‭Enviromental Systems & Societies - Internal Assessment‬

‭ esearch Question: To what extent has growing‬

R
‭urbanization rates affected air quality in Delhi,‬
‭India from 2015-2020?‬

‭Word count: 2189‬

‭Personal code: lgs857‬
‭Introduction‬
‭Global Context‬
‭Across the world, cities are expanding at unprecedented rates due to industrial growth,‬
‭employment opportunities, and the migration of people from rural to urban areas. According to the United‬
‭Nations, over 55% of the global population now lives in urban areas, a number projected to reach 68% by‬
‭2050. This urban growth brings both opportunities and challenges, one of the most critical being‬
‭environmental degradation, particularly air pollution. Cities like Beijing, Mexico City, and São Paulo‬
‭have all faced similar issues, with industrial activities and vehicle emissions driving poor air quality and‬
‭raising public health concerns. The consequences of unchecked urbanization are not only felt locally but‬
‭also contribute to global challenges, including climate change and increased mortality rates due to‬
‭pollution-related diseases. Thus, understanding the relationship between urbanization and air quality is‬
‭crucial to addressing the broader implications for sustainable development worldwide.‬

‭Local Context and Hypothesis‬

‭New Delhi, the capital of India, is witnessing one of the most rapid urban expansions in the‬
‭world. Delhi, the city and union territory that includes New Delhi, is now one of the largest metropolitan‬
‭areas globally and the second-largest in India, driven by its rich mineral resources and robust‬
‭manufacturing sector. With a population density of 11,297 people per square kilometer, Delhi is the most‬
‭densely populated area in the country. Unfortunately, it also suffers from the worst air quality in India,‬
‭with health experts stating that breathing the city's polluted air is equivalent to smoking 10 cigarettes a‬
‭day. The root cause of this pollution can be traced to the very factors fueling its urbanization, particularly‬
‭industrialization‬‭. As a major manufacturing hub, Delhi‬‭requires a large workforce, leading to a massive‬
‭population influx and the development of extensive infrastructure, much of which revolves around‬
‭factories that burn fossil fuels and‬‭release pollutants‬‭into the air. Additionally, the number of vehicles in‬
‭Delhi is extremely high, as they are the main mode of transportation for the expanding workforce. This‬
‭heavy reliance on vehicles further worsens the air pollution situation.‬

‭All in all, Delhi's air quality problem may be directly attributed to the enormous urban rates it‬
h‭ ouses. According to Ildefons Cerdà General Theory of Urbanization, urbanization is an inevitable‬
‭outcome of industrialization, economic growth and prosperity, and, considering Delhi's current‬
‭socioeconomic status, it very well fits into this category. Such factors leads me into making the following‬
‭operational‬‭hypothesis‬‭: Increasing urbanization rates‬‭is directly related to decrease of air quality in Delhi.‬
‭This investigation will analyze empirical data from 2015 to 2020 on both urbanization and air quality,‬
‭aiming to find a positive correlation between the two variables and offer insights into how rapid urban‬
‭growth, a global phenomenon, can adversely affect air quality.‬

‭Variables‬

‭Type‬ ‭Name‬ ‭Justification‬

‭Dependent‬ ‭PM2.5‬‭in Delhi‬ ‭Annual particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration‬

 ‭ easures the amount of fine particulate pollution‬
m
‭present in the air. These microscopic particles can‬
‭penetrate deep into the respiratory system, leading‬
‭to serious‬‭health issues‬‭such as asthma, lung‬
‭disease, and heart conditions. Elevated PM2.5‬
‭levels also reduce‬‭air visibility‬‭, affecting the‬
‭environment and overall air quality.‬

‭Dependent‬ ‭NOx‬‭in Delhi‬ ‭ itrogen oxides (NOx) are harmful gases‬

N
‭primarily generated through combustion‬
‭processes, such as vehicle fuel burning and fossil‬
‭fuel combustion in power plants. NOx includes‬
‭two key gases: nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen‬
‭dioxide (NO2). These pollutants contribute to‬
‭smog formation‬‭,‬‭acid rain‬‭, and various‬
‭respiratory problems‬‭in humans.‬

‭Dependent‬ ‭SO2‬‭in Delhi‬ ‭ ulfur dioxide (SO2) is a toxic gas released‬

S
‭during the combustion of fossil fuels and the‬
‭smelting of mineral ores. High concentrations of‬
‭SO2 in the air are associated with increased risks‬
‭of‬‭respiratory and cardiovascular diseases‬‭, as‬
‭well as‬‭environmental degradation‬‭, including‬
‭acid rain formation.‬

‭Independent‬ ‭ rbanization rates in‬

U ‭ etric for analyzing the cause-and-effect‬
M
‭Delhi‬ ‭relationship between various environmental and‬
‭socio-economic factors.‬

‭Independent‬ I‭ ndia Urban population‬ ‭ valuate urbanization rates on a larger scale and‬
E
‭index‬ ‭establish connections between urbanization trends‬
‭and their environmental impacts.‬

‭Controlled‬ ‭Time period: 2015-2020‬ ‭To set a clear parameter for the research‬

‭Justification for method‬

‭By testing a wide variety of weather data (PM2.5, NOx, SO2) the results will display a broader‬
‭range of how different chemicals can affect the air quality. Note that such tests were specifically chosen to‬
‭display how urbanization, characterized by increased industrial activity and vehicle emissions, impact air‬
‭quality in Delhi. Other air quality indicators may not provide relevant insights into the research question.‬
‭The chosen time period is intended to yield specific and recent perspectives on this pressing‬
‭environmental issue.‬

‭Apparatus‬
‭●‬ ‭Delhi, India Metro Area Population 1950-2024 by United Nations World Population Prospects at‬
‭https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/21228/delhi/population#:~:text=The%20curren‬
‭t%20metro%20area%20population,a%202.84%25%20increase%20from%202021.‬
 ‭●‬ I‭ ndia Urban Population 1960-2024 by World Bank at‬
‭https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/IND/india/urban-population#:~:text=India‬
‭%20urban%20population%20for%202022,a%202.34%25%20increase%20from%202018.‬
‭●‬ ‭Air Quality Index data set from multiple cities in India by the Central Pollution Control Board‬
‭from 2015-2020 at‬
‭https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/rohanrao/air-quality-data-in-india?resource=download‬‭.‬

‭Method‬
‭●‬ ‭The AQI data for multiple cities in India from 2015-2020 was downloaded from the Central‬
‭Pollution Control Board (CPCB) website. This dataset included various air quality parameters for‬
‭multiple cities, including Delhi.‬
‭●‬ ‭To focus exclusively on Delhi's data, all entries from other cities were excluded using a filter.‬
‭●‬ ‭A machine learning model was employed to identify and exclude rows with incomplete data for‬
‭any of the key air quality parameters (PM2.5, NOx, SO2) in Delhi's dataset. Incomplete rows‬
‭were defined as those missing one or more of these variables.‬
‭●‬ ‭After the deletion of incomplete data rows, a clean dataset consisting of 10,331 rows remained,‬
‭covering AQI data for Delhi from 2015-2020.‬
‭●‬ ‭To simplify the analysis, the mean values for the three primary air quality variables (PM2.5, NOx,‬
‭and SO2) were calculated for each of the five years (2015-2020). This summarization was‬
‭performed using software capable of statistical analysis.‬
‭●‬ ‭The cleaned dataset was imported into Google Sheets. Additional data sets related to urbanization‬
‭rates in Delhi and India’s overall urban population were also included in separate sheets.‬
‭●‬ ‭Analize the correlation coefficients between the AQI variables and Delhi's urbanization.‬

‭Data Collection‬

‭Table 1. Delhi's Air Quality Index Mean results 2015-2020‬

‭Year‬ ‭PM2.5‬ ‭NOx‬ ‭SO2‬
‭2015‬ ‭117.34‬ ‭81.79‬ ‭12.6‬
‭2016‬ ‭138.5‬ ‭75.59‬ ‭18.79‬
‭2017‬ ‭159.9‬ ‭46.01‬ ‭23.8‬
‭2018‬ ‭115.01‬ ‭57.3‬ ‭13.64‬
‭2019‬ ‭108.5‬ ‭53.25‬ ‭14.03‬
‭2020‬ ‭80.31‬ ‭38.84‬ ‭13.91‬

‭Table 2. Urbanization rates in Delhi 2015-2020‬

‭Year‬ ‭Population‬ ‭Growth Rate‬
‭2015‬ ‭25,866,000‬ ‭3.30%‬
‭2016‬ ‭26,720,000‬ ‭3.30%‬
 ‭2017‬ ‭27,602,000‬ ‭3.30%‬
‭2018‬ ‭28,514,000‬ ‭3.30%‬
‭2019‬ ‭29,399,000‬ ‭3.10%‬
‭2020‬ ‭30,291,000‬ ‭3.03%‬

‭Table 3. India's urban population 2015-2020‬

‭Year‬ ‭Population‬ ‭% of Total‬ ‭Change‬
‭2015‬ ‭433,595,954‬ ‭32.78‬ ‭2.39%‬
‭2016‬ ‭444,186,310‬ ‭33.18‬ ‭2.41%‬
‭2017‬ ‭455,009,748‬ ‭33.6‬ ‭2.415‬
‭2018‬ ‭465,871,825‬ ‭34.03‬ ‭2.36%‬
‭2019‬ ‭476,786,386‬ ‭34.47‬ ‭2.32%‬
‭2020‬ ‭487,702,168‬ ‭34.93‬ ‭2.26%‬

‭Data processing‬

‭Figure 1. Correlation between PM2.5 emissions and population growth in Delhi from 2015-2020‬
‭Figure 2. Correlation between NOx emissions and population growth in Delhi from 2015-2020‬

‭Figure 3. Coorelation between SO2 emissions and population growth in Delhi from 2015-2020‬
‭Figure 4. Correlation between Delhi's population and Year from 2015-2020.‬

‭Correlation coefficient (R) values were generated using =PEARSON function in Google Sheets.‬

‭Statistical Analysis‬

‭ earson correlation coefficient‬

P
‭While it is important to acknowledge that correlation doesn't equal causation, quantifying correlation‬
‭strength will yield meaningful patterns that will contribute to the discussion of the research question.‬
‭Table 4. R-values for PM2.5, NOx and SO2 emissions and Population growth in Delhi.‬
‭r value‬ ‭Coorelation‬

‭ M2.5 emissions and‬

P ‭-0.64‬ ‭Fairly strong negative‬
‭Urbanization‬

‭ Ox emissions and‬
N ‭-0.86‬ ‭Very strong negative‬
‭Urbanization‬

‭SO2 emissions and Urbanization‬ ‭-0.23‬ ‭Weak negative‬

‭The above correlation strengths are determined by the following strength chart:‬

‭Figure 5. Interpretation for r value results‬

‭Calculation Example of Google Sheets:‬

‭●‬ ‭Syntax: "=PEARSON(‬‭cells with PM2.5 emissions‬‭,‬‭cells‬‭with average population‬‭)‬
‭●‬ ‭For PM2.5 results: "‬‭=PEARSON(‬‭B2:B7‬‭,‬‭C2:C7‬‭)"‬