14.384: Time Series Analysis.

Bank of sample problems for 14.384 Time series

Disclaimer. The problems below do not constitute the full set of problems given as
homework assignments for the course. Some of the problems are well-known folklore,
some were inspired by the problem sets given at different times at Harvard, Upenn and
Duke. I am thankful to Jim Stock, Frank Schorfheide and Barbara Rossi for giving
me access to their course materials.

1. Transforming AR(p) to MA. If a p -order autoregressive process φ(L)yt = εt is

stationary, with moving average representation yt = ψ(L)εt , show that
p
�
0= φj ψk−j = φ(L)ψk , k = p, p + 1, . . .
j=0

i.e., show that the moving average coefficients satisfy the autoregressive differ­
ence equation.

2. Sims’ formula for spectrum. Assume that we have a sample {yt , xt }Tt=1 from in­
�
finite distributed lag model yt = B(L)xt +et , B(L) = ∞ j
j=1 bj L with absolutely
�
summable coefficients |bj | < ∞ (here et is a white-noise, xt is stationary and
weakly exogenous). Assume that one estimates (misspecified) model with q lags,
that is, he regresses yt on to xt−1 , ..., xt−q−1 and obtains Þ
a1 , ..., Þ
aq . As the sam­
ple size increases to infinity (but q is kept constant), the estimated coefficients
p
aj → aj . Let A(L) = a1 L + ... + ap Lp .
converge to some non-random limits: Þ
Show that A(·) is a solution to the following problem:
� π
1 � � � �
min A(e−iω ) − B(e−iω ) SX (ω) A(eiω ) − B(eiω ) ,
a1 ,...,aq 2π −π

where SX (·) is the spectrum of the process xt . That is, one minimizes the
quadratic form in the differences between true and estimated polynomial, as­
signing the greatest weights to the frequencies for which spectral density is the
greatest.

1
3. Spectrum and filters. This is your first empirical problem. Choose a software
package you feel comfortable using (I would recommend MatLab).You may use
any users-written codes you find on Internet. Always make sure that the code
is doing what you think it is doing. Please, do not forget to cite whatever you
are using.
(i) Download quarterly values of Real GDP for the US from Mark W. Watson
personal web-site (you may use any other aggregate macro time series from
any other source if you wish. Economic Database (FRED II) maintained
by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is a fantastic source ).

(ii) Define the growth rate for real GDP. Estimate and plot spectrum for the
growth rate. Discuss the graph. Find which peak in the spectrum corre­
sponds to business cycles.

(iii) Use the following three cycle removing devices: a) run the OLS to detrend
the series ; b) use Prescott-Hodrick filter; c) apply Baxter-King filter.

(iv) Re-estimate spectrum for all series after applying each of the three proce­
dures. Draw spectrum functions. Discuss the differences.

Note. As in real life empirical research, you will need to make a lot of
choices while performing the task, such as choosing lag length, kernel func­
tion, and so on. Try to be reasonable, always check whether you results
are sensitive to these choices. Also check original papers for suggestions.

4. Factor model and Principle components. Let X = (Xit )i=1,...,N,t=1,...,T is T × N

matrix of observations. The matrices Λ(N ×k) and F (T ×k) are both unknown.

Factor model could be written as an N -dimension time series with T observa­

tions:
Xt = ΛFt + et ,
where Xt = (X1t , X2t , ..., XN t )� , Λ = (λ1 , ..., λN )� and et = (e1t , e2t , ..., eN t )� .
Alternatively, it can be written as a T -dimension system with N observations:

Xi = F λi + ei ,
where Xi = (Xi1 , ..., XiT )� , F = (F1 , ..., FT )� , and ei = (ei1 , ..., eiT )� .

The method of principle components minimizes

N �
� T
1 (Xit − λ�i Ft )2
V (k) = min
Λ,F N T
i=1 t=1

(a) Write down the first order condition for minimization over Λ. Concentrate
out Λ.

2
 (b) Assume the normalization F � F/T = Ik . Show that minimization problem
is equivalent to maximizing trace of F � (XX � )F .

(c) Argue that F consists of the linear subspace containing k eigenvector cor­
responding to the k largest eigenvalues.

(d) What are the estimates of factor loadings and common component?

5. Subsampling with of nearly unit root process. Assume that you have a sample

{x1 , ..., xT } of size T from an AR(1) process with the autoregressive coefficient
0 < ρ ≤ 1. The goal is to construct an asymptotic confidence set for ρ. Sub-
sampling ( Romano and Wolf, Econometrica 2001) is the following procedure.

Þρ2Þ.
Step 1. Regress xt on its lag and calculate the OLS estimate of ρÞ and variance σ

Step 2 Choose a subsample size bT < T and let b be an index changing be­
tween 1 and T − bT . For each value of b consider a subsample Zb =
{xb , xb+1 , ..., xb+bT } of the size bT from the initial sample. For each block
ρÞb −ρÞ
Zb run OLS regression to get the t-statistics, tb = ÞρÞb
σ
.

Step 3 Order statistics {tb }Tb=1

−bT
in ascending order and get α/2 and 1 − α/2
quantiles (q1 and q2 ) of this distribution. The confidence set for ρ is C(x) =
[ρÞ − q2 σ
ÞρÞ, ρÞ − q1 σ
ÞρÞ].

The purpose of this problem is to understand the asymptotic coverage of the

ρÞ−ρ0
described procedure. Let t(T, ρ0 ) = σ
ÞρÞ
be the t-statistics for testing H0 :
ρ = ρ0 with the full sample. The described procedure uses an approximation of
unknown distribution of t(T, ρ0 ) by the distribution of t-statistic in subsample
ρÞb −ρÞ
tb (bT ) = σ
ÞρÞb
, here ρÞb is calculated for a subsample of size bT , and ρÞ - for the
whole sample. The distribution of tb (bT ) could be simulated (it is done in Step
3). Assume known that simulated in Step 3 distribution (quantiles) of tb (bT )
are uniformly close(converge) to the theoretical distribution(quantiles) of tb (bT ).
Assume that bT → ∞ and bT /T → 0 as T → ∞.

(a) Let the true value 0 < ρ0 < 1 be fixed while T → ∞. What is the

3
 limiting distribution of t(T, ρ0 )? What is the limiting distribution of tb (bT )?
Calculate the limiting coverage limT →∞ Pρ0 {ρ0 ∈ C(x)}.

(b) Now assume that we have a unit root, that is, ρ0 = 1. What is the limiting
distribution of t(T, ρ0 = 1)? What is the limiting distribution of tb (bT )?
Calculate the limiting coverage limT →∞ Pρ0 =1 {1 ∈ C(x)}.

For the next steps use the following statement. Assume that ρT = 1 + cT /T .
�1
w(t)dw(t)
• If cT → 0 as T → ∞, then t(T, ρT ) ⇒ √0 � 1 2 .
0 w (t)dt

• If cT → −∞ as T → ∞, then t(T, ρT ) ⇒ N (0, 1).

(c) Let ρT = 1 + c/T, c < 0. What is the limiting distribution of t(T, ρT )?

What is the limiting distribution of tb (bT )? What can you say about the
limiting coverage limT →∞ PρT {ρT ∈ C(x)}? What is the intuition of your
result?

(d) Let ρT = 1 + c/bT , c < 0. What is the limiting distribution of t(T, ρT )?

What is the limiting distribution of tb (bT )? What can you say about the
limiting coverage limT →∞ PρT {ρT ∈ C(x)}? What is the intuition of your
result?

(e) Is the subsampling interval uniformly asymptotically correct? Explain.

6. Empirical exercise. PPP puzzle. Purchasing power parity (PPP) is “an em­

pirical proposition that, once converted to a common currency, national price

levels should be equal” (Rogoff, 1996). Even though almost no one believes in
absolute PPP, most think that the real exchange rate tend toward PPP in the
very long run. Main puzzle, however, is that the speed of convergence (mea­
sured as a half-life of a shock and estimated to be between three to five years)
is too slow to be explained by nominal rigidities.

This exercise is aimed to answer two questions: 1) is there any long-run conver­
gence of PPP ( rephrase: does real exchange rate possess a unit root); 2) what
is the half-life of real exchange rate?

4
 Take any currency and calculate a time series for log of real exchange rate
(exchange rates and CPI for various countries provided on the course webpage).
I call it xt .

(a) Test whether xt has a unit root. Use augmented Dickey-Fuller (with lag
length chosen according BIC) and Phillips-Perron test. Do this in two
versions: including constant and including a linear trend. Do the data
show evidence of a unit root?

(b) Use Stock (Journal of Monetary Economics, 1991) method to construct

a confidence interval for the local to unity parameter. Assume that xt is
AR(1) with a constant and use local to unity approximation for t-statistic.
Tables are reported in Stock(1991).

(c) Assume that xt = c + ρxt−1 + et . The half-life is defined as a time needed

− log 2
for half of the shock to die. That is half-life = log ρ
. Transform the
confidence set you received in (b) to a confidence interval for the half-life
of deviations from PPP. How persistent are the shocks?

7. Simulated GMM. Suppose we wish to estimate an MA(2) process

yt = µ + et + θ1 et−1 + θ2 et−2

where the et are iid N (0, σ 2 ) random variables. Although estimation is possible
using ML, explain how you could estimate the parameters of the model using
indirect inference. Also indicate how the models specification can be tested
using indirect inference.

8. Kalman filter of a long-run trend. Consider a model of a constant long-run

trend
αt = αt−1 , yt = αt + vt , vt ∼ i.i.d.N (0, σ 2 ).

(a) Write down Kalman filter for the model with starting values α1|0 = a and
P0|1 = p0 , then
p0
Pt|t = .
1 + tp0 /σ 2

5
 Show also that the contribution of each additional observation to αT |T is
negligible as T increases.

(b) Show that as time horizon increases Kalman filter converges to a value
independent of a and p0 . What is this value?

(c) What is the value of αT |T if we have uninformative prior p0 → ∞?

Readings:
Christiano, Eichenbaum and Vigfusson (2004) “What happens after a technology
shock?” unpublished manuscript.
Gali “ Technology, Employment and the Business Cycle: Do technology shocks
explain aggregate fluctuations?”, AER 1999.
Romano J.P. and Wolf M.(2001): ”Subsampling Intervals in Autoregressive Mod­
els with Linear Time Trend,” Econometrica, 69(5), 1283-1314.
Stock, J. (1991). ”Confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root in US
macroeconomic time series,” Journal of Monetary Economics 28, 435-459.

6
MIT OpenCourseWare
http://ocw.mit.edu

14.384 Time Series Analysis

Fall 2013

For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms.