TECHNICAL SESSION IV

TOPIC: ATMA NIRBHAR BHARAT- INDIA’S PATH TO AN ECONOMIC SUPERPOWER.

The dynamics of geopolitics have been changing unconditionally and at the fastest pace. This
decade has witnessed major advancements in various sectors, as well as unforeseeable
situations such as the intersection of the COVID-19 pandemic, the war between Russia and
Ukraine, the challenges posed by changing climate, surging energy prices, and unprecedented
accelerations in inflation, which have created a crisis for global leadership. The contours of
international relations have fundamentally changed, and the aftermath of globalization is not
as flat as had been predicted.

The fact is that several of our assumptions have been challenged such as:

- The EU would stay together.

- Russia would be forced to accept and reduce its international role.
- China should adopt Western democratic principles.
- Secular principles are universal in nature.
- The pandemic breakout would mean developed countries stepping in to help the
developing world.

Unfortunately, every single one of these beliefs has faltered. This multi-level crisis has
shattered the myth of a unipolar or a bipolar world of superpowers that could step in and
stabilize global environments.

Let me give you an example: Recently, in Egypt, COP27 concluded. In 1992, when the world
came together to sign the international treaty on climate change, the principle was stated as
enabling economic development to proceed sustainably. However, the contributions expected
from developed nations have failed to materialize, and the struggle to balance equitable growth
with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius has fallen far short of expectations. This
is just one instance of entering a world where every nation makes its own decisions, and it will
be increasingly difficult to manage using economic might and command-and-control
structures.

Therefore, in my opinion, in this emerging multipolar world, superpowers will need to take
responsibility for stepping in and helping others during a crisis instead of bullying other nations
into submission. They will need to prioritize humanity as their foremost operating principle. A
superpower must also be a thriving democracy that acknowledges that there is no one uniform

By: Aayush Gupta

style of democracy. It should be a nation willing to share its technology to enable social
development to address universal challenges in education, healthcare, and skill development.
The style of capitalism that focuses solely on growth and ignores the social fabric of our society
is facing its greatest pushback ever, and rightly so.

In such a multipolar world, India's increasing economic strength, coupled with its culture and
beliefs, becomes significant as we embark on our journey to becoming an economic
superpower - one that combines monetary growth with vast social growth, all within the
confines of a democratic society.

It is well-documented that at the time of India's independence in 1947, many believed that
Indian democracy would not survive. However, not only did we survive, but India is now
regarded as a role model for the peaceful transfer of power from one government to the next.
Additionally, after over two decades of relatively short-term governments and coalitions, we
now have a government with a majority of its own. As expected, this has given our country the
ability to initiate several structural reforms in the political and administrative systems,
delivering public services while balancing a long-term view with rapid execution.

Let me examine some other factors that have enabled India's growth. Our democracy is now
75 years old, which is roughly the average lifespan of an Indian today. During this time, India
has made significant progress. It took us 58 years to reach our first trillion dollars of GDP, 12
years to reach the second trillion, and just five years to reach the third trillion.

Considering the rapid pace at which the government has been executing a vast multitude of
simultaneous social and economic reforms, I anticipate that within the next decade, India will
add a trillion dollars to its GDP every 12 to 18 months. This puts us on track to become a $30
trillion economy by 2050, with stock market capitalizations that could exceed $45 trillion.

To illustrate the significance of these numbers, consider that the United States is currently a
$23 trillion economy with stock market capitalizations ranging from $45 trillion to $50 trillion.
While India's absolute growth numbers will likely be greater than any other nation's between
today and 2050, the nominal dollar-based GDP narrative does not fully capture India's true
potential. The scale of any GDP expansion must be normalized in terms of our nation's
purchasing power parity (PPP). By 2050, India's share of global GDP in PPP terms is expected
to be over 20 percent, further highlighting India's potential as an economic superpower.

By: Aayush Gupta

We should reflect on the incredible possibility of India's growth as we contemplate the country's
history. Once crushed and drained by colonial rulers, India now stands resilient on the cusp of
extraordinary growth. It is the only major country on a path to emerge as a high-income nation
without compromising its democracy and diversity. Well before 2030, India will become the
world's third-largest economy and, by 2050, the world's second largest. India's success story of
combining economic growth and democracy is unparalleled.

Now, let me talk about the India I see in 2050 and outline a set of interconnected factors that
establish our path forward. All these factors will combine to make the next three decades the
most defining period for the impact India will have on the world.

- The first dimension is our nation's demographic dividend, which will drive
consumption and accelerate the growth of a tax-paying society. India's median age will
be just 38 years even in 2050. Over this period until 2050, our population will grow by
15 percent to 1.6 billion, but per capita income will accelerate by over 700 percent to
approximately $16,000. The growth of this consuming middle class will drive an
unprecedented surge in demand, which in turn will drive a surge in private and
government expenditures, as well as attract the highest level of foreign direct
investment. In the ongoing year, India is expected to record a 15 percent increase and
an all-time high of over $100 billion of FDI. Such a scale of investment lays the
foundation for significant job creation. In fact, India's FDI inflows have increased over
20-fold since the year 2000, and I would expect them to reach $1 trillion by 2050.
Nothing beats internal demand within a large economy to attract FDI, and there could
be no better sign of increasing global confidence in India.

- The second dimension is the pace of entrepreneurship that we are witnessing.

Digitalization has accelerated this velocity, and a digitally enabled India is transforming
every aspect of how we operate, live, and consume. In this context, the current world
entrepreneurship and digitalization are strongly linked and combined to create a
dynamic, innovative environment. A digitalized India will also transform healthcare,
education, and skill development and create a more equitable society. Our space and
adoption of digital technologies will create massive new and innovative market spaces.
I fundamentally believe that the next three decades will propel India to the forefront of
entrepreneurship. This journey is already well underway. In 2021, the pace of unicorn
creation in India has been the fastest in the world. This will continue, and for every

By: Aayush Gupta

 unicorn that rises, we will see the birth of dozens of micro-unicorns. In 2021, we added
a unicorn every nine days. We executed the largest number of real-time financial
transactions globally - a staggering $48 billion. This was six times greater than the
combined number in the US, Canada, France, and Germany. All of this has laid the base
for the fourth industrial revolution, where humans and machines are all interconnected.
This will be followed by the AI and Web 3.0 revolutions, where the physical and digital
worlds start fusing. I expect that, just like India's internal demand leading to a surge in
FDI, the number of startups being created will lead to a surge in venture capital
investments we see funding in India. The first to cross one billion dollars was in 2015.
This year, VC funding will exceed $50 billion, and this is just a 50x acceleration in just
eight years. India stands as the foremost example of how a smartphone and inexpensive
data powered by aspirations can create jobs and transform a nation.

- The third dimension that will prove to be a powerful transformation lever for India is
in the space of our energy transitions and infrastructure development. Energy poverty
is one of the greatest challenges faced by the developing world today, and this gap will
need to be filled mostly with renewable energy. Although India currently ranks third in
the renewable energy attractiveness index and is the world's third-largest energy-
consuming country, there is little doubt that India's energy transitions will be
unparalleled as it races to meet its energy needs. By 2050, India will need 400 percent
more energy units than it currently consumes. While this may seem challenging, the
technology advancements that we are seeing are expected to make this possible, given
the dramatic and continuing drop in the cost of renewable energy, especially solar
power. The marginal cost of green power is headed towards zero. It is now certain that
this zero-cost electron can economically split a water molecule and create 100 percent
green hydrogen in the future. The combination of solar and wind power, coupled with
green hydrogen, opens up unprecedented possibilities for India.

I would go as far as to state that the revolution in alternative energy technologies opens
the possibility that, by 2050, India can become a net green energy exporter. This will
also enable decentralized power generations required to accelerate the micro-sizing of
any process. It will enable entrepreneurship opportunities across micro manufacturing,
micro agriculture, micro-banking, micro-healthcare, micro-education, and everything
that India's rural population needs for its development. Pulling the planet down will be

By: Aayush Gupta

 one of the most profitable businesses and the largest job creator over the next several
decades. I am in no doubt that India will lead the global energy transitions.

I recognize that much still needs to be done. As the economy grows, we cannot afford to fall
into the classic trap of becoming a fastest growing nation, where only the top half of society
prospers and the bottom remains poor. Therefore, our focus on wealth creation must encompass
both quantitative factors such as per capita GDP, as well as qualitative factors like education,
skills, and healthcare.

As both domestic companies and multinationals take advantage of India's market size, we will
need stronger mandates that compel corporates to rise to the challenge of enabling a social
structure that recognizes the core of our culture and aligns with our national needs.

India cannot be seen solely as a land for making profits and taking them out of its geographic
boundaries. This is why I said at the start that the superpowers in the multipolar world must
recognize that there is no one-size-fits-all democracy, and the aftertaste of globalization is not
as flat as predicted.

Let me close by saying that if there was ever a time to be Indian, it is now. The foundation to
build a new, resilient India has already been laid. We will be an India that taps into our own
markets to become self-reliant and a democracy that is based on dignity and equality. An India
that aspires with courage and is a responsible power, strong at its borders.

The policies that have been put in place have allowed our nation to make tremendous progress
over the last decade and put us firmly on the path to becoming an Atma Nirbhar Bharat, a self-
reliant India, and a society that is 100 percent literate, 100 percent healthy, and 100 percent
vocationally trained. Most importantly, a self-reliant India that has eliminated poverty forever,
all achieved well before 2050.

By: Aayush Gupta