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    Diogo Rodrigues ESS IA First Draft

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    of 8

    ‭Enviromental Systems & Societies - Internal Assessment‬

    ‭ esearch Question: To what extent has growing‬


    R
    ‭urbanization rates affected air quality in Delhi,‬
    ‭India from 2015-2020?‬

    ‭Word count: 2189‬


    ‭Personal code: lgs857‬
    ‭Introduction‬
    ‭Global Context‬
    ‭Across the world, cities are expanding at unprecedented rates due to industrial growth,‬
    ‭employment opportunities, and the migration of people from rural to urban areas. According to the United‬
    ‭Nations, over 55% of the global population now lives in urban areas, a number projected to reach 68% by‬
    ‭2050. This urban growth brings both opportunities and challenges, one of the most critical being‬
    ‭environmental degradation, particularly air pollution. Cities like Beijing, Mexico City, and São Paulo‬
    ‭have all faced similar issues, with industrial activities and vehicle emissions driving poor air quality and‬
    ‭raising public health concerns. The consequences of unchecked urbanization are not only felt locally but‬
    ‭also contribute to global challenges, including climate change and increased mortality rates due to‬
    ‭pollution-related diseases. Thus, understanding the relationship between urbanization and air quality is‬
    ‭crucial to addressing the broader implications for sustainable development worldwide.‬

    ‭Local Context and Hypothesis‬


    ‭New Delhi, the capital of India, is witnessing one of the most rapid urban expansions in the‬
    ‭world. Delhi, the city and union territory that includes New Delhi, is now one of the largest metropolitan‬
    ‭areas globally and the second-largest in India, driven by its rich mineral resources and robust‬
    ‭manufacturing sector. With a population density of 11,297 people per square kilometer, Delhi is the most‬
    ‭densely populated area in the country. Unfortunately, it also suffers from the worst air quality in India,‬
    ‭with health experts stating that breathing the city's polluted air is equivalent to smoking 10 cigarettes a‬
    ‭day. The root cause of this pollution can be traced to the very factors fueling its urbanization, particularly‬
    ‭industrialization‬‭. As a major manufacturing hub, Delhi‬‭requires a large workforce, leading to a massive‬
    ‭population influx and the development of extensive infrastructure, much of which revolves around‬
    ‭factories that burn fossil fuels and‬‭release pollutants‬‭into the air. Additionally, the number of vehicles in‬
    ‭Delhi is extremely high, as they are the main mode of transportation for the expanding workforce. This‬
    ‭heavy reliance on vehicles further worsens the air pollution situation.‬

    ‭All in all, Delhi's air quality problem may be directly attributed to the enormous urban rates it‬
    h‭ ouses. According to Ildefons Cerdà General Theory of Urbanization, urbanization is an inevitable‬
    ‭outcome of industrialization, economic growth and prosperity, and, considering Delhi's current‬
    ‭socioeconomic status, it very well fits into this category. Such factors leads me into making the following‬
    ‭operational‬‭hypothesis‬‭: Increasing urbanization rates‬‭is directly related to decrease of air quality in Delhi.‬
    ‭This investigation will analyze empirical data from 2015 to 2020 on both urbanization and air quality,‬
    ‭aiming to find a positive correlation between the two variables and offer insights into how rapid urban‬
    ‭growth, a global phenomenon, can adversely affect air quality.‬

    ‭Variables‬

    ‭Type‬ ‭Name‬ ‭Justification‬

    ‭Dependent‬ ‭PM2.5‬‭in Delhi‬ ‭Annual particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration‬


    ‭ easures the amount of fine particulate pollution‬
    m
    ‭present in the air. These microscopic particles can‬
    ‭penetrate deep into the respiratory system, leading‬
    ‭to serious‬‭health issues‬‭such as asthma, lung‬
    ‭disease, and heart conditions. Elevated PM2.5‬
    ‭levels also reduce‬‭air visibility‬‭, affecting the‬
    ‭environment and overall air quality.‬

    ‭Dependent‬ ‭NOx‬‭in Delhi‬ ‭ itrogen oxides (NOx) are harmful gases‬


    N
    ‭primarily generated through combustion‬
    ‭processes, such as vehicle fuel burning and fossil‬
    ‭fuel combustion in power plants. NOx includes‬
    ‭two key gases: nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen‬
    ‭dioxide (NO2). These pollutants contribute to‬
    ‭smog formation‬‭,‬‭acid rain‬‭, and various‬
    ‭respiratory problems‬‭in humans.‬

    ‭Dependent‬ ‭SO2‬‭in Delhi‬ ‭ ulfur dioxide (SO2) is a toxic gas released‬


    S
    ‭during the combustion of fossil fuels and the‬
    ‭smelting of mineral ores. High concentrations of‬
    ‭SO2 in the air are associated with increased risks‬
    ‭of‬‭respiratory and cardiovascular diseases‬‭, as‬
    ‭well as‬‭environmental degradation‬‭, including‬
    ‭acid rain formation.‬

    ‭Independent‬ ‭ rbanization rates in‬


    U ‭ etric for analyzing the cause-and-effect‬
    M
    ‭Delhi‬ ‭relationship between various environmental and‬
    ‭socio-economic factors.‬

    ‭Independent‬ I‭ ndia Urban population‬ ‭ valuate urbanization rates on a larger scale and‬
    E
    ‭index‬ ‭establish connections between urbanization trends‬
    ‭and their environmental impacts.‬

    ‭Controlled‬ ‭Time period: 2015-2020‬ ‭To set a clear parameter for the research‬

    ‭Justification for method‬


    ‭By testing a wide variety of weather data (PM2.5, NOx, SO2) the results will display a broader‬
    ‭range of how different chemicals can affect the air quality. Note that such tests were specifically chosen to‬
    ‭display how urbanization, characterized by increased industrial activity and vehicle emissions, impact air‬
    ‭quality in Delhi. Other air quality indicators may not provide relevant insights into the research question.‬
    ‭The chosen time period is intended to yield specific and recent perspectives on this pressing‬
    ‭environmental issue.‬

    ‭Apparatus‬
    ‭●‬ ‭Delhi, India Metro Area Population 1950-2024 by United Nations World Population Prospects at‬
    ‭https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/21228/delhi/population#:~:text=The%20curren‬
    ‭t%20metro%20area%20population,a%202.84%25%20increase%20from%202021.‬
    ‭●‬ I‭ ndia Urban Population 1960-2024 by World Bank at‬
    ‭https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/IND/india/urban-population#:~:text=India‬
    ‭%20urban%20population%20for%202022,a%202.34%25%20increase%20from%202018.‬
    ‭●‬ ‭Air Quality Index data set from multiple cities in India by the Central Pollution Control Board‬
    ‭from 2015-2020 at‬
    ‭https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/rohanrao/air-quality-data-in-india?resource=download‬‭.‬

    ‭Method‬
    ‭●‬ ‭The AQI data for multiple cities in India from 2015-2020 was downloaded from the Central‬
    ‭Pollution Control Board (CPCB) website. This dataset included various air quality parameters for‬
    ‭multiple cities, including Delhi.‬
    ‭●‬ ‭To focus exclusively on Delhi's data, all entries from other cities were excluded using a filter.‬
    ‭●‬ ‭A machine learning model was employed to identify and exclude rows with incomplete data for‬
    ‭any of the key air quality parameters (PM2.5, NOx, SO2) in Delhi's dataset. Incomplete rows‬
    ‭were defined as those missing one or more of these variables.‬
    ‭●‬ ‭After the deletion of incomplete data rows, a clean dataset consisting of 10,331 rows remained,‬
    ‭covering AQI data for Delhi from 2015-2020.‬
    ‭●‬ ‭To simplify the analysis, the mean values for the three primary air quality variables (PM2.5, NOx,‬
    ‭and SO2) were calculated for each of the five years (2015-2020). This summarization was‬
    ‭performed using software capable of statistical analysis.‬
    ‭●‬ ‭The cleaned dataset was imported into Google Sheets. Additional data sets related to urbanization‬
    ‭rates in Delhi and India’s overall urban population were also included in separate sheets.‬
    ‭●‬ ‭Analize the correlation coefficients between the AQI variables and Delhi's urbanization.‬

    ‭Data Collection‬

    ‭Table 1. Delhi's Air Quality Index Mean results 2015-2020‬


    ‭Year‬ ‭PM2.5‬ ‭NOx‬ ‭SO2‬
    ‭2015‬ ‭117.34‬ ‭81.79‬ ‭12.6‬
    ‭2016‬ ‭138.5‬ ‭75.59‬ ‭18.79‬
    ‭2017‬ ‭159.9‬ ‭46.01‬ ‭23.8‬
    ‭2018‬ ‭115.01‬ ‭57.3‬ ‭13.64‬
    ‭2019‬ ‭108.5‬ ‭53.25‬ ‭14.03‬
    ‭2020‬ ‭80.31‬ ‭38.84‬ ‭13.91‬

    ‭Table 2. Urbanization rates in Delhi 2015-2020‬


    ‭Year‬ ‭Population‬ ‭Growth Rate‬
    ‭2015‬ ‭25,866,000‬ ‭3.30%‬
    ‭2016‬ ‭26,720,000‬ ‭3.30%‬
    ‭2017‬ ‭27,602,000‬ ‭3.30%‬
    ‭2018‬ ‭28,514,000‬ ‭3.30%‬
    ‭2019‬ ‭29,399,000‬ ‭3.10%‬
    ‭2020‬ ‭30,291,000‬ ‭3.03%‬

    ‭Table 3. India's urban population 2015-2020‬


    ‭Year‬ ‭Population‬ ‭% of Total‬ ‭Change‬
    ‭2015‬ ‭433,595,954‬ ‭32.78‬ ‭2.39%‬
    ‭2016‬ ‭444,186,310‬ ‭33.18‬ ‭2.41%‬
    ‭2017‬ ‭455,009,748‬ ‭33.6‬ ‭2.415‬
    ‭2018‬ ‭465,871,825‬ ‭34.03‬ ‭2.36%‬
    ‭2019‬ ‭476,786,386‬ ‭34.47‬ ‭2.32%‬
    ‭2020‬ ‭487,702,168‬ ‭34.93‬ ‭2.26%‬

    ‭Data processing‬

    ‭Figure 1. Correlation between PM2.5 emissions and population growth in Delhi from 2015-2020‬
    ‭Figure 2. Correlation between NOx emissions and population growth in Delhi from 2015-2020‬

    ‭Figure 3. Coorelation between SO2 emissions and population growth in Delhi from 2015-2020‬
    ‭Figure 4. Correlation between Delhi's population and Year from 2015-2020.‬

    ‭Correlation coefficient (R) values were generated using =PEARSON function in Google Sheets.‬

    ‭Statistical Analysis‬

    ‭ earson correlation coefficient‬


    P
    ‭While it is important to acknowledge that correlation doesn't equal causation, quantifying correlation‬
    ‭strength will yield meaningful patterns that will contribute to the discussion of the research question.‬
    ‭Table 4. R-values for PM2.5, NOx and SO2 emissions and Population growth in Delhi.‬
    ‭r value‬ ‭Coorelation‬

    ‭ M2.5 emissions and‬


    P ‭-0.64‬ ‭Fairly strong negative‬
    ‭Urbanization‬

    ‭ Ox emissions and‬
    N ‭-0.86‬ ‭Very strong negative‬
    ‭Urbanization‬

    ‭SO2 emissions and Urbanization‬ ‭-0.23‬ ‭Weak negative‬

    ‭The above correlation strengths are determined by the following strength chart:‬

    ‭Figure 5. Interpretation for r value results‬

    ‭Calculation Example of Google Sheets:‬


    ‭●‬ ‭Syntax: "=PEARSON(‬‭cells with PM2.5 emissions‬‭,‬‭cells‬‭with average population‬‭)‬
    ‭●‬ ‭For PM2.5 results: "‬‭=PEARSON(‬‭B2:B7‬‭,‬‭C2:C7‬‭)"‬

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