MMSS-04 Rev.

1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 5

Severe Tropical Storm NIKA (TORAJI)
Issued at 11:00 AM, 10 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 2:00 PM today.

“NIKA” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA EAST OF QUEZON

Location of Center (10:00 AM)

The center of Severe Tropical Storm NIKA was estimated

based on all available data including from Daet Weather Radar
at 500 km East of Infanta, Quezon (15.1°N, 126.3°E)

Intensity

Maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h near the center,

gustiness of up to 125 km/h, and central pressure of 985 hPa

Present Movement

Westward at 30 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 300 km
from the center
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
Center Position Intensity Movement
Date and Time Lat. Lon. MSW dir. and
Location Cat. speed (km/h)
(°N) (°E) (km/h)
12-Hour Forecast
8:00 PM 15.5 124.5 310 km East of Baler, Aurora 120 TY WNW 20
10 November 2024
24-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 16.2 122.5 210 km East of Baler, Aurora 130 TY WNW 20
11 November 2024
36-Hour Forecast
8:00 PM 17.6 120.1 Over the coastal waters of Sta. Catalina, Ilocos Sur 110 STS WNW 15
11 November 2024
48-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 18.2 118.5 210 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur 95 STS WNW 15
12 November 2024
60-Hour Forecast
365 km West of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
8:00 PM 18.7 117.1 100 STS WNW 15
(OUTSIDE PAR)
12 November 2024
72-Hour Forecast
615 km West of Calayan, Cagayan
8:00 AM 19.1 115.6 100 STS WNW 15
(OUTSIDE PAR)
13 November 2024
96-Hour Forecast
880 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon
8:00 AM 19.9 113.1 95 STS WNW 10
(OUTSIDE PAR)
14 November 2024
120-Hour Forecast
1,025 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon
8:00 AM 19.8 111.7 95 STS W Slowly
(OUTSIDE PAR)
15 November 2024

Page 1 of 4

Prepared by: ACJ Checked by: MAGGE

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
 MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 5

Severe Tropical Storm NIKA (TORAJI)
Issued at 11:00 AM, 10 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 2:00 PM today.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

TCWS No. Luzon Visayas Mindanao

The northern and central portions of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran,
Dinalungan, Dipaculao, Maria Aurora, Baler), Isabela, Quirino, the southern
2 portion of Cagayan (Solana, Iguig, Peñablanca, Tuguegarao City, Enrile),
Nueva Vizcaya, Kalinga, Mountain Province, and Ifugao
- -

Wind threat:
Gale-force Warning lead time: 24 hours
winds Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
The rest of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Apayao, Abra,
Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, the eastern and central portions of
Pangasinan (San Nicolas, Tayug, Natividad, San Quintin, Umingan, Basista,
Villasis, Malasiqui, San Fabian, Urbiztondo, Bautista, Mangaldan, Mapandan,
Rosales, Dagupan City, Binalonan, Aguilar, Alcala, San Manuel, Asingan, Santo
Tomas, Pozorrubio, Santa Maria, City of Urdaneta, Laoac, Mangatarem, San
Carlos City, Manaoag, Binmaley, San Jacinto, Bayambang, Calasiao, Santa
Barbara, Balungao, Sison, Lingayen, Bugallon, Labrador) , La Union,
Benguet, the rest of Aurora, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga,
Bulacan, the northern portion of Metro Manila (City of Navotas, City of
1 Valenzuela, City of Malabon, Caloocan City, City of Marikina, City of Pasig,
Quezon City), Rizal, the northeastern portion of Laguna (Santa Maria,
- -

Wind threat: Mabitac, Pakil, Pangil, Famy, Siniloan, Paete, Kalayaan, Cavinti, Lumban,
Strong Luisiana), the eastern portion of Quezon (Calauag, Guinayangan,
winds Tagkawayan, Pitogo, San Andres, Buenavista, San Francisco, Pagbilao, Infanta,
Lopez, Catanauan, Mulanay, Unisan, General Luna, Plaridel, Quezon, Alabat,
Sampaloc, Padre Burgos, Macalelon, Mauban, Perez, Agdangan, Gumaca,
Atimonan, Real, San Narciso, General Nakar, Lucban, City of Tayabas, Lucena
City) including Pollilo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur,
Catanduanes, and Albay (Malinao, Tiwi, Bacacay, City of Tabaco, Malilipot,
Rapu-Rapu)
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property

Page 2 of 4

Prepared by: ACJ Checked by: MAGGE

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
 MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 5

Severe Tropical Storm NIKA (TORAJI)
Issued at 11:00 AM, 10 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 2:00 PM today.

OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

Refer to Weather Advisory No. 5 issued at 11:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone
“NIKA”.

Severe Winds

The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be
slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered
from the prevailing wind direction.

 Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
 Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.

The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of NIKA is Wind Signal No. 4.

Furthermore, the northeasterly wind flow will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in
coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):

 Today (10 November): Batanes, Babuyan Islands, northern Cagayan, and Ilocos Norte
 Tomorrow (11 November): Batanes, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes
 Tuesday (12 November): Batanes and Cagayan including Babuyan Islands

Coastal Inundation

There is a moderate to high risk of storm surge may occur in the next 48 hours in the low-lying or exposed coastal localities
of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Zambales, Aurora, Quezon
including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes. For more information, refer to Storm Surge
Warning No. 3 issued at 8:00 AM today.

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

A Gale Warning is hoisted over the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 1
issued at 11:00 AM today.

24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook

Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters:

 Up to 7.0 m: The seaboards of Isabela and northern Aurora
 Up to 5.5 m: The remaining seaboard of Aurora, the northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; the seaboard of
Camarines Norte
 Up to 4.5 m: The eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan; the northern seaboards of Camarines Sur and Catanduanes
 Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek
shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.

Page 3 of 4

Prepared by: ACJ Checked by: MAGGE

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
 MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 5

Severe Tropical Storm NIKA (TORAJI)
Issued at 11:00 AM, 10 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 2:00 PM today.

Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:

 Up to 4.0 m: The remaining seaboard of Catanduanes
 Up to 3.5 m: The seaboards of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Batanes, and Babuyan Islands; the remaining seaboard of
mainland Cagayan.
 Up to 3.0 m: The eastern seaboards of mainland Quezon, Albay and Sorsogon; the northern seaboard of Northern Samar;
the remaining seaboard of Ilocos Region and Polillo Islands.
 Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these
conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.

Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:

 Up to 2.5 m: The eastern seaboard of Northern Samar.
 Up to 2.0 m: The eastern seaboards of Eastern Samar and Dinagat Islands; the seaboard of Kalayaan Islands.
 Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while
venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

 NIKA is forecast to move generally west northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the track forecast, it may make
landfall over Isabela or Aurora tomorrow (11 November) morning or early afternoon. Regardless of the position of the
landfall point, it must be emphasized that hazards may still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point or
within the forecast confidence cone. The tropical cyclone will then traverse the landmass of mainland Northern Luzon
and emerge over the West Philippine Sea tomorrow evening. NIKA will continue moving west northwestward over the
West Philippine Sea and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Tuesday (12 November) afternoon or evening.
 NIKA is forecast to reach typhoon category today and may reach its peak intensity prior to landfall. A short period of
weakening is expected as NIKA traverses the landmass of Luzon due to land interaction. Re-intensification may occur
over the West Philippine Sea.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all
necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these
hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings,
thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 2:00 PM today.

DOST-PAGASA

Page 4 of 4

Prepared by: ACJ Checked by: MAGGE

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines