Syllabus Basics Objectives Probability Conditional

MSA 8190 - Fall 2023

Statistical Foundation
Introduction and Probability Review

Mohammad Javad Feizollahi

August 21, 2023

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What is Analytics?

The science of using data to build models that lead to better

decisions that add value to individuals, to companies, to
institutions.

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Review of Syllabus

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Instructor Information

Instructor: Dr. Mohammad “Javad” Feizollahi

Office: Room No. 331, Buckhead Center
Office Hours: Mondays 10:30 AM-11:30 AM (Buckhead)
Make sure to schedule an appointment before coming to my
office!
Webex:
https://gsumeetings.webex.com/meet/mfeizollahi
Email: [email protected]

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Class Information

CRN Day Time Location

87469 Mondays 12:00 PM - 2:30 PM Buckhead (1212)
89147 Mondays 3:00 PM - 5:30 PM Buckhead (1212)

Website: iCollege - http://icollege.gsu.edu

Please enable notifications for this course to receive
announcements, updates, etc.
Software: R
You can download and install R for free from the following
website: http://www.cran.r-project.org

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Teaching Assistant’s Information

Jibi Jacob ([email protected])

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Lecture Notes and Textbooks

Main Reference:
Montgomery, Douglas C., and George C. Runger. “Applied statistics
and probability for engineers.” 7th Edition, John Wiley & Sons,
2020.
Other References:
James, Gareth, Daniela Witten, Trevor Hastie, and Robert
Tibshirani. “An introduction to statistical learning. ” 2nd Edition,
New York: Springer, 2021. (Available online at here for free!)
Cohen, Yosef, and Jeremiah Y. Cohen. “Statistics and Data with R:
An applied approach through examples.” John Wiley & Sons, 2008.
DeGroot, Morris H., and Mark J. Schervish. “Probability and
statistics.” 4th Edition, Pearson, 2011.
Bain, Lee J., and Max Engelhardt. “Introduction to probability and
mathematical statistics.” 2nd Edition, Brooks/Cole, 1992.
Casella, George, and Roger L. Berger. “Statistical inference.” 2nd
Edition, Pacific Grove, CA: Duxbury, 2002.
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Prerequisites: Review Questions

Prerequisite: Basic calculus and computer programming skills
————————————————————————————
How many “Yes” do you get?
1 Do you know probability distribution, PDF, CDF?
2 Can you describe discrete and continuous random variables?
3 Are you familiar with moments?
4 Can you calculate mean/variance of a random variable?
5 Do you know Exponential and Gamma distributions?
6 Are you familiar with Binomial distribution?
7 Are you familiar with Poisson distribution?
8 Do you know how to calculate probability associated with a
Normal distribution?
9 Can you calculate the integral and derivative of a function?
10 Do you know how to calculate the inverse of a 2-by-2 matrix
and the product of any two matrices by hand?
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Course Outcomes
By the end of the semester you will be able to:
Compute probabilities, percentiles, expected values, and
variances for different probability distributions
Summarize and interpret a data set using descriptive statistics;
Estimate parameters of a distribution based on a random
sample;
Construct confidence intervals for parameters of a distribution;
Make a decision about a population based on a random
sample;
Determine a probability distribution for a population based on
a random sample;
Predict a response variable based on one or more predictor
variables;
Identify important factors influencing a response variable.
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Grading

Course Works Percentages

Homework (7 sets of problems) 20%
Quizzes (4 quizzes) 20%
Exams (2 exams, each 25%) 50%
Attendance and Class Participation 10%

Every HW contains 5 or 6 questions to solve.

All submissions should be submitted electronically!
Every quiz contains 1 or 2 questions to solve.
The final grade conversion is based on the following table:
A+ A A- B+ B B- C+ C C- D F
≥ 97 ≥ 93 ≥ 90 ≥ 87 ≥ 83 ≥ 80 ≥ 77 ≥ 73 ≥ 70 ≥ 60 <60

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Class, Homework, Quiz, and Exam Rules

Please carefully read the class, exam, HW, and quiz rules in
the syllabus.
And respect them.
You are encouraged to discuss homework and learn from each
other, but each person must submit his/her own work.
Students copying from their classmates or from previous years’
assignments, or from any source will receive a zero score. In
addition, the student who let others copy from her/his
assignment will receive a zero score. There are no exceptions
to this rule! Further consequences are possible.
Any queries on homework, quiz or exam grades must be
submitted in writing via email to the instructor, together with
the scan of the homework in question.

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Academic Honor Code

All course participants are expected and required to abide by the

Georgia State University Honor Code (https://deanofstudents.
gsu.edu/student-conductpolicy-on-academic-honesty/).
Please familiarize yourself with the code, and use it to guide your
conduct. Specifically, you must do your own work in all homework
(unless the homework is specifically designated as a group
homework), quizzes and exams. Any form of academic dishonesty,
such as plagiarism, can result in a serious deduction from your final
grade or even a grade of F in the course.

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Tentative Lectures Schedule

The topics covered and the dates they are to be covered are
subject to change.
Date Topic Reading Events
08/21 Introduction & Probability Review Ch. 1 & 2
08/28 Discrete Distributions Ch. 3 HW 1
09/04 No Class Labor Day
09/11 Continuous Distributions Ch. 4 HW 2
09/18 Joint Distributions Ch. 5 Quiz 1
09/25 Sampling and Data Description Ch. 6 HW 3
10/2 Point Estimation Ch. 7 Quiz 2
10/9 Single Sample Hypothesis Testing Ch. 8&9 HW 4
10/16 Midterm Exam Midterm Exam
10/23 Two Samples Hypothesis Testing Ch. 10 HW 5
10/30 Simple Linear Regression Ch. 11 Quiz 3
11/06 Simple Linear Regression (cont.) Ch. 11 HW 6
11/13 Multiple Linear Regression Ch. 12 Quiz 4
11/20 No Class Fall Break
11/27 Analysis of Variance Ch. 13 HW 7
12/04 Final Exam/Project Presentation Final Exam

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Basic Concepts in Statistics

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Model

What is a model?

Simple Definition: (Merriam-Webster dictionary)

a usually small of something
a particular type or version of a product (such as a car or
computer)
a set of ideas and numbers that describe the past, present, or
future state of something (such as an economy or a business)
Definition 2: (Simulation Modeling and Analysis by Law and
Kelton)
A representation of the system that is studied as a surrogate
of the actual system

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Types of Models
Physical models: A smaller or larger
physical copy of an object

Schematic models: Represent a system

by and (e.g.,
flow diagram, flow process chart)

Analytical models: Mathematical and F =m×a

statistical representation of a system
And other models!

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Statistics and Statistical Thinking

The field of Statistics deals with the collection, presentation,

, and use of data to model systems, make
decisions, solve problems, and design products and processes.
**** Statistics is the science of data ****
Examples: Statistics helps us to
Predict the demand of a product / the stock prices
Select the best supplier with the least lead time (or highest
quality)
Monitor and control a process
Simulate and model an emergency room (ER)
Determine the probabilistic distribution of machines life
Design new products or services
etc.,

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Statistics and Statistical Thinking

Waiting time of customers in a bank:

4.62 3.49 4.21 4.2 5.55 5.71 6.28 5.93 5.04 3.75
6.46 3.99 2.9 4.5 4.2 5.47 4.81 3.82 4.98 4.44
2.23 6.48 5.99 7.08 5.66 4.25 3.44 5.81 6.04 5.58
5.18 5.2 5.88 5.93 7.12 4.22 5.33 4.13 4.85 6.87
4.59 4.54 7.45 4.65 4.36 6.33 3.34 3.56 2.81 5.59

Data → Statistics → Information

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Population Vs. Sample

Population: a finite well-defined group of ALL objects which,
although possibly large, can be enumerated in theory
(e.g. investigating ALL the waiting time of customers entered
into the bank today).
Sample: A sample is a SUBSET of a population
(e.g. select 50 out of 1,000 customers entered into the bank
today).

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Probability Vs. Statistics

Probability: given the information in

the pail, what is in your hand?

Statistics: given the information in

your hand, what is in the pail?

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Course Objectives

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Course Objectives (revisited)

Determine a probability distribution of a population based on a random sample

Estimate parameters of a distribution based on a random sample
Construct confidence intervals for parameters of a distribution

What is the probability that weekly sale of a restaurant is more

than $10K? P{X > 10, 000}

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Course Objectives (revisited)

Make a decision about a population based on a random sample

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Course Objectives (revisited)

Predict a response variable based on one or more predictor variables
Given the following data, what is the purity if hydrocarbon level is
1.05?
Observation Hydrocarbon Purity
Number Level x (%) y (%)
1 0.99 90.01
2 1.02 89.05
3 1.15 91.43
4 1.29 93.74
5 1.46 96.73
6 1.36 94.45
7 0.87 87.59
8 1.23 91.77
9 1.55 99.42
10 1.40 93.65
11 1.19 93.54
12 1.15 92.52
13 0.98 90.56
14 1.01 89.54
15 1.11 89.85
16 1.20 90.39
17 1.26 93.25
18 1.32 93.41
19 1.43 94.98
20 0.95 87.33

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Course Objectives (revisited)

Identify important factors influencing a response variable

What are important variables affecting the waiting time in ER?


Type of emergency cares 

Physicians’ experience and skills 


Time of day → Waiting time in ER
Number of nurses




Capacity of ER


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Data Collection
Three basic methods for collecting data:
A retrospective study using historical data
A lot of data
Relatively little useful information
Missing data
Transcription or recording errors
Other important factors may not have been collected
An observational study
The process or population is observed with as little as possible
disturbance, and the quantities of interest are recorded.
Variables that are not routinely measured can be included.
A designed experiment
The engineer or designer makes deliberate or purposeful
changes in the controllable variables of the system or process,
observes the resulting system output data, and then makes an
inference or decision about which variables are responsible for
the observed changes in output performance.
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Data Collection

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Statistics and Statistical Thinking

Statistical techniques are useful for describing and

understanding .
By variability, we mean successive observations of a system or
phenomenon do not produce exactly the same result.
Statistics gives us a framework for describing this variability
and for learning about potential sources of variability.

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Probability Theory

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Sets

Set: A collection of objects (elements)

Examples:
{head, tail}
Set of non-negative real numbers
Set of people enrolled in this class
{alive, dead}
B is a subset of A if and only if all the elements of B are also
elements of A.
Mathematical notation: B ⊂ A ⇔ a ∈ A, ∀a ∈ B
Empty or null set (∅) has no elements
Undelying space or universe S
Ex. : A = {x ∈ R : x ≥ 0}

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Sets of Natural, Integer, Rational and Real Numbers

Natural numbers: N = {1, 2, 3, · · · }
These are numbers that are used for counting and ordering.
Integers: Z = {· · · − 3, −2, −1, 0, 1, 2, 3, · · · }
Numbers that can be written without a component.
Rational numbers (Q): Numbers that can be expressed as the
p
quotient or fraction of two integers, p and q, with the
q
2
denominator q not equal to zero. Ex.: or 3.51
7
Real numbers (R): A real number is a value that represents a
quantity along a continuous line.
√
Irrational numbers: Qc = R\Q. Ex. : 2, π, e

N⊂Z⊂Q⊂R
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Uncertainty

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Probability

Study of uncertainty
Examples:
Coin flips
Product life time
Demand for a service
Car crash
...
Chance of an event occurrence
A real number between 0 and 1
The closer to 1, the more likely the event

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Trials, Events, Experiments

Outcome: Any observable phenomenon

Sample space: Set of all possible outcomes (denoted by S or
Ω)
Event: Any subset of
Elementary or simple event: An event with one outcome
Disjoint events: A ∩ B = ∅
Trial : A single performance of an experiment whose outcome
is in S
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Trials, Events, Experiments

Bernoulli trial: A trial with only possible outcomes,

one arbitrarily named a success and the other a failure.
Experiment: A trial with more than one possible outcomes

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Probability

Definition: The probability of event A, denoted by P(A), is

the value approached by the relative frequency of occurrences
of A in a long series of replications of a chance experiment.
Properties:
1 For any event A, 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1.
2 The probabilities of all elementary events must sum to 1.
3 Let A be composed of a set of elementary events. Then, P(A)
is the sum of the probabilities of all elementary events
contained in A.
4 For any event A, P(A) + P(Ā) = 1, where Ā is the of
A.

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Addition Rules
For any pair of events A and B:

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B).

If A and B are mutually exclusive events,

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B).

For any three of events A, B, and C :

P(A ∪ B ∪ C ) =P(A) + P(B) + P(C ) − P(A ∩ B) − P(A ∩ C )

− P(B ∩ C ) + P(A ∩ B ∩ C ).

For a collection of mutually exclusive events E1 , E2 , · · · , En ,

P(E1 ∪ E2 ∪ · · · ∪ En ) = P(E1 ) + P(E2 ) + · · · + P(En )

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Equally Likely Events

Events with equal probability of occurrence

Flip a coin
Roll a die
Pick a ball from a bag of 5 white and 10 black balls

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Two dice

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Example (Exercise 2-54)

Cooking oil is produced in two main varieties: mono and
polyunsaturated. Two common sources of cooking oil are corn and
canola. The following table shows the number of bottles of these
oils at a supermarket:
type of oil
type of unsaturation canola corn
mono 7 13
poly 93 77
1 If a bottle of oil is selected at random, what is the probability
that it belongs to the polyunsaturated category?
2 What is the probability that the chosen bottle is
monounsaturated canola oil?
3 What is the probability that the chosen bottle is
monounsaturated or canola oil?
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Conditional Probability and

Independence

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Conditional Probability

The occurrence of one event might change the likelihood of

another.
Let E and F be two events with P(F ) > 0. Then the
conditional probability of E given that F has occurred is

P(E ∩ F )
P(E |F ) = .
P(F )

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Example 4.27

Suppose that in a population, 0.1% have a certain disease.

A diagnostic test is available, but it is correct in only 80% of
the cases; diagnosing the disease when a person is actually
infected.
The other 20% show false positives.
Now choose a person from the population randomly and
consider the following events:
E , an individual carries the disease, and
F , an individual’s diagnostic test result is positive.
Let P(E |F ) denote the probability of E given F . Then from
the data
P(E ) = 0.001, P(E |F ) = 0.8.

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Example 4.29

The seed banks in two prairie areas, labeled A and B, were

studied.
The data consist of the relative number of seeds of three
major grass species; call them a, b and c.
The table below shows the fraction of the seeds from each
species and area.
Species
Area a b c Total
A 0.40 0.21 0.09 0.70
B 0.10 0.09 0.11 0.3
Total 0.50 0.30 0.20 1.00
Joint and marginal probabilities

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Example 4.29

Consider the following events:

Species
Area a b c Total E : a selected seed is from area A
A 0.40 0.21 0.09 0.70
B 0.10 0.09 0.11 0.3 F : a selected seed is from species a.
Total 0.50 0.30 0.20 1.00
G : a selected seed is from species c
P(E ∩ F )
P(E |F ) = = > P(E ) = 0.70
P(F )
P(E ∩ F )
P(F |E ) = = >P(F ) = 0.50
P(E )
P(E ∩ G )
P(E |G ) = = <P(E ) = 0.70
P(G )

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Independence

Events E and F are said to be independent if P(E |F ) = P(E ).

If E and F are not independent then we say that they are
dependent.
If events E and F independent, then
P(E ∩ F ) = P(E )P(F ) (An alternative definition)
Ē and F are independent
E and F̄ are independent
Ē and F̄ are independent
If events E1 , E2 , · · · En are independent, then

P(E1 ∩ E2 ∩ · · · ∩ En ) = P(E1 )P(E2 ) · · · P(En ).

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Probability of Union of Events

P(E ∪ F ) = P(E ) + P(F ) − P(E ∩ F )

Example 4.34: Of the students in an Ecology class, 60% took

statistics, 40% took calculus and 25% took both. Select a student
randomly.
E : selected student took statistics
F : selected student took calculus
G : selected student took at least one of the courses
H: selected student took none of the courses
P(G ) = P(E ∪ F ) = P(E ) + P(F ) − P(E ∩ F )
= = 0.75

P(H) = 1 − P(G ) = = 0.25

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Total Probability Theorem and Bayes Rule

Suppose that A1 , A2 , · · · , An are mutually exclusive events

whose union is the sample space, S.
Let B be any event in S.
Total Probability Theorem says:
n
X
P(B) = P(Ai )P(B|Ai )
i=1

Based on Bayes Rule

P(Ak ∩ B) P(Ak )P(B|Ak )

P(Ak |B) = =
P(B)

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Example

In a certain county
60% of registered voters are Republicans
30% are Democrats
10% are Independents.
When those voters were asked about increasing military
spending
40% of Republicans opposed it
65% of the Democrats opposed it
55% of the Independents opposed it.
What is the probability that a randomly selected voter in this
county opposes increased military spending?

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Example (cont.)

Ω = {registered voters in the county}

R = {registered republicans}, P(R) = 0.6
D = {registered democrats}, P(D) = 0.3
I = {registered independents}, P(I ) = 0.1
B = {registered voters opposing increased military spending},
We know P(B|R) = 0.4, P(B|D) = 0.65, and P(B|I ) = 0.55
By the total probability theorem:

P(B) = P(B|R)P(R) + P(B|D)P(D) + P(B|I )P(I )

= = 0.49

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Example (cont.)

A registered voter from our county writes a letter to the local

paper, arguing against increased military spending. What is
the probability that this voter is a Democrat?
Presumably that is P(D|B), so by Bayes theorem:

P(B|D)P(D)
P(D|B) =
P(B|R)P(R) + P(B|D)P(D) + P(B|I )P(I )
0.65 × 0.3
=
0.195
= = 0.398
0.49

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Random Variable
A random variable is a function that assigns a real number to
each outcome in the sample space of a random experiment.
A random variable is denoted by an uppercase letter such as
X.
After an experiment is conducted, the measured value of the
random variable is denoted by a lowercase letter such as
x = 70 milliamperes.
A discrete random variable is a random variable with a finite
(or countably infinite) range. Examples are: number of
patients admitted to ER, number of defected goods produced,
number of transmitted bits received in error.
A continuous random variable is a random variable with an
interval (either finite or infinite) of real numbers for its range.
Examples are: electrical current, length, pressure,
temperature, time, voltage, weight.
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