Final - Review - With Solutions - 2021

S. Bourguin { MCS 239 { [email protected].
edu
Boston University
MA213 – BASIC STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY, FALL 2021
Final exam review
Problem 1
A certain automatic car wash takes exactly 5 minutes to wash a car. On average, 10 cars per hour arrive
at the car wash. Suppose that, 30 minutes before closing time, 5 cars are in line. If the car wash is in continuous
use until closing time, is it likely anyone will be in line at closing time?
Problem 2
In a study about DNA in peptide (protein) produced by antigens for a parasitic roundworm in birds, sci-
entists tested each in a sample of 4 alleles of antigen-produced protein for level of peptide. Based on the
assumption that the data comes from a normal distribution, the results were x̄ = 1.43 and s = 0.13. Use this
information to construct a 90% confidence interval for the true variation in peptide scores for alleles of the
antigen-produced protein. Interpret the interval for the scientists.
Problem 3
In a sample of 1024 subcarrier signals transmitted off the coast of Martha’s Vineyard, 672 were deter-
mined to be data subcarriers, 256 pilot subcarriers and 96 null subcarriers. Suppose that a communications
engineer who works near Martha’s Vineyard believes that fewer than 70% of all subcarrier signals transmitted in
the area are data subcarriers. Is there evidence to support this belief? Test using α = 0.05.
Problem 4
Acid has been found to be a primary cause of dental caries. It is theorized that oral mouthwashes con-
tribute to the development of caries due to the antiseptic agent oxidizing into acid over time. To test this theory,
three bottles of mouthwash, each of a different brand, were randomly selected from a drugstore. The pH level
(where lower pH levels indicate higher acidity) of each bottle was measured on the date of purchase and after 30
days. The data is shown in the following table.
Mouthwash brand Initial pH Final pH

LMW 4.56 4.27
SMW 6.71 6.51
RMW 5.65 5.58
We wish to conduct an analysis to determine if the mean initial pH level of mouthwash differs significantly from
the mean pH level after 30 days.
1. What assumption is required in order to be able to perform this analysis?

2. Conduct the analysis at a level of significance of α = 0.05. What can we conclude?
Solution
Solution to Problem 1: If two or more cars arrive, it will close late. Let X denote the number of cars that will
arrive in these last 30 minutes. We have X ∼ Po(10/2) = Po(5). We are hence looking for
P(X ≥ 2) = 1 − P(X < 2) = 1 − P(X = 0) − P(X = 1)

e−5 50 e−5 51
=1− − = 1 − e−5 (1 + 5) = 0.9595.
0! 1!
So it is very likely that someone will be in line at closing time.
Solution to Problem 2: We want to construct a 90% confidence interval for σ 2 . The sample size is 4. The
general form of a (1 − α) confidence interval for the variance σ 2 for a sample size of n is
" #
2 (n − 1)s2 (n − 1)s2
σ ∈ , .
χ2n−1,α/2 χ2n−1,1−α/2
h i h i
3s2 2 3(0.13)2 3(0.13)2
Applying this here with α = 10% and n = 4 yields σ 2 ∈ χ23,0.05
, χ23s = 7.8147 , 0.3518 = [0.0065, 0.1441].
3,0.95
We are hence 90% sure that the true variance is between 0.0065 and 0.1441.
Solution to Problem 3: Let p be the true proportion of all subcarriers that are data subcarriers. We want to
test at the α = 5% level (
H0 : p = 0.7
.
Ha : p < 0.7
672
We have p̂ = 1024 = 0.656, and hence np̂ = 1024 × 0.656 = 672 ≥ 15 and nq̂ = 1024 × 0.344 = 352.2 ≥ 15. We can
hence perform a z-test about for proportions. We have
p̂ − p0 p̂ − p0 0.656 − 0.7
z= = p p0 q 0 = q = −3.07.
σp̂ n
0.7×0.3
1024
The rejection region will place α = 5% in the left tail of the standard normal distribution. The rejection region is
hence (−∞, −1.645). Given that −3.07 ∈ (−∞, −1.645), we can conclude that there is sufficient evidence to reject
the null hypothesis H0 and indicate that the true proportion is indeed less than 70% at the α = 5% significance
level.
Solution to Problem 4: 1. We need to assume that the pH levels are normally distributed.
2. We perform a paired difference t-test at the α = 5% significance level. We first need the difference data. We
have
Mouthwash brand Difference in pH
LMW 0.29
SMW 0.20
RMW 0.07
This gives us x̄ = 0.1866, s2 = 0.01223 and hence s = 0.1106. We test at the α = 5% level
(
H0 : µdifference = 0
.
Ha : µdifference 6= 0
We use a t-statistic
x̄ − 0 0.1866
t= q = 0.1106 = 2.922.
s2 √
3 3

The rejection region is of the form −∞, −tα/2,n−1 ∪ tα/2,n−1 , +∞ = (−∞, −4.303) ∪ (4.303, +∞). As 2.922 ∈ /
(−∞, −4.303) ∪ (4.303, +∞), we conclude that there is not enough evidence to reject H0 and to say that the levels
are different at the α = 5% significance level.

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S. Bourguin { MCS 239 { [email protected].

MA213 – BASIC STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY, FALL 2021

Final exam review

Mouthwash brand Initial pH Final pH

1. What assumption is required in order to be able to perform this analysis?

P(X ≥ 2) = 1 − P(X < 2) = 1 − P(X = 0) − P(X = 1)

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