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Assignment 3

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6 views2 pages

Assignment 3

Uploaded by

azizmdaini04
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Exercise #1

a. mutually exclusive and not collectively exhaustive


b. mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive
c. mutually exclusive and not collectively exhaustive
d. mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive

𝐶6_20 = 38760 possible groups of 6.


Exercise #3

Exercise #4
A: American has flown in an airplane at least once → P(A)=0.47
B: Americans has ridden on a train at least once→ P(B)=0.28
General addition rule:
P(A or B)= P(A)+P(B)-P(A and B)
Events A and B are not mutually exclusive → we can’t assume that P(A and B)=0
Thus this problem is not solvable.
Exercise #5
A: U.S. household with television has cable TV→ P(A)=0.67
B: U.S. household with television has two or more TV sets → P(B)=0.74
P(A and B)=0.55
a. P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A and B) =0.86
b. P(A or B)-P(A and B)=0.31
c. P(A’ and B’)=1-P(A or B)=0.14
2
d. We can’t apply the special law of addition not apply to this problem because
A and B
are not Mutually Exclusive events.
Exercise #6
X: American adult is a stockholder→ P(X)=0.43
Y: American adult has some college education→ P(Y)=0.37
75% of all American adult stockholders have some college education →
P(Y/X)=0.75
a. P(X’)=1-P(X)=0.57
57% of American Adults do not own stock.
b. General Law of Multiplication
P(X and Y)=P(Y/X)*P(X)=0.3225
c. P(X or Y)=P(X)+P(Y)-P(X and Y)=0.4775
d. P(X’ and Y’)=1-P(X or Y)=0.5225
e. P(X’ or Y’)= P(X’)+P(Y’)-P(X’ and Y’)=0.6775
f. P(Y and X’)=P(Y/X’)*P(X’)
=[1-P(Y’/X’)]*P(X’)

𝑃(𝑋′𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑌′)
=[1 −

𝑃(𝑋′) ] ∗ 𝑃(𝑋′)
=0.0475
Exercice7

a. P(E/Q)= 𝑃(𝐸 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑄)


P(E and Q)=0.15

𝑃(𝑄)
= 0.4054
b. P(Q/E)= 𝑃(𝐸 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑄)
𝑃(𝐸)
= 0.3261

c. P(Q/E’)= 𝑃(𝑄 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸′)


3

𝑃(𝐸′)

𝑃(𝑄)−𝑃(𝑄 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸)/𝑃(𝐸′)


=

=
0.22/0.54
= 0.4074

d. P(Q’ and E’)=P(E’)- P(E’ and Q)=0.32


Exercice8

b. P(S/H’)=𝑃(𝑆 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐻′)/𝑃(𝐻′)


a. P(S’/H)=1-P(S/H)=0.03

=
0.1811/0.63
= 0.2874

c. P(H’/S)=0.3353
d. P(H’/S’)=0.9758
Exercise #9
A: machine A production→ P(A)=0.1
B: machine B production→ P(B)=0.4
C: machine C production→ P(C)=0.5
D: Defective product
P(D/A)=0.05; P(D/B)=0.12; P(D/C)=0.08

Revised Probability: P(A/D)=𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐷)/𝑃(𝐷)


4

=
P(D/ A)∗P(A)/𝑃(𝐷)
= 0.0538
Total probability formula:
P(D)= P(D and A) +P(D and B)+ P(D and C)
= [P(D/ A)*P(A)]+ [P(D/ B)*P(B)]+ [P(D/ C)*P(C)]

Revised Probability: P(B/D)=𝑃(𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐷)/𝑃(𝐷)


=0.093

=
P(D/ B)∗P(B)/𝑃(𝐷)

Revised Probability: P(C/D)=𝑃(𝐶 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐷)/𝑃(𝐷)


= 0.5161

=
P(D/ C)∗P(C)/𝑃(𝐷)
= 0.4301

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