PROBABILITY

MATH 403 – ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

 Understand and describe sample spaces and
events for random experiments

Explain the concept of probability and its

application to different situations.

OBJECTIVES
Define and illustrate the different probability
rules

Solve for the probability of different

statistical data
PROBABILITY
▪ Probability is the likelihood or chance of an event occurring.

𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑆
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 = =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑇

Example:
▪ Dice
➢ Find the probability of showing an even number from a single roll of dice.

▪ Coin
➢ Find the probability of showing 2 Heads from a tossing the coin twice.
SAMPLE SPACE, EVENT, AND ELEMENT
▪ Sample Space
▪ is the set of all possible outcomes or results of a random experiment.
▪ is represented by letter S.
▪ Event
▪ is the subset of sample space.
▪ is represented by letter E.
▪ Element
▪ each outcome in the sample space.
▪ Null Space
▪ is a subset of the sample space that contains no elements and is denoted by the symbol Ø.
▪ also called empty space.
SAMPLE SPACE, EVENT, AND ELEMENT
Example #1:
➢ What are the possible outcomes of showing at least two heads from tossing the coin thrice?

➢ S = all possible outcomes

➢S =

➢E =
SAMPLE SPACE, EVENT, AND ELEMENT
Example #2:
➢ What are the possible outcomes of showing a sum of 7 from a single roll of a pair of dice?
➢ S = all possible outcomes
➢S

➢E =
 VENN DIAGRAM
▪ Is a rectangle (the universal set) that includes circles depicting the subsets.

A
A B

A B

C
C
S S S
 INTERSECTION OF EVENTS
▪ The intersection of two events A and B is denoted by the symbol A ∩ B.
▪ It is the event containing all elements that are common to A and B.
▪ A∩B=Ø
▪ MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

A
A B

A B

C
C
S S S
INTERSECTION OF EVENTS
Example #1:
➢ A = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}
➢ B = {2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19}

➢A ∩ B = ?
INTERSECTION OF EVENTS
Example #2:
➢ A = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9}
➢ B = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10}

➢A ∩ B = ?
 UNION OF EVENTS
▪ The Union of Events A and B is the event containing all the elements that belong to A or to B or to both and
is denoted by the symbol A ∪ B.

A
A B

A B

C
C
S S S
UNION OF EVENTS
Example #1:
➢ A = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9}
➢ B = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10}

➢A ∪ B = ?
 COMPLIMENT OF AN EVENT
▪ Compliment of an event A with respect to S is the set of all elements of S that are not in A and is denoted by
Ac.

A
A B

A B

S S S
COMPLIMENT OF AN EVENT
Example #1:
➢ S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15}
➢ A = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10}
➢ B = {1, 5, 9, 13}

➢A ∪ B = ?

➢ (A ∪ B)c = ?
Venn Diagram Shading
➢In a class of 40 students, 27 like Calculus and 25 like Chemistry. How
many like both Calculus and Chemistry?

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A survey of 100 fourth year high school students revealed that 42 like mathematics, 62 like Filipino, 44 like
History, 22 like both Math and History, 25 like both Math and Filipino, 17 like Filipino and History, and 10 like
all the three subjects. How many like Math only? Filipino only? History only? How many did not like any of
the three subjects?

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THE ADDITION PRINCIPLE
▪ If one event can occur in m different ways and a second event with no common outcomes can
occur in n different ways, then the first and second event can occur in

𝑁 = 𝑚 + 𝑛 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠

Example #1:
➢ There are 2 vegetarian entrée options and 5 meat entrée options on a dinner menu. What is the
total number of entrée options?

Example #2:
➢ A student is shopping for a new computer. He is deciding among 5 desktop computers and 4
laptop computers. What is the total number of computer options?
THE MULTIPLICATION PRINCIPLE
▪ If one event can occur in m ways and a second event can occur in n
ways after the first event has occurred, then the two events can
occur in

𝑁 = 𝑚 ⋅ 𝑛 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
▪ Also called “Fundamental Principle of Counting”

▪ For two or more events:

𝑁 = 𝑛1 ⋅ n2 ⋅ 𝑛3 ⋅ … ⋅ 𝑛𝑚
➢How many 3-digit number can be formed from the digits 1, 3, 4, 6, 7 and 9 if
each digit is to be used once.

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➢How many 4-digit numbers can be formed from the digits 0, 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, and 9 if
each digit can be used only once?

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FACTORIAL NOTATION
▪ If n is a positive integer, n factorial denoted by n! is defined as:

𝑛! = 1 ⋅ 2 ⋅ 3 ⋅ … ⋅ 𝑛

▪ Recursive formula for n!:

0! = 1

𝑛! = 𝑛 𝑛 − 1 !
PERMUTATION OF ‘n’ DIFFERENT OBJECTS, TAKEN
‘r’ AT A TIME
▪ Permutation is arrangement of a set of objects or things in a
specific or definite order.

𝑛!
𝑛𝑃𝑟 =
𝑛−𝑟 !
Where:
• n = total number of elements in a set
• r = the number of elements taken to form the arrangement
➢A locker combination system uses four digits from 0-9, How many different 4-
digit locker combinations are possible if no digits can be replaced in each
combination?

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▪ In how many ways can a IIEE chapter with 15 directors, choose a president, a vice
president, a secretary, a treasurer, and an auditor, if no member can hold more
than one position?

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➢There are four balls of four different colors. Two balls are taken at a time and
arranged in a definite order. For example, if a white and a red balls are taken, one
definite arrangement is white first, red second, and other arrangement is red
first, white second. How many such arrangements are possible?

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PERMUTATION OF ‘n’ DIFFERENT OBJECTS TAKEN
ALL AT A TIME
Formula:
𝑛𝑃𝑛 = 𝑛! ⊳ (𝑛 = 𝑟)

Example #1:
➢Find the number of different 5-letter arrangements that can be made
from the letters of the word ANGLE?
➢The number of ways can 4 nurses and 3 engineers be seated on a bench with
nurses seated together is

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PERMUTATION OF ‘n’ OBJECTS OF WHICH SOME
ARE ALIKE
▪ Permutation of n things taken “r” at a time, of which p are
alike, q are alike, s are alike, etc..

𝑛!
𝑃=
𝑛 − 𝑟 ! 𝑝! 𝑞! 𝑠! …
➢Find the number of permutation that can be formed from the word COMMITTEE.

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➢There are 3 copies each of 4 different books. In how many ways can they be
arranged on a shelf?

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RING OR CYCLIC PERMUTATION
▪ The number of ways of arranging n different things around a circle.

𝑃 = 𝑛 − 1 ! ⊳ 𝑖𝑛 𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑒

Special case:
▪ For bracelets, key rings, or any other similar set up, there are only half as many
arrangements as with other circular permutations because they can be flipped
over, thus there is no distinction between clockwise and counterclockwise order,
it is still the same arrangement.

𝑛−1 !
𝑃= ⊳ 𝑖𝑛 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒
2
RING OR CYCLIC PERMUTATION
Example #1:
➢In how many ways can 10 people be seated at a round table?
RING OR CYCLIC PERMUTATION
Example #2:
➢By stringing together 10 differently colored beads, how many
different bracelets can be made?
COMBINATION
▪ It is an arrangement of a set of objects or things where order does
not count.

𝑛!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 =
𝑛 − 𝑟 ! 𝑟!
Where:
• n = total number of elements in a set
• r = the number of elements taken to form the arrangement
➢In a certain basketball team of 12 players, how many different starting lineups
are possible?

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➢A semiconductor company will hire 7 men and 4 women. In how many ways can
the company chose from 9 men and 6 women who qualified for the position?

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COMBINATION OF ‘n’ DIFFERENT THINGS TAKEN
1, 2, 3, …, n AT A TIME
Formula:

𝐶 = 𝑛𝐶1 + 𝑛𝐶2 + 𝑛𝐶3 + ⋯ + 𝑛𝐶𝑛

or
𝐶 = 2𝑛 − 1
➢In how many ways can a manager choose one or more janitor from five equally
qualified applicants?

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➢A girl has 7 flowers, each of a different variety. How many different bouquets can
she form?

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PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
▪ Probability is the likelihood or chance of an event occurring.

𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑆
Probability of an event = =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑇

S
P(E) =
T
Note:
▪ The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1.
For Impossible Event:
▪ P(E) = 0 , means that the event cannot occur
For a Sure or Certain Event:
▪ P(E) = 1 , means that the event is sure to occur
COMPLEMENTARY PROBABILITY
▪ Probability that the event E will not happen

F Failure Outcomes
ഥ =
P E =
S + F Total Number of Possible Outcomes

ഥ =1−P E
P E
Where:
• S = number of successful outcomes
• F = number of failures
➢Find the probability of not getting a sum of seven in one roll of a pair of dice.

1 2 3 4 5 6
1
2
3
4
5
6

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➢Find the probability of not getting a sum of nine in one roll of a pair of dice.

1 2 3 4 5 6
1
2
3
4
5
6

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➢If the probability of winning a certain game is Pw = ¾, then what is the
probability of losing a game?

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➢If the probability of winning a certain game is P(E) = 2/5, then
what is the probability of losing a game?

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ODDS
▪ It is the ratio of the probability of an event’s occurring to the
probability of its not occurring:

Successful Outcomes
ODDS =
Failures
▪ In terms of probability
p
ODDS =
q
Where:
▪ p = probability of success
▪ q = probability of failure
▪q=1-p
The probability of an event that an LPA (Low Pressure Area) will
become typhoon is 0.3. Find the odds in favor of typhoon.

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PROBABILITY OF MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
▪ Two or more events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur
simultaneously or they cannot occur at the same time or they don’t
have common outcome.
P A or B = P A + P(B)

P A∪B =P A +P B
Addition Rule of Probability:
▪ The probability that a set of mutually exclusive events will happen in a
single trial is the sum of the probabilities of the separate events.

P = P 1 + P 2 + P 3 + ⋯ + P(n)
➢Find the probability of drawing an ACE or a FACE card in a
single draw from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards.

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➢In a standard deck of 52 playing cards, what is the probability of
drawing an ACE or a KING in a single draw of one card from the deck?

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➢Find the probability of drawing a number 2 or a FACE card in a single
draw from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards.

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➢The probabilities that a student will receive an A, B, C, D and E grade
are 0.35, 0.30, 0.20, 0.10 and 0.05 respectively. What is the probability
that a student will receive at least a C grade?

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➢Roll a pair of dice once. What is the probability of rolling a sum
greater than 8.
1 2 3 4 5 6
1
2
3
4
5
6

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PROBABILITY OF INCLUSIVE EVENTS

▪Two or more events are said to be inclusive, when one

or the other or both can occur. In other words, two
events are said to be inclusive if they have a common
outcome.

P A or B = P A + P B − P(A and B)

P A ∪ B = P A + P B − P(A and B)
➢Find the probability of drawing a CLUB or a FACE card in a single draw
from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards.

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➢Find the probability of drawing a CLUB or a NUMBER card in a single
draw from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards.

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➢Find the probability of drawing a HEART or a FACE card in a
single draw from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards.

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 PROBABILITY OF INDEPENDENT EVENTS

▪ Two events are independent if the occurrence or non-occurrence of

one has no effect on the probability of the occurrence of the other.
P AB = P A P B|A
P A&B = P A P B|A
P A ∩ B = P A P B|A
The notation “|” is read as “given”
Multiplication Rule of Probability (Independent Events)
▪ The probability that a set of independent events will happen is the
product of their separate probabilities.
P = P A ⋅ P B ⋅ P C ⋅ … ⋅ P(N)
➢An urn contains 6 red marbles and 4 black marbles. Two
marbles are drawn with replacement from the urn. What is the
probability that both marbles are black?

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➢An urn contains 6 red marbles and 4 black marbles. Two marbles are
drawn in succession with replacement from the urn. What is the
probability that the 1st marble is red, and the 2nd marble is black?

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➢An urn contains 5 red, 7 white, and 10 blue marbles. If three
marbles are drawn in succession with replacement, find the
probability that the marbles drawn are in the order blue, white,
and red

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➢An urn contains 8 red, 5 white, and 10 blue balls. If three balls
are drawn in succession with replacement, find the probability
that the balls drawn are in the order blue, blue, and red.

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PROBABILITY OF DEPENDENT EVENTS

▪ Two events are dependent if the occurrence or non-

occurrence of one has effect on the probability of the
occurrence of the other.
P AB = P A P B/A
P A&B = P A P B/A
P A ∩ B = P A P B/A
Multiplication Rule of Probability (Dependent Events)
▪ The probability that a set of dependent events will happen is
the product of their separate probabilities.
P = P A ⋅ P B ⋅ P C ⋅ … ⋅ P(N)
➢An urn contains 6 red marbles and 4 black marbles. Two marbles are
drawn without replacement from the urn. What is the probability that
both of the marbles are black?

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➢An urn contains 6 red marbles and 4 black marbles. Two marbles are
drawn in succession without replacement from the urn. What is the
probability that the 1st marble is red and the 2nd marble is black?

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➢An urn contains 5 red, 7 white, and 10 blue balls. If three balls are
drawn in succession without replacement, find the probability that the
balls drawn are in the order blue, white, and red.

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➢An urn contains 8 red, 5 white, and 10 blue balls. If three balls are
drawn in succession without replacement, find the probability that the
balls drawn are in the order blue, blue, and red.

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CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

▪ Given two events, A and B, if the probability of event B is

affected of the occurrence of event A, then the probability of
event B is said to be conditional to that of event A. In
general, the condition A occurs reduces the entire sample
space to the sample space of A. Mathematically,

P(A&B)
P B|A =
P(A)
➢Roll a die once. Find the probability that a number less than 4 will
come out given that the roll resulted to an odd number.

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➢Find the probability that a number less than 5 will result in a
single toss of a die given that the toss resulted is an even
number.

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➢The table below contains data from the study on vitamin C intake in children and
common cold. Find the probability that a randomly selected child from the study
developed a cold during the study given that they were taking a placebo.
Status Vitamin C Group Placebo Group Total
Children free of colds 21 11 32
Children developing 36 35 71
colds
Total 57 46 103

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➢In the House of Representatives, a certain committee is
composed of six LP’s and five UNA’s. Three of the LP’s are men,
and three of the UNA’s are men. If a man is chosen for
chairman, what is the probability that he is an LP?

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BAYES’ THEOREM
▪ (Also known as Bayes’ Rule) is a useful tool for calculating conditional
probabilities.
▪ Let E1, E2, …, En be a set of mutually exclusive events that together
form the sample space S. Let X be any event from sample space, such
that P(X)>0. Then,

P E1 ⋅ P(X|E1)
P(E1|X) =
P E1 P X E1 + P E2 P X E2 + ⋯ + P En P(X|En)
➢In a certain college, 5% of the men and 2% of the women took
engineering. Furthermore, 60% of the students are men. Now if a
student is selected at random and is found to be an engineering
student, what is the probability that the student is man?

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➢Two machines A and B produce 60% and 40% of the total numbers of
items of a factory. The percentage of the defective output of these
machines are respectively 2% and 5%. If an item is selected at random
and is found to be defective, what is the probability that the item
comes from machine A?

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➢In the recently concluded board examination, 50%, 30%, and 20% of the total
number of examinees came from Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, respectively. The
percentage of passers from Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao are 65%, 45%, and
50%, respectively. If a student is selected at random is found to be a passer, what
is the probability that the student is from Visayas?

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BINOMIAL PROBABILITY
▪ It refers to the probability that a binomial experiment results in
exactly “r” successes. Also known as Repeated Trials Probability.

P = nCr ⋅ pr ⋅ qn−r

Where:
• n = number of trials
• r = number of successes that result from a binomial experiment
• p = probability of success in every trial
• q = probability of failure in every trial
•q=1-p
➢Roll a pair of dice 10 times. Determine the probability of
having exactly 5 rolls of 7.

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➢Find the probability of getting a prime number thrice by
tossing a die 5 times

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➢If the probability that a basketball player sinks the basket at 3-
point range is 2/5, determine the probability of shooting 5 out
of 8 attempts.

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POISSON PROBABILITY
▪ The Poisson Probability that exactly “r” successes occur in a Poisson
experiment, when the mean number of successes is μ is given by the
formula:

μr ⋅ e−μ
P=
r!

Where:
• μ = average number of successes
• μ = variance of Poisson distribution
• μ = mean of the distribution
• r = exact number of successes
• e = Euler’s number = 2.71828
➢The average number of delayed flights that take place on the Cebu
International Airport on a weekday between 8:00 AM and 9:00AM is 2
delayed flights per hour. Determine the probability that no delayed
flights would occur on this airport on Monday between 8:00 AM and
9:00 AM?

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➢If there are 250 typographical errors randomly distributed in a
1000-page manuscript, find the probability that any given page
has exactly 2 errors.

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 MULTINOMIAL PROBABILITY
▪ If events E1, E2, E3, …, Ek can occur with probabilities P1, P2, P3, …, Pk,
respectively, then the probability that E1, E2, E3, …, Ek will occur r1, r2, r3, …, rk
times, respectively is

N!
P= ⋅ (p1)r1 ⋅ (p2)r2 ⋅ (p3)r3 ⋅ … ⋅ (pk)rk
r1! ⋅ r2! ⋅ r3! ⋅ … ⋅ rk !
Where:
• N = total number of selections or occurrence of events
• N = r1 + r2 + r3 + … + rk
• r = number of selections or occurrence per event
• p = probability of each event
➢Suppose we have a bowl with 22 marbles – 4 red marbles, 5 green
marbles, 6 blue marbles, and 7 yellow marbles. We randomly select 10
marbles from the bowl, with replacement. What is the probability of
selecting 1 red, 2 green, 3 blue, and 4 yellow marbles?

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➢Six cards are drawn randomly in succession from an ordinary deck of
52 playing cards with replacement. What is the probability of drawing 1
spade, 2 heart, 1 diamond, and 2 clubs?

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 HYPERGEOMETRIC PROBABILITY
▪ Suppose a population consists of N items, p which are the successes. And a
random sample drawn from that population consists of n items, r which are
successes. Then the hypergeometric probability is:

pCr ⋅ qC(n − r)
P=
NCn
Where:
• N = number of population
• p = number of successes in the population (N)
• q = number of failures in the population (N)
• n = number of sample
• r = number of successes in the sample (n)
➢Three light bulbs are chosen at random without replacement
from 15 bulbs of which 5 are defective. Find the probability
that exactly one is defective.

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➢Four persons are chosen at random from a group of 3 men, 2
women and 4 children. Find the probability that of the 4
persons selected, exactly 2 are children.

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