Is there life elsewhere
in the Universe?
Dr. Reina Reyes / NIP UP Diliman
Is there life elsewhere
in the Universe?
“The universe is a pretty
big place. It's bigger than
anything anyone has ever
dreamed of before. So if
it's just us... seems like
an awful waste of space.
Right?”
— Dr. Ellie Arroway,
SETI Astronomer
(played by Jodie Foster)
The Drake Equation
No. of civilizations that have formed over the
history of the observable Universe
N★・fp・np・fl・fi・ft
Frank & Sullivan (2016) “A New Empirical Constraint on the
Prevalence of Technological Species in the Universe”
The Drake Equation
No. of civilizations that have formed over the
history of the observable Universe
N★・fp・np・fl・fi・ft
total no. of stars in the
observable Universe
Frank & Sullivan (2016) “A New Empirical Constraint on the
Prevalence of Technological Species in the Universe”
The Drake Equation
No. of civilizations that have formed over the
history of the observable Universe
N★・fp・np・fl・fi・ft
fraction of those stars
that form planets
Frank & Sullivan (2016) “A New Empirical Constraint on the
Prevalence of Technological Species in the Universe”
The Drake Equation
No. of civilizations that have formed over the
history of the observable Universe
N★・fp・np・fl・fi・ft
avg. no. of planets in
the habitable zone of a
star with planets
Frank & Sullivan (2016) “A New Empirical Constraint on the
Prevalence of Technological Species in the Universe”
The Drake Equation
No. of civilizations that have formed over the
history of the observable Universe
N★・fp・np・fl・fi・ft
probability that a
habitable zone planet
develops life
Frank & Sullivan (2016) “A New Empirical Constraint on the
Prevalence of Technological Species in the Universe”
The Drake Equation
No. of civilizations that have formed over the
history of the observable Universe
N★・fp・np・fl・fi・ft
probability that a planet
with life develops
intelligent life
Frank & Sullivan (2016) “A New Empirical Constraint on the
Prevalence of Technological Species in the Universe”
The Drake Equation
No. of civilizations that have formed over the
history of the observable Universe
N★・fp・np・fl・fi・ft
probability that a planet
with intelligent life
develops technology
Frank & Sullivan (2016) “A New Empirical Constraint on the
Prevalence of Technological Species in the Universe”
The Drake Equation
No. of civilizations that have formed over the
history of the observable Universe
A = N★・fp・np・fl・fi・ft
astrophysical “bio-technical”
(observable) (uncertain)
Frank & Sullivan (2016) “A New Empirical Constraint on the
Prevalence of Technological Species in the Universe”
Stars [N★]
Milky Way Galaxy Observable Universe
N★ = 3 x 1011 N★ = 2 x 1022
Planets [fp]
Planets [fp]
KEPLER SPACE TELESCOPE
Kepler’s Candidate Planets & Parent Stars (1,235 as of Mar 2011)
Sun
(Jupiter
& Earth)
fraction of stars
that form planets
fp ~ 1
Illustration Credit:
Jason Rowe,
Kepler Mission
Habitable Planets [np]
SUN
VENUS EARTH MARS
avg. no. of planets in the
habitable zone of a star with planets np ~ 0.2
Life [fl]
amino acid
amino acid chain (protein)
Murchison meteorite fragment
75+ different amino acids
fell on Victoria, Australia in 1969
15+ used by life on Earth (out of 20)
Life elsewhere in the Solar System?
fl ~?
Life elsewhere in the Solar System?
Venus -
Phosphine
detected in
highly-acidic,
temperate
cloud decks
fl ~?
Image by Akatsuki
Spectra of Observed Observed
PH3 1–0 June 2017 March 2019
20 parts per
billion (ppb)
abundance
James Clerk Atacama Large
Maxwell Millimeter Array
Telescope (ALMA)
(JCMT)
Greaves et al. (2020)
Intelligent Life [fi]
200,000 yrs ago
Intelligent Animal Behaviors
Chimpanzees (Apes) Ravens (Corvids)
Dolphins
(Cetaceans)
fi ~ ?
Technology [ft]
100,000 light years
200 light
years in
diameter
Image Credit: Adam Grossman / Nick Risinger
ft ~ ?
Allen Telescope Array (ATA) in California
Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI)
The Drake Equation
No. of civilizations that have formed over the
history of the observable Universe
A = N★・fp・np・fl・fi・ft
= 2 x 1022・~1 ・ 0.2・fbt
➡ fbt = 2.5 x 10-22・A
Frank & Sullivan (2016) “A New Empirical Constraint on the
Prevalence of Technological Species in the Universe”
The Drake Equation
2 Possible Scenarios
we are a we are not
miracle special
A=1 A >> 1
fbt << 10-22 fbt >> 10-22
“Two possibilities exist: either we are
alone in the Universe or we are not.
Both are equally terrifying.”
— Arthur C. Clarke
The Great Filter
Option 1: It is behind us
Robin Hanson (1996) “The Great Filter - Are We Almost Past It?”
The Great Filter
Option 2: It is ahead of us
Robin Hanson (1996) “The Great Filter - Are We Almost Past It?”
The Great Filter
Possible Civilizational Risks:
• Self-Destruction (Warfare with WMDs)
• Environmental Dangers (Climate Change,
Resource Depletion, Global pandemic (?), etc.)
• Astrophysical Dangers (Asteroid Impacts,
Supernovae, etc.)
• Technological Dangers (Accidental Black
Holes, Gray Goo, etc.)
• Uncontrolled AI (but AI can take over as
colonizers)
Caspar Oesterheld “Civilizational Filters and the Fermi Paradox”
