RM 1 - Midterm
RM 1 - Midterm
RISK AND RETURN to single company or industry. This type of risk can be mitigated through
diversification of investment
▪ Risk Management – In financial management, it is the process of identification, Example: Management risk, litigation or legal risk, regulatory risk
analyzation/evaluation/measure, acceptance (it is either you accept or you
decline) /mitigation of risk in an investment. RETURN OR REWARD
▪ Financial Risk Management – is the process of identifying risk, analyzing them - measure of an investments total interest, dividends, and capital gains expressed
and making investment decision based on either accepting or mitigating them. as financial gain or loss over a specific timeframe
▪ Risk - A measure of the uncertainty surrounding the return that an investment
will earn or, more formally, the variability of returns associated with a given asset. ▫ Total rate of return – total gain or loss experienced on an investment over a given
It is also the degree of uncertainty and/or potential financial loss period of time (previous to current)
TYPES OF RISK
▪ Credit/ Default Risk – potential loss arising from a bank, corporation, or
government borrower or counterparty failing to meet its obligations in accordance ▪ rt - total rate of return;
with the agreed terms ▪ ct – cashflow (dividends, interest payment, coupon payment)
--- Credit Risk – possibility of a loss resulting from a borrower’s failure to repay ▪ pt – present value
a loan or meet contractual obligations ▪ pt-1 – previous values
▪ Foreign Exchange Risk – losses that an international financial transaction may Apple Walmart
incur due to currency fluctuation. It is also known as currency risk, foreign Beginning $90.75 Beginning $55.33
exchange risk, and exchange rate risks. Affected: financial performance, financial Dividends 0 Dividends $ 1.09
position Ending $210.73 Ending $52.84
Scenarios:
▫ Optimistic – positive, best possible result
▪ Unsystematic Risk or Systematic Risk
▫ Pessimistic – negative or worst possible result where;
▫ Most likely – most probable result ▫ n – number of data, number of observations, or number of years
--- Probability Distribution provide more quantitative insight into an asset’s risk.
The probability of a given outcome is its chance of occurring or chance of an
outcome to happen. a. Based on Probability b. Based on Historical Data
--- Continuous Probability Distribution is a probability distribution showing all
the possible outcomes and associated probabilities for a given event. This type of
distribution can be thought of as a bar chart for a very large number of outcomes.
Figure 8.2 presents continuous probability distributions for assets C and D. Note
that although the two assets have the same average return (15 percent), the
distribution of returns for asset D has much greater dispersion than the
distribution for asset C. Apparently, asset D is more risky than asset C.
BASED ON HISTORICAL DATA
▪ Standard Deviation (σr)- The most common statistical indicator of an asset’s risk;
it measures the dispersion around the expected value. It measures the dispersion
of an investment’s return around the expected return.
- high %, risky
- low %, less risky
where;
▫ r̄-
mean
▫ rj- return, total rate or percentage of return
▫ prj- probability
▪ Expected Value of Return (r̄)- The average return that an investment is
expected to produce over time.
Stock Price
Year Beginning Ending Dividend CORRELATION
2010 35.00 36.50 3.50
2011 36.50 34.50 3.50
2012 34.50 35.00 4.00
35 = 14.29%
2011: 3.5 + (34.5 – 36.5)
36.5 = 4.11% Correlation is a statistical measure of the relationship between any two series of
2012: 4.00 + (35 – 34.5) numbers. The numbers may represent data of any kind, from returns to test
34.5 = 13.04% scores. A relationship between two series of numbers must have an inverse
Compute for r̄: Compute for variance: relationship to mitigate the risk of the assets in a portfolio.
14.29 + 4.11 + 13.04 = 31.44 14.52 + 40.58 + 6.55 = 61.466 ▪ positively correlated - Describes two series that move in the same direction.
31.44 ÷ 3 = 10.48% 61.466 ÷ (3-1) = 30.8233% ▪ negatively correlated - Describes two series that move in opposite directions
▪ correlation coefficient- A measure of the degree of correlation between two
Compute for σr: Compute for CV: series
√30. 8233 = 5.55178% 5.55178% ▪ perfectly positively correlated- Describes two positively correlated series that
10.48 = 0.5297 have a correlation coefficient of +1
▪ perfectly negatively correlated - Describes two negatively correlated series that
have a correlation coefficient of +1
Year rj r̄ rj - r̄ (rj - r̄)2 ▪ uncorrelated - Describes two series that lack any interaction and therefore have
2010 14.29% 10.48% 3.81% 14.52% a correlation coefficient close to zero.
2011 4.11% 10.48% 6.37% 40.58%
2012 13.04% 10.48% 2.56% 6.55%
var. σr CV
30.8233% 5.55178% 0.53
30.8233% 5.55178% 0.53
30.8233% 5.55178% 0.53
RISK OF A PORTFOLIO
New investments must be considered in light of their impact on the risk and return
of an investor’s portfolio of assets. The financial manager’s goal is to create an
efficient portfolio, one that provides the maximum return for a given level of risk.
We therefore need a way to measure the return and the standard deviation of a
portfolio of assets. As part of that analysis, we will look at the statistical concept
of correlation, which underlies the process of diversification that is used to
develop an efficient portfolio.
▫ Total Risk is risk associate in an investment. Thus, he total risk of a security can
be viewed as consisting of two parts:
Portfolio Betas. The beta of a portfolio can be easily estimated by using the betas
of the individual assets it includes. Letting wj represent the proportion of the
▪ Diversifiable risk (sometimes called unsystematic risk) represents the portion of
portfolio’s total dollar value represented by asset j and letting βj equal the beta of
an asset’s risk that is associated with random causes that can be eliminated
asset j, we can use Equation 8.7 to find the portfolio beta, βp
through diversification. It is attributable to firm-specific events, such as strikes,
lawsuits, regulatory actions, or the loss of key accounts.
▪ Non-diversifiable risk (also called systematic risk) is attributable to market factors
that affect all firms; it cannot be eliminated through diversification. Factors such
as war, inflation, the overall state of the economy, international incidents, and
where:
political events account for non-diversifiable risk.
wj – weight of an asset
βj – beta of an asset
CAPM states that, for additional risk that investor stake, there should be additional The Equation
return. Using the beta coefficient to measure non-diversifiable risk, the capital asset
pricing model (CAPM) is given by
CAPM graph:
where:
rj = required return on asset j
RF = risk-free rate of return, commonly measured by the return
on a U.S. Treasury bill
βj = beta coefficient or index of non-diversifiable risk for asset j
rm = market return; return on the market portfolio of assets
(rm - RF) = risk premium, additional risk or return
The CAPM can be divided into two parts:
(1) risk-free rate of return (RF) - which is the required return on a risk-free * RF should always be greater than rj
asset, typically a 3-month U.S. Treasury bill (T-bill), a short-term IOU Other things being equal, the higher the beta, the higher the required return, and
issued by the U.S. Treasury the lower the beta, the lower the required return.
* T-bill and bonds are risk free investment
--- market return - the return on the market portfolio of all traded securities.
-- security market line (SML). The depiction of the capital asset pricing model
(CAPM) as a graph that reflects the required return in the marketplace for each
level of non-diversifiable risk (beta). The SML will, in fact, be a straight line. It
reflects the required return in the marketplace for each level of non-diversifiable CHANGES IN RISK AVERSION
risk (beta). The slope of the security market line reflects the general risk preferences of
investors in the marketplace. As discussed earlier, most investors are risk averse;
CHANGES IN INFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS that is, they require increased returns for increased risk. This positive relationship
Changes in inflationary expectations affect the risk-free rate of return, RF. The between risk and return is graphically represented by the SML, which depicts the
equation for the risk-free rate of return is; relationship between non-diversifiable risk as measured by beta (x axis) and the
required return (y axis). The slope of the SML reflects the degree of risk aversion:
the steeper its slope, the greater the degree of risk aversion because a higher level
of return will be required for each level of risk as measured by beta. In other
where: words, risk premiums increase with increasing risk avoidance. Changes in risk
r* or I = constant interest rate aversion, and therefore shifts in the SML, result from changing preferences of
IP = inflation premium or inflationary expectation investors.
In short, it measures the pagkatakot ng investor sa risk.
This equation shows that, assuming a constant real rate of interest, r*, changes in -- greater risk aversion results in higher required returns for each level of risk.
inflationary expectations, reflected in an inflation premium, IP, will result in Similarly, a reduction in risk aversion causes the required return for each level of
corresponding changes in the risk-free rate. Therefore, a change in inflationary risk to decline.
expectations that results from events such as international trade embargoes or
major changes in Federal Reserve policy will result in a shift in the SML. Because ▫ higher degree – risk averse (takot sa risk)
the risk-free rate is a basic component of all rates of return, any change in RF will - rj is affected and rm increases
be reflected in all required rates of return. ▫ lower degree – less likely to be risk averse (less takot sa risk)
Changes in inflationary expectations result in parallel shifts in the SML in direct
response to the magnitude and direction of the change. This effect can best be In changes in Risk Aversion, risk-free rate of return is not affected because it is free
illustrated by an example. from risk.
THE COST OF CAPITAL Net Proceeds - from the sale of a bond, or any security, are the funds that the firm
receives from the sale. The total proceeds are reduced by the flotation cost. Ito
▪ Cost of Capital lang yung ma r-receive ni company kapag bumili si investor ng share of stock.
- expense of making capital
- represents the firm’s cost of financing and is the minimum rate of return that a
project must earn to increase firm value. In particular, the cost of capital refers to Floatation Costs - total costs of issuing and selling securities. These costs apply to
the cost of the next dollar of financing necessary to finance a new investment all public offerings of securities: debt, preferred stock, and common stock. They
opportunity include two components:
- Investments with a rate of return above the cost of capital will increase the value (1) underwriting costs, or compensation earned by investment bankers for selling
of the firm, because these investments are worth more than they cost the security; and
- the higher the cost of capital, the better! (2) administrative costs, or issuer expenses such as legal and accounting costs.
Example:
Investment A * If FC is not given, use the par value. It is either in percentage form or peso form.
Cost = $100,000
Life = 20 years
Expected Return = 7 Net Proceeds = Price – Floatation Costs
The analyst studying this investment recalls that the company recently issued
bonds paying a 6% rate of return. He reasons that because the investment project Example
earns 7% while the firm can issue debt at 6%, the project must be worth doing, so A corporation is planning to sell P20,000,000.00 worth of 20-year maturity bonds,
he recommends that the company undertake this investment. each bond has a coupon rate of 9% and with a par value of P1,000.00. Since there
In short, mas kikita. are other bonds in the market with similar risk can earn a return greater than 9%,
the corporation need to sell the bonds at a discounted price of P980.00
Investment B The Floatation cost is estimated to be at 2%.
Cost = $100,000
Life = 20 years ▫ Needed capital: Php 20M
Expected Return = 12 ▫ Maturity: 20 yrs
Least costly financing source available Equity = 14
▫ Coupon rate: 0.09
The analyst assigned to this project knows that the firm has common stock
▫ Par Value: Php 1k
outstanding and that investors who hold the company’s stock expect a 14% ▫ Selling price: Php 980
return on their investment. The analyst decides that the firm should not
undertake this investment because it only produces a 12% return while the ▫ Floatation costs: 0.02 or Php 20 (1k × 2% = Php 20 FC)
company’s shareholders expect a 14% return. ▫ Net Proceeds: Php 960 (980 – 20)
The cost of long-term debt is the financing cost associated with new funds raised where
through long-term borrowing. Typically, the funds are raised through the sale of I = annual interest in dollars
corporate bonds. Nd = net proceeds from the sale of debt (bond)
n = number of years to the bond’s maturity
* 1 000 is not constant, replace it Par Value
After Tax Cost of Debt g or constant rate of growth in dividends is not given sometimes. To get g:
Unlike dividend payment from stocks, a bond’s coupon payment is tax deductible.
With that, we also have to consider tax when computing for cost of debt. g = present – prev ×100
prev
The after-tax cost of debt, ri, can be found by multiplying the before-tax cost, rd,
by 1 minus the tax rate, T Example:
Duchess Corporation wishes to determine its cost of common stock equity. rs. The
market price, Po. of its common stock is $50 per share. The firm expects to pay a
dividend, D₁, of $4 at the end of the coming year, 2013. The dividends paid on the
Example: outstanding stock over the past 6 years (2007 through 2012) were as follows:
Tax rate of corporation in this example is 40%
ri = 9.39% × (1 – 40%)
ri = 5.63%
The cost of preferred stock, rp, is the ratio of the preferred stock dividend to the
firm’s net proceeds from the sale of the preferred stock.
Preferred stockholders have a higher claim to dividends or asset distributing than
common stockholders. Preferred stockholders have the combination of debt
(Fixed Dividend Payments) and Equity Ownership Securities but do not have voting
rights.
It turns out to be approximately 5% (more precisely, it is 5.05%). Substituting
The following equation gives the cost of preferred stock, r p, in terms of the annual
D1 = $4, P0 = $50, and g = 5, into Equation 9.5 yields the cost of common stock
dollar dividend, Dp , and the net proceeds from the sale of the stock, N p:
equity:
The 13.0% cost of common stock equity represents the return required by existing
or:
shareholders on their investment. If the actual return is less than that,
shareholders are likely to begin selling their stock.
Example:
Using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
The same corporation is contemplating issuance of 10% dividend paying preferred
Describes the relationship between the required return, rs, and the non-
stock which they expect to sell at P87.00 per share. The cost of Selling the stock is
diversifiable risk of the firm as measured by the beta coefficient, b.
P5.00 per share.
Dp = 87 × 0.10
Dp = Php 8.7
8.7
8.7−5
rp = 10.61%
Solving Equation 9.4 for rs results in the following expression for the cost of The cost of retained earnings, rr , to the firm is the same as the cost of an
common stock equity: equivalent fully subscribed issue of additional common stock. Stockholders find
the firm’s retention of earnings acceptable only if they expect that it will earn at
least their required return on the reinvested funds.
where
P0 = value of common stock
D1 = per-share dividend expected at the end of year 1 Thus, it is not necessary to adjust the cost of retained earnings for flotation costs
rs = required return on common stock because by retaining earnings the firm “raises” equity capital without incurring
g = constant rate of growth in dividends these costs.
COST OF NEW ISSUES OF COMMON STOCK In earlier examples, we found the costs of the various types of capital for Duchess
Corporation to be as follows:
𝐷1
rn = 𝑃𝑜−𝐹𝐶
+𝑔
Example:
To determine its cost of new common stock, r n, Duchess Corporation has
estimated that on average, new shares can be sold for $47. The $3-per-share If expected return is 10%, 9.84% is not acceptable
underpricing is due to the competitive nature of the market. A second cost If expected return is 8%, 9.84 % is acceptable
associated with a new issue is flotation costs of $2.50 per share that would be paid Assuming an unchanged risk level, the firm should accept all projects that will earn
to issue and sell the new shares. The total underpricing and flotation costs per a return greater than 9.8%.
share are therefore $5.50.
Subtracting the $5.50-per-share underpricing and flotation cost from the current WEIGHTING SCHEMES
$50 share price results in expected net proceeds of $44.50 per share ($50.00 Firms can calculate weights on the basis of either book value or market value using
minus $5.50). Substituting D1 = $4, Nn = $44.50, and g = 5, into Equation 9.8 results either historical or target proportions.
in a cost of new common stock, rn:
Book Value versus Market Value
▪ Book Value Weights Weights that use accounting values to measure the
proportion of each type of capital in the firm’s financial structure
▪ Market Value Weights Weights that use market values to measure the proportion
Duchess Corporation’s cost of new common stock is therefore 14.0%. That is the of each type of capital in the firm’s financial structure.
value to be used in subsequent calculations of the firm’s overall cost of capital. Market value weights are clearly preferred over book value weights.