Research in Transportation Economics: Muhammad Shafique, Anam Azam, Muhammad Rafiq, Xiaowei Luo
Research in Transportation Economics: Muhammad Shafique, Anam Azam, Muhammad Rafiq, Xiaowei Luo
Research in Transportation Economics: Muhammad Shafique, Anam Azam, Muhammad Rafiq, Xiaowei Luo
A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T
Keywords: The transportation and electricity sectors are in the midst of leading changes in the endeavor to mitigate climate
Electric vehicle change and air pollution issues. In future years, traditional fossil-fuelled vehicles are estimated to be substituted
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle with electric vehicles (EVs), resulting in higher electricity demand from the transport sector. Meanwhile, the
Life cycle assessment
electricity sector is transforming due to policies to adopt renewable energy resources such as solar, wind, and
Environmental impact assessment
Electricity mix
hydropower in the future. However, there are still societal concerns regarding the environmental benefits of
Greenhouse gases emissions these vehicle technologies and how new energy options and vehicles benefit the 2050 HK Carbon Neutral Plan.
To address these concerns, this paper aims to analyse the environmental burdens of current (2019) and future
(2050) vehicle scenarios in Hong Kong using a life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA was performed for internal
combustion vehicles (ICEVs) fuelled by diesel and petrol and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) and EVs with
future electricity energy mix scenarios (2025–2050). The results revealed that EVs with the 2050 HK electricity
mix are an optimal choice and have the least environmental impact in selected impact categories. Additionally,
PHEV with diesel were the second most optimal choice to reduce the environmental impacts in current scenarios.
In contrast, the petrol ICEV has the utmost environmental impacts in all damage category results. The study
shows that clean energy could decrease the environmental impact and mitigate climate change in Hong Kong.
* Corresponding author. Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
E-mail address: [email protected] (X. Luo).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2021.101112
Received 1 November 2020; Received in revised form 16 June 2021; Accepted 25 June 2021
Available online 12 July 2021
0739-8859/© 2021 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
M. Shafique et al. Research in Transportation Economics 91 (2022) 101112
Fig. 1. The total number of registered petrol, diesel, and electric passenger vehicles in Hong Kong.
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the environmental impact assessment of BEV and missed the impact of assumes the total lifetime distance traveled by PHEVs, EVs, and ICEVs is
the energy transition considering all different types of vehicles (such as 150,000 km, and impacts are calculated based on the overall perfor
BEV, PHEV) with diesel and petrol. Thus, future development in the mance of vehicles during their lifetime. The scope of this analysis in
electricity sector must be incorporated into the life cycle database to cludes the cradle to grave life cycle assessment of vehicles, covering the
assess future EVs’ environmental impacts accurately. Beltran et al. production, transport, use, and maintenance phases of vehicles. The full
(2020) showed that the environmental performance of EVs and ICEVs description of system boundaries for PHEVs, EVs, and ICEVs is shown in
changes strongly in the future energy scenarios, and the relative per Fig. 2.
formance of two powertrains differs significantly based on the chosen The production phase consists of the production, assembly, and
scenario. Similarly, Cox et al. (2018) also showed that the future energy transport processes of vehicle components. The LCA phases comprise
sector must be included in LCA to evaluate EVs’ environmental impacts vehicle and battery production, use, and maintenance of vehicles. The
comprehensively. However, Cox et al. (2018) only included the future vehicles’ operation incorporates the direct emissions of fuels and non-
energy mix scenarios for BEV. Only a few studies (Burchart-Korol et al., exhaust emissions caused by brakes, roads, and tire wear. EVs do not
2018; Messagie et al., 2014) included the uncertainty analysis of the have direct pollutant emissions during the use phase, but all emissions
vehicle performance parameters independently. However, presently, are accounted for by the electricity production process. Therefore, it is
there is a literature gap regarding how the future energy mix could have imperative to know the generation methods of electricity used for EV
an impact on the overall LCA performance of EV and PHEV using the HK battery charging because they directly impact EVs’ overall emissions
energy mix. To fill this research gap, the following research questions during their life cycle assessment. Therefore, the system boundary of the
are answered: a) Do EVs and PHEVs mitigate the impact of climate EV and PHEV flow includes the electricity mix of HK from 2019 to 2050.
change compared with conventional vehicles in future energy scenarios This analysis utilises future electricity mix scenarios of 2025, 2030,
or only in the scenario where electricity sector decarbonisation is ach 2035, and 2050 for EVs and PHEVs and compares them with conven
ieved? b) Which environmental benefits could be achieved with vehicle tional vehicles fuelled by petrol and diesel.
electrification compared with ICEVs by utilising the HK future energy
mix scenarios? 3. Life cycle inventory and data analysis
The present study tries to fill the above research gaps using LCA
evaluation of ICEVs, EVs, and PHEVs, taking Hong Kong as a case study. 3.1. Vehicle manufacturing phase
The main objective of the paper is to undertake a comprehensive anal
ysis that can provide comprehensive answers to the questions above. To The material production consists of various stages, including mining,
achieve this, this analysis a) examines the production and use phase smelting, and refining for metals, whereas polymer production com
environmental impact of different powertrains and their relative per prises oil and gas recovery and refining, etc. According to the current
formance assessment based on complete LCA results, b) provides situation, the popular BEVs in HK are compact cars; therefore, these cars
consistent life cycle environmental impacts of current (2019) and future were selected in this study. The vehicle comprises various assemblies
(2050) passenger vehicles (EV and PHEV) based on future energy mix such as the chassis, power train system, transmission system, traction
scenarios, and c) helps engineers identify green opportunities in the motors, batteries, vehicle fluids, and vehicle assembly, which each
future transport system and helps policy-makers optimise the portfolio consist of several materials (Burnham, 2012). The detailed material
of HK energy development. proportion of PHEV, ICEV, and EV are summarised in Table 1. The
The remainder of this paper is organised as follows. Section 2 de vehicle is mainly composed of systems that can be separated into single
scribes the methodology used in this study. The life cycle inventory parts. ICEVs and EVs are the two main vehicle systems that consist of an
calculations are shown in Section 3, followed by the results and dis internal combustion engine and a battery system, while PHEVs have
cussion in Section 4. Section 5 concludes this study with future both an internal combustion engine and a battery system in one pow
recommendations. ertrain system. For the PHEV and EV, the study extracts the battery
values from Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in
2. Methodology Transportation (GREET) database (Argonne National Laboratory, 2019).
In addition, as most EVs (Transport Department, 2020b) are compact
2.1. Goal and scope of the study cars and have higher battery capacity, and materials which are selected
through the GREET database (Burnham, 2012). We have used the data
Life cycle assessment is a method used to evaluate the environmental from GREET and selected the weight of the PHEV and EV in our study. As
impact of a product, activity, or process throughout its lifetime. The there is no original equipment manufacturer (OEM) plant in Hong Kong,
environmental impacts of internal combustion engines and electric ve therefore, these vehicles were produced in other countries, and after
hicles were analysed in accordance with the procedure and recom that, they were transported to Hong Kong. As the transportation envi
mendations of ISO-14040 (International Organization for ronmental impact accounted for a minimal value compared with the
Standardization, 2006), including the four main steps: goal and scope production and use phase, so it is neglected in this study. The overall
definition, inventory analysis, impact assessment, and result interpre mass for the ICEV, PHEV, and EV are assumed to be 1395, 1867, and
tation. A comparative LCA based on a well-to-wheel analysis was per 1744 kg (Ecoinvent, 2020; Electric Vehicle Database, 2019). The curb
formed to estimate vehicles’ environmental impacts, and the details are weights of the PHEV and EV are 33.8% and 25.0% heavier than the
described. ICEV, while the curb weight of the PHEV is 7.0% heavier than the EV.
This is because the PHEV consists of an internal combustion engine and
2.2. Functional unit and system boundary battery together in one powertrain. ICEV vehicle production requires an
input of 5635.6 MJ of thermal energy and 4376.0 MJ of electricity. For
This study aimed to assess and compare the environmental impacts the production of EVs, a total energy input of 15,429.3 MJ of thermal
of the production and use phases of PHEVs, EVs, and ICEVs. To compare energy and 6463.1 MJ of electricity is required during the vehicle
the LCA of different vehicles, generally, a functional unit of total dis manufacturing process. In contrast, the PHEV required 8425.3 MJ of
tance traveled by vehicles during the lifetimes “150,000 km” has been thermal energy and 4958.1 MJ of electricity for the overall production
used in previous studies. Several authors assumed an average lifetime of and assembly, as expressed in Table 1.
14 years for EVs, with a total lifetime mileage of 150,000 km (Burch
art-Korol et al., 2018; Girardi et al., 2015; Hawkins et al., 2013; Pet
rauskienė et al., 2020). Therefore, for a fair comparison, this study
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3.2. Vehicle operation phase midpoint categories, which have higher environmental impacts in the
case of ICEVs, PHEVs, and EVs. The main purpose of the ReCiPe method
In addition to the overall distance traveled (150,000 km) by each is to convert the long list of inputs and outputs of the whole LCA into a
vehicle, other vital parameters considered for the LCA were fuel con number of indicators that have a higher environmental impact (Goed
sumption, non-exhaust emissions (particles released from brake wear, koop et al., 2008). This study selected the environmental impact cate
tire wear, and road surface wear), and exhaust emissions. Fuel con gories at the midpoint, which have a higher impact during the analysis,
sumption strongly depends on vehicle type. Table 2 reports the main such as global warming potential, ozone formation, fine particulate
assumptions of the driving mission sets for each of the PHEVs and EVs formation, terrestrial ecotoxicity, human toxicity, land use, and fossil
(the EV from 2019 to 2050 and the petrol PHEV and diesel PHEV): en depletion and mineral depletion. These are very useful impact categories
ergy consumption, etc. Table 3 summarises the characteristics (e.g., fuel to estimate the impact of a product with regard to sustainability (Bicer &
economy, road surface, and tire wear emissions) of the ICEV with diesel Dincer, 2018; de Souza et al., 2018). Therefore, to select a green and
and petrol. As shown in Table 2, the EV’s energy consumption per km sustainable vehicle, a comprehensive LCA was performed in the present
driving distance is assumed to be 0.206 kWh. In addition, the HK future study.
electricity mix scenarios from 2025 to 2050 were used to estimate the
environmental impacts of the EVs. 3.4. Uncertainty analysis
During the vehicle use phase, the ICEV runs on petrol or diesel, and
the EV runs on the HK electricity mix, while the PHEV runs on diesel/ Uncertainty is an in-built element, which needs attention for results
petrol and electricity. Therefore, the emissions from petrol, diesel, and assessment. In LCA analysis, the result varies due to the choice of the
electricity production were counted during the life cycle assessment of electricity generation mix, co-products, and curb weights of vehicles.
this study. As PHEVs can run in combination mode (energy supply from For the PHEV, a parametric study for optimal percentage selection of
an onboard battery or the internal combustion engine with diesel/ fuel and electricity was performed. The study also performed an un
petrol), this study assumes that 50% of the distance is traveled using certainty analysis to assess the robustness of the use phase results, as
diesel/petrol and the other 50% is traveled using electricity (Wu & these are the major part of the present study. In the present study, un
Zhang, 2017; Yang et al., 2021). In addition, to determine the impact of certainty analyses for the selected environmental impact categories are
the production and use of electricity during the life cycle assessment, the performed for diesel ICEVs, petrol ICEVs, PHEVs, and EVs using the
HK electricity mix (2019–2050) was used for this study. The data used current HK energy mix for 2019 and the future energy mix for 2050.
for the life cycle impact assessment of electricity production are
retrieved from the Ecoinevnt database, while the HK electricity mix 4. Results and discussion
scenarios were made using the Simapro software. The transmission and
charging losses were also considered during the life cycle assessment. 4.1. Results of the vehicle production phase
3.3. Life cycle impact assessment Fig. 3 shows the results of the vehicle production phase, consisting of
component production and vehicle manufacturing. Parts manufacturing
The life cycle impact assessment was performed with the software involves a number of mechanical and chemical processes such as cast
Simapro 9.1. The ReCiPe method was chosen to gauge the environ ing, rolling, and stamping (Wang et al., 2020). In addition, in this study,
mental impact assessment of PHEVs, EVs, and ICEVs, as it is widely used we assumed that steel/iron, aluminum, and plastics were produced in
by other researchers (Goedkoop et al., 2008). The primary objective of the countries that manufactured these vehicles, and we utilised their
the ReCiPe method is to transform the long list of life cycle inventory local parameter while estimating the production impact of the vehicles
results into a limited number of indicator scores. These indicator scores in this process. After the production, the vehicles were shipped to HK.
express each category’s environmental impact and help select the The stacked charts indicate the environmental impact contributions of
product with the least environmental impact. LCA database Ecoinvent 3 each component of the vehicles. Fig. 3 compares the different environ
was utilised to collect life cycle inventory data (Ecoinvent, 2020). A mental impacts associated with the production of the ICEV, EV, and
cradle to grave life cycle analysis, including material extraction, trans PHEV. Results include the impact of processes and components pro
portation of material, use phases and maintenance phases, was per duced during the life cycle assessment. The productions of advanced
formed in this study. This method was utilised to determine the impacts vehicles such as EV and PHEV have higher environmental impacts than
of multiple midpoint categories, and the results were shown for the ICEV, because EV and PHEV are heavier due to Li-ion batteries than
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higher impact in the case of the FD and MD categories. From the pro respectively.
duction results analysis, it can be seen that the production of the ICEV For EV production, the Li-ion battery is responsible for the greatest
has the most negligible impact in the case of all midpoint impact cate impact in all categories, as displayed in Fig. 4. In the case of the ICEV,
gories, followed by the PHEV, as shown in Fig. 3. the vehicle body and powertrain system are composed of various ma
To better understand the contribution percentage of each compo terials, and hence these two are the main contributors in all impact
nent’s impact, we grouped the components of each vehicle together, as categories, as shown in Fig. 4. For the PHEV and EV, Li-ion batteries
shown in Fig. 4. In this way, it was possible to observe the components of have the highest impact in the case of the OZF, PMF, TE, HT, LU, and MD
each vehicle that have a higher impact contribution and need further impact categories. The classical impact categories such as GWP, OZF,
attention for sustainable production in the future. In the case of the EV, PMF, HT, TE, FD, MD, and LU are analysed, and their percentage con
the Li-ion battery contributes 46% of the total GWP. The vehicle body tributions for each vehicle type are shown in Fig. 4. The powertrain
accounts for almost 35% and 24% of GWP impacts in the case of the system also plays a major role in HT and TE, around 44% in the case of
ICEV and the PHEV, respectively, while the chassis accounted for 14% the ICEV. The Li-ion battery has the second-highest impact of GWP
and 13% of GWP impacts in the case of the ICEV and the PHEV, (18%) in the PHEV compared with the results of the other two vehicle
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Fig. 4. Contribution of the components of each vehicle during the production phase.
types. show that PHEVs and EVs have lower GWP, FPM, LU, MD and FD im
pacts than petrol ICEV. In comparison, the diesel ICEV is a better choice
according to FPM, LU, MD, and HT compared with the PHEV and EV
4.2. Results of use phase
when utilising the current (2019) HK energy mix.
According to the inventory of the future electricity generation mix by
The environmental life cycle inventory assessments of the ICEV
source type in Hong Kong for the years 2019–2050, data for the current
fuelled by diesel and petrol, the EV using the HK mix energy scenarios,
and future electricity generation were used and analysed during the LCA
and the PHEV (fuelled by diesel and petrol as well as using the HK en
use phase analysis. A detailed description of current and future elec
ergy mix scenarios) were performed with the ReCiPe method at the
tricity production was illustrated in Table 4. At present, natural gas and
midpoint level. Comparative LCA results of the use phase for ICEVs,
coal are the major sources of electricity production, which comprise an
PHEVs, and EVs are depicted in Fig. 5. The results of the use phase are
overall 73% of electricity production. The current energy mix (2019) is
reported here, in particular, the effects of direct emissions of the com
based on the real energy mix data which is obtained from the 2020 press
bustion engine and the electricity production emissions. As shown in
release from the HK government (Hong Kong Special Administrative,
Fig. 5, the petrol ICEV has higher impacts in six categories (global
2020). In addition, future 2025 and 2030 energy mix data were obtained
warming potential, land use, terrestrial ecotoxicity, fine particulate
from the modeling study of Colonel-Bertrand (2020) which estimates the
formation, fossil depletion, and mineral depletion) compared with other
future energy mixes based on the 2030 HK climate action plan.
vehicles. The total results of the EV (HK electricity mix 2019), the diesel
Furthermore, future 2035 and 2050 data forecast the highest
ICEV and the petrol ICEV, and the PHEV HK 2019 with diesel and petrol
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EV had a major environmental impact in 2019 because electricity is still To sum up, the use phase LCA results show that the HK electricity
mainly generated using natural gas and coal. Due to the extensive use of mix dramatically affects the overall environmental impact results in all
natural gas and coal for electricity production, HK 2019 indicates categories. There is a massive decrease in environmental impacts in
adverse environmental impacts; thus, EVs in 2019 have a more future years, particularly for EVs and PHEVs. Additionally, the operation
degrading impact in four out of eight impact categories (FPM, HT, LU, stage of the EV in 2050 will release much lower GWP emissions than the
MD) compared with diesel ICEVs. Similarly, the petrol PHEV HK 2019 EV in 2019, which is mainly due to the increase in renewable energy
has a greater impact than the diesel PHEV HK 2019 in all impact cate production in HK electricity production. This study result mirrors the
gories except GWP and OZF. For the PHEVs 2025 and 2030 also follow a previous research findings (Burchart-Korol et al., 2018; Held &
similar pattern, as natural gas and coal are still the foremost sources of Schücking, 2019; Petrauskienė et al., 2020), indicating that the EV’s
the electricity generation mix. Therefore, the results of PHEVs in 2025 performance is enhanced by utilising renewable energy sources.
and 2030 are not convincing, particularly in the case of TE, HT, MD. In
contrast, in the year 2050, the major share of the HK electricity mix is 4.3. Complete LCA results
projected to be renewable energy, contributing almost 85%. Therefore,
the EV-2050 energy mix scenario has the least impact value on GWP, 4.3.1. Comparison of production and use phase environmental impact
OZF, FPM, TE, and FD. Fig. 6 shows the production and use phase result together, and their
From the analysis of the results, electric vehicles are still dominant in impacts are presented in percentage for each vehicle type. Advanced
reducing all categories’ impact, even in a state dominated by fossil vehicles such as EVs and PHEVs have higher percentages of GWP impact
sources for electricity production. Fig. 5 shows that the ICEV with petrol in the production phase than ICEVs. However, the GWP production
and diesel has a higher GWP impact. In addition, the diesel PHEV has a impact percentage increases from 2019 to 2050 in the case of EVs. In
lower GWP impact than the petrol PHEV. This is because petrol vehicles addition, it can be seen that in the case of the EV in 2050, there was a
have higher direct emissions in the use phase compared with all other 68% of GWP impact during the production stage, while only a 32% of
vehicles. Based on the operation phase assessment, it can be seen that GWP impact during the use phase. Similarly, the environmental impact
different electricity mixes have different impacts on GWP, HT, OZF, and percentages of the EV in 2050 production (i.e., OZF, FPM, LU, HT, MD
FPM by different types of vehicles, as presented in Fig. 5. All impact and FD) were higher than all other vehicle production impacts, as shown
category results with numeric values (see the Supplementary Material in Fig. 6. Comparing PHEVs and EVs, the environmental impact per
section) are presented in Table S1. centages (GWP, OZF, HT, FPM, and FD) of the production phase are
Ozone depletion potential refers to the damage of ozone gas in the expected to increase in future years, as this study uses a similar weight
upper atmosphere, which is majorly associated with the use of chloro and energy mix for the production of vehicles. This indicates that EVs
fluorocarbons in aerosol products. The production of steel, aluminum, and PHEVs do not include a modified database with the lightweight EVs
copper, zinc, lithium, nickel, rubber, and plastic mainly causes the and PHEVs in future years.
higher emissions of methyl chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, halons, In terms of MD, the production stage impact of the EV in 2050 and
and hydrobromofluorocarbons. This process contributes to the overall the petrol PHEV in 2050 account for 98% and 93%, respectively. For FD,
higher values of OZF in the atmosphere. The EVs has the optimal envi the highest production impact was 56% for the EV in 2050, followed by
ronmental results for the OZF impact category, followed by the petrol 27% for the diesel PHEV HK in 2050. The result shows that the pro
PHEVs, diesel PHEVs, and petrol ICEV. The diesel ICEV has the most duction stage was still a prominent phase in the life cycle of EVs and
significant OZF impact (382.8 kg NOx eq) in the use phase, which is PHEVs. The LCA impacts of ICEVs were dominant by the use phase. EVs
almost much higher than that of the EV in 2019 (15.2 kg NOx eq). and PHEVs with smaller batteries and lighter weights should be pro
A fine particulate matter (FPM) refers to the fine particles presented duced in the future to reduce their overall production stage impacts.
in an atmosphere, mainly ambient pollution. Fig. 5 shows that the EV in
2019 and the EV in 2025 have a more significant impact on the FPM 4.3.2. Complete LCA of ICEVs, EVs, and PHEVs of current (2019) and
impact category compared to all other vehicles. Generating current future (2050) scenarios
(2019) HK electricity from natural gas (29%) and coal (44%) produces a The environmental LCA of diesel ICEVs, petrol ICEVs, and current
higher amount of dust and fine particles. Therefore, FPM impact is (2019) and future (2050) scenarios for EVs and PHEVs was performed,
caused by the EV and PHEV with petrol in 2019’s use phase was found to and the results were analysed using the ReCiPe method at the midpoint
be higher than diesel ICEV. level. Fig. 7 presents the comparative analysis of the full LCA (including
Human toxicity (HT) refers to the potential impact on human health production, operation, and maintenance phases) of diesel ICEVs, petrol
caused by the toxic emission of harmful particles into the atmosphere, ICEVs, and EVs (2019–2050 electricity generation mix scenarios). Full
including ethane, phenols, and non-methane volatile organic com midpoint impact category results of ICEVs and EVs (2019–2050) are
pounds. From the use phase results analysis, the EVs show the higher shown in Table S2 in Supplementary Materials.
environmental performance for the HT, followed by diesel PHEVs, petrol For a comparison of impact results of all vehicles, we have selected
PHEV, petrol ICEV and diesel ICEV, as demonstrated in Fig. 5. As the the petrol ICEV as the base vehicle. Fig. 7 presented the impact of GWP,
future HK electricity mix utilises a higher proportion of renewable en where the EV 2050 result has the least GWP impact (37%) followed by
ergy, it reduces the production of dust and fine particles. Therefore, the the diesel PHEV in 2050 (61%) and the petrol PHEV in 2050 (68%)
EV in 2050 shows the greatest reduction in HT compared with the EV in compared with the petrol ICEV. The EV in 2019 has (24%) lower GWP
2019. Similarly, the terrestrial ecotoxicity (TE) environmental impact of impact than the petrol ICEV.
the EV in 2050 is almost 2 times less than that of the petrol ICEV. The It is also evident from Fig. 7 that the EV in 2050 shows lower OZF and
lowest environmental impact of TE was found in the use phase of the EV FPM impact than all other vehicles. The results also showed that the EVs
in 2035, as manifested in Fig. 5. (2019 and 2050) has a more significant impact concerning HT impact.
FD and MD impact categories refer to the use of non-renewable fossil The petrol PHEV in 2019 had the third-highest HT impact compared
fuels such as natural gas, petroleum fuels, and coal as well as minerals with other vehicles. This is because HK electricity is mainly produced
such as copper. Fig. 5 presents that the EV in 2050 shows the least FD from natural gas and coal, as shown in Table 4. In contrast, results
impact of all vehicles. In contrast, the petrol ICEV indicates a higher FD analysis indicates that the petrol ICEV has a lower mineral depletion
impact than all other vehicles. For the MD impact category, results impact than EVs and PHEVs. In the LU impact category, the diesel ICEV
reveal that the diesel ICEV has the least environmental of all vehicles in requires the least space, and its LU impact is 97% less than the petrol
the use phase, while the petrol ICEV shows the higher MD impact, fol ICEV. For fossil depletion, the EV in 2050 is a sustainable option for HK’s
lowed by the petrol PHEV HK in 2019 and the diesel PHEV HK in 2019. future transport system, as it uses fewer resources, which also fulfills the
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Fig. 6. Complete life cycle impacts of ICEVs, PHEVs, and EVs using the HK electricity mix.
criteria of the circular economy. The results indicate that the FD impact environmental impacts of all midpoint categories except HT, LU, and
of the EV in 2050 is 77% lower compared with the petrol ICEV. The MD. Thus, it is proven that turning from fossil fuels towards renewable
diesel PHEV in 2050 has the second-lowest FD impact value, which is energy provides significant advantages in protecting the overall envi
56% lower than our base vehicle. For mineral depletion, the diesel ICEV ronment and achieving transport sustainability. In contrast, the petrol
has a 13% lower impact than the petrol ICEV. On the other hand, the EV ICEV is the highest polluting vehicle in the HK transport system, and it
in 2050 and the petrol PHEV in 2050 indicate 910% and 274% higher should be replaced with an electric vehicle in the near future to make the
MD impacts than the base vehicle. HK transport system green and sustainable.
To sum up, through the current and future LCA analysis, results show To have a clear overview of the results pertaining to the whole LCA,
that the EV in 2050 is a sustainable choice in reducing the they have been transformed into a synoptic format, as shown in Fig. 8.
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Fig. 7. Midpoint results of complete LCA of the petrol ICEV and the diesel ICEV and current (2019) and future (2050) scenario of the EV and PHEV.
All the impact results for current and future scenarios were normalised least overall impact.
by Equation (1), as shown below, and their impacts are displayed in On the other hand, for the future HK electricity mix scenario (2050),
synoptic format. overall results in accordance with all impact categories show that the EV
in 2050 has the least environmental impact, followed by the diesel PHEV
xi − min(x)
zi = (1) in 2050, as shown in Fig. 8(b). Looking at the future, the ICEV is still
max(x) − min(x)
contributing larger impacts in the use phase. In the future scenario, EVs
are generally preferable to PHEVs and ICEVs with the same lifetime and
where; x= (x1 … …. ….,xn) and zi is the value of ith normalise data. xi is
vehicle characteristics.
the present value to be normalised, min(x) is the minimum values in x,
and max (x) is the maximum values in x.
In order to clearly show the current and future EVs and PHEVs’ 4.4. Uncertainty analysis
comparison results with ICEVs, the results of ICEVs compared to current
EVs and PHEVs were shown in Fig. 8(a), and the results of ICEVs The uncertainty analysis was employed to determine the uncertainty
compared to future EVs and PHEVs were shown in Fig. 8(b). Fig. 8(a) of the use phase results of the petrol ICEV, diesel ICEV, PHEV, and EV on
shows the higher impact of the petrol ICEV in the case of the present all eight selected midpoint categories. The Monte Carlo uncertainty
scenario (2019), and the diesel PHEV HK 2019 was found to have the analysis is conducted with 1000 trials, as suggested by Inyim et al.
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Fig. 8. Complete life cycle impacts of vehicles using HK electricity mix. a) ICEV with current EV and PHEV in 2019. b) ICEV with future EV and PHEV in 2050.
(2016), and a 95% confidence interval. Since there is a lack of energy Countries should encourage the adaptation of a cleaner energy option
and emission factors of products in Hong Kong, the values and infor for future transport electrification.
mation from the Ecoinvent database were used. Thereby, this added
uncertainty to the LCA results. This study mainly utilised the current and 5. Conclusion
future electricity mix for the electric vehicle; it is very important to
calculate the uncertainty in the use phase of ICEVs, EVs, and PHEVs for A comparative environmental impact assessment of ICEV, petrol
robust calculations. Therefore, to make our robust conclusion, an un ICEVs, PHEVs, and EVs was undertaken based on the ReCiPe method’s
certainty analysis was performed for selected impact categories for midpoint indicators. For EV and PHEVs’ environmental impact assess
ICEVs, PHEVs, and EVs, as shown in Fig. 9. Based on the coefficient of ment, the future electricity mix scenarios were included from the HK
variation, the EV in 2019 has the least uncertainty compared to all other electricity mix from 2019 to 2050. Hong Kong was selected as a case
vehicles for GWP. Results also revealed that the EV in 2019 shows lower study; the vehicle production, use, and transport phase results were
uncertainty in all impact categories concerning variance, as represented included in the whole life cycle assessment. The conclusions made are as
in Fig. 9. In contrast, the petrol ICEV showed greater uncertainty with follows:
respect to the coefficient of variation in all impact categories except TE.
Uncertainty analysis results revealed that HT impact categories would 1. Based on the evaluation of vehicle production, the EV manifests the
deviate most compared with all other impact categories for each vehicle, highest environmental impact in all impact categories, as it uses a
as shown in Fig. 9. Various factors affect the operation of vehicles, larger material proportion than other vehicles.
including fuel efficiency, battery size, and vehicle speed. Thus, the 2. Results indicated that EV environmental performance mainly de
environmental impact assessment calculated in each vehicle might be pends on the electricity mix, which is mainly used to provide energy
overestimated. However, the uncertainty analysis result did not reject to the EV. This study indicates that the current (2019) HK electricity
the conclusions drawn in the present work. mix is not suitable for adopting EVs. However, some EVs are a suit
able option for the HK transportation system. The PHEVs with diesel
4.5. Comparison of LCA results with published literate indicate lower particulate matter formation in 2019 and 2025 than
EVs, which could be a quick option to reduce ambient pollution in
The LCA results of ICEVs, PHEVs, and EVs were compared with the Hong Kong transport system.
previous studies for the functional unit of “per km distance traveled”, as 3. At the midpoint estimation, throughout the whole life cycle analysis,
shown in Table 5. For the comparison analysis with the prior studies, the EV with the 2050 electricity mix has a lower environmental
global warming potential and human toxicity impact categories were impact in five out of eight selected impact categories including global
chosen. A result of climate change can be seen in Table 5, which shows GWP (15,712 kg CO2 eq.), OZF (71 kg NOX eq), FPM (26 kg PM2.5
various LCA studies with respect to different geographical locations. All eq), TE (55, 121 kg 1,4-DB eq.) and FD (4, 285 kg oil eq.) than the all
the results vary, as the life cycle inventory and location have a signifi other vehicles. This is because a significant portion of the electricity
cant impact on the overall LCA result. The previous studies’ results mix (85%) is from renewable energy sources used to recharge elec
(Burchart-Korol et al., 2018) reported their GWP for future EV 2050; tric vehicle batteries.
their GWP impacts are found to be higher compared with our study
results. This is because our future HK electricity mix is estimated to This study result indicates that integrating renewable energy sources
utilise around 85% renewable energy sources for production. Addi into electricity production improves the environment and ecosystem. As
tionally, the difference in emission results might be due to operation for CO2 emissions mitigations, a higher penetration of EV in the light
emissions factors and vehicle efficiencies, which were used in previous weight vehicle category could provide greater Environmental potential
studies. Regarding the HT impact category, the HT of ICEV with diesel in Hong Kong. As EVs are still in the immature stage in Hong Kong, the
and petrol (Petrauskienė et al., 2020) was much lower than that man government should provide a financial subsidy to EV buyers with
ifested in our study. Vehicle weight and battery size are the main factors reduced vehicle tax as well as an exemption to the purchase tax. In
that significantly impact environmental LCA during the production addition, we argue that for future EV adoption, there is a need to reduce
stage. While fuel consumption and fuel types are the main aspects in the coal power consumption and regional power systems. Moreover, a
use phase for the LCA, manufacturing data also play an essential role in higher renewable energy integration will not only improve the envi
the use phase results. In the case of the EV operation LCA, the electricity ronment but also reduce the costs of tackling environmental degradation
production source majorly impacts the overall LCA results. Most of the issues in cities. The use of coal accounts for a higher proportion of the
research results indicate that the renewable electricity mix has a electricity mix due to low cost; however, the government should put
momentous impact on reducing the environmental impact of EVs. more effort into reforms on the gas market, which will be critical to
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M. Shafique et al. Research in Transportation Economics 91 (2022) 101112
Fig. 9. Uncertainty analysis of use phase results of ICEVs, EVs, and PHEVs.
lowering the cost gap and thus improving the cost competitiveness in lower energy consumption) of EVs and infrastructure development
Hong Kong. This could be done through some reasonable planning goal (charging, etc.). The future EVs should be cost-effective so that they can
integration (gas, solar, and wind) in the regional power system in future compete with ICEVs in the market, which can further promote their use
years. There is also a high need to invest in research and development in the transportation sector. In addition, there is also a need for the
related to EVs to compete with that of ICEVs. This includes technical adoption of environmentally friendly and lightweight batteries for EVs,
development in the manufacturing (lightweight and higher milage with which can promote their economic accessibility and sustainability. The
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M. Shafique et al. Research in Transportation Economics 91 (2022) 101112
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M. Shafique et al. Research in Transportation Economics 91 (2022) 101112
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