Training Title:

System Thinking
Course 2 :
Feedback Loops

Instructor : Aboozar Kordi, CPCM®, CBAP®, CBDA®, AAC®, CPOA®, CCA®, PBA®, ACP®, PMP®

Date : Ordibehesht 1403

A Systems Perspective

Reactive

Events and Decisions

Adaptive

Patterns of Behavior

Generative

System Structure
“Distancing...”
A systems view stands back just far enough to...
• Deliberately blur discrete events into patterns of
behavior
• Deliberately move from a focus on individual
decisions to a focus on policy structure
The Systems Perspective
Reactive

Events and Decisions

Adaptive

Patterns of Behavior

Generative

System Structure
Dynamics
 Define problems in terms of graphs over time.
 Graph important variables
 Graph historical data
 Graph anticipated dynamics
 Graph preferred dynamics
 Use these to focus systems thinking and modeling
Feedbacks in a system

 Feedback exists between two components of a system when each affects the
other.
Feedbacks can cause undesirable
outcomes…
 We have all probably covered our ears when experiencing audio feedback.
Feedbacks can cause desirable outcomes …

 Compound interest in finance is a feedback, and a very useful one

Simple vs. Compound Interest

300

Cash on Deposit 250

Interest Earned
200

Dollars
150

100
Simple Interest

Compound Interest

50

0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Years
Systems model of the bathtub — review

 A STELLA model of a bathtub from Unit 3 includes a reservoir for the

bathtub, and two flows that represent the faucet and drain.

Flux Reservoir Flux

In this case, the inflow and outflow rates are independent of reservoir size.
Adding a feedback loop

 Now we will make the flow rate of the Drain dependent on the size of the
reservoir in Unit 4 Bathtub Model_Exp1
 In equation form, Drain = 0.1 * Water in Sink
Systems diagram of this new configuration

Faucet Bathtub Drain

Systems Structure
• Accumulations (populations, resources…)
• Causal structure: “feedback” loops
• Delays
• Perceptions (a kind of accumulation)
• Pressures
• Affects, emotions, (ir)rationalities
• Policies governing decisions
Causal Loop Diagrams
• Causal mapping is a Crime rate Retail outlets
powerful tool for
representing structure in
complex systems. Quality of city life

Neighborhood Absentee
• Arrows indicate causal health clinics landlords
influence.

Inmigration Population Outmigration

Polarities of Causal Links

• Positive and negative Crime rate Retail outlets

signs show the direction of +
–
causality:
Quality of city life

+ ... “direct” relation –

+
– …“inverse” relation Neighborhood Absentee
health clinics landlords

Inmigration
+
Population – Outmigration
Definitions of Link Polarities

A adds to B, or
∆A leads to ∆B in the same
direction

C subtracts from D, or
∆C leads to ∆D in the opposite
direction

All words phrases are expressed as quantities that have a clear

sense of increase or decrease.
No verbs — the action is in the arrows.
Simple test for link polarity

An increase in A makes
B higher than it would
have been without the
change.

An increase in C makes
D lower than it would
have been without the
change.
Examples

More lawyers mean more

Lawyers Court+cases litigation; fewer lawyers,
less litigation

Emigration subtracts from

– population: An increase in
Outmigration Population emigration means less (a
decrease means more) than
we’d have without the change
“Ceteris paribus”...
All other influences held constant as we assign polarities.
Exercises
Reglatory delays in Citizen ownership of
the planning process the outcomes

Citizen participation in
the planning process

Anxiety Productivity

Ratiation
d of heat away
from the earth

Concentration of Global average

green house gases in temperature
atmosphere
Feedback Loops

A feedback loop exists when decisions change the state of the

system, changing the conditions and information that influence
future decisions.

Action

Decisions State of
the system

Perceptions
The Joy of Feedback
The Joy of Feedback
No — it’s more like the life cycle of the
famous scientist
Examples of Feedback Loops
Solvency of
a Bank

Deposits Withdrawals

Perceived solvency
of the Bank Quality of
communication
Quality of
between teams
communication

Trust Quality of
communication
within teams

Risk taking Teamwork

Two kinds of feedback loops
 Reinforcing loops  Balancing loops
 Growth producing  Counteracting
 Destabilizing  Goal seeking
 Accelerating  Stabilizing
 Positive: an even number of  Negative: an odd number of
–’s –’s

 Symbolized by  Symbolized by
Examples of Reinforcing Loops
Performance
+ +
Births per
Population
year
+ +
Motivation

+
Number of private
Attractiveness
businesses
for business
+ +
Expected profitability Tax base
of business
– Tax rate
–
Isolate and Identify Link Polarity

Attractiveness for Number of private

business businesses

Expected
Tax base
profitability of
business

Tax Rate

26
Isolate and Identify Link Polarity
(Always trace an Increase)

+
Attractiveness for Number of private
business businesses

Expected
Tax base
profitability of
business

Tax Rate

27
Isolate and Identify Link Polarity
(Always trace an Increase)

Attractiveness for Number of private

business businesses

+
Expected
Tax base
profitability of
business

Tax Rate

28
Isolate and Identify Link Polarity
(Always trace an Increase)

Attractiveness for Number of private

business businesses

Expected
Tax base
profitability of
business

–
Tax Rate

29
Isolate and Identify Link Polarity
(Always trace an Increase)

Attractiveness for Number of private

business businesses

Expected
Tax base
profitability of
business

–
Tax Rate

30
Isolate and Identify Link Polarity
(Always trace an Increase)

Attractiveness for Number of private

business businesses
+

Expected
Tax base
profitability of
business

Tax Rate

31
Completed Loop
(Now tell the story)

+
Attractiveness for Number of private
business businesses
+
(R) +
Expected
Tax base
profitability of
business

– –
Tax Rate

32
 Typical Reinforcing Loop Behaviors
20,000

15,000

10,000
Population and Births Loop
5,000

0
0 25 50 75 100

10,000

9,000
Businesses and Taxes Loop
8,000

7,000

6,000
0 25 50 75 100
World Population (billions)

0
1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
Self-reinforcing processes in world population
growth
Reinforcing Feedback in the
Newspaper
Reinforcing Feedback in the Newspaper
Reinforcing Feedback in the Newspaper

Garfield’s (R) Jon’s

happiness suspicion
Examples of Balancing or Counteracting
Loops
+
Desired amount of
Population Outmigration
water in glass
Water + - –
in glass Fraction
+ filled
Gypsie moth + Gypsie moths
Pouring rate – net growth
– +
Wasp net
Wasps + growth
 Typical Counteracting Loop Behaviors
20
Filling a Glass
15

10
Predator-prey interactions
5

0
0 10 20 30 40
•0 •7.5 •15 •22.5 •30

10,000

7,500

5,000
Population and
2,500 emigration
0
0 25 50 75 100
Tips for Determining Link and Loop
Polarities

 For each link, determine the effect of an increase in the

variable at the tail of the arrow:
 If the variable at the head increases, assign a plus.
 If the variable at the head decreases, assign a minus.
 For each loop, count the number of negative signs:
 An even number of negative links is a reinforcing (R) loop.
 An odd number of negative links is a balancing (B) loop.
 Most important: For each loop, tell a self-reinforcing or
balancing/counteracting story, and check that the story
matches the loop polarity.
More Serious Example from the Newspaper:
Recall the graph of per capita energy use
5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Presentation Dynamics

Clarity of
presentation

Audience Clarifying
understanding questions
Presentation Dynamics
- Which loop dominates?
Stocks and Flows
Stocks are accumulations.
 Stocks are increased by inflows and decreased by outflows.
 When a link means “add” or “subtract” we have a stock-and-flow structure.
 Example: Inventory
Stock and Flow Diagramming Conventions
A Stock and Flow Example

Explicit stocks and flows:

The corresponding causal-loop diagram:

Human Activity, CO2, and Global Temperature

Atmospheric
Thought CO2 annual CO2 Uptake of
experiment: production atmospheric CO2

Economic
Capital activity
stock
Global heat
capital energy
incoming solar outgoing global
investment
heat energy heat energy
Structure and Dynamics of Terrorist Cells

Peripheral (R) Funding

support
(R) Suppression Terrorist
activities actions
(R) (B)

(R)
New
(R) Terrorist
recruits group (B) Losses
Zeal
(R)
(R)
Martyrs to
the cause
Balancing Loops in Tobacco Prevalence

Balancing or
Counteracting Loops

Researchers
awarness of
tobacco health
risk
+
+
Public
Smokers awareness of
- tobacco health
risk

Three views People quitting

smoking
 Balancing Loops in Tobacco Prevalence
Tax revenues
from smokers
+Gov. income
Balancing or +

Counteracting Loops + Govt funding of

tobacco control

Funding for tobacco

+ health research
Researchers Funding for tobacco
awarness of
tobacco health control programs
risk
+ +
+
Public
Smokers awareness of Tobacco control
- tobacco health +
programs
risk

+ +
+
Three views People quitting Health insurers
+ coverage of tobacco
smoking
quitting costs
Loops and Constituencies

Pro-tobacco Govt awareness of Anti-tobacco

contituencies tobacco health risk constituencies
+ +
+ + +
+ + + +
Funding for tobacco
health research +
+ Funding for tobacco
Health care costs Researchers awarness control programs
of tobacco health risk
+
+
+
+

Smokers Public awareness of Tobacco control

- tobacco health risk + programs
Tobacco +
+
revenues
+ +
People starting smoking
+ +
People quitting
Smoking as a + smoking
Trend in tobacco social norm -
company revenues -
+

+ +
-

+ Tobacco marketing Pressure on tobacco

activities Tobacco products companies to reduce +
- availability marketing activities
+
Tobacco growers
 There are a lot …
<Anti-tobacco
litigation>
Perceived importance of <Perceived importance
other health programs - Govt willingness to +
of other health
act against tobacco
programs>
- +
+ Tax revenues
+
from smokers
+Tobacco taxes
+Gov. income

+ Govt funding of
Pro-tobacco Govt awareness tobacco control
Anti-tobacco
of tobacco
contituencies constituencies
health risk + +
+ + +
++ + +
Funding for tobacco
+ health research +
Researchers Funding for tobacco
Health care costs awarness of
tobacco health control programs
Anti-tobacco risk
litigation +
+ +
+
Public
Smokers awareness of Tobacco control
- tobacco health +
programs
- risk
Anti-tobacco +
Tobacco revenues +
legislation People starting + + +
+
+ +
+ smoking
People quitting Health insurers
Smoking as a +
Trend in tobacco + - smoking coverage of tobacco
social norm
company revenues - quitting costs
+
+ +
-
+
Tobacco marketing Pressure on tobacco
Tobacco Tobacco products companies to reduce
activities -
production + availability marketing activities
capacity

xxx
Policy Resistance of Complex Systems
Policy Resistance of Complex Systems
Policy Resistance of Complex Systems
Policy Resistance in Complex Systems
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