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An international comparative study on the low-carbon

development of the steel industry empowered by the digital


economy

Abstract

This article draws on WSA member countries as sample countries to construct


a low-level indicator system for the digital economy and steel industry. After
applying the monetary value method and CRITIC weighting method for weighting,
after conducting a consistency test on the weight values, a multiplicative weighting
combination is used for weighting. The following is a comprehensive score of the
digital economy development level and low-carbon level of the steel industry in
WSA member countries from 2010 to 2022. On this basis, a panel is constructed to
support the self -regression model to dynamically analyze the relationship between
the digital economy and the low-carbon level of the steel industry. The impact of
the digital economy on the low-carbon development subsystem of the steel industry
is analyzed through system generalized moment estimation. of the digital economy
on the steel industry is also analyzed. The impact of the industry's low-carbon
development subsystem and the impact of the digital economy subsystem on the
steel industry's low-carbon development subsystem. The research results show that
the digital economy can empower the low-carbon development of the steel industry,
and this impact has a time lag effect. Its promotion effect on the steel industry
reaches its peak in the Youth League, and then gradually peels off over time.

Key Words: digital economy, steel industry, low carbon development,


dynamic panel

-I-
directory
Abstract .................................................................................................................... I
1 Introduction ...........................................................................................................1
1.1 Research background ............................................................................1
1.2 Research significance ...........................................................................2
1.3 Research content ...................................................................................4
2Literature review ....................................................................................................6
2.1 Explanation of the concept of digital economy ....................................6
2.2 Digital economy measurement .............................................................7
2.3 Measurement of the development degree of low-carbon economy ......8
2.4 Literature review ...................................................................................9
3 Measurement of digital economy development level ......................................... 11
3.1 Research methods ............................................................................... 11
3.1.1 Entropy method................................................................................ 11
3.1.2 CRITC Law Empowerment ............................................................. 11
3.1.3 Multiplicative weighted combination weighting .............................12
3.2 Sample selection and data sources ......................................................13
3.3 Comprehensive weight calculation and measurement results ............14
3.3.1 Combination weight.........................................................................14
3.3.2 WSA comprehensive score of national digital economy level ........16
4 Measurement of low-carbon development of the steel industry .........................17
4.1 Sample selection and data sources ......................................................17
4.2 Comprehensive weight calculation and measurement results ............17
4.2.1 Combination weight.........................................................................17
4.2.2 Analysis of low-carbon level of WSA national steel industry .........18
5 Empirical research on digital economy empowering low-carbon development of
the steel industry ....................................................................................................20
5.1 Panel vector autoregressive model .....................................................20
5.2 LLC stationarity test ...........................................................................20
5.3 Analysis of empirical results ...............................................................21
5.3.1 Selection of lag order .......................................................................22
5.3.2 System generalized moment estimation ..........................................22
5.3.3 Granger causality test.......................................................................23
5.3.4 Impulse response analysis................................................................23
5.3.5 Variance decomposition ...................................................................25
5.4 The driving effect of digital infrastructure on the low-carbon
development of the steel industry .............................................................26
5.4.1 Optimal lag order selection ..............................................................26
5.4.2 System generalized moment estimation ..........................................26
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5.4.3 Granger causality test ...................................................................... 27
5.4.4 Impulse response analysis ............................................................... 27
5.4.5 Variance decomposition .................................................................. 28
5.5 The driving effect of technological innovation on the low-carbon
development of the steel industry............................................................. 29
5.5.1 Determination of the optimal lag order ........................................... 29
5.5.2 System generalized moment estimation .......................................... 29
5.5.3 Impulse response analysis ............................................................... 30
5.5.4 Variance decomposition .................................................................. 31
5.6 The driving effect of digital environment on the low-carbon
development of the steel industry............................................................. 32
5.6.1 Determination of the optimal lag order ........................................... 32
5.6.2 System generalized moment estimation .......................................... 32
5.6.3 Impulse response analysis ............................................................... 33
5.6.4 Variance decomposition .................................................................. 34
5.7 Summary of this chapter .................................................................... 35
6Conclusion and outlook ....................................................................................... 36
6.1 Research conclusion ........................................................................... 36
6.2 Research prospects ............................................................................. 36
references ............................................................................................................... 39

-IV-
1 Introduction

1.1 Research background

In March 2024, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released the "2023
Carbon Emissions Report." The report mentioned that in 2023, global energy
carbon dioxide emissions increased by 1.1%, an absolute increase of 410 million
tons, reaching a record high of 37.4 billion tons, of which coal carbon emissions
accounted for more than 65% of the increase. In 2023, my country's carbon
emissions will increase by about 565 million tons, continuing my country's high-
carbon emissions economic model, with the largest increase among countries in the
world. At present, my country's per capita carbon emissions are 15% higher than
those of developed economies. Greenhouse gas emissions have led to rising global
temperatures. As the world's second largest economy and the largest carbon emitter,
my country must assume its emission reduction responsibilities and promote low-
carbon development.
Among industrial categories, the carbon emissions of the steel industry
account for 15% of the country's total carbon emissions, ranking first among the 31
industry categories in my country's manufacturing industry; my country's crude
steel output has always accounted for more than half of the world, and the steel
industry's carbon emissions account for 15% of the total. More than 60% of the total
carbon emissions of the global steel industry are the largest source of carbon
emissions in the global steel industry. As a traditional high-energy-consuming
industry, the steel industry needs to gradually transform into high-tech, low-carbon
and environmentally friendly industries.
In the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, General
Secretary Xi Jinping proposed the concepts of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,
which raised new requirements and challenges for my country's steel industry. In
January 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other
departments jointly issued the "Implementation Guidelines for Digital
Transformation of the Steel Industry", pointing out that the digital economy needs
to empower the development of the steel industry, and proposed that by 2026, the
overall level of digitalization of the steel industry will be significantly improved,
requiring emerging information Technology is deeply integrated into the steel
industry, continuing to improve the industry's digital ecosystem, and basically
realizing a systematic and global digital steel industry.

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In the "14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development
of the People's Republic of China and the Outline of Long-term Goals for 2035"
and the "14th Five-Year Plan for Digital Economy Development", my country has
proposed the combination of digital economy and low-carbon development. , to
determine my country’s carbon peak and carbon-neutral development path. With
the high degree of policy support in my country, the steel industry urgently needs
to accelerate the digitalization process, promote the optimization of industrial
structure, and develop a low-carbon economy intelligently and efficiently[1].
The digital economy can provide new impetus for industrial structure
upgrading for traditional industries. It can use and integrate digital information
technologies such as big data, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things to
monitor and intelligently manage the production processes of traditional industries
in real time, and track specific energy consumption and emissions in real time.
situation, simplify the production process, and reduce unnecessary energy
consumption and production costs[2].
In terms of comprehensive utilization of resources, the digital economy
provides a digital platform for raw material procurement, manufacturing and
product sales in the steel industry, enabling refined management. For example, an
intelligent logistics system can be established to optimize the transportation routes
of raw materials and finished products, reducing unnecessary waste of resources
and energy consumption emissions; intelligent management of warehousing can
improve management efficiency and reduce resource waste.
In summary, the traditional steel industry can control energy consumption and
emission levels, improve internal resource utilization efficiency, and promote the
low-carbon and sustainable development of the steel industry by using information
technology in the digital economy.

1.2 Research significance

Digital economy is an economic form that digitizes information based on


communication technology. It can promote traditional industries and realize the
transformation of industrial structure. Among them, the steel industry uses digital
design, automated production processes and intelligent management to promote
more scientific and intelligent production methods, enhance resource utilization
efficiency, and improve the sustainability of development. With the continuous
development of the digital economy, the role of the digital economy in promoting
green technology innovation in the steel industry has gradually emerged.
In terms of specific practice, studying the development role of the digital
economy in empowering the steel industry can stimulate digital technology to boost
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R&D and production efficiency within the industry, strengthen cross-industry
exchanges and cooperation, and thus stimulate low-carbon technological
innovation capabilities.
The digital economy can unite enterprises, higher education institutions,
scientific research departments and government agencies to establish cooperation
mechanisms, realize resource complementation and sharing, and promote close
collaboration among multiple entities. Especially in terms of digital analysis and
network applications, it can significantly strengthen information exchange among
various innovation entities, reduce information barriers, and promote technological
innovation cooperation.
In addition, advanced information technology and digital services also provide
digital platforms and data resources for the research and development of green
technologies; driven by high-tech information technology, the digital economy also
provides the construction of infrastructure such as computing centers, data storage,
and integration. and analytical capabilities, providing an efficient work platform
and huge database support for high-tech research and development. It can more
clearly quantify and compare R&D effects, promote green total factor productivity,
and promote further development of the steel industry in the field of low-carbon
economy.
Generally speaking, the digital economy can promote the real economy,
including the steel industry, towards low-carbon sustainable development and the
effective upgrading and transformation of the industrial structure, and provide a
boost for green technological innovation in the steel industry. Through information
sharing jointly constructed by multiple entities, The mechanism of resource
complementarity and cooperative innovation can promote the low-carbon
development transformation of the steel industry and move towards sustainable
goals. As digital technology continues to advance and integrate with the real
economy, green innovative technologies in the steel industry will continue to
develop under this driving force.
In terms of theoretical research, although there have been studies that have
explored the influencing factors of energy conservation and emission reduction
efficiency from aspects such as industrial structure, energy structure, marketization
process and technological innovation, few studies have included the digital
economy into the influencing factors of low-carbon development. Perform analysis.
Under the constraints of the "double carbon" goal, energy conservation and
emission reduction measures mainly cover two aspects: energy conservation and
pollutant emission reduction.

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As a leading country in global Internet applications, our country's digital
market and technology are developing at an alarming rate. With the widespread
application of digital technology in resource allocation, energy utilization,
environmental protection and innovation activities, its role in achieving the "double
carbon" goal has attracted increasing attention. The digital economy built by the
new generation of information technology is providing momentum for the
development of high-quality manufacturing and promoting the development of
industries in the direction of advanced and low-carbon development. The core
competitiveness of the digital economy is to improve the efficiency of social
resource allocation, which makes it have broad application prospects in multiple
industrial fields.
In view of the shortcomings of existing research and the strong momentum of
my country's digital economy and the urgent need for digital transformation of the
steel industry, this study focuses on the enabling role of the digital economy in the
low-carbon development of the steel industry and enriches related research on the
role of the digital economy in the real economy. This research has certain practical
significance for responding to the current global carbon emissions problem and for
my country to actively promote social emission reduction measures and promote
the prosperity and development of the regional digital economy in the new era.

1.3 Research content

Chapter 1, Introduction; mainly introduces the research background and


significance of this article; combs the international carbon emission levels, analyzes
the enabling role of the digital economy on the steel industry and the shortcomings
of existing literature from both practical and theoretical aspects.
Chapter 2, literature review; combs and analyzes the existing domestic and
foreign literature on the development level of the global digital economy and the
measurement of low-carbon development of the steel industry to provide a
theoretical basis for the feasibility of this article.
Chapter 3, Measurement of Digital Economy Development Level; Analyzing
the digital economy level and development status of WSA countries, establishing a
digital economy development level indicator system based on previous research,
using the entropy method and CRITIC combination weighting, and obtained 56
WSA member countries The country's comprehensive digital economy score, and a
detailed interpretation of the current situation of developing countries and
developed countries.
Chapter 4: Analysis and measurement of the current situation of low-carbon
development of the steel industry; analyzing the current situation of low-carbon
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development of the steel industry, constructing a low-carbon level index system for
the steel industry, using the entropy method and CRITIC combination weighting,
and obtaining the results of 56 countries among WSA member states comprehensive
low-carbon level score, and analyze the development trends of developing countries
and developed countries.
Chapter 5: Empirical research on the low-carbon development of the steel
industry empowered by the digital economy; by building a panel vector
autoregressive model to analyze the dynamic relationship between the two; through
system generalized moment estimation, impulse response analysis, Granger test,
and variance decomposition and other steps to empirically analyze the impact of
the digital economy and its subsystems on the low-carbon level of the steel industry.
Chapter Six, Conclusion and Outlook; summarizes the relationship between
the digital economy and the low-carbon development of the steel industry derived
from the preliminary empirical research, and analyzes the shortcomings of this
article.

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2Literature review

2.1 Explanation of the concept of digital economy

The integration of the digital economy and the real economy has only been
proposed in recent years, so scholars have not done much research on this concept.
At the same time, integration involves different aspects, levels, and contents, and it
is an extremely abstract and broad concept. Among them, Yu Le and Pan
Xinxing[3]believe that: in a narrow sense, it refers to the process of integrating
digital information technology with industry, agriculture, construction and
commerce, and related material production; in a broad sense, it refers to the
industrialized society. process and the social process of digitization.
Yan Deli[4]believes that the product of the integration of the digital economy
and the real economy is the "digital real economy", which is the main component
of the digital economy and its main body belongs to the real economy; Wu
Hequan[5]Based on the understanding that the digital economy is the digital
industrial economy and the digital agricultural economy, it is believed that the
digital economy is the real economy.
The above scholars basically have the same view on the digital economy. They
believe that the digital economy can drive the development of the real economy and
is the driving force and source of the real economy. Wang Yanan[6]Based on the
development status of my country's manufacturing industry, combined with the
advantages and disadvantages of the manufacturing industry, Wang Yanan
proposed that the integration of the digital economy and the real economy can not
only change the original growth model of the manufacturing industry, but also
enhance the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry. , and can find new
growth points in the manufacturing industry through the development of producer
services.
Liu Jichao and Pang Yang[7]proposed that based on information technology,
promoting the digital revolution of manufacturing and the distributed energy
Internet can enable large-scale customization, socialization, and networking of
production methods, and gradually Form an open, cooperative and decentralized
business model and business structure. The use of informatization to transform the
production, manufacturing and operation management of the entire link is the main
way to promote the traditional manufacturing industry to gradually move towards
green and low-carbon development, and to enhance the competitiveness of the
manufacturing industry. Chen Yangcai[8]pointed out that driven by the integration
of industrialization and industrialization, the transformation and upgrading of the
industrial structure of the coal industry has achieved obvious results. The upgrading
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of industrial technology has achieved efficient utilization of coal resources,
allowing the coal industry to gradually develop low-carbon Economy and improve
the manufacturing level of coal machinery equipment.

2.2 Digital economy measurement

With the development of the digital economy, in order to accurately understand


the digital economy and clarify the development level of the digital economy, its
evaluation method is very important for studying the overall economic development.
The practice of quantitative research on the data economy can be traced back to at
least the 1990s, such as Jorgenson[9], Stiroh[10], etc. These documents laid the
foundation for quantitative research on the digital economy. Base.
Sidorov and Senchenko[11]established a comprehensive index model based on
the three principles of level, block and balance to study the development levels of
regions of different scales in the digital economy. Strassner and Jessica[12]measure
the level of digital economy from aspects related to digital infrastructure, digital
services and e-commerce. Chinoracky and Corejova[13]constructed an indicator
system for the digital economy by measuring economic, labor and skill-related
indicators related to the region.
Liu Jun[14]divided the scope of digital economy from three perspectives:
informatization, Internet, and digital transactions, constructed indicators from two
aspects: foundation and impact, and studied the digital economy development index
and its impact through linear weighting factor. Hong Jia[15]measured the digital
economy from the aspects of communication industry, service industry, information
manufacturing, digital infrastructure, etc., extracted effective common factors
through the subjective weighting method of principal component analysis, and
measured the digital economy. Comprehensive measurement of the development
level of the digital economy in the triangular region. Xu Xianchun and Zhang
Meihui[16]believe that the digital economy should be measured from aspects such
as infrastructure, digital transactions and digital media; Tang Ruyu[17]includes
network-related evaluation indicators within the scope of measurement, A
comprehensive measurement was conducted based on relevant ICT laws, network
competition services, network security awareness and other aspects to measure the
environmental level of the digital economy. Wang Juanjuan and Yu
Qianjun[18]comprehensively measured the development level of the digital
economy from digital payment-related indicators such as innovation capabilities,
intellectual payment, and digital applications. Du Chuanzhong and Guan
Haifeng[19]also considered digital inclusive finance in the indicator system,
enriching the indicator construction aspects of the development level of the digital
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economy.
To sum up, the above scholars have used two methods to measure the
development level of the digital economy. They are to measure and determine the
scale of the digital economy in the region, and to decompose the dimensions of the
digital economy, build an indicator system, and measure the digital economy
through a comprehensive index. The second method considers more comprehensive
aspects. Based on the research of previous scholars, this article uses decomposing
the dimensions of the digital economy and constructing an index system to measure
the level of the digital economy.

2.3 Measurement of the development degree of low-carbon


economy

The term "low carbon economy" appeared in articles in the late 1990s, but in
2003 the UK government published an energy report on creating a low carbon
economy. To make the UK a truly low-carbon economy by providing energy and
reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The report first proposed the concept of "low-
carbon economy", which can reduce energy consumption and environmental
pollution. Although this report does not clearly define "low-carbon economy", since
the term "low-carbon economy" was proposed, many scholars at home and abroad
have conducted in-depth discussions on it and put forward many new perspectives.
Different scholars' research on low-carbon development mainly conducts in-
depth analysis from the aspects of policies and regulations, influencing factors, and
development paths. Mulugetta and Urban[20]pointed out that countries should learn
from the climate change policies of other countries and incorporate low-carbon
development measures into development policies based on their own realities.
Xin[21]et al. conducted an in-depth discussion on the connotation and influencing
factors of inclusive low-carbon development on the basis of research on low-carbon
development. The study found that my country’s inclusive low-carbon development
level has grown steadily, and urbanization and Human factors have a significant
impact on inclusive low-carbon development.
Gupta[22]explored the macroeconomic consequences of India's existing low-
carbon path through energy and economic modeling. The research results show that
the low-carbon path can enable the Indian economy to achieve inclusive and rapid
growth. Barron[23]believes that publicizing and popularizing carbon neutrality from
higher education institutions can help change policies and markets on a larger scale,
which is beneficial to the United States' achievement of carbon neutrality goals.
Zhou Li[24]et al. sorted out the existing results in the field of low-carbon
development research, and the research results show that measures to control
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greenhouse gases can bring better environmental and economic benefits.
Research on low-carbon development evaluation is mainly reflected in the
differences in evaluation objects, evaluation methods and evaluation index systems.
The low-carbon development level evaluation system selects environmental
protection and low-carbon indicators. Different scholars have different priorities in
constructing the evaluation index system, and use different methods for
comprehensive evaluation, such as the analytic hierarchy process, the entropy
weight method, and the gray correlation method. and data envelopment analysis
methods to evaluate the low-carbon development levels of different industries or
regions. Some scholars study low-carbon development from the regional level.
Jiang Jinhe[25]By evaluating the low-carbon development of 30 provinces and
municipalities across the country, he concluded that economy and energy are the
main factors driving the increase in carbon emissions in each region. Wu Yiqing
and Yao Lianxiao[26]evaluated the low-carbon development level of the Beijing-
Tianjin-Hebei region by measuring carbon total factor productivity. The analysis
results showed that the low-carbon development level of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
region has a large gap, and it should start from energy, industry , Promote low-
carbon development from a digital perspective.
Through the above literature, the measurement of low-carbon development
levels at home and abroad is basically limited to a certain area. An indicator system
is constructed from relevant environmental protection and low-carbon indicators
such as carbon emission levels and carbon emission technologies, and different
regions are analyzed through different methods.

2.4 Literature review

In summary, the above scholars’ research on the development and integration


of the digital economy and the real economy provides a reference path for the
transformation and upgrading of low-carbon development in my country’s steel
industry. Among them, more scholars focus on the integration of the digital
economy and the real economy, while there is relatively little literature on
promoting the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure, and empirical
analyzes tend to focus on the impact of the level of digital economy in a certain
region or country on the upgrading of industrial structure. Regarding the related
impact, there is a lack of more fine-grained research on the upgrading of the
industrial structure of the real economy by the digital economy, that is, there is a
lack of detailed research on the impact of the digital economy on the low-carbon
development and innovation capabilities of the real economy.
Judging from the current literature, most research on the digital economy is
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based on the "digital" or information technology perspective, and there are fewer
literatures from the economic perspective. And because the integration of the digital
economy and the real economy was only proposed in 2016, this aspect Research
consulting organizations, Internet companies, etc. have conducted more research
than scholars.
In low-carbon related research, there are many documents that explore low-
carbon development issues and carbon dioxide emission issues. Most scholars study
low-carbon development level issues and carbon dioxide emission issues separately,
and few documents combine the two. Among them, there are more empirical and
case studies conducted in specific subdivision areas, and less systematic theoretical
analysis.

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3 Measurement of digital economy development level

3.1 Research methods

3.1.1 Entropy method

When weighting data, subjective weighting method and objective weighting


method can be used. Since the subjective weighting method involves more
qualitative analysis and lacks objectivity[27], this article adopts the objective
analysis method. The entropy value method[28]performs preliminary weighting on
the data. The entropy weight method is based on the impact of the numerical
changes of each indicator on the whole. The greater the amount of information
contained in the indicator, that is, the greater the entropy value, the greater the
weight. The smaller[29].
(1) Data standardization
When the measurement units and directions of various indicators are
inconsistent, the data needs to be standardized to avoid meaningless entropy values;
𝑖𝑗𝑍 −min 𝑍𝑗
For positive indicators: 𝑋𝑖𝑗 = max(𝑍 (3-1)
𝑗 )−min⁡(𝑍𝑗 )
𝑚𝑎𝑥(𝑍𝑗 )−𝑍𝑖𝑗
For negative indicators: 𝑋𝑖𝑗 = 𝑚𝑎𝑥(𝑍 (3-2)
𝑗 )−𝑚𝑖𝑛(𝑍𝑗 )

(2) Calculate the characteristic proportion of the i-th evaluation sample in the
j-th indicator𝑃𝑖𝑗
𝑥
𝑃𝑖𝑗 = ∑𝑚 𝑖𝑗𝑋 (3-3)
𝑖=1 𝑖𝑗

(3) Calculate indicator entropy value𝑒𝑗


1
𝑒𝑗 = − 𝑙𝑛(𝑚) ∑𝑚
𝑖=1 𝑃𝑖𝑗 𝑙𝑛(𝑃𝑖𝑗 )(3-4)

(4) Calculate the difference coefficient and evaluation index weight𝜔𝑖𝑗


𝑔𝑗
𝜔𝑖𝑗 = ∑𝑛 (3-5)
𝑘=1 𝑔𝑘

where𝑔𝑗 = 1 − 𝑒𝑗 ,𝑒𝑗 is the difference coefficient


(5) Calculate the comprehensive score of each sample.
𝑄𝑗 = ∑𝑚𝑗=1 𝜔 ∗ 𝑋𝑖𝑗 (3-6)

3.1.2 CRITC Law Empowerment

The CRITIC method was proposed in 1995. It is an objective weighting


method. The main principle is to determine the objective weight of the indicator by
comparing the strength and the conflict between indicators[30], so as to achieve The
objective weight assignment of the indicator system is suitable for data with a
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certain correlation between indicators.
(1) Data standardization processing
Assuming that there are m objects to be evaluated and n evaluation indicators,
X=(x_ij)_(m×n) can be formed. Assume that the elements in the data matrix after

normalization are𝑥𝑖𝑗 ;
For positive indicators:
′ 𝑖𝑗𝑥 −𝑚𝑖𝑛(𝑥𝑗 )
𝑥𝑖𝑗 = 𝑚𝑎𝑥(𝑥 (3-7)
𝑗 )−𝑚𝑖𝑛(𝑥𝑗 )

For negative indicators:


′ 𝑚𝑎𝑥(𝑥𝑗 )−𝑥𝑖𝑗
𝑥𝑖𝑗 = 𝑚𝑎𝑥(𝑥 (3-8)
𝑗 )−𝑚𝑖𝑛(𝑥𝑗 )

(2) Calculate information carrying capacity


First calculate the contrast intensity of the j-th indicator:
∑𝑚 ′ ′
𝑖=1 (𝑥𝑖𝑗 −𝑥̅ 𝑗 )
𝜎𝑗 = √ (3-9)
𝑚−1

Secondly, calculate the conflict between evaluation indicators:


Conflict reflects the degree of correlation between different indicators. If there is
a significant positive correlation, the smaller the conflict value. Assume that the
contradiction between indicator j and other indicators is𝑓𝑗 , then:
𝑓𝑗 = ∑𝑚
𝑖=1 (1 − 𝑟𝑖𝑗 )(3-10)

Among them,𝑟𝑖𝑗 represents the correlation coefficient between indicator i and


indicator j. The Pearson correlation coefficient is used here.
Finally calculate the information carrying capacity:
𝐶𝑗 = 𝜎𝑗 𝑓𝑗 (3-11)
(3) Calculate weights and scores
The calculated weight is:
𝐶𝑗
𝑤𝑗 = ∑𝑛 (3-12)
𝑗=1 𝐶𝑗

The calculated score is:


𝑆𝑖 = ∑𝑛𝑗=1 𝑤𝑗 𝑥𝑖𝑗

(3-13)

3.1.3 Multiplicative weighted combination weighting

(1) Consistency test


Before combining the two data to weight, it is necessary to conduct a
consistency test on the two weight values; based on the consistency coefficient⁡𝜌,
the correlation degree of the two weighting methods can be expressed. The specific
formula is as follows:
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6 2
𝜌 = 1 − 𝑛(𝑛2−1) ∑𝑛𝑗=1 (𝜔𝑗∗ − 𝜔𝑗∗ ) (3-14)

If𝜌 ∈ (0,1], the two weighting methods are considered consistent and can be
combined for weighting.
(2) Multiplicative weighted combination weighting
In order to integrate the advantages of the two weight calculations and make up
for their shortcomings, the weights obtained by the entropy weight method and the
CRITIC method are combined and empowered. Common combination weighting
includes multiplicative combination weighting and additive average combination
weighting[31], etc. Since the selection of the additive average combination weighting
preference coefficient is subjective[32], This paper adopts multiplicative
combination weighting method for weighting;
The combination weight determined by multiplicative weighting is to multiply
the weights of the indicators and then normalize them. The specific formula is as
follows:
𝑝 𝑞
𝑊𝑗 = ∑𝑚 𝑗 𝑝𝑗 𝑞 (3-15)
𝑖=1 𝑗 𝑗

3.2 Sample selection and data sources

Based on the research of scholars such as Chu Xiye[33]and Li Chun'e[34], this


article takes the digital economy as the main indicator, focusing on three aspects:
digital infrastructure, technological innovation, and digital environment. Starting
from the second-level indicators, 24 third-level indicators were selected to measure
the digital economy level of WSA member countries. See Table 3-1 for details.

Table 3-1 WSA national digital economy level measurement indicator system
First level Secondary
Level three indicators source variable direction
indicator indicators
Number of mobile network users WDI X1 +
Landline penetration rate WDI X2 +
Fixed broadband penetration WDI X3 +
digital
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per
infrastructure WDI X4 +
100 people)
Digital
Secure Internet Servers (per million
economy level WDI X5 +
people)
Scientific and technical journal
WDI X6 +
Technological articles
innovation R&D expenditure as a share of
WDI X7 +
GDP
-13-
Share of labor force with higher
WDI X9 +
education
Higher education enrollment rate WDI X10 +
ICT cutting-edge technology
UNCTAD X11 +
readiness
Proportion of total education
WDI X12 +
expenditure
Availability of latest technology WEF X13 +
Number of ICT-related papers
SJR X14 +
published
Ease of doing business score WDI X15 +
Ease of starting a business score WDI X16 +
Transparency in government
digital WEF X17 +
decision-making
environment
Telecom services revenue (USD) ITU X18 +
Mobile network revenue (USD) ITU X19 +
ICT service export WDI X20 +

Table 3-1 WSA national digital economy level measurement indicator system

Information and communication


WDI X21 +
services export
Venture Capital Availability WEF X22 +
government efficiency WDI X23 +
Logistics Performance Index WDI X24 +
Due to missing data in some countries, 56 countries among the WSA member
states were selected for analysis, and some missing data were supplemented by
linear interpolation, and a comprehensive score measurement analysis was
conducted for these 56 countries.

3.3 Comprehensive weight calculation and measurement results

3.3.1 Combination weight

This article uses stata17.0 to calculate the entropy weight method weights of
the following indicators, and uses excel to calculate the CRTIC method weights of
the following indicators. After testing the data stability, multiplicative combination
weighting is used to calculate the final combination weight. The results are as

-14-
shown in Table 3- 2 shown:

Table 3-2 WSA national digital economy level entropy weight method and
CRITIC method combination weight results

First level Secondary


Level three indicators variable Weights
indicator indicators
Number of mobile network users X1 0.0133
Landline penetration rate X2 0.0269
Fixed broadband penetration X3 0.0224
digital
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100
infrastructure X4 0.0033
people)
Secure Internet Servers (per million
X5 0.1029
people)
Scientific and technical journal articles X6 0.0802
R&D expenditure as a share of GDP X7 0.0475
Digital Share of labor force with higher
X9 0.0274
economy level education
Technological
Higher education enrollment rate X10 0.0294
innovation
ICT cutting-edge technology readiness X11 0.0261
Proportion of total education expenditure X12 0.0196
Availability of latest technology X13 0.0619
Number of ICT-related papers published X14 0.0651
Ease of doing business score X15 0.0163
digital Ease of starting a business score X16 0.0159
environment Transparency in government decision-
X17 0.0487
making

Table 3-2 WSA national digital economy level entropy weight method and
CRITIC method combination weight results
Telecom services revenue in US$ X18 0.1108
Mobile Network Revenue USD X19 0.1095
ICT service export X20 0.0488
Information and communication services
X21 0.0161
export
Venture Capital Availability X22 0.0396
government efficiency X23 0.0064
Logistics Performance Index X24 0.0620

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3.3.2 WSA comprehensive score of national digital economy level

Based on the weight of the entropy method and the multiplicative weighted
combination of the CRITIC method, the digital economy-related data of WSA
member countries from 2010 to 2022 can be calculated to calculate the
comprehensive score of the digital economy level of each country. From a national
perspective, vertically, The top five are the United States, my country, Japan,
Germany and South Korea, with comprehensive scores of 10.971, 10.538, 10.410,
9.906 and 9.905 respectively; the bottom five are North Macedonia, Moldova,
Turkey, Iran and Cuba, with comprehensive scores of 7.767 and 7.708 respectively. ,
3.563, 3.536, 2.146, the data showed a cliff-like decline, and the difference between
the highest and lowest scores was about 5 times. It can be seen that the development
of the digital economy in WSA countries is uneven and there is a trend of
polarization.
In order to further analyze the scores of countries with different levels of
development and their digital economy development levels, WSA countries were
divided into developed and developing countries, and their digital economy
comprehensive average values from 2010 to 2022 were plotted.

Figure 3-1 Average digital economy scores of developed and developing


WSA countries in China

As can be seen from the figure, the overall development level of the digital
economy is relatively stable. There is always a large gap between developed
countries and developing countries. Developed countries have stabilized at a level
of around 9.3, while developing countries have stabilized at a level of around 8.4.

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4 Measurement of low-carbon development of the steel
industry

4.1 Sample selection and data sources

Based on the research of scholars such as Ding Tao et al[35]and Ding Yumei et
al[36], this article takes the low-carbon development of the steel industry as the main
indicator, from the energy consumption level, emission level and Starting from
three secondary indicators of green technology, five third-level indicators were
selected to measure the low-carbon development level of the steel industry. The
specific indicators are shown in Table 4-1.

Table 4-1 WSA national low-carbon economic level measurement indicator


system
First level Secondary
Level three indicators variable direction
indicator indicators
energy Total steel industry energy
Y1 -
consumption consumption
Low-carbon level Energy consumption per ton of steel Y2 -
development
Emission Total steel industry carbon emissions Y3 -
level of the steel
levels tons of steel CO2 Y4 -
industry
green
Continuous casting ratio Y5 +
technology
In the indicator system constructed in this article, total energy consumption
and total carbon emissions come from the International Energy Agency (IEA), and
crude steel production and continuous casting ratio come from the yearbook
published by the World Steel Association WSA. Due to the lack of data in some
countries, 56 of them were selected. The country conducts analysis and uses linear
interpolation to supplement some missing data. The 56 countries are measured
according to developing countries and developed countries.

4.2 Comprehensive weight calculation and measurement results

4.2.1 Combination weight

This article uses stata17.0 to calculate the entropy weight method of the five
indicators, and uses excel to calculate the weight of the CRTIC method of the five
indicators. After testing the data stability, multiplicative combination weighting is
used to calculate the final combination weight. The results are shown in the table
-17-
As shown in 4-2;

Table 4-2 WSA national low-carbon development level combined weight


results of entropy weight method and CRITIC method
First level Secondary
Level three indicators variable Weights
indicator indicators
energy Total steel industry energy
Y1 0.0341-
consumption consumption
Low-carbon level Energy consumption per ton of steel Y2 0.0197
development
Emission Total steel industry carbon emissions Y3 0.0473
level of the steel
levels tons of steel CO2 Y4 0.0456
industry
green
Continuous casting ratio Y5 0.8526
technology

4.2.2 Analysis of low-carbon level of WSA national steel industry

According to the weight of the combination of weights, the low-carbon related


data of the steel industry of WSA member countries from 2010 to 2022 is measured;
from a time perspective, the low-carbon economy score of Egypt's steel industry in
2010 was 2.489, and the low-carbon economy score of the steel industry in 2016
was 2.489. The economy grew to 3.063, a month-on-month increase of 23%. This
may be related to Egypt’s 2014 release of the “2035 Comprehensive Sustainable
Energy Strategy”, the “Renewable Energy Law”, and the new “Electricity Law” to
promote renewable energy policies and reduce carbon emissions;
From a country perspective, the top five countries with comprehensive scores
are Belarus, Croatia, Bulgaria, Greece and Pakistan, with comprehensive scores of
5.294, 4.601, 4.481, 4.232, and 4.086; while the five countries with the lowest
scores are India, The comprehensive scores of Cuba, Sadovar, the United States and
Moldova are 2.099, 1.998, 1.979, 1.970, and 1.883 respectively. The low-carbon
development level of the steel industry between the first and last countries is about
two times, which is a large gap.
Generally speaking, as the countries with the highest total steel output in 2024,
my country, India, Japan, the United States, and Russia all have low low-carbon
development levels in the steel industry, ranking in the bottom 16.

In order to further analyze the scores of countries with different levels of


development in terms of low-carbon development of the steel industry, Figure 4-1
was drawn to show the average scores of developed and developing countries from
2010 to 2022.

-18-
Figure 4-1 WSA national steel industry low-carbon development level
scores

As shown in Figure 4-1, the low-carbon development of the steel industry in


WSA countries is relatively stable. Among them, developing countries have a slow
growth trend from 2010 to 2018, and fluctuate from 2018 to 2022; the low-carbon
steel industry in developed countries The development score declined slowly from
2010 to 2020, rebounded slightly in 2021 and then declined rapidly; overall, the
low-carbon levels of the steel industry in developing countries and developed
countries have been equal at the beginning, and the gap has gradually widened.

-19-
5 Empirical research on digital economy empowering low-
carbon development of the steel industry

This article constructs a PVAR model between the digital economy and the
low-carbon level of the steel industry, and analyzes the relationship between the
digital economy and the low-carbon level of the steel industry.

5.1 Panel vector autoregressive model

The panel vector autoregression model can analyze the inherent influence
relationship between variables, estimate the degree of influence of variables by time
series and random interference[37], reduce the error impact of the model, and make
the empirical results more robust and The accuracy has been improved. The text
refers to the practices of scholars such as Wu Jiaxu[38]and Zuo Pengfei[39]to obtain
the general form of the panel vector autoregressive model:
𝑌𝑖,𝑡 = Γ𝑋𝑖,𝑡 + 𝛾𝑡 + 𝜇𝑖 + 𝜀𝑖𝑡 (5-1)
The total number of observation periods is T,𝑋𝑖,𝑡 is the explained variable,𝑌𝑖,𝑡 is
the explanatory variable, and the parametersΓis the k*1-dimensional coefficient
vector of𝑋𝑖,𝑡 ,𝑋𝑖,𝑡 is the explanatory variable of the T*K order of the lag term Matrix,
k is the number of explanatory variables,𝜇𝑖 is the individual effect,𝛾𝑡 is the time
effect,𝜀𝑖𝑡 is a distractor;
(1) Average data of each section
𝑌̅𝑖,𝑡 = Γ𝑋̅𝑖,𝑡 + 𝜇̅𝑖 + 𝛾̅𝑡 + 𝜀̅𝑖𝑡 (5-2)
(2) After eliminating the time effect
𝑌̃𝑖,𝑡 = Γ𝑋̃𝑖,𝑡 + 𝜇̃𝑖 + 𝛾̃𝑡 + 𝜀𝑖 (5-3)
Among them, 𝑌̃𝑖𝑡 = 𝑌𝑖𝑡 − 𝑌̅𝑖𝑡 , 𝑋̃𝑖𝑡 = 𝑋𝑖𝑡 − 𝑋̅𝑖𝑡 , 𝜇̃𝑖𝑡 = 𝜇𝑖𝑡 − 𝜇̅𝑖𝑡 , 𝛾̃𝑖𝑡 = 𝛾𝑖𝑡 −
𝛾̅𝑖𝑡 , 𝜀̃𝑖𝑡 = 𝜀𝑖𝑡 − 𝜀̅𝑖𝑡 .
(3) After eliminating individual effects
𝑌̅𝑖𝑡 = 𝑋̅𝑖𝑡 + 𝜇̅̅𝑖 + 𝜀̅𝑖𝑡̅ (5-4)
Available:
𝑌̌𝑖𝑡 = Γ𝑋̌𝑖𝑡 + 𝜀̌𝑖𝑡 (5-5)

5.2 LLC stationarity test

In order to test the timeliness of the conclusion and avoid "pseudo-


regression" and "pseudo-correlation", it is necessary to conduct stationarity testing
on the sample data. Common testing methods mainly include LLC test, PP test,
IPS test, ADF test, etc.; due to the consideration of LLC test The relationship
-20-
between model selection and data generation mechanism is reached, and it is
suitable for large sample size data[40]. Therefore, this article uses the LLC test,
assuming that there is no cross-sectional correlation, and the model is:
p
Δyi,t = 𝛼yi,t−1 + ∑j=1 𝛽i,t−j Δyi,t−j + xi,t 𝛿 + 𝜇i,t (5-6)
The first step is to perform regression analysis onyi,t on𝐲𝐢,𝐭−𝐣 andxi,t . Among
them, the estimated values are(𝛽̂ , 𝛿̂ )and(𝛽̅ , 𝛿 ̅);
p
Δy̅i,t = Δyi,t − ∑j=1 𝛽̂i,t−j Δyi,t−j − xi,t 𝛿̂ (5-7)
p ̅ Δyi,t−j − xi,t 𝛿 ̅(5-8)
y̅i,t−1 = yi,t−1 − ∑j=1 𝛽i,t−j
The second step is to standardize the data;
̃i,t
y
Δỹi,t = (5-9)
si
¯
yi,t−1
ỹi,t−1 = (5-10)
si

In the third step, after performing regression analysis, we get𝛼


Δỹi,t = ỹi,t−1 + yi,t (5-11)
By processing the T statistic, we get:
̂ −2 𝑆𝑒(𝛼
𝑡𝛼 −(𝑁𝑇̃ )𝑆𝑁 𝛿 ̂ )𝜇 ∗ 𝑚𝑇̃
𝑡𝛼∗ = ∼ 𝑁(0,1)(5-12)
𝛼∗ 𝑚𝑇̃
The LLC inspection results of this article are shown in Table 5-1:

Table 5-1 LLC test results of each variable


variable T value P value test results
X1 -8.955 0.0021 pass
X2 -9.681 0.0000 pass
X3 -21.932 0.0000 pass
x -15.688 0.0000 pass
y -10.072 0.0395 pass
According to the test results, the P values of x1, x2, x3, x, and y are all
significant at the 5% level, so the null hypothesis is rejected and all pass the LLC
test, and a panel vector autoregressive model can be constructed;

5.3 Analysis of empirical results

This paper establishes a panel vector autoregressive model between the digital
economy and the low-carbon level of the steel industry to analyze the dynamic
impact of the digital economy on the low-carbon development of the steel industry.

-21-
5.3.1 Selection of lag order

Before performing system generalized moment estimation on the data, it is


necessary to clarify the lag order of the model, determine the form of the panel
vector autoregressive model based on the lag order, and use AIC, BIC, and HQIC
to determine the lag order according to the program operation method of Teacher
Chen Yujun;
(1) AIC Criterion (Akaike Information Criterion)
𝐴𝐼𝐶 = 2𝑘 − 2𝑙𝑛(𝐿)(5-13)
(2) BIC Criterion (Bayesian Information Criterion)
𝐵𝐼𝐶 = 𝑘𝑙𝑛(𝑛) − 2𝑙𝑛(𝐿)(5-14)
(3) HQIC Criterion (Hannan-quinn Criterion)
𝐻𝑄 = −2𝑙𝑛(𝐿) + 𝑙𝑛(𝑙𝑛(𝑛)) ∗ 𝑘(5-15)
Among them, L is the maximum likelihood under the model, n is the number
of data, and k is the number of variables in the model; the results calculated using
the three living conditions are shown in Table 5-2. The values of the three criteria
are lagged The minimum value is obtained in the third period and the fourth lag
period. Based on the test results, a panel vector autoregressive model of the digital
economy and the low-carbon level of the steel industry is constructed with a lag of
fourth order;

Table 5-2 Lag order analysis results

5.3.2 System generalized moment estimation

Blundell and Bond proposed system GMM, which mainly combines the
advantages of differential GMM and horizontal GMM estimation[41]. When the
number of moment conditions is greater than the number of parameters, the distance
function (moment two) is solved. subtype), this method can effectively overcome
the endogenous problem caused by the lag term and the weak instrumental variable
problem[42]. The results of generalized moment estimation of the digital economy
and low-carbon development of the steel industry are shown in Table 5-3:

Table 5-3 GMM estimation results of digital economy and low-carbon


development
From the perspective of the current low-carbon economy of the steel industry,
the low-carbon level of the steel industry with one lag, the digital economy level
with four lags, and the low-carbon level of the steel industry with four lags are

-22-
significant at the 5% and 1% levels of significance respectively. From the
coefficient point of view, the digital economy coefficient of 0.256 lagged four
periods is greater than the coefficient 0.043 of the low-carbon level of the steel
industry lagged four periods, indicating that the impact of the digital economy
lagged four periods on the low-carbon economy of the current steel industry is
greater than that of steel lagged four periods. The impact of industrial low-carbon
economy on the current low-carbon economy of the steel industry.
In terms of the digital economy of the current period, only the digital economy
lagged one period is significant at the 1% level, and its coefficient is 0.490,
indicating that the digital economy lagged one period has an impact on the digital
economy of the current period. As the number of periods increases, Its influence on
itself gradually weakens and is no longer trusted.
To sum up, it can be seen from the system generalized moment estimation
results that the digital economy has a promoting effect on the low-carbon economy
of the steel industry, which is greater than the promoting effect of the low-carbon
development of the steel industry itself; while the impact of the steel industry on
the digital economy is not significant; Among them, the steel industry and the
digital economy both promote their own development.

5.3.3 Granger causality test

Clive Granger proposed the Granger causality test in 2003[43], which is a


method for analyzing the causal relationship of time series data. The basic idea is
that while controlling the explained variables, If the lagged term of the explanatory
variable still helps explain the changes in the current value of the explanatory
variable, it is considered that the explanatory variable has a causal relationship with
the explained variable;

Table 5-4 Granger test results of digital economy and low-carbon


development
The Granger causality experiment shows that the digital economy has a
significant impact on the low-carbon development of the steel industry at the 1%
level, indicating that the digital economy has empowering significance for the low-
carbon development of the steel industry and that there is Granger causality.

5.3.4 Impulse response analysis

Impulse response is mostly used to study the dynamic relationship between


variables. The impulse response analysis of the digital economy and the low-carbon
level of the steel industry is shown in the figure below. Among them, the number
-23-
of simulation periods from 1 to 10 is the abscissa, and the response variable is
related to the impact variable. degree of response;

Figure 5-1 Impulse response diagram of digital economy and low-carbon


development

The left picture in the first row shows the impact of the digital economy's
disturbance on itself. It can be seen from this figure that the digital economy will
have a significant positive impact on itself. However, as the number of periods
increases, the impact gradually weakens. And it converges to 0, indicating that the
digital economy alignment itself has a significant positive promotion effect.
The picture on the right of the first row shows the impact of the low-carbon
level of the steel industry on the digital economy. The impact of the steel industry
on the digital economy in the first period is 0. The value of the impact of the steel
industry on the digital economy in periods 1-6 is distributed around 0, which cannot
explain the low carbon level of the steel industry. Regarding the impact of carbon
development on the digital economy, this result is mutually verified with the results
obtained by GMM estimation;
The left picture in the second row shows the impact of the disturbance of the
digital economy on the low-carbon level of the steel industry. From the pulse chart,
it can be seen that in the first two periods, the digital economy had a greater impact
on the low-carbon development of the steel industry, but in 0 The value fluctuates
up and down, and gradually converges to zero in about 6 periods;
The right picture in the second row shows the impact of perturbations on the
low-carbon level of the steel industry on itself. It can be seen from the impulse
response diagram that the impact from the outside will first have a significant
impact on its own low-carbon level, but then the effect gradually weakens.
Convergence to zero at approximately period 6;
In summary, through impulse response analysis, it can be seen that the digital
economy has an empowering effect on the low-carbon development of the steel
industry. It will have a greater impact in the early stage, and in the long term the
effect will weaken and converge to zero; the level of low-carbon development of
the steel industry has an impact on The impact of the digital economy is not
significant. The digital economy and the low-carbon development level of the steel
industry have a certain promoting effect on themselves.

-24-
5.3.5 Variance decomposition

In order to study the impact of the digital economy on the low-carbon level of
the steel industry, five-period variance decomposition was used. The results are
shown in Table 5-5:

Table 5-5 Variance decomposition results


Judging from the variance explanation rate of the digital economy, the
explanation rate ranged from 100% in the first period to 94.6% in the fifth period.
The impact of the digital economy on itself has been relatively stable and
maintained at a high value, indicating that the digital economy is developing on its
own main factors
Judging from the variance explanation rate of low-carbon development in the
steel industry, the explanation rate decreases rapidly, from 100% in the first period
to 75.8% in the fifth period. The biggest factor in the low-carbon development of
the steel industry is itself, but relative to the figures Economically speaking, the
low-carbon development of the steel industry is less affected by itself;
Judging from the variance explanation rate of the digital economy for the low-
carbon development of the steel industry, it increased from 18.9% in the second
period to 24.2% in the fifth period. The explanation rate grew rapidly in the early
period and stabilized in the later period, indicating that the digital economy has an
important impact on the steel industry. Industrial low-carbon development has a
time lag effect.
Judging from the variance explanation rate of the low-carbon level of the steel
industry on the digital economy, the explanation rate increased slowly in the first
four periods and remained stable in the fourth and fifth periods, indicating that the
low-carbon development of the steel industry has a small impact on the digital
economy. The biggest influencing factor of economic development is itself.
In summary, through variance decomposition, it can be seen that the impact of
the digital economy on the low-carbon development of the steel industry has a time
lag effect, providing a relatively stable boost to low-carbon development. The
digital economy and the low-carbon level of the steel industry explain themselves
far more than other variables, indicating that both have strong self-reinforcing
mechanisms.

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5.4 The driving effect of digital infrastructure on the low-carbon
development of the steel industry

Establish a panel vector autoregressive model for digital infrastructure and the
low-carbon development of the steel industry, conduct optimal order selection,
system generalized moment estimation, Granger test, impulse response analysis and
variance test, and analyze in detail the impact of digital infrastructure on the low-
carbon development of the steel industry. The driving effect of carbon development.

5.4.1 Optimal lag order selection

Table 5-6 Lag order results


The structure calculated according to the three criteria of AIC, BIC, and HQIC
is shown in Table 5-6. The values of the three criteria obtain the minimum value at
the first and second orders respectively. According to the test results, the digital
infrastructure and steel constructed in this article The panel vector autoregressive
model of industrial low-carbon development is lagged by one order.

5.4.2 System generalized moment estimation

The structure of systematic generalized moment estimation for digital


infrastructure and steel industry low-carbon level differential data is shown in Table
5-7:

Table 5-7 GMM estimation results of digital infrastructure and low-


carbon development of the steel industry
Taking digital infrastructure as the explained variable, the digital economy with
a lag of one period has a significant impact on itself, that is, the digital economy
has a strong ability to promote itself in the early stage. The low-carbon level of the
steel industry that lags one period has no significant impact on the digital economy,
and it does not mean that the low-carbon development of the steel industry can
promote the digital economy.
Taking the low-carbon development of the steel industry as the explained
variable, the impact of digital infrastructure lagged one period is significant at the
1% level, with a coefficient as high as 1.176, indicating that the construction of
digital infrastructure can have a significant positive impact on the low-carbon
development of the steel industry. Influence. The impact of low-carbon
development on the steel industry is not significant.

-26-
To sum up, digital infrastructure has a significant positive impact on the steel
industry, while the impact of low-carbon development of the steel industry on
digital infrastructure is not significant.

5.4.3 Granger causality test

Table 5-8 GMM estimation results of digital infrastructure and low-


carbon development of the steel industry
The Granger causality experiment shows that digital infrastructure has a
significant impact on the low-carbon development of the steel industry at the 1%
level, indicating that digital infrastructure has enabling significance for the low-
carbon development of the steel industry and that there is Granger causality.

5.4.4 Impulse response analysis

Figure 5-2 Impulse response diagram of digital infrastructure and low-


carbon development

The left figure in the first row shows the impact of digital infrastructure's
disturbance alignment on itself. It can be seen from this figure that digital
infrastructure will have a significant positive impact on itself and will last for a
longer period. The impact gradually weakens and converges to 0 around the eighth
period, indicating that digital infrastructure has a significant and long-term positive
promoting effect on itself.
The right picture in the first row shows the impact of the low-carbon level of
the steel industry on digital infrastructure. The impact of the steel industry on digital
infrastructure in the first period 1-6 is distributed around 0, which cannot explain
the low-carbon level of the steel industry. Regarding the impact of development on
digital infrastructure, this result is also mutually verified with the results obtained
by GMM estimation;
The left picture in the second row shows the impact of digital infrastructure
disturbance on the low-carbon level of the steel industry. In periods 0-1, the impact
of digital infrastructure on the low-carbon development of the steel industry
gradually increased, reaching a peak in the first period, and It gradually fell back in
periods 2-6 and gradually converged to zero in about period 6, indicating that digital
infrastructure has a significant positive effect on the low-carbon development of the
steel industry;

-27-
The right picture in the second row shows the impact of perturbations on the
low-carbon level of the steel industry on itself. It can be seen from the impulse
response diagram that the impact from the outside will first have a significant
impact on its own low-carbon level, but then the effect gradually weakens.
Convergence to zero at approximately period 6;
In summary, through impulse response analysis, it can be seen that digital
infrastructure has an enabling effect on the low-carbon development of the steel
industry, reaching a peak in the first period, and the effect weakens but is still
significant in the long term; the low-carbon development level of the steel industry
has an impact on the digital The impact of infrastructure is not significant. Both
digital infrastructure and the low-carbon development level of the steel industry
have a certain promoting effect on itself.

5.4.5 Variance decomposition

In order to study the impact of digital infrastructure on the low-carbon level of


the steel industry, five-period variance decomposition was used. The results are
shown in Table 5-9:

Table 5-9 Variance decomposition results


Judging from the variance explanation rate of digital infrastructure, the
explanation rate ranged from 100% in the first period to 58.9% in the fifth period.
Digital infrastructure had a greater impact on itself in the early stage, and the decline
rate was relatively stable, indicating that digital infrastructure In the first five
periods, it will have a relatively stable promotion effect on itself.
Judging from the variance explanation rate of the low-carbon development of
the steel industry, the explanation rate is relatively stable, from 91% in the first
period to 82.4% in the fifth period, indicating that the biggest factor in the low-
carbon development of the steel industry is itself, and it has always remained
relatively stable. stable impact magnitude;
Judging from the variance explanation rate of digital infrastructure for the low-
carbon development of the steel industry, it increased from 9% in the first period to
17.6% in the fifth period. The explanation rate was low in the early period and
gradually increased in the later period, indicating that digital infrastructure has a
significant impact on the steel industry. Low-carbon development has a time lag
effect and is relatively slow to boost the low-carbon development of the steel
industry.
Judging from the variance explanation rate of the low-carbon level of the steel
industry on digital infrastructure, the explanation rate gradually increased from 0%

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in the initial period to 41.1% in the fifth period, indicating that the low-carbon
development of the steel industry has a certain impact on digital infrastructure.
In summary, through variance decomposition, it can be seen that the impact of
digital infrastructure on the low-carbon development of the steel industry has a time
lag effect, and can provide a relatively stable boost to low-carbon development in
the later stages of development. The low-carbon development of the steel industry
also has an impact on the digital infrastructure. Have a certain impact. The
explanation rates of digital infrastructure and the low-carbon level of the steel
industry are higher than other variables, indicating that both have strong self-
reinforcing mechanisms.

5.5 The driving effect of technological innovation on the low-carbon


development of the steel industry

Construct a panel vector autoregressive model for technological innovation and


low-carbon development of the steel industry, conduct optimal order selection,
system generalized moment estimation, impulse response analysis and variance
decomposition, and analyze in detail the role of technological innovation in
promoting the low-carbon development of the steel industry.

5.5.1 Determination of the optimal lag order

The results in Table 5-10 are calculated using three criteria: AIC, BIC, and
HQIC. The three criteria all achieve minimum values at one lag period. According
to the test results, this article constructs a panel vector autoregression of
technological innovation on the low-carbon level of the steel industry. The model
is lagged one order.

Table 5-10 Lag order results

5.5.2 System generalized moment estimation

The results of systematic generalized moment estimation of technological


innovation and low-carbon level of the steel industry are shown in the following
table:

Table 5-11 GMM estimation results of technological innovation and low-


carbon development of the steel industry
Taking the technological innovation of the current period as the explained
variable, the influence of technological innovation lagged by one period on itself is
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not significant. It may be that the number of lag periods is small and its effect on
itself is not obvious yet. The impact of low-carbon development in the iron and steel
industry on technological innovation, lagged by one period, is not significant, and
there is no significant impact from the coefficient point of view, indicating that both
low-carbon development and technological innovation in the iron and steel industry
have no significant impact on technological innovation in the short term.
Taking the low-carbon level of the steel industry in the current period as the
explained variable and the technological innovation lagged by one period as the
explanatory variable, from the p-value point of view, it is significant at the 1% level;
from the coefficient point of view, technological innovation has a significant impact
on the low-carbon development of the steel industry. The coefficient of is 7.384,
indicating that its impact is significant and has a large impact. Taking the low-
carbon development of the steel industry lagged by one period as an explanatory
variable, its p-value is not significant. Maybe the number of lagged periods is small,
and its promoting effect on itself is still not obvious.
In summary, from the systematic generalized moment estimation of
technological innovation on the low-carbon level of the steel industry, it can be seen
that technological innovation has a significant positive effect on the low-carbon
development of the steel industry.

5.5.3 Impulse response analysis

Figure 5-3 Impulse response diagram of technological innovation and


low-carbon development

The left figure in the first row shows the impact of the disturbance alignment
of technological innovation on itself. It can be seen from this figure that
technological innovation will have a significant positive impact on itself in the
initial stage, and the impact will gradually weaken in the second period. And it
converged to 0 in the eighth period, indicating that digital infrastructure has a
significant positive promotion effect on itself.
The right picture in the first row shows the impact of the low-carbon level of
the steel industry on technological innovation. The impact of the steel industry on
technological innovation in the first period is 0, and periods 1-6 are distributed
around the 0 value, which cannot explain the steel industry. Regarding the impact
of low-carbon development on technological innovation, this result is also mutually
verified with the results obtained by GMM estimation;

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The left figure in the second row shows the impact of technological innovation
disturbances on the low-carbon level of the steel industry. The impact of digital
infrastructure on the low-carbon development of the steel industry gradually
increased in periods 0-1, reaching a peak in the first period, and peaking in the
second period. -It gradually fell back in period 6 and gradually converged to zero
in about period 6, indicating that technological innovation has a significant positive
effect on the low-carbon development of the steel industry;
The right picture in the second row shows the impact of perturbations on the
low-carbon level of the steel industry on itself. It can be seen from the impulse
response diagram that the impact from the outside will first have a significant
impact on its own low-carbon level in the initial stage, but the subsequent effects It
gradually weakens and converges to zero in about the 6th period;
In summary, through impulse response analysis, it can be seen that
technological innovation has an empowering effect on the low-carbon development
of the steel industry, reaching a peak in the first period, indicating that technological
innovation can promote the low-carbon development of the steel industry; and the
low-carbon development level of the steel industry has an impact on the low-carbon
development of the steel industry. The impact of technological innovation is not
significant; both digital infrastructure and the low-carbon development level of the
steel industry have a certain promoting effect on themselves.

5.5.4 Variance decomposition

In order to study the impact of technological innovation on the low-carbon level


of the steel industry, five-period variance decomposition was used. The results are
shown in Table 5-12:

Table 5-12 Variance decomposition results


Judging from the variance explanation rate of technological innovation, the
explanation rate ranges from 100% in the first period to 4% in the fifth period.
Technological innovation has a greater impact on itself in the early stage, but it
declines rapidly, indicating that technological innovation is in the early stages of
development. main factor in its own development.
Judging from the variance explanation rate of the low-carbon development of
the steel industry, the explanation rate is relatively stable, from 100% in the first
period to 99.9% in the fifth period. The biggest factor in the low-carbon
development of the steel industry is itself, and it has always remained relatively
stable. the magnitude of the impact;

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Judging from the variance explanation rate of technological innovation on the
low-carbon development of the steel industry, it increased from 30.4% in the second
period to 96% in the fifth period. The explanation rate was low in the early period
and grew rapidly in the later period, indicating that technological innovation has a
low impact on the steel industry. Carbon development has a time lag effect.
Judging from the variance explanation rate of the low-carbon level of the steel
industry on technological innovation, the explanation rate has remained stable at
around 0.1% in these five periods, indicating that the low-carbon development of
the steel industry has a small impact on technological innovation.
In summary, through variance decomposition, it can be seen that the impact of
technological innovation on the low-carbon development of the steel industry has a
time lag effect, and it can provide relatively stable assistance for low-carbon
development in the later stages of development. The explanation rates of
technological innovation and the low-carbon level of the steel industry are higher
than other variables, indicating that both have strong self-reinforcing mechanisms.

5.6 The driving effect of digital environment on the low-carbon


development of the steel industry

Construct a panel vector autoregressive model for the digital environment and
low-carbon development of the steel industry, conduct optimal order selection,
system generalized moment estimation, and analyze in detail the role of the digital
environment in promoting the low-carbon development of the steel industry.

5.6.1 Determination of the optimal lag order

The results in Table 5-13 are calculated using three criteria: AIC, BIC, and
HQIC. All three criteria achieve minimum values at one lag period. According to
the test results, the digital environment constructed in this article has a panel vector
autoregression on the low-carbon level of the steel industry. The model is lagged
one order.

Table 5-13 Lag order results

5.6.2 System generalized moment estimation

The results of systematic generalized moment estimation for the digital


environment and low-carbon development of the steel industry are shown in Table
5-14:

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Table 5-14 GMM estimation results of digital environment and low-carbon
development of the steel industry
Taking the digital environment of the current period as the explained variable,
the influence of the digital environment lagged one period on itself is significant at
a p-value of 1%, and the coefficient is 0.757, indicating that the digital environment
can have a significant impact on itself in a relatively short period of time. It has a
positive promotion effect; while the low-carbon development of the steel industry
that lags one period has no significant impact on the digital environment, and there
is no significant impact from the coefficient point of view, indicating that the low-
carbon development of the steel industry has no significant impact on the digital
environment in the short term.
Taking the low-carbon level of the steel industry in the current period as the
explained variable and the digital environment lagged one period as the explanatory
variable, from the p-value point of view, it is significant at the 5% level, but its
coefficient is 0.027, indicating that the digital environment has a significant impact
on the steel industry. The low-carbon level has a small impact; taking the one-period
lagged low-carbon development of the steel industry as an explanatory variable,
from the p-value point of view, it is significant at the 1% level, with a coefficient
of 0.971, indicating that it has an impact on the low-carbon development of the steel
industry itself. Development has a significant positive impact.
To sum up, from the systematic generalized moment estimation of the low-
carbon level of the steel industry by the digital environment, it can be seen that the
digital environment has a small promotion effect on the low-carbon development
of the steel industry. Both the digital environment and the low-carbon development
of the steel industry have their own effects. It has a more obvious promoting effect.

5.6.3 Impulse response analysis

Figure 5-4 Impulse response diagram of digital environment and low-


carbon development

The left picture in the first row shows the impact of the digital environment's
disturbance on itself. It can be seen from this figure that the digital environment
will have a significant positive impact on itself in the initial stage, and the impact
will gradually weaken in the second period. And it converged to 0 in the fifth period,
indicating that the digital environment has a significant positive promoting effect
on itself.

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The right picture in the first row shows the impact of the low-carbon level of
the steel industry on the digital environment. The impact of the steel industry on
technological innovation in the first period is 0, and periods 1-6 are distributed
around the 0 value, which cannot explain the steel industry. Regarding the impact
of low-carbon development on the digital environment, this result is also mutually
verified with the results obtained by GMM estimation;
The left picture in the second row shows the impact of the disturbance of the
digital environment on the low-carbon level of the steel industry. In period 0-1, the
digital environment has a certain impact on the low-carbon development of the steel
industry, but it fluctuates around the 0 value. It gradually fell back in periods 2-6
and gradually converged to zero in about period 6, indicating that technological
innovation has a greater impact on the low-carbon development of the steel industry;
The right picture in the second row shows the impact of the perturbation of the
low-carbon level of the steel industry on itself. It can be seen from the impulse
response diagram that it has a significant impact on its own low-carbon level in the
initial stage, but then the effect weakens rapidly. Convergence to zero in period 6;
In summary, through impulse response analysis, it can be seen that the digital
environment has a certain impact on the low-carbon development of the steel
industry, while the low-carbon development level of the steel industry has no
significant impact on the digital environment; both the digital environment and the
low-carbon development level of the steel industry have an impact on the low-
carbon development of the steel industry. It has a certain promoting effect in itself.

5.6.4 Variance decomposition

In order to study the impact of the digital environment on the low-carbon level
of the steel industry, five-period variance decomposition was used. The results are
shown in Table 5-15:

Table 5-15 Variance decomposition results


Judging from the variance explanation rate of the digital environment, the
explanation rate ranged from 100% in the first period to 18.5% in the fifth period.
The digital environment had a greater impact on itself in the early stage, and the
decline rate was relatively rapid, indicating that the digital environment would It
has a significant promotion effect on itself.
Judging from the variance explanation rate of low-carbon development in the
steel industry, the explanation rate is relatively stable, ranging from 100% in the
first period to 99.4% in the fifth period, indicating that the biggest factor in the low-

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carbon development of the steel industry is itself, and it has always remained
relatively stable. stable impact magnitude;
Judging from the variance explanation rate of the digital environment for the
low-carbon development of the steel industry, it increased from 34% in the second
period to 81.5% in the fifth period. The explanation rate was low in the early stage
and gradually increased in the later period, indicating that the digital environment
has an important impact on the low-carbon development of the steel industry.
Development has a time lag effect, and it relatively quickly promotes the low-
carbon development of the steel industry.
Judging from the variance explanation rate of the low-carbon level of the steel
industry on the digital environment, the explanation rate gradually increased from
0.1% in the second period to 0.6% in the fifth period. The explanation rate was low
and grew slowly, indicating the low-carbon development of the steel industry. It
has a certain impact on the digital environment.
In summary, through variance decomposition, it can be seen that the impact of
the digital environment on the low-carbon development of the steel industry has a
time lag effect. It can develop rapidly in the later stages of development and provide
higher assistance to low-carbon development. The low-carbon development of the
steel industry also has a positive impact on the industry. The digital environment
has certain impacts. The digital environment and the low-carbon level of the steel
industry have higher explanation rates for themselves than other variables,
indicating that both have strong self-reinforcing mechanisms.

5.7 Summary of this chapter

This article constructs a panel vector autoregressive model between the digital
economy and the low-carbon level of the steel industry, and analyzes the dynamic
relationship between the subsystems of the digital economy and the low-carbon
development of the steel industry. Three conclusions can be drawn: 1. Digital
economy It can empower the low-carbon development of the steel industry, and this
impact has a time lag effect. Its promotion effect on the steel industry will reach the
maximum in the early stage, and then the impact will gradually weaken over time;
2. Digital infrastructure, technological innovation, and digital environment It has a
significant impact on the low-carbon development of the steel industry; third,
digital infrastructure, technological innovation, digital environment and low-carbon
development all have a significant positive effect on itself.

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6Conclusion and outlook

6.1 Research conclusion

Based on previous literature, this article measures the level of the digital
economy and selects 3 secondary indicators, namely digital infrastructure,
technological innovation and digital environment. A total of 24 third-level
indicators are used to measure the WSA from 2010 to 2022. Digital economy-
related data were measured, and the entropy method and CRITIC combination
weighting method were used to obtain the digital economy scores of a total of 56
countries among WSA member states. Based on the data obtained from the
measurement, the numbers were analyzed based on the panel vector autoregressive
model. The relationship between the economy and low-carbon development of the
steel industry. Through a quantitative analysis of the dynamic relationship between
the digital economy and the low-carbon development of steel, and between the
digital economy subsystem and the steel industry, the following three conclusions
can be drawn:
(1) The digital economy can empower the low-carbon development of the steel
industry, and this impact has a time lag effect. Its promotion effect on the steel
industry will reach its maximum value in the early stage, and then the impact will
gradually weaken over time;
(2) Digital infrastructure, technological innovation, and digital environment
all have a significant impact on the low-carbon development of the steel industry;
(3) Digital infrastructure, technological innovation, digital environment and
low-carbon development all have significant positive effects on themselves.

6.2 Research prospects

This article uses WSA countries, selects relevant data from 2010 to 2022 for
analysis, measures the digital economy and the low-carbon development of the steel
industry, and studies the dynamic relationship between the two. However, this
article still has more room for enrichment, specifically See the following three
points:
(1) Since some data have not been updated yet, the research data range of this
article is from 2010 to 2022, and the research scope is WSA countries. Future
research can expand the data scope and analyze the digital economy and low-carbon
level of the steel industry through time series data. Dynamic relationship.
(2) This article only measures the digital economy from three secondary
indicators, including digital infrastructure, technological innovation, and digital
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environment. For the construction of digital economic indicators, we can consider
the scale of the digital industry, the scale of the digital market, etc. other aspects.
(3) This article considers three aspects: energy consumption level, emission
level, and green technology when measuring the low-carbon development of the
steel industry. Among them, green technology only considers one direction of
continuous casting ratio, and the construction of green technology indicators can be
supplemented in the future.

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Graduation project for undergraduates of University of Science and Technology Beijing
(thesis)

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