unit at Maastricht University. In her thesis (“Future telling:
ambition and practice”) she describes and analyzes several pitfalls related to
foresight and the production of future knowledge in particular (defended in
2008). After her PhD research, she worked as a researcher at the Institute for
Environmental Studies (IVM) at the VU University in Amsterdam. She was
involved as a scenario expert and methodologist in several multi-­institute pro-
jects dealing with foresight methodology, the role of knowledge and expertise
in policy processes, and public participation in knowledge production/policy
making. Since 2011, she has worked as a freelance advisor at SAVIA (www.
savia.nl). She offers research and advice in the field of foresight and strategic
decision-­making.
Jan H. Kwakkel is an Assistant Professor of Policy Analysis at Delft University
of Technology. His current research focuses on the design of adaptive policies
and plans for coping with the expected future impacts of climate change. His
main interest is in model-­based approaches for scenario development and
robust decision-­making. He has also published multiple papers on text mining
and bibliometrics.
xviii   Contributors
Erik van de Linde (Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences) studied
biophysics at the State Universities of Groningen and Utrecht. He worked as a
researcher at the Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research
TNO, was attaché for Science and Technology at the Netherlands Royal
Embassy in Washington, DC, and was Director at the Netherlands Study
Center for Technology Trends STT. He also worked at the international con-
sultancy company RAND Europe, at the Technology Foundation STW (part
of the National Science Foundation), and at Leiden University. He is currently
head of the Policy Advice Division of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts
and Sciences.
Vincent Marchau (Radboud University Nijmegen (RU) – Institute for Man-
agement Research (IMR)) holds a chair on Uncertainty and Adaptivity of
Societal Systems. This chair is supported by the Netherlands Study Centre for
Technology Trends (STT). He received a PhD from TU Delft in 2000 for his
research on technology assessment in transport policy-­making. He is also Man-
aging Director of the Dutch Research School for Transport, Infrastructure and
Logistics (TRAIL), with 100 PhD students and 50 staff members across six
Dutch universities. His research focuses on long-­term planning under uncer-
tainty in transportation, logistics, spatial planning, energy, water and security.
Karel Mulder works at Delft University of Technology. He studied Physics and
Philosophy of Science and Technology, and obtained a PhD in Business
Administration in 1992. He was president of the Technology and Society
Department of the Dutch Royal Institute of Engineers from 1994 to 1999. He
has been responsible for setting up education in Technology and Sustainable
Development in Delft and was the initiator of the Engineering Education in
Sustainable Development (EESD) Conferences. He teaches in the areas of
innovation and sustainable development. His current research interests are
especially focused upon innovation in urban infrastructures and urban symbio-
sis. He published two books on sustainable development and technology, and
dozens of papers and book chapters.
Jan Nekkers is Founder and CEO of Futureconsult, an Amsterdam-­based con-
sultancy company specialized in future scenarios. Futureconsult facilitates
organizations, firms and governments to think about their future in a struc-
tured and meaningful way. He studied political science at the University of
Nijmegen and the University of Amsterdam. He worked as a researcher at
Leiden University, as a staff member at the Wiardi Beckman Foundation, as a
policy advisor at the Dutch Labour Party and as organizational consultant. He
facilitated scenario projects with clients ranging from Dutch companies, multi-
nationals, local and national governments and NGOs. In 2007 his bestselling
practical handbook about scenario planning Wijzer In De Toekomst (Futurewise)
was published. He gives lectures and masterclasses on scenario planning for
various audiences. Based on more than 20 years of experience in scenario
planning, he is a well-­known consultant regarding long-­term strategical issues
for business and governmental organizations.
 Contributors   xix
Kim van Oorschot is an Associate Professor of Project Management and System
Dynamics in the Department of Leadership and Organizational Behaviour at
the BI Norwegian Business School. Her current research focuses on decision-­
making, trade-­offs and tipping points in dynamically complex settings, like
new product development (NPD) projects. Before working at BI, she was an
Assistant Professor at the Eindhoven University of Technology (the Nether-
lands), in the School of Industrial Engineering. Before that, she was a Post-­
Doc at Tilburg University at the Information Management Department and a
research fellow at INSEAD, France. From 2002 until 2006 (after finishing her
PhD project), she was a consultant at Minase Consulting BV, working for
large international companies like ASML, DSM, KPN, NXP and Stork
Fokker on projects aimed at improving business processes. She has published
in such journals as Academy of Management Journal, Journal of Management Studies,
Production and Operations Management, Journal of Product Innovation Management,
Journal of the Operational Research Society and International Journal of Operations
and Production Management.
Jaco Quist is an Assistant Professor on Sustainable Innovation at the Energy and
Industry section of the faculty of Technology, Policy, Management, Delft
University of Technology. His research and teaching focuses on backcasting
and transition management, sustainable innovation, sustainability transitions
and technology assessment. He has completed a dissertation on participatory
backcasting that was published by Eburon Publishers in 2007 as Backcasting for
a Sustainable Future: The Impact after 10 Years (see www.eburon.nl or reposi-
tory.tudelft.nl). This is the first book that has reported on a systematic evalu-
ation of the follow-­up and spin-­off of backcasting experiments ten years after
completion. He (co)edited special issues on “Backcasting for Sustainability”
(Technological Forecasting and Social Change), “Knowledge Collaboration and
Learning for Sustainable Innovation” ( Joournal of Cleaner Production, 2013) and
“Sustainable Innovation and Business Models” ( Journal of Cleaner Production,
2013).
Ben Römgens has a Master’s degree in business economics and in change man-
agement. Ben is principal consultant future planning at DNV GL with over 20
years of experience in scenario, roadmap and strategy development for gov-
ernment, industry and nonprofit organizations in Europe. As a trainer and
change manager he also implemented scenario and roadmap development in
the strategic and business development processes of several companies.
This page intentionally left blank
1 Introduction
Patrick van der Duin

Introduction
This book is meant for everyone who is interested in looking at the future. For
everyone who thinks the future is important, perhaps even more important than
the past. And many people are involved with the future. Whether you are a
student, a civil servant at a government ministry or in a small municipality, a pol-
itician, a techno-­starter or an innovation manager at a large company, for many
people the future is an important playing field. This book is meant to familiarize
the reader with a number of different methods that can be used to look at the
future, and the tools that can be employed in doing so. And although, strictly
speaking, this book is not a handbook, we do hope that, after reading this book,
the reader is able to carry out a study of the future independently and to apply
the results in the decisions being made. And if there are good reasons to out-
source the futures study, this book is meant to provide enough information to
make it possible to assess the quality and usefulness of the results of such an out-
sourced study.
In light of the scope of foresight, this book cannot possibly include every single
method. And because the future keeps changing, new methods will doubtlessly be
developed in years to come. However, we are of the opinion that we provide a
good sample of the main methods available. A number of chapters also offer reading
tips for those who want to know more about the method in question.
Looking at the future has a long history and, as mentioned above, almost eve-
rybody is involved with the future. Having said that, when you introduce your-
self as a foresight professional or futurologist, you are often met with a suppressed
snigger and a raised eyebrow. It would seem that people see looking at the future
as a precarious undertaking that is reserved for present-­day Don Quixotes. How
can anyone take that seriously? But the raised eyebrow has to be taken seriously,
because it is often followed by claims that “the future does not exist” and “it is
impossible to predict the future.” Many foresight professionals agree with the
former statement. The future does indeed not exist, because each person imagines
and interprets the future differently. What may fill some people with hopeful
optimism, may be a deeply depressing prospect to others. While some people
focus on technological developments, others look at demographic shifts. Inciden-
tally, the claim that the future does not exist as an entity is incorrect (Van der
2   P. van der Duin
Duin, 2014). What that means is that the future may not exist as a “physical
entity” (in the way that a car does), it does exist as a “social construct.” The mere
fact that people think about the future and, in doing so, give direction to their
decisions and actions in the present, makes the future real and relevant. And even
if the prediction of the future is incorrect (which is often the case with predic-
tions), it can still affect the actual future situation. To some extent, this is com-
parable to when people used to believe that the Earth was flat and were
consequently afraid to venture too far out to sea, because they were scared they
would fall off the edge of the world. . . . So what is not real has an effect on
reality, in the same way that what does not yet exist has an effect on what already
does exist. Or, to quote the sociologist W.I. Thomas: “If men define things as
real, they are real in their consequences.” The future as a “social construct” is an
important explanatory factor for the behavior of people and organizations and in
that area competes with history in terms of what has the greatest effect on the
present. Someone who is obsessed with and ascribes predictive powers to history
will not care very much about the future. But someone who suspects that tomor-
row and the day after may be different from yesterday and today, will look for
inspiration in the future.
It appears that, in recent years, more and more people are interested in the
future. Abrupt social changes and new disruptive technologies have made the
future a lot more interesting and relevant again. And even in science, there is an
increasing appreciation for knowledge about the future, to the extent that there
seems to be a futuristic change from “past-­oriented sciences towards primarily
future-­oriented ones” (Poli, 2014, p. 15), and the knowledge about the future is
even necessary for survival and reproduction (Seligman et al., 2013, p. 120). And
we may assume that this knowledge about the future benefits from more know-
ledge about methods of foresight.

Approaches to the Future

The future can be approached in different ways. Different time preferences are
reflected in three different approaches to the future: predictive, explorative and
normative (Vergragt and Quist, 2011; Börjeson et al., 2006). The predictive
approach to the future leans heavily on historical data and projects historical pat-
terns onto the future, while the explorative approach assumes that the future is not
an automatic continuation of the past and focuses more on what could happen in
the future. The normative approach to the future is dissatisfied with the current
state of affairs and sees the future above all as a possibility to fix things.
These three approaches are not separate entities, but are connected cyclically
(see Figure 1.1). This cyclical loop can start in the past, with, for instance, predic-
tions about the future being based on the past (forward loop). As mentioned above,
the idea people have about the future then affects their thoughts and actions in
the present. On the basis of that, they often look at the past differently as well
(backward loop). But the cyclical loop can also start in the future. Based on a fore-
sight study, people’s thoughts and decisions in the present change (backward loop),
after which it is possible that the past is seen in a different light. The normative
 Introduction   3

Past Present Future

Figure 1.1 The past, present and future interconnected in a cyclical way.

approach to the future above all relates to the cyclical loop (backward and forward)
between the present and the future, whereby the proposed future leads to a
variety of possible roadmaps or transition trajectories that start in the present and
envisage the realization of the proposed future.
An example to illustrate the cyclical interaction between past, present and future is the
emergence of social media like Facebook and Twitter, which can be seen as a con-
tinuation of a historical pattern, with communication becoming ever more interactive
and individual. Based on that, one can think about possible future forms of (social)
media. For instance, the trend called “the Internet of things” means that not only do
people send tweets, but that “objects” (like cars or copy machines) also send tweets
about their maintenance status or about data they need to function properly. This
image of the future in turn has an impact on the present, because businesses have to
think about how to incorporate these future functionalities in their existing innova-
tion processes. Finally, the image of the future also has an impact on how people look
at the history of media, not so much in the sense that modern media show us how
limited media were in the past, but above all in light of the fact that the highly net-
worked nature of the new media offers an interesting perspective for looking at the
history of media. For instance, traditional media (radio, TV, newspapers) are consider-
ably less network-­oriented and based primarily on broadcasting. This way, the past,
present and future are connected cyclically and thereby inextricably.
The aim of connecting the past, present and future like this is to show that the
predictive, explorative and normative approaches are both separate approaches
and can be connected. Having said that, the modern history of looking at the
future (say, after World War II) shows a shift away from the predictive toward
the explorative and the normative.
The predictive and explorative approaches tell us something about how people
can approach the future and what value they attach to the extent to which “the”
past is seen as shaping “the” future. These two approaches are the best known
approaches, but they are complemented by the normative approach, which is not
based on what the future looks like or may look like, but what one wants the
future to look like. What it has in common with the explorative approach is that
4   P. van der Duin
there is a broad variety of possible futures. Whereas, in the case of an explorative
approach, there can be many imaginable futures, in the case of the normative
approach, there are many imaginable futures that one wants to realize. As a result,
the difference between the two approaches is that the explorative approach has no
value judgment about the quality or positivity or negativity of the future vision,
while the normative approach results in a predominantly positive outcome. After
all, it is a future that one desires, which means that it is normative. That also
establishes the link to the predictive approach, because that also has but one
future. Again, the normative approach yields a positive or desirable result, while
that is not necessarily the case with the predictive approach. However, an
important difference between, on the one hand, the explorative and the predictive
approach and, on the other hand, the normative approach, is that the first two
approaches are usually future visions of the environment of the subject (in most
cases an organization), while the normative approach says something about the
desired state of the subject itself. This leads to (yet) another difference, namely
with regard to the decision that is made on the basis of the foresight study. In the
case of the explorative approach, different decisions or strategies are linked to dif-
ferent future visions. In the case of the predictive approach, it is very difficult to
establish a link between the future vision and a possible decision, because the pre-
dicted future is fixed and can no longer be influenced. And in the case of the
normative approach, there are various possible decisions or strategies, but they all
have to lead to the same future vision: all roads lead to Rome. As such, the norm-
ative approach can also be seen as a mix of the explorative and predictive
approaches: the singular future vision is predictive in nature and the various ways
in which it can be realized matches the explorative approach.

Foresight Methods
An approach to the future is no more than an approach unless it is worked out
further. Between an approach and a study of the future, and the decision or
action that follows, there is a no-­man’s land that needs to be worked out in
greater detail. Between the approach to the future and the eventual futures study,
there are various methods of foresight. It is the foresight method that makes the
approach to the future concrete. The predictive approach is accompanied by a
predictive method, the explorative approach is accompanied by an explorative
method and the normative approach is accompanied by a normative method.
Figure 1.2 shows how the approach to the future leads to the choice of a fore-
sight method, which then results in a futures study, on the basis of which a deci-
sion is made or action is taken. This path does not have to be linear in nature. It
is quite possible that, on the basis of the preliminary results of a futures study,
additional research is necessary using a different foresight method or a foresight
method that is used in a somewhat different form. It is also possible to decide in
advance what type of decision or action is needed. For example, if a company
wants to decide in which technology it should invest, it makes more sense to use
an explorative approach and method than to use the road-­mapping method in
which one more or less knows what the intended point in the future is.
 Introduction   5

Approach to Foresight Foresight Decision or

the future method study action

Figure 1.2 From approach to the future, via foresight method and study, to decision or action.

Determining which approach is the right one is not all that easy. In fact, a
futures study is needed to determine which approach to the future to use!
After all, the assumption is that the future is so uncertain that an explorative
approach is needed, is in itself a prediction, as is the notion that the future is
relatively certain, which means that a predictive approach can be used. To
determine which approach is valid requires a kind of pre-­foresight or metafore-
sight. One way to determine which approach is useful is to determine the time
horizon. The more distant the future under examination is, the more sense it
makes to explore the future. In the shorter term, it is possible to make unequi-
vocal statements about the future, but, in the longer term, there is too much
uncertainty and it is better to include various possible futures. I think that the
normative approach lies somewhere in between, because the time horizon lies
also somewhere in between: a longer time horizon does not match the predic-
tive side of the normative approach, while a shorter time horizon does not
provide enough time to realize the (challenging) normative vision of the
future.
In this book, we describe seven foresight methods:

1 Scenarios
2 Delphi method
3 Trend analysis
4 Technology forecasting: quantitative trend extrapolation
5 Technology assessment
6 Backcasting
7 Roadmapping.

These seven methods can be linked to the three approaches to the future: predic-
tive, explorative and normative (see Figure 1.3). The scenario method, for
example, is meant to explore the future by setting up different possible futures,
while technology forecasting can be used to predict the (technological) future,
and backcasting and roadmapping are normative in nature.
It is important to emphasize that one cannot argue that one foresight method
is better than another, because every method has a more or less different
objective. The scenario method is designed to provide different images of the
future and to give an organization insight into developments and events it had
not previously considered but that can be very relevant to its organization and
strategy. In the case of technology forecasting, and in particular quantitative trend
analysis, the aim is not to identify multiple possible images of the future, but to
predict the course of a technological development.
6   P. van der Duin

Trend
Delphi
analysis
Predictive Explorative

Technology
Scenarios
forecasting

Technology
assessment

Roadmapping Normative Backcasting

Figure 1.3 Foresight methods on the continuum from exploring to predicting.

The criteria for the application of foresight methods vary on the basis of the
type of method, which means that, when selecting a method, it is important to
keep in mind what the aim of the futures study is. Scenarios are suitable for
“expanding” thought patterns, while technology forecasting is suitable for gaining
insight into the development of a new technology. As such, there is no one size
fits all, but there is a contingency principle. That is to say that the best method has
to be chosen depending on the situation. In this context, the term situation refers
to the goal and application of the futures study, the available data, the type of
organization and sector, the specific questions that need to be answered, etc. So
the success of a method not only depends on its actual application, but also on
the question whether or not the method is suitable to the specific situation.
The foresight methods listed above have been chosen because they are the
methods that are being used most frequently, although there are, of course, some
similarities and even overlap. As far as their popularity is concerned, the scenario
method has the best score. A study conducted in 2009 into the use of foresight
studies by Dutch government ministries revealed that virtually all the respondents
were familiar with the scenario method (Van der Duin et al., 2009). Another
well-­known method is the Delphi method, which is often used to consult large
groups of experts regarding future developments. Roadmapping is a method that
is often used by business, and in particular technological businesses, wanting to
know how they can realize a future technological application. Immediately after
World War II, when there was still considerable faith in the ability of technology
to solve socio-­economic problems, technology forecasting was a very popular
method, and it is still used a lot to make decisions about new technologies. Tech-
nology assessment can be seen as a response to technology forecasting, after it
became clear that assessing potential social consequences of the development and
implementation of new technology is not entirely unimportant. In recent years,
technology assessment has gained in popularity, thanks to the introduction of the
concept of “responsible innovation” by the European Union, which is in fact a
revamped version of technology assessment. In recent years, backcasting has
become considerably more popular in identifying sustainable goals in the future
 Introduction   7
and how to reach them. Trend analysis, finally, has always been popular, for the
simple reason that mapping future developments is always useful for organizations
that want to be ready for the future.
Trend analysis is a good example of different foresight methods complement-
ing and overlapping each other. Scenario studies, for instance, often start by
mapping relevant trends (trend analysis). Another example is the Delphi method,
which can often be used as an element of a trend analysis.
Technology forecasting is the most predictive method. Technology assessment
is closely linked, although as a method, it is less predictive, its focus being on the
potential social consequences of new technological developments. Both roadmap-
ping and backcasting take a normative look at the future. Their aim is not to
explore or predict what will happen in the future, but to determine which future
is desirable and which activities are needed to realize that desirable future. The
Delphi method and trend analysis can be used in a predictive way. In the case of
trend analysis, the emphasis will often be on identifying certain trends, while
Delphi will try to find a consensus between the experts being consulted.1 In this
book, we are also interested in the explorative side of the two methods: also
looking for uncertain trends and disagreement between experts. The scenario
method is highly explorative in nature, because it examines what could happen in
the future and looks for possible futures.

Terminology
In foresight literature, many different terms are used to describe the activity,
including futurology, futures research, forecasting, futures studies, prognostics,
foresight, futures explorations and future-­oriented technology analysis. In all
honesty, we should admit that the amount of terms being used in literature indi-
cates that the area does not yet have an adult (academic) status. In physics, to
name another area of science, there is not much discussion about what an atom
is, let alone about the question whether or not physics is the right name for the
discipline. In this book, we mostly use the term foresight to refer to the activities
that are needed to conduct a futures study.
A definition of foresight is: “Foresight is the ability, the skill and art of describ-
ing, explaining, exploring, predicting and/or interpreting future developments, as
well as assessing their consequences for decisions and other actions in the present”
(Berkhout et al., 2007, p. 74). This definition states that exploring the future not
only requires talent and creativity, but also a skill, in other words, a structured set
of actions that can be learned. As such, exploring the future is not about gazing
into a crystal ball, nor is it the exclusive domain of exotic characters, and foresight
does not have to be a “black box,” because there are methods available, as
described in this book, that can be used to collect information and build know-
ledge about the future(s). This definition also makes it clear that foresight is not a
goal in itself, but a way of making decisions based on different approaches to the
future (including exploring and predicting), as discussed above.
Finally, I want to make it clear that, even though the application of method dis-
tinguishes the foresight professional from the tarot card reader, successful foresight
8   P. van der Duin
requires more than being able to use methods. In fact, it is important not to engage
in what the Dutch Scientific Council refers to as “method fetishism” (Van Asselt et
al., 2010). The quality of foresight will not necessarily improve by developing yet
more methods. It is better to improve the existing foresight methods by learning
how they are applied in practice. It will undoubtedly become clear that, in addition
to applying foresight methods, the human factor and organizational context also
play an important role in understanding the future.

Structure of the Chapters

For the sake of readability and to allow the reader to compare the foresight
methods discussed in this book, every method chapter more or less has the same
structure.

1 Introduction: in the introduction, a description and short historical context is

provided of the method. A simple characterization often quickly provides
insight into the possible purpose of the method and the situations in which it
can be used.
2 State of the art: a description of the core of the method: what are the central
principles, what are the characteristics, what is the general structure of the
method? In addition, insight is provided into when the method should be
applied. A well-­executed method that is used for the wrong purpose will not
have the desired result, and the futures study will have little impact.
3 Structure: to apply foresight methods, it has to be clear what the different
steps are. And for each step, there will be different goals and guidelines.
What are the dos and don’ts of each method and of each step? How does
one link the results of the foresight study to the decision that one has to
make?
4 Finally: each chapter closes with a list of literature that has been used, as well
as a list of literature for those who want to know more about the method in
question.

In addition, to the seven foresight methods, this book also contains a number of
“help techniques” or tools. Foresight methods to a large extent consist of the
application of a number of tools that are common to multiple methods. For
instance, both in trend analysis and in technology assessment, conducting inter-
views is useful. Another aspect that is common to several methods is the creation
of causal diagrams that show the possible future relationships between different
variables. In all, eight of these tools are discussed:

1 Interviews: the future is often imagined and determined by people, so con-

sulting people directly is a very valuable source of information. Conducting
interviews can be useful in providing insight into possible important future
developments.
2 Workshops: an important source of input in the collection of information and
knowledge with regard to the future is provided by workshops. Thinking
 Introduction   9
about the future together, sharing ideas and engaging in joint discussions can
lead to surprisingly new and good insights.
3 Meta-­analysis: in many cases, organizations cannot afford to conduct fore-
sight studies. In those cases, it is also possible to use existing foresight studies
in a smart way. By “recycling” existing studies, it is possible to acquire high-­
quality knowledge and information about the future, without having to
spend a lot of resources (people, money).
4 The acceleration method: collecting many good ideas about the future
quickly is not a luxury when conducting a foresight study. Using the
­acceleration method, participants in a foresight study can learn from and
inspire each other quickly, because they immediately have insight into each
other’s opinions.
5 Creativity: the future cannot simply be calculated. The future is about “new
things” that can sometimes be explored, and sometimes predicted. Using
creativity makes it possible to discover and identify “new things.”
6 Stakeholder analysis: the future is often the result of human thoughts and
actions, which is why it is important to map actors that can or will play a
role in the future, as well as the way they are interconnected.
7 Causal diagrams: for a good insight into possible futures, it is important to
map the way changes are connected. Using causal diagrams makes it possible
to visualize quickly how developments influence each other, and which vari-
ables are relevant to and decisive for the future.
8 Visualization: the future does not only consist of words, but also of images. It
is especially the visualization of what may happen that can inspire people to
engage in the future more. As with most other things, when we are thinking
about the future, a picture says more than a thousand words.

Note
1 Of course, Delphi studies can also identify disagreement between experts (Van de Linde
and Van der Duin, 2011).

References
American Council for the United Nations University, the Millennium Project, Futures
Research Methodology version 3.0.
Asselt, M. van, A. Faas, F. van der Molen and S.A. Veenman (eds.) (2010). Uitzicht: toe-
komstverkennen met beleid [Out of sight: looking to the future carefully]. Amsterdam: Amster-
dam University Press.
Berkhout, A.J., P.A. van der Duin, L. Hartmann and J.R. Ortt (2007). The cyclic nature of
innovation: connecting hard sciences with soft values. Oxford: Elsevier.
Börjeson, L., M. Höjer, K.-H. Dreborg, T. Ekvall and G. Finnveden (2006). Scenario
types and techniques: towards a user’s guide. Futures, Vol. 38, pp. 723–739.
Duin, P.A. van der (2014). The crystal ball is not a black box: futures research in scientific
and organizational perspective. Journal of Futures Studies, Vol. 19, No. 2, pp. 125–134.
Duin, P.A. van der, R. van Oirschot, H. Kotey and E. Vreeling. (2009). To govern is to
foresee: an exploratory study into the relationship between futures research and strategy
and policy processes at Dutch Ministries. Futures, Vol. 41, pp. 607–618.
10   P. van der Duin
Linde, E. van de and P.A. van der Duin (2011). The Delphi method as early warning:
linking global societal trends to future radicalization and terrorism in the Netherlands.
Technology Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 78, pp. 1557–1564.
Poli, R. (2014). Anticipation: what about turning the human and social sciences upside
down? Futures, Vol. 64, pp. 15–18.
Seligman, M.E.P., P. Railton, R.F. Baumeister and C. Sripada (2013). Navigating into the
future or driven by the past. Perspectives on Psychological Science, Vol. 8, No. 2,
pp. 119–141.
Vergragt, P.J. and J. Quist (2011). Backcasting for sustainability: introduction to the special
issue. Futures, Vol. 78, pp. 747–755.
2 Developing Scenarios
Jan Nekkers

Introduction
Scenarios are a core product of foresight, because they embody two important
starting points of the discipline:

1 We need to think about the future in a meaningful and structured way in

order to be able to shape and prepare ourselves for that future.
2 At the same time, the future is often so uncertain that we cannot blindly trust
predictions. A single prediction can never capture every possible future.

The word “scenario” comes from the world of theater. A scenario is the descrip-
tion of the story of a play or movie. In foresight, there are different kinds of sce-
narios. A scenario is a description of what the future may possibly look like. That
is why we use a broad definition: scenarios explore potential futures that are
deemed possible and the developments that may lead there and/or desirable
futures and the developments that are needed to reach them (Dammers and
Langeweg, 2013, p. 5).
Scenarios are not predictions, speculations or science fiction. A scenario is a
story that describes a possible future end state in a horizon year, that also contains
an interpretation of the events and developments in the present and their propa-
gation into the future and that, finally, offers an internally consistent account of
how a future world unfolds (Wright and Goodwin, 2009, p. 817).
We use scenarios because predictions usually do not become reality. There are
many reasons for that: our knowledge of the world around us is limited. Theories
about social developments are usually less “definite” than those about the physical
world. Societies are reflexive: they respond to policy and, therefore, to predictions
about the future. Social developments are often not linear and gradual, but abrupt and
discontinuous in nature. To conclude with, society is often faced with unexpected
disruptive developments: uprisings, natural disasters, accidents, turbulence and chaos.
Scenarios are not a goal in themselves, but a tool to think about the future.
Scenarios can help us deal with cognitive complexity and uncertainty regarding
the future. A good scenario taps us on our shoulder and says: “Look, this could
be your future! Did you ever consider this to be possible? And most importantly:
are you prepared for that future?”
12   J. Nekkers
Good scenarios are plausible and relevant, and they lead to new insights. They are
plausible when we can imagine them becoming reality. This determines the credib-
ility of the scenarios. They are relevant when they are geared toward the problems
that organizations experience right now and when they offer leads for solutions for
the future. Good scenarios also offer new insights. They present us with surprising
new future realities. They encourage people to step outside their usual thought pat-
terns, transcend the dominant culture in their organization and take action.
Ever since scenarios became popular, there is one scenario development
method that has received the most attention: the scenario cross method, which is
considered by both scenario developers and scientists as the “standard” for
scenario-­building (Van Asselt et al., 2010, p. 61). Its popularity is so great that
many think it is the only way to develop scenarios. No matter how powerful a
method it is, there are many other methods that can be used to develop good
scenarios. In this chapter, we discuss both the scenario cross method and provide
an overview of the other methods.

Types of Scenarios
Futures studies can describe the probable future, the possible future and the
­desirable future. These categories are not mutually exclusive, there is a degree of
overlap.
Descriptions of the probable or expected future are predictions or prognoses
(forecasts). They provide an answer to the question: what will happen? They do
not fall under the definition of scenarios. However, some predictions are called
scenarios. These are the so-­called reference, baseline or business-­as-usual scenarios
in which currently dominant trends and developments are extrapolated into the
future.
Descriptions of possible futures (foresights) answer the question: what could
happen? They are scenarios in the strict sense of our definition. The scenarios are
distinguished by the extent to which they explore uncertainties about the future.
They vary from What if-scenarios to highly explorative scenarios.
What if scenarios show us what happens if a specified event were to occur in
the near future. Such an event or development forms a so-­called bifurcation point
that causes developments to take place along different paths. An example of such
a bifurcation point is a referendum about a fundamental issue. The “yes” or “no”
result of such a referendum leads to two different scenarios.
Explorative scenarios describe situations in the future that diverge from – or
even contrast with – the current situation, but that are still seen as possible
futures. They create an extreme extrapolation of current developments, to
explore the boundaries of what is possible. To map a broad range of possible
futures, usually a set of multiple scenarios is developed. By presenting different
scenarios, insight is provided into the uncertainty about the future development
of a given issue. By picturing contrasting futures, explorative scenarios can help
signal new developments and issues.
Normative scenarios answer the question: how can a certain goal be reached?
Using roadmaps (preserving scenarios) and by posing a “daring” goal that can be
 Developing Scenarios   13
achieved within the existing system, the steps are identified that can lead to the
desired objective. These steps are concretized in business, project or policy plans.
Transforming scenarios answer the question as to how a certain goal can be
reached if the current system blocks the necessary changes. Transforming scenar-
ios have to do with fundamental social problems with a high degree of complex-
ity, uncertainty and normative disagreement. Transforming scenarios paint
compelling pictures of the goal in question, for instance a sustainable city in 2050,
after which reverse reasoning (backcasting) is used to examine which system
innovations and trend reversals are need to reach the desired situation.

Scenarios can be divided into two types: external scenarios and object or policy
scenarios.
External scenarios focus on the factors that the relevant actors cannot influ-
ence. They describe what the environment of a company or organization may
look like in the future. They make it clear that the world can change quickly and
that that has consequences for one’s organization. Neither the organization itself
nor its strategy are a part of the scenario. External scenarios are very suitable as a
framework for developing policy and strategy. A classic example is the scenario
planning method whereby business strategies are developed that are robust in
comparison to various future external scenarios.
Strategic scenarios indicate what the possible consequences are of strategic
choices. They focus on the internal factors that the relevant actors can influence
and examine how they affect future developments.
System scenarios are combinations of external and strategic scenarios. Within
the normative scenarios, transforming scenarios are always system scenarios, while
roadmaps are always strategic scenarios. Predictive and explorative scenarios can
be either strategic or external scenarios.

History of Scenario-­thinking
The scenario planning method has a history in military strategy. Since the dawn
of time, soldiers have prepared for battles by reenacting future military situations.
Herman Kahn (1922–1983) is considered the godfather of scenario develop-
ment. He created his first scenarios for the RAND Corporation, a think tank for

Forecast Foresight

Predictive Explorative Normative

What will What can What should
happen? happen? happen?

Base-line What if Limited Radical Transition

Prediction explorative Roadmap
scenario scenarios scenarios scenario
scenarios

Figure 2.1 Kinds of scenarios.

14   J. Nekkers
military-­strategic issues. Kahn’s greatest contribution to foresight was that he used
a system analysis to identify the mechanisms, patterns and structures that may lead
to a future event, outlining a logical path of hypothetical events that lead to a
certain end state. Kahn called it the “future-­now” technique. He felt that the
ultimate goal of these scenarios was: “thinking about the unthinkable.”
With the exception of these first beginnings, the predict and control approach
played a dominant role until the 1960s. With a scientific foundation, the future
had to be predicted as accurately as possible. In the early 1970s, Shell broke with
this way of looking at the future in a radical way. The director of the Planning
Group, the Frenchman Pierre Wack, argued that scenarios should not explore the
certainties, but that they should be based on the uncertainties regarding the future.
At the time within Shell, oil prices were considered to be one of the most
certain and stable factors in the future. Wack and his team reached the conclu-
sion, however, that oil prices may very well be the most uncertain factor. Over-
production of oil could develop into an oil shortage, which meant that huge
fluctuations in oil prices could not be ruled out. In 1971, Wack created scenarios
in which oil prices reached four times their current levels. The scenarios showed
that oil-­producing countries could limit oil production to drive up prices, which
would cause oil prices to rise quickly in the 1970s.
The scenarios were ready just in time. On October 6, 1973, the Yom Kippur
war started: a surprise attack by Egypt and Syria on Israel. In the aftermath, the Arab
OPEC countries started to use oil as a strategic weapon against the West, causing
the 1973 oil crisis. Because Shell had already captured these developments in sce-
narios, the company was able to respond more effectively and more quickly, which
gave Shell a competitive advantage that lasted until the 1980s.
Former employees of the Shell Planning Group discovered a flourishing
market for scenario planning. In 1987, they founded the Global Business
Network (GBN). One of the founders of GBN, Peter Schwartz, wrote the first
global bestseller about scenario planning (The Art of the Long View), in which the
scenario cross method is presented as the method for developing scenarios.1
In 1996, Kees van der Heijden, former head of Shell’s Planning Group, wrote
the book Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. Van de Heijden argues that
the main purpose of scenarios is to get decision-­makers to enter into a strategic
conversation about the future. This creates a shared language and collective
understanding about which developments determine the future, which in turn
will allow them to understand new developments better and anticipate more
quickly. According to Van de Heijden, the strategic conversation about the sce-
narios is the core of the scenario method.

The Structure of a Scenario Project

A Scenario Project in Seven Steps
A scenario trajectory can be divided into seven steps. It is best to include all steps,
but it is not necessary. Depending on the goal of the trajectory and the available
means, more weight, time or attention can be assigned to certain steps.
 Developing Scenarios   15
The seven steps are:

1 Preparation
• Why a scenario project?
2 Orientation
• What is the question that has to be answered with the scenarios?
• What is the time horizon of the scenarios?
3 Exploring the environment
• What trends or developments are important for the future?
4 Determining scenario structure
• How do you create a framework on the basis of which you can build
different scenarios?
5 Building scenarios
• What are the most important elements of the scenarios?
• How can the scenarios be made radical and future-­oriented?
• What are the titles of the scenarios?
6 Using scenarios
• What strategic conclusions can we draw from the scenarios?
• What do the scenarios teach us about the future?
7 Monitoring scenarios
• What scenario(s) are the actual developments in line with?
• What are the early warning signs?

Step 1: Preparation
Scenarios are a tool for reaching a strategic goal. Before starting a scenario project,
you have to ask yourself what it is you want to achieve with the scenarios that
will be developed. The goal also determines the type of scenarios that are most
suitable. If, for example, you want to examine which strategies are robust in an
uncertain future, you would rather make use of external scenarios than strategic
scenarios. On the other hand, when the aim is to start learning processes that will
break through the dominant way of thinking within the organization, it is better
to develop strategic scenarios.

Client
Every scenario project has a client and a developer. The client is a person or team
entrusted with the development of the scenarios. To make sure the scenario
project is effective, the client must have decision-­making powers and influence in
the area to which the scenarios relate.

Organization Scenario Team

The scenario team writes the scenarios. For most people, this is not a routine
activity, which is why it is crucial to the success of the scenario team to make
sure that the team members complement each other. A good scenario team is
16   J. Nekkers
multi-­disciplinary and includes a broad spectrum of people in terms of their age,
professional education and working experience. Scenario writers need to be able
to write vividly. A good scenario writer has the will and courage to engage in
original and independent thought. In most cases, excessive expertise is actually a
counter-­indication.

Go/No-­go
The most important question in the preparation is to assess critically whether
­scenarios are the right tool: should a scenario project actually be started? The
checklist presented in Figure 2.2 can help to answer that question.

Step 2: Orientation
Scenario Question
As with any question: the answer is never better than the question you ask. In the
orientation phase, it is important to formulate exactly what the question is that
the scenarios are expected to answer. We call that the scenario question.
In most cases, the question for which scenarios are made are an unstructured
problem, in other words, a problem to which no unequivocal answer is possible,
due to the complexity and/or turbulence of the subject. Alternatively, it may be
that the knowledge about the subject is incomplete or that there is disagreement
about the values involved.

Determining Time Horizon

Most scenarios look about five to twenty years into the future. The time horizon
depends on the dynamics of the environment. In extremely dynamic and complex
circumstances, uncertainty about the future is greater than in stable unequivocal
situations. When there is a lot of uncertainty, the scenarios will diverge quickly, in
which case the time horizon can sometimes be less than one year.

Step 3: Exploring the Environment

The first step in exploring the environment is a broad orientation via the collec-
tion of information in different ways. Information that is available online about
the subject is collected. People are interviewed. A more elaborate way of collect-
ing information is by using a questionnaire, which can best be done after a little
more is known about the subject. A future-­oriented type of questionnaire is the
Delphi technique.

Analyzing the Baseline

We make scenarios by connecting our knowledge of past and present with our
imagination. To explore the future in a solid way, it is important to analyze the
current state of affairs and examine how it came about. The analysis contains a
 If the problem and solution are
clear, there is no need to develop
What is the
scenarios. But keep in mind that
core problem? Clear problem the most obvious solution is not
and solution always the best one.
Clear or unclear
problem without
unequivocal solution
If uncertainty is low, it is better to
How much uncertainty make a good prediction and base
is there about the your actions on that. Scenarios,
core problem? Low level of on the other hand,
uncertainty explore uncertainties.
Average to high
uncertainty

If management wants to maintain

Is the organization
the status quo, there is no point
open to change?
No in using scenarios.

Yes

Scenarios are not useful if:

Is the organization
• the organization is in a crisis
open to change
and the need for change is high
dialogue? Is the
No • there is a conflict
timing good?
• the round of a cycle has finished.

Is there trust between There is no trust if there is no

client and possibility for feedback and
scenario maker? No direct access to the client.

Yes

Does the organization have access to

the following resources
• someone to lead and be responsible
for the scenario process If not, arrange the necessary
• enough time and resources resources before starting.
No
• possibly a liaison officer
• possibly resources for external
support?

Yes

The scenario method is a suitable way

of handling the core problem.

Figure 2.2 Go/no-go checklist.

18   J. Nekkers
description of the various forces or developments that affect the scenario question
and the way they affect and relate to each other, in effect creating a (quantitative
or other) model of the current situation. The analysis of the baseline can be used
as a basis for a reference, baseline or business-­as-usual scenario.

Identify Trends and Discontinuities

An important feature of the scenario method is that a distinction is drawn
between elements that are predictable or predetermined and elements that are
open to change in the future and, as such, uncertain.
In the environment of an organization or (policy) issue, there are social devel-
opments that have a major impact on the future. We call those: trends. Trends
are extrapolations of developments in the present. They are slowly changing phe-
nomena or projects that “is already in the pipeline” into the future. Like all phe-
nomena from social reality, trends cannot be identified objectively. A trend is a
trend because we perceive it as such.
Trends have the following characteristics:

• A trend can be distinguished in social reality.

• A trend has a certain direction and causes a change.
• A trend lasts for a longer period of time.
• A trend develops more or less evenly.

To be able to make meaningful statements about the future, we not only look at
those trends that directly affect an organization or issue, but also at the “trends
behind the trends” that occur in a wider social context. In doing so, we draw a
distinction between trends in the transactional environment and trends in the
contextual environment.
An important guideline in the exploration of trends is: work from the outside in.
Businesses and organizations are systems that operate in a social environment.
They have direct relationships and contacts with their transactional or work
environment, which in turn is affected by the broad social developments in the
contextual environment. In that sense, the transactional environment is a gateway
for trends on the contextual environment. Once it is clear what trends there are
in the contextual environment, scenarios can be made that show how the trans-
actional environment will change in the future.
When looking in the contextual environment for the driving forces, the
acronym DESTEP (demographics, economy, socio-cultural, technology, ecology
and politics) is a good checklist to make sure you have taken all domains into
account.
Because trends develop more or less evenly over a longer period of time, they
can be used to say something about the future. However, future developments
are never 100 percent certain. In reality, trends often develop in an unexpected
manner. Trends can occur sooner or later than expected: uncertain in speed.
Trends can deviate in their direction or even be reversed: pendulum
uncertainty.
 Developing Scenarios   19

Contextual
environment

Demographics Transactional Politics

environment
Competitors
Direct
market
demand

Own Suppliers
organization
Clients
Investors
Economy Ecology
Distribution
channels Partners

Socio-cultural Technology

Figure 2.3 Contextual and transactional environment.

Trends whose future development is hard to predict are called uncertainties.

They form the basis of scenarios, because the aim of scenarios is precisely to map
uncertainties about the future. When creating scenarios, there is a special interest
in what scenario thinkers call core uncertainties. The more uncertainties can develop
in different and preferably contradictory directions, the more explorative ­scenarios
become.

Discontinuities
Discontinuities are sudden disruptions in the existing development. Unexpected
external developments can completely put the world upside down and force a
trend reversal.
Wild cards are developments that are unexpected or considered to be unlikely
and that have such a tremendous impact that a social development changes course
definitively. Think of natural disasters like earthquakes or tsunamis. Terrorist
20   J. Nekkers
attacks like 9/11 or the attack on Charlie Hebdo can also be considered wild
cards.
Discontinuities can also be the result of technological innovations, which often
display a fixed pattern, starting with a latent phase, followed by an eruption and a
period of normalization. In the latent phase, an innovation is still in its pilot stage.
Then the innovation breaks through, pushing ­established companies and
­technologies out of the market. Often, this is accompanied by extremely or even
excessively high expectations: a bubble. After a while, expectations are tempered
and the market becomes accustomed to the new technology. This development
explains why the initial impact of new technologies is often overrated, and why
its long-­term impact is often underestimated.
Exponential developments are a specific type of discontinuities. A famous
example is Moore’s Law, which states that, when prices stay the same, processor
chip capacity is doubled every 18 months. This law has proven to be correct ever
since Intel introduced the processor 4004 in 1971, even though the period is not
always exactly 18 months. Many products that are the result of IT developments
can be described as an exponential development. An exponential growth curve
rises very gradually and after a certain point (the knee in the curve) the dynamics
increase. That explains why, at first, exponential trends remain “beneath the
surface” and become manifest and dominant after a certain moment.
Discontinuities can be detected in their latent phase by being alert to “weak
signals.”
So-­called bifurcations are a final form of discontinuity. Bifurcations are events
whose developments can take one of two directions. Examples are referendums
with a certain result, irreversible decisions, the success or failure of a given
policy. Identifying future bifurcations offers the possibility to write a history
book on the future (Dammers and Langeweg, 2013, p. 48), including an under-
lying timeline.

Step 4: Determining Scenario Structure

There are two ways to build scenarios: inductive and deductive (Van der Heijden,
1996, p. 196).
Impact

Time

Figure 2.4 Impact of technological innovation.

 Developing Scenarios   21
Impact

Knee

Time

Figure 2.5 Exponential development.

In the case of the inductive way, separate trends, developments, continuities, dis-
continuities and future facts are brought together, after which they are clustered in
coherent units and an attempt is made to identify chains of events in these clusters.
Subsequently, storylines can be based on each of the clusters. Finally, the idea is to
identify an underlying structure in the various storylines.
A famous example of inductive scenario-­building are the Mont Fleur scenar-
ios. In the early 1990s, many people were worried about how the transfer of
power in South Africa would take place after the apartheid regime. The outbreak
of a civil war was not unthinkable. In 1991 and 1992, in the conference center
Mont Fleur, a group of influential South Africans came together, led by Shell’s
scenario planner Adam Kahane. The group consisted of leaders of the main

Scenario

Scenario

Scenario

Scenario

Time

Figure 2.6 Bifurcations.

22   J. Nekkers
left-­wing opposition groups, from ANC to the South African Communist Party,
in addition to their life-­long enemies; prominent members of the white minority
(businessmen and scientists).
How was it possible to get these political opponents to make scenarios in a
constructive way? Adam Kahane told the participants to brainstorm in small
groups about possible scenarios for the transition. The central question was:
“How will the future actually develop?” An added assignment was: “Do not give
your vision about how you want the future to develop.” The first brainstorming
sessions yielded 30 stories, which were clustered and reduced over a number of
rounds to four scenarios. Next, the underlying structure was analyzed. The four
scenarios gave different answers to how the transition in South Africa could take
place. They were presented in 1992 in a situation in which intensive negotiations
took place about the transition toward a new society.
Three of the four scenarios showed how the transition could go wrong:

• Ostrich, in which the nonrepresentative white government sticks its head in

the sand to try to avoid a negotiated settlement with the black majority.
• Lame Duck, in which there is a prolonged transition with a constitutionally
weakened government which, because it purports to respond to all, satisfies
none.
• Icarus, in which a constitutionally unconstrained black government comes to
power on a wave of popular and noble intentions, and embarks on a huge
and unsustainable public spending program, which crashes the economy.

Only the fourth scenario offered an attractive vision of the transition. It was the
scenario called Flight of the Flamingos, in which the transition was successful
because all the key building blocks were put in place, with everyone in South
Africa rising slowly and together.
On closer analysis, it appeared that the underlying structure of the scenarios
was the decision-­making tree, shown in Figure 2.7.

With the deductive way of developing a scenario, a structure is determined in

advance that is the framework within which the scenarios are developed. The
framework is filled using separate elements (developments, trends, continuities,
discontinuities) that were identified in the environmental analysis.
There are different ways to arrive at a scenario structure:

• qualitative models
• quantitative models
• scenario cross method
• morphological field.

Qualitative Models
In the case of qualitative models, the main causal relationships between variables
are presented schematically, without quantifying them. The underlying dynamics
 Developing Scenarios   23

Flight of the
Flamingos
Inclusive
democracy
Yes and growth

Are the government’s

policies sustainable?
Yes
No
Is the transition
rapid and decisive?
Yes Icarus
No
Macro economic
Is a settlement populism
negotiated?
No Lame Duck
Starting point: Incapacitated
negotiations government

Ostrich
Non-representative
government

Figure 2.7 Scenario structures: Mont Fleur scenarios.

of the scenarios are visualized. By choosing from different variables, different sce-
narios are created. Figure 2.8 shows two causal models for sustainable packaging.

Quantitative Models
Quantitative models can also be useful to express the underlying dynamics of sce-
narios. Setting up quantitative models requires enough data and well-­founded
insight into the causal relationships. Demographic, economic and climatological
developments are all very suitable for quantitative models. It is important to keep
in mind that the models are used to create different possible scenarios, and that
they do not lead to predictions.
An advantage of the quantifiable scenarios is that they are more plausible and
convincing than scenarios that only contain qualitative terms. A disadvantage is
that the scenarios can only focus on developments that are quantifiable. Another
disadvantage can be that the scenario development will almost inevitably lead to a
high, low and intermediate scenario.

Scenario Cross Method

The scenario cross method has been called the “golden tool” of scenario develop-
ment (Van Asselt et al., 2010, p. 62). At any rate, the scenario cross method is
24   J. Nekkers

Causal schematics Causal schematics

Emergence Emergence
No joint No joint
BRIC BRIC
EU policy EU policy
countries countries

Energy and
Long-term Competitive No resource
resource
crisis EU global market scarcity
scarcity

Horizontal- Growth Property, status,

ization bottom-up Continuation existing
comfort and
society inititiatives consumption patterns
luxury important to
on a large scale
(new) consumers

Local economy
stronger; growth Growing Food and
bartering/sharing world water scarcity
population

Figure 2.8 Causal schematics.

“a dominating model for scenario building around the world” (Lindgren and
Bandhold, 2003, pp. 66–67), to the extent that many people believe, erroneously,
that the scenario method is an indispensable element of scenario development.
A scenario cross is created by combining two core uncertainties in a 2 × 2
matrix, creating four quadrants by placing two dimensions with extremes opposite
one another (see Figure 2.9). The quadrants distinguish themselves on the dimen-
sions of the core uncertainties, as result of which each quadrant has two distin-
guishing characteristics. Each quadrant is the basis for a scenario.
The advantage of the scenario cross method is that it forces people to capture
the complex future reality in, at the most, two main dimensions, forcing them to
focus on the heart of the matter. Another advantage is that four scenarios are a
good number. People working with more than four scenarios often cannot see
the wood for the trees.
A precondition for a good scenario cross is that the core uncertainties are
­independent of one another. If the dimensions have a causal relationship, it will
result in two rather than four scenarios.
Scenarios are often the most exciting when the dimensions create surprises,
which is the case if there is friction in the combination of characteristics. At first,
it is hard to imagine how such a combination can lead to a realistic scenario.
Once people manage to imagine such a scenario, the result is often new and
surprising.
How do you know if you have chosen the right axes that will yield the right
future scenario? The honest answer is that you can never be sure. The main thing
is to choose usable axes that can lead to meaningful scenarios, which is a matter of
 Developing Scenarios   25

Scenario I Scenario
II

Core uncertainty 1
Core uncertainty 2

Scenario Scenario
IV III

Figure 2.9 Scenario cross.

trial and error. In addition, it is a process that involves multiple people in a work-
shop, because scenario development is an intersubjective affair.
A usable scenario cross is found by first looking at which of the trends and
developments that have been identified has the greatest impact and uncertainties.
That works as follows. In step 3, “Exploring the environment,” a group of people
have brainstormed about the trends and developments that may be relevant to
their company or organization. These trends and developments need to be ranked
in terms of their impact and uncertainty. That is not a scientific process. There
are no fixed criteria to decide why one trend or development has a bigger impact
than others. By discussing the various trends and developments intensively, the
participants gain insight into each other’s perspective on the organization and on
the outside world, and are able to identify common ground. It is best to support
the brainstorm session and the discussion about the driving and their ranking by
working with stickers (moderation stickers or post-­its). The first step is to divide
the driving forces on the basis of their impact, the second step is to divide them
26   J. Nekkers
on the basis of their predictability. The trends and uncertainties should first be
ranked on a white board or flip-­over on the basis of their impact. The result is
shown in Figure 2.10.
The driving forces with the highest impact are the factors that are able to
shake the company’s or organization’s foundations. In particular the discussion
about which factors have a greater impact than others can – especially if opinions
are extremely divided – lead to new strategic insights.
Next, the trends and uncertainties need to be ranked according to their level
of uncertainty, which in this case is divided as the extent to which their future
development is difficult to predict. This means that, at this stage, the stickers can
only be moved horizontally, because they have already been ranked according to
impact.
These two steps together produce the impact-­uncertainty matrix shown in
Figure 2.11.
The top-­right corner shows the core uncertainties, in this case driving forces 1
and 3, which have the greatest impact on the organization and are at the same
time the most unpredictable. Their uncertainty comes from the fact that their
future development can take opposite directions.

Impact high Driving

force 1

Driving
force 2

Driving
force 3

Driving
force 4

Driving
force 5

Driving
Impact low force 6

Figure 2.10 Impact ranking.

 Developing Scenarios   27

Impact high Driving

force 1

Driving
force 2

Driving
force 3

Driving
force 4

Driving
force 5

Driving
force 6

Impact low

Uncertainty low Uncertainty high

Figure 2.11 Impact and uncertainty matrix.

Driving force 2 is important to scenario development because it is a trend: the

impact on the organization is high, but it is uncertain whether and how it will
occur in the future. This trend will have to be included in all scenarios.
The core uncertainties that have been selected can be represented as opposites
with extremes. Examples of core uncertainties are: centralized vs. decentralized,
or economic growth vs. economic stagnation.
Combine the core uncertainties with the greatest impact and uncertainty into
a scenario cross.

External or Strategic Scenarios

When the steps described above have been taken, that will result in core
uncertainties for external scenarios. The core uncertainties determine what the
most important dimensions are of the future environment of the company or
organization.
To create strategic scenarios that show how a company or organization may
develop in the future, a virtually identical approach is needed in workshops. It
28   J. Nekkers
starts with brainstorming about the most important strategic choices and/or
dilemmas for the company or organization. After that, the choices are ranked, not
on the basis of uncertainty, but on the extent to which they are genuine dilem-
mas. The choices of real dilemmas exclude each other. The choices that have the
biggest impact and pose the greatest dilemma are then used as core uncertainties
for the strategic scenarios.

Morphological Field
General Morphological Analysis is a method to identify possible relationships or
configurations for complex problems (Ritchey, 2011). The method starts by identi-
fying the most important dimensions that determine a problem. These dimensions
are called parameters. Next, values are assigned to the parameters. The morphologi-
cal field consists of the collection of parameters and their assigned values.
The 2 × 2 matrix that is the result of a scenario cross is in fact a very simple mor-
phological field. Whereas a scenario cross consists of two parameters that can take on
two values, a morphological field consists of x parameters that can take on y values.
In the case of a morphological scenario model, the aim is to examine which
configurations of values of the parameters can lead to a scenario. The main cri-
terion for that is the internal consistency between the values. In a morphological
field, the number of possible scenarios is the product of the number of values per
parameter for all parameters. In the field mentioned above, that is
2 × 2 × 4 × 2 × 3 = 96. The fact that it is possible to create a large number of sce-
narios in a morphological field is on the one hand its strength, but on the other
hand, it is also a weakness.
Next, it is possible to examine which combinations of values have the highest
level of coherence. Those are the dimensions of the scenarios. In practice, the best

Core uncertainties individualization

Individualization versus collectivization

Core uncertainties economic development

Economic growth versus negative growth

Core uncertainties market development

Supply-driven versus demand-driven

Figure 2.12 Core uncertainties.

 Developing Scenarios   29

Parameter 1 Parameter 2 Parameter 3 Parameter 4 Parameter 5

Value 1 Value 1 Value 1 Value 1 Value 1

Value 2 Value 2 Value 2 Value 2 Value 2

Value 3 Value 3
New

Value 4

Figure 2.13 Morphological field.

way to find combinations is by ranking the parameters on the basis of their impact,
from left to right, with the parameter with the highest impact on the left. Next, the
aim is to look from left to right to see which consistent combinations are possible.
That can be done by first outlining a scenario that is closest to the current reality
and then outlining a scenario that is the most radical and future-­oriented.
In the example presented in Figure 2.14, those could be the following
combinations.
If the two parameters with the highest impact also have two values, the scen-
ario cross method can be used to begin by exploring the four possible combina-
tions, after which those combinations can be extrapolated to other values shown
in Figure 2.15.
An important advantage of a morphological scenario model us that it is pos-
sible to produce a manageable number of scenarios, even with multiple dimen-
sions. Unlike the scenario cross method, there is no need to reduce the
complexity of reality to the two dimensions with the greatest impact and
uncertainty.

Step 5: Building Scenarios

Filling in the Scenario Structure
At this point, we are about to fill in the scenario structure to create real scenarios.
This is done by using imagination and logical reasoning to imagine future worlds.
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UNITED STATES: A. D. 1901-1905.

MORTON, PAUL:
President of Equitable Life Assurance Society.

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INSURANCE, LIFE.

MOSCOW,
Risings and Disturbances in.

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RUSSIA.

MOSLEM LEAGUE.

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INDIA: A. D. 1907 (December); also, 1907-1909.

MOSQUITO TERRITORY, THE.

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CENTRAL AMERICA: A. D. 1905.

MOTIENLING.

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JAPAN: A. D. 1904 (JULY-SEPTEMBER).

MOVING PICTURE SHOWS.

See (in this Volume)

SCIENCE AND INVENTION.

MUIJTEHEDS:
 The higher Persian Priests.

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PERSIA: A. D. 1905-1907.

MUKDEN: A. D. 1903.
Opened to Foreign Trade.

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CHINA: A. D. 1903 (MAY-OCTOBER).

MUKDEN: Battle of.

See (in this Volume)

JAPAN: A. D. 1904-1905 (SEPTEMBER-MARCH).

MULAI AHMED BEN MOHAMMED, EL RAISULI.

See (in this Volume)

MOROCCO: A. D. 1904-1909.

MULAI HAFID:
Sultan of Morocco by Dethronement of his Brother.

See (in this Volume)

MOROCCO: A. D. 1907-1909, and 1909.

MULAI HASSAN, Late Sultan of Morocco.

See (in this Volume)

MOROCCO: A. D. 1903.

MULLAH, ABDULLA MUHAMMED.

See (in this Volume)

AFRICA: SOMALILAND.
MULLAS:
The common Persian Priests.

See (in this Volume)

PERSIA: A. D. 1905-1907.

MUNICIPAL COMMITTEES IN INDIA.

See (in this Volume)

INDIA: A. D. 1907-1909.

----------MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT: Start--------

MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT:
American Democracy’s most Serious Problem.
Present Interest in it.
Hopeful Movements.

Americans have long been forced to acknowledge that political

democracy in the United States makes its worst showing in the
government of municipalities; and those who give any searching
thought to the matter have little dispute over reasons for the
fact. It connects very plainly with another fact, namely, that
municipal politics, as a political interest distinct
and apart from the interests of government in Nation and
State, has had no growth in the country as yet. Up to the time
of the formation of the national union, the few cities of
America had a quite positive political life of their own,
which might have carried them into conditions very different
from what they have realized since, if it had not undergone
the absorption that it did in the politics of a national
government. The national political parties formed then on
exciting issues, sectional, constitutional, and economic,
caught all political feeling into their embrace, not
instantly, but gradually, and surely, and appropriated the
whole mechanism of political organization to themselves.
Cities are the natural centers of such mechanism, and the
 great parties of Federal politics were able easily to impose
on them a domination which left no free working of public
opinion on the immediate concerns of the cities themselves.
All political action was drawn into the mill which turns out
Presidents, Congresses, Tariffs, Bank Acts, etc., and the mere
by-product of Mayors, Aldermen, and City Ordinances which it
drops incidentally into the cities, receives almost no stamp
of quality or design from the local mind.

Until the wheels of local government are loosened in some way

from the clutch of the great party machines, and can work
independently, under motive forces of their own, to produce
the satisfaction of local needs, interests, and aims, there
will be little success in undertakings of municipal reform.
How to accomplish that political ungearing is one of the
greatest, if not the greatest, of the problems now occupying
the minds of the American people. Fortunately it is occupying
their minds. Within the last few years they have given more
thought to this subject than it ever received from them
before; and it has been bold thought, as well as profoundly
earnest. It has not been afraid of hospitality to new ideas
and new experiences, but is giving them fair hearings and fair
tests. The present attitude of the whole country in this
matter is of the happiest hopefulness, and every day brightens
the prospect of a better future for municipal government in
America.

MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT: BOSTON: A. D. 1909.

A Plan of Government chosen by popular vote.

In connection with the election of November 2, 1909, the

citizens of Boston, Massachusetts, had two plans of City
Government submitted to their vote, and the charter under
which the City will be ruled and its business conducted after
the beginning of February, 1910, was determined by the choice
between these plans which a majority expressed at the polls.
One of the plans emanated from an official body, called the
 Finance Commission, which had been appointed to investigate
bad conditions in the City Government, and whose
investigations had given rise to the demand for a radical
reform. This plan had the approval, moreover, of a citizens
Committee of One Hundred, which had given much attention to
the subject; but it was exceedingly unsatisfactory to the
party politicians, whose personal interests were flagrantly
disregarded in its scheme. These drafted a form of charter
which fitted their own purposes, and the two plans were
submitted to the Legislature in the winter of 1909. That body
escaped the responsibility of a decision between them by
referring both to the voters of Boston. The charter wanted by
the party managers was designated as "Plan No. 1"; that of the
Finance Commission and the Committee of One Hundred as "Plan
No. 2."
{432}
A strenuous campaign of education was fought for some weeks
before election day by the supporters of Plan No. 2, who seem
to have included practically all single-minded seekers of good
government, and an equally active campaign of wire-pulling was
carried on by the champions of Plan No. 1. The education was
successful in convincing 39,175 voters that Plan 2 should be
preferred, while 35,306 were persuaded to the contrary, and
about 34,000 remained so indifferent or undecided that they
gave the question no vote. But public considerations prevailed
over party motives and influences by 3869 votes, which is a
highly important fact.

The charter thus adopted for Boston differs in many features

from what has acquired the name of "the Des Moines plan," but
is fundamentally akin to it in principle and aim. Its prime
purpose is to divorce local politics from national politics,
freeing municipal elections from the baneful control of
parties which have nothing rightly to do with the city’s
affairs. Its secondary object is to concentrate official
responsibility in a moderated way. It subjects the mayor of
Boston, at the middle of his term, to a reconsideration of the
vote which elected him (in the nature of the Swiss "recall"),
but it does not introduce the initiative and referendum. The
operation of the new charter under its provisions was outlined
as follows by the Boston Herald on the day following
its adoption:

"By the acceptance of plan 2, party and all other designations

will be eliminated from the ballots for the municipal
elections, which will be held on the first Tuesday after the
second Monday in January of each year. The coming city
election will be held on January 11.

"Candidates for mayor must be nominated by petition of not

less than 5000 registered Boston voters. The candidate who
receives the highest vote at the city election will hold
office for four years, unless recalled at the end of two
years. The salary will be $10,000 a year.

"At the state election in the second year of the mayor’s term
the ballots will contain the question: ‘Shall there be an
election for mayor at the next municipal election?’ And this
will be answered by ‘Yes,’ or ‘No.’ If a majority of the
registered voters vote ‘Yes’ an election for mayor will be
held at the following city election.

"Whether recalled or not, the mayor holding office will have

his name on the ballot at the city election unless in writing
he requests the election commissioners not to place his name
on the ballot. The mayor then elected will hold office for
four years, subject to recall at the end of his second year.

"The city council will consist of nine members, all elected at

large. The salary will be $1500 each. In the election on
January 11 the voters may vote for nine candidates, and the
nine receiving the highest votes will be declared elected. The
three highest will have three-year terms, the three next
highest will serve for two years and the next three for one
year each. Each year thereafter three candidates-at-large will
be elected, and the voters may vote for three. All members of
the city council will be elected at large, and there will be
no ward members of the body. By the abolition of party
designations no primary elections or caucuses for municipal
offices will be held.

"All candidates for mayor, city council and school board must
be nominated by papers of not less than 5000 registered
voters. No voter may sign more than one paper for mayor, not
more than nine for council for the first election and for
three candidates thereafter, and not more than two papers for
the school board when there are two members to be elected.

"If a candidate for any of the offices decides to withdraw

from the contest before the election, vacancies in nominations
for any cause may be filled by a committee of not less than
five persons authorized in the nomination papers to fill such
vacancies.

"Members of the street commission, formerly elected at large,

will be appointed by the mayor, subject to approval by the
civil service commission, but without restriction as to their
political affiliation. All department heads will be appointed
by the mayor, subject to approval by the civil service
commission.

"The new municipal year will begin on the first Monday in

February, when the mayor and city council will be inducted
into office."

The election, held at the appointed time, January 11, 1910,

was managed so badly as to divide the vote of the reforming
element between three candidates, against one, the former
Mayor, Fitzgerald, whose scandalous administration had
afforded the prime incentive to the reform movement, and thus
giving opportunity for his election by a small plurality. A
 committee of the reform leaders had chosen for their candidate
Mr. James J. Storrow, President of the Boston Chamber of
Commerce, and strove to concentrate the opposition to
Fitzgerald upon him; but the Mayor in office, who had secured
renomination, persisted in keeping the field, and won the
petty number of 1816 votes, which a little more than sufficed
to elect Fitzgerald. The vote given the latter was 47,142,
against 45,757 to Mr. Storrow, and 613 to the fourth
candidate, Taylor. A recount of the vote was secured, but made
no substantial change.

MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT: California:

Charter-framing Power given to Cities.

"All cities in California except the very smallest are

permitted to frame their own charters, which become effective
upon ratification by the legislature. The cities are quick to
avail themselves of this privilege, with the result that
almost every possible experiment in municipal organization may
be found on trial somewhere in California. That the cities are
progressive is shown by the fact that within the past decade
every city of any size in the State has remodeled its
organization either by a new charter or by far-reaching
amendments. A high standard of efficient city organization has
been set by the recent charter of the city of Berkeley
[adopted 1909], which furnishes a very perfect example of the
‘commission’ plan. Elections are freed from the influence of
national parties, and the possibility of a final choice in the
direct primary is sufficient to bring out the entire vote of
the city.

"The popular initiative, the referendum, and the recall are

now generally established in all the larger cities of the
State, but outside of San Francisco and Los Angeles without
sufficient use to test their value for good government. In San
Francisco the popular initiative has been used more frequently
for bad measures than for good. In Los Angeles the spectacular
removal of the mayor in 1909 will doubtless be regarded as a
justification of the method of recall."
Frederick H. Clark,
Head of History Department, Lowell High School,
San Francisco, California.

{433}

MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT: Chicago:

The Municipal Voters’ League.

In 1896 there was thought in Chicago of attempting to organize

a strictly Municipal Party for action in municipal politics
alone, and a conference of citizens appointed a committee to
deal with the scheme. The committee decided this project to be
impracticable, but its deliberations resulted in the creation
of a Municipal Voters’ League, acting through a non-partisan
committee of nine, whose function was to scrutinize all
candidacies and nominations for the City Common Council, and
afford information concerning them to voters of all parties
who desired the election of honest and capable men. A
permanent office force was employed, and thorough
investigations made as to the record and character of every
nominee for the Council. The results of these investigations
were published, with recommendations for or against the
respective candidates. The league brought pressure to bear, in
the first place, to prevent the nomination of objectionable
candidates, and then exerted its influence to defeat such
candidates at the polls.

This has been done with such effect in election after election
as to produce a remarkable change in the character of the
Council. Similar agencies have been brought into action in a
number of cities within the few last years, with equally good
results.

MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT:
Chicago’s Struggles for a Better Charter.
A body known as the "Charter Convention," made up of delegates
appointed by or representing the Governor of the State, the
State Assembly, and the several branches and departments of
the City Government, was organized in December, 1905, and
labored at the framing of a new City Charter until the early
part of 1907, when the product of its labors was submitted to
the Legislature of Illinois. Some of the main features of the
charter were these:

Consolidation in the municipal government of Chicago of the

power vested in the board of education, township, park, and
other local governments within the city;

submission of propositions to popular vote;

aldermen to be elected once in four years;

the raising of adequate revenue by the issue of bonds and

by other means;

the power to own, maintain, and operate all public

utilities in the city, including intramural, railroads,
subways and tunnels, and telephone, telegraph, gas,
electric lighting, heating, refrigerating and power plants;

the parks to be under the management of a city department

of parks;

the public-school system to be a department of the city

government and under the control of a board of education of
fifteen members appointed by the mayor for terms of three
years;

the public library to be managed by a board of nine

directors appointed by the mayor for terms of six years.
 As it went to the Legislature this draft charter represented
much compromising of divergent opinions, and, probably, was
not really satisfactory to anybody. The Legislature made it
less so by amendments, and when it went to the people of
Chicago, in September, 1907, for their verdict on it at the
polls, they rejected it by 121,935 votes against 59,786.

Early in 1908 the Charter Convention was reassembled and

revised its former work, cutting the requisite legislation up
into seven distinct bills, with a view to securing better
chances of success for some reforms, if the whole could not be
won; but the entire lot was killed in the Legislature.

MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT: The Galveston or Des Moines Plan.

Its Features.
Extent of its Present Trial.

Curiously enough, the present trend of opinion on the

question, "What structure of municipal government will lend
itself best to the reforms that it needs?" is in a direction
that was given to it by accident, about ten years ago. Perhaps
nothing short of a great catastrophe, like that of hurricane
and flood, which wrecked the city of Galveston, on the 8th of
September, 1900, could have broken the conventional pattern on
which our cities were constructed so long. At all events, it
was that catastrophe which started a crack in the antique
pattern first. In improvising for the needs of a desperate
emergency, the wrecked community had sense and energy enough
to follow the plain instincts of business, and put itself, as
a municipal corporation, under the kind of administration that
any other corporation would construct. All the folly of
localized interests in this and that part of the town,
requiring to be "represented" by ward aldermen, went out of
their heads. Their common calamity compelled them to
understand that particular interests within the narrow bounds
of a civic commonwealth are either included in or superseded
by the common interests of the whole. They acted accordingly;
 dismissed their locally representative aldermen, dropped their
old corps of administrative functionaries, and put the
undivided management of their affairs into the hands of five
commissioners, with a "mayor-president" at the head.

It would not seem to have needed much political wisdom to

predict the success of this experiment; but the quick effect
of its teaching was more than there could be reason to expect.
Houston, the near neighbor-city, was prompt to receive and
apply the lesson, but bettering it somewhat. For Houston
employed the whole time of its five business managers, paying
them fair salaries for the service; whereas Galveston
contented itself with less service and paid less.

The two examples then presented, of a municipal corporation

conducting its business in the plain mode and by the plain
methods of the commercial corporations, drew increasing
attention, in all parts of the country, west and east. Boston
was soon discussing the Galveston experiment with deep
interest, and at a meeting of the highly influential Economic
Club of that city, in January, 1907, President Eliot, of
Harvard University, declared that he saw in it the dawning of
a brighter day. "We have got down very low," he said, "in
regard to our municipal governments, and we have got dark days
here now, but we can see a light breaking, and one of the
lights broke in Galveston. I have personally been interested
in the enormous improvement in just one branch of municipal
business in our country within the last ten years—that is,
school boards and school administrations. There has been a
real wave of reform sweeping over the country, in the great
cities particularly, with regard to school boards, and every
bit of that experience goes the way I am describing it.
{434}
It is all in the direction of a few men not paid, originally
determining the general policy of the schools of the city and
trusting entirely to experts for executive action. Our whole
experience in Massachusetts with the commissions we have had,
tends the same way. If we ask what have been the best
performances of the governmental functions in Massachusetts
for the last twenty-five years, we have but one answer to
make, namely, the work of our commissions, water, sewage,
railroads, gas and electric lighting, public libraries where
owned by the city, hospitals where owned by the city. You can
think of numerous instances in Massachusetts where admirable
work has been done by commissions acting on the principles
which I have described. I say the day is dawning. What it
needs, that the light may grow and get to full noon, is that
the people, the great body of the people, should be convinced
that municipal government means nothing but good, intelligent
conduct of business."

Meantime, in the West, action was already following study of

the Galveston plan of city government, and the four states of
Iowa, Kansas, North Dakota, and South Dakota passed acts in
1907 to enable the adoption of it by any city so desiring. One
of the first to exercise the privilege was the city of Des
Moines, Iowa, certain of whose progressive young business men
had been studying the municipal problem of late, and who had
determined to bring some system of local government into
operation that would make their city what it ought to be. On
the basis of the Galveston plan they worked out the details of
a charter which has become the model of its species most
widely accepted, so that more has been heard latterly of "the
Des Moines Charter" than of "the Galveston Plan." What is
called the Des Moines charter, however, was no special
enactment for that city, but a legislative frame of municipal
government which any city in Iowa having not less than 25,000
inhabitants may fit itself into.

It confides the whole management of strictly local affairs in

the city to four councilmen and a mayor, all elected by the
voters of the city at large. It divides their administration
into five departments, namely:
The department of Public Affairs;
 The department of Accounts and Finances;
The department of Public Safety;
The department of Streets and Public Improvements;
The department of Parks and Public Property.

The mayor, by virtue of his office, is chairman of the

council. He is also superintendent of the department of public
affairs, and exercises a general supervision over the whole of
the city administration.

The council thus composed, with the mayor at its head, is

invested with all executive, legislative and judicial
authority, formerly exercised by perhaps twelve different
officers, and twelve different boards. It appoints the city
attorney, the city treasurer, the city auditor, the city
engineer; and, in fact, every other appointive official. It
makes every appropriation, and conducts the entire affairs of
the city. "At the first meeting of this council, immediately
following the election of its members, the work of the city is
assigned to its most appropriate department; to one of these
five departments. Each of the members of the council is also
named as superintendent of a particular department; the theory
of the law being that the man who is best qualified, by reason
of his experience and training, will be placed at the head of
that department where his training and experience will be of
most value. As superintendent of this department, he is held
strictly accountable for all matters which come within his
jurisdiction; he is also charged with responsibility for all
that is done or not done in his particular department." In the
nomination and election of this important council, no party
names are permitted to be connected with the candidates, in
any manner whatsoever. Each candidate for the office becomes
so by the filing of a petition with the city clerk, bearing
the signatures of not less than twenty-five citizens, who make
affidavit to the effect that the man is of good moral
character, of age, and qualified to fill the office. "Ten days
before the election is held, the city clerk takes the
petitions which have been filed and prepares the ballot. He
does this by arranging the names of candidates in alphabetical
order. The candidates for mayor are arranged under the heading
‘Mayor’; the candidates for councilmen are also arranged in
alphabetical order under the heading ‘Councilmen.’ There is no
party designation, and because of this alphabetical
arrangement there can be no favorite position on the ballot.
The result is, that the candidate comes before the whole
people of the city on his own merit, and on his own record."

As a citizen of Des Moines has described the proceeding,

"after the primary has been held the general election is
called, and in order to secure names for the ballot in the
general election, we take the two candidates who have received
the highest number of votes for mayor at the primary, and
place their names on the ballot. In order to secure the
councilmen, we take the eight candidates for councilmen who
have received the highest number of votes at the primary and
place their names on the regular election ballot. This gives
us two opportunities to weed out undesirable men. In the first
place, we have the choice among all candidates at the primary.
At the election, we have the choice of one of two men for
mayor, and the choice of four out of eight candidates for
councilmen."

A most important provision of this Iowa charter for cities has

to do with the civil service. "At the first meeting of the
city council, after the election of these five commissioners
or five councilmen--they are not commissioners—they appoint a
civil service board composed of three members, and this civil
service board, in whose charge is placed the work of preparing
a civil service examination, is appointed for a period of six
years. Thus they are removed from any influence that might be
exerted by the councilmen, who are only elected for two years.
This civil service commission prepares once a year an
examination for all employees of the city, with the exception
of unskilled labor and the heads of the departments, such as
 city attorney, city treasurer, city assessor, etc. (all of
whom are appointed by a majority vote of the council). Having
passed the examination successfully, the applicant is placed
in a position, and so long as his work is satisfactory and he
remains competent, he cannot be removed. He may be suspended,
but he cannot be removed, and he is entitled to a hearing
before the civil service board. This provision at once takes
away all chance of a machine being built up through
patronage."

{435}

This is a sufficient description of the official frame of

government that has been instituted at Des Moines and other
cities of Iowa under a general law of that State. The law goes
farther, and connects with this frame or system a
supplementary provision of methods for giving the whole body
of the people an immediate agency in municipal legislation and
a power to recall their election of any elected official
during his term. By the use of the Swiss process of
"initiative," a sufficient number of voters (25 per cent. of
the whole) can propose measures which the Council must either
adopt or else submit to the general vote, and can suspend
measures adopted by the council until the general body of
citizens has voted for or against them. These features, of the
initiative, the referendum and the recall, are no more
essential attachments to the Des Moines or Iowa form of
municipal organization than to any other. To what extent the
States and cities making trial of the general features of the
Galveston scheme of municipal organization have followed Iowa
in making the Swiss additions to it, information at present is
wanting. Apparently the Des Moines pattern is having wide
acceptance.

In the fall of 1909 the towns in the United States which had
adopted the so-called Des Moines plan of government were
reported to number 12 in Texas, 7 in Kansas, 6 in Iowa, 3 in
 Massachusetts, 3 in California, 2 in Colorado, 2 in Missouri,
2 in Tennessee, 1 in West Virginia, 1 in Mississippi, 1 in
North Dakota, 1 in South Dakota, being 42 in all. Movements
looking to the introduction of the same system were on foot in
other cities. At the November election a draft of charter on
the lines of the Des Moines plan was submitted to popular vote
in the city of Buffalo, New York, and approved by 8848
electors, out of a total of 11,346 who expressed themselves on
the subject. The total vote, however, was only about one-sixth
of that cast for candidates at the election. On the strength
of the opinion expressed, the Legislature is now being asked
to enact the charter. Should it do so, the form of government
will have trial in the largest city that has yet introduced
it.

MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT: London, England:

Defeat of the Progressives in the County and Borough Elections.

See (in this Volume)

LONDON: A. D. 1907-1909.

MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT: Los Angeles, California:

Experiments and Experiences.

Since 1900, Los Angeles, California, has been going through

some interesting experiences, due to a series of charter
amendments. The former charter of the city had been of the
common pattern, organizing the municipal government under a
mayor and a board of aldermen elected by wards. The amendments
of recent years have created a Board of Public Works, with large
powers in the management of municipal work; have changed the
Board of Education from a body of nine members elected by
wards to a membership of seven chosen from the city at large;
have provided an elaborate system of municipal civil service
regulation; and finally have provided for a complete system of
popular initiative and referendum in municipal legislation,
and for recall of elective officers. Popular initiative in
 legislation is made possible upon the demand by petition of 15
per cent of the voters, estimated upon the total vote for
mayor at the preceding municipal election; referendum in
ordinary legislation is required upon a petition of 7 per cent
of the voters; a recall election must be ordered upon the
demand of 25 per cent of the voters concerned in the filling
of the office. The official whom the petition seeks to remove
is made a candidate for reflection without other nomination,
unless in writing he notifies the city clerk that he is not a
candidate.

The recall methods, provided for in charter amendments of

1903, have been put into actual service; first, in 1906, when
a councilman was replaced by vote of the Ward, and again in
February, 1909, when a recall election was ordered for the
office of mayor. The proceedings in this case attracted
widespread attention and interest throughout the country. They
failed, however, to afford a perfect test of recall methods
for the reason that after the election had been ordered but
before the date had arrived the mayor in office resigned, thus
surrendering without a struggle to the opponents who had
sought his removal.

MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT: Michigan:

Home Rule for Cities.

The lately revised Constitution of Michigan authorizes cities

and villages to frame, adopt and amend their charters, and to
pass laws and ordinances in regard to their municipal
concerns. Under this improved Constitution, the Michigan
Legislature of 1909 adopted the necessary legislation for the
formulation of action and for the limitation of taxes and
debts. The following, from the New York Evening Post,
is a summary of the more important provisions of the Act:
"Charters of new cities will be framed by a commission of nine
electors chosen by popular vote. Revised charters of existing
cities will be framed, after a vote of the electors in favor
 of revision (submitted by a two-thirds vote of the local
legislative body or on an initiatory petition of twenty per
cent. of the total vote cast for Mayor), by an elected
commission of one member from each ward and three electors at
large. Candidates for charter commissioners are to be placed
on the ballot without party affiliations designated. Charter
amendments may be proposed by a two-thirds vote of the local
legislative body, or by an initiatory petition of twenty per
cent. of the vote for Mayor.

"Every charter and charter amendment, before submission to the

electors, must be submitted to the Governor of the State, but
if disapproved by him, and passed on reconsideration by a
two-thirds vote of the Charter Commission or local legislative
body, shall be submitted to the electors. Copies of charters
and charter amendments approved by the electors of the city
shall be certified to the secretary of state, and shall
thereupon become a law.

"The law names certain things which each city charter shall
provide, and imposes certain restrictions on the powers of
cities. There must be an elected Mayor and a body vested with
legislative power; the clerk, treasurer, and assessors, and
other officers may be elected or appointed. This permits the
establishment of a commission system, or of a Mayor and
council with distinct powers. Provision must be made for the
levy, collection, and return of State, county, and school
taxes, for annual appropriations for municipal purposes, and
for a system of accounts.

{436}

"Provision may be made for municipal taxes and for borrowing

money up to prescribed limits, for the regulation of trades,
occupations, and amusements, for the purchase of franchises,
for a plan of streets within three miles beyond the city
limits, 'for a system of civil service,' for the referendum,
 and the following omnibus clause: for the exercise of all
municipal powers in the management and control of municipal
property and in the administration of the municipal
government, whether such powers be expressly enumerated or
not; for any act to advance the interests of the city, the
good government and prosperity of the municipality and its
inhabitants, and through its regularly constituted authority,
to pass all laws and ordinances relating to its municipal
concerns, subject to the Constitution and general laws of the
State.

"Limitations include the following: Existing limits to the tax

rate and borrowing powers to remain until a change is
authorized by vote of the electors, with a maximum limit of 2
per cent. of the assessed valuation for the tax rate and 8 per
cent. for loans; but, as authorized by the Constitution, bonds
may be issued beyond this limit for public utilities, when
secured only upon the property and revenues of the utility. A
sinking fund must be provided for bonds. A charter or charter
amendment may not be submitted oftener than once in two years.
The salary of public officials may not be changed after
election or appointment. Certain municipal property may only
be sold or vacated when approved by three-fifths of the
electors voting thereon.

"A separate act was passed for villages. This follows the main
features of the law for cities, but is briefer."

MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT: New York City: A. D. 1901-1909.

The Municipal Elections of 1901, 1903, 1905, and 1909.

See (in this Volume)

NEW YORK CITY.

MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT: New York City: A. D. 1905-1909.

The Working of the Bureau of Municipal Research.
The Bureau of Municipal Research, instituted in New York City
by an organization of citizens in 1905, has proved to be as
effective an agency as has ever been employed for the
straightening of crookedness and the correcting of negligence
in the conduct of municipal affairs. Its working is described
fully in an article which appeared in the Atlantic
Monthly of October, 1908, by the head of the Bureau, Dr.
William H. Allen, under the title, "A National Fund for
Efficient Democracy." What the writer aims to do, and does
most effectively, is, first, to show how inefficient our
democracy is in its practical working, how demoralizing that
inefficiency is, how feebly education and religion are
struggling against its demoralizations, so long as they do not
work to make government efficient; and then he unfolds the
remedy indicated in results obtained already from the public
enlightenment—the citizen education—which the Bureau of
Municipal Research is developing in New York. His final
purpose is to plead for the great national fund that would
establish a central foundation for the extending and
organizing of similar educational work throughout the country
at large.

The simple object of the New York Bureau of Municipal Research

has been to make and to keep the public acquainted with the
working of things in its government; to make and keep it
attentive to the facts of efficiency or inefficiency in that
working, which proves to be the kind of political education
that bears the most practical fruits. The aim of the bureau,
says Dr. Allen, has been "educative, not detective. Infinitely
more interested in pointing out what is needed than what is
wrong, it realizes that the great problem of democracy is not
the control of the officer, but the education of the citizen.
It began, not by laying down principles of government or
discussing men, but by studying the needs of the community and
its official acts. It would educate democracy in facts about
democracy’s acts and methods, democracy’s need, and
democracy’s opportunity." Something of the results achieved is
 set forth in the following passage:

"Three years, $150,000, and scientific method, have

accomplished results surpassing all dreams of those who
outlined its programme. So convincing are these results that
onlookers who said three years ago, ‘The tiger will never
change its stripes,’ are now saying, ‘You could hardly do this
in cities where the tiger marks are less obvious.’ Although
many phases of municipal administration have not yet been
studied, there is hardly an obstacle to efficiency and honesty
that has not been encountered and overcome by light. The
real-estate bureau that eluded all graft charges is being
reorganized to prevent either graft or one hundred per cent.
profits for land sold the city at private sale. While its own
staff, consisting of three investigators in 1907 and 40 in the
summer of 1908, can of itself do no inconsiderable educational
work, the bureau gauges its effectiveness, not by what its own
staff accomplishes, but by what the city’s staff of 70,000,
and through them the city’s population of 4,000,000, are
enabled to accomplish because of its educational effort.

"Methods that manufacture corruption and inefficiency, and

that for 50 years defied political reform, are giving way to
methods by which 70,000 employees must tell the truth about
what they do when they do it, about what they spend when they
spend it, in clear, legible form. … Tammany officials, when
interested, make excellent collaborators. The commissioners of
accounts, for 30 years, through reform and Tammany
administrations alike, a whitewashing body that condoned and
glossed over wasteful and corrupt acts, have become, as a
direct result of the bureau’s work, a great educational
agency."

MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT: New York City: A. D. 1909.

Proposed New Charter, not acted on in the Legislature.

A Commission appointed for the purpose by Governor Hughes,

 after long and careful study of the subject of a new charter
for Greater New York, reported in March, 1909, submitting a
recommended draft, which was submitted to the Legislature then
in session, but obtained no action from that body before its
adjournment. The ruling principle in the work of the
Commission had been that of reducing the number of elected
administrative officers, of putting into separate hands the
power to appropriate and the power to spend money, and of
concentrating power and responsibility in a few.
{437}
As originally organized, the "Greater New York" City is
divided into five boroughs. At the head of each borough is a
Borough President, who has charge of the streets and the
public buildings within the borough. There is also a Board of
Estimate and Apportionment, consisting of the Mayor,
Comptroller, the President of the Board of Aldermen, and the
Borough Presidents. There is also a Board of Aldermen. The
Commissioners proposed that the Borough Presidents shall cease
to have administrative functions and shall devote their
attention exclusively to the great financial work of the Board
of Estimate and Apportionment; that the administrative work be
given to heads of departments responsible to the Mayor, and to
bureaus, some of them under the Board of Estimate and
Apportionment and some under the various departments; and that
the Board of Aldermen be supplanted by a Council of
thirty-nine members to serve without pay; to have enlarged
legislative powers, but none connected with the grant
franchises, which the Board of Estimate and Apportionment
should control. A new Department of Street Control was
proposed, to take over all street work, abolishing the
Street-Cleaning Department.

MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT: Philadelphia: A. D. 1905.

A Temporary House Cleaning of the Municipality.
Mayor Weaver’s Conversion.

"Philadelphia has reformed. It is the swiftest and most

thorough municipal revolution known in American civic annals.
Without an election and without primaries, without warning and
without preparation, the great deep of small
householders,—which is Philadelphia,—moved from below. When
the work was over, Mayor Weaver, who led the revolution, had
not only changed the heads of the two executive departments,
with ten thousand employees, but he was in full control of
City Councils; he was recognized as the head of the city
Republican party organization; he had forced the city
Republican committee to withdraw the local ticket already
nominated and await the choice of another ticket by the reform
leaders; he had begun criminal prosecution, stopped work on
contracts for filtration plants, boulevards, and highways
amounting to some twelve million dollars, beginning a
searching investigation by a board of expert engineers, and
had defeated two grabs, one a contract for seventy-five years
in gas and the other a street-car grab of one hundred and ten
miles of streets, sought by the two local public-service
corporations, the United Gas Improvement Company and the
Philadelphia Rapid Transit Company. Both had been successfully
passed before this revolution broke, and both were recalled,
on the demand of the mayor, by the same councils that had
passed them.

"The coherent homogeneous vote of the myriads of small homes

which make up Philadelphia has made this sweeping victory
possible against great odds. The party majority in
Pennsylvania and Philadelphia is the strongest in the country.
The city machine is as well organized as Tammany Hall. It
holds city, State, and federal patronage. For ten years it has
without challenge chosen the executive officers at Harrisburg
and Philadelphia and held the Legislature and Councils. The
city ring, in a decade of unchecked rule, has issued
$40,000,000 of city bonds; let on the filtration plant alone
$13,660,000 of contracts; as much more on various public
improvements, and had pending work authorized, but not let,
costing about $30,000,000. The criminal investigation already
made indicates that on the filtration-plant contracts alone
the margin of loose profit is from 28 to 30 per cent. In this
period the city gas works have been leased for a term ending
in 1927, on provisions which yield $2,000,000 a year, twice
the expected profit to the lessee, the United Gas Improvement
Company. The other public-service corporation, the
Philadelphia Rapid Transit Company, has had a free gift of a
subway and over two hundred miles of street without payment
and without limitation. The combination, under an antiquated
law which threw no safeguards about the ballot of a venal vote
controlled by machine office-holders of the great
corporations, railroad and public-service, and of a corrupt
combination of contractors and politicians, seemed omnipotent.
By the adroit use of State and city appropriations for private
charities and educational institutions, the respectable were
placated. The leaders of this organization were also wise
enough to meet reforms non-political halfway. The last State
legislature passed excellent sanitary legislation, reorganized
on sound lines the city schools of Philadelphia, passed
efficient child-labor laws, and at many points improved State
legislation. Carefully separating political management and
elected officers, the leaders of the machine chose judicial
candidates usually unexceptionable, and elected as governor of
the State and mayor of Philadelphia men honest, dull, highly
respected, without stain but pliant.

"In April, so far as Philadelphia was concerned,

self-government seemed to have disappeared. Its charter was
amended, in the teeth of universal protest, so as to rob
future mayors of all powers. Senator Boies Penrose and
Insurance Commissioner Israel W. Durham made all nominations,
State and city. The former awaits investigation. Durham has
been shown to be a silent and secret partner in a contracting
firm holding $13,660,000 of contracts, under city ordinances
he passed, led by officers he chose, and yielding some 30 per
cent. profit. In Pennsylvania and Philadelphia, the
corporation pays the machine and the machine aids the
 corporation. It is like this in other States, but preeminently
in that founded by Penn. After a long series of like gifts and
franchises, councils voted the Rapid Transit Company one
hundred and ten miles of streets, passed a costly boulevard
system, and in return for $25,000,000 intended for more
contracts proposed to lease the city gas works for
seventy-five years, postponing reduction in the price of gas
for three-quarters of a century.

"This ran the pliant fingers of the machine into the pockets
of every householder who had a gas bill to pay, some two
hundred and eighty thousand in number. Suddenly this great
mass moved from within. The pulpit of small churches knew it
before the press, the little division leaders before the ward
managers, and they before the chiefs of the organization. In a
week, the city seethed. Children of councilmen came crying
from the public schools. No one would play with them. Callous,
thick-skinned politicians found their mail, their telephones,
and their daily tours one hot rain of protest from their old
neighbors. Division leaders reported defection by the
avalanche.
{438}
The small householder, the narrow burgher, comfortable,
contented, owning his house, careless over ideals, education,
corruption, and venal voter, was aflame over a bigger gas
bill. It is the old story of ship money and stamp taxes. No
vote was necessary. No primary was needed. The leaders of a
political machine are ignorant of much, but they know the
voice of the voter in the land. John Weaver, the mayor, chosen
by the machine, and its lifelong friend and supporter, had
been a fair case lawyer and district attorney. Honest, narrow,
clean-lived, of a legal mind, restive at the way he was
treated as a mere figurehead, he recognized the civic
revolution because he was himself of the class that had risen.
He had, moreover, in his day won his division and was a ward
leader."
 American Review of Reviews,
July, 1905.

The Israel W. Durham referred to above, who was the absolute

"boss" of Philadelphia from 1896 to 1905, died on the 28th of
June, 1909.

See, also,
PENNSYLVANIA: A. D. 1906.

MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT: A. D. 1909.

The old Evil Conditions revived.
Defeat of Revolt against them.

The old mastery of the City Government by an all-powerful and

shameless political "machine" was recovered at the end of the
term of Mayor Weaver, and conditions were soon as rotten as
before the momentary and partial cleansing had been performed.
In 1909 a hopeful revolt against them was undertaken, under
the lead of D. Clarence Gibboney a young lawyer who as
secretary of an active "Law and Order Society," had shown
inspiring powers of leadership and high qualities of sincerity
and resolution. Gibboney had been put forward for District
Attorney in 1906 on Democratic and Independent tickets, and
had suffered defeat. Now he was brought again to the front,
for that office, from which the plunderers of the city could
be most advantageously attacked. A William Penn Party had been
organized in the interest of reform, and his nomination by
this was endorsed by the Democratic organization. A great
effort was made to rouse the conscience and the self-respect
of the city, to throw off the thraldom of blind partisanship
under which it submits to be corrupted and robbed. But the
effort failed. Gibboney was rejected by a majority of about
40,000 voters.

MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT: Pittsburg:

Achievements of a Reforming Mayor.
George W. Guthrie became Mayor of Pittsburg in 1906. "When
Mayor Guthrie went into office there was no merit system in
Pittsburg; but he soon established an effective one of his
own, and at the 1907 session of the Pennsylvania Legislature
effectively co-operated with the Pennsylvania Civil Service
Reform Association and similar bodies, with Mayor Dimmick, of
Scranton, and the business bodies of second-class cities, to
secure a law which would permanently establish the merit
system in them. He and his colleagues succeeded. A short time
ago some one asked the Mayor how many Democrats he had
appointed to office. His immediate reply was, 'I haven’t the
least idea. The question of party has never entered into the
matter.’ …

"The tax levied in February, 1906, before Mayor Guthrie

assumed office, was 15 mills. That levied in February, 1907,
the first under his administration, was 12½ mills. This year,
had it not been for the annexation of Allegheny, the city
would have required only 10 or 10½ mills. The Mayor’s first
estimate was 11 mills; but the final figures, as made up by
the Finance Committee, showed that the lower figure would have
been sufficient. When the Mayor entered office, there was a
cash deficit of $400,000, caused by the payment of bills left
over from the previous administration. He closed his first
year with a small surplus, and the second (1907) with a large
one. The total tax valuation of the old city of Pittsburg is
$599,852,923. Its total bonded indebtedness is $24,956,001,
and its net indebtedness (arrived at by deducting bonds in the
saving fund) is $16,532,425, or .0275 per cent of the
valuation. This highly desirable financial result, however,
has not been reached by any false economy. Inadequate salaries
have been raised. All the street repairing for 1907 was paid
for out of the tax levy, and the work on the filtration plant
has been pushed unceasingly. Enough of the filter beds are
finished to provide for present needs, and as soon as they are
‘ripened’ and the pumping machinery rearranged the city will
have filtered water. …

"For many years, under the old regime, Pittsburg had been free
from many of the evils of an open city; but a syndicate of
Councilmen and politicians had made immense sums out of the
business. They controlled the leases of the houses, which they
sublet at exorbitant sums. They also controlled the supplies
which were furnished to them. The Mayor issued but one order
for the regulation of this district. He made no attempt to
solve the entire problem. As the law was plain about the sale
of liquor, he declared that that must stop absolutely; and
that no house could be run on streets on which there were
surface cars. This order proved to be the death-blow of the
combination that had previously existed. The politicians, when
they heard the order, laughed. They had fooled every other
Mayor, and they thought they could fool Guthrie. He would need
Councils and must necessarily ‘deal’ with them. But he needed
no one, and he ‘dealt’ with no one. He waited six weeks for
his warning to be taken, and then he acted. One Saturday night
the police drew a net around the district, and over one
thousand arrests were made. Then came the final blow that
stopped political interference. Under the old system police
magistrates had been in the habit of holding fines or delaying
sentences, which, under the pressure of political influence,
were remitted or suspended. Such money as was paid in was held
for a month before being turned over to the city treasury. …
Mr. Guthrie established the rule that all fines and jail
sentences, once imposed, would have to stand unless revoked by
the county courts. Not only have the revenues of the city
largely increased by this policy, as we have already seen, but
one of the greatest sources of political evil has been
removed. Since this policy was inaugurated there has been no
political or machine interference in the administration of the
law. Incidentally, I may mention that one Councilman went to
jail for his complicity with the protection of the social
evil.